150 The First and Only ISO 9001:2015 Certified Defence and Security Magazine in India March 2018 The Only Magazine Available On The Intranets Of IAF & BSF Volume 9 issue 06

Dialogue And Denuclearisation

Still In Search Of Direction

editor’s note

DSA is as much yours, as it is ours!

he world, being so of political developments across Political plates are shifting in the interconnected and the world that they resonate for two countries, and India must be globalised, as it is, longer, over a wider impact area, seen to be heard. And, it must there isn’t much that and ask more serious questions also be perceived to be doing happens anywhere than they answer. This is the something active. Vacating space Twhich doesn’t impact elsewhere greatest challenge facing 21st isn’t an option any more. Though, and everywhere. It isn’t simply the century society. reactions needn’t be along weather that makes the world so predictable lines of yore. interdependent, but everything India doesn’t live in isolation and else that is manmade. From is as connected globally as any Nepal and Maldives are technology, to manmade political other country. Political events in developments that come as events; each has a bearing on neighbouring countries, or far- challenges, and at the same time, the other, across the world. And away lands, are as important as provide opportunities for India the speed at which the impact they’ve ever been. Each posits to assume a role bigger than it happens is in itself staggering. So, questions, and, demands answers has hitherto played. There is the latest ghastly school shooting and attention. It behoves a global every reason to believe that both incident in Florida, USA, (one of player to have the questions ready opportunities continue to exist, the deadliest mass shootings in and the answers in advance, for closing all options is not modern US history) gets instant too. But that is easier said than really an option anymore in this analysis in India. The world that done. Not all systems are always interconnected world. Staying exists online lives seamlessly, and in place, and not all events carry engaged is always useful, smart jumps boundaries in a flash. the same traction as others. But diplomatically, politically, and then the ones that happen in the economically too, in the long run. Similar is the see-saw game of neighbourhood demand greater The goal of every policy has to stock market where if one goes scrutiny, for they also come with make India economically secure, down, it pulls the others down opportunities. vibrant, and sustainable. The too, drastically at the global level. impact of global developments And they all rise together, in a In the recent past, there is must, therefore, always be similar fashion. Such is the inter- much that has happened in the analysed as opportunities for connectivity of the world of finance. neighbourhood that deserves sustaining Indian political and But, this is also apparent in other greater focus, and which India economic policies and growth. And aspects of global life. Not least could gain from, if it plays the this is an analysis that can only be the politics and security events, game. Even as Bangladesh has done by Indians, for India. where the footprints created are sent its former prime minister far larger and deeper. Political to jail for corruption, Nepal and events cast an even longer shadow Maldives seem to be witnessing on discussions. Such is the nature upheavals of tectonic levels. Manvendra Singh

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 1 publisher’s view Development As An ISO 9001:2015 Certified Magazine Factor For Peace Volume 9 | Issue 06 | March 2018

Chairman Shyam Sunder inance rules in every aspect of human existence. In economics, as Pawan Agrawal Publisher and ceo we know it today, there are certain current expenses and there are President Urvashi J Agrawal Director Shishir Bhushan certain expenses planned for the future, which sometimes become a challenge. These challenges can be countered only with advanced Editor-in-Chief Manvendra Singh planning for such contingency expenses by keeping some buffer for Fany urgent requirement. Copy Editor Vandana Bhatia Palli In the headlong rush for the tools that facilitate the projection of raw power— Copcom & Ops both conventional as well as nuclear—nations, people and communities lose OSD Navjeet Sood sight of the truism that development is the forerunner of peace and coexistence. Graphic Designer That, it is imperative for the well-being of its people that development Amit Kumar Gaur permeates the urban/rural landscape a nation has to find a balance between Representative (J&K) security and growth. Yet, we witness on a daily basis nuclear-powered nations Salil Sharma indulging in dangerous brinkmanship. A huge arc of instability has been Correspondent (Europe) exacerbated from the northern Pacific seaboard from the Korean peninsula Dominika Cosic across the Indian Ocean littoral (India/Pakistan salient) to the nations around Production the Persian Gulf (Iran) and the Mediterranean (Israel) in which the threat of Dilshad and Dabeer use of nuclear weapons is a daily mind-boggling occurance. IT Operations Amber Sharma Having acquired nuclear weapons capability through collusion, clandestine Photographer operations and downright theft nations are using nuclear weapons to Subhash browbeat neighbours and to secure territorial aggrandisement or regime Subscriptions change. China, Pakistan, North Korea nexus, in particular, has colluded Taniya Sharma amongst themselves to sell nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems in Legal Advisor as widespread an area as Iran, Libya and South Africa. The racist regime in Deepak Gupta South Africa shut down its programme when it discovered that its demise is a foregone conclusion. To prevent the weapons falling into the hands of the Blacks, the racists destroyed their stockpile; Gaddafi of Libya hoped E-mail: (first name)@dsalert.org to curry favour with the US-led coalition by agreeing to destroy its nuclear info: [email protected] articles: [email protected] programme. He had to pay his life; Iran signed a deal with the US which subscription: [email protected] the latter is threatening to rescind. India is being threatened with terrorists online edition: [email protected] operating from behind nuclear shields. advertisement: [email protected]

Editorial and Corporate Office That development suffers, is best illustrated by the North Korea/South Prabhat Prakashan Tower Korea comparison. The fruits of development appear to have bypassed 4/19, Asaf Ali Road North Korea while South Korea is a bustling outward-bound economy. New Delhi-110002 (India) South Korea may not possess the nuclear weapons but it has developed a +91-011-23243999, 23287999, 9958382999 [email protected] | www.dsalert.org lot in the other fields.

Disclaimer The Winter Olympics has become occasion for both Koreas to bury the All rights reserved. Reproduction and translation in any language in whole or in hatchet and seek out avenues of cooperation and peaceful coexistence. The part by any means without permission from world is waiting with bated breath. Defence and Security Alert is prohibited. Opinions expressed are those of the individual writers and do not necessarily reflect those of In this edition, DSA has decided to change its format, dear readers. You the publisher and/or editors. All disputes are subject to jurisdiction of Delhi Courts. will find more assorted contents in each edition covering defence, security and world affairs to keep you updated about swift-changing national and international developments. We remain committed to a research-based Defence and Security Alert is printed, published and owned by Pawan Agrawal excellent content in each edition we publish. and printed at Bosco Society For Printing, Don Bosco Technical Institute, Okhla Road, New Delhi-110025 and Happy reading! published at 4/19, Asaf Ali Road, New Delhi (India). Editor: Manvendra Singh

Pawan Agrawal 2 March 2018 DefenceDefence ANDAND securitysecurity alalertert contents

An ISO 9001:2015 Certified Magazine

India Moment At Hand 04 Lt Gen Kamal Davar (Retd)

The Leopard Will Not Change Its Spots 11 Arvind Gupta & Prateek Joshi

Can It Be Sustained? 14 Dr. Rajiv Nayan Still In Search Of Direction 18 Amit Cowshish

Aerospace Unlimited 24 Air Marshal Anil Chopra (Retd) Arms Control 30 Col Utkarsh Singh Rathore (RETD)

Beijing Supporting Pak Proxy War 36 Dr. Shalini Chawla

Kerala The Epicentre 40 Prof (Dr.) Satish Kumar

Dialogue And Denuclearisation 45 Dr. Rahul Mishra

Delivering A Thousand Cuts 48 Team DSA Saga Of Historic Firsts 51

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 3 geopolitics NAVIGATING CHOPPY WATERS

India Moment At Hand As India deservingly strives for a seat on the global ‘high table’ and to become a ‘net security provider’ for the region, it will have to put its house in order and ensure clarity in its geo-strategic aspirations, a unity of purpose and harmonious growth within. Political parties will have to rise above their transient, petty interests. It is painful to observe that some in India are adept at unnecessarily stoking the fires of communalism and casteism which strike at the core of India’s internal cohesion, integrity and thus, progress.

The look of ‘String of Pearls’ and China’s possible encirclement of India.

iolence in myriad territorial ambitions or historical similar narrative, unfortunately, forms, great disputes, religious or ideological continues unabated, underscoring and small wars divergences have characterised geopolitical turbulence in the between nations the roller-coaster passage of world and our region today. Peace Vattributable to mankind down the ages. A may be the dream and endgame 4 March 2018 Defence AND security alert of the wise but, regrettably, Proxy Warriors conflicts in diverse forms, Some issues which have remains the world’s unchanging impacted geopolitics in recent history. India situated in years, across the world, and are a troubled region with a likely to do so in the foreseeable relatively unstable neighbourhood, future, also need to be factored despite its traditional linkages by the global community. The with them, its size and a global rise of terrorism in many parts influence, too, confronts its share of the world and its exploitation of vicissitudes and travails. by a plethora of extremist non- State actors and as an extension Background of State policy by some nations Lt Gen Kamal Davar At the end of the Cold War in the is, indeed, a harsh reality of our (RETD) late 1980s and early 1990s the times. In addition, the rise The writer, a distinguished soldier is world acknowledged its unipolar of authoritarian leaders in a veteran of the 1965 and 1971 ops transformation with the US some nations who not only are and has served in all theatres of ops emerging as the sole super-power centralised in their governance in India in his 41 years of service. He has been GOC of the entire and Russia, the inheritor of the orientation but periodically stoke Ladakh sector, Chief of Staff of a erstwhile Soviet Union, fading the fires of hyper-nationalism Corps HQ in J&K and subsequently as a power in global reckoning. contributes to lessening the commanded a Corps resposible for But the scenario after the turn chances of compromise and the defence of Punjab. After a short stint as DG Mech Forces, he was of the century and especially in reconciliation among recalcitrant especially selected by the GOI to the last decade has, however, nations. Further, the availability raise the Defence Intelligence Agency. seen the arrival of a newer, and spread of advanced As the founder DG DIA, many innovative intelligence initiatives, unstable and gravely violence- technologies across the entire both at home and abroad, were afflicted geopolitical paradigm. world has manifested itself in both taken. After retirement, he writes Multi-polarity has emerged as a positive and negative manner. and lectures on security and strategic a reality in today’s world with As nations reap the benefits subjects. Is also involved with Track 2 initiatives and is widely travelled. an economically and militarily of a continuing technological His debut book on the Pakistani resurgent China closing the overall revolution, they have to Deep State captioned TRYST WITH power-gap between itself and the scrupulously guard against non- PERFIDY has just been released. US. Russia, too, gradually sees State actors and rogue nations itself back— recovering as a major utilising cutting-edge lethal global player—and middle-level technology for their nefarious THAT MASSIVE powers like India, Japan, UK, ends. Regrettably, the UN France, Australia, Iran, Saudi and its Security Council INDIAN Arabia, South Africa, Brazil along which should have become an RETALIATION with regional groupings like the influential institution and the ALONG THE European Union, BRICS, ASEAN, global watchdog in ensuring SCO, OPEC among others, set to a peaceful and harmonious LOC AND IB HAS play a significant role in global world, has been found NOT DETERRED affairs. One aspect which glaringly wanting notwithstanding PAKISTAN IS stands out and most strategic its noble intentions. The UN experts, universally, are in remains hostage to big A CAUSE OF agreement is the none-too-peaceful power rivalry with certain CONCERN TO rise of a formidable China out to nations utilising its portals reshape the world order in keeping only to further their own petty THE INDIAN with its mounting ambitions. national interests. ESTABLISHMENT

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 5 geopolitics NAVIGATING CHOPPY WATERS

Waning US Influence The US, since years the global policeman, is a pale image of its original avatar in the last decade or so. Financially weary and appearing militarily fatigued now, the US’ influence over the world and even over its allies has diminished to a large extent. That President Donald Trump, since assuming office in January 2017, has been trumpeting, rather vociferously, that he will restore America’s original glory in the world, keep its adversaries at bay and wipe out international terrorism will not be as simple as heralded. However, the US is now making some attempts to regain its sphere of influence in the global community with Trump declaring his intention to put an end to the US “era of strategic patience.” The US, in its countervailing efforts, primarily vis-à-vis China in the Indo-Pacific region wants India to play a lead role in Asia and the maritime commons. Additionally, the US and Indian interests are also attaining strategic convergence in strife-torn and politically unstable Afghanistan. America, notwithstanding the nearly US The Rise of China: Peaceful or Menacing? $32 billion military and financial largesse to Pakistan since the launch of GWOT in Afghanistan, and cut-off the financial tap and in the coming decade, remains seen as one and only to restrain Pakistan from its according to many financial enemy in the minds of Pakistanis. devious activities. institutions, China will surpass It appears to be in a bind when even the US. It is extensively it comes to dealing with its China’s Unbridled employing its burgeoning perfidious protégé—a factor long Ambitions financial clout all across the world exploited by the Pakistanis who A major defining point in and, in military preparedness, continue to fan instability in the geopolitics, in recent times, speedily endeavouring to close South Asian region, especially has been the meteoric rise of the capabilities gap between itself in its neighbourhood. The US, China. Its phenomenal growth, and the US. Its economic brow- as it admonishes its one-time economically, makes it now the beating of many nations across favourite, has to ’walk the talk’ world’s second largest economy the world, especially in Asia, and,

6 March 2018 Defence AND security alert ‘String of Pearls’ around India, its unsolved boundary problems with India and its decision to construct the US $56 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) through a disputed territory, namely Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) portends adversarial relations with India in the foreseeable future. China’s veto at the UN in favour of Pakistan based anti- India terrorist, Azhar Masood, its recent mischief in Doklam (along the Sikkim-Bhutan border) and lately warning India regarding the Maldives are all glaring examples of China’s anti-India stance.

Naval Bases China has also commenced the creation of quasi-civilian and military bases from many small islands in the South China Sea to Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Gwadar in Pakistan to Djibouti in Africa. It is also simultaneously carrying out major reforms in its armed forces and it is expected to reach its stated goal of Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) by 2020. Apart from major revamping in its military structures including the revision of military regions, its growing strategic footprint and the African continent is an massive upgradation in equipment across the Asian mainland and apt example of China’s regional for its armed forces, building in the Indian and Pacific Oceans and global ambitions. aircraft-carriers and increasing portends, unquestionably, its submarine fleet, the Chinese geopolitical turbulence in Anti-India Phalanx have created a Strategic Support the years ahead. China’s China’s financial, military and Force comprising of Space, Cyber assertiveness in these maritime nuclear patronage of Pakistan and Electronic Forces. It is well commons, its current flouting of and employing it as a low-cost on its way to attain supremacy internationally promulgated and option against India is too well- in a fully informationalised recognised laws of the seas and, known to be recounted. China’s warfare environment. The importantly, its countless billions efforts via Pakistan to keep India Indian security establishment of dollars Belt and Road Initiative boxed in South Asia itself are will have to factor in all these all across the Asian mainland and part of its well-crafted strategy. developments, individually and with efforts to link it with Europe Apart from establishing a in concert with friendly nations,

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 7 geopolitics NAVIGATING CHOPPY WATERS

to counter the ever-growing owing to unnecessary Other Regional Players Chinese hegemonistic forays collateral damage resulting to Russia, in the last 2-3 years, in its immediate and extended innocent civilians. appears to be undertaking some neighbourhood including in the radical changes to its age-old Indian Ocean Region where the Pakistan also persists in its evil policies in South Asia. Owing to Chinese are making all-out efforts machinations in Afghanistan differences with the US in many to limit Indian influence. without a let-up. Afghanistan of its global policies and with a continues to suffer heavily with modest rise in its political and Pakistan’s Geo-Strategy near-daily gruesome violence economic fortunes, Russia is Though Pakistan’s anti- attributable to Pakistan’s endeavouring to revive its past India policies and its Kashmir patronage of the Taliban, the glory as was prevalent during obsessions have persisted Haqqani network, remnants of the the existence of its original since 1947, yet in the last Al Qaeda and now, even the ISIS avatar, the Soviet Union. Russia couple of years, Pakistan has terrorists. Pakistan’s mischief is warming up to China and, substantially upped the ante with in Afghanistan and to keep the surprisingly, to Pakistan also increasing number of cease-fire Kabul regime under siege is in its policies as regards South violations along the Line of Control acknowledged by the international Asia, especially for Afghanistan. (LoC) in J&K and even along community. The US, as stated by That Russia is opening up the International Border (IB). President Donald Trump, is poised channels of communication to It has maximimised its efforts to improve the security situation the extremist Taliban is rather to keep the pot boiling in in Afghanistan and has sternly incomprehensible to say the least. That is not good news for India which has, over many decades, INDIA HAS TO NOW IMPLEMENT A enjoyed Soviet Union/Russia’s FIRM, KINETIC AND A CONSISTENT unstinted support, both militarily POLICY TO RAISE THE COSTS FOR and in global affairs. Even today over 60 per cent of India’s military PAKISTAN—DIPLOMATICALLY, equipment is of Russian origin. MILITARILY AND ECONOMICALLY The other major regional power, Iran, has since decades, had J&K through its paid agents warned Pakistan to desist from adversarial relations with the and augmented considerably mischief there. As Pakistan will US, especially as regards Iran’s its efforts to induct large continue to support its so-called anti-Israel policy and its attempt number of terrorists in the “strategic assets” there, overall, in becoming a nuclear power. State. Pakistan’s “higher than Pakistan cannot, however, alter Nevertheless, oil-rich Iran wields the mountains and deeper than some of the endemic faultlines, in tremendous influence in the the oceans” friendship with its favour, as far as Afghanistan is region in relation to Pakistan China and being the recipient concerned. The Pashtun loyalties and Afghanistan. Iran’s sway of generous military, nuclear to themselves (read Afghanistan) over the members of the Shia and financial aid from it has will never subvert itself to the wily Muslim community, existing and made Pakistan far more Punjabi nationalism of Pakistan. spread over the entire region is belligerent in its anti-India stance. Afghans of all hues, even today, unprecedented and makes it a That massive Indian do not accept the Durand regional player of consequence. retaliation along the LoC Line as the official border and IB, has not deterred between Pakistan and Southeast Asia Melange Pakistan, is a cause of concern Afghanistan—notwithstanding Importantly, nations to India’s to the Indian establishment Pakistan’s machinations. east are awakening to the

8 March 2018 Defence AND security alert economic challenges and sluggishness, India is the relations. Apart from the George opportunities which may emerge sixth largest economy by Bush-Manmohan Singh-led from collaboration among them nominal GDP, the third largest nuclear deal between the in trade, energy, infrastructure, in purchasing power parity two nations, export of modern education and cyber connectivity. and currently, the world’s weaponry to the Indian armed Nations led by Japan and fastest growing economy even forces, there is near similarity other members of the ASEAN surpassing China. It is a matter between the two democracies on and East Asian Summit, like of a few years that India will dealing with China, on peace- Vietnam, Myanmar, Bangladesh, be the world’s third largest making in Afghanistan and Indonesia, Laos, Philippines economy after the US and China. importantly, now on Pakistan are gradually getting to move However, this reality can only be directed terrorism activities, both closer to each other. Most of ensured if the nation conceives inside India and Afghanistan. these nations also are wary of and implements a pragmatic That US President Donald Trump China’s assertiveness in the economic and security strategy has not only severely admonished region and some have lingering discarding petty and partisan Pakistan for supporting terror disputes with China in terms of politics within. Additionally, activities in Afghanistan but also the freedom of navigation and India has to appreciate that curtailed US financial and military sovereignty of small islands in development and defence are aid to this rogue state is a welcome the East China and South China two sides of the same coin development. The US also is Seas, some of which China has and economic resurgence is influencing India to play a larger forcibly occupied. And very only possible if the nation is role in the Indo-Pacific. However, recently, China has had the secure from both external and India, as it warms up further to the temerity to caution India to internal threats. Accordingly, US, must not put all its eggs in the keep away from tiny Maldives— the Government of India has to US basket and sustain its strategic an island nation of significant allocate additional finances for autonomy in global and regional strategic importance in the the Defence Budget, which is affairs. However, in the current Indian Ocean. currently, merely under 1.60 per crisis in the Maldives, India-US cent of the nation’s GDP. cooperation is vitally warranted To balance the power equation including military intervention to in the choppy waters of the Indo- restore democracy in that nation, Pacific, with an aggressive China INDIA HAS TO which otherwise, will succumb in mind, the US is seriously APPRECIATE to China’s great game in the endeavouring to revive the Indo-Pacific. In addition, India concept of the QUAD, namely, THAT must also play a proactive role the quadrilateral grouping of DEVELOPMENT in the formation of the QUAD. itself, India, Japan and Australia. AND DEFENCE Nevertheless, even if India-China Joint naval exercises and efforts rivalry is a foregone conclusion to ensure better interoperability ARE TWO SIDES in the future also, efforts by India between the navies of these four OF THE SAME to resolve the outstanding India- nations are being planned. China border problems must COIN be strived for and the boundary Options For India mechanisms to prevent incidents It brooks no elaboration to state India-US Rapprochement at the border regions strengthened. that, since the turn of the century, However, India will have to vastly India’s economic resurgence and One of India’s major geostrategic upgrade its armed forces to ensure its influence is a matter of global policy transformations, since the effective deterrence vis-à-vis China reckoning. Notwithstanding even Kargil War in 1999, has been the for the latter only respects military the current internal economic steady convergence in India-US power. The Chinese mischief at

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 9 geopolitics NAVIGATING CHOPPY WATERS

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Afghanistan President Dr. Mohammad Ashraf Ghani at Hyderabad House in New Delhi.

Doklam last year should have for Pakistan—diplomatically, Nepal, now under a pro-China brought some urgent lessons militarily and economically. It leftist dispensation, requires deft for India to introspect upon and should be made clear to Pakistan handling by India. institute corrective measures that India does not need it and including capacity-building. India we should be prepared to cut Unify India must also endeavour to keep at off all relations with them apart As India deservingly strives for a bay China’s growing footprint in from making all efforts to isolate seat on the global ‘high table’ and South Asia though the China-Pak them internationally. Pakistan is to become a ‘net security provider’ nexus is here to stay in the future. not likely to change and has to for the region, it will have to put be taught stern lessons for it has its house in order and ensure Cut Ties With Pak shown no appetite to behave as clarity in its geostrategic As regards Pakistan, responsible and good neighbour. aspirations, a unity of purpose notwithstanding efforts by and harmonious growth within. successive Indian Prime Use Soft Power Political parties will have to rise Ministers to improve relations Importantly, India must step above their transient, petty with Pakistan, the latter has up its soft power forays in its interests. It is painful to observe shown no inclination to improve immediate neighbourhood that some in India are adept at the turbulent relationship with including in Bangladesh, Nepal, unnecessarily stoking the fires of its larger neighbour. Pakistan Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. communalism and castism has vastly upped the ante in Notwithstanding Pakistan’s which strike at the core J&K, including along the LoC/IB persistent anti-India efforts in of India’s internal cohesion, and continues with its nefarious the region, India, as the largest integrity and thus, progress. activities, both inside India and and strongest power, must make Notwithstanding the geopolitical Afghanistan. Though war may all out efforts to make SAARC an turbulence around India, the not be an option in the minds effective institution. Nevertheless, current era is clearly a of many, but, India has to now India must unstintedly support defining moment in India’s implement a firm, kinetic and a the current friendly governments fortunes. We must not miss the consistent policy to raise the costs in Bangladesh and Afghanistan. India moment.

10 March 2018 Defence AND security alert Pakistan US CUTS AID

The Leopard Will Not Change Its Spots

Arvind Gupta The writer is Director In India, many analysts are hoping that the increased US Vivekananda International pressure on Pakistan will deter it from supporting anti- Foundation New Delhi. India terrorist groups. This is not happening. Pakistan continues to support terrorism in J&K. The ceasefire violations on the LoC have registered a sharp increase. These trends are likely to continue in the future.

n his first tweet of the New A tweet as strong as this would Year, US President Trump normally mean that US aid to took on Pakistan in as Pakistan would stop straightaway unambiguous terms as he and Pakistan would come under could. He said, “The United sanctions. There is no more IStates has foolishly given Pakistan pressure on Pakistan than what more than 33 billion dollars in has been the case before. On the Prateek Joshi aid over the last 15 years, and contrary, there have been series they have given us nothing but of high profile attacks in Kabul in The writer is a Research Associate at Vivekananda International lies and deceit, thinking of our which hundreds of civilians have Foundation, working on Pakistani leaders as fools. They give safe been killed. Pakistan has not politics. Previously, he worked on haven to the terrorists we hunt in been deterred by the threats from a project with Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis, New Delhi. Afghanistan, with little help. No US President. more!” He announced blocking of the $255 million aid under the The reality is that the previous US Coalition Support Fund, followed administrations have also been PAKISTAN IS by the suspension of $1.1 billion aware of Pakistan’s duplicity LIKELY TO PLAY security assistance. and have reduced assistance to THE CHINA

In US $ billion during 2002-2017 CARD VIS-A- Total Security related 8.259 VIS THE US. Total Economic 11.095 PAKISTAN IS Coalition Support Fund 14.573 LIKELY TO GET Total 33.927 EVEN CLOSER Source: Adapted from CRS figures TO CHINA

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 11 Pakistan US CUTS AID

PAKISTAN HAS US Aid to Pakistan 2001-2017 in US $ million, All agencies. ADJUSTED TO Year Commitment Disbursement US AID CUTS 2001 177 92 2002 831 798 BUT HAS NOT 2003 563 537 CLOSED ITS 2004 401 346 US OPTIONS 2005 712 630 ENTIRELY. NOR 2006 888 818 2007 824 752 HAS THE US 2008 873 715 ABANDONED 2009 1,200 960 PAKISTAN 2010 2,700 1,900 2011 1,900 2,100 Pakistan. But, US have not been 2012 1,200 768 able to reduce its dependence on 2013 812 756 Pakistan entirely. Not only has 2014 999 974 Pakistan gone undeterred, it has 2015 1,100 1,100 also drifted closer to China. 2016 778 988 2017 485 473 US Aid Total 15,743 14,707 How much aid has Pakistan Source: USAID been given by the US from 2002? According to the data compiled by the US Congressional Research This table shows that the According to the USAID’s figures, Service, the total aid and military primary component of security during 2001 to 2017, the total disbursements to Pakistan related assistance has been aid committed by all US agencies during 2002-2017 come to US Foreign Military Financing to Pakistan has been US $33.9 billion. The following table (FMF), amounting to about US $15.7 billion of which actually shows the breakup. $4 billion. The FMF assistance disbursed is US $14.7 billion, has continued at about US excluding CSF. Year-wise break- Broadly, US aid is classified into $250-300 million annually up of aid given to Pakistan shows three components, namely, $8.26 during 2012-17. Pakistan also that there has been a sharp billion in security related heads, got large amount of counter- decline from the level of US $2.1 $11.095 billion in economic head insurgency assistance, about billion in 2011 to US $473 million and $14.57 billion via Coalition US $2.3 billion in 2002-03, in 2017. Still, Pakistan remains Support Fund. However, Pakistan which stopped thereafter. one of the highest recipients of regards CSF as reimbursement of American aid. the expenditure it has incurred Between Financial Year 2012 and not as aid. It has complained and 2017, the security related In the economic-related that the US has not fulfilled its assistance to Pakistan less than disbursements, worth noting promise of reimbursing through halved from $849 million to $303 is the decline in the Economic CSF. Two thirds of this assistance million, of which the maximum Support Fund, which after was given in the first ten years cut came from Non-proliferation, averaging almost $750 million i.e. 2002-2011. It is worthwhile Anti-terrorism, De-mining and per annum between 2002-2011, looking at the security related Related (NADR) category, reduced and rising to $1.06 billion in FY assistance provided by the from $452 million in 2012 to zero 2012, fell sharply to $223 million Pentagon during these years. in the following years. by FY 2017.

12 March 2018 Defence AND security alert America’s dependence on Assistance under security related Pentagon Programmes, 2002-2017. Pakistan for supply routes and Programme US $ million intelligence-sharing makes Counter-narcotics 326 it difficult for it to sever ties, Foreign Military Financing 4,086 especially at a time when Taliban has increased its engagements International military education and training 52 with Iran, Russia and China, International narcotics control and Law enforcement 949 forming a broader anti-America Non-proliferation, anti-terrorism, demining and related 182 consensus. Pakistan is adept at Pakistan CI fund/CI capability building fund 2,352 playing on US vulnerabilities. While Pakistan exercises influence Source: CRS figures on the core leadership of Taliban and the Haqqanis, it has assisted Americans with intelligence inputs against some of the Haqqani terrorists at the same time. On 30th January, the Pakistani Foreign Office said that it had handed over “27 individuals suspected of having ties to the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network to Afghanistan”. Again, on 2nd February, it stated that Pakistan had killed 17,600 militants in counter-terror operations post 9/11 and cleared over 46,000 km of land. Along with this, by Handling the burden of millions of refugees, disputed border, absconding of militants across a dubious borderline and with accusations of creating instability erecting a fence along the Durand in each other’s state of affairs. Line, the Pakistani leadership is trying to convince Washington Pakistan is likely to play the China of its efforts in countering cross- SECURITY card vis-a-vis the US. Pakistan is border terrorism. RELATED likely to get even closer to China. The China-Pak relationship is What To Expect In ASSISTANCE being transformed into a broad- Future? MAY HAVE based strategic partnership of Pakistan has adjusted to US aid which CPEC is a manifestation. cuts but has not closed its US BEEN FROZEN options entirely. Nor has the US FOR THE TIME In India, many analysts are abandoned Pakistan, as American BEING BUT hoping that the increased US officials clarified that the aid cut pressure on Pakistan will deter it was not irreversible. Rhetoric ECONOMIC AID from supporting anti-India is high on both sides and the MAY CONTINUE terrorist groups. This is not bilateral relationship is passing happening. Pakistan continues through a rough patch. The US’ for the time being but economic to support terrorism in J&K. The pressure on Pakistan will increase. aid may continue, albeit at ceasefire violations on the LoC Trump can be more decisive than reduced levels. One should not be have registered a sharp increase. his predecessors. Security related surprised if a face saving method These trends are likely to assistance may have been frozen would be worked out. continue in the future.

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 13 Korean Peninsula DIALOGUE BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH

Can It Be Sustained?

A strong section in the US is apprehensive of ‘South Korea falling’ to the design of the North Korean leader. This section maintains that North Korea continued its provocative behaviour and kept testing nuclear and ballistic missiles because sanctions imposed on it were rendered ineffective by China. By entrapping South Korea, the section fears that North Korea wants to further weaken the sanction regime.

fter spewing fire for months, Winter Olympics appeared bringing some warmthA in the relationship between the Koreas. The North Korean Supreme leader surprised the world by making a highly reconciliatory statement in his 2018 New Year address. In his address he told, “This year is a year of significance, both for the north and south of Korea as our people will celebrate the 70th birthday of the DPRK as a great auspicious event and Hwang Pyong-So (2nd L), Director of the Military’s General Political Bureau, the there will be the Winter Olympic top military post in North Korea, walks with other North Korean officials. Games in the South. In order to host the great events of the nation sides to march together in the primary reason for the South with splendour and demonstrate Olympic opening ceremony Korean gesture for accepting the dignity and stamina of the looked like breaking the ice. the dialogue to resolve tension nation, we should melt the with North Korea. But for a long frozen north-south relations, Reciprocal Stand-down period, Moon had relentlessly thus adorning this meaningful The promised North Korean pressed the US to start a year as a year to be specially change in the approach was well dialogue with North Korea to recorded in the history of the reciprocated by South Korea. diplomatically settle the North nation.” North Korea’s positive Hosting a peaceful Olympics in Korean nuclear quandary. He approach towards the South’s an otherwise tense East Asian viewed that sanctions alone proposal for athletes from both security situation could be the would not end the North Korea’s

14 March 2018 Defence AND security alert Dr. Rajiv Nayan The writer is a Senior Research Associate at the Institute for Kim Yo-jong with his army officials. Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi since 1993, where he specialises in export control, non-proliferation and nuclear weapons programme. In Kim Jong-Un, the North Korea arms control. He was a Visiting the past, he did not favour a Supreme leader sent his younger Research Fellow at Japan preemptive strike on North sister, Kim Yo Jong, to lead the Institute of International Affairs, Tokyo, where he published his Korea or its suspected nuclear delegation for Winter Olympics monograph Non-proliferation facilities. The possibility of a in Pyeongchang. Kim Jong- Issues in South Asia. full-blown war, in which South Un underlined “warm climate Korea will be the real casualty, of reconciliation and dialogue” may have shaped his thinking. after the inauguration of the Winter Olympics game was over. Before the winter Olympics It raises the possibility of more and after the January 1, 2018 inter-Korean engagement in the announcement, both Koreas future. Officially, South Korea THE SUDDEN met at Panmunjom in the sees the PyeongChang Games a demilitarised zone on January 9, true “Peace Olympics”. SERENITY OF 2018, for the first inter-Korean THE NORTH talks since 2015. South Korea Lasting Thaw? KOREAN had sent a delegation. Both This surprised the world, but Koreas agreed to revive a military- needless to say, the North LEADER CAN BE to-military hotline closed since Korean gesture was welcomed MAINTAINED February 2016. South Korea kept all over the world, although insisting on denuclearisation of many were highly sceptical ONLY WHEN the Korean peninsula before and of the move of Kim Jong-Un. CHINA AND after the meeting. Possibly, it was The UN Secretary-General RUSSIA under pressure from Japanese Antonio Guterres welcomed and Americans. A strong section the developments and found CONTINUE TO in these countries was urging the moves of the two countries WORK WITH South Korea to be careful, “critical to lowering the risk of THE US and do not become a victim to miscalculation”. Even Trump North Korea’s plan of wedging a found “good thing” about these difference between the US and positive developments, starting South Korea. from talks.

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 15 Korean Peninsula DIALOGUE BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH

North Korea invited South Korea to a summit in Pyongyang. North Korea also requested Moon to play a prominent role in reunification of Korea after nearly seven decades. Media is speculating a special South Korea envoy playing a new role for peace. Will there be a new era in the region? Will North Korea agree to give up its nuclear weapons?

At this stage, definitely, it is difficult to answer. Officially, no country is supporting that North Korea continues with the possession of its nuclear weapons. Even after the New Year address, South Korea has been insisting on denuclearisation. The leaders of the six party talks, including China and Russia, are talking about denuclearisation in February 2018. However, so far all the declarations have been talks about both the countries When, in 2006, North Korea had towards mitigating nuclear risks respecting all the previous conducted its first nuclear test, and unification of Korea, not inter-Korean agreements. This many expected a rising tension much has been spoken about section also underscored the in the world and a big threat nuclear disarmament by the relevance of talks for improving to the US because even at that supreme leader of North Korea. inter-Korean relations. time, North Korea had possessed the missiles reaching and hitting For example, the January 9, 2018, Military Exercises: An at least two of the US States; joint press release issued by both Irritant but nothing happened. Instead, Koreas noted, “The South and In order to reduce tension in the North Korean leadership North will put joint efforts to ease the region, the United States continued to seek financial military tensions, create a peaceful and South Korea had postponed assistance from the US. It did environment on the Korean the annual “Foal Eagle” joint not want to talk to its ‘unfriendly’ Peninsula, and promote national military exercises till the Winter neighbours. reconciliation and unity. Both Olympics in South Korea and sides recognised the need to work for security of the Winter Now the situation is just reverse. resolve current military tensions, Olympics. One of the demands of North Korea is talking to South and agreed to hold inter-Korean the Supreme leader was to end Korea, and at least officially, it military dialogue. The two sides the US military exercises in the maintains that it is not interested will activate contact, come-and- region. Even North Korea did in talking to the US. On February go, and exchange and cooperation not conduct its tests—nuclear 8, 2018, the Director General in various fields, and promote or missile. It is difficult to say of the Foreign Ministry of North national reconciliation and unity.” that the current moratorium will Korea stated, “We have never The last section of the press release continue for a long period. begged for dialogue with the US,

16 March 2018 Defence AND security alert By entrapping South Korea, the section fears that North Korea wants to further weaken the sanction regime. The attempt of opening up of the Kaesong Industrial Complex is seen in this regard. The Kaesong Industrial Complex is a business production zone, which is in North Korea. This complex gets its ‘infrastructure and knowhow’ from South Korean companies and North Korea sends its labour force. North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January 2016, led to the closure of this complex. The general concern is that if South Korea gets involved in such activities, the impact of sanctions will end and North Korea will continue with its nuclear weapons and

Winter Olympics, PyeongChang 2018. ballistic missiles. The North Korean leader may continue BOTH KOREAS AGREED TO REVIVE with his provocative statements A MILITARY-TO-MILITARY HOTLINE as well. CLOSED SINCE FEBRUARY 2016. Sino-Russian Role SOUTH KOREA KEPT INSISTING ON The sudden serenity of the North Korean leader can be maintained DENUCLEARISATION only when China and Russia continue to work with the US nor in the future, too. Explicitly nuclear button. Of course, in and other regional actors of East speaking, we have no intention return, President Trump also Asia. China will not allow North to meet the US side during the remembered his nuclear button. Korea to dismantle its nuclear stay in North Korea.” North This exchange will continue stockpile because it will use it to Korea states that Japan and the to vitiate the atmosphere. As balance rhetoric of the American US are scuttling the dialogue mentioned, a strong section in president and intervene in process between the two Koreas. the US is apprehensive of ‘South security dynamics of East Asia in On the other hand, America’s Korea falling’ to the design of general. In fact, the North Korean vice-president expressed his the North Korean leader. This provocation tested the limit of willingness to talk to North Korea. section maintains that North American power. Year 2018 may Korea continued its provocative witness a relative calm. The focus Trap For South Korea behaviour and kept testing will be to get North Korea out of Even after the New Year address, nuclear and ballistic missiles sanctions. The final outcome will the North Korean leader did not because sanctions imposed be interesting for 2019 stop his rhetoric against the on it were rendered ineffective New Year address of the Supreme US. It kept threatening to press by China. leader.

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 17 four NDA defence budgets 2014-2018

Still In Search Of Direction

Considering that it is virtually the last regular budget to be presented before the general elections, it would have been nice had the Finance Minister given some account of what has been achieved in the past four years, especially in regard to Make in India in defence or for setting up of cyber, space and the special forces commands, which are critical for beefing up India’s strategic capabilities to meet the challenges of an uncertain future.

elivering his first budget speech on July 10, 2014, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said, Defence D“There can be no compromise with the defence of our country”, and then proceeded to enhance the allocation made in the interim budget a few months Budget earlier by his predecessor by a princely sum of Rs 5,000 crore. It is another matter that even this enhancement left a gap of more than Rs 71,000 crore between 2018-19 the requirement projected by the armed forces and the allocation ruled out but this cannot explain or the Ministry of Finance. The made to them. the increasing magnitude of the platitudinous promises made gap. This growing mismatch routinely by the finance ministers This was not the first time is an unmistakable pointer to in their budget speech, practically that there was a gap between underfunding of the defence every year, that adequate funds will projection and allocation, nor needs and a complete disconnect be provided for defence, therefore, was it to be the last. In 2010- between defence planning and do not inspire much confidence. 11, the gap was a little over fiscal realism. Rs 23,000 crore which rose to The Standing Committee more than Rs 92,000 crore by Platitudinous Promises on Defence, too, has been 2017-18. The possibility of some No serious thought seems to dealing with this issue rather amount of over-projection by the have been given to this problem superficially. The committee Services cannot be completely either by the Ministry of Defence generally rests content with

18 March 2018 Defence AND security alert berating the Ministry of Defence that within the overall defence for not providing adequate funds outlay, the allocation exclusively to the armed forces and often for the armed forces has declined recommending that the defence from 1.61 to 1.39 per cent during allocation be pegged at three the same period, representing a per cent of the Gross Domestic year-on-year growth of just about Product (GDP). six per cent.

The committee does not seem Lack Of Income to realise that no amount of Generation berating will help as the Ministry What accounts for this state of Defence can allocate to the of affairs? The primary reason Amit Cowshish armed forces only what it gets seems to be the inability of the The writer is a former Financial from the Ministry of Finance. It government to raise its earnings Adviser (Acquisition) and Additional has also made no effort to analyse to be able to allocate higher Secretary, Ministry of Defence. He why the successive governments outlays for various sectors, has been associated with defence planning, budget, revenue and capital have failed to hike the defence including defence. Between 2014- procurement and other matters budget in accordance with the 15 and 2018-19, the revenue concerning financial management in committee’s recommendation. and capital receipts (other defence. He is presently a Partner with than borrowings) increased by Dua Associates, Advocates and Solicitors. Meanwhile, the total defence approximately Rs 5.5 lakh crore outlay as a percentage of the GDP but during the same period, has declined marginally from expenditure increased by Rs 6.5 2.18 in 2014-15 to 2.16 in 2018- lakh crore, thus necessitating 19. This may not have been so higher borrowings. alarming, especially because as a proportion of the total central Even if there is a dramatic government expenditure has improvement in the government’s gone up from 15.61 per cent to revenue earnings, it will continue 16.56 per cent, but for the fact to face two other macro challenges:

After building light combat aircraft (LCA)Tejas - India’s target is to build fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) indigenously.

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 19 four NDA defence budgets 2014-2018

Defence Budget as percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and total central Government Expenditure (CGE)

20 18 16 14

12 GDP

10 CGE 8 6 4 2 0 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Source: Budget at a Glance and Demands for Grant of the Ministry of Defence for the relevant years.

Note: The total defence budget includes the outlays provided under all the Demands for Grant of the Ministry of Defence, including Defence Pensions.

One, striking a balance between Rs 1,15,669 on 2018-19. During caters for all these expenses except the competing demands from the same period, the allocation infrastructure maintenance, has other sectors like health, for defence pensions has more gone up by a meagre sum of education and infrastructure; than doubled from Rs 51,000 Rs 3,490 crore from Rs 28,027 and two, containing the fiscal crore to Rs 1,08,853 crore. crore in 2014-15 to Rs 31,517 and revenue deficits as mandated in 2018-19 and the allocation by the Fiscal Responsibility and After providing for other for infrastructure upkeep, which Budget Management Act, 2003. obligatory expenses on ration, is met from the ‘works’ budget clothing, fuel and transportation, head in the revenue budget, has Salaries And Pensions the amount left is prima facie gone up only by Rs 2,450 from The more proximate reason for inadequate for other operational Rs 9,635 crore to Rs 12,085 crore the declining allocation for the requirements which, significantly, during the same period. armed forces seems to be a steep include procurement and increase in the expenditure on stocking of ammunition, Self-Delusion salaries and defence pensions maintenance of the in-service Some analysts argue that as a proportion of the overall equipment and weapon systems, the expenditure on salaries defence outlay. The allocation training, and upkeep of the civil and pensions, especially the for salaries of the armed forces infrastructure, to name a few. latter, should be kept out of personnel and the civilians the defence budget. This is not working with them (excluding To put it into a sharper going to be of much help since those working with the integrated perspective, the allocation all expenditure is ultimately defence staff) has gone up from under the ‘stores’ budget head met from the overall revenues Rs 75,392 crore in 2014-15 to of the armed forces, which of the Central government. The

20 March 2018 Defence AND security alert Prototype is an autoloader from ELBIT first seen on their Bharath 52 howitzer. solution ultimately lies in the the armed forces (excluding Going by the past averages, government’s ability to raise the integrated defence staff) about 90 per cent of the capital higher revenues so as to meet in 2014-15 has gone up to Rs acquisition budget is spent on the competing demands of all the 8,397 crore in 2018-19 but the making contractual payments sectors to a greater extent than is allocation for capital acquisition against the ongoing contracts, the case at present. sub-segment has actually come commonly referred to as the down from Rs 74,458 crore to committed liabilities. This implies The overarching budgetary 73,293 crore (which includes that in 2018-19, just about constraint impacts not just the revenue segment of the defence budget but also its THE STANDING COMMITTEE ON capital segment which, for the DEFENCE, TOO, HAS NOT ANALYSED sake of better understanding, WHY SUCCESSIVE GOVERNMENTS can be sub-divided into the ‘capital acquisition’ and ‘other- HAVE FAILED TO HIKE THE DEFENCE than-capital-acquisition’ BUDGET IN ACCORDANCE WITH sub-segments. While expenditure on acquisition of new ITS RECOMMENDATION OF THREE equipment, weapons systems PER CENT OF THE GROSS DOMESTIC and various platforms, PRODUCT (GDP) associated with modernisation of the armed forces, is met from the former, all expenditure the allocation for procurement Rs 7,300 crore will be available on acquisition of land and of aircraft and aero-engines, for signing new contracts. Is this execution of capital works heavy and medium vehicles, going to be enough? projects is met from the latter other equipment, naval sub-category. fleet, naval dockyards and New Contracts projects, and prototype Jeopardised The allocation of Rs 6,952 crore development under the In the last four years, new for land and capital works of ‘make’ procedure). contracts worth a total sum of

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 21 four NDA defence budgets 2014-2018

Gap between projection and allocation - armed forces (Rs in crore)

400000

Projection 300000 Allocation 200000

100000

0 2010-11 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Source: Report No 6 of the Standing Committee on Defence (15th Lok Sabha) and Reports No 3,4,7,8, 20 and 29 of the Standing Committee on Defence (16th Lok Sabha).

Note: The graph represents the gap between the requirement projected by the Armed Forces (including the National Cadet Corps, Military Farms, Rashtriya Rifles, Ex-servicemen Health Scheme, and Joint Staff) and the allocation made at the Budget Estimates (BE) stage.

Rs 2,40,000 crore have been that the ministry will find itself things, identify the bottlenecks signed at an yearly average of in a tight spot if the total value in the ongoing critical capital Rs 60,000 crore. Considering of the new contracts to be signed acquisition projects and suggest that generally only an advance in 2018-19 is in far excess of the the way forward. The efforts of the payment of 15 per cent of the past average. committee could come to a naught contract value is made at the time if ultimately it is found that of signing a new contract, and But it is unlikely that the ministry budgetary constraints constitute the remaining payment is made will face this problem for there a major bottleneck or the Ministry in the subsequent years as and is no indication that steps have of Defence is unable to improve its when the deliveries take place, a been taken to expedite the track-record of decision-making sum of only Rs 9,000 crore would procurement process. To be sure, which has been the bane of all have been required for signing the inordinate time it takes to capital acquisitions in the past. new contracts every year in the conclude new contracts is not past four years. entirely because of the budgetary The defence budget is not just constraints. There are other about armed forces or defence Going by this analysis, the amount factors too, such as the absence pensions. It also includes the available for the next fiscal may of an overarching acquisition outlay for at least four other not be adequate to maintain the organisation, procedural important organisations: Coast pace of signing of new contracts complexities and inefficient Guard, border roads, research in keeping with the past average. decision-making. and development, and ordnance However, slippage in payment of factories. In comparison with the the committed liabilities, which is Bad Record of armed forces, these organisations not uncommon, could make up Decision-Making have done pretty well, especially for the marginal shortfall in the The Ministry of Defence has set the Coast Guard and the research amount required for maintaining up a 13-member committee on and development organisations, this average. This also implies February 7, 2018, to, among other since 2014-15.

22 March 2018 Defence AND security alert ADECS 2018: India’s silent arm progresses slowly.

This provides a glimpse of the Submarines, Naval Ships, No Evidence government’s priorities but also Fighter and Transport Aircraft, If any earnest efforts have been places a huge responsibility Mid-Air Re-Fuellers, etc.” made to implement this decision, on these organisations to it is not evident from the union deliver. Sadly, there has been It went on to say that the “annual budget or the demands for no attempt to give an outcome targets could be set for each grant of the Ministry of Defence orientation to the allocations which were restructured made to these organisations THERE IS NO twice in the past three years or to introduce outcome- ostensibly to facilitate outcome- budgeting in other areas INDICATION oriented monitoring of the of the defence budget, such THAT STEPS utilisation of funds. If it wants, as capital acquisitions and the Ministry of Defence can set infrastructure development, HAVE BEEN the targets for these organisations which are ideal for outcome- TAKEN TO even now. oriented monitoring. EXPEDITE THE Considering that it is Outcome Targets PROCUREMENT virtually the last regular In its 22nd report submitted PROCESS budget to be presented before the in May 2016, the Standing general elections, it would Committee on Defence had have been nice had the Finance recommended that “with such programme/scheme and Minister given some account of a view to monitoring the allocations made accordingly, what has been achieved specific items, there is a need thus, paving the way for in the past four years, for converting this Budget outcome-oriented monitoring. especially in regard to Make in into an “outcome”-oriented Since the outcome of each such India in defence or for setting up budget of specified categories project would be measurable, of cyber, space and the / projects, viz., programmes it would be possible to assess special forces commands, and the progress made by the which are critical for schemes for acquisition of Ministry during the year, beefing up India’s strategic Artillery and Air Defence pinpoint the reasons for capabilities to meet the Guns, Bullet-Proof Jackets, shortfall and take challenges of an uncertain Helicopters, Missiles, remedial measures.” future.

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 23 nextgen fighter aircraft BEYOND SIXTH

AEROSPACE UNLIMITEd

For long, military aviation, doctrines and requirements drove technology. Today, technologies are offering enhanced capabilities that are driving operational employment and tactics. Artificial Intelligence (AI), smart structures, and hybrid systems will dictate the future.

he US Air Force (USAF) and US Navy Aerospace Superiority (USN) are leading the evolution of next The one who controls Space will control the Air generation platforms and technologies. in future. Aerospace craft will aim to seize control Defence Advanced Research Projects establishing dominance/supremacy over the Agency (DARPA), US Air Force Research enemy’s aerospace assets. They will operate under TLabs (AFRL), Boeing ‘Phantom Works’, Lockheed the control/co-ordination of space-based Early Martin’s ‘Skunk Works’ and NASA are all aiding Warning and Control satellites with increased the work on concepts of ‘Air Dominance’ for 2040 Artificial Intelligence (AI). Satellite/aircraft-based and beyond. The Americans, Chinese and Russians kinetic and Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) will are all working on the Sixth-generation fighters soon be a reality and will be used for aerial or which will be inducted from 2028 onwards. Fighter surface attack. Even if aerospace supremacy cannot bomber as a platform, therefore, is still here to stay. be established, a “degree of dominance” in the air- More and more of these will become uninhabited, space bubble in a given area and given time-space or optionally manned. There will be dramatic without prohibitive interference by opposing air changes in the aerial platform performance and forces will be desired. aerial weapons. The clear line defining Atmosphere and Space will get smudged. Aerospace will soon Evolving Air Threats become a common domain with more aerospace- The world already has eight overt nuclear powers, craft routinely transiting up and down, taking one covert nuclear power (Israel), and at least two advantage of each. Combat engagements nuclear aspirants (Saudi Arabia and Iran). Non- will be at much faster speeds and much Proliferation (nuclear weapons) Treaty (NPT) is still greater distances. not fully effective. More and more countries are

24 March 2018 DefenceDefence ANDAND securitysecurity alalertert Sukhoi T-50 PAKFA stealth fighter. Air Marshal Anil Chopra PVSM AVSM VM VSM (RETD)

The writer was a pioneer of the Mirage 2000 fleet and commanded a Mirage Squadron, two operational air bases and the IAF’s Flight Test Centre, acquiring missile technology. The USAF has already modified ASTE. He was the Team Leader of an aircraft upgrade project in Russia. Missiles are becoming faster, F-4s and F-16s to fly them He was the head of IAF in J&K and more accurate, have longer range remotely. In France, Dassault Inspections in IAF, and has been and larger multiple warheads. The leads a multi-nation delta wing member of the Armed Forces Tribunal, weapon delivering air platforms UCAV ‘Neuron’ of the size of and JNU Executive Council. are becoming faster and more Mirage 2000. UK has a Strategic efficient for deeper penetration. UAS programme ‘Taranis’. The The non-State actors and UAS are taking-off and landing rogue regimes which follow no by themselves including on the international norms and ethics moving aircraft carrier (Northrop are trying to acquire weapons of Grumman X-47B). Autonomous Sixth-generation mass destruction. They could be air refuelling has been tested. fighters are a difficult-to-define threat. Any Lockheed Martin’s UCLASS future air platforms would have drone ‘Sea Ghost’ looks rather expected to to factor in all this. like a stealth bomber and is use advanced expected to carry 1,000-pound Uninhabited Fighters class weapons. The US is also engines such Uninhabited aircraft technologies working on hypersonic (Mach 6) as ‘Adaptive are already proven, and the aircraft. The Strike Bomber is Versatile Engine’ future is Uninhabited Aerial likely to be optionally manned. Systems (UAS). World is in Uninhabited helicopter convoys technology transition. There are some who will deliver supplies to troops to allow see the JSF F-35 as the last deployed on combat front lines. longer ranges manned fighter/bomber. Solar- The US Army’s dramatic shift powered UAS are already flying. to a nearly all-unmanned flight and higher Currently, the solar-powered over the next three decades is performance Zephyr holds the endurance embedded in the UAS roadmap. record for UAVs, with 14 days The USAF’s UAS vision document in the air. Dual use (optionally indicates that by year 2047, every manned) aircraft are also flying. mission would be unmanned.

March 2018 DefenceDefence AANDND securitysecurity aallertert 25 nextgen fighter aircraft BEYOND SIXTH

U.S. Air Force Technical Sergeant James Anderson, 354th Maintenance Squadron, provides insight into sheet metal opera- tions to Airmen with the Indian Air Force.

Sixth Generation Fighters request for information regarding underbelly, hatchways and wheel The USAF also seeks a new fighter a new F/A-XX aircraft that could wells. If the area is damaged, the for 2030-50 named the “Next replace its fleet of the latest Super contents of the pocket are released Generation Tactical Aircraft”. Hornet variants (larger) in the to form a temporary plug, helping Such aircraft would have to have 2030s. The regular Hornet aircraft the aircraft to operate in spite enhanced capabilities in reach, is being replaced by the F-35s. of the damage. New generation persistence, survivability, net- Lockheed Martin’s proposal calls of engines will allow ultra-high centricity, sustained awareness, for greater speed, range, stealth altitude super-cruise. The avionics human-system integration and self-healing structures; are supposed to withstand next and weapon effects. Boeing is developments that will require generation electronic attack proposing a replacement for new breakthroughs in propulsion, and cyber-attack, have passive the F-22A Raptor. The project materials, power generation and detection, and integrated self- is currently limited to concept weapon technology. Self-healing protection. The tailless flying images and the US Air Force structures, in particular, would wing, “cranked kite” design remains non-committal. Boeing pose a significant advantage over concept currently appears the way envisages the F/A-XX, F-X and modern-day aircraft, remaining forward for future fighter aircraft. a possible Unmanned Combat airborne despite taking heavy fire. The sixth-generation fighters are Air Vehicle (UCAV) comprising The system comprises pockets expected to use advanced engines an all-encompassing future of epoxy resin and a hardener, such as ‘Adaptive Versatile strategy for the USAF. Boeing is installed around vulnerable Engine’ technology to allow longer also responding to the US Navy’s parts of the aircraft such as the ranges and higher performance,

26 March 2018 Defence AND security alert The US Air Force has successfully fired an X-51A Waverider hypersonic cruise missile from a B-52 Stratofortress. where the ratios of bypass and USAF is developing a new air- campaign to open up weaknesses compression airflow can be made to-air missile, dubbed the Small in an enemy’s air defence will be variable to improve efficiency. Advanced Capabilities Missile required even for fifth-generation Major action is unfolding. The (SACM) for 2030s. The SACM fighter aircraft to operate in the combat pilot still has backers and would promise an improved solid area without assuming excess still has a place on-board. rocket motor having synergised risk. Development of solid- control enabled by combined state airborne laser capability is Future Weaponry aero, attitude control and thrust already underway. The solid-state Future weaponry would utilise vectoring. The missile will have laser systems defensively create a scramjets for the production of improved ‘high off bore sight’ for sanitised sphere of safety around faster missiles. Despite failing rear hemisphere kills and ‘lower the aircraft, shooting down or its recent tests, Boeing’s X-51A cost per kill.’ The missile would critically damaging incoming Wave-rider scramjet remains also incorporate energy optimizing missiles and approaching aircraft in development as it hopes guidance, navigation and control. with the laser turrets. Even to reach hypersonic speeds The Miniature Self-Defense attacking targets on the ground, approaching Mach 6, a speed Munition (MSDM), will enhance such as individual people, with at which a missile could not future platforms’ self-defence pinpoint precision, or shooting be stopped by conventional air capability, without impacting down ballistic missiles and defence technology. Continued the primary weapon payload. A other traditional targets are experiments with DEW and sixth-generation missile could possibilities. Controlling aircraft’s lasers, used for defensive as well replace AMRAAM. A survivable, heat signature while using laser as offensive measures, delivering long-range missile with combined weaponry will be an issue. One effects at the speed of light, are air-to-air and air-to-ground option is to develop a thermal also likely to shape precisely capabilities is being evolved. accumulator. Alternatively, off- what sixth-generation fighters Range would be a big factor to board venting is to manage the are equipped with. New aircraft counter potential adversaries heat. New liquid-based lasers will be as much about reusable with Chinese PL-15. It will be promise enough energy to bring weaponry (lasers) as it is about multiband, broad spectrum – down an aircraft (about 150KW), expendable weaponry. The USAF which aids it in survivability and yet are small enough to fit on a is interested in three categories of reaching the target. DARPA’s, truck, and should be able to be lasers: low-power for illuminating, the Triple Target Terminator (T3) mounted on a jet fighter. tracking, targeting, and defeating Programme, envisions combined enemy sensors; moderate-power capabilities of Raytheon’s AIM- Evolving Technologies for protection to destroy incoming 120 and AGM-88 High-speed For long military aviation, missiles; and high-power to Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM). doctrines and requirements offensively engage enemy No aircraft is invisible, and using drove technology. Today, aircraft and ground targets. standoff weaponry early in an air technologies are offering

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 27 nextgen fighter aircraft BEYOND SIXTH

FGFA Nausena (Naval Variant).

enhanced capabilities that are The Sukhoi/HAL Fifth Generation driving operational employment and tactics. Artificial Intelligence Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) or (AI), smart structures, and hybrid Perspective Multi-role Fighter systems will dictate the future. (PMF) is a fifth-generation Demand for streaming high- quality data requires bandwidth, fighter being jointly developed which involves innovating by India and Russia sensor/processing systems. Mission computer systems be smaller, more efficient and for maintaining a competitive and network-centric payload capable of operating under advantage in an austere budget processing units enable onboard extreme conditions. Gallium environment. The Passive Aero- data fusion prior to sending to Nitride (GaN) is a semiconductor elastic Tailored (PAT), a uniquely digital links. Thermally efficient, material that is more efficient, designed composite wing will be high-performance computing easier to cool, and improves lighter, more structurally efficient onboard the aircraft is essential. reliability for radars. Any system and have flexibility compared Next-generation avionics would must be designed with aim to conventional wings. This wing will maximise structural efficiency, reduce weight and conserve fuel. Hypersonic cruise, fuel cell technologies, hybrid sensors, improved human- machine interface using data analytics and bio-mimicry, combination of materials, apertures and radio frequencies that ensure survival in enemy territory are under development. Things will build faster, better and more affordably, using 3D printing yet ensuring quality and safety standards. Additive 3D manufacture creates a world with spare parts on demand, faster maintenance and repairs, more effective electronics, and customized F-35 Lightning II may have finally turned a corner. weapons. The development of

28 March 2018 Defence AND security alert The European Meteor Air-To-Air Missile

a hypersonic aircraft would Action India Typhoon has since had its forever change ability to respond Japanese sixth-generation fighter intended service life extended to to conflict. Nano-materials would be based on concept of around 2040. China is still will control sizes, shapes and aircraft informed, intelligent and evolving its J-20 and J-31. Some compositions, and significantly instantaneous. Japan already Chinese publications are talking reduce weight creating conducted the first flight of the of a sixth-generation stronger structures for air and Mitsubishi X-2 Shinshin test-bed aircraft,referred to as Huolong spacecraft, thus driving down aircraft for this project. Russia (Fire Dragon). But, as on date, the costs. says the aircraft will most likely China has serious limitations on be pilotless. For now, the FGFA radar, avionics, and engine Heavy Stealth Revolution Sukhoi Su-57 is being inducted. technologies. The Sukhoi/HAL Fighters like the F-35 and The Mikoyan MiG-41 is a sixth- Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft F-22 may be stealthy, but generation jet fighter interceptor (FGFA) or Perspective Multi-role their support assets, like aerial aircraft, currently, being Fighter (PMF) is a fifth-generation tankers—KC-135R, KC-10A, KC- developed for the Russian Air fighter being developed by India 46A are not. The USAF needs Force. France and Germany and Russia. The Indian version ‘heavy stealth revolution’ for low announced they would jointly will be a two-seater for pilot and observable tankers, transports, develop a new combat aircraft to co-pilot/Weapon Systems bombers and ‘flying sensor and replace the Eurofighter, Tornado Operator (WSO). The HAL communications trucks’, as these and Rafale. It is likely be a Advanced Medium Combat will be targeted. The USAF could twin-seat “system of systems” Aircraft (AMCA) is an Indian adapt the new stealth bomber aircraft acting as a combat programme of a fifth-generation design for the stealth tanker role. platform as well as controlling fighter aircraft. It is a single-seat, It will also give ability to insert UCAV’s. The UK is committing to twin-engine, stealth super- special operations teams deep a next generation fighter maneuverable all weather behind enemy lines via a stealthy programme to potentially replace multirole fighter aircraft. India high-altitude penetrating the Eurofighter Typhoon post- needs to think ahead, lest we get transport. 2030, however, the Eurofighter left behind again.

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 29 syrian civil war FOR CONFLICT DE-ESCALATION Arms Control

An effective arms control regime is a prerequisite for conflict de-escalation. In Syria, where global and regional powers have their vested interests, the UN Arms Trade Treaty has been flouted by one and all. Civilians trapped in the Syria’s numerous war zones have paid a heavy price of this wilful connivance between arms exporting and importing countries and the intermediaries. It would not be difficult task to trace the origin and destination of arms consignments, if a fair investigation is allowed. Certain nations rake in moolah, while Syria bleeds.

Protesters perform as victims and rescuers during a demonstration against chemical attacks in Syria.

yrian civil war is a complex conflict situation having prosperous, until the Arab Spring- misnomer. Starting domestic, regional and global inspired protests broke out and from a feeble unrest dimensions. Multiple interests— the government chose to crush the staged by students in religious, regional and strategic, movement, is almost neglected. the southern city of fanning the conflict are at work. Population centres have been SDeraa in March 2011, cataclysmic The plight of a nation, which was destroyed. About half a million events have turned it into a once peaceful and moderately people have lost lives, six million

30 March 2018 Defence AND security alert have been displaced internally Russian interest in Syria dates and an equal number having been back to 1970s for maintaining migrated to the neighbouring presence in the Mediterranean countries. The collateral damage of and countering the US influence in war in terms of civilian casualties the Middle East. Conflicts in Iraq, and destruction of civil amenities Libya and Syria had weakened the has been extensive. The war in Russian position in the region. In Syria is truly a global conflict. 2015, Russia entered the conflict to support beleaguered Assad regime Syria has been ruled by Assad through its sustained air strikes family since 1971. Bashar al- against anti-Assad forces–Al Qaeda Assad, the present President and IS. The Russian support has Col Utkarsh Singh succeeded his father in 2000. proved crucial for Assad. Its aerial Rathore (RETD) Assads’ belong to a minority bombardments have relieved The writer is a defence & security Alawite sect aligned to Shia Islam, pressure on Damascus and helped expert and risk & threat analyst. who wields power in a Sunni the government forces to wrest majority country. The ongoing back control of many enclaves war is a magnum opus of a sordid held by rebels and terrorists. Syria kind; protagonist galore – global receives its military hardware from and regional powers; neighbours, Russia, most of it bankrolled by pro and anti-government forces; Iran. Syrian port of Tartus in the foreign militias, terrorists, Mediterranean Sea and Hmeimim mercenaries and warlords. air base in Latakia province has been given to Russia on a 49-year Global Powers lease in December 2017. Russian The United States has always diplomatic support at the United Iran, Kuwait, played a key role in the Middle Nations (UN) has been crucial. It Saudi Arabia, East. It supports Israel, Turkey, has used its veto power to block Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other Western-sponsored sanctions on United Arab oil-rich Gulf states. The US has Syria on many occasions. China, Emirates, United observed restraint in supporting too, has supported Russia at States, Qatar anti-Assad groups, as most of the UN. them have linkages with terrorist and Jordan organisations. Timber Sycamore, Regional Powers have emerged as a CIA-run covert programme Iran, a Shia majority country, is a major countries, launched in early 2013 to support major stakeholder in the conflict. rebel groups in Syria was called Despite the opposition from the bankrolling the off by Trump Administration. The US and its allies, Iran counters arms purchases US-led coalition of Western and the regional influence of Saudi Middle Eastern countries has Arabia and other Sunni-majority from different been striking at the Al Qaeda, Gulf countries effectively. It sources the Islamic State (IS) and pro- has been propping up Assad Assad forces in Syria and Iraq regime with men, material and since 2014. Of late, US’ support money. Much to the chagrin to Syrian Democratic Forces of Israel, Iran also supports (SDF) has irked Turkey, its NATO Hezbollah in the neighbouring ally, which has serious stakes in Lebanon. Thousands of Shia the conflict. fighters drawn from Iran, Iraq,

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 31 syrian civil war FOR CONFLICT DE-ESCALATION

Afghanistan, Pakistan and Turkey. Turkey fears unification fragmented militia operating in Lebanon are fighting in Syria of Kurd population of Syria, northern and southern Syria with drawing support by Iran. which is jubilant after their some 25,000-30,000 fighters. Its victory over IS. ranks have also defected to other Amidst all the destruction and nationalist jihadi and terrorist chaos, Israel – a US protégé, sits The US’ decision to raise a outfits operating under the banner pretty, consolidating its position 30,000-strong border security of Syrian Islamic Front. Wary of and economic development. force from SDF – a dominant the shifting ideology and loyalty It is watching the situation in force, which has driven out IS of the ranks and file, the US has Syria keenly. Besides Hezbollah, from Syrian soil, including the refrained from supporting FSA there are far too many terrorists caliphate’s capital Raqqa, has with military aid. FSA’s splinter groups in the fray—too close for not gone down well with Turkey. groups having radical Islamist comfort. It occasionally hits out It sees the SDF dominated by ideology have joined groups at Syria and Lebanon to attack Kurdish People’s Protection Units like Jaish al-Islam and Ahrar Iranian and Hezbollah targets. al-Sham. Iran and Saudi Arabia are its traditional adversaries, though Saudi Arabia, Al Qaeda had wielded influence the latter has mellowed down Turkey, Jordan in the Middle East and Africa under the US influence. A stable and United Arab through its physical presence or Syria is in the interest of Israel. proxies. It entered Syrian conflict Emirates have in January 2012. Mutating Saudi Arabia is a major patron of secured arms into many strains – Al Nusra rebel and Islamists groups doling Front, Jabhat Fateh al Sham, it out military and financial aid. export licences dominates the Idlib province. In Kingdom’s main worry is the rise of weaponry 2013, a merger offer by Islamic of IS and the spread of Al Qaeda in worth US $1.4 State in Iraq to form Islamic State the Middle East and Africa. Riyadh in Iraq and the Levant was turned and Tehran are locked in a rivalry billion from down by Al Qaeda. While the focus in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia East European and efforts of the western forces and other Gulf States are part of countries has been on the IS, the Al Qaeda US-led coalition. Jordan, Syria’s quietly thrived and consolidated southern neighbour, serves as a in Syria. Several Islamist rebel conduit for covert aid to rebels and (YPG) militia and accuses that it and terrorists groups have joined Islamist groups. is an extension of banned PKK. to form Hayat Tahrir al Sham Turkish forces attacked Afrin – a (HTS). Internecine skirmishes Syria’s northern neighbour, YKK-held Syrian enclave jutting with rival group Ahrar al Sham Turkey, is a military power to into Turkey’s southern borders in and IS for dominance of Idlib reckon with. It is faced with an January 2018, prompting Syrian have been common. Espousing internal security situation due forces to enter the fray. the local issues in Syria, Al Qaeda to its Kurd population. Sizeable has emerged as a dominant population of Kurds live in Non-State Actors rebel organisation. south-eastern Turkey as well as The Free Syrian Army (FSA) is a in the contiguous areas of Syria, major constituent of the rebel forces Growing from the Al Qaeda in Iraq, Iraq, Iran and Armenia. Turkish opposing Assad’s regime. Formed the IS have had a meteoric rise in Kurds have been fighting for by the Syrian Army defectors, it Syria and Iraq. It entered Syrian autonomy for three decades and is withering under the resource conflict in 2011. Between 2013- their Kurdistan Workers’ Party crunch and lack of patronage. 2015, it captured large territories (PKK) has been proscribed by The FSA has been reduced to in Syria and Iraq, including

32 March 2018 Defence AND security alert the cities of Raqqa, Mosul and hundreds of civilians. The UN by Russia’s entry into conflict Kirkuk, and, oil and gas fields constituted investigation team and a joint veto by Russia and of Deir ez-Zur in Syria. A US-led confirmed the use of deadly sarin China on UNSC resolution coalition and ground fighting by nerve gas in the attack, but failed calling for sanctions against the SDF and YPF forces in Syria and to apportion the blame on the Syria Government, Assad regime Iraq Army, Kurdish forces and perpetrator(s). in April 2017, again used sarin Shia militias gradually wrested control of the population centres and country side from IS. The IS, which once ran its Caliphate from Raqqa, has been routed.

Hezbollah, a potent force from neighbouring Lebanon is fighting alongside the pro-Assad forces in Syria since 2013. Its support to Assad regime has been crucial in averting a near certain capitulation. Being a Shia organisation, it is backed by Iran. Israel, which sees it as a potent threat keeps attacking it inside

Syria and Lebanon. President of Syria Bashar al-Assad and Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev. The Arms Control Anticipating an armed retribution on the rebel-held town of Khan NBC Weapons from the UN Security Council Sheikhoun in Idlib. The attack Syria had pursued a nuclear (UNSC), Syria joined the had killed 58 people and injured programme with North Korean Chemical Weapons Convention many others. help. A nuclear reactor on the in September 2013. In June banks of the Euphrates at Deir ez- 2014, the Organization for the Despite the robust denial by Zur, capable of producing weapon Prohibition of Chemical Weapons Syria and Russia about their grade plutonium was under (OPCW), confirmed that it had complicity in the attack, US construction, but in September disarmed the Syrian Government on April 6, 2017, in a sudden 2007, Israel bombed the site of its chemical weapons. The development, launched a barrage before it could go critical. suspicion of international of Tomahawk cruise missiles on community that Syria did not Shayrat air base in central Syria. It was long suspected that Syria reveal its entire stockpile for It was suspected that Syrian had chemical weapons means elimination was proved right or Russian jets carried out the of delivery through bombs, when in August 2015, the Assad attack from here. The OPCW-UN missiles and rockets. The Syrian regime again used chlorine gas on joint investigative mechanism Government had acknowledged civilians in the besieged area. indicted the Assad regime guilty the possession of chemical of using sarin nerve agent in weapons in July 2012. In March A year later, the OPCW indicted Khan Sheikhoun. and August 2013, rebel forces’ the government forces in two strongholds in the North and incidents and the IS in one Syria is a signatory to Biological in Damascus were attacked incident of using the chlorine Weapons Convention since 1972. with chemical weapons killing gas. Undeterred and emboldened In 2012, the Syrian Government

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 33 syrian civil war FOR CONFLICT DE-ESCALATION

acknowledged possessing biological warfare capability and in 2014, admitted having production facility and stocks of Ricin (a bio-toxin derived from the seeds of the castor plant - Ricinus communis).

The Arms Trail Like the complexities of this multi-layered conflict, the issue of arms control in Syria is equally intricate and challenging. Its dimensions include the chemical and biological weapons, short and long range missiles, anti- aircraft guns, tanks, artillery, machine guns, assault rifles, explosives, mines and munitions. The inventory is exhaustive and covers the entire requirement of military hardware to sustain Saudi Army artillery fire shells towards Houthi positions from the Saudi border with Yemen. a long drawn war. Supply of arms to the warring factions comes from armed intervention, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, September 2017, by Organized direct transfer, diversion, black United Arab Emirates, United Crime and Corruption Reporting market, smuggling, barter and States, Qatar and Jordan have Programme and the Balkan battlefield captures. The most emerged as major countries, Investigative Reporting Network, common form is, of course, bankrolling the arms purchases Soviet era arms worth US the consignment diversion. from different sources. $2.2 billion procured from It happens at every level to East European countries were obliterate the trail of weapon Beleaguered Assad’s regime supplied to rebels. It is widely transfer. Arms and ammunition receives support from Iran and alleged that the documentary under export licence are Russia. Iran uses land routes via evidences, which could trace the delivered to a frontline State and Iraq to supply arms to Syria and entire supply chain from supplier the consignment is distributed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Russia, to end users were tampered. to various groups. which joined the conflict on the A generous cache of arms so side of Syria in September 2015 delivered, found its way to terror With multiple players, espousing by bombing rebels’ positions factions fighting in Syria. disparate regional and geostrategic uses sea and air route to interests, supply of arms and ensure supply. Saudi Buys Ex-Soviet ammunition in the Syrian conflict Weapons is an open violation of UN Arms To arm Syrian rebel groups Armies of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Trade Treaty (UNATT) – 2014. like SDF and YPG, the CIA Jordan and United Arab Emirates There are governments, non-State and Pentagon were running are equipped and maintained on actors, arms brokers, smugglers a clandestine arms supply western arms and had not evinced and warlords involved at programme since 2013. any interest in erstwhile Soviet every stage. According to a joint report in arms. Since 2012, these countries

34 March 2018 Defence AND security alert The European Union (EU) had a ban in place; Britain and France forced the EU to lift the ban

(including artillery and anti- aircraft guns) in black markets thriving on the Syria-Turkey and Iraq-Turkey borders. It is nothing but an irony of fate that even Syria purchased oil and gas from the IS.

Arms supply to Syrian conflict is not limited to small arms and ammunition alone; the inventory includes heavy weaponry like tanks, armoured personnel Saudi Army artillery fire shells towards Houthi positions from the Saudi border with Yemen. carriers, artillery, anti-aircraft guns, heavy machine guns, etc. have secured arms export central Europe have stepped up Even man-portable surface to licences of weaponry worth US their production to meet the air missiles found their way $1.4 billion from East European surge in demand. into conflict. Many aircraft have countries. Scrutiny of air and sea been lost to either ground fire or transportation data has indicated EU Jumps In missiles in the conflict. the cargo landed in Syria through The European Union (EU) had a Jordan to arm the Islamist rebels. ban in place on arming the Syrian Conclusion opposition forces since May 2011. An effective arms control regime is Russia has also availed this In May 2013, Britain and France a prerequisite for conflict de- opportunity to test its new forced the EU to lift the ban paving escalation. In Syria, where global weapons in a war zone on the ‘live way for supply of arms to rebels and regional powers have their targets’. According to Russia’s from European nations. vested interests, the UN ATT has Deputy Defence Minister Yury been flouted by one and all. Borisov, over 600 new weapons The rise of IS during Syrian conflict Civilians trapped in the Syria’s and military equipment items has added a whole new dimension numerous war zones have paid a have been put on combat trial to arms procurement through heavy price of this wilful connivance in Syria. clandestine means. Straddling between arms exporting and large swathes of territory in Syria importing countries and the Syrian conflict has proved to be and Iraq, IS had oil and gas assets intermediaries. It would not be a catalyst to arms trade in the of Deir ez-Zur in eastern Syria and difficult task to trace the origin region. Arms manufacturers, Mosul in Iraq under its control. and destination of arms traders, brokers and smugglers Awash with oil revenues (to the consignments, if a fair investigation are raking in moolah. Arms tune of US $1 million a day), it is allowed. Certain nations rake in industries in eastern and sold its oil and bought weapons moolah, while Syria bleeds.

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 35 Pakistan CHINA CARD

Chinese and Pakistani ministers during a meeting.

Beijing Supporting Pak Proxy War

US have been harsh and blunt with Pakistan in the last one year and have cut down on military assistance. But has this shown result in terms of Pakistan’s alteration of its strategic calculus? The answer is ‘No’. Pakistan continues to support Taliban and Haqqani network in Afghanistan and has continued its sub-conventional war in India. Clearly, suspension of US assistance does not deter Pakistan anymore.

S-Pakistan relationship took an unyielding valued partner”; he relations have shift with the announcement excoriated Pakistan for been on a of President Trump’s Afghan harbouring criminals and decline for the policy which talked about four terrorists. Washington has last six years pillars, including Washington’s been quite unhappy with Uand Washington has been dealings with Pakistan. Trump’s Islamabad’s support to the regularly expressing its announcement carried a Taliban and the Haqqani dissatisfaction and anger to firm message for Pakistan. network, which have been Pakistan regarding its active While Trump acknowledged targeting the US soldiers support to terror groups. The that “Pakistan has been a in Afghanistan.

36 March 2018 Defence AND security alert Frustrated America A readout from a meeting of The American frustrations with Pakistan National Security Pakistan came out, once again, Committee said that Trump’s very harshly in President Trump’s statement “negated the decades New Year Day tweet. Trump, in of sacrifices made by the his tweet, blasted Pakistan, “The Pakistani nation – a nation that United States has foolishly given has contributed so significantly Pakistan 33 billion dollars in aid to regional and global security over the last 15 years, and they and peace.” have given us nothing but lies and deceit, thinking of our leaders as Recalcitrant Pakistan fools. They give safe haven to the While the US stance with Dr. Shalini Chawla terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, Pakistan is not new and the The writer is a Senior Fellow at the with little help. No more!” Obama Administration openly Centre for Air Power Studies, condemned Pakistan’s support New Delhi. Trump’s tweet generated livid to terror groups, what is new reactions in Pakistan resulting is Pakistan’s response to the in firm, defensive statements US positioning. Islamabad’s from their policy-makers response to the US has been and angry protests on the blunt, indicating that it is not streets of Karachi raising anti- ready to absorb Washington’s Trump/US slogans. Pakistan’s accusations. Defence Minister responded to Trump’s tweet: Islamabad has received lavish American financial and military “Pak as anti-terror ally has assistance amounting to Islamabad’s given free to US: land and air approximately $33 billion from communication, military bases 2002-2017. However, there response to and intel cooperation that has been a steady decline the US has decimated Al-Qaeda over last in US aid post Osama’s killing in 16 years, but they have given 2011, which convinced a majority been blunt, us nothing but invective and of Americans that Islamabad indicating mistrust. They overlook cross- was not sincere in its efforts to that it is border safe havens of terrorists counter terrorism. Taking a taut who murder Pakistanis.” stance, Washington has slashed not ready its Foreign Military Financing to absorb Last year (2017), post- (FMF) to Pakistan from US $255 Washington’s announcement of Trump Afghan million to US $100 million for policy, Pakistan Army Chief 2018 fiscal. Recent reports accusations Qamar Javed Bajwa, during suggest that the US Congress a meeting with David has been asked to approve $336 Hale, US ambassador to million of civil and military aid to Pakistan, said, “We are not Pakistan for the next fiscal year. looking for any material The proposed military assistance or financial assistance..… includes $80 million from the but trust, understanding FMF fund, $20 million less and acknowledgement of our as compared to the last fiscal contributions”. (Al Jazeera) year. (DAWN)

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 37 Pakistan CHINA CARD

Pakistan Swings Towards Pakistan’s military power. In received substantive military and China fact, by the early 1980s, China security US aid, was designated US and Pakistan alliance goes had provided Pakistan about a non-NATO ally and acquired back to the late 1950s and early 65 per cent of its aircraft and American equipment including 1960s when Pakistan joined roughly 75 per cent of its tanks F-16s and P3Cs under the Excess the military alliance created by (Cheema). Pakistan faced strict Defence Equipment (EDAs). the US (SEATO and CENTO) to US sanctions in 1990s because of counter Soviet Union’s military its ongoing nuclear programme, The China-Pakistan alliance and strategic moves. Pakistan and the American military and grew at a much more rapid pace became a recipient of US aid and economic aid came to a halt. The given Beijing’s strategic interests equipment and the qualitative sanctions were highly damaging in the region and its strong desire boost which came from the in nature as they not only to neutralise India’s growth training of the Pakistan Army in suspended the US military aid and and counter US influence. Over the US military training schools. assistance but the procurement the last five decades, China Suspension of the US aid on April of essential spares was also has provided all out military 12, 1967, created tremendous blocked. Sino-Pakistan military assistance to Pakistan on three confusion in Pakistan’s defence partnership flourished under critical fronts; export of defence planning and added to Pakistan’s the umbrella of US sanctions equipment, assistance in desperation to look for options in and both nations entered building Pakistan’s indigenous order to acquire high technology into significant defence deals defence capability and its nuclear weapons. This development including deal for the production arsenal. Pakistan’s military contributed largely to Pakistan’s modernisation and evolving inclination towards China for Last two military and nuclear muscle weapon supplies and further owes a lot to Chinese assistance. military assistance. Pakistan- decades of With the commencement of the China alliance started in the aggressive projects under China-Pakistan 1960s and in the late 1960s Chinese Economic Corridor (CPEC) and and 1970s, Pakistan received Beijing’s proposed investment significant amount of interest support of over $50 billion, Islamabad free economic aid and military has helped is expected to reap significant equipment from China. Pakistan’s economic and strategic dividends in the future. Afghan Jihad Years military The second US-Pakistan alliance build-up Chinese Gameplan commenced following the Soviet Beijing has adopted an extremely Union invasion in Afghanistan. significantly supportive posturing for Pakistan Islamabad, under General Zia’s in response to US warnings and regime, received an aid of $3.2 of the Karakoram-8 jet trainer and statements. Chinese foreign billion from the US and the much eventually, the co-manufacturing ministry spokesman Geng desired F-16s. In the 1980s, of JF-17s, which supposedly Shuang reacted to Trump’s while Pakistan was the frontline will form the backbone of the criticism of Pakistan and said, state for the US, Chinese military Pakistan Air Force. “Pakistan has made enormous assistance continued. Although efforts and sacrifice for the fight arms from China were GWOT Interlude against terrorism and has made technologically not as superior as The 9/11 led Pakistan into its very outstanding contribution on from the West, however they were third alliance with Washington the global cause of terrorism. The capable systems, were affordable and Islamabad became an ally in international community should and provided quantity to boost the global war on terror. Pakistan acknowledge that.”

38 March 2018 Defence AND security alert BEIJING HAS NEVER QUESTIONED PAKISTAN’S STRATEGIC CALCULUS AND ITS SUPPORT FOR TERROR

In a significant move, a day after Trump’s tweet, Pakistan’s central bank announced its decision of replacing the dollar with the yuan for bilateral trade and investment with Beijing. Chen Zhu addresses Asia-Pacific parliamentary forum in Hanoi.

US have been harsh and blunt military presence in Afghanistan Pakistan today clearly indicates with Pakistan in the last one and Islamabad’s support is a blowback of its own policies. year and have cut down on critical in this context. Pakistan China, itself, is facing violence military assistance. But has would require US support on the and unrest in Xinjiang province this shown result in terms international economic forums; and has been concerned about of Pakistan’s alteration of its International Monetary Fund extremists in the province being strategic calculus? The answer and the World Bank. However, trained in Pakistan. Chinese is ‘No’. Pakistan continues to Pakistan’s dependence on the nationals have been attacked support Taliban and Haqqani US has reduced significantly in Balochistan and a senior network in Afghanistan and has given Bejing’s military, economic Chinese executive Chen Zhu was continued its sub-conventional and diplomatic support. shot dead in Karachi in February war in India. Clearly, suspension 2018. The incidents of attacks of US assistance does not deter Beijing And Terror on the Chinese nationals were Pakistan anymore. Pakistan’s Calculus not unpredicted and CPEC is state of military modernisation Although Beijing has been accompanied by severe security today is very different from where focussed on Pakistan’s defence challenges. it was in 1970s or 1990s (when capabilities and now has high US suspended its assistance). economic stakes in Pakistan, it Beijing needs to think seriously Last two decades of aggressive has never questioned Pakistan’s on these lines and needs to Chinese support has helped strategic calculus and its influence Pakistan’s strategic Pakistan’s military build-up support for terror. Beijing needs choices. Pakistan’s reliance and significantly. Pakistan sees CPEC to understand that though relationship with China has as a game changer although how Pakistan can become strong strengthened following Trump’s much it actually gains remains to with its military and economic stance. For regional peace and be seen. assistance, Islamabad’s tacit stability, China needs to utilise affirmation of the policy of its clout and relationship with The US and Pakistan will continue supporting terrorism will not Pakistan to influence and change to require each other’s support. allow it to be a strong nation. The its policy of supporting terror The US wants to maintain its intensity and level of terrorism in groups.

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 39 love jihad TOOL FOR ISLAMIC TERRORISM

Kerala Police ask interfaith couples: Is it love or terror? Kerala The Epicentre

There are reports of Maoists joining hands with jihadis. If the experiment of alliances between CPI (M) and the jihadis in Kerala succeeded in forming a counter against the nationalist forces, its impact will be disastrous not only for India but for the entire world.

he Love Jihad has that it was an imagined story conversion leads to migration to become the latest by right wing organisations. As Afghanistan and Iraq where girls menace in the Indian things moved and courts took are being deported. Hadiya case society. The Hadiya cognizance of the matter, things is not an isolated case, there case brought this became more transparent. The are many girls who were being Tissue to the fore and many NIA found the involvement of a trapped and converted to Islam. stories were framed for the team who indulge in the process Kerala is the epicentre but many Hadiya case. Many secular of conversion of Hindu and other States are also finding fronts and liberal thinkers wrote Christian girls to Islam. Further, cases of Love Jihad. There are

40 March 2018 Defence AND security alert many questions which need to India’s Supreme Court that it be probed? Why is it called Love was scrutinising 90 cases in the Jihad? Who are involved in this southern state of Kerala where nefarious design? Is it related to Hindu women were allegedly Islamic Terror outfits? lured or forced to convert to Islam and marry Muslim men over the Concerted Effort last two years. The NIA suspects Jihad is an Arabic word, which the role of the radical Muslim is closely associated with Islam outfit, Popular Front of India (PFI). and its history. It literally means There are reports that around making a determined effort to 5,000 people have converted to oppose something or achieve an Islam over the past few years. Prof (Dr.) Satish Kumar ideal or a noble goal. However, There are many States which The writer is Dean and Head of with the rise of extremism in have passed anti-conversion Political Science, Central University many countries, it is now being bill in the Assembly. It is an of Haryana. PG, Mphi and PhD used rather negatively to denote organised effort involving many from JNU. Coliminist for Hindi the use of violence. The phrase players working in sync to trap and Newspapers. Published four books and many research papers. ‘Love Jihad’ is a rather recent a girl. The recruiter is identified, development which means using trained and funded. In Kerala, love and sex to convert people to there are many cases of the girls Islam or establishing dominance migrating with her husband to over them. It refers to any attempt Gulf. The sources confirmed that made by religious zealots and the IS is very active in Kerala. Muslim fanatics to lure Hindu and The state government provides all Christian women into a conjugal kinds of support to expand Love or sexual relationship and use Jihad due to vote bank politics it as an opportunity to convert and ideological affiliations. Love Jihad or them by force, indoctrination and Romeo Jihad is persuasion. Love Jihad or Romeo The radical Islamist organisation, Jihad is a process under which Popular Front of India (PFI), has a process under young Muslim boys and men deep roots in Kerala. There are which young target young girls for conversion reports that 22 Keralities have Muslim boys into Islam by pretending as joined ISIS. After ban on SIMI, real lovers. In December 2009, a radical Islamist organisation and men target Justice KT Sankaran of Kerala namely National Democratic young girls High Court found indications of Front (NDF) was formed. for conversion forceful conversions. He stated Simultaneously, Abdul Nassar that from police reports it was Madani launched a Muslim into Islam by clear that there was a “concerted outfit called ‘Islamic Seva Sangh’ pretending as effort” to convert women with aka ISS. The PFI is an umbrella real lovers the blessings of some outfits. organisation of various political Karnataka is also the target of and non-political entities and this menace. trusts like Campus Front of India, All India Imam Council Splinter Groups Confederation of Human Rights India’s federal anti-terrorism Organisations. According to agency, the National Investigation a Home Ministry Dossier, Agency (NIA) recently informed the PFI has around 60,000

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 41 love jihad TOOL FOR ISLAMIC TERRORISM

regular members and 85,000 sympathisers in Kerala. Sathya Sarani Islamic Dawa Institute, a mysterious Islamic conversion centre also comes under the PFI.

Kerala used to be known for 100 per cent literacy and overall development, leaving other states far behind. Since 1990s, Kerala erred and picked up many things which turned to be adverse and painful. Hadiya case has been propagated by left-liberals as a violation of individual liberty. It was not like any other girl who

fell in love with a male of other A protest in Bhopal against alleged ‘Love Jihad’ cases. religion through the web of social media and got married. The script seemed of a typical Hindi movie. large extent, the divisive agenda story. The youth of Kerala have It was properly planned and worked. It was more systematic been migrating to Gulf and plotted by a group of people who because Kerala was under the other Islamic countries. Many are involved in conversion. The political system of Left or the of them move to Afghanistan, burqa revolution and symptoms Congress combined. The change Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Islamic of Arab culture spanning in the of political system at the centre countries. Kerala received huge northern districts of Kerala are a wakeup call. The Akhil Bharatiya Funding from radical Vidhyarti Parishad took this organisations in Gulf countries issue seriously and staged a strong protest in Kerala. Top has never been addressed in Kerala officials of ABVP including Sunil by the State or previous Central Ambekar, National Organising Secretary, ABVP, played a key governments role in highlighting the agenda which was not published in the took it seriously and the issue amounts of funds from Saudi public domain. was picked up by RSS. Many Arabia which were systematically leaders of the organisation went used to wean the minds of Modernity and to northern parts of Kerala and youth. Over a period of time, Radicalisation highlighted the matter with some of the northern districts Post-Independence, India has the Home Ministry. Ultimately, of Kerala adapted the lifestyles a unique conceptualisation of the ISIS recruitments and of the Arabs. The girls started modernity. The marriage of a radicalisation caught the wearing Arab dress code with Hindu girl with Muslim boy attention of the nation. burqa. Schools and colleges also was considered a great leap mushroomed with bearded males. of modernity. The Nehruvian Factors For Radicalisation TV evangelists like Zakir Naik socialism in the name of Kerala is not a poor state. became the most popular figures secularism collaborated and The mushrooming of Islamic in the State. These were the early was planted in campuses. To a organisations narrates a different signals of radicalisation of a State

42 March 2018 Defence AND security alert which was doing much better their corpus of ideas that grew the Black Burqa especially Saudi than any other state. In all cases, radical Islamist group National version is also a major concern. Muslim youth are radicalised by Development Front (NFD), now Also, northern Kerala looks like the educated class of Muslims known as PFI which has roots in a mini-Pakistan. Dattatreya such as Islamic clerics, Islamist the Students Islamic Movement Hosabale, Sahsanghchalak of editors, and mosque leaders. of India (SIMI), a banned RSS said, “There is definitely Hindu and Christians cannot militant group which seceded some nexus between jihadi open their shops during Ramzan. from the Jamaat-e-Islami. By terrorists operating in Tamil Charitable and black money has 1980, the Kerala branch of SIMI Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala and pumped in Kerala in a major had declared slogans such as the Communist Party of India way, and mosques and churches destroy nationalism, reinstate (Marxisit) cadres”. The same logic are receiving lots of it. All NGOs caliphate. Newspaper like was endorsed by an historian. of Islamists organisations have Madhyamam, which is published Tarek Fatah, author of Pakistan- links with political parties. They by the Jammat-e-Islami, are origin, said, “The alliance between enjoy influence and power over radicalising Muslim youngsters. Islamist and Leftists-Sharia’h- them. Popular Front of India Radicalisation proposed to Bolshevism is a dangerous threat (PFI) has been taking over control establish Islamic State. It creates to free speech and democracy”. of mosques and some Muslims a hate wave against the Hindu What needs to be added here under its umbrella. culture. There is an attempt to is that the nexus between the wean away Muslim youngster radicals Islamists is not only Babri Masjid Effect from local society. limited to the southern states or The teaching of history in India in India, but it is a global event. is tilted towards the Nehruvian In Muslim In almost every country, radical ideology. The attempt was to dilute Islamists are not only forming an the Hindu culture and its well- dominated alliance with the Communists but structured value system. On the regions like are also being comrades de guerre name of liberal thought, Indian Kozhikode, in a fight against the common treasure of identity was distorted enemies. The attempt to form in favour of Muslim heroes. There Malappuram unity and alliance between the are many examples which were and Kasargod, Communists and the Islamists in placed in syllabi to train the young India is not something new. minds of India. One of them was there is sign of the saga of Tipu Sultan. The attack Arabian culture Moreover, in 1957, Kerala became by Haider Ali and Tipu Sultan were percolating the first State in India to choose turning points in radicalisation a Communist government. It has of Kerala Muslims; the recent down substantial Muslim population. debate on Padmavati is a glaring Every third house of Kerala has example. This proves the fact the Communist/Jihadi a person working in the Gulf and history has distorted the image Cocktail remittances constitute almost 35 of Hindu culture. The demolition Marxists are also rationalising per cent of Kerala’s Gross State of Babri Masjid led to a spree of Islamic extremism. Marxism domestic product. initiatives in Kerala to sharpen the thrives on poverty, but Kerala is Islamic radicalisation. not poor. In Muslim-dominated Political Implications regions like Kozhikode, There are reports of Maoists Organised Radicalisation Malappuram and Kasargod, joining hands with jihadis. If the The Mujahid movement preaches there is sign of Arabian culture experiment of alliances between a puritan version of Islam and percolating down. Keralite CPI (M) and the jihadis in Kerala opposes Sufi practices. It is from restaurants advertise Arabic foods. succeeded in forming a counter

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 43 love jihad TOOL FOR ISLAMIC TERRORISM

The largest number of emigrants originated from the Muslim-dominated Malappuram district in Kerala.

against the nationalist forces, ul Muflihaat (Hyderabad), rights of all sections of the its impact will be disastrous Discover Islam Education society. Despite the concerted not only for India but for the Trust (Bengaluru), Tauheed attempts by the opposition that entire world. The outfits have Educational Trust (Bihar), Islamic minority are threatened, the links with the Lashkar-e-Toiba Research and Dawah Centre public space has been scrapped; and the Hizbul Mujahedeen. (Mumbai), Islamic Information the freedom of press is curbed. Saudi Arabia pledged 2.5 million Centre (Mumbai), have emerged These allegations have been Saudi Riyal to Islamic Mission during the last few years which proved wrong. The Communist Trust, Malappuram in Kerala, have provided direct access to regime in Kerala has expanded which was registered with the indoctrination materials. the radicalisation to a large MHA. Funding from radical extent. That is why Sunil organisations in Gulf countries Serious Consequences Ambekar, National Organising has never been addressed in Recently, Ministry of Home has Secretary of ABVP and thinker, Kerala by the State or previous identified the two districts of said: “I would like to tell the Central governments. Kerala as Naxal-affected districts comrades here that at least learn which is new development. It has from your counterparts in China, PFI has a network with National evolved due to the Left Russia and Nepal, they are doing Development Front (Kerala), government and Islamic terror something for their country and Manitha Neethi Pasarai (Tamil outfits which were given free they are not like you.” His words Nadu), Karnataka Forum for hand by the State government. are true. Indian polity has been dignity (Karnataka), and all The liberal cloak has swung from facing the tremendous challenge organisations with radical left to right. The perceived notion from cocktail of jihadis and ideology. There are many other that Liberalism cannot move in Communists. If Kerala is not organisations splashed in other the right direction has been reined in, India will have to face states like Peace Educational proved wrong. Modi government multiple challenges concerning Foundation (Kerala), Jamait is protecting the constitutional national security.

44 March 2018 Defence AND security alert North Korea CHINESE STAKES IN PENINSULA

Dialogue And Denuclearisation

Dr. Rahul Mishra The suspension-for-suspension proposal, which calls The writer is a Senior Lecturer at the for the suspension of nuclear and missile activities by University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur. Prior to joining UM, he worked as the DPRK and the suspension of large-scale military a Consultant with the Ministry of exercises by the US and South Korea, seeks to bring the External Affairs, Government of India. Before that, Dr Mishra worked two sides back to the negotiating table, thus, initiating with the ICWA, New Delhi as a the first step of the dual-track approach, or rather the Research Fellow. Recipient of the 2015 Asia Fellowship of the East- initial stage of this programme. West Center in Washington D.C., Dr Mishra was a Researcher at IDSA, New Delhi for four years. Between ith their Summit-level dialogue between 2011 and 2013, he had worked with remarkable North Korea’s top leader Kim S. Rajaratnam School of International success in Jong-un and the South Korean Studies, Singapore and the National University of Singapore. sending a President. joint team Wfor the Pyeongchang Winter However, a few months ago, the Olympics in early February situation was not as good as it is CHINA AND 2018, South (Republic of Korea) today. As a matter of fact, with RUSSIA VOTED and North Korea (Democratic growing war of words between People’s Republic of Korea) have North Korea’s Kim Jong-un and AGAINST demonstrated their diplomatic Donald Trump, the President of NORTH KOREA, capability to de-escalate the crisis the US, the Korean peninsula BUT THEY ALSO in the Korean peninsula which was was inching dangerously close to getting intense with each passing a violent conflict involving North MADE THEIR day. The event has brought about and South Korea with perhaps the POSITION CLEAR a remarkable thaw in tensions US, and other powers also getting between the two Koreas. dragged into that. THAT THEY DO NOT SUPPORT Indeed, the South Korean Sighs Of Relief TOUGH diplomatic efforts to reach out The recent developments have to North Korea have paid off. brought in a sigh of relief to MEASURES THAT Such has been the impact of China as well. Conflict between WOULD TOPPLE South Korean President Moon the two Koreas, directly involving KIM JONG-UN’S Jae-in’s Sports Diplomacy that the the US and Japan was a difficult two sides have already decided proposition for China, which was REGIME to discuss the possibility of a looked at with suspicion by some

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 45 North Korea CHINESE STAKES IN PENINSULA

in the US administration as a track of settlement through THE BIGGEST country indirectly supporting dialogue and consultation.’ CHALLENGE, the North Korean dictatorship. China’s Foreign Ministry While China did try to come out spokesperson Geng Shuang in HOWEVER, clean on that front, gaining some his regular press conference on WOULD BE TO appreciation of Donald Trump in January 3, 2018 stated: NOT LET SOUTH the process, but apprehensions regarding China fueling the North “China maintains that relevant KOREA LOSE Korean ambitions remained parties of the Korean Peninsula HOPE THAT somewhat unchallenged. To steer issue should seize the positive PEACE WITH clear of such allegations, China tendency in the situation on the took steps such as blacklisting Peninsula and work for the shared NORTH KOREA some of the companies from North goal. China is willing to continue IS IMPOSSIBLE Korea, which were involved in to play a positive and constructive doing business with China. China role in bringing the issue back also supported the recent United to the right track of peaceful regard in the past. For instance, Nations Security Council (UNSC) settlement through dialogue and on September 18, 2017, he stated, resolutions aimed at imposing consultation and achieving the “The current deepening vicious stricter sanctions on North Korea. denuclearisation and long-term cycle must be broken. Resuming In 2017 alone, China voted in peace and tranquillity of the peace talks is an equally important favour of three Security Council Peninsula.” [1] step in implementing Security Resolutions (2371, 2375, 2397). Council Resolutions.” [2] While From the above, it is clear that both China and Russia, the two Need For Constructive for China, it is in the interest of key members of the UNSC, voted Dialogue the Korean peninsula as well as against North Korea, they also One cannot possibly say that its own self that the peninsula made their position clear that they China has never aided North remains tranquil. Realising do not support tough measures Korea. While it is not possible that from mid-2017, the US that would topple Kim Jong-un’s to assess with precision the administration was getting regime and agreed to cooperate quantum and extent of Chinese increasingly involved in the inter- over the matter in bringing peace influence on North Korea, it is Korean tensions, China called back to the region. [3] evident that China, too, did not upon both North Korea and the want North Korea to be provocative US to maintain calm. The Chinese Buffer Against US and aggressive beyond a certain leadership also advised Donald China considers North Korea as threshold. This is obvious from Trump-led US administration to a buffer state, which has been the fact that the first time when show more diplomatic finesse in successful in pushing the US the leaders from the two countries dealing with North Korea. China’s away from Chinese borders. China met since December 2015, China Foreign Minister Wang Yi had would never wish to lose that termed the meeting as ‘the right made several statements in that strategic advantage. One of the

References: [1] “Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang’s Regular Press Conference”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of Chi- na, January 3, 2018 http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1523441.shtml

[2] “Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang’s Regular Press Conference”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of Chi- na, January 3, 2018 http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1523441.shtml

[3] “China calls for peace talks to halt ‘vicious cycle’ in North Korean nuclear crisis”, South China Morning Post, September 19, 2017 http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2111823/china-calls-talks-halt-vicious-cycle-north-korean

46 March 2018 Defence AND security alert Korea military exercises have done more harm than promoting peace and stability in the region. It is, indeed, true that intense US military pressure not only provoked North Korea but also made Kim Jong-un insecure.

South Korean Initiative Moving forward, it is clear that for coming months, South Korea will try to keep the baton for peace initiative in its hands, overlooking the Japanese or even the US South Korea and U.S. soldiers watch from an observation post during a proposal for joint exercises. For joint live firing drill. China, this is a good situation and in conformity with the Chinese primary strategic objectives for dual-track approach was aimed at Premier Xi Jinping’s ‘Asia for China in the Korean peninsula has ‘promoting parallel progress in the Asians’ mission, but it demands been to reduce, if not minimise, denuclearisation of the peninsula more ‘out of the box’ initiatives. the level of US intervention in the and the establishment of a peace Persuading North Korea to cut inter-Korean tensions. With that mechanism in a synchronised down on its nuclear programme objective in mind, at the height of and reciprocal manner, ultimately and stop missile testing would the inter-Korean tensions, China, achieving both goals together. be a difficult but essential task in March 2017, suggested the The suspension-for-suspension before China. At this juncture, “dual suspension” or “suspension- proposal, which calls for the when the Trump Administration for-suspension” proposal. At the suspension of nuclear and missile is moving away from Asia, which core of the dual suspension was activities by the DPRK and the is evident from his lack of interest the aim that both South Korea and suspension of large-scale military in ASEAN multilateral meetings the US should agree to halt their exercises by the US and South and withdrawal from the Trans- joint military exercises and war Korea, seeks to bring the two sides Pacific Partnership (TPP), China games in return for North Korea back to the negotiating table, would not like to attract the US to halt missile and nuclear tests. thus, initiating the first step of the attention towards Asia solely The Chinese Ministry of Foreign dual-track approach, or rather the because of North Korea. Affairs strongly pitched for the initial stage of this programme.’ [5] proposal, calling it ‘a practical The biggest challenge, however, step to resolve the crisis.’ [4] Clearly, for China, the joint would be to not let South Korea lose military exercises between the US hope that peace with North Korea is Dual Track Approach and South Korea has been one of impossible. Keeping hope for peace According to the Chinese Ministry the major hindrances in bringing and stability alive in the Korean of Foreign Affairs, China’s proposal about the peace in the region. peninsula is essential but China for full suspension was based Both China and Russia strongly has to shoulder some responsibility on the dual-track approach. The hold the view that the US-South to realise that goal.

[4] “China calls for peace talks to halt ‘vicious cycle’ in North Korean nuclear crisis”, South China Morning Post, September 19, 2017 http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2111823/china-calls-talks-halt-vicious-cycle-north-korean

[5] “China proposes suspension-for-suspension approach to Korean Peninsula situation”, CGTN, April 29, 2017 https://news.cgtn.com/news/3d49544f32597a4d/share_p.html

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 47 China’s hybrid warriors FROM NORTH-EAST TO NORTH-WEST

Delivering A Thousand Cuts

Immediately after the killing of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad in May 2011, Pakistan was put on the watch list of the FATF but that was specifically for money laundering. This time it has been given time till June to confiscate funds available with groups designated by the UN as global terrorists. Pakistan has made a show of shutting down bank accounts and lockers but the heart of the problem is that it is the Pakistan Army Inter-Services Intelligence that distributes financial largesse. According to the anti-India and anti- Afghanistan operations, these groups execute on behalf of ISI.

t should come as no surprise that China has consistently and stridently prevented the global community to take action against Pakistan for Iits role as the fountainhead of international terrorism, more particularly against its immediate neighbourhood, India and Afghanistan. Chinese diplomacy is replete with instances of interference and bellicosity against its neighbours. Against India, it has encouraged the insurgencies

in the northeast by providing President Xi Jinping meet in Islamabad with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of sanctuaries, training and weapons Staff Committee Rashad Mahmood and other Defence Chiefs of Pakistan. to many ethnic groups which have sought separation from India, the already assimilated Nepal within It taught a military lesson to Nagas being the first, since before its grand design and is using India in 1962 and attacked Indian Independence. its military might to intimidate Vietnam all along its northern the peace-loving Bhutanese to border in 1979 for dislodging the Chinese Ambitions join its bandwagon. All this is China-supported ultra-hardcore As long ago as the late 1950s, in consonance with the Chinese communist Khmer Rouge regime China had floated the idea of Quing dynasty’s “five finger” in Cambodia (ex-Kampuchea) a “confederation of Himalayan claim on territories bordering which had systematically States inclusive of Nepal, China ranging from the massacred millions of its own Sikkim, Bhutan, the North East Himalayas to the Mekong Delta people (highlighted in The Killing Frontier Area (now Arunachal (inclusive of Indochina States of Fields movie) to try and establish Pradesh) and Nagaland”. It has Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia). a utopian State. Hundreds of

48 March 2018 Defence AND security alert skulls of Khmer Rouge victims opposed them fell to internecine are still preserved in the former warfare. Pakistan saw in this Toul Sleng prison near Phnom disarray the answer to its dreams Penh. Modern day Cambodia has of having a pliant/dependent very close relations with China. It client government in Kabul with was an early illustration of how an expansion of its strategic far China will go in its game plan depth as far from India as it could of using its proxies to destabilise Al Qaeda terrorist group led by get to avoid reprisals for what the nations on its periphery Osama bin Laden. Based on the Pakistan Army Inter-Services that do not subscribe to its ultra-conservative Wahabbi cult Intelligence was planning expansionist aims. precepts, the Pakistani political- for India. military establishment found Before the 1971 liberation of it to be a veritable goldmine to The Khalistan Debacle Bangladesh, the former East Wing Based on the “two-nation” of Pakistan was being used as For some years rationale for its own existence, a sanctuary and launchpad for Pakistan began stoking the terrorist operations by insurgent China made Khalistani separatism in revenge groups. The Chittagong Hill out that it for the manner in which India Tracts was a notorious venue for had stopped excised its east wing to create such operations. The creation of Bangladesh during the 1971 War. Bangladesh broke this nexus for supporting After a decade of bloodletting, the a while but with the assassination insurgent Khalistan unilateral declaration of its founder, Sheikh Mujibur groups in the of independence was crushed Rehman, the pro-Pakistan putting paid to Pakistani military took over the country and north-east machinations for unraveling the Bangladesh began to be used as a of India but Union of India. sanctuary for anti-India terrorist organisations. Among them was events on the All this suited China because it the United Liberation Front of ground proved kept the Indian Armed Forces Assam (ULFA), whose leader, its lie. What, deployed in internal security Paresh Baruah, is currently a guest duties even as the Chinese People of China in the Hunan Province for instance, is Liberation Army made frequent Paresh Baruah inroads into vital sectors of the For some years China made out doing on its Line of Actual Control in the that it had stopped supporting northern Himalayas. insurgent groups in the northeast lap? of India but events on the ground But the Pakistan Army Inter- proved its lie. What, for instance, fund the war against the Soviets Services Intelligence soon is Paresh Baruah doing on in Afghanistan. Even as the US- changed tack realising that its lap? led coalition forces were funding for Muslim Pakistan to stoke Pakistan to deal with the Soviet Sikh terrorism in Punjab had Rise Of Islamic troops, Pakistan was creating an intrinsically short shelf-life. Fundamentalism new djinn in its madrassas – It turned its full attention to In the mid-1980s, during the US- the Taliban. stoking the Kashmiri separatism led war against Soviet occupation based on the Islamic ideology of Afghanistan, a new phenomenon As soon as the Soviet troops using the splinter groups of the rose out of the ashes of Afghanistan withdrew from Afghanistan, the Al Qaeda, United Jihad Council, – the Islamic fundamentalist Afghan tribal groups that had the Lashkar-e-Toiba and the

March 2018 Defence AND security alert 49 China’s hybrid warriors FROM NORTH-EAST TO NORTH-WEST

The British forgery at the heart of India and China’s Tibetan border dispute.

Jaish-e Mohammed and the From now to (FATF)—an international body Hizbul Mujahideen. For more tasked with monitoring terrorist than a decade now, Jammu and June, there is funding operations—which has Kashmir has been on the boil with enough time given Pakistan time till June to daily exchange of heavy artillery show concrete results in shutting fire across Line of Control. for Beijing off the taps that resuscitate terror and Islamabad groups and facilitate their attack The China Connection to find new operations. Immediately after the At first, China was chary over the killing of Osama bin Laden in the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in ways to duck “house with the high walls” in the Afghan-Pakistan hinterland international Abbottabad in May 2011, Pakistan because it was facing a deadly sanctions and was put on the watch list of the separatist movement of Uighurs FATF but that was specifically for of the East Turkistan Islamic continue their money laundering. This time it Movement in its Xianjiang operations as has been given time till June to province. Many Uighurs had confiscate funds available with fought alongside the Al Qaeda and before groups designated by the UN as Taliban against the Soviet troops global terrorists. Pakistan has and were battle-hardened and Dawa for camouflage) Hafeez made a show of shutting down intrepid. There were several cases Sayeed and the mastermind of bank accounts and lockers of attacks on Chinese engineers the Jaish-e Mohammad from the but the heart of the problem and workers inside Pakistan and concerted Indian attempt to have is that it is the Pakistan Army China feared that the desolate both of them declared to be global Inter-Services Intelligence that Wakhan corridor of northeastern terrorists and a condemnation distributes financial largesse. Afghanistan was a likely corridor of Pakistan for allowing them to According to the anti-India and for the infiltration of ETIM fighters operate from its soil. China has anti-Afghanistan operations, into its vulnerable underbelly. used the victim card to try and these groups execute on There have been reports and protect its protégé by suggesting behalf of ISI. photographs showing Chinese that Pakistan, too, has paid patrols purportedly in the Afghan dearly in terrorist attacks. China’s open advocacy of Wakhan corridor. Pakistani terror groups is part of The ISI Conduit the strategy of keeping the Indian That China has made peace After several warnings to Army off-balance. From now to with the Pakistan-based Islamist Pakistan to curb the activities June, there is enough time for fundamentalist organisations is of terrorists operating from its Beijing and Islamabad to find obvious in the manner in which it soil, US President Donald Trump new ways to duck international shielded the head of the Lashkar- initiated the plenary meeting of sanctions and continue their e-Toiba (renamed Jamaat-ud- the Financial Action Task Force operations as before.

50 March 2018 Defence AND security alert hats off First IAF lady Air Marshal Saga Of Historic Firsts

he first lady Air First Couple to be awarded the The book presents a vivid Marshal of the Indian President’s medal together at description of the simple life Air Force Dr. Padma the same investiture parade which she had. India’s unity in Bandopadhyay takes creating a world record. diversity is well exemplified in up the pen to narrate day-to-day activities which are at Ta gripping tale of her war with times hilarious. The book will act challenges in her autobiography as a guide to prod young girls, who titled ‘THE LADY in BLUE’. are not so lucky to be born with a silver spoon and also burdened Her narrative captures the soul- with family problems, and would stirring struggle of a simple also encourage them to achieve South Indian girl from lower their cherished goals. Written in middle-income group. At a time simple language illustrating the when she should have been real-life experiences, the book playing with dolls, she chose, sheds light on the importance of instead, to take care of her ailing a well-knit family. mother. Later, she picks up studies from her brother’s books. In 2014, Limca Book of For higher studies, she had to Records recognised her fight against all odds, language extraordinary contribution barriers, and cultural differences towards empowering women. but mastered them in her own Even today, she continues inimical way and becomes the This book travels back in time to serve the underprivileged Lady of Many Firsts viz The to address the gender issues of as a doctor, counsellor and a First Lady Aviation Medicine a nearly forgotten era. Set in a teacher. The book fulfils her late Specialist in the whole of backdrop of 1960s, Dr. Padma is husband’s desire to see her Southeast Asia, The First seen juggling between the duties of charismatic life on paper Indian lady to do research in her personal life and a completely and what we have is a spine- the icy Arctic during winter contrasting life at the battlefield. chilling autobiography that months, The First Lady Air From the Indo-Pak War of 1971 inspires. Marshal and The First Lady to breaking traditional taboos at Director General Medical home, she has seen it all. Hers Team DSA takes pleasure to Services (Indian Air Force) to is a life of action, both on and off mention that Defence and name a few. Her marriage to duty. The book is full of incidents Security Alert had carried a Dr SN Bandopadhyay (late Wing narrated in the form of captivating candid interview of Air Marshal Commander of Indian Air Force) stories that led to the making of Dr. Padma Bandopadhyay (retd) was itself the stuff of legends this incredible woman of honour in its inaugural edition in and they together became The and determination. October 2009.

March 2018 DefenceDefence AANDND securitysecurity aallertert 51 get connected February 2018 February

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RNI NO. DELENG/2009/31195