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“Democratic” Foreign Policy Making and the Thabo Mbeki Presidency: a Critical Study

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“DEMOCRATIC” FOREIGN POLICY MAKING AND THE THABO MBEKI PRESIDENCY: A CRITICAL STUDY By John Alan Siko submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF LITERATURE AND PHILOSOPHY in the subject AFRICAN POLITICS at the UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AFRICA SUPERVISOR: DR THABISI HOEANE MARCH 2014 Table of Contents 2 Summary 7 Key Terms 8 Declaration 9 Acknowledgements and Thanks 10 List of Acronyms 11 Chapter 1: Introduction 1.1 Introduction 14 1.2 Rationale for the Study 14 1.3 Why Examine the Mbeki Period? 17 1.4 Defining “Democratic” Decision Making in a Foreign Policy Construct 19 1.4.1 Foreign Policy Analysis as a Framework for Assessing “Democracy” in Policy Making 21 1.4.2 FPA’s Relationship with International Relations Theory 23 1.4.3 FPA as a Subset of Public Policy Studies 24 1.4.4 Limitations of FPA 25 1.5 Literature Review 26 1.6 Key Research Questions 29 1.7 Research Methodology 30 1.8 Ethical Considerations Taken Into Account 32 1.9 Challenges and Limitations of This Study 33 1.10 The Structure of the Thesis 34 1.11 Conclusion 34 Chapter 2: Analytical Framework for Assessing Foreign Policy Democratization 2.1 Introduction 36 2.2 Public Opinion as an Influence on Foreign Policy 37 2.3 Civil Society 38 2.4 The Media 39 2.5 Academics 41 2.6 Business 44 2.7 Legislatures 45 2.8 Ruling Parties 47 2.9 Government Bureaucracies 47 2.9.1 Allison’s Models 49 2.10 The Executive 50 2.11 Conclusion 53 2 Chapter 3: Narratives in South African Foreign Policy 3.1 Introduction 55 3.2 South African Foreign Policy to 1948 56 3.3 The Diplomacy of Defiance, 1948-1990 57 3.3.1 The Foreign Policy of Malan and Strijdom: The Balancing Act 58 3.3.2 Verwoerd and the Politics of Withdrawal 59 3.3.3 Vorster and the Uphill Struggle for Engagement 60 3.3.4 The PW Botha Era 63 3.3.5 Limited Outside Participation in Foreign Policy, 1948-1990 66 3.4 ANC Foreign Policy to 1990 67 3.5 The Foreign Policy of Transition: Competition and Convergence 71 3.6 The Mandela Years: All Things to All People 73 3.6.1 Principles of a Post-Apartheid Foreign Policy 73 3.6.2 The Ups and Downs of Pretoria’s Nascent African Agenda 74 3.6.3 Balancing Principles, Old Friends, and Finances 77 3.7 Mbeki and the African Agenda, 1999-2008 78 3.7.1 Deepening African Engagement 79 3.7.2 Pretoria’s Diplomacy Less Effective Beyond Africa 81 3.7.3 Zimbabwe and “Quiet” Diplomacy 82 3.8 Conclusion 86 Chapter 4: The Impact of Public Opinion and Civil Society on Foreign Policy 4.1 Introduction 87 4.2 Pre-1994 Public Apathy on Foreign Policy and Government Disinterest in Public Views 88 4.3 Civil Society’s Pre-1994 Involvement in Foreign Affairs 91 4.3.1 Influence of the Broederbond on Foreign Policy 91 4.3.2 Negligible Church Impact on Foreign Affairs 92 4.3.3 Foreign Policy and Organized Labor 93 4.4 High Hopes for Greater Public and Civil Society Impact During Transition Period 93 4.5 Public Opinion After 1994: More of the Same 94 4.6 More Active, but Similarly Powerless, Civil Society 98 4.6.1 The Church and Foreign Policy Post-1994 99 4.6.2 Influence of Tripartite Alliance Partners 100 4.6.3 The Chinese Arms Saga—Civil Society Gets It Right 105 4.7 Conclusion: Why So Weak? 106 Chapter 5: The South African Press and Foreign Policy 5.1 Introduction 109 5.2 Government-Press Relations to 1994 110 5.2.1 The Afrikaans Press and Government: Birds of a Feather 111 5.2.2 The Afrikaans Press’ Open Door to the NP Government 112 5.2.3 The Other Side of the Door: The English Press and Government 114 3 5.2.4 Operation Savannah and the Perils of Defense Coverage 115 5.2.5 The Media and Foreign Affairs Before 1994: Little Impact Up Or Down 118 5.3 The Press and Government Since 1994: All Gloves Off 120 5.3.1 Mbeki and the Press 121 5.3.2 The Foreign Affairs Freeze Out 122 5.3.3 Selling Foreign Affairs to a (Still) Disinterested Public 123 5.4 Conclusion: Press Never a Foreign Policy Player 124 Chapter 6: Academia’s Impact on South African Foreign Policy Making 6.1 Introduction 126 6.2 Academic Impact on Foreign Policy Until 1990 126 6.2.1 Key Institutional Actors 127 6.2.2 Engaging the Executive and DFA: Challenging Propositions 129 6.2.3 The Importance of Who You Are and Who You Know 131 6.2.4 Were Academics Useful for Government? 134 6.2.5 Overstating Influence: The Case of Deon Geldenhuys 135 6.3 Foreign Affairs Experts’ Newfound Influence During the Transition 137 6.3.1 The Roots of ANC-Academic Foreign Policy Interaction 137 6.3.2 Shaping a New Foreign Policy 138 6.3.3 A Time of Unprecedented Academic Impact 140 6.4 1994 and After: Back to Earth 141 6.4.1 Institutional Players, New and Old 142 6.4.2 Early Continuity, 1994-96 146 6.4.3 Limited Interaction by End of Mandela Period 147 6.4.4 Engaging the Mbeki Government 148 6.4.5 Zimbabwe: A Door Opened, Then Shut 154 6.4.6 Whose Voice Mattered, and Why? 156 6.5 Conclusion: Did Academia Matter in the Mbeki Years…or ever? 159 Chapter 7: South African Business and Foreign Policy 7.1 Introduction 161 7.2 The Origins of the South African Business Community 162 7.2.1 The Post-1948 Expansion of South African Capital Abroad 163 7.2.2 The Roots of Government’s Fraught Relationship with Business 165 7.2.3 Limited Foreign Policy Interest or Engagement 166 7.2.4 Business and PW Botha: Thwarted Foreign Policy Impact 168 7.2.5 Business Had Limited Pre-1994 Foreign Policy Impact 170 7.3 Business and Foreign Policy, 1994-2008: Frustrated Ambitions 171 7.3.1 Post-1994 Africa Expansion 171 7.3.2 Government Facilitation Efforts a Mixed Bag 173 7.3.3 The Mechanics of Government-Business Interaction 175 7.3.4 Zimbabwe Inefficacy Displays Business’s Limited Influence 180 7.4 Conclusion: No Greater Post-1994 Impact on Foreign Policy 181 4 Chapter 8: Parliament’s Impact on South African Foreign Policy 8.1 Introduction 183 8.2 Foreign Affairs Legislative Powers Before 1994 183 8.2.1 Parliament and Foreign Affairs Under the 1961 and 1983 Constitutions 184 8.2.2 In Practice, an Insignificant Foreign Policy Role 185 8.3 Parliament’s Impact on Foreign Policy Since 1994 190 8.3.1 Parliament’s Post-1994 Foreign Policy Responsibilities and Powers 190 8.3.2 The Activist PCFA Under Mandela 191 8.3.3 Parliament in the Mbeki Era: More Active But Influence Still Limited 194 8.4 Conclusion: An Impotent Parliament, Past and Present 200 Chapter 9: South Africa’s Ruling Parties and Foreign Policy 9.1 Introduction 202 9.2 The National Party and Foreign Policy 202 9.3 ANC Decision Making Structures in Exile 203 9.3.1 The Elite Nature of ANC Exile Decision Making 204 9.3.2 ANC Foreign Policy Goals and Objectives 206 9.3.3 Day-to-Day Foreign Policy Decision Making and Implementation 208 9.3.4 Thabo Mbeki and the Pragmatism of the ANC’s Foreign Policy Agenda 210 9.4 The ANC and Foreign Policy Making Since 1994 211 9.4.1 Foreign Policy Of Limited Interest Within Party 212 9.4.2 Mbeki: Still Dominant, But a Dictator? 216 9.5 Conclusion: ANC a Notable, Independent Foreign Policy Role Player 218 Chapter 10: How South African Government Departments Influence Foreign Policy 10.1 Introduction 220 10.2 The Influence of Government Departments Before 1994 220 10.2.1 Post-1948: Early Foreign Affairs Dominance 221 10.2.2 Foreign Policy Contested Terrain by 1960s 222 10.2.3 The Ascendancy of PW Botha: New Players, Similar Results 225 10.2.4 FW de Klerk: Flipping the Script 232 10.3 The Post-1994 Bureaucratic Realignment 233 10.3.1 DFA Back On Top Under Mandela, but Plagued by Problems 234 10.3.2 Moves Toward Greater Coordination (and Control) Under Mbeki 235 10.3.3 DFA’s Role Under Mbeki 238 10.3.4 Meanwhile, Defense a Minor Player 239 10.3.5 No Sub-National Influence on Foreign Policy 242 10.4 Conclusion: The Ebb and Flow of Departmental Influence 242 5 Chapter 11: The Head of State and Foreign Policy Making 11.1 Introduction 244 11.2 DF Malan (1948-1953) 245 11.3 JG Strijdom (1953-1958) 246 11.4 Hendrik Verwoerd (1958-1966) 246 11.5 John Vorster (1966-1978) 248 11.6 PW Botha (1978-1989) 250 11.7 FW De Klerk (1989-1994) 253 11.8 Nelson Mandela (1994-1999) 254 11.9 Thabo Mbeki (1999-2008) 256 11.9.1 Mbeki the Key Foreign Policy Driver 256 11.9.2 Dictator or Debater? 258 11.9.3 The Role of Mbeki’s “Kitchen Cabinet” on Foreign Policy 260 11.9.4 Mbeki’s Persuasive Style in Evidence on Zimbabwe 262 11.10 Conclusion 263 Chapter 12: Conclusion 12.1 Analysis of Actors’ Influences 265 12.2 Post-1994 Dispensation Cracks the Door to More Democracy in Foreign Policy Making, But South Africans Yet to Walk Through It 270 12.3 Areas Deserving Additional Study 272 Bibliography 274 Appendix: List of Interviews 299 6 Summary South African foreign policy is not made in a bubble; as a democracy since 1994, its outward orientation is theoretically subject to lobbying and pressure from outside groups as well as jockeying among bureaucratic entities.
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