PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES FROM ”PNoy” TO “PRody”

Ronald D. Holmes Pulse Asia Research Inc./ Australian National University/ May 24, 2016 OUTLINE

• On presidential transitions • Where we are coming from? • Hitting the ground running? • Implications for the bureaucracy • Where are we headed to? ON PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITIONS Transition period may be decisive, if not determinative of their political fate, like quick drying cement, a transition can rapidly lock in a new administration even before it gets moving

Haider, 1981 A few questions: • Do presidential candidates consider preparing for governing to be as important as campaigning? • How do presidential candidates and newly elected presidents undertake such preparations? • Who are the players in the transition? • What makes an effective presidential transition? Players in the Transition • Leading roles – President, legacy oriented, credit-claiming – President-elect--fresh mandate, popular choice • Supporting roles – Legislators – Members of the cabinet – Foreign states – Career service – Voters/citizens – Social institutions (media, Church) What makes for a successful transition? • “…is one in which the national interest is advanced or at least is not harmed because a transfer of authority has taken place” (Clinton and Lang 1993) What makes for a successful transition? • “People, policy and perceptions” (Meese 2003) – People with a philosophical commitment to the president elect and his/her policies; of unquestioned integrity; proven competence; team player; toughness – Policy—important versus urgent the former drawing more time, energy and political capital – Perceptions—impression, both within and outside government, of how the new president and his administration performs What makes for a successful transition? • “incoming presidents should be held accountable for nimble governance and shrewd implementation of their priorities—nimble lion, shrewd fox and a benign puppy” (Walker 1993) THE OUTGOING PRESIDENT AND ADMINISTRATION PERFORMANCE RATINGS OF PRESIDENT BENIGNO S. AQUINO III October 2010 to March 2016 /

Approve Undecided Disapprove 100

90

80 79 77 78 78 79 74 73 73 70 71 72 70 72 70 67 66 68 68 60 59 56 55 55 54 54 52 50 49

40 3839 34 31 33 30 28 30 30 30 30 30 24 25 21 21 23 22 22 23 20 18 18 18 19 18 19 18 18 16 17 16 15 14 14 14 12 10 9 9 10 10 11 7 8 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 3 4 4 0 TRUST RATINGS OF PRESIDENT BENIGNO S. AQUINO III October 2010 to April 2016 / Philippines

Big Trust Undecided Small/No Trust 90 80 80 78 80 77 76 75 75 74 74 71 72 69 68 69 68 69 70 65

60 56 53 54 53 50 49 49 50 45 39 40 40 3637 36 37 34 33 33 32 31 31 31 30 30 26 25 24 25 22 23 23 22 27 28 20 19 18 24 20 17 17 16 17 17 17 21 21 15 16 15 14 13 13 10 10 9 8 9 9 6 7 6 7 7 7 5 4 4 5 5 0 2 COMPARATIVE APPROVAL RATINGS OF PRESIDENTS ESTRADA, ARROYO & AQUINO May 1999 to March 2016 / Philippines

Estrada Arroyo Aquino

100

80 79 79 77 7878 74 74 72 72 73 73 71 70 70 68 68 67 66 63 63 61 60 59 57 5757 55 5655 55 53 53 54 53 54 51 52 49 50 50 49 49 47 45 4645 45 41 41 40 38 38

29 3030 28 27 25 262625 2626 24 23 23 22 21 20 19 16 14

0

Jul'00 Jul'02 Jul'05 Jul'06 Jul'07 Jul'08 Jul'10 Oct'10 Apr'13

Jan'13 Jun'13 Jun'14 Jan'16

Mar'11 Mar'12 Mar'13 Mar'14 Mar'15

Feb'13

Nov'12 Nov'11 Dec'13 Nov'14 Dec'15

Aug'11 Sep'12 Sep'13 Sep'14 Sep'15

Oct'04 Oct'00 Apr'01 Oct'01 Apr'02 Apr'03 Oct'05 Apr'07 Oct'07 Oct'08 Oct'09

Jun '01 Jun '04 Jan '04 Jun '05 Jun May'11 May'12

Mar '01 Mar '16 Mar Mar '00 Mar '04 Feb '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08 Mar '09 Feb '10 Mar

Sep '99 Sep '99 Dec '00 Dec '01 Dec '02 Nov '03 Aug '03 Sep '03 Nov '06 Nov '09 Aug

May '09 May May '99 May '01 May MOST URGENT NATIONAL CONCERNS November 2014 to March 2016 / Philippines (Multiple Response Allowed / In Percent)

PR1&2 National Concerns Nov14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Change*

Improving / Increasing the pay of workers 46 44 46 47 42 42 0 Reducing poverty of many 40 37 35 32 38 39 + 1 Controlling inflation 52 46 47 46 45 38 - 7 Creating more jobs 30 34 36 37 34 36 + 2 Fighting graft and corruption 36 40 39 39 34 33 - 1 in government Fighting criminality 26 22 20 25 25 29 + 4 Enforcing the law on all, whether 19 19 16 16 16 17 + 1 influential or ordinary people Increasing peace in the country 19 22 21 18 19 16 - 3 Reducing the amount of taxes paid ------11 13 + 2 Stopping the destruction and 15 13 15 13 12 10 - 2 abuse of our environment Controlling fast population growth 8 9 9 11 7 7 0 Defending the integrity of 4 5 7 7 4 6 + 2 Philippine territory against foreigners Protecting the welfare of OFWs ------7 6 - 1 Changing the Constitution 4 4 4 4 3 5 + 2 Preparing to face any kind of terrorism --- 5 4 3 3 4 + 1

*Change = Figures of March 2016 minus Figures December 2015. PERCEIVED URGENCY OF SELECTED NATIONAL ISSUES AND THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION'S PERFORMANCE RATINGS March 12 - 18, 2016 / Philippines (Row Percent)

% citing as One of Three Most Approve Undecided Disapprove NAR* National issues Urgent Issues Protecting the welfare of OFWs 6 51 35 14 +37 Responding to the needs of areas --- 49 34 17 +32 affected by calamities Fighting criminality 29 48 30 22 +26 Stopping the destruction and 10 41 40 19 +22 abuse of our environment Enforcing the law on all, whether 17 42 36 22 +20 influential or ordinary people Fighting graft and corruption 33 46 28 27 +19 in government Increasing peace in the country 16 41 35 24 +17 Defending the integrity of Philippine 6 40 37 23 +17 territory against foreigners Creating more jobs 36 37 39 24 +13 Improving/Increasing the 42 37 33 30 + 7 pay of workers Reducing the poverty of 39 24 40 36 - 12 many Filipinos Controlling inflation 38 25 34 41 - 16

Q49a-l Nais naming malaman ang inyong opinyon tungkol sa pagganap sa tungkulin ng administrasyon ni Presidente Aquino sa pagharap nito sa mga sumusunod na isyung pambansa. Sa bawat isyung mabanggit, sa pamamagitan po ng board na ito, maaari bang pakisabi ninyo kung kayo ay (SHOW AND READ RATING BOARD) sa pagganap sa tungkulin ng pambansang administrasyon sa mga isyung ito?

N o tes: (1) % A ppro ve = % T ruly A ppro ve plus % So mewhat A ppro ve; % D isappro ve = % So mewhat D isappro ve plus % T ruly D isappro ve. (2) *NAR (Net Approval Rating) = %Approve minus % Disapprove (3) Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding off or to Don't Know and Refuse responses. COMPARATIVE APPROVAL RATINGS OF THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION ON SELECTED NATIONAL ISSUES October 2010 to March 2016 / Philippines

Approval Change* Oct Mar May Nov Mar May Sep Nov Mar Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Nov Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Mar16 - 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 Dec15 Selected National Issues (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (T - S)

Protecting the welfare of OFWs ------51 51 52 51 - 1 Responding to the needs of areas ------49 49 ------49 49 0 affected by calamities Fighting criminality 62 54 60 53 57 56 66 67 63 60 58 59 54 53 47 45 50 44 45 48 + 3 Fighting graft and corruption 57 56 56 56 60 58 64 65 59 47 45 50 42 43 45 42 47 39 36 46 +10 in government Enforcing the law on all, whether 58 49 57 53 57 52 59 64 58 54 52 50 44 43 41 41 45 39 40 42 + 2 influential or ordinary people Increasing peace in the country 56 53 57 50 52 50 57 63 52 46 48 52 50 46 45 40 43 46 48 41 - 7 Stopping the destruction and 51 48 50 49 46 41 50 60 51 50 41 48 46 42 45 48 39 43 44 41 - 3 abuse of our environment Defending the integrity of Philippine ------48 47 48 50 43 39 43 46 40 - 6 territory against foreigners Creating more jobs 59 48 53 48 41 41 51 55 50 45 41 41 37 34 37 37 36 37 35 37 + 2 Improving/Increasing the 56 48 51 43 40 42 51 56 45 43 36 38 36 28 32 33 31 33 31 37 + 6 pay of workers Controlling inflation 45 37 39 32 28 28 39 40 39 34 28 26 26 22 24 29 24 24 19 25 + 6 Reducing the poverty of 47 41 40 32 32 29 39 44 39 39 31 30 32 26 28 28 26 28 25 24 - 1 many Filipinos

*Change = Figures of March 2016 minus Figures of December 2015. MISCELLANEOUS PROBES: AGREEMENT / DISAGREEMENT WITH TEST STATEMENTS March 2015 to March 2016 / Philippines (In Percent)

TEST STATEMENT Agree Undecided Disagree CURRENT CONDITION OF Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar GOVERNMENT CORRUPTION 15 15 15 15 16 15 15 15 15 16 15 15 15 15 16 We can still successfully fight the 59 61 59 57 60 16 18 16 21 18 25 21 25 22 21 corruption of officials in using public funds. TUWID NA DAAN President Aquino is/has been fulfilling --- 35 40 36 35 --- 44 35 40 37 --- 21 24 24 28 his promise to follow a straight path. MARTIAL LAW Candidly speaking, it may be necessary 17 19 20 22 19 17 14 20 22 14 65 67 60 56 67 now to have martial law to solve the many crises of the nation. HOPELESSNESS AND INTENTION TO MIGRATE This country is hopeless. 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 11 11 85 85 86 83 82 If it were only possible, I would --- 11 12 15 14 --- 14 16 22 18 --- 75 72 62 68 migrate to another country and live there.

Note: % Agree = % Very M uch Agree plus % Agree; % Disagree = % Disagree plus % Very M uch Disagree HIT THE GROUND RUNNING: ENTER “PRODY/PDIGONG” 38.6%

23.45%

21.6%

12.9%

3.4% 2016 PRESIDENTIAL PRE-ELECTION PREFERENCES

BINAY DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO DUTERTE POE ROXAS Don't Know/Refused/None

40

35 35 34 33 33 33 32 30 30 30 30 28 28 27 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 22 23 23 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 21 21 20 20 1920 20 20 20 19 17 20 19 19 19 17 16 18 16 18 15 15 17 17 14 12 10 9 10 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 U B M A R U B J U N U B S E P U B D E C P N B J A N P N B F E B A B S 2 - A B S 3 - 1 - A B S 3 - 8 - U B M A R A B S 3 - A B S 3 - A B S 4 - 5 - A B S 4 - P N B 4 - A B S 4 - A P R I 2 6 - 15 15 15 15 16 16 16- 27 6 1 6 1 3 1 6 16 15- 20 2 9 4 - 3 1 0 1 6 12- 17 16 19- 24 29 16 16 16 16 The current transition

• Inter-party • Period of time—interregnum, between election day and assumption to office, a matter of seven weeks (52 days) The transition period begins

• Coordination with outgoing administration transition team • Securing congressional support • Appointments galore • An 8-point agenda Creation of Transition Teams

Aquino Duterte • Issued Administrative Order No. 49 (s.2016) • Leoncio “Jun” Evasco • Members of the Presidential • Christopher “Bong” Go Transition Committee – Paquito Ochoa • Carlos “Sonny” Dominguez – Emmanuel Esguerra • – – • Loreto Ata – • Peter Lavina – – Herminio Coloma • Creation of Agency Transition Committeess Securing Congressional Support

• Identified speaker of the 17th Congress, Davao del Norte 1st District Representative Pantaleon ”Bebot” Alvarez • Alliance between PDP-Laban, Lakas, NPC, NUP and majority of LP representatives • Senate leadership a toss up between LP (Drilon), PDP-Laban (Pimentel) and possible third party (Sotto???) Cabinet Appointments (so far)

• Executive Secretary Salvador Medialdea • Cabinet Secretary Leoncio Evasco • Presidential Spokesperson • Acting Foreign Affairs Secretary Perfecto Yasay Jr. (Sen. to take over after a year) • Transportation Secretary • Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez • Public Works and Highways Secretary • Energy Secretary • Justice Secretary Vitaliano Aguirre II • Agriculture Secretary Emmanuel Pinol • NEDA Secretary • Labor Secretary Silvestre Bello • National Security Adviser 8 Point agenda 1. Continue and maintain the current macroeconomic policies. Reforms in tax revenue collection efforts will be complemented by reforms within the bureaucracy of tax collecting agencies. 2. Accelerate spending on infrastructure by addressing major bottlenecks, and maintain the target of setting aside 5% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) to infrastructure spending. 3. Ensure attractiveness of the Philippines to foreign investors, and enhancing competitiveness in doing business in the country. This also means reducing crime to attract investors, and increase security of businessmen and consumers. 4. Provide support services to small farmers to increase productivity and improve market access. Provide irrigation and better support services to farmers. Promote tourism in the rural areas. 5. Address bottlenecks in our land administration and management system. 6. Strengthen basic education system, and provide scholarships for tertiary education, which are relevant to private employers' needs. 7. Improve tax system by indexing tax collection to inflation rate, "to enable those who earn a little to have more in their pockets.” 8. Expand and improve implementation of the conditional cash transfer (CCT) program. Additional “reform” points • Serious fight against illegal drugs/criminality • Federalism • Population control IMPLICATIONS FOR THE BUREAUCRACY Other Presidential appointments

Sector CES Non-CES Total Line departments and 2995 1212 4207 selected attached agencies OP Attached Agencies 147 404 551 GOCCs 48 397 445 FSOs 500 500 National prosecution service 2400 2400 TOTAL 3190 4913 8103 Source: Monsod 2012 Other Presidential appointments

Policy

Politicization

Patronage

Source: Monsod 2012 Some implications

• Turn-over of senior officials • “No leadership without followers.” – “the success of organizational change may well be more dependent on the presence and characteristics of experienced organizational mem- bers, their involvement in the change process, and the congruence between the con- tent of organizational change and the opinions of these organizational members than on leadership by either managers or politicians” (Sobis, van der Berg, de Vries 2012) WHERE ARE WE HEADED TO? End of the presentation MARAMING SALAMAT PO!!! References Clinton, W.D, Lang, D. 1993. ”What makes a successful presidential transition? The case of foreign affairs.” Presidential Studies Quarterly. 23.1.41-55 Haider, D. H. 1981. “Presidential transitions: critical, if not decisive.” Public Administration Review. 41.2.-207-211 Joyce, R. 2015. “A tense handover: the 2010 presidential transition in the Philippines.”Innovations for Successful Societies, Princeton University Jubb, E.C. 2001. “Counting chickens before they’re hatched: the importance of pre-transition planning for presidential success.” Contemporary Politics. 7.3.217- 229 Meese, E. 2003. “Presidential leadership and effective transitions.” Korea Observer. 34.1.197-204 Monsod, T.C. 2012. ”Presidential appointments in the executive branch: trends, effects and implications. Sobis, I., van der Berg, F., de Vries, M. 2012. “The limits of leadership.” Journal of Public Administration and Policy. 5.1.131-154 Walker, W.E. 1993. “Presidential transitions and the entrepreneurial presidency: of lions, foxes and puppy dogs.” Presidential Studies Quarterly. 23.1.57-75