The Vulnerability of Social-Environmental Systems and Farmers’ Livelihood to Climate Change on China’S Loess Plateau

The Vulnerability of Social-Environmental

Systems and Farmers’ Livelihood to Climate

Change on China’s Loess Plateau

LI WANG

A thesis in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of

Doctor of Philosophy

Environmental Policy and Management

School of Humanities Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

December 2012 PLEASE TYPE THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Thesis/Dissertation Sheet

Surname or Family name: WANG

First name: LI Other name/s:

Abbreviation for degree as given in the University calendar: PhD

School: School of Humanities, Institute of Environmental Studies Faculty: Faculty of Arts and Social Science

Title: The Vulnerability of social-environmental systems and farmers’ livelihood to climate change on China’s Loess Plateau

Abstract 350 words maximum: (PLEASE TYPE)

Climate change is increasingly affecting social-environmental systems and rural communities across the globe. It is expected to impact upon the climatic conditions on China’s Loess Plateau, principally through prolonged variations in rainfall and droughts, pushing communities and farmers beyond their current adaptive capacity. There is an urgent need for assistance in building resilience and undertaking climate change adaptation efforts in order to reduce the vulnerability of social-environmental systems and farmers' livelihoods on the Plateau.

The social-environmental systems on China’s Loess Plateau are unique in that they are extremely dynamic and fragile due to severe deforestation, soil erosion, water stresses, and poverty, which have occurred over many centuries. Two remarkable and vast programs, the Loess Plateau Watershed Rehabilitation Program (1994-2005) by the World Bank, and the national Grain for Green (1999-current) project, to a large extent, have made the social-environmental systems on the Plateau more resilient to environmental stresses. However, neither of these two initiatives has integrated climate change scenarios into planning, design or implementation. It reveals that emerging vulnerabilities to climate change have already affected these initiatives’ long-term sustainability. For instance, trees planted died due to severe water scarcity and farmers’ were forced to re-farm retired land due to reduced farm income caused by unfavorable climatic effects. Therefore, the integration of climate change implications into the policy-making processes and adaptive management strategy are keys to enhancing the resilience of social-environmental systems on the Plateau.

The case study area of Huachi explores in greater depth the vulnerability of agriculture and farmers’ livelihoods to climate change. It identified the following adaptive strategies currently available to local farmers: cultivation of drought resistant crops and varieties; water-saving agricultural technologies; and non-farm employment. It has been found that farmers’ resilience to the adverse effects of changing climatic conditions has been improved. The results also found that main factors can enhance farmers’ adaptive capacity are farmers’ knowledge and skills; access to climate information, farming technology and infrastructure; access to markets, farmland tenure and off-farm activities. These findings have considerable relevance for the Chinese Government in their efforts to develop policies aimed at improving these factors.

Declaration relating to disposition of project thesis/dissertation

I hereby grant to the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or in part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all property rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation.

I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstracts International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only).

Nahid Sultana 01/12/2012

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I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and, to the best of my knowledge, it contains no materials previously published or written by another person or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.

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‘I hereby grant the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all proprietary rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 words abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstract International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only). I have either used no substantial portions of copyright material in my thesis or I have obtained permission to use copyright materials; where permission has not been granted I have applied/will apply for a partial restriction of the digital copy of my thesis or dissertation.’

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

It is no easy task, doing a PhD thesis. I would like to take this opportunity to express my gratitude to all those people who have given their invaluable support.

In particular, I am deeply indebted to my supervisor, A/P John Merson and co- supervisor, Visiting Fellow Mr. Sandy Booth. They are very generous with their time, knowledge and encouragement, professionally assisting me in each phase to complete the thesis.

In addition, I should like to thank Professor LIU Yonggong from the College of Humanities and Development at China Agricultural University, who gave me important and indispensable advice on my thesis both in person and on the phone. Many thanks also to Mr. ZHAO Hua from Gansu Water Resource and Soil Conservation Bureau, and Mr. WEI Guoji from Huachi Water Resource and Soil Conservation Bureau, for helping to arrange the fieldwork for me; and particularly to local farmers in Huachi for their remarkable hospitality and for their participation in interviews and discussions.

This thesis was financially supported by the ‘Australian Leadership Awards Scholarship’, which was offered by the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID). The Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences at the University of New South Wales further financed my fieldwork in China in 2009. I gave my great thanks to these organisations.

And finally, but not least, I’d include my friends, colleagues, and my family who are highly appreciated for their spiritual support, particularly my husband, ZHANG Hui to whom this thesis is dedicated.

Despite all the above support I received for this thesis, I am solely responsible for any errors and/or omissions.

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ABSTRACT

Program (1994-2005) by the World Bank, and the national Grain for Green (1999- current) project, to a large extent, have made the social-environmental systems on the Plateau more resilient to environmental stresses. However, neither of these two initiatives has integrated climate change scenarios into planning, design or implementation. It reveals that emerging vulnerabilities to climate change have already affected these initiatives’ long-term sustainability. For instance, trees planted died due to severe water scarcity and farmers’ were forced to re-farm retired land due to reduced farm income caused by unfavorable climatic effects.

Therefore, the integration of climate change implications into the policy-making processes and adaptive management strategy are keys to enhancing the resilience of social-environmental systems on the Plateau.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION ...... 1 1.1 OVERVIEW ...... 1 1.2 RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND DESIGN ...... 4 1.3 RESEARCH JUSTIFICATION ...... 9 1.4 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ...... 12 1.4.1 Case study ...... 12 1.4.2 Data Collection and Analysis ...... 15 1.5 THESIS STRUCTURE ...... 21 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ...... 26 2.1 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FACTS ...... 26 2.1.1 The Climate system ...... 26 2.1.2 The facts and trends of climate change ...... 28 2.1.3 Climatic variability and uncertainty ...... 34 2.1.4 Impacts on human-environmental systems ...... 36 2.2 VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 38 2.2.1 The concepts ...... 38 2.2.2 Conventional frameworks for assessing vulnerability ...... 44 2.2.3 The conceptual model of vulnerability ...... 46 2.2.4 Analytical framework for vulnerability approach ...... 53 2.3 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 58 2.3.1 The concepts of adaptation ...... 58 2.3.2 Adaptation and mitigation ...... 61 2.3.3 Adaptation types and forms ...... 63 2.3.4 Adaptation paradigm to climate change ...... 69 2.3.5 Adaptive management in climatic uncertainty ...... 71 2.3.6 Climate adaptation policy: a top-down or bottom-up approach ...... 76 2.4 CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURAL ADAPTATION ...... 80 2.4.1 Agriculture sector exposed to climate change ...... 80 2.4.2 Climate change and food security ...... 82 2.4.3 Crop yields and food price affected by climate change ...... 84 2.4.4 Adaptation practices to limit impacts on agriculture ...... 88 2.5 CHAPTER SUMMARY ...... 90 CHAPTER THREE CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS IN CHINA ...... 93 3.1 RECENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA ...... 93 3.1.1 Observed warmer temperature ...... 93 3.1.2 Observed variations in precipitation pattern ...... 95 3.1.3 Changes of glaciers and sea level ...... 98 3.1.4 Future climatic trends in China ...... 100 3.2 CLIMATE CHANG POLICY IN CHINA ...... 104 3.2.1 UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and China ...... 104 3.2.2 National climate policy for climate change ...... 106 3.2.3 China’s actions on mitigation and adaptation ...... 109 3.3 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CHINA’S AGRICULTURE ...... 115 3.3.1 China’s agriculture ...... 115 3.3.2 Crop production under different climate change scenarios ...... 116 3.3.3 Impacts of water scarcity on agriculture ...... 123 3.3.4 Uncertainty of crop production ...... 127 3.4 RESPONSES IN AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA ...... 128 3.4.1 Adjusting the structure of farming systems ...... 129 3.4.2 Land-use change in agriculture ...... 134

3.4.3 Infrastructure development and intensive management ...... 137 3.4.4 Agricultural insurance ...... 141 3.5 CHAPTER SUMMARY ...... 144 CHAPTER FOUR: NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT ON CHINA’S LOESS PLATEAU ...... 147 4.1 THE LOESS PLATEAU: THE FRAGILE NATURAL RESOURCE SYSTEM ...... 147 4.1.1 Attributes of the natural resource systems on the Plateau ...... 148 4.1.2 Climate variations of the Loess Plateau ...... 153 4.1.3 Future climatic trends and impacts ...... 158 4.2 CONSEQUENCE OF LONG-TERM OVERUSE OF NATURAL RESOURCES ...... 159 4.2.1 Soil erosion ...... 159 4.2.2 Land use, water management and agricultural productivity ...... 167 4.2.3 Socio-economic vulnerability on the Loess Plateau ...... 170 4.3 VEGETATION RESTORATION AND SOIL CONSERVATION: TWO BIG PROGRAMS TO IMPROVE THE NATURAL RESOURCE SYSTEMS ON THE PLATEAU ...... 171 4.3.1 ‘Loess Plateau Watershed Rehabilitation Program’ - World Bank ...... 172 4.3.2 The ‘Grain for Green’ Program on the Loess Plateau ...... 186 4.4 CHAPTER SUMMARY ...... 193 CHAPTER FIVE: AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS’ LIVELIHOOD IN HUACHI COUNTY ...... 195 5.1 PHYSICAL FEATURES OF HUACHI ...... 195 5.1.1 Geographical attribute ...... 195 5.1.2 Soil erosion and conservation approaches ...... 199 5.1.3 Land use changes ...... 201 5.2 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS AND VARIABILITY ...... 203 5.2.1 Climate characteristics ...... 203 5.2.2 Changing climatic conditions ...... 206 5.2.3 Farmers’ perception of climatic changes ...... 209 5.3 CONSTRAINTS TO FARMING ACTIVITIES AND FARMERS’ LIVELIHOOD ...... 212 5.3.1 ‘Problem tree analysis’ ...... 212 5.3.2 Dryland farming: high dependence on climatic conditions ...... 214 5.3.3 Declined land productivity ...... 217 5.3.4 Unstable crop markets and prices ...... 222 5.3.5 Consequence on farmers’ livelihood ...... 222 5.4 CHAPTER SUMMARY ...... 227 CHAPTER SIX: LOCAL EMERGING VULNERABILITIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTIVE RESPONSES ...... 229 6.1 VULNERABILITY OF FARMING ACTIVITIES AND RURAL LIVELIHOOD ...... 229 6.1.1 Vulnerability of farming activities to climate change ...... 229 6.1.2 Vulnerability of farmers’ livelihood to climate change ...... 233 6.2 FARMERS’ RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ...... 235 6.2.1 Crop pattern changes ...... 235 6.2.2 Land use change: terracing ...... 239 6.2.3 Water-saving farming technology: mulching ...... 249 6.2.4 Rainwater harvesting for drinking & small scale irrigation ...... 257 6.3 CHAPTER SUMMARY ...... 262 CHAPTER SEVEN DISCUSSION ...... 263 7.1 NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT: SOME EMERGING VULNERABILITIES DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 263 7.1.1 Afforestation for restoration purposes ...... 264 7.1.2 Compensation to farmers for land retirement ...... 268 7.1.3 Land closure and grazing ban: allowing natural resource systems

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rehabilitation ...... 270 7.2 DETERMINANTS OF FARMERS’ CAPACITY TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 273 7.2.1 Farmers’ perception of climate change ...... 274 7.2.2 Farmers’ knowledge and skills ...... 275 7.2.3 Farming infrastructure and technologies ...... 276 7.2.4 Access to information ...... 278 7.2.5 Institutional support ...... 279 7.3 EMERGING VULNERABILITIES OF RURAL LIVELIHOODS TO CLIMATE CHANGE ... 281 7.3.1 Subsistent agriculture for local smallholder farmers ...... 281 7.3.2 Farmers’ off-farm work: can it secure farmers a sustainable livelihood? .... 286 7.3.3 Farmers’ other income sources: livestock & orchards ...... 291 7.4 SOME POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS TO ENHANCE FARMERS’ RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 293 7.4.1 Land transfer for more economic and sustainable agriculture ...... 294 7.4.2 Water-saving agriculture to improve water use efficiency ...... 298 7.5 GOVERNANCE: INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY, POLICIES AND MANAGEMENT TO COPE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 301 7.5.1 China’s local government response to climate change ...... 302 7.5.2 Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into policies ...... 305 7.6 CHAPTER SUMMARY ...... 307 CHAPTER EIGHT CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 310 8.1 CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPLICATIONS FOR NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT ...... 310 8.1.1 Climate change: a vital challenge for natural resource management ...... 310 8.1.2 Adaptive management of natural resources: building resilience to climate change ...... 311 8.2 ADAPTATION STRATEGIES: REDUCING FARMERS’ VULNERABILITY ...... 315 8.2.1 Agricultural technologies for climate change adaptation ...... 316 8.2.2 Farmers’ perception and access to information of climate change ...... 318 8.2.3 Role of agricultural policy in adaptation ...... 320 8.2.4 Farmers’ off-farm work: implications to the agricultural sector and food security ...... 321 8.2.5 Institutional capacity to adapt to climate change ...... 322 8.3 RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 323 REFERENCES ...... 326 APPENDICES ...... 382 APPENDIX A. ETHICS APPROVAL ...... 382 APPENDIX B. INTERVIEW GUIDE FOR THE SEMI-STRUCTURED INTERVIEW ...... 383 APPENDIX C. TOPICS AND OUTLINE FOR THE TWO FOCUS GROUPS ...... 384 APPENDIX D. FARMERS’ QUESTIONNAIRE ...... 385

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 The outline of thesis research design ...... 7 Figure 1.2 SWOT analysis with its four elements in a 2x2 matrix ...... 19 Figure 1.3 Overview of thesis structure ...... 22 Figure 2.1 Schematic view of the components of the global climate system, their processes and interactions ...... 27 Figure 2.2 Climate Change: processes, characteristics and threats ...... 29 Figure 2.3 Global annual average temperatures and CO2 concentration continue to climb from 1880-2007 ...... 30 Figure 2.4 Global annual-mean surface air temperature changes based on the period 1951-1980 ...... 31 Figure 2.5 Annual and five-year running mean precipitation changes for three latitude bands from 1900 to 2000 ...... 33 Figure 2.6 The relationships between the concept of vulnerability and its defining concepts ...... 40 Figure 2.7 Conceptual model of vulnerability ...... 48 Figure 2.8 Analytical framework for vulnerability assessment ...... 53 Figure 2.9 Differentiated choice from individuals/groups’ to adapt to changes ... 65 Figure 2.10 Places of Adaptation in Climate Change Issues ...... 70 Figure 2.11 The Adaptive Management Cycle ...... 75 Figure 2.12 ‘Top-down’ and ‘bottom-up’ approaches used to inform and integrate climate adaptation policy ...... 79 Figure 2.13 Cereal prices (percent of baseline) along with global mean temperature change for major modeling studies ...... 85 Figure 2.14 The world prices (USD/metric ton) of major grains in 2000 and 2050 with and without projected climate change effects ...... 86 Figure 2.15 Additional millions of people at risk from hunger compared to no climate change reference case under the seven Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios ...... 87 Figure 3.1 Changes of annual mean surface air temperature (temperature anomaly/ºC) of China 1905-2001 ...... 94 Figure 3.2 Standardized anomalies of annual precipitation over China in 1956- 2002 ...... 96 Figure 3.3 Regional precipitation changes in annual total precipitation amount, and frequency, in China 1960-2000 ...... 97 Figure 3.4 Distribution of glaciers in source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers ...... 99 Figure 3.5 Schematic illustrations of the four IPCC SREC climate change scenarios storylines ...... 101 Figure 3.6 Economic development, population growth and CO2 emissions in China, 1971-2000 ...... 110 Figure 3.7 Total and per capita GHG emissions (in CO2 equivalent) of the top ten global CO2 emitters, 2006 ...... 110 Figure 3.8 Sources of China’s GHG emissions by sectors, 2005 ...... 111 Figure 3.9 China’s GDP, Agricultural GDP and ratio of Agricultural GDP/GDP ...... 115 Figure 3.10 Changes of cereal yields (tones per hectare) during the period 1971- 2007 in China ...... 118 Figure 3.11 China’s cereal supply per capita changes during period 1978-2000

and ...... 123 future projections during 2000-2080 ...... 123 Figure 3.12 Irrigation areas and percentage of irrigated cropping areas in China ...... 124 Figure 3.13 Projected total water availability, water availability for agriculture and potential irrigation requirement from cereal crops ...... 126 Figure 3.14 Projected northwards expansion of the northern boundary of ...... 131 winter wheat farming areas in northeast China ...... 131 Figure 3.15 Spatial distribution of present average annual runoff in the Yangtze River Basin ...... 132 Figure 4.1 Geographical locations of the Loess Plateau (a) and loess depth and distribution (b), China ...... 148 Figure 4.2 Typical gullies and ‘Yuan’ (wide areas on top of deep slopes) before vegetation rehabilitation in northern part of the Loess Plateau ...... 149 Figure 4.3 The long-term overuse of natural resources and ecosystem deterioration in the Loess Plateau China ...... 151 Figure 4.4 The trend of mean annual temperature on the Loess Plateau in China from 1958-2008 ...... 155 Figure 4.5 Annual temperature anomalies on the Loess Plateau in China from 1958-2008 ...... 156 Figure 4.6 The trend of annual rainfall on the Loess Plateau, China from 1956 to 2008 ...... 157 Figure 4.7 Distribution of Upper Reaches and Middle Reaches of the Yellow River on the Loess Plateau region ...... 164 Figure 4.8 Sediment load of the Yellow River (Huayuankou Station), annual precipitation and human activity from 1919 to 1999 on the Loess Plateau. 166 Figure 4.9(a) the typical slopeland before the World Bank project and (b) leveled terrace land after project implementation ...... 177 Figure 4.10 The designing of check-dams to conserve soil and water on the Loess Plateau ...... 179 Figure 4.11 Comparison of Farmers’ Per Capita Net Income in the World Bank project and Non-project areas ...... 183 Figure 5.1 Geographical location of Huachi County in Loess Plateau ...... 196 Figure 5.2 Huichi County, the typical gullied region of the Loess Plateau ...... 196 Figure 5.3 Area of Zhoujiagou Watershed in Huachi County before any conservation programs in Huachi, in 1996 (a), and after, in 2009 (b)...... 201 Figure 5.4 Monthly distribution patterns of precipitation and evaporation in Huachi (monthly precipitation data from Huachi meteorological station 1971-2008) ...... 204 Figure 5.5 The trend of local annual precipitation and local temperature from 1965-2006 ...... 207 Figure 5.6 ‘Problem tree analysis’ of farming and livelihood in Huachi ...... 213 Figure 5.7 Annual and five-year running average of areas farmed and grain production over the last six decades in Huachi County ...... 215 Figure 5.8 Cultivation on the slopeland in a local community in Huachi ...... 218 Figure 5.9 Plowing by donkey on the farmland in Huachi ...... 221 Figure 5.10 The small plough machine used by some farmers for farming in Huachi ...... 221 Figure 5.11 (a) Huachi County’s smallholder farmers’ income in the last two decades: the trend of annual income per capita; (b) the changes of percentage

of each income source ...... 225 Figure 6.1 Average percentages of the main crop planting areas for farmer households (n= 35) in the 1980s and 2008 ...... 236 Figure 6.2 (a) Converting suitable slopeland into level terracing by manual labour and bulldozer ...... 240 Figure 6.2 (b) large areas of level terrace for rainfed farming in Huachi in 2009 ...... 240 Figure 6.3 Terrace cross-section showing dimensional elements ...... 241 Figure 6.6 Four typical mulching methods used as rain-fed farming practices in Huachi County ...... 252 Figure 6.7 Maize planted on DRM and no mulching dryland ...... 252 Figure 6.8 Mulching by manual labour (left) and by mulching machine (right) for DRM...... 255 Figure 6.9 The diagram of the water harvesting system widely used by farming households in Huachi County ...... 259

LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1 Projected global average surface warming at the end of 21st century ... 32 Table 2.2 Negative and positive impacts of climate change on multi-human systems ...... 37 Table 2.3 Reviews of antecedent and successor approaches of vulnerability research ...... 39 Table 2.4 Collective & individual vulnerability to climate change ...... 41 Table 2.5 Two interpretations of vulnerability within climate change research ... 43 Table 2.6 The Difference between Mitigation policies and Adaptation polices ... 62 Table 2.7 Examples of reactive and proactive adaptation to climate change ...... 64 Table 2.8 Some examples of adaptation initiatives & practice by regions to climate change ...... 67 Table 2.9 Some potential impacts of climate change on food systems and food security ...... 83 Table 2.10 Projected impacts of increasing temperature on global agriculture ..... 84 Table 2.11 Types and examples of adaptation to different extents within agriculture ...... 89 Table 3.1 Annual and seasonal trends of precipitation amount and frequency in China 1960-2000 ...... 96 Table 3.3 A2 and B2 Climate scenarios and CO2 concentration for China’s climate predication ...... 102 Table 3.4 The projection of temperature and precipitation of China by climate change models of NCC and IAP (compared by 30 years avarege 1961-1990) ...... 103 Table 3.5 China’s climate policy, actions, framework and authorities involved ...... 108 Table 3.6 Impacts of climate change on crop yields under various climate scenarios in China relative to 1961-1990 ...... 120 Table 3.7 China’s future food supply under climate change scenarios ...... 122 Table 4.2 Variations of annual rainfall on the Loess Plateau, China from 1956 to 2008 ...... 156 Table 4.4 Soil erosion intensity on the Loess Plateau 160 Table 4.5 Some example of soil losses in one particular storm event detected by different sites on the Loess Plateau ...... 162 Table 4.6 Population increases, annual precipitation change on the Loess Plateau and annual sediment loads of the Yellow River from the 1920s to 1990s 165 Table 4.7 Average crop yields in different types of farmland in Danangou Catchment on the Loess Plateau ...... 168 Table 4.8 Supply and demand of rainfall for winter wheat and maize in a semiarid region (long-term mean annual rainfall 561mm) of Gansu Province in the Loess Plateau ...... 169 Table 5.1 Classficiation and properties of land resource in Huachi ...... 198 Table 5.2 County level land use pattern comparison between the years 1982 and 2008 ...... 201 Table 5.3 Estimated land use change at the household level* in Fanzhuang Village in Huachi from 1999 to 2009 (n=35) ...... 202 Table 5.4 Variability of local precipitation and temperature from 1965-2006 ... 206 Table 5.5 A representation of what the farmers remembered the weather from

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1960s to 2000s ...... 211 Table 6.1 Vulnerabilities of dryland farming activities to impacts of climate change and other factors in Huachi County ...... 231 Table 6.2 Drought resistance of the main crops on the Loess Plateau ...... 237 Table 6.3 Crops planted by farmers on different land types according to expected weather conditions in the 1980s and the 2000s ...... 238 Table 6.4 Design guidelines for terraces in Huachi County ...... 241 Table 6.5 Estimated amount of rainwater in once in 10 years, and once in 20 years rainstorms in the Loess Plateau ...... 242 Table 6.6 SWOT analysis of terracing in coping with climatic stressors in Huachi ...... 242 Table 6.7 Market price, average yield and crop resilience to drought on slopeland and terraced land in Huachi County ...... 245 Table 6.8 SWOT analysis of film mulching technologies for rain-fed farming experiencing adverse impacts of climate change in Huachi ...... 253 Table 6.9 SWOT analysis of rainwater harvesting system used for drinking water and small-scale irrigation in Huachi County ...... 260

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Abbreviations

ACIA Arctic Climate Impact Assessment CNCCP China National Climate Change Program EIA United States Energy Information Administration FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations GDP Gross Domestic Product GFG Grain for Green Program GHG Greenhouse Gases HPRS Household Production Responsibility System ICZM Integrated coastal zone management IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change MEA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MWO World Meteorological Organisation NCCCC National Coordination Committee on Climate Change of the People’s Republic of China NCGCCS National Coordination Group on Climate Change Strategy of the People’s Republic of China NDRC National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China NGOs Non-governmental Organisation NLGCC National Leading Group on Climate Change of the People’s Republic of China OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PES Payment for Environmental Services RMB Renminbi SFA State Forestry Administration of the People’s Republic of China SLCP China’s Sloping Land Conversation Program UNCED United Nations Conference on Environment and Development UNFCCC The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

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USDA United States Department of Agriculture USDI United States Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management WB The World Bank WSCF Water-soil Conserving Farming WWF World Wildlife Fund

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION

1.1 Overview

This thesis is an investigation of smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to climate change and their ability to cope with the adverse impacts of both current and future climate change on China’s Loess Plateau. Much research into climate change vulnerability stresses that it is inevitably the vulnerable farmers who suffer the most from the adverse impacts of climate change, particularly in developing countries (Adger & Kelly, 1999; Adger et al., 2001, 2006; Smit & Pilifosova,

2003; Downing, 2003; IPCC, 2007c). Farmers have to adapt their livelihood to changing climatic conditions without options (Smith & Lenhart, 1996; Thomas,

2008; Ngigi, 2009). A better understanding of the nature of vulnerability, including its components and determinants in the context of climate change, is needed to understand farmers’ adaptive capacity and how this might be improved particularly at the local level (Yohe & Tol, 2002; Ford & Smit, 2004; Adger et al.,

2005; Smit & Wandel, 2006). China’s Loess1 Plateau, one of the country’s most important traditional farming regions, with a population of over 80 million, is highly vulnerable to climatic variations. Due to thousands of years of overexploitation, the Plateau became an impoverished and fragile environmental and social system, with massive soil erosion, ecosystem degradation and poverty

(Jiang, 1997; Liu, 1999; Fu & Chen, 2000; Jiang et al., 2003; Wei et al., 2006a;

Chen et al., 2007). On top of this, climate change has brought decreased rainfall,

1 A Wikipedia definition of Loess: ‘…an aeolian sediment formed by the accumulation of wind- blown silt, typically in the 20-50 micrometre size range, twenty percent or less clay and the balance equal parts sand and silt that are loosely cemented by calcium carbonate. It is ususlly homogeneous and highly porous and is traversed by vertical capillaries that permit the sediment to fracture and form vertical bluffs’.

warmer temperatures, and more frequent drought events. This adds to the existing stresses, further increasing the vulnerability of the social-environmental system and farmers’ livelihoods. Unfortunately, there is a limited understanding of how climate variability currently impacts on this social-environmental system. This is where the research and insights provided by this thesis should be particularly valuable.

The effects of climate change on agriculture are deemed to be among the most crucial impacts on the various environmental and social systems (Easterling, 1996;

Reilly et al., 2003; Kurukulasuriya et al., 2006; Howden et al., 2007).

Vulnerability of agriculture to climate change is amplified through climate variability and its impacts on natural resources, including water and land which are fundamental for the productivity of farming systems (Schimmelpfennig et al.,

1996; Reilly et al., 2003; Fischlin et al., 2007). The United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change 1992 (UNFCCC) states that agriculture becomes particularly vulnerable to climate change for those least able to cope or adapt.

Dinar et al. (2008) argue that rural poverty will be intensified by the adverse impacts on agriculture. Given the potentially large direct impacts on crop yields, adaptation will be essential to limit losses and adverse impacts on agriculture and farmers’ livelihood (Reilly & Schimmelpfennig, 1999; Easterling, 1996; Food and

Agricultural Organization of the United Nation-FAO, 2007). China’s Loess

Plateau with its high vulnerability to climate change is no exception. Nevertheless, there has been little research on farmers’ adaptation to climate change and the underlying impacts of climate variability on farmers’ activities and livelihoods on the Plateau. Hence, there’s an urgent need to examine how farmers perceive

climate change, their adoption of adaptation measures, and the factors influencing farmers’ decisions to adapt to new farming practices or change their livelihood strategy in face of declining productivity. Given the identified research area, this thesis has the potential to provide a better practical understanding of the grassroots situation for policymakers so they can develop policies and programs aimed at promoting adaptation to climate change in agriculture and promoting more sustainable rural livelihoods in the Loess Plateau region.

The thesis will examine both ‘top-down’ and ‘bottom-up’ approaches to the issues of climate change. Top-down studies on interactions between climate change and the social-environmental system start by developing climate change scenarios, and estimating impacts through scenario analysis (Carter et al. 1994; Parry & Carter

1998; Dessai & Hulme, 2004). The information gathered through the top-down approach has limited applicability. This is because there are large uncertainties when applying climate models at these scales and the large number of potential interactions between different system components (EPA of the United States website, 2011). In contrast, the bottom-up approach of climate change and adaptation starts ‘at the bottom of the impacted system and explores how resilient or robust this system is to changes and variations in climate variables, and how adaptation can make the system less prone to uncertain and largely unpredictable variations and trends in the climate’ (Dessai & Sluijs, 2007, p.6). The bottom-up approach takes on a vulnerability perspective where it is possible for adaptation strategies to involve all the aspects of localized socio-economic policy, farmers’ perceptions, and elements of decision-making (Bryant et al., 2000; Wall & Smit,

2005; Belliveau et al., 2006). Therefore, it shifts the focus of research from an

estimation of impacts, to gaining an understanding of farm-level or individual farmers’ adaptation and decision-making. Most studies on climate impacts and vulnerability studies carried out in China, however, have used the top-down approach. Given this identified gap, this thesis will explore actual adaptation behaviours based on farmers’ decisions in the face of changing climatic conditions through a ‘bottom-up’ approach.

1.2 Research Questions and Design

Research questions

This thesis will focus on how a farmers’ livelihood is particularly vulnerable to climate change, particularly on the semi-arid Loess Plateau. Vulnerability is caused not only by climate variability itself, but also the consequence of its effects on physical, social and economic processes (known as ‘non-climatic’ factors) of a system (Adger, 2006; Füssel & Klein, 2006). Therefore, ‘understanding how these processes contribute to vulnerability and adaptive capacity in the context of current climate variations and extremes can yield insights regarding vulnerability to future climate change; this can help to guide adaptive strategies in the future’

(Leary et al., 2008a, p.4). Given this starting point, the central problem to be addressed in this thesis is:

How can smallholder farmers be made more resilient in the face of

climate change on China’s Loess Plateau?

In order to answer the central question accurately, a supplementary question is developed:

Why are smallholder farmers vulnerable to climate change? And, how

can farmers’ adaptive capacity be enhanced?

This thesis therefore aims to examine both the vulnerability of farming activities and farmers’ livelihoods to climate change. It also outlines some adaptation strategies that make farmers more resilient to the changing climate at a local community level on the Plateau. Guided by the research questions, a number of issues are explored and analyzed in this study, including: climatic variation, farming activities, farmers’ livelihood systems, available adaptation strategies, determinants of farmers’ adaptive capacity, and the role of governments in supporting farmers’ adaptations.

In this thesis vulnerability refers to ‘The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes’ (IPCC, 2001b, p.995). The vulnerability, as a ‘start- point’ concept, examines the current inability to cope with internal and external stressors of the changing climate conditions of a system (O’Brien et al., 2004). It then proposes to ‘identify policies or measures that reduce vulnerability, increase adaptive capacity, or illuminate adaptation options and constraints’, by coming to

‘an understanding on the distribution and causes of vulnerability’ (O’Brien et al.,

2004, p.2).

In this thesis adaptive capacity refers to ‘the potential or ability of a system, region, or community to adapt to the effects or impacts of climate change’ (Smit

and Pilofosova, 2001, p.881). It is the ‘ability or capacity to respond successfully to climate variability and change, and includes adjustments in both behavior and in resources and technologies’ (Adger et al., 2007, p.727).

Based on the central research problem, five basic research questions are formed to guide the data collection and analyses in this bottom-up case study:

1. What are the changing climatic conditions at the local community level,

based on both climatic record and farmers’ perceptions?

2. Why are smallholder farmers significantly affected by climatic changes at

the local community, in terms of physical, social and economic conditions?

3. What are farmers’ responses and strategies to the adverse impacts of

climatic changes?

4. How can local government provide support to reduce the vulnerability of

farmers’ farming activities and livelihood to climatic changes?

The case study of a selected rural community on China’s Loess Plateau enables an in-depth observation and investigation of all these research questions.

Research design

According to Yin (2009) there are three types of case study research; exploratory, descriptive and explanatory. This research uses a descriptive single-case study; observations and investigations were conducted in one selected county, namely

Huachi - the semi-arid region of Gansu Province. The rationale for the selection of a single case study is that it has a representative characteristic of the vulnerable communities exposed to the adverse impacts of climate change. The design of the

case study in Huachi is as shown in Figure 1.1.

Figure 1.1 The outline of thesis research design

The preliminary stage includes: formulating the theory and design of the research questions; selecting the case study; and designing the data collection protocol.

The very first stage is to define the scope of the case study, and design and plan the research strategy. It starts with theory development and formulation, based on the broader context of ‘community adaptation to climate change’ in this case.

Research questions are thus proposed to assess the ‘local rural communities’ vulnerability to climate change’ as well as ‘their adaptive practices used to cope with the adverse impacts’.

The Loess Plateau has been chosen as the pilot study region due to its unique environmental and socio-economical significance to China, and its increasing vulnerability to climate change in the last few decades. The Huachi County has been selected as the study unit as it represents one of the typical vulnerable poor

rural areas.

The preliminary stage also includes the design of a detailed data collection protocol based on the identified key research questions and study context. The protocol developed for the fieldwork in Huachi included the following key components: (i) an overview of the case study; (ii) field work procedures; (iii) case study questions; and (iv) a guide for the case study data analysis.

The second stage focuses on the analysis of data collected from the field survey.

Yin (2009) recommends that good preparation work is essential for collecting useful data. The preparation for the fieldwork was initiated in early 2009. The preparatory work included: applying for approval from the Human Research

Ethics Advisory (HREA) Panels in the University of New South Wales (see

Appendix A: Ethics Approval Letter); developing a detailed fieldwork itinerary; choosing the key methods for conducting fieldwork; and formulating questions and outlines for the interviews and household questionnaires.

The fieldwork involved collecting statistical data, policy documents, and reports, and conducting a field survey from August to November 2009 in Huachi County.

Both group discussions and questionnaires were carried out with farmers in one selected village named Fanzhuang in close cooperation with the Huachi County

Water and Soil Conservation Bureau. Data collection tools included secondary data collection; semi-structured face-to-face individual interviews; focus-group discussions; and farmers’ questionnaires that were employed to address all the basic research questions. The data collected from the fieldwork was categorized as

climate data (precipitation, temperature, evaporation, etc.), interview data, and documentation (e.g. policy documents). The climate data that was suitable to be statistically analyzed was coded and entered into SPSS (Statistical Program for

Social Sciences; version 18.0). Qualitative data, including policy document reviews, interview data from group discussions, or institutional interviews, were also coded and analyzed.

The final stage was to draw conclusions based on evidence developed through data analysis and interpretation followed by key findings and recommendations arising from the study.

1.3 Research Justification

Why should farmers’ vulnerability to climate change and their adaptive capacity in response to climate change be studied?

Climate change is already happening and its impacts are growing worldwide

(ACIA, 2004; IPCC, 2007b). The degree of impacts will depend on the nature, rate and severity of the changes in climate (IPCC, 2007a). They will also depend on physical, social, economic, and government processes that determine who and what are exposed to climate hazards, their sensitivities and their capacities to respond (Leary et al., 2008b). Therefore, urgent action needs to be taken in order to respond to these on-going changes.

A series of complex socio-economic and environmental consequences are resulting from climate change. There have been substantial advances in our shared

understanding of climate change, including its causes, consequences and remedies, particularly through scientific research and assessments over the last two decades.

The climate, which is now even more variable, changeable and uncertain, could further test the limits of humankind’s ability to adapt.

Adaptation, in the context of climate change, includes actions that people take in response to actual or projected changes in climate, to minimize adverse impacts or take advantage of the opportunities created by climate change (Tompkins &

Adger, 2003). Adaptation to climate change can therefore be reactive, undertaken in response to the impacts of current climate variability/climate change; or anticipatory, implemented before the impacts are observed (Klein, 2002a).

How should adaptation to a changing climate be more integrated into adaptation strategies to reduce farmers’ vulnerability at the local level? In order to explore the core issue that is raised in this study, detailed information is required on how communities have experienced and addressed climatic hazards in the past, what conditions are likely to change, and what constraints and opportunities there are for future adaptation.

The Loess Plateau, located in northwest China, is one of the most eroded regions in the world due to its highly erodible soils, steep slopes, heavy rainstorms, droughts and poor vegetation cover (Fu & Chen, 2000; Jiang et al., 2003; Wei et al., 2006a, 2006b; Chen et al., 2007). The ecosystem of the Loess Plateau has been degraded as a consequence of long-term intensive human activities including land cultivation and deforestation. Farmers in the region have thus faced

increasing poverty as a result of this environmental degradation, as well as from poor agricultural productivity.

Both the Chinese Government and international development organizations have endeavored to bring the fragile plateau back towards its previous balanced ecosystem through rehabilitation schemes, including the significant ‘Grain for

Green’ program and the World Bank’s ‘Loess Plateau Watershed Rehabilitation

Program’. Achievements in environmental regeneration as well as improvements in the livelihood of farmers, have to some extent, been witnessed on the plateau as a result of the implementation of these efforts over the past few decades.

Nevertheless, future climate change may have even greater impacts on the fragile ecosystem of the Loess Plateau. It is adding to the pressures of unsustainable natural resource management and is expected to substantially disrupt many of these systems, as well as the goods and services that they provide (MEA, 2005;

IPCC, 2007c). The effects of climate change have already influenced this region over the past 50 years. A significant decline in precipitation and a warmer surface temperature have been detected, and are expected to continue increasing in the next 50-100 years (NDRC, 2007). Extreme drought events have been more frequent on the plateau. Such unfavorable changes in climate-change related rainfall and temperature patterns have greatly affected crop yields and hence farmers’ income. Climate change, thus, makes environmental and social systems extremely unstable and vulnerable on the Plateau. There should be a new call for policy makers and local community to build up the resilience and adaptive capacity to cope with the adverse influences of climate change and make the social-ecological system more sustainable.

1.4 Research Methodology

1.4.1 Case study

Case studies are one of several ways of doing social science research. Yin (2009) proclaims that the more the research seeks to explain ‘why’ or ‘how’, and requires an extensive and ‘in-depth’ description of social phenomenon, the more relevant the case study method will be. This approach is employed in this research to answer the key questions of why smallholder farmers who rely on dryland farming are vulnerable to climate change, and how they are adapting to the adverse impact of climate change.

A case study is thus a strategic qualitative research methodology (Noor, 2008), which gives a detailed examination of a single example (Abercrombie et al., 1984;

Flyvbjerg, 2004). It is an empirical inquiry that explores a contemporary phenomenon in depth and within its real-life context, using various sources of evidence (Yin, 2009).

Case study methodologies are widely used in social science to answer questions of why and how and have been used to address research requiring context- dependent analysis (Roth, 1989; Baxter & Jack, 2008; Yin, 2009). Patton’s (1987) description of a case study as a means to examine an area of interest in depth is particularly appropriate. Noor (2008, p.1602) further explained that ‘case studies become particularly useful where one needs to understand a certain problem or situation in great-depth, and where one can identify cases rich in information’.

Case studies are especially relevant for the development and testing (or

falsification) of hypotheses (Cavaye, 1996; Shanks, 2002; Yin, 2009). It is accepted that individual example narratives is a great source of rich knowledge from which to develop new ideas and hypotheses (Flyvbjerg, 2004).

However, individual case studies have been criticized by some for having a lack of scientific rigor and reliability, and thus for their limited applicability to broader generalizations (Barzelay, 1993; Lewin et al., 2009; Pope & Mays, 2009). It has also been argued that to summarize and develop general propositions and theories from the observations, based on specific individual case studies, is often problematic (Diefenbach, 2009; Pope & Mays, 2009).

Case study methodologies, however, aim to provide a detailed understanding of processes and enable the researcher to gain a focus on depth and a deep understanding of certain phenomenon or a series of events in a natural setting

(Roth, 1989; Gummesson, 1991; Walsham, 1995; Andrade, 2009). It can also provide a more rounded picture due to the many sources of evidence used (Yin,

2009). Moreover, case study methodologies allow for a generalized understanding through the insights that emerge (Noor, 2008).

Why choose China’s Loess Plateau as a case?

According to Yin (2009) there are three types of case study research; exploratory, descriptive and explanatory. In this thesis, a descriptive single-case study is used; detailed observations and investigations were conducted in the Huachi region of

Gansu Provence. The Huachi County has been selected as the study unit as it represents one of the typical vulnerable poor rural communities exposed to the

adverse impacts of climate change in China.

The Loess Plateau, located in northwest China, is one of the most eroded regions in the world due to its soils, steep slopes, heavy rainstorms, droughts, and poor vegetation cover (Fu & Chen, 2000; Jiang et al., 2003; Wei et al., 2006a; Chen et al., 2007). The ecosystem of the Loess Plateau has been degraded as a consequence of long-term intensive human activities including land cultivation and deforestation. Farmers in the region thus face increasing poverty as a result of environmental degradation as well as poor agricultural productivity.

Future climate change may have great impacts on the fragile ecosystem of the

Loess Plateau. A significant decline in precipitation and a warmer surface temperature were detected over the past 50 years, and are expected to increase in the next 50-100 years (NDRC, 2007). Droughts have been more frequent on the plateau over the last 50 years as well (NDRC, 2007). Such unfavorable changes in rainfall and temperature patterns would be likely to greatly affect crop yields and hence farmers’ incomes.

Fanzhuang Village in Huachi County of Gansu Province, located in the western area of the Loess Plateau, was selected as the area for the case study in order to examine both farmer vulnerability and the response to the adverse impacts of climate change at the local community level. Its geographic, climate and socio- economic features are typical of rural communities that rely on dryland farming and that are vulnerable to changing climatic conditions. Farmers’ attitudes and behaviour are crucial to reducing vulnerability and enhancing resilience to the

consequences of climate change.

1.4.2 Data Collection and Analysis

Three main types of data were collected in the study: climate research, key informant interviews, and a review of relevant literature. This section explains the definitions, sources, and collection methods for the data, as well as the analysis processes for each category.

Climate data and analysis

It is important to understand that there is a significant difference between climate change and climate variability (Smit et al., 2000). Climate change refers to ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods’ (UNFCCC, 1992,

Article p.3). Climate variability, on the other hand, refers to ‘short-term fluctuations that occur from year to year’ (Burroughs, 2001, p.2), as well as

‘variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events’ (IPCC, 2001a, p.789).

A fundamental understanding is that changes in the global climate have local impacts and that it is not possible to treat variability separately from climate change (Mearns et al., 1997; Smit et al., 1999; 2000). Climate change at both a national level and the Loess Plateau region scale are briefly reviewed, mainly based on an analysis of relevant documents and national reports.

The climatic variability data collected from climate stations at the local county level within the time frame of the study can only account for a change over a few decades. The statistical changes in climate were collected and analysed at the national scale, for the Loess Plateau region, and for the local community of

Huachi.

a. National and regional climate data

Statistical climate data was obtained from national reports as well as from key published literature on current climate change trends and future climate predications at China’s national and regional levels. The main temporal and spatial changes of annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature that have occurred over the past century were reported in ‘China’s National Assessment

Report of Climate Change’ (Ding et al., 2006b). The data on glaciers and sea level changes were cited from China Glacier System Database (2007) and China’s Sea

Level Bulletin (2007), respectively. Hulme and Sheard (1999), and Xu et al. (2006) applied the climate scenarios of A1, A2, B1, and B2 by IPCC Special Report

Emissions Scenario (IPCC, 2001a) to estimate China’s future climate. Key results of these projections were cited. China’s National Climate Centre of the National

Meteorological Centre NCC/CMA and Institute of Atmosphere Physics of the

Chinese Academy of Sciences IAP/CAS also compare the projected results by the

IPCC SRES with another significant climate model.

b. Local climate data

The local climate data, including precipitation, temperature and extreme climate events, were collected from the climate station in Huachi County. Huachi Climate

Station is a local station that reports local climate data to upper level climate stations, including the municipal, the provincial and the state climate stations. In order to ensure the accuracy of statistical data for such a long period, the climate data collected from the Huachi Climate Station is also crosschecked with the published climate data on the Huachi Statistical Yearbook (1949-2008).

The collected local climate data is available from 1949; this includes annual, seasonal and monthly mean annual precipitation and temperature, extreme daily precipitation and temperature, and records of extreme events (drought and flood).

Descriptive statistics, such as frequencies, minimum, maximum, range, and mean precipitation and temperature were calculated and presented in tables. The linear- trend and fluctuation of the annual mean precipitation and temperature were plotted in one diagram to indicate the climate variations. In the data analysis, spring was defined as March-May, summer as June-August, autumn as

September-November and winter as December-February based on Domrös and

Peng, 1988.

Interview data and analysis

Interviews were designed to gather specific information (Berg, 1998) rather than structured queries (Yin, 2009). The three types of interviews applied in this thesis research included: semi-structured face-to-face individual interviews; focus-group discussions; and farmers’ questionnaires.

a. Semi-structured interview

The semi-structured interviews with local individual farmers, village and

township leaders were conducted following the prepared interview guide (see

Appendix B). All these interviews were tape-recorded separately. This ensures the accuracy of conversation content, as not everything can be written down during interviews. After the fieldwork, the audio files were turned into written transcripts and then translated into English. The qualitative data from the interview transcripts was then coded and analyzed based on certain variables. Some key descriptions from the interviewees were summarized and accurately translated.

These are represented in the case study chapter.

b. Focus-group discussion

Two focus group discussions were conducted during the fieldwork, including one with representatives from the local government agencies, including Huachi Water and Soil Conservation Bureau, Huachi Water Resource Bureau, Huachi

Agricultural Bureau, Huachi Forestry Bureau, and Huachi Climate Station. The representatives (totaling ten people) from these bureaus included senior officials and technicians.

Another focus group discussion was conducted with farmers selected from a local village (Fanzhuang Village, 5km to the town). Eleven farmers (six male and five female), each from a different household, participated in the group discussion.

Four (two male and two female) of them were selected randomly from the group of poor households in the village. Another four (two male and two female) were selected randomly from the group of households with medium economic status.

The last three (two male and one female) were also selected randomly from wealthy households in the same village. The key topics and outline of the two

focus group discussions are presented in Appendix C.

During the group discussions, a participatory tool named “SWOT” (Figure 1.2) was applied. SWOT (Strengthen-Weakness-Opportunity-Threat) analysis is a strategic method used to evaluate the strengths, weaknesses/limitations, opportunities, and threats involved in a particular project or event (Rowe, 1994).

The SWOT analysis was used to gather and categorize the qualitative data and information related to the above discussion topics. The 2x2 matrix is a visual diagram to organize the qualitative group data gathered during the focus group discussion. It is also used to represent the discussion information and data in the case study chapter.

Strength Weakness

GOOD NOW BAD NOW Maintain, build, Remedy, stop and leverage Internal Factors

Opportunity Threat

GOOD FUTURE BAD FUTURE Priorities, Counter optimize

Factors External Positive Negative

Figure 1.2 SWOT analysis with its four elements in a 2x2 matrix (Rowe, 1994; Hill & Westbrook, 1997; Jyothi et al., 2008)

c. Structured interview: questionnaire

A questionnaire for individual smallholder farmers was designed and used during the fieldwork in Huachi. In total, it consisted of 20 questions, including 14 close-

ended questions and six open-ended questions. The whole questionnaire took about 30-45 minutes for the interviewee to complete. A total of 35 farmers from different households in Fangzhuang Village (including 24 men and 11 women) were interviewed.

The main topics covered in the questionnaire included household information, income sources, dryland farming, and changes in weather patterns arising from climate change. Five basic types of close-ended questions, including multiple- choice, categorical, likert-scale, numerical and ordinal, are used to make the questionnaire more interesting and attractive.

For example, the following question is a typical close-ended question used to get quantitative data on farmers’ crop use.

Question 3: Which of the following crops did you plant in 2008?

(Multiple-choice)

Answers: a. Winter wheat; b. Maize; c. Photo; d. Soybean; e. Millet;

f. Sorghum; g. Vegetables; h. Other____”

The open-ended questions, in contrast, provided primarily qualitative data. For example, the open-ended question 19 of ‘What are the key changes in the weather compared to 20 years ago in your community?’ allowed interviewed farmers to respond in any way they chose. All of the questions are included in Appendix D.

Documentation data and analysis

Yin (2009) states that documented information is likely to be relevant to every case study topic. He mentioned that documentation sources are important to

supplement and to compensate for the limitation of other methods mentioned above. It may consist of a variety of documents, including: reports, government policy, literature, articles, newspapers, and personal documents, such as diaries, calendars and notes (Yin, 2009). Noor (2008) also noted that the evidence from documentation can assist to cross-validate information collected from interviews and discussions.

The key types of documentation that have been reviewed and analysed in this thesis research include: journal articles and literature, project reports, national and regional policies, guidelines and regulations from local government, and technical reports from local bureaus. The following themes were used to code the documents: ‘climate change’, ‘adaptation’, ‘policy-making process’, and ‘farmer responses’ were used for coding the documents.

1.5 Thesis Structure

This thesis is divided into four sections, including an introduction, a literature review, the case study, and a discussion and conclusion section. Figure 1.3 shows the interrelationship between each of the chapters.

Chapter 1 Introduction • Farmers’ vulnerability & adaptation to climate change (What and Why) • Research Methodology (How)

Chapter 2 Literature Review Chapter 3 Climate Change and its * Climate Change impacts in China * Vulnerability * Broad context of national and * Adaptation regional climate change and impacts

CASE STUDY

Chapter 4 China’s Chapter 5 Local Chapter 6 Farmers’ Loess Plateau community: Huachi vulnerability and adaptation

Chapter 7 Discussion * Sustainable natural resource management and climate change * Socio-economic factors affecting farmers’ vulnerability to climate change * Possibilities to enhance farmers’ resilience to climate change * Role of government in supporting farmers’ adaptation

Chapter 8 Conclusion and Recommendations * Climate change: implications for natural resource management * Adaptation strategies: reducing farmers’ vulnerability

Figure 1.3 Overview of thesis structure

Chapter One: Introduction

Chapter one opens by presenting the big picture of global climate change, vulnerability and adaptation. The two core research questions raised are; ‘Why are smallholder farmers vulnerable to climate change?’ and ‘How can farmers be made more resilient to climate change?’ The case study is then applied to exploring these questions in the specific context of China’s Loess Plateau.

Chapter Two: Literature review

The concepts, approaches and implications of the vulnerability of the socio- environmental system to climate change are detailed. The idea that the

‘vulnerability of a system can be attributed to an interaction between its physical, social and economic conditions’ is emphasised. Adaptation to climate is thus reviewed and appraised as the best way for people to respond in order to reduce their vulnerability, and/or take advantage of the changes.

Chapter Three: Climate change and its impacts in China

This chapter serves as the background for the broader context of climate change and impacts in China. Both the current and future trends of China’s climate are reviewed. The impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector are reviewed based on a review of relevant literature and secondary data in terms of water shortages, land use change and crop yields. Additionally, adaptation practices and strategies in China, such as agricultural adaptation, are reviewed and discussed.

Case study section: Chapter four, Chapter five and Chapter six

These three compact chapters together represent the complex system studied on

China’s Loess Plateau, from the regional level (the Plateau) to the local community level. The time line logically and systemically connects the past, current and future situations of the studied area.

Chapter Four: Natural resource management on China’s Loess Plateau

This chapter presents the whole picture of China’s Loess Plateau, which shows a consistent long-term unsustainable use of natural resources that has resulted in

severe soil erosion, reduced crop yields, and heightened vulnerability. The World

Bank ‘Loess Plateau Watershed Management Program (1994-2005)’ and the

Chinese Government ‘Grain for Green (1999-current)’ program are two major initiatives that have endeavored to rehabilitate the important water catchment.

After reviewing and analyzing the consequences of these two important programs, a central concern emerges; given the inevitability of the changing climate, a lack of appreciation of the impacts of these changes will increase the uncertainty of sustainable social and environmental development on the Plateau.

Chapter Five: Agriculture and Farmers’ livelihoods in Huachi County

This chapter presents the collected data from the field survey. Changes of dryland farming activities and livelihoods in the past few decades are reviewed. The consequences of the two major programs on agricultural practices and livelihoods are also evaluated.

Chapter Six: Local emerging vulnerabilities to climate change and adaptive responses

This chapter highlights the significance of the case study by pointing out the emerging vulnerabilities of the local ecosystem, farming activities and farmers’ livelihoods to climate change. It outlines the present and the anticipated physical and socio-economic impacts of climate change, and the emergence of adaptive measures to respond to these impacts at local community level.

Chapter Seven: Discussion

The chapter discusses the key implications of climate change on natural resource

management (land and water) and farming, socio-economic aspects of farmers’ livelihoods and the role of government in supporting adaptation for the farming community.

Chapter Eight: Conclusion and recommendations

The last chapter reviews the major issues discussed chapters and concludes by examining priorities for future research. Some potential future policy options are provided to reduce the vulnerability of the farming community to climate change, to improve their adaptive capacity, and to mainstream adaptation to policy processes.

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Global Climate Change Facts

2.1.1 The Climate system

The WMO (1992, p.76) defines climate as ‘the synthesis of weather conditions in a given area, characterized by long-term statistics (mean values, variances, probabilities of extreme values, etc.) for the meteorological elements in that area’.

As defined by WMO, climate usually refers to the average weather in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of several decades

(typically three decades). These quantities are most often surface variables, such as temperature, precipitation and wind, but in a wider sense the ‘climate’ is a description of the state of the climate system (IPCC, 1995). The observational record of variations of the mean state of the climate or of its variability, are referred to as ‘climate change’ (IPCC, 2001a). Also defined by Wikipedia, climate change is a change that can be caused by internal changes within the climate system, or the interaction among its components, or be a result of changes in external forces (including natural causes or human or anthropogenic activities).

The climate system is highly complex. It consists of five major components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the land surface, and the biosphere

(see Figure 2.1). Based on Figure 2.1, there are many mutual physical, chemical and biological processes taking place in and among these components, and all these components are all linked by fluxes of mass, heat and momentum. Therefore, any changes (whether natural or anthropogenic) in the components of the climate system and their interactions, may result in climate variations (IPCC, 2001a).

Figure 2.1 Schematic view of the components of the global climate system, their processes and interactions (Source: IPCC, 2001a, p.88)

For example, global warming is the increase of the average temperature of both the atmosphere and the ocean since the late 19th century and its projected continuation (WMO, 1992). It is caused by the increase of greenhouse gas emissions without providing offsets by increasing carbon storage on earth.

2.1.2 The facts and trends of climate change

Climate change is clearly one of the common challenges facing all countries and regions. In his opening ceremony speech at the Copenhagen Climate Change

Summit on 7 December 2009, IPCC Chairman Mr. Rajendra Pachuri stated that:

‘Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from

observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures,

widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global sea level… which will

increase even worse if we take no action to stabilize the concentration of the

greenhouse gases in the atmosphere… We must halt this unacceptable

trend.’

Earth's climate is changing due to the observed increases in greenhouse gas emissions by human activities. The snow or ice systems, the hydrological systems, the terrestrial biological systems and the marine and freshwater biological systems are under great threats and pressures from changes in climate (Figure 2.2). As

Figure 2.2 shows, the amplified natural greenhouse gases effect leads to more heat from the sun being trapped in the atmosphere, particularly through the rise in carbon-monoxide emissions. This extra heat has been found to be the primary cause of observed changes in the climate system over the twentieth century (IPCC,

2001a). Human activities, based on the Figure 2.2, mainly the burning of fossil fuels in agriculture, transport, industry and heating, and land use changes due to urbanization and deforestation, have resulted in enhanced greenhouse gas emissions. These effects on climate change processes, in turn, amplified the threats (e.g. disasters) on the social-environmental systems.

Figure 2.2 Climate Change: processes, characteristics and threats (Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2005)

For example, Figure 2.3 supports the IPCC’s (2007b) statement that the warming of the climate system is unambiguous and temperature increase is very likely due to the observed anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. IPCC Working

Group III (2007d) reports that the global concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases has grown since pre-industrial times, increasing 70 per cent between 1970 and 2004.

Figure 2.3 Global annual average temperatures and CO2 concentration continue to climb from 1880-2007 (Source: Karl et al., 2009, p.17) Note: light colored bars indicate temperature above the 1901–2000 average; the dark bars are below average temperatures for the same period. The line shows the rising CO2 concentration. While there is a clear long-term global warming trend, each individual year does not show a temperature increase relative to the previous year, and some years show greater changes than others.

It is believed that greenhouse gases contribute directly and indirectly to each of the following observed climate changes and impacts: shifts in average global air and ocean temperatures; continuing melting of ice and snow and rises in sea level rises; changes in rainfall patterns; and increases in extreme weather events throughout the world (IPCC Working Group I, 2007b).

Current evidence of climate change includes global and regional air and ocean temperature observations (Figure 2.4). It is seend from the Figure 2.4 that the average temperature of the earth’s surface has risen by 0.74 °C since the late

1800s. Current average surface temperatures are already 0.8°C above preindustrial levels.

Figure 2.4 Global annual-mean surface air temperature changes based on the period 1951-1980 (Source: Goddard Institute for Space Studies, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ )

Note: The line plot of global annual-mean surface air temperature change is generated from meteorological station networks using the base period 1951-1980. Uncertainty is expressed as 95 per cent confidence limits and accounts only for incomplete spatial sampling of data. It is shown by the green bars for both the annual and five-year means.

The linear warming trend over the 50 years from 1956 to 2005 is nearly twice that of the 100-year period from 1906 to 2005 (IPCC WGI, 2007b). Nine of the ten warmest years on record have occurred during the past decade. The average earth temperature is expected to rise by another 1.8°C to 4°C by the year 2100. If achieved, this predicated increase would be larger than any century-long trend on

Earth in the last 10,000 years. A number of likely climate scenarios are applied to project global average surface warming for the next century (Table 2.1).

Table 2.1 Projected global average surface warming at the end of 21st century (Source: adapted from IPCC 2007b, Table SPM3)

Temperature change b Scenario a (Change in °C in 2090-2099 compared to 1980-1999) Best estimate Likely range A1T (600 ppm c) + 2.4 1.4 ~ 3.8 A1B (800 ppm) + 2.8 1.7 ~ 4.4 A2 (1250 ppm) + 3.4 2.0 ~ 5.4 A1F1 (1550 ppm) + 4.0 2.4 ~ 6.4

Note: a. The scenarios listed above reflect outcomes in the absence of any mitigation over next century. b. To express the temperature changes relative to pre-industrial times add 0.5°C.

c. CO2 concentration at parts per million by volume.

However, these changes in temperature are not projected to distribute evenly around the Earth. It is claimed that higher latitudes and continental regions should expect temperature increases significantly greater than the global average (Stern,

2007). As might be anticipated, the largest temperature increases are predicted to be in the high latitudes, particularly around the poles (Stern, 2007). For instance, a global average warming of around 4°C would see the oceans and coasts warming by 3°C, the mid-latitudes warming by more than 5°C, and the poles by around

8°C (Stern, 2007).

The IPCC fourth assessment report (2007b) reveals that the increased atmospheric moisture content associated with the global warming might be expected to result in increased global mean precipitation to some extent. However, the record and statistical data shows a large variability between decades and there’s also a non- significant decrease in the annual mean precipitation since 1950 (IPCC, 2007b).

The trend in the annual mean precipitation for three latitude bands for the last 100 years show distinctly different patterns (Figure 2.5).

Figure 2.5 Annual and five-year running mean precipitation changes for three latitude bands from 1900 to 2000 (Source: Goddard Institute for Space Studies, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/precip_cru/graphs/)

Note: The graph indicates the annual and five-year running mean precipitation changes for the three bands that cover 30 per cent (a), 40 per cent (b), and 30 per cent (c) of the global area.

Observations show that precipitation has increased significantly in eastern parts of

North and South America, northern Europe, and northern and central Asia (Figure

2.5). However, precipitation declined in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern

Africa, and parts of south Asia (WMO, 2009). Allen and Ingram (2002) predict a larger change in extreme precipitation than in the mean precipitation. Results from

the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) Coupled Models Intercomparison

Program (CMIP), note a projected increase in the amplitude range of summer drying in the mid-latitudes and northern–subtropics, linked to an increased risk of drought in a warmer climate.

It is claimed that dryness will result, along with an increased chance of intense precipitation and flooding (IPCC, 2007b). Many studies predict that intense and heavy rainfall events are intermixed with more relative dry days and periods, particularly in the subtropics (Allen & Ingram, 2002; Beniston, 2004; Christensen

& Christensen, 2004). It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent (IPCC, 2007b).

On the other hand, global average sea level has risen by 17 cm during the twentieth century (IPCC, 2007b). Warmer temperatures are melting glaciers and ice caps and causing ocean volume expansion, both of which contribute to a rise in sea levels. An additional increase of 18 to 59 cm is expected by the year 2100

(IPCC, 2007b). Scientists warn that higher rises in sea levels will flood coastlines in countries including Bangladesh (Singh, 2001; Sarwar & Khan, 2007), and cause the disappearance of some nations including the island state of the Maldives

(Nicholls & Tol, 2006).

2.1.3 Climatic variability and uncertainty

Climate itself is inherently variable with variations across many spatial and temporal scales (Parry & Carter, 1985; Smithers & Smit, 1997). Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state of the climate beyond that of

individual weather events (IPCC, 2001a). The degree of climate variability can be described by the differences between long-term statistics of meteorological elements calculated for different periods. Until the 1990s, climatic variation over years, decades, centuries and millennia was poorly understood and largely unpredictable (Hare, 1991; Hulm et al., 1999; Karl et al., 1995). Because of the notion of discontinuities and the nature of ecological systems (Holling, 1986),

‘variability in ecological systems is in some ways predictable, but in other ways is always surprising’ (Brown et al., 2012, p.140).

Climatic variability and changes are sources of uncertainty. Climate is uncertain, and ‘human societies have always and where had to develop coping strategies in the face of unwelcome variations in climate or weather extremes’ (Adger et al.,

2003, p.181). Nowadays, scientific understandings of the Earth’s climate and computer modeling have improved, with more and better projections now being made (IPCC, 2007b). However, notwithstanding these improved projections, a level of uncertainty still exists around the potential variations of these new conditions (Hare, 1985; Katz & Brown, 1992).

Adger et al. (2003, p.184) argue that ‘a high level of uncertainty remains and is associated with not knowing accurately how the climate system reacts to unprecedented emissions of GHG, how clouds, forests, grasslands and particularly the world’s oceans react to climate perturbations, and how these feed back to the system’. Uncertainty surrounding these responses will only start to decrease with actual observations of what happens in the future to the Earth’s climate (Watson,

2008). Hence an active and adaptive approach in response to climate change is

inevitable to produce polices that can address the uncertain future ahead (Peterson et al, 1997; Lee, 1993).

2.1.4 Impacts on human-environmental systems

The global impacts of climate change can already be tracked in many physical, biological, or socio-economic systems (Table 2.2). Longer-term changes in climate will be felt via differences in frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, and from impacts on agriculture and natural resources

(Michaelowa, 2001). For instance, unstable water supply and uneven distributions, along with trends of droughts and desertification in some regions, means that food supplies will be under great uncertainty (Easterling et al., 2007).

Many scholars (Peterson et al., 1997; Walker & Steffen, 1997) note that climate change will disrupt species and ecological services, in which the uncertain impcats will benefit some, but will probably harm many others. Based on the statistical data from FAO (2008), an estimated 850 million people in the world today suffer from hunger. Of those, about 820 million (more than 95 per cent) live in developing countries which are expected to be most affected by climate change.

The IPCC Technical Report (2007b) projected that by 2020, between 75 and 250 million people in Africa will be exposed to water stress due to climate change, and that agricultural yields in some countries could be reduced by 50 per cent.

Table 2.2 Negative and positive impacts of climate change on multi-human systems (based on Michaelowa, 2001) System Negative Impacts Positive Impacts Dimensions

Water • Decreased availability in • Increased availability in resources many water-scarce regions, some water-scarce especially sub-tropics and regions, e.g. parts of small inland states south-east Asia Agriculture • Reduced crop yields in most • Increased crops yields in and forestry tropical and subtropical some mid-latitude regions, and in mid latitudes regions for low to from strong warming moderate warming Fisheries • Decreases in commercial • Increases in commercial (mainly cold water) fish (mainly warm water) stocks in some areas fish stocks in some areas. Human • Widespread increased risk of • Reduced energy settlement, flooding, landslides and demands for space energy avalanches heating in mid and high • Permafrost melting destroys latitudes. physical infrastructure. • Increased hydropower • Decreases hydropower waterway transport potential and waterway capacity potential in transport capacity in areas areas with higher water with lower water availability availability and decreased glaciers areas Financial • Increases of payments due to services damages Human • Increased number of people • Reduced mortality in health exposed to vector and water mid and high latitudes in borne diseases winter

The above negative impacts also demonstrate that human development has now progressed to such an extent that it has increased vulnerability to climate change.

It is also estimated by IFAD (2008) that climate change is expected to put 49 million extra people at risk of hunger by 2020, and 132 million by 2050. This takes global climate change to an even broader issue in terms of societies’ response to the challenges and consequences of environmental change and climatic variability.

2.2 Vulnerability to Climate Change

2.2.1 The concepts

A wide range of disciplines use the term ‘vulnerability’, from economics and anthropology, to psychology and engineering, as well human geography and ecology. Adger (2006) outlines and states that each of these disciplines, as well as antecedent and successor approaches to vulnerability research, has made contributions in theorizing vulnerability within the contexts of environmental change and social-ecological systems (details in Table 2.3). He further argues that

‘it is only in the area of human-environmental relationships that vulnerability has common, though contested, meaning’ (Adger, 2006, p.269).

However, there are still considerable differing interpretations and understandings around the concepts of vulnerability. A growing body of literatures addresses the varying definitions and approaches to these relevant concepts of vulnerability, hazards, adaptive capacity and adaptation (Adger, 1999; Adger, 2006; Brooks et al., 2004; Füssel, 2005, 2007; Kelly & Adger, 2000; O’Brien et al., 2007).

Table 2.3 Reviews of antecedent and successor approaches of vulnerability research (Developed from Adger, 2006) Vulnerability Objectives Sources approach Antecedents

Vulnerability to Developed to explain vulnerability to Sen (1981); Watts and famine and food famine in the absence of shortages of food Bohle (1993). insecurity or production failures. Described vulnerability as a failure of entitlements and shortage of capacities. Vulnerability to Identification and prediction of vulnerable Burton et al. risk-hazards groups, critical regions through assessment (1978,1993); Smit of likelihood and consequence of hazard. (1996); Anderson and Application in climate change impacts. Woodrow (1998); Parry and Carter (1994) Human ecology Structural analysis of underlying causes of Hewitt (1983);O’Keefe vulnerability to natural hazards et al. (1976)

Successors

Vulnerability to Explaining present social, physical or Smit and Pilifosova climate change ecological system vulnerability to (2001); Smith et al. and variability (primarily) future risks, using a wide range (2001); Ford and Smit of methods and research traditions. (2004); O’Brien et al. (2004).

Sustainable Explaining why populations become or stay Morduch (1994); Ellis livelihoods and poor, based on analysis of economic factors (2000); Ligon and vulnerability to and social relations. Schechter (2003). poverty

Vulnerability to Explaining the vulnerability of coupled Turner et al. (2003a,b); social- human-environment systems. Luers et al. (2003); ecological Luers (2005); O’Brien systems et al. (2004)

The IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) describes vulnerability as:

The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with,

adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and

extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and

rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and

its adaptive capacity… (IPCC, 2001b, p.995)

This often-cited IPCC definition formulates the key parameters of vulnerability as exposure by the human-environmental system, the response and sensitivity of the system, and its adaptability (see Figure 2.6). Therefore, vulnerability to climate change within this IPCC vulnerability context is defined as a characteristic of a system and as a function of its exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity (Adger,

2006).

Figure 2.6 The relationships between the concept of vulnerability and its defining concepts (based on Hinkel, 2008, p.17) Note: This diagram as developed by Hinkel (2008) shows the relationships between the concept of vulnerability and its relevant defining conceptual components, and is based on the Working Group II glossary of the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR). The nodes represent the key three conceptual components and other elements relating to the vulnerability definition. Arrows point from the defined concepts to defining ones.

Füssel (2007) further describes climate-related vulnerability based on the characteristics of the vulnerable system, the type and number of stressors and their root causes, their effect on the system and the time horizon of vulnerability.

Theories applied in this empirical thesis study, however, focus on reviewing and exploring the main interpretations and approaches of vulnerability to the context of ‘climate change’.

To understand the characteristics of vulnerability to climate change, Adger (1999) outlined the two types of vulnerability with individual and collective perspectives

(Table 2.4). The causes in relation to climate extremes and indicators of vulnerability focus on internal social-economic vulnerability to any climate hazards.

Table 2.4 Collective & individual vulnerability to climate change (Adger, 1999, p.252) Type of Causes in relation to climate extremes Indicators of vulnerability vulnerability Individual Relative and absolute poverty; Poverty indicators; proportion vulnerability entitlement failure; resource of income dependent on risky dependency resources; dependency and stability Collective Absolute levels of infrastructure GDP per capita; relative vulnerability development; institutional and inequality; qualitative political factors; insurance; formal indicators of institutional and informal social security arrangements

These categories and interpretation of vulnerability to climate change will be applied and addressed in analyzing the ‘vulnerability of farming activities and farmers’ livelihood to the climate change’, referring to individual small farmers’ vulnerability as well as collective community and/or region vulnerability in later chapters. More detailed reviews of the conceptualization of vulnerability within

climate change research are presented in Table 2.5. The reviews highlight two different vulnerability analysis concepts, ‘end point’ and ‘starting point’, that have been distinguished by many scholars (Kelly & Adger, 2000; Burton et al., 2002;

O’Brien et al., 2004; Smit et al., 1999).

The more traditional ‘end point’ vulnerability, emphasises vulnerability results along with projections of future emission trends (Kelly & Adger, 2002). It represents the net impacts of the climate change problem, taking into account the feasible adaptive options (Füssel, 2005). This is more applicable to the development of mitigation policy and to international assistance aimed at limiting the adverse impacts of climate change.

In contrast, ‘starting-point’ vulnerability considers the present inability to cope with internal and external stressors and changes, in this case changing climate conditions (O’Brien et al., 2004). Here, vulnerability is considered a characteristic of social and ecological systems susceptible to climate change, and variability is determined by socio-economic factors; and its analysis commences with the present vulnerability to climatic stimuli (O’Brien et al., 2004). Kelly and Adger

(2000) and Burton et al. (2002) declare that vulnerability, according to the starting-point interpretation, assumes that addressing present-day vulnerability will reduce vulnerability under future climate conditions.

Table 2.5 Two interpretations of vulnerability within climate change research (based on Füssel, 2005, 2007)

End-point interpretation Starting-point interpretation Policy context Mitigation policy, compensation Adaptation policy policy Main problem Climate change Social vulnerability

Main solutions to Climate change mitigation, Social adaptation, sustainable problems technical adaptation, development compensation

Policy questions What are the benefits of climate How can vulnerability of change mitigation? societies to climatic hazards be reduced? Research questions What are the expected net Why are some groups more impacts of climate change in affected by climatic hazards different regions? than others?

Purpose Descriptive Explanatory

Meaning of Expected net damage for a given Susceptibility to climate “vulnerability” level of global climate change. change and variability as determined by socio-economic factors. Vulnerability and Adaptive capacity determines Vulnerability determines adaptive capacity vulnerability adaptive capacity

Main discipline Natural sciences Social sciences

The starting-point understanding of vulnerability provides a conceptual foundation for research design and for investigating, interpreting and understanding the vulnerability to the climate change scenario within the local vulnerable agricultural community of the case study. The thesis proposes to identify policies or measures that reduce vulnerability, increase adaptive capacity, or identify adaptation options and constraints, by understanding the distribution and causes of vulnerability (Adger, 1999; O’Brien et al., 2004; Burton et al.,

2002). Therefore, the key research questions developed from the starting-point

vulnerability theory include, ‘Who is vulnerable to climate change and why?’ and

‘How can vulnerability be reduced?’

2.2.2 Conventional frameworks for assessing vulnerability

Associated with the diverse definition of the term ‘vulnerability’, various analytical and assessment approaches have been employed when investigating vulnerability within human-environment (socio-ecological) systems, especially more recently and with respect to climate change (Timmerman, 1981; Cutter,

1996; Adger & Kelly, 1999; Brooks, 2003; Downing et al., 2003; Turner et al.,

2003; Adger, 2006; Füssel & Klein, 2006; Polsky et al., 2007).

To trace the lineages of current vulnerability research, the three antecedent approaches to vulnerability are each briefly reviewed: the risk-hazard framework; the political economy/political ecology framework; and the ecological resilience framework.

Risk-hazard framework

The risk-hazard framework is the defining approach used in risk and disaster management (Füssel and Klein, 2006). It interprets vulnerability as the dose- response relationship between hazard to a system and its adverse effects

(Downing et al., 2003). Eakin and Luers (2006, p369) use the biophysical threat as a starting point, and describe the risk/hazard approaches to: ‘(a) to what we are vulnerable; (b) the consequences might be expected, and (c) where and when those impacts may occur’.

In practice, however, the efforts to quantify damage have often been used as rough proxies for vulnerability (Liverman, 2001; Kelly & Adger, 2000; Brooks,

2003), by using a relatively linear analysis that characterizes a stressor and then moves to determine impacts and potential adjustments (Eakin and Luers, 2006, p.369).

Political economy/political ecology framework

The political economy/political ecology framework is also known as the social constructivist framework. Rooted primarily in political economics that pervades poverty and development literature, the political-economy perspectives on vulnerability ‘emphasize the sociopolitical, cultural, and economic factors that together explain differential exposure to hazards, differential impacts, and most importantly, differential capacities to recuperate from past impacts and/or to cope and adapt to future threats’ (Eakin & Luers, 2006, p.370). Political-ecology research, on the other hand, ‘explores vulnerability with respect to broad processes of institutional and environmental change’ (Eakin & Luers, 2006, p.371).

From both perspectives, it denotes the social and economic response capacity of individuals and groups to a variety of stressors, with its main concerns being; who is most vulnerable and why? (Füssel, 2005). However, Eakin and Luers (2006) argue that the absence of a clearly defined vulnerability outcome within this framework has produced only generic descriptions of inequities in resource distribution and relationships that relate to the differential susceptibility to harm.

Ecological resilience framework

The ecological resilience framework is a relatively new concept being applied within vulnerability research. Originally Holling (1973) defined ecological resilience as the ‘ability to absorb change and disturbance and still maintain the same relationships’ (p.14). In early 1981, Timmerman firstly brought resilience theory to the social sciences. He pointed out that resilience theory could be extended to argue that the vulnerability of a society to a hazard is a consequence of scientific, technological and social rigidity.

Based on this, the framework for vulnerability assessment today focuses on

‘understanding processes of change, on identifying thresholds, and on the principle factors that allow natural systems to absorb disturbance’ (Eakin & Luers,

2006, p.372). Many resilience researchers also recommend adopting ‘adaptive co- management’ strategies for human-environmental systems to enhance their resilience to surprise and shocks (Folke at al., 2002). The key argument for the resilience framework is that: social resilience is an essential attribute of communities and regions, not of individuals or households; this then challenges its application at the individual/household scale (Adger, 2000).

2.2.3 The conceptual model of vulnerability

Climate change vulnerability assessments generally seek to reduce and moderate risks and otherwise inform policy (Füssel & Klein, 2006). The process is applied in a variety of contexts and involves engagement with a diverse group of stakeholders with varying concerns. The IPCC TAR (WGII, 2001b) reports reveal that vulnerability assessment theories currently available are moving towards

improved interdisciplinary analyses of the potential consequences of climate change; integrating both impact and adaptation assessments; and providing an integrated appraisal of climate change with other stresses and concerns.

The conceptual model of vulnerability to climate change of Ford and Smit (2004), and Smit and Wandel (2006), builds on a range of literature and conceptualizes vulnerability as a function of exposure-sensitivity to climate-related risks and the adaptive capacity to deal with those risks (IPCC, 2001b; Burton et al., 2002;

Adger, 2006; Eakin & Luers, 2006). It is broadly consistent with other vulnerability approaches, including Turner et al. (2003), Eriksen et al. (2005),

Adger (2006), Belliveau et al. (2006), and Eakin and Luers (2006).

Smit and Pilifosova (2003, p.13) initially express the model of vulnerability formally as:

Vist = ƒ (Eist, Aist)

Where Vist = vulnerability of community i to stimulus s in time t; Eist =

exposure of i to s in t; and Aist = adaptive capacity of i to deal with s in time

It is explained that the functional relationship between the two elements is not specified as it will vary by location, context, sector, and time. However, it is understood that vulnerability is a positive function of a community’s exposure, and a negative or inverse function of a community’s adaptive capacity (Smit &

Pilifosova, 2003).

Ford et al. (2006) illustrate these concepts systematically in the conceptual model of vulnerability (Figure 2.7), where the system of interest is the ‘community’.

Figure 2.7 Conceptual model of vulnerability (Ford et al., 2006, p.147)

This conceptual model comprises the components of vulnerability identified and linked to factors beyond the system of interest and operating at various scales. In this conceptualization, ‘vulnerability at a local level is perceived as being conditioned by social, economic, cultural, political and climatic conditions and processes, operating at multiple scales over time and space, which affect community exposure and adaptive capacity’ (Ford et al., 2008, p.46).

Exposure-sensitivity, one central element in the model, refers to the susceptibility of people and communities to climatic conditions that represent risks. It reflects both the characteristics of climatic conditions and nature of the system (i.e.

community) itself. Climatic characteristics include ‘magnitude, frequency, spatial dispersion, duration, speed of onset, timing, and temporal spacing of climatic risks, relating to temperature, precipitation, wind, etc.’ (Ford & Smit, 2004, p.393).

Climatic stimuli of a system are also affected both by global climate change and climatic variability on a local system (Füssel & Klein, 2006). The nature or the characteristic of the community ‘concerns its location and structure relative to the climatic risks, and is strongly linked to livelihood conditions and strategies and will vary among groups in the community’ (Ford et al., 2006).

Exposure-sensitivity is dynamic, changing as the community itself and climatic conditions change. It is also affected by the social, economic, political as well as biophysical conditions and processes, which operate at broader scales beyond the system. Both these human and biophysical conditions are also named ‘root causes’ (Blaikie et al., 1994), ‘external drivers’ (Folke et al., 2003), or ‘influences acting on place’ (McCarthy & Martello, 2005).

Adaptive capacity, in general terms, refers to the potential or ability of a system, region, or community to address, plan for, or adapt to exposure-sensitivity, the effects or impacts of climate change (Smit & Pilofosova, 2001; 2003). It reflects the adjustment ability of a system to ‘moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with consequences’ (IPCC, 2001b, p.6). It is stated that ‘most communities can cope with normal climatic conditions and a range of deviations around norms’ (Ford & Smit, 2004, p.393). It is the ‘ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate variability and change, and includes adjustments in both behavior and in resources and technologies’

(IPCC, 2007c, p.727). Through the adapting process, people have learned to modify their behavior as well as their environment to manage and also take advantage of their local climatic changes (Jones & Boer, 2003).

It is thus concluded that generic concepts of the characteristics of systems

(communities or regions) will ‘influence their propensity or ability to adapt (as part of impact and vulneralbity assessment) and/or their priority for adaptation measures’ (IPCC, 2007c, p.893). These characteristics including sensitivity, vulnerability, susceptibility, coping range, critical levels, adaptive capacity, stability, robustness, resilience, and flexibility, have been used to differentiate systems according to their likelihood, need, or ability for adaptation (Smithers &

Smit, 1997; Smit et al., 1999; Adger & Kelly, 1999; Smit & Wandel, 2006).

Together, they represent the adaptive capacity of a system.

Furthermore, studies show that how well a system could adjust to realized or even anticipated environmental changes provide an indication of the system’s adaptive capacity (Adger, 2003; Easterling et al., 2004; Turton, 1999; Walker et al., 2002).

Easterling et al. (2004, p.4) argued that ‘availability and accessibility to adjustment opportunities serve as the foundation for understanding and defining a system’s adaptive capacity’. While the determinants of adaptive capacity, should include the forces that reshape the ability of the system to cope and adapt (Adger,

2003; Turton, 1999; Walker et al., 2002).

Yohe and Tol (2002, p.26) conclude that the determinants of adaptive capacity of a system include ‘the range of available technological options for adaptation; the

availability of resources and their distribution across the population; the structure of critical institutions, the derivative allocation of decision-making; human capital including education and personal security; social capital including the definition of property rights; the system’s access to risk spreading processes; the ability of decision-makers to manage information; and the public’s perceived attribution of the source of stress’.

It is necessary to clarify that the determinants of adaptive capacity are not independent of each other. Individual determinants cannot be isolated, as the adaptive capacity is generated by the interaction of determinants that are dependent on each other but vary in time and space (Smit & Wandel, 2006).

Furthermore, the scales of adaptive capacity that are based on the various determinants are not independent or separate. For instance, the capacity of a small household to cope with a drought depends to some degree on the enabling environment of the local community, which in turn may be reflective of the wider adaptive capacity to provide necessary resources and policies to that region (Smit

& Pilifosova, 2003; Yohe & Tol, 2002).

In conclusion, adaptive capacity relates to communities’ resilience, resistance, flexibility and robustness (Smithers & Smit, 1997). The ability of community to adapt or cope reflects ‘resource use options’ and ‘risk management strategies’ to response to exposure effects (Jones, 2001; Smit & Pilifosova, 2003). It is thus recognized that the adaptive capacity of a system is likely to be greater when: i) the nation has a stable and prosperous economy (Goklany, 1995; Burton, 1996); ii) there is a high degree of access to technology at various levels (Burton, 1996); iii)

the roles and responsibilities for implementation of adaptation strategies are well described by the Central Government and are clearly understood at national, regional and local levels (Burton, 1996); and iv) systems are in place for the dissemination of climate change and adaptation information nationally and regionally (Gupta and Hisschemoller, 1997).

Therefore, both the ability of ‘resource use’ and ’risk management’ are influenced by characteristics including economic and social capital, infrastructure conditions, institutions capacity, experience and lessons learnt from previous risk responses, a series of technologies available for adaptation, and equity of access to resources within the community, as well as other factors affecting decision-making at the local community level (Adger & Kelly, 1999; Smit & Pilifosova, 2001; Smith et al., 2003). Furthermore, these determinants may increase or limit a community’s ability to deal with climate-related risks and challenges (Barnett, 2001; Adger,

2003; Smith et al., 2003; Robards & Alessa, 2004).

Exposure-sensitivity and adaptive capacity are not mutually exclusive (refer back to Figure 2.6). For instance, ‘exposure to repeated climate-related conditions, can develop experience on how to manage the climatic conditions, and enable

“response with learning”, thus increasing the adaptive capacity of the system’

(Ford et al., 2008, p.46). It is stated, ‘certain adaptive strategies can also change the nature of the community (location, structure, organization), such that the community is more or less exposed, or exposed in a different way’ (Ford et al.,

2006, p.4).

2.2.4 Analytical framework for vulnerability approach

Figure 2.8 shows the analytical framework for empirical application of the conceptual vulnerability model used to assess community at a local level using a two-step structure.

Figure 2.8 Analytical framework for vulnerability assessment (After Ford & Smit, 2004; Smit & Wandel, 2006)

The first stage of the analysis is to assess current vulnerability by documenting current exposures-sensitivity, and current adaptive capacity (Ford & Smit, 2004).

Ford and Smit (2004, p.395) explain that ‘the assessment of current vulnerability requires analyzing and documenting local communities’ experiences with climatic risks (current exposure), and the adaptive options and resource management strategies employed to address these risks (current adaptive capacity)’.

It normally starts with the community itself, ‘incorporating the knowledge and

observations of local residents to assess current vulnerability’ (Ford et al., 2006, p.148). The aim of the vulnerability analysis is to ‘identify and document the conditions and risks (current and past exposures and sensitivities) that people have to deal with, and how they deal with these, including the factors and processes that constrain their choices (current and past adaptive capacity)’ (Smit and

Wandel, 2006, p.289).

The second stage assesses future vulnerability in the local community by

‘estimating directional changes or trends in exposure-sensitivity and assessing future adaptive capacity on the basis of past behaviour and identification of future adaptation options, constraints, and opportunities’ (Ford et al., 2006, p.148).

Future vulnerability assessment involves application of climate science to estimate the likelihood of changes in climate, and whether local community will have the potential capacity and/or adaptive strategies to deal with these risks. The second stage also aims to identify future adaptation options, constraints, and opportunities (Ford et al., 2006). This thesis applies the framework to the community of Huachi County, in the Loess Plateau in Chapter 6.

Current vulnerability

The analysis of community vulnerability normally starts with the assessment of current vulnerability under the two-step framework. Ford and Smit (2004, p.395) state that ‘current vulnerability assessment requires analyzing and documenting communities’ experiences with climatic risks (current exposure) and the adaptive options and resource management strategies employed to address these risks

(current adaptive capacity)’. The observations of local communities, their

experience and responses, as well as their knowledge about the environment and its use, are significant in assessing current vulnerability (Ford et al., 2006).

Furthermore, the insights from ‘local and regional decision-makers, resource managers, scientists, published and unpublished literature, and other available sources of information about current vulnerability’ are required for the assessment

(Smit & Wandel, 2006, p.289).

Ford and Smit (2004) also emphasize the need to set a timeframe to establish how far back in time the analysis should go when analyzing risks and community response. They explain that it may depend on both the extent to which past climate conditions that determined adaptability are relevant today, and on the availability of information or data (Ford and Smit, 2004). Lim et al. (2004) suggest limiting historical analysis of vulnerability to one or two decades. Ford and Smit (2004, p.396) argue, in timeline setting, ‘to weigh the value of analyzing how previous generations coped with hazards against the recent social, economic, political and technological changes, which also determine adaptive capacity’.

Based on the above principles, as well as data and information available in Huachi

County, the timeframe of current vulnerability assessment in the case study is between the 1970s and 2000s.

Future vulnerability

The future vulnerability assessment in the framework is constructed by ‘analyzing how climate change will alter the nature of the climate-related risks and whether the communities’ coping strategies will have the capacity to deal with these risks’

(Ford & Smit, 2004, p.396).

Future exposure, including likelihood of changes in climatic attributes, is estimated based on climate modeling and expectation identified by the community

(Ford & Smit, 2004). Future exposure ‘includes estimating the future state of the socio-economic conditions, given that exposure is a property of the system relative to risk’ (Ford & Smit, 2004, p.396). Based on above definitions and explanations, certain questions could be asked in assessing future exposure on the

Loess Plateau, including whether the extreme events or climatic variability will continue to increase or decrease; which areas of the Plateau will experience most erosion; and whether the unexpected droughts that have caused problems to the local community will become even stronger and less predictable.

Future adaptive capacity, in particular, concerns ‘the degree to which the community can deal with the estimated future exposures’, and ‘…it includes examining past responses to climate variability and extremes, and having community identify its future adaptation options and constraints’ (Ford & Smit,

2004, p.396). Based on this information, the researchers can ‘characterize a community’s ability to cope with future changes and collaborate to identify adaptive strategies that will reduce risk’ (Ford & Smit, 2004, p.396).

Community and stakeholder engagement throughout

Smit and Wandel (2006) proclaim that through the analytical framework for vulnerability assessment, both the exposure and sensitivities that are pertinent to the community, and the a priori determinants of adaptive capacity in the community, are identified from the community itself. The overall analysis seeks to identify the broader conditions and structures within which the community

functions. Thus, it requires active involvement of community stakeholders (Smit

& Wandel, 2006).

Stakeholders are people ‘who have an interest (stake) and the potential to influence the actions, aims of an organization, project or policy direction’ (Brugha and Varvasovskyz, 2000, p.239). It is futher stated that ‘increasing popularity of stakeholder analysis reflected the recognition of how stakeholders (individuals, groups and organizations) influence the decision-making process’ (Brugha and

Varvasovskyz, 2000, p.239). Stakeholder analysis aims to evaluate and understand stakeholders from the perspective of outsiders, or to discover their relevance to a project or policy. It is providing a methodology for ‘better understanding problems and interactions through comparative analysis of the different perspectives, sets of interests, and balance of stakeholders at various levels’ (Grimble and Wellard, 1997, p.177). Questions are asked to analyze their position, interest, influence, interrelation, network and other characteristics

(Freeman, 1984; Blair et al., 1990). Stakeholder analysis becomes an efficient approach for ‘understanding a system and changes in it by identifying key actors or stakeholders and assessing their respective interests in that system’ (Grimble and Wellard, 1997, p.173).

The two-step analytical framework of vulnerability assessment (refer back to

Figure 2.3) is also known as a ‘participatory vulnerability assessment approach’ with community and stakeholder engagement throughout, in work such as Lim et al. (2004), Sutherland et al. (2005), and Smit and Wandel (2006). The conditions,

‘that interact to shape exposures, sensitivities, adaptive capacities, and hence

create needs and opportunities for adaptation, are community specific’ (Smit &

Wandel, 2006, p.288). The appropriate in-community methods, including tools such as semi-structured interviews, participant observations, and focus groups are employed to gain such knowledge of the community in this thesis research program.

2.3 Adaptation to Climate Change

Adaptation to climate is the process through which people reduce the adverse effects of climate on their health and well-being, and also take advantage of the opportunities that their climatic environment provides (Burton, 1992, quoted in

Smit et al., 2000). Smit et al. (2000, p.223) explain that ‘the role adaptation to climate variability and change is significant both for impact assessments (to estimate adaptations which are likely to occur) and for policy development (to advise on or prescribe adaptations)’. However, the idea of incorporating future climate risk into policy-making is recently new.

A policy framework for adaptation based on the work of Burton et al. (2002) and

Lim et al. (2004) was reviewed in the context of adaptation to climate change. It is a common framework of concepts that helps in the design and organization of research for adaptation policy to reduce vulnerability (Burton et al., 2002).

2.3.1 The concepts of adaptation

Adaptation

Adaptation is a very broad concept that has found wide application in

environmental, social and economic systems (e.g. Clark, 1989; Timmerman, 1981;

Dovers & Handmer, 1991). Its roots were in the natural science, namely population biology and evolutionary ecology (Winterhalder, 1980). The IPCC

(1996) provides the following useful perspectives around adaptation:

‘Adaptability refers to the degree to which responses are possible in

practices, processes, or structures of systems to projected or actual changes.

Adaptation can be spontaneous or planned, and can be carried out in

response to or in anticipation of changes in conditions’ (IPCC, 1996, p.24)

The interest and focus of human’s response or ‘adaptation’ to climate change began in the early 1970s (Holling, 1978). It has been greatly highlighted in the

Second Assessment Report of the IPCC technical guideline (IPCC, 1996) as a means for coping with the impacts of climate change. Given future climate change is now inevitable (Smith & Lenhart, 1996; Parry et al., 1998; King, 2004), adaptation is ‘an essential strategy for reducing the severity and cost of climate change’ (Easterling et al., 2004, p.ii). Numerous reasons are given to pursue well- planned adaptation to climate change (IPCC, 2001b, p.890, based on Burton,

1996), which include the following:

i. climate change cannot be totally avoided

ii. anticipatory and precautionary adaptation is more effective and less

costly than forced, last-minute, emergency adaptation or retrofitting

iii. climate change may be more rapid and more pronounced than current

estimates suggest - unexpected events are possible

iv. immediate benefits can be gained from better adaptation to climate

variability and extreme atmospheric events

v. climate change brings opportunities as well as threats; future benefits

can result from climate change.

Resilience and Adaptation

To understand system responses, it is necessary to make a distinction between

‘short-term resilience’ and ‘long-term adaptation’. Easterlings (1996) makes a distinction between short-term resiliency (adjustments) to climate change and long-term cumulative adaptations. Short-term resilience refers to ‘the ability of an organism, community or ecosystem to absorb infrequent disturbance of varying magnitudes and then return to its pre-disturbance state’ (Easterling, 1996, p.4).

Accroding to Holling (1995), it is the buffer capacity or the ability of a system to absorb perturbations. For example, climate fluctuations such as late springs or early freezes have periodically temporarily influenced farmers’ crop selection choices, but have done little to change the basic organization of agriculture

(Warrick, 1980). It is an effect to keep system in a status quo and thus resilient.

Easterling (1996, p.4) states that:

‘Short-term adjustment in essence, is the first line of defence against

climate change…’

Long-term adaptation, however, is ‘the ability of an organization, community or system to change form and function in response to repeated disturbances’

(Easterling, 1996, p.4). It includes major structural changes to overcome adversity

(FAO, 2007). For example, ‘increasingly scarce irrigation water may cause a

change to dryland farming with all of the accompanying shifts in cultural practices, equipment acquisition, marketing infrastructure’, and ‘…such changes effect fundamental and long-term changes in the resource base and social preferences as reflected in governmental policies’ (Easterling, 1996, p.4).

2.3.2 Adaptation and mitigation

Adaptation and mitigation are the two fundamental but dissimilar options for managing the adverse impacts of climate change. These are initially set out in the

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Mitigation of climate change, as defined by the IPCC (2001c, p.716), refers to ‘an anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases’. Adaptation to climate change, on the other hand, defined by

IPCC (2001b, p.708), ‘refer to adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits benefical opportunities’.

Many scholars and researchers highlight the differences between mitigation and adaptation to climate change (Table 2.6). These include major differences in the dimensions of their spatial and temporal scales, cost-effectiveness, ‘actors’, and types of policies that may be implemented (Klevin et al., 2003; Dang et al., 2003;

Moomaw et al., 2001).

Mata (2007, p.799) emphasized that ‘climate change mitigation, through greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and sequestration is not a sufficient response’. Easterling et al.’s studies (2004, p.iii) differentiated ‘ “adaptation” as a

set of actions and strategies that present a complementary approach to

“mitigation”’. They contended that ‘mitigation could be viewed as reducing the likelihood of adverse conditions, while adaptation could be viewed as reducing the severity of many impacts if adverse conditions prevail’ (Easterling et al., 2004, p.iii).

Table 2.6 The Difference between Mitigation policies and Adaptation polices (based on Klevin et al., 2003; Dang et al., 2003; Moomaw et al., 2001; Füssel, 2006)

Responses to Climate change Differences Source Mitigation Policy Adaptation Policy Spatial and Mainly global benefits Typically on scale of an impacted Klein et al., temporal scales system (regional & local). (2005); Dang et al., Benefits are generally Can be effective more immediately (2003). evidenced over several by reducing vulnerability to climate Füssel and decades: ‘long-term’ variability: ‘short-term’ Klein, 2006

Cost- The cost-effectiveness of Difficult to express in a single Moomaw et effectiveness mitigation options can be metric;in terms of monetary damage al., (2001); determined and compared if avoided, human lives saves, losses Klein et al., the implementation costs are to natural and cultural values (2003). known. avoided, etc.

Actors Energy and transportation Agriculture, tourism and recreation, Klein et al., sectors in industrialised human health, water supply, coastal (2003). countries; management, urban planning and Energy, forestry and nature conservation, etc. agricultural sectors in developing countries.

Types of National and international Lack of immediate policy concern Klein et al., polices climate policy stimulating that creates less incentive to (2003). implemented mitigation activities. incorporate adaptation into decision- making.

Monitoring Relatively easy More difficult Füssel and Klein, 2006

2.3.3 Adaptation types and forms

Adaptation can occur via a huge variety of processes and forms. It has been differentiated according to numerous attributes (Smithers & Smit, 1997; Reilly &

Schimmelpfennig, 1999; Smit et al., 2000; Burton, 1996), with commonly used distinctions of purposefulness and timing attributes, as well as individual or group reaction choice categories.

Purposefulness and timing based adaptation types

The widely acknowledged distinction of purposefulness has been noted between

‘autonomous’ (autonomic, spontaneous, passive or natural) adaptation and

‘planned’ (strategic or active) adaptation, relating to the question of how adaptation occurs (Carter et al., 1994). Autonomous or spontaneous adaptation is considered to take place invariably as reactive responses to climatic stimuli, as a matter of course; planned adaptations on the other hand, result from deliberate

‘policy decisions’ (Smit et al., 2001; Carter et al., 1994).

Smit et al. (1996) describe autonomous adaptation as those that occur naturally, without interventions by public agencies and policies. Planned adaptation is

‘based on an awareness of anticipated climate change, and involves conscious human intervention in a system to protect or enhance its desirable traits’ (Pittock

& Jones, 2000, p.12). Actions taken by farmers or individual households are usually referred to as ‘autonomous adaptation’, while actions taken by governments as conscious policy decisions are referred to as ‘planned adaptation’

(Baas et al., 2009).

Depending on the timing, goal and motivation of adaptation implementation, it can be either ‘reactive’ or ‘proactive’ (Klein & Maciver, 1999; Klein et al., 1999).

This depends on when the adaptation occurs relative to the stimulus (Table 2.7).

‘Reactive adaptation occurs after the initial impacts of climate change have become manifest, while proactive adaptation takes place before the impacts have become apparent’ (Klein, 2002b, p.3). Autonomous adaptation both in natural and human systems is defined as reactive, while planned adaptation in human and systems can be both reactive and pro-active.

Table 2.7 Examples of reactive and proactive adaptation to climate change (Klein et al., 1999)

Reactive Proactive

Changes in length of growing season N/A Natural Changes in ecosystem composition Systems Wetland migration

Changes in farm practices Purchase of insurance

Practice Changes in insurance premiums Construction of house on stilts

Human Purchase of air-conditioning Redesign of oil-rigs Systems Compensatory payments and subsidies Early-warning systems

Policy Enforcement of building codes New building codes Beach nourishment Incentives for relocation

Choice options of individuals or groups

Adaptation can also been distinguished and classified by the choices of individuals/groups in response to climate stimuli in a system. The commonly used choice typology divides adaptation measures into eight categories (Burton, 1996;

UNEP, 1998; Downing et al., 1997), including: bear losses; share losses; modify the threat; prevent effects; change use; change location; research; and behavioral

change by educating, informing and encouraging (Figure 2.9). Based on the understanding of adaptation classification, extended knowledge of the role of community, institutional arrangement and public polices to Burton’s adaptation categories are shown in Figure 2.9 (UNEP, 1998; Downing et al., 1997).

Bear the loss: do nothing except bearing or accepting the losses. Structural, Share the loss: sharing the losses Technological among a wider community. Modify the threat: exercise a degree of Legislative, control over the threat itself. regulatory, financial

Institutional, Prevent the effects: a frequently used administrative set of measures involves steps to prevent the adverse effects. Market based

Adaptation/ Change use: consider change the use On-site operations

Response Options Response when continuation of threat happened.

Change location: a more extreme response of changing location of economic activities.

Research: research of new technologies and new methods of adaptation. Education, behavioral: dissemination of knowledge through education, public information campaigns, leading to behavioral changes. Need more priority.

Figure 2.9 Differentiated choice from individuals/groups’ to adapt to changes (Burton, 1996; UNEP, 1998; Downing et al., 1997)

Adaptation practices and examples

There are many potential adaptation practices and measures that may be adopted in response to climate change (Burton, 1998). The adaptation practices refer to

‘actual adjustments, or changes in decision environments, which might ultimately enhance resilience or reduce vulnerability to observed or expected changes in the climate’ (IPCC, 2007c, p.720).

Researchers summarize the adaptation practices by dividing them into several sections (Adger et al., 2001; Burton, 1996):

i. spatial scale: local, regional, national;

ii. sector: water resources, agriculture, tourism, public health, etc.;

iii. action type: physical, technological, investment, and market;

iv. actor: national or local government, international donors, private

sector, Non-governmental Orgnisations (NGOs), local communities

and individuals;

v. climatic zone: dryland, floodplains, mountains, Arctic, etc.;

vi. baseline income/development level of the systems: least-developed

countries, middle-income countries, and developed countries.

To understand the numerous adaptation practices crossing these different dimensions, it is crucial to research the various types of adaptation (Table 2.8) that have been implemented by a range of actors including individuals, communities, governments and the private sector to cope with impacts of climate change (selected and developed based on Adger et al., 2001). Besides the examples of adaptation to climate change conducted in different countries, there are several databases containing local adaptation practices (e.g. agricultural practices) for sustainable management and climate change including: UNFCCC database, FAO Technologies and Practices for Small Agricultural Producers

(TECA) database, FAO World Overview of Conservation Approaches and

Technologies (WOCAT), and some special databases for Africa such as FAO

Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development, World Bank databases, etc.

Table 2.8 Some examples of adaptation initiatives & practice by regions to climate change Region/ Climate Adaptation Practices Countries Stress AFRICA Egypt Sea-level rise Adoption of National Climate Change Action Plan (E1 Raey, integrating climate change concerns into national polices; 2004) adoption of Law 4/94 requiring environmental impact assessment (EIA) for project approval and regulating setback distances for coastal infrastructure; installation of hard structures in areas vulnerable to coastal erosion. Sahel More Expansion of water management techniques; reintroduction (FAO, frequent of traditional drought-resistant cereal crops; creation of 2009) drought, dammed wadis around lakes. Sudan Drought Expanded use of traditional rainwater harvesting and water (Osman et conserving techniques; building shelterbelts and windbreaks al., 2006) to improve resilience of rangelands; monitoring the number of grazing and cut trees; setting-up revolving credit funds. Botswana Drought National government programs to re-create employment (FAO, options after drought; capacity building of local authorities; 2004) assistance to small subsistence farmers to increase crop production. ASIA& OCEANIA Bangladesh Sea-level Consideration of climate change in the National Water (OECD, rise; salt- Management Plan; building of flow regulators in coastal 2003) water embankments; use of alternative crops and low-technology intrusion water filters. Philippines Drought, Adjustment of silvicultural treatment schedules to suit (Lasco et floods climate variations; shift to drought-resistant crops; use of al., 2006) shallow tube wells; rotation method of irrigation during water shortage; construction of water impounding basins; adoption of soil and water conservation for upland farming. ASIA& OCEANIA Nepal Risk of The government conducted a project from 1998 to 2002 (FAO, glacial (USD3.2 billion) to lower the lake level by three meters 2009) lake through drainage; cut a channel in the moraine and install a outburst gate to allow for controlled release of water; establish an early flood warning system in 19 downstream villages; involve local villagers in the design of the system, and drills are carried out periodically. Australia Water Decision-making process to assist in managing climate (COAG, resource change impacts; establish the “Australian Centre for Climate 2006) insecurity Change Adaptation”; improve knowledge for sourcing

additional water supply and retrofitting water infrastructure; develop a national digital elevation model (DEM) for whole water resource in Australia.

AMERICAS United Sea-level Land acquisitions programs taking account of climate change; States rise establishment of a ‘rolling easement’ in Texas, an entitlement (Easterlin to public ownership of property that ‘rolls’ inland with the g et al., coastlines as sea-level rise; other coastal policies that encourage 2004) coastal landowners to act in ways that anticipate sea-level rise. Mexico Drought Adjustments of planting dates and crop variety (e.g. inclusion and of drought-resistant plants such as agaves and aloe); Argentina accumulation of commodity stocks as economic reserve; (Wehbe et spatially separated plots for cropping and grazing to diversify al., 2006) exposures; diversification of income by adding livestock operations; set-up/provision of crop insurance.

2.3.4 Adaptation paradigm to climate change

Adaptation is important both as a way of estimating the impact climate change and as a response. It has ‘merit in policy consideration to existing climatic variation and uncertainty’ (Smithers & Smit, 1997, p.132). It is widely recognized that adaptation is essential to impact and vulnerability assessments, and hence is fundamental to estimating the costs or risk of climate change (IPCC, 2001b, p.881; based on Fankhauser, 1996; Yohe et al., 1996; Tol et al., 1998; UNEP, 1998; Smit et al, 1999; Pittock and Jones, 2000). Smit (1993) and Smit et al. (1999) summarized the ingredients and approaches in the adaptation paradigm (Figure

2.10).

Smithers and Smit (1997, p.131) comment that ‘changes in climate are expected to have ecological and socio-economic impacts’. Thus the extent to which

‘ecosystem, food supplies, and sustainable development are vulnerable or “in danger” depends on exposure to changes in climate and on the ability of the impacted system to adapt’ (IPCC, 2001b, p.879).

The adaptation paradigm outlines concerns about these results within the following two broad responses (Smit et al., 1996): limitation or mitigation of the greenhouse gas emissions so that climate does not change as much or as fast; and adaptation to the climate stimuli and their consequences.

Figure 2.10 Places of Adaptation in Climate Change Issues (Smit, 1993; Smit et al., 1996)

‘Adaptation to climate does not occur in isolation from the influence of other forces, but instead occurs amid a complex set of economic (micro and macro), social, and institutional circumstances which establish a location-specfic context for human-environment interactions’ (Smithers & Smit, 1997, p.131). Easterling et al. (2004, p.iv) stated that ‘success of adaptation to climate change critically depends on the availability of necessary resources, not only financial and natural resources, but also knowledge, technical capability, and institutional resources’.

The IPCC (1996) emphasized that understanding the prospects for adaptation to environmental change requires a more qualitative understanding and insight into the sensitivity and vulnerability of the impacted region or system.

Füssel and Klein (2006, p.304) conclude that the two important preconditions for the effective adaptation to climate change are: ‘information on what to adapt to

and how to adapt, and resources to implement the adaptation measures’. They emphasize that before seeking to help vulnerable societies to prepare for and cope with impacts of climate change, it is essential to collect all available information regarding the vulnerable system and the stressors that it is exposed to, and transfer the necessary resources to them.

Wreford et al. (2010) conclude that, based on its main purposes in response to observed or expected changes and their impacts, there are three adaptation types:

(1) adaptation to reduce the sensitivity of the affected system; (2) adaptation to alter the exposure of a system to the effects of climate change; and (3) adaptation to increase the resilience of the social and ecological systems.

2.3.5 Adaptive management in climatic uncertainty

Adaptive management has thus become one of the most common approaches used to deal with the scientific, economic and political uncertainties of climate change

(Walters and Holling, 1990; Lee, 1999; Gilmour, 1999). The appropriate concept for both policy design and assessment is the recognition of the inevitability of uncertainties (Holling, 1978).

Walters’ (1997) paper discusses the application of the Adaptive Environmental

Assessment and Management approach (Holling, 1978; Walters, 1986; Lee, 1993) of a structured process of learning by doing, in order to manage ecological systems. The capacity to learn is required in order to cope with uncertainty and unexpected situations. Peterson et al. (1997, p.4) argue that the ‘policy-based experimentation advocated by adaptive management is essential to reduce the

ecological, social and economic costs of learning’.

Therefore, adaptive management has a focus on alternative hypotheses and gaps in knowledge that will be most useful in research and action priorities (Holling,

1978; Walters, 1997). The IPCC uses the adaptive approach with the science of climate change and the uncertainty surrounding climate change. In short, Johnson

(1999b, p.11) concludes that adaptive management ‘addresses the uncertainty directly by using management as a tool to gain critical knowledge’.

Adaptive management approach

Adaptive management is regarded as an experimental approach to guiding environmental decision-making. Grounded in industrial operation theory in the

1950s (Everett & Ebert, 1986; Senge, 1990), adaptive management was first applied as a methodological innovation and a strategy in natural resource management in the 1970s (Holling, 1978; Walters, 1986). It has received considerable attention as a means to link learning with policy and implementation

(Holling, 1978; Walters, 1986; Walters & Holling, 1990; Johnson, 1999b; Lee,

1999).

Lee (1999, p.3) appraised adaptive management as ‘a policy implementation approach by examining its conceptual, technical, equity and practical strengths and limitations’. Lee identified that adaptive management is ‘grounded in the admission that humans do not know enough to manage ecosystems’, and in this perspective, ‘adaptive management formulates management policies as experiments that probe the responses of ecosystems as people’s behavior in them

changes’ (Lee, 1999, p.4). Walters and Holling (1990) describe this experimental priority as ‘active’ adaptive management; it accepts the fact that ‘management must proceed even if we do not have all the information we would like, or we are not sure what all the effects of management might be’ (Johnson, 1999b, p.8).

For Holling (1978, 1990), the central idea of adaptive management was uncertainty, accepting the reality that human’s knowledge is incomplete and sometimes uneven ignorant (e.g. for ecosystems, about the management effects).

Holling (1978, p.7) also argued that ‘however intensively and extensively data are collected, and however much we know of how the system functions, the domain of our knowledge of specific ecological and social systems is small compare to that of our ignorance’. There is still uncertainty about the structure and behavior of ecological systems.

Lee (1999) noted that the goal of implementing management experiments in an adaptive context is to ‘learn something’. In this way, adaptive management is learning by doing. ‘Adaptive management does not postpone action until

“enough” is known’ (Lee, 1999, p.5), but ‘treats actions and polices as hypotheses from which learning derives’ (USDA, 2005, p.5). It is important to learn during the design and implementation of policies (Holling, 1978; Walters, 1986; Walters

& Holling, 1990).

Compared with other management approaches (such as the trial and error, or small experiments), adaptive management differs in various ways (Allan, 2007).

Adaptive management identifies the importance of sharing information and

findings to inform the implementation of management actions and policies

(Holling, 1978; Walters, 1986). It is also vital to gather together the relevant stakeholders to participate in the planning/identification phase (refer to the cycle in Figure 2.11). Adaptive management is used as a tool for larger scale management, for instance managing the ecosystem, economic and social complexity on a large scale (Walters, 1997; Lessard, 1998).

Adaptive management cycle

The key elements of adaptive management explored by Holling (1978), Walters

(1986) and Lee (1993) are: design and experimentation; learning from experimentation; the linkage between knowledge and action; knowledge integrated from various sources; and responsive institutions. Holling (1978) stated that the process of adaptive environmental management for policy design mainly occurs during the design phase and after implementation. It is regarded as an alternative approach; combining environmental, economic and social understandings at the very beginning of the design process (Holling, 1978). US

Department of Agriculture-US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land

Management (USDA-USDI) (1994) proposed a four-phase adaptive management cycle (Figure 2.11) that frame the above elements in a continuing management process.

Figure 2.11 The Adaptive Management Cycle (Source: USDA-USDI, 1994: E-14)

As demonstrated by Figure 2.11, adaptive management requires explicit problem framing and problem-solving designs during the planning phase. All plans are based on the existing knowledge, goals, technology and inventories. Actions and monitoring are then initiated. The evaluation phase is implemented gathering findings on the whole management cycle. The cycle could reinitiate, driven by emerging knowledge and experience (USDA, 2005). Thus, ‘Learning becomes the key output of this adaptive management process’ (USDA, 2005, p.62).

Institutional issues of adaptive management

Compared to traditional approaches to designing mechanisms and policy issues, the adaptive approach is a more effective and realistic alternative for policy markers and agency managers (Holling, 1978; Walters, 1986). However, there is a variety of issues regarding the effective implementation of adaptive management

(USDA, 2005).

Johnson (1999b, p.8) suggests that ‘incorporating adaptive management into agency will require some changes in management philosophy’. There needs to be a shift from maintaining systems in a single optimal state of resource condition towards developing an optimal management capacity (Johnson, 1999b).

Gunderson (1999) indicates that adaptive management is impossible when either the agencies or the stakeholders are too inflexible to try new approaches. He suggests that adaptive management experiments in agencies and stakeholders could develop to promote institutional flexibility and cooperative management.

One goal of adaptive management is to ‘understand the potential trade-offs among stakeholder interests under different management plans and to tries to understand innovative approaches and “win-win” situations whenever possible’ (Johnson,

1999b, p.3). It is essential to consider how stakeholders value the resources and what knowledge they can contribute (Johnson, 1999a). The application of adaptive management might be improved in the future by including a more open and more participative discussion of the differences in stakeholder values (Holling,

1976; Walter, 1999; Lee, 1999; Johnson, 1999a). More about the analysis and participation of different stakeholder will be discussed in the following sections.

2.3.6 Climate adaptation policy: a top-down or bottom-up approach

The literature on the institutional requirement for adaptation suggests that public policy plays an essential role in facilitating adaptation to climate change (Burton et al., 2002; Tompkins & Adger, 2005; Paavola & Adger, 2006). This includes reducing the vulnerability of people and infrastructure, providing information for investment and decision-making, enabling the development and application of

technology, and enhancing the institutional flexibility (Tompkins & Adger, 2005;

CCCC, 2006). Other research states the case for international financial and technology transfers, which are used in adapting to the impacts of climate change are significant, particularly, the tranfers from countries with high greenhouse gas emissions to countries that are most vulnerable to present and future climate change impacts (Burton et al., 2002; Dow et al., 2006; Paavola & Adger, 2006).

In the context of climate change, the term ‘mainstreaming’ refers to ‘the integration of climate change vulnerabilities or adaptation into some aspects of development related government policy such as water management, disaster preparedness, and emergency planning or land use planning’ (IPCC, 2007c, p.732, based on Agrawala, 2005). IPCC (2007b, p.732) thus concluded that ‘by implementing mainstreaming initiatives, it is argued that policy on adaptation to climate change will become part of or will be consistent with other well- established programs, particularly sustainable development policy and planning’.

The literature emphasizes the role of government and policy in the adaptation process, but also recognizes the constraints that are faced in formulating and implementing adaptation policies (Few et al., 2007). Agrawala and van Aalst

(2005) distinguish the following five major constraints in mainstreaming and implementing the adaptation actions at different scales:

i. relevance of climate information for development-related decisions

ii. uncertainty of climate information

iii. compartmentalization with governments

iv. segmentation, and other barriers within development agencies

v. trade-offs between climate and development objectives.

Dessi and Hulme (2004) thus state that the impact and adaptation assessment of climate change studies are essential for providing information to decision-makers and risk managers for them to mainstream the climate adaptation policy. The majority of impact and adaptation assessment has taken a prediction-oriented

‘top-down’ approach (Dessi and Hulme, 2004) (Figure 2.12). The ‘top-down’ approach starts by exploring climate change scenarios and estimating the impacts through scenario analysis (Carter et al. 1994; Parry & Carter 1998; Dessai &

Hulme, 2004). However, the information gathered through the ‘top-down’ approach has limited applicability for adaptation decision-making, particularly on local and regional scales (EPA, 2011). Burton et al. (2002) argue that this occurs as a result of: (i) the wide range of potential and uncertain impacts; (ii) the mismatch of resolution between global climate models and adaptation measures, specifically at a local level; (iii) climate change impact assessments are not designed to consider a range of adaptation options; iv) adaptation is incorporated as an assumption rather than explored as a process; and v) the impact and adaptation assessment is being initially developed for the scientific purpose of understanding impacts.

In contrast, the ‘bottom-up’ approach to climate change and adaptation starts ‘at the bottom of the impacted system and explores how resilient or robust this system is to changes and variations in climate variables and how adaptation can make the system less prone to uncertain and largely unpredictable variations and trends in the climate’ (Dessai & Sluijs, 2007, p.6). The ‘bottom-up’ approach

takes a vulnerability perspective when adaptation strategies are possible to involve all the aspects of localized socio-economic and policy environments, and farmers’ perceptions (Bryant et al., 2000; Wall & Smit, 2005; Belliveau et al., 2006).

Therefore it is argued that the ‘bottom-up’ approach has been very useful for understanding the vulnerability of the system to present-day (or recent historic) climate variability and also the underlying causes of vulnerability (Dessi & Hulme,

2004). This approach thus enables the development of strategies of resilience and adaptive environmental management that enhance the coping capacity of individuals or social groups to respond to (i.e. to cope with, recover from or adapt to) any climatic stress placed on their livelihoods (Pielke, 1998; Adger, 1999;

Kelly and Adger, 2000; Barnett, 2001; Burton et al., 2002; Clark & Pulwarty,

2003).

Figure 2.12 ‘Top-down’ and ‘bottom-up’ approaches used to inform and integrate climate adaptation policy (Source: Dessai & Hulme, 2004)

2.4 Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation

2.4.1 Agriculture sector exposed to climate change

Although climate change is expected to have many impacts on various social- ecological systems, impacts on agriculture are deemed to among the most crucial

(Easterling, 1996; Reilly et al., 2003; Kurukulasuriya et al., 2006; Howden et al.,

2007). Agriculture faces diverse threats posed by climate change, including how potential changes in climate may alter biological features, farming structures, allocation and also productivity of farming systems throughout the world

(Schimmelpfennig et al., 1996).

The UNFCCC identifies agriculture as being particularly vulnerable and significant in terms of the numbers of people affected and the severity of impacts on those least able to cope. Therefore actions should be taken:

…within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to

climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to

enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner…

(UNFCCC, 1992, Article 2, p.4)

Impacts on agriculture mainly occur through changes in climate variability, seasonality, mean precipitations and water availability, and the emergence of new diseases (Fischlin et al., 2007). Changes in water availability, water quality, temperatures, and diseases are also likely to have impacts on agricultural productivity (Gunasekera, 2007). Agriculture is thus considered to be the sector most vulnerable to climatic conditions and to changes in the base supply of

natural resources, especially water. Should climate change occur to the extent predicted (IPCC, 2007b), substantial geographic shifts in agricultural production and structure will or may result (Darwin, 1995).

Wreford et al. (2010, p.37) emphasize that the effects of climate change on agriculture are characterized by various forms of uncertainty, which include: ‘(i) uncertainties concerning the rate and magnitude of climate change, uncertainties around the biological response of agricultural outputs; (ii) and uncertainties as to how society responds to projected impacts’. Notwithstanding this uncertainty, decisions still need to be made (Fischlin et al., 2007).

Kane et al. (1991), Reilly et al. (1994), Winters et al. (1994), Darwin et al. (1995), and Schimmelpfennig et al. (1996) have estimated the potential effects of the four different climate scenarios2 for world agriculture. The different economic models show significantly diverse impacts (on yield, welfare, price, production and trade) according to scenarios, countries/regions and commodities. It can be drawn from these studies that climate change will have a strong effect on yield. However, all these models have been structured around interpreting the economic consequences of climate change on the production of agricultural commodities at global and regional levels rather than a social and policy framework on local and livelihood levels.

2 Climate change scenarios are generated by the General Circulation Models (GCM’s), which

provide the most detailed projections of Earth’s climate under elevated atmospheric CO2

levels. Four GCM scenarios are the 2×CO2 simulations of the models at Goddard Institute fro Space Studies (GISS), the General Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), and Oregon State University (OSU), Space Studies (GISS), the General Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), and Oregon State University (OSU).

Therefore, the focus of this research will not only be on the potential economic losses caused by climate change on national and regional levels, but also on a range of the other important factors. These will include consideration of how

China’s small farmers explore opportunities through agricultural policies, regional agricultural plans and other mechanisms, including alternative livelihood strategies.

2.4.2 Climate change and food security

The World Food Summit (WFS) in November 1996 defined the term food security by stating that: ‘Food security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life’ (FAO, 1996).

The four dimensions of food security; food availability, food accessibility, food utilization and food system stability have been significantly affected (FAO, 2008).

Climate variability and climate change, including CO2 fertilization effects, changing global mean temperatures, precipitation patterns and more frequent and more intense extreme weather events, are imposing substantial impacts on food security (Table 2.9).

Table 2.9 Some potential impacts of climate change on food systems and food security (source: adopted based on FAO, 2008) Potential impacts on food security Climate change effects Impact on food system assets Impact on food system activities Impact on food security outcomes

A. Increase in • Trend changes in suitability of land • Immediate crop and livestock losses due • Reduced production of food crops and livestock global mean for crop and livestock production to heat and water stress products in affected areas temperature • Gradual loss of biodiversity • Trend impacts uncertain, conditional on • Local losses could have temporary effect on • Strain on electricity grids, air location, availability of water and local markets, conditioning and cold storage capacity adoption of new cropping patterns by • Impacts on incomes, prices and affordability farmers uncertain • Upgrade in cooling and storage facilities • Higher cost for storing grain and perishable required to maintain food quality at products higher temperatures B. Gradual changes • Loss of perennial crops and vegetative • Immediate crop and livestock losses due • Declines in production in precipitation cover for grazing and fuel wood due to water stress • Decrease in food exports, increase in food (increase in the to water stress and increasing fire • Trend declines in yields imports frequency, duration hazard • Scarcity of water for food processing • Increased need for food aid and intensity of dry • Changes in rates of soil moisture • May not be possible to continue growing • Local increase in food prices in drought-affected spells and retention and aquifer recharge preferred foods areas droughts) • May be necessary to purchase a larger • Loss of farm income and non-farm employment proportion of foods consumed • Greater instability of food supply, food prices and agriculturally-based incomes C. Gradual changes • Changes in rates of soil moisture • Trend impacts on yields uncertain, • Some local losses virtually certain, but their in precipitation retention and aquifer recharge conditional on location, availability of likely geographic distribution is not known (changes in timing, • Increase in proportion of global water and adoption of new cropping • Likely impact on global supplies, trade and location and population exposed to water scarcities patterns by farmers world market prices is not known amounts of rain • Changes in locations where • Changes in consumption patterns may • Full-cost pricing for water may cause food prices and snowfall) investment in irrigation is occur, in response to changes in relative to rise economically feasible prices D. Impacts of • Change in frequency and extent of • Increasing uncertainty • Some local losses virtually certain, but their greater weather pests and diseases • Changing yields and land use patterns likely geographic distribution is not known variability • Viability of production systems may be • Reduced yields may lead to loss of farm income, undermined but this depends on market conditions

2.4.3 Crop yields and food price affected by climate change

Studies suggest that possible increases in global temperature and changes in precipitation patterns during the next century will affect world agricultural productivity and yield (Darwin, 1995). Many researches project that world and regional agricultural production capacity will be affected by climate change and temperature increase (Table 2.10).

Table 2.10 Projected impacts of increasing temperature on global agriculture

Temperature change/CO Region 2 Yield change (%) Source concentration/year World Agricultural Global average temperature -0.8 to - 0.3, ERS, 2001 production increase of 2.8-5.2 ºC by relative to 1990 2100, relative to 1990.

Australia Total productivity of Given <1ºC temperature -4.2 to -7.3, relative Heyhoe et al., wheat in NSW and change, relative to 1990. to 1990 2007 WA

Africa Net income from Year 2100 -54, relative to 2007 Seo & Mendel- livestock sohn, 2007

China Wheat yields 1ºC temperature change -5.4 to -1.5 You et al., 2005

Canada Cow/calf/dairy 5ºC temperature change -10, relative to 1990 Lemmen & production Warren, 2004 India Wheat yields 0.5 to 1.5 ºC temperature -2 to -5 IPCC, 2007b change Southern Europe Legume yields Year 2050 -30 to +5, relative IPCC, 2007b to baseline Northern Europe Wheat yields Year 2080 + 10 to +30, IPCC, 2007b relative to baseline

The impacts of climate change on the world cereal price projected by many studies (Reilly et al., 1994; Adams et al., 1995; Parry et al., 1999, 2004; Fischer et al., 2002; Darwin, 2004) are summarized as a visual diagram in Figure 2.13.

Studies denote that the real agricultural output price will decline even up to 2.5°C mean temperature increase, as long as there are modest increases in precipitation

(Reilly at al., 1994; Adams et al., 1995; Darwin, 2004) and an increase in population. If global mean temperature increases to 5.5°C or more, then food prices could increase by an average of 30 per cent (Reilly at al., 1994; Adams et al., 1995).

Figure 2.13 Cereal prices (percent of baseline) along with global mean temperature change for major modeling studies (source: from Easterling et al., 2007, p.297)

While, Parry et al. (1999; 2004; 2005) and Fischer et al. (2002) argue that real price will increase whatever the range in global mean temperature rises, Nelson et al. (2009) state that without climate change, the world prices for most agricultural crops including rice, wheat, maize and soybeans will increase regardless between

2000 and 2050. This is mainly due to the population and income growth, and the increasing demand for biofuels (Figure 2.14). However, Fischer et al. (2002) argue that climate change will result in additional price increases beyond the influences attributed to growing populations and economic development.

Figure 2.14 The world prices (USD/metric ton) of major grains in 2000 and 2050 with and without projected climate change effects (source: from Nelson et al., 2009, p.6)

Such projected world food price increases under the influence of climate change scenarios will drive the growth in the number of people at risk from hunger worldwide (Parry et al., 2004). The estimated figures (see details in Figure 2.15) show a large range (from 100 million to 300 million) of extra people at risk from hunger by 2050 and up to 550 million extra people by the 2080s due to climate change (assuming no offsetting CO2 fertilization effects on yield).

It is also important to realize that agriculture is a primary sector of the economy in many developing countries and is the primary source of livelihood for about 70

percent of rural populations (Easterling, 2007). Many other studies also express concerns that agricultural losses due to climate change will be especially harmful to developing countries (Rosenzweig & Parry, 1994; Pearce et al., 1996;

Mendelsohn & Dinar, 1999; Mendelsohn & Williams, 2004; Cline et al., 2007).

Figure 2.15 Additional millions of people at risk from hunger compared to no climate change reference case under the seven Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios (Source: Parry et al., 2004, p.66)

It is assumed that the capacity of societies or sectors to adapt to climate risks relates to their level of economic development, with the more economically

‘developed’ societies having greater access to technology and resources to invest in adaptation (Adger & Vincent, 2005; Yohe & Tol, 2002; Brooks et al, 2005). As a consequence, Parry et al. (2005) suggest that there is a need for significant adaptation to offset potential negative impacts, particularly in low latitude developing countries.

2.4.4 Adaptation practices to limit impacts on agriculture

Given the potentially large direct impacts on yield arising from climate change, adaptation will be essential to limit losses and adverse impacts on agriculture (e.g.

Reilly & Schimmelpfennig, 1999; Easterling, 1996; FAO, 2007). Of benefit to such endeavors are that adaptations to climatic conditions are quite common in agriculture, as the sector is particularly sensitive to climatic variability and extreme events (Reilly & Schimmelpfennig, 1999).

Many kinds of technological, public policy and farm management options are innovated within this very adaptable agricultural sector to moderate problematic climate change impacts and/or realize opportunities (Smit & Skinner, 2002).

Major agricultural adaptation actions are summarized within key categories in

Table 2.11. Smit and Skinner (2002) developed this type of classification by examining the agricultural adaptation practices in Canada, many of which are also currently undertaken to some extent in cropping systems elsewhere throughout the world.

Table 2.11 Types and examples of adaptation to different extents within agriculture (source: from Smit & Skinner, 2002)

Adaptation approach Adaptation types Examples Technological Crop development Invest and develop new crop varieties, including hybrids, to increase tolerance and suitability of plants development to temperature, water, moisture and other relevant adverse conditions. Weather and climate Develop early warning systems that provide daily weather predications and seasonal forecasts. information systems

Resource management Develop water management innovations, including irrigation, to address the risks of water deficiencies innovations and risk of drought and changing seasonality of precipitation. Develop farm-level resource management innovations to address the risks associated with changing temperature, moisture and other climatic conditions.

Farm production Farm production Diversify crop types and varieties including crop substitution. practices and innovations Change the production intensity to address the environmental variations and economic risks associated technological with climate change. adoption Land-use change Change the location of crops and livestock production to address the environmental variation and economic risks associated with climate change. Irrigation Implement irrigation practices to address the water stress associated with climate change and reduce the risk of income loss due to recurrent drought.

Timing of operations Change the timing of farm operations to address the changing duration of growing seasons and associated changes in temperature and moisture. Government Agricultural support Modify crop insurance programs to influence farm-level risk management strategies. programs and programs Change investment in established income stabilization programs to influence farm-level risk insurance management strategies. Private insurance Support programs to influence farm-management practices and financial management.

Complementary resource Develop public policies for water resource conservation and complementary conservation objectives. management programs

Smit and Skinner (2002) argue adaptation in agriculture occurs eventually via decisions of producers (e.g. to employ a new technology, chose a different crop, change a farming practice, alter farming timing, modify inputs, buy insurance, or engage in a national or regional program). Such decisions, including the modifications to on-going farm practices, are already being made in the comprehensive context of prevailing climatic variability, social and economic conditions, institutional and regulatory arrangements, as well as existing technology, public policy, financial status and social norms (Bryant et al., 2000).

Many public programs and policies are thus designed to directly influence individual behavior (farmers or individual industry) with respect to adaptation.

The key roles of public policy interventions to promote adaptation in the agricultural sector should include (Adger et al., 2010, p.13): ‘reducing the vulnerability of those least able to adapt; provision of information to stimulate widespread adoption of adaptation techniques and opportunities; and enhancd role for provision of public goods associated with agriculture’.

Possible policy instruments for adaptation in agriculture include price signals and market mechanisms, insurance instruments, microfinance, research & development incentives and public-private partnerships (Fankhauser et al., 2008).

2.5 Chapter Summary

This literature review chapter focuses on the key issues of climate change, vulnerability and adaptation that underlay the thesis research. It outlines the key findings, concepts, theoretical frameworks, and implications of these issues. The

review describes and synthesizes the major studies relating to this thesis topic, which contextualize this research. The following paragraphs include key points that have been highlighted in this literature review chapter.

First of all, the climate system is highly complex, dynamic and uncertain.

Warming of Earth’s climate system is unequivocal. The warming occurs mainly due to increases in greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Changes in climate and the consequences are already being recorded, including increased variability in precipitation, sea level rise, and enhanced extreme events. All these changes are inevitably affecting both the environment and people. However, the changes in the climate and their consequential impacts on environmental and social systems are difficult to predict.

Vulnerability to climate change has been the focus of recent studies by many scholars. Various concepts, interpretations, and assessment frameworks of vulnerability to climate change have been reviewed and analyzed. The idea that the ‘vulnerability of a system can be attributed to an interaction between its physical, social and economic conditions’ is the base of this thesis design. The conceptual model of vulnerability to climate change of Ford and Smit (2004), and

Smit and Wandel (2006), has been applied to evaluate the vulnerability in the case study.

Finally, adaptation becomes the key for people to reduce the adverse effects of climate change and decrease the vulnerability of environmental and social systems.

The concepts, types, practices and measures of adaptation to climate change are

reviewed and analyzed. Adaptation to climate is thus reviewed and appraised as the best way for people to respond in order to reduce their vulnerability, and/or take advantage of the changes. Impacts of climate change on agriculture are deemed to among the most crucial; as agricultural productivity is highly sensitive to the changes in water availability, land quality, rainfall and temperature. Direct impacts of the changing climate on agricultural production would be translated into the uncertainty of farmers’ livelihood and food security. Thus, adaptation will be essential to limit losses and minimized the adverse impacts on agriculture and farmer’s livelihoods.

CHAPTER THREE CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS

IMPACTS IN CHINA

3.1 Recent and Future Climate Change in China

3.1.1 Observed warmer temperature

China has experienced a trend in increasing surface temperature in the past several decades, corresponding to global warming elsewhere. The synthesis report of the

IPCC states that the effects of enhanced greenhouse gases resulted in a global average air temperature rise of 0.74 (0.56 to 0.92) ºC in the 100-year period of

1906-2005 (IPCC, 2007e). It also indicates that this increase is widespread over the globe and is even greater at higher northern latitudes. Consistent with air temperature increases in the Northern Hemisphere, an increasing trend (0.5-0.8 ºC) of mean surface air temperature was detected over the past 100 years in China

(Ding et al., 2006b). A strong warming over the past five decades is also measured, by an increase of 1.2 ºC since 1960 (Ding et al., 2007; Wei and Chen,

2009).

There were also observed temperature variations along with an overall increasing trend over the past 100 years in China. Figure 3.1 (Tang & Ren, 2005) shows there have been two major sudden rises of annual temperature in China from 1920 to 1940, and again after the 1980s. From the 1950s to 2000s, the average warming rate of mean surface air temperature has climbed to 1.1 ºC, a rise that exceeds that of the rest of the world (Ding et al., 2006b). However, the mean maximum temperatures provide no statistically significant trend for China as a whole (Zhai et al., 1999).

Figure 3.1 Changes of annual mean surface air temperature (temperature anomaly3/ºC) of China 1905-2001 (source: Tang & Ren, 2005)

Similar to the global trends and the trends in the Northern Hemisphere, the temperature increase in China was most prominent in winter (0.04ºC per year) and autumn (0.02ºC per year), with no statistically significant changes in spring and summer (Qin, 2007). For example, 19 winters during the 20-year period from

1986-2006 were ranked as the warmest in the past 50 years, with the highest instrumental mean winter temperature record of 9.92 ºC in year 2006 (Qin, 2007).

The changes of mean surface air temperature in different regions in China were distinctive (Ding et al, 2006b; Li et al., 2003). In north China, northeast China, northwest China and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, a more significant warming trend of annual mean temperature has emerged in the last 100 years. While a cooling trend in southwest China and the middle/down-stream areas of the

3 The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value. Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.php

Yangtze River has continued since the last century (Ding et al., 2007; Tang et al.,

2005; Li et al., 2003).

3.1.2 Observed variations in precipitation pattern

Before investigating the variations in China’s precipitation pattern, it is necessary to trace the causes and effects of precipitation changes beyond China’s regional level. The global climatic change arising from increasing greenhouse gas emissions is expected to have long-term effects on the global hydrological systems. An intensification of the hydrological cycle under the influence of climate change conditions has been detected at both global and regional scales

(IPCC, 2007b; McGuffie et al., 1999). According to the IPCC (2007b), distinctive to the changes in other regions (e.g. an upward linear trends in rainfall of between

6 and 8 per cent in central North America, eastern North America, northern

Europe, northern Asia and central Asia), there were hardly any significant long- term changes in east Asia during the period 1900 to 2005, except for plentiful rains during the 1950s.

In general, precipitation is commonly influenced by the concentrated summer monsoon seasons in most regions of China (Gong, 2000). It is acknowledged that precipitation varies greatly across seasons and regions throughout China, ranging from less than 100mm/year in the arid northwest to more than 1000mm/year in southeast (Liu et al., 2005).

Liu et al. (2005) and Ding et al. (2006b) analyzed changes in the mean annual precipitation from 1956 to 2002 and found little systematic changes, amounting to

only 2 per cent (about 2.9mm/decade) but increasing over the period (Figure 3.2 and Table 3.1). Summer and winter were the two seasons with increasing trends of precipitation by 3.5mm/decade and 2.6mm/decade, respectively, over the period of 1960 to 2000. In contrast, the annual precipitation decreased in spring and autumn by 1.3mm/decade and 2.0mm/decade, respectively, during the same period. At the same time, temporal variation between years during that period was significant.

Figure 3.2 Standardized anomalies of annual precipitation over China in 1956-2002 (Ding et al., 2006b)

Table 3.1 Annual and seasonal trends of precipitation amount and frequency in China 1960-2000 (Liu et al., 2005) Precipitation Winter Spring Summer Fall Trends Annual Monsoon Transition Monsoon Transition (Per decade) (Dec-Feb) (Mar-May) (June-Aug) (Sep-Nov) Amount Change rate 2.9 2.6 -1.3 3.5 - 2.0 (mm/decade)

Frequency Change rate -2.3 -1.0 -0.2 -1.5 -0.6 (days/decade)

Various studies have also been conducted to measure and analyze the changes in precipitation characteristics (both in frequency and intensity) across different regions in China (Zhai et al., 1999; Liu, 2005; Liu et al., 2005). Though precipitation in China as a whole increased during the period 1960 to 2000, the frequency of precipitation events decreased by 10 per cent in all seasons and all regions except in northwest China (Liu, 2005). Zhai et al. (1999) and Liu et al.

(2005) also found that precipitation decreased in frequency with fewer days having precipitation ≥ 0.1 mm, but increased in intensity measured as ‘mm per precipitating day’ across years. Although the annual precipitation trend has not changed significantly in the past 100 years, it has shown obvious differences across regions and decadal variability. The precipitation changes in respect to annual total precipitation amount and frequency (1960-2000), in all eight climatic regions of China, are presented in Figure 3.3.

Figure 3.3 Regional precipitation changes in annual total precipitation amount, and frequency, in China 1960-2000 (modified from Liu et al., 2005)

It is shown in Figure 3.3 that the total amount of annual precipitation decreased in the North China Plain (including the Loess Plateau) and North Central China, but increased in the northeast, northwest, east, southeast and the Tibetan Plateau, with almost no change in southwest China. The frequency of precipitation increased in northwest China and decreased in the other seven regions.

It was drier in the North China Plain and the Yellow River Basin because it has rained less in the past several decades. For instance, the annual mean precipitation along the Yellow River dropped by an average of 45mm (with variation of annual mean precipitation ranging from 350mm to 530mm) from the years 1971 to 2000

(Zhu et al., 2005). In contrast, there was a wetting trend in the Yangtze River

Basin in south China mainly due to a significant rising of summer rainfalls (Ren et al., 2003; 2004).

3.1.3 Changes of glaciers and sea level

Glaciers changes in China

The continuing melting of mountain glaciers and ice caps is one of the key indicators of climate change (IPCC, 2001a). The IPCC has recognized glacial melting as an overall temperature indicator by measuring glacier variations since early 1990 (IPCC, 1996). Most mountain glaciers have retreated significantly since the Little Ice Age (roughly 1500-1920) and have accelerated in their retreat over the last two to three decades (Barry, 2006). Global warming is considered to be the decisive factor behind glacier melting; glacial melting will lead to a further rise in sea level, altered runoff and ecosystem change, and the reshaping of water resources and hydropower (Barry, 2006; Dyurgerov & Meier, 1997).

The China Glacier System Database (2007) records 46 298 current glaciers with a total area of 59,406 km2 and an estimated total ice volume of 5,590 km3. More than 80 per cent of China’s glaciers cover the mountains in the Tibetan Plateau.

The two glacier margins of the Geladandong area and the A’nyêmaqên Mountains are the essential headwaters of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River, respectively (Figure 3.4). The increases in summer temperature by 0.25ºC per decade and partial decreases in precipitation are the main direct causes of glaciers retreating and melting (Yang et al., 2003b). It has been found that China’s total glacial areas have shrunk by 9.05 per cent in last 30 years (Ding et al. 2005; Yang et al., 2003b).

Figure 3.4 Distribution of glaciers in source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers (modified from Yang et al. 2003, 2007)

The consequences of enhanced glacier melting and resulting glacial water losses would be unfavorable for downstream agriculture along the Yangtze River and the

Yellow River. It is also predicted that the rate of glacial retreat in spring will

accelerate, thereby increasing water sources at those times and creating the possibility for flooding. However, such glacial retreat could also cause significant water shortages in autumn (Batima et al., 2004, 2005).

Sea level rises in China

China’s Sea Level Bulletin (2007) shows that the sea level in China has risen by

2.5mm per year over that last century, which is a little higher than the global average level. Data from China’s State Oceanic Administration indicate that coastal sea level in China, on average, has increased 90mm in the past 30 years. It also found that sea level rise is greater in the northern areas of China than in the southern areas. For instance, the coastal sea level in Tianjin has risen up to

196mm in past 30 years. It is predicted that sea level in China will rise by between

18mm and 59mm by the end of twenty-first century at a minimum (IPCC, 2007b).

3.1.4 Future climatic trends in China

The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the IPCC (2007b) pointed out that the temperature variations over 70 per cent of global land area were very likely to increase; extreme precipitation events in many mid-latitude regions were likely to increase; and the total area affected by drought since the 1970s was also likely to increase (Alexander et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007b). These changes in climate are very likely to continue (IPCC, 2007b). The general trends in climatic events were described at a large spatial scale, but the changes in particular regions were not conclusive (Kunkel, 2003; Wang et al., 2008) and need to be assessed. China is no exception (IPCC, 2001a).

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The IPCC Special Report Emissions Scenario (SRES) describes new scenarios of the future and predicts greenhouse gas emissions associated with different levels of development (Figure 3.5). The IPCC SRES scenarios include four scenario families of A1, A2, B1 and B2. Both A1 (a global economic world) and B1 (a global environmental world) stand for the climate change scenarios at the global level, while A2 and B2 focus on regional and local levels. Note that the scenarios of A2 (a regional economic world) and B2 (a regional environmental world) vary between economic and environmental schemes (Nakicenovic et al., 2000).

Figure 3.5 Schematic illustrations of the four IPCC SREC climate change scenarios storylines (source: IPCC, DDC website)

The A2 and B2 climate change scenarios have been further explained and developed by the Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies (PRECIS)

Regional Climate Model (RCM). The A2 scenario describes a very heterogeneous world of high population growth, and slow regional economic development

(Cholaw, 2003; Cholaw et al, 2003). In contrast, the B2 scenario reflects a

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heterogeneous world with diverse technological change, low population growth, with relatively low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions move towards social and environmental sustainable development (Gaffin et al., 2004).

Both these scenarios (A2 and B2) have been used by researchers to predict

China’s regional long-term climate change projections, in terms of national annual temperature and precipitation (Hulme & Sheard, 1999; Xu et al., 2006a). Using the A2 and B2 climate scenarios, China’s climate projections are developed as in

Table 3.3. The temperature will increase by 1.4 ºC and 0.9 ºC in the 2020s under

A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. The warming trend will continue in the 2050s and 2080s, by 2.6 ºC (A2), 1.5 ºC (B2), and 3.9ºC (A2), 2.0ºC (B2), respectively.

Rainfall predictions under both A2 and B2 indicate an increasing trend in the coming century. The increasing rate of rainfall is as high as 12.9 per cent in A2, and 10.2 per cent in B2 in the 2080s.

Table 3.3 A2 and B2 Climate scenarios and CO2 concentration for China’s climate predication (source: Hulme & Sheard, 1999; Xu et al., 2006a)

Periods A2 (mid-high emissions) B2 (mid-low emissions)

Temperature Rainfall CO2 (ppm) Temperature Rainfall CO2 (ºC) (%) (ºC) (%) (ppm) Baseline (1961-1990) - - 376 - - 376

2020s (2011-2040) +1.4 +3.3 440 +0.9 +3.7 429

2050s (2041-2070) +2.6 +7.0 559 +1.5 +7.0 492

2080s (2071-2100) +3.9 +12.9 721 +2.0 +10.2 561

Furthermore, based on climate models developed by China’s National Climate

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Center of National Meteorological Center NCC (Ding et al, 2006a) and the

Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

(CAS) (Gao et al., 2001), there are corresponding but more detailed estimations of

China’s future climate change, compared with the results of the IPCC climate scenario models; these are shown in Table 3.4.

Table 3.4 The projection of temperature and precipitation of China by climate change models of NCC and IAP (compared by 30 years avarege 1961-1990)

Projected Climatic Changes 2020 2030 2050 2100

Surface temperature (ºC) +1.3 ~ 2.1 +1.5 ~ 2.8 +2.3 ~ 3.3 +3.9 ~ 6.0

Precipitation (%) +2 ~ 3 n/a +5 ~ 7 +11 ~ 17

Source: National Assessment Report of Climate Change (NARSS), China 2006.

In conclusion, both the projections of China’s future climate indicate a significant warming and increasing annual precipitation over China. For instance, the annual mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.5-2.8ºC by 2030,

2.3-3.3ºC by 2050 and 3.9-6.0ºC by 2100 (see Table 3.4). The largest warming will occur in winter and in northern China (including northeast China and northwest China) in the twenty-first century (NARSS, 2006).

Although there is a projected 10-12 per cent increase in annual precipitation over

China by 2100, this is predicted to be mostly experienced in the southeastern coastal regions (Ding et al., 2006b). China’s National Climate Change Program

(2006) states that the precipitation in North Central China, particularly in the middle stream of the Yellow River and Chinese Loess Plateau regions is expected to significantly decline in the next 50-100 years. A decline in precipitation will

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reduce access to safe drinking water and expand drought-affected areas in north

China (Ding et al., 2006b; Wang, 2006). It is predicted that the arid area in western China will become larger and the risk of desertification will subsequently magnify (Ren, 2007; Zhang & Wang, 2007).

3.2 Climate Chang Policy in China

3.2.1 UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and China

China’s climate change policy is determined by both international and domestic considerations. Heggelund (2007) argues that China’s stance in international negotiations is strongly influenced by foreign policy, where major issues are sovereignty, equity, and international image.

The UNFCCC is an international environmental treaty that was agreed upon at the

United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in 1992, and entered into force in 1994. The objective of the treaty is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system (UNFCCC 2005,

Article 2).

The UNFCCC sets an overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to tackle the challenges posed by climate change. It is outlined under the convention that party Governments should: (i) gather and share information on greenhouse gas emissions, national polices and best practices; (ii) launch national strategies for addressing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to expected impacts, including

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the provision of financial and technological support to developing countries; and

(iii) cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change.

The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol linked to the UNFCCC, which was initially adopted in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan and entered into force in 2005. The Kyoto

Protocol is considered to be a principle update of the UNFCCC, as it sets mandatory emission limits and enforcement mechanisms for individual countries.

By 2009, 191 countries had signed and ratified the protocol (Kyoto Protocol,

2009).

The major distinction between the Protocol and the Convention is that while the

Convention encouraged industrialized countries to stabilize their GHG emissions, the Protocol commits them to do so (Kyoto Protocol, 1997). Under the Protocol,

37 industrialized countries commit themselves to a reduction GHG gases produced by them by different levels, and all member countries give general commitments. The three mechanisms under Kyoto that help Parties meet their emission targets in a cost-effective way are: (i) emissions trading-known as ‘the carbon market’; (ii) clean development mechanism; and (iii) joint implementation.

China has participated actively in international climate change negotiations since the late 1980s. The Chinese Government ratified both the UNFCCC in 1994 and the Kyoto Protocol in 2002. The then Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji commented at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in September

2002 that China’s approval of the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC has manifested

China’s positive stance towards international environmental cooperation and

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world sustainable development.

In early 2004, China submitted ‘China’s Initial National Communication on

Climate Change’ to the UNFCCC Secretariat, as a non-Annex I4 developing country. In the communication, it listed China’s major greenhouse gases emissions targets, China’s vulnerability and adaptation assessment, as well as

China’s mitigation policies and actions as a developing country.

3.2.2 National climate policy for climate change

The Chinese Government attaches great significance to the issues of climate change through its institutional and policy framework. In 1990, the Chinese

Government set up the National Coordination Committee on Climate Change

(NCCCC), which was restructured in 1998. In 2003, the NCCCC became the

National Coordination Group on Climate Change Strategy (NCGCCS) and was organized by the State Council. In June 2007, the State Council formulated the establishment of its National Leading Group on Climate Change (NLGCC), based on the NCGCCS. The NLGCC is an inter-ministerial level committee, which consists of 27 Chinese central government agencies, and is led by the Premier.

The role of the NLGCC is to make decisions and to coordinate national actions on climate change (State Council, 2007). It also demonstrates the changes in the

4 Countries under Non-Annex 1 include Bangladesh, Belize, China, India, Egypt, Pakistan, Uruguay, Iran and Mexico. Most non-Annex I parties belonged in the low-income group, with very few classified as middle-income. Sustainable development priorities mentioned by non-Annex I parties include poverty alleviation and access to basic education and health care education (UNFCCC, 2005, p. 6). Many non-Annex I parties are making efforts to amend and update their environmental legislation to include global concerns such as climate change (UNFCCC, 2005, p. 7).

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Chinese Central Government’s stance on climate change issues and the priority now being placed on climate change (Qi et al., 2008). In addition, the establishment of NLGCC has considerably strengthened the Chinese Central

Government’s decision-making process as well as its international cooperation on climate change issues. Through the NLGCC, the Chinese Central Government empowered its relevant ministries and departments to establish a series of policies and frameworks to address climate change issues and facilitate certain processes of response to climate change (Yi, 2010). Table 3.5 is a list of China’s climate policy actions, policy documents and involved authorities.

Furthermore, the Chinese Government released ‘China National Climate Change

Program’ (CNCCP5) in June 2007, followed by its national White Paper of

‘China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change’ in 2008. The

CNCCP outlines key policies and measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change. This policy paper also outlines the impacts of climate change on China, and sets out a strategy to address climate change and sustainable development, including by way of mitigation actions that China envisages and has already adopted. More measures and policies on China’s mitigation and adaptation to climate change will be discussed in the following section.

5 In June 2007, China released its National Climate Change Programme outlining the challenges that China is facing in dealing with climate change. It outlines steps that China has taken towards sustainable development and plans that China will enact in the future to address climate change. Many of these policies are from the eleventh five-year plan, which runs from 2006 to 2011. Source: www.wri.org

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Table 3.5 China’s climate policy, actions, framework and authorities involved (Source: NDRC, 2009) Departments and Authorities involved Framework and Specific Actions Scientific The Ministry of Science In 2008-2010, the Second Assessment Report of National research and Technology (MOST), Climate Change China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Chinese Academy of Science (CAS) China Meteorological Chinese Climate and Environmental Change: 2012 Administration (CMA), Chinese Academy of Science (CAS). The Ministry of Science In 2008, circulated the National Special Action of and Technology (MOST) Response to Climate Change and organized the compilation of the National Strategy of Adaptation to Climate Change. 2010, Technology item on addressing climate change, such as Climate change and its impacts on grain production. 2010, Major national science research plan: Global Change Research. Ministry of Agriculture In 2010,’Climate Change and its Impacts on agricultural (MOA) Production and the Countermeasure Technology’.

Legislation The National People’s In 2000, Meteorology Law of People’s Republic of China. strengthen Congress (NPC), In 2007, The Law on response to Emergencies of People’s State Council (SC) Republic of China. In 2009, The Resolution of Standing Committee of People’s Republic of China on Positively Addressing Climate Change. In 2010, The Ordinance of Prevention of Meteorological Disasters.

Capacity Ministry of Commerce In 2009, ‘Developing Country Officials Seminar on Building (MOC), Addressing Climate Change’. National Population and In 2009, ‘Developing Country Global Officials Seminar Family Planning on Climate and Climate Change’ for officials and scholars Commission (NPFPC), from an African Country. China International Center In 2010 ‘Developing Country Officials Seminar on for Economic and Population and Climate Change’. Technical Exchange (CICETE),

Organization Central Government & Establishment of a decision-making coordination building Local Government mechanism of multi-agency participation; a great many local governments have established a department to address climate change.

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3.2.3 China’s actions on mitigation and adaptation

Climate change and mitigation

China’s greenhouse gas emissions have been increasing steadily, corresponding to its impressive growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP per capita over last three decades (Figure 3.6). During the 1990s, China’s greenhouse gas emissions increased by almost 40 per cent, mainly due to its strong economic growth (WRI, 2005). The International Energy Agency (2008) predicts that

China’s energy related GHG emissions would increase by 6,100 Metric Tonne

CO2 (MtCO2) from 2006 to 2030, which accounts for 15 per cent of the total projected global CO2 emissions (41,000 MtCO2) during the same period.

According to Statistics from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

(2008), China has been the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases since 2006, followed by the United Sates (Figure 3.7). In 2006 China’s total emissions reached 6,018 MtCO2, with the US reaching 5,903 MtCO2 in the same year.

However, on a per capita basis, China’s CO2 emission from fossil fuel combustion was 4.6 metric tons in 2006, compared to a level of 19.8 metric tons for the

United States.

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Figure 3.6 Economic development, population growth and CO2 emissions in China, 1971-2000 (source: WRI, 2005)

Figure 3.7 Total and per capita GHG emissions (in CO2 equivalent) of the top ten global CO2 emitters, 2006 (source: EIA, 2008)

It is argued that China’s large emissions are caused by its heavy reliance on fossil fuels, including coal, oil and natural gas, for electricity, heat and transport

(Heggelund, 2007). Coal is by far China’s most important fossil fuel; about 80 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions from energy sources are generated by the use of coal (EIA, 2008). Based on 2005 data, other major sources of China’s greenhouse

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gas emissions are agriculture (15 per cent), industrial processes (9 per cent), waste

(2 per cent) and others (1 per cent), shown in Figure 3.8.

Figure 3.8 Sources of China’s GHG emissions by sectors, 2005 (source: WRI, 2008)

The Chinese Government has recently implemented intensive measures and set ambitious targets to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and to mitigate the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on climate change (Wang & Watson, 2010). Based on China’s commitment in Copenhagen in 2009, China has announced its intention to reduce the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP in

2020 by 40 to 45 per cent from 2005 levels and use non-fossil fuels for around 15 per cent of its energy. Furthermore, China has also committed to increase its forested area by 40 million hectares and forest stock volume by 1.3 billion cubic meters, by 2020, based on levels in 2005. However, it is argued that ‘prospects for emission reduction are not realistic under the current policy environment, and

China is unlikely to take on commitments in the near future’ (Heggelund, 2007, p.155).

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Climate change and adaptation

The issue of climate change impact and adaptation was stressed in China’s official report ‘China’s Initial National Communication on Climate Change (2004)’.

Gemmer et al. (2011) argue that climate change adaptation, as a policy field, is a

‘late-comer’ in China, compared with climate change mitigation. Although stated in the National Communication, research on China’s climate change impacts and adaptation are still in the early stages (Heggelund, 2007). There is a growing emphasis on the need for adaptation activities to reduce the vulnerability and impacts of climate change in China. Many scholars and researchers assert that it is more realistic and urgent for China to adapt to the effects of climate change, rather than focus on mitigation, in its efforts to enhance food security and reduce vulnerability (Lin et al., 2005; Qin et al., 2005; Ding et al., 2007). Further actions and regulations are thus needed to introduce national adaptation strategies and policies to minimize the impacts of climate change in China.

A brief review of the proposed adaptation areas and objectives stated in the policy document of China’s National Climate Change Program (CNCCP) follow:

• Agriculture

Agriculture is one of the key sectors for adaptation to the adverse impacts of climate change in China’s National Climate Change Program (NDRC, 2007).

Major adaptation strategies proposed in the CNCCCP are to: (i) continue to improve agricultural infrastructures such as water-saving irrigation and drainage facilities and systems, field engineering, electromechanical equipment, etc.; (ii) promote the agricultural structure and cropping systems for improved agricultural

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productivity and climatic variability; and (iii) breed and promote crop varieties that are resistant to drought, waterlogging, high temperature, diseases and pests.

Furthermore, relevant regulation and policy will be formulated to facilitate the adaptation process of the agricultural sector to climate change (NDRC, 2007). For instance, since 2008 China has formulated the Regulation of the People’s

Republic of China on Drought Control, the Administrative Measures for the

Propagation and Releasing of Aquatic Organisms, and issued the Plan for the

Construction of the Protective Cultivation Projects (2009-2015).

• Forests

China’s National Climate Change Program (CNCCP) requires regulations to improve the capacity of forests to adapt to climate change. In particular, to enhance the effective protection of existing forest resources and maintain the conservation of natural forest ecosystems; and to develop technology for forest fire control and forest insect and disease control.

• Water resources

In terms of the adaptation strategy for water resources, the Chinese Government endeavors to improve integrated water resource management through sustainable water resource planning, allocation and management (NDRC, 2007). In addition, the Chinese Government has invested in enhancing the construction and improvement of key water control projects (e.g. reservoirs) and infrastructure in irrigation areas.

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In 2008, the government invested a total of 11.7 billion Renminbi (RMB) in major water resource and distribution projects, including the eastern line and the first phase of the middle line of the ‘South-North Water Diversion Project’ (NDRC,

2009). Furthermore, the technologies for water allocation, water-saving and seawater utilization will be additional options within an effective adaptation strategy to climate change for China’s water resource.

• Coastal zones and coastal regions

In China’s National Climate Change Program (CNCCP), a key objective is to establish an integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) system for the development and protection of coastal zones. Additionally, the national mechanism for strengthening technology research and development for the protection and restoration of the marine ecosystems, coral reefs and coastal wetlands, will be established to reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems in coastal zones.

In conclusion, it is argued that most of these adaptations under China’s current adaptation framework represent possible or potential adaptation measures, rather than measures that have actually been adopted. There is no evidence that these adaptation strategies or options are practical, viable, or even likely to occur in

China.

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3.3 Climate Change Impacts on China’s Agriculture

3.3.1 China’s agriculture

The agricultural sector is essential for sustainable development, particularly in developing countries (Mendelson et al., 1999). Agriculture in China is not only a fundamental component of the national economy, but also of international food security (Brown & Halwei, 1998; Parry et al., 1999; Rosegrant & Cline, 2003;

Xiong et al., 2007). According to national statistical data, the agricultural GDP reached about 5 trillion RMB (approximately USD0.8 trillion based on 2012 exchange rates), which made up 17 per cent of China’s national GDP in 2007

(Figure 3.9).

Figure 3.9 China’s GDP, Agricultural GDP and ratio of Agricultural GDP/GDP (Source: National Bureaus of Statistics of China, 1978-2007)

The agriculture sector in China feeds the 1.3 billion population, about approximately 22 per cent of the global population, using only 7 per cent of the world’s arable land (Tong et al., 2003). In 2003, China produced a total of 30 per

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cent of global rice, 15 per cent of global wheat and 17 per cent of global maize

(Winters & Yusef, 2007).

Over the past few decades, agriculture in China has faced significant challenges including increases in population and food demands; losses of arable land resource to development and degradation; increases in water scarcity; as well as climate change (Xiong et al., 2009a; 2009b). The vulnerability of agricultural production in China has been amplified by the pressure on natural resources (Smit

& Cai, 1996). Consequently, more attention has been given to understanding the impacts of future climatic variability on the agricultural sector, including the consideration of water, land and other socio-economic factors (Rosenzweig et al.,

1995; Fischer et al., 2002; Parry et al., 2001; Parry et al., 2004; Gregory et al.,

2005).

3.3.2 Crop production under different climate change scenarios

China has various geographical settings across regions, which results in differential spatial distribution and diverse patterns of crop production. Wang et al.

(2010) conclude that one crop a year and cropping rotations (e.g. maize-wheat and cotton-wheat) are commonly used in northeast and northwest China. While in some parts of south China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, three-crops per year is implemented. In tropical and subtropical areas of China

(mainly southern China), local farmers practice the double-rice cropping systems

(e.g. rice-rice, rice-wheat, and rice-others).

Wheat, maize and rice are considered to be the three principle crops in China, and

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together these accounted for 54 per cent of the total sown area and 89 per cent of national grain yields in 2007 (Piao et al., 2007). In general, north and northeastern China produce wheat, maize, soybeans and cotton. Rice is the main crop in southern and central China, with some other crops including oilseeds

(canola), vegetables and sugarcane.

Over the last few decades, various studies of the impacts of recent climatic trends and predicted future changes on agricultural production have been conducted in

China (Tao et al., 2008a; 2008b; Liu et al., 2009; Chavas et al., 2009; Xiong et al.,

2008; 2009; 2010). The findings from these studies have varied and depend on the crops being analyzed, the domains studied, and the model assumptions regarding climate change scenarios and CO2 fertilization effects.

The warming trend detected over the last several decades in China has had both potential positive and negative consequences for crop production. It is widely accepted that warming is harmful to rain-fed crops but beneficial to irrigated ones in many regions (Wang et al., 2009b). You et al. (2009) observed a 4.5 per cent reduction in wheat yield attributed to rising temperatures during the period 1979-

2000. It was also found that warmer daytime temperatures decreased the wheat yield by 6 to 20 per cent per degree (Tao et al., 2008). Maize yields also responded negatively to the rising day temperatures during 1979-2000 in the eight maize producing provinces in China (Tao et al., 2008).

By contrast, nighttime warming increased the rice yield by 4.5-14.6 per cent per degree in northeast China during the period 1951-2002 (Tao et al., 2008).

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Regional warming has extended the length of potential growing seasons for rice planting (Piao et al., 2006) with national agricultural statistic data indicating a significant northward (shift from ~ 48ºN to ~ 52ºN) expansion of rice planting in the Heilongjiang Province in northern China. Also the area planted with rice increased from 0.22 million hectares in early 1980s to 2.25 million hectares in

2007 (Tao et al., 2008).

Nevertheless, some other studies have also proven that the effects of climate change up until now have been dwarfed by the huge production gains and the success of the modernization of agriculture in China (Huang et al., 2007; Liu et al.,

2010; Wang et al., 2009b; Zhou et al., 2007). It has been found that rice, maize and wheat yield have increased by 90 per cent, 150 per cent, and 240 per cent, respectively, over the last four decades in China (Figure 3.10). However the concern now is how future crop production will be affected by climate change in

China, given the different climate change scenarios.

Figure 3.10 Changes of cereal yields (tones per hectare) during the period 1971-2007 in China (Source: China’s agricultural statistics, 1971-2007)

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A wide range of crop modeling assessments using future climate change scenarios

(including IPCC SRES A2 and B2, see Table 3.3) has been applied to estimate

China’s future crop production. The general consensus is that climate change itself will tend to decrease crop yields generally but that CO2 fertilization will tend to increase cereal production yields.

Assessments indicate that without the CO2 fertilization effect, China’s grain production will decline over the twenty-first century. The accredited study of

Xiong et al. (2008) demonstrates that there will be an overall yield reduction of 13 per cent in China’s crop production by 2050 (Table 3.6). The estimates of climate- induced yield reductions are from 4 to 14 per cent for rice, from 2 to 20 per cent for wheat and from 0 to 23 per cent for maize by the 2050s (Xiong et al., 2008).

Lin et al. (2005) proclaim that given the 3ºC to 4ºC projected average annual temperature increase by the end of the twenty-first century in China, rice, maize and wheat yields could be reduced by up to 37 per cent in the next 20-80 years, without considering the advanced CO2 fertilization effects. It has also been predicted that there is a probability that a one-degree rise in temperature will decrease the rice yield (Tao et al., 2008b). The decline in agricultural water availability under future climate change scenarios is also predicted to cause potentially large decreases in rice production (Wang et al., 2010).

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Table 3.6 Impacts of climate change on crop yields under various climate scenarios in China relative to 1961-1990 (Source: Xiong et al., 2008)

Rice Maize Wheat Scenarios Rain-fed Irrigated Rain-fed Irrigated Rain-fed Irrigated

6 A2 No CO2 2020s -12.9 -8.9 -10.3 -5.3 -18.5 -5.6 fertilization 2050s -13.6 -12.4 -22.8 -11.9 -20.4 -6.7 2080s -28.6 -16.8 -36.4 -14.4 -21.7 -8.9

With CO2 2020s 2.1 3.2 9.8 -0.6 15.4 13.3 fertilization 2050s 3.4 6.2 18.4 -2.2 20.0 25.1 2080s 4.3 7.8 20.3 -2.8 23.6 40.3

B2 No CO2 2020s -5.3 -1.1 -11.3 0.2 -10.2 -0.5 fertilization 2050s -8.5 -4.3 -14.5 -0.4 -11.4 -2.2 2080s -15.7 -12.4 -26.9 -3.8 -12.9 -8.4

With CO2 2020s 0.2 -0.4 1.1 -0.1 4.5 11 fertilization 2050s -0.9 -1.2 8.5 -1.3 6.6 14.2 2080s -2.5 -4.9 10.4 -2.2 12.7 25.5

Note: (1) The A2 scenario describes a very heterogeneous world of high population growth and slow regional economic development; (2) The B2 scenario reflects a heterogeneous world with diverse technological change, low population growth with relatively low GHG emissions more towards the social and environmental sustainable development.

Given the decreases in China’s agricultural production (Lin et al., 2005; Tao et al.,

2008b; Xiong et al. 2008; Wang et al., 2010), higher grain prices are expected in

China when CO2 fertilization effects are not considered (Wang et al., 2010).

Projected crop prices would in this case increase by a projected 10.9, 15.9 and

17.6 per cent for maize, wheat and rice, respectively by end of 2030s under the A2 scenario (Wang et al., 2009a).

However, with the CO2 fertilization effects accounted for in the analysis, there is

6 Xiong et al. (2008; 2009) argue that the IPCC SRES ‘B2 storyline’ fits more broadly than the ‘A2 family’ regarding China’s national environmental, social and economic development plans over the medium to long term.

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projected to be no adverse impact on China’s future food production by the estimated range of temperature rises of 0.9-3.9ºC (Xiong et al., 2007). From this perspective, Xiong et al. (2008) project an increased cereal production in China from 13 per cent (under B2) to 22 per cent (under A2) by 2050 compared to the

1961-1990 mean production. This projected increase in cereal production is expected mainly in the northeast, northwest and southeast provinces.

It is obvious from Table 3.6 that all three crop yields would benefit more from climate change under scenario A2 than under scenario B2 when CO2 fertilization effects are considered. Nevertheless, recent reviews (Parry et al., 2007; Kimball et al., 2002) conclude that a simulation of CO2 fertilization effects on crops is still within the gambit of experimental trials. The magnitude of this effect is still being debated and is therefore a source of great uncertainty (Baker, 2004; Bannayan et al., 2005; Ma et al., 2007; Ziska, 2008).

Changes in China’s crop production either at current levels or in the future would greatly challenge China’s capacity to feed its huge population and also have an impact on world food security. For instance, at a national level, it has been estimated that a fall of 7 per cent in crop production would mean a total reduction of almost 40 million metric tons of food grain in China, and 20 per cent of the global grain trade (Zhai et al., 2009). However, food security is not only affected by crop production, but also by changes in the population, the economy and the technological advances (Parry et al., 1999).

Xiong et al. (2007) have predicted China’s future food supply for the twenty-first

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century under the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios and this is illustrated in

Table 3.7. The data indicates that China’s future food supply would increase under A2 and B2 considering of CO2 fertilization effects, and also under B2 without CO2 fertilization. Under the A2 scenario, without considering CO2 fertilization, there would be an obvious decline for future food supply in China.

Although adverse impacts have been predicted under certain climate change scenarios, China’s future food supply still has the potential to increase through new technology and more investment (Xiong et al., 2007; Tao et al., 2009).

Table 3.7 China’s future food supply under climate change scenarios (source: Xiong et al., 2007)

8 Emission With or without CO2 Total food supply (10 metric tons) Scenarios fertilization effect 2020 2050 2080 A2 Without 5.24 5.32 5.00 With 6.24 6.92 7.04 B2 Without 5.53 5.77 5.73 With 5.80 6.08 5.74

The cereal supply per capita in China has also been estimated considering both climate change scenarios and socio-economic scenarios (Figure 3.11). This is predicted to drop from 366kg per capita per annum in 2000, to some 300kg per capita per annum by the end of 2080, mainly as a result of population growth

(Xiong et al., 2007).

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Figure 3.11 China’s cereal supply per capita changes during period 1978-2000 and future projections during 2000-2080 (Source: Xiong et al., 2007)

Note: the data from 1978-2000 are from China’s agricultural yearbook; the data from 2000- 2080 are projected by the climate change scenario A2 and B2; the ‘a’ means the simulation without CO2 direct effects, while ‘b’ means the simulation with CO2 direct effects.

3.3.3 Impacts of water scarcity on agriculture

Water shortages have been a major environmental and economic issue in China for more than a few decades (Smil, 1993; Kharin et al., 1999). In 1998, a statement made by Brown and Halweil drew attention to China’s water capacity for agriculture, along with its severe consequence on the world’s food security.

They asserted that an abrupt decline in the water supply to China’s farmers posed a rising threat to the world food market.

Threats to China’s food self-sufficiency would push up world grain prices, which would create significant social and political instabilities throughout the world

(Brown & Halwei, 1998). With a projected population of 1.4 billion in 2030 (Men,

2005), the availability of water to support international and Chinese agriculture under future climatic conditions will become a key concern.

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Water stress has already affected China’s crop production, particularly in the northern parts of the country (Li, 2006; Xiong et al., 210). This can be attributed mainly to declining precipitation rates, overuse of groundwater and inappropriate water management (Thomas, 2008).

China is facing a severe water crisis due to huge irrigation demands and limited water availability. Nearly 34 per cent of China’s farmland is irrigated (ECCWRB,

2008). Irrigated agriculture is the primary consumer of water, accounting for 68.8 per cent of total national water use but contributing more than 75 per cent to

China’s total grain production (Xiong et al., 2010). The percentage share of irrigation water use declined from 97 per cent in 1949 to 65 per cent in 2004

(Ministry of Water Resource, 2004). Geographically, the proportion of irrigated land ranges from more than 70 per cent in eastern China to only about 20 per cent in northeastern China (Figure 3.12).

Figure 3.12 Irrigation areas and percentage of irrigated cropping areas in China (Source: Siebert et al., 2005)

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There has only been limited research in China exploring water availability for agriculture that considers both the impact of future climate change scenarios and socio-economic development (Tao et al., 2003, 2011; Rosenzweig et al., 2004;

Yuan et al., 2005; Xiong et al., 2009a, 2010). Hydrological simulations by these studies demonstrate a moderate to large increase in both national internal water resources and total water availability, primarily in response to future precipitation increase. Xiong et al. (2009, 2010) estimate a 6.1-8.8 per cent and 18.6-19.8 per cent increase of national internal water resource (IWR) and total water availability

(TWA) respectively, under the climate change scenarios A2 and B2 by the 2040s.

A decreasing share of agricultural water is anticipated due to increased total national water demands and water competition from the industrial, domestic, environmental and municipal sectors (Xiong et al., 2010). Notwithstanding the predicted increased water supply, the counteracting rising demands from other sectors is expected to lead a decline in agricultural water in most provinces

(Xiong et al., 2010). Figure 3.13 displays projected changes of total water availability, water availability for agriculture, along with potential total cereal irrigation water requirement, incorporating changes due to climate change and

CO2 fertilization by the 2020s and the 2040s in China.

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Figure 3.13 Projected total water availability, water availability for agriculture and potential irrigation requirement from cereal crops (Source: Xiong et al., 2010)

Note: TWA = total water available; WWA = water available for agriculture; BS = baseline simulation between 1961-1990; middle column of each cluster indicates potential cereal water demand with consideration of CO2 fertilization effects; and the right one without this consideration.

Data from Figure 3.13 indicate a range of dramatic decreases of water availability for agriculture by 5 per cent (2020s) and 21 per cent (2040s) under A2, and by 3 per cent (2020s) and 16 per cent (2040s) under B2. Key projected cereal water demands under A2 in the 2020s and the 2040s even exceed availability of water for agriculture. Should these expected irrigation water resource problems from climatic change eventuate, they would threaten both the stability and adaptability of China’s food production system (Tao et al., 2011).

On the other hand, approximately 25 per cent of total food production in China comes from rain-fed agriculture, which is mainly distributed in the North China

Plain (Qian & Zhu, 2001; Tao et al., 2003). Table 3.6 ‘Impacts of climate change on crop yields under various climate scenarios in China relative to 1961-1990’

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shows that rain-fed crops would be much more severely affected by climate change than irrigated crops. Higher incidences of drought and rising temperature would make water shortages more serious and negatively affect crop yields in the regions of northern China (Wang et al., 2010).

3.3.4 Uncertainty of crop production

Climate change scenarios and models are limited by ‘incomplete’ knowledge and/or high uncertainty (Shackley et al., 1998; New & Hulme, 2000; Edwards,

2001; Batima et al., 2005). Reducing the wide range of uncertainty in the course of future climate change and impact projections still requires major advances in human understanding of the subject in the years to come (Mall et al., 2004).

Betts (2005) revealed that the interaction between climate change, crop production, land use policies, and water availability, have been largely disregarded until recently. It is very important to note that the above quantitative projections of China’s crop production under future climate scenarios have not included consideration of socio-economic scenarios and adaptation effects arising from community and individual farmer responses. Piao et al. (2010) argue that any assessment of the impact of climate change on crop production in China will be unreliable unless it incorporates scenarios of adaptation potentials.

It is widely accepted that improving adaptation to present day climate variability and reducing vulnerability is the best way to cope with an uncertain future climate

(Burton, 1997; Tol et al., 1998; Parry et al., 1998). They stated that adaptation strategies themselves, however, remain uncertain to some extent, considering the

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flexibility of agro-technology to respond, and differing access by farmers to resources.

Recent studies suggest that in the face of these two key limitations, the adverse effects of climate change on crop production might be overcome by an increase in the use of fertilizers (Huang et al., 2007); an expanded irrigation capacity (Wang et al., 2009c); by the introduction of new crop varieties (Zhou et al., 2007; Liu et al, 2009); and by the application of broad adaptive water allocation and land policies (Xiong et al., 2009b). The actual effects of these responses in agriculture will be explored more in the following section.

3.4 Responses in Agriculture to Climate Change in China

Adaptation to climate change is significant for China due to observed and projected vulnerabilities of its agricultural sector. China, therefore, needs to develop proper adaptation strategies not only to cope with climate change but also with the constraints of a huge agricultural population, shortages in natural resource, and inefficiency and malfunction in infrastructure (Yang et al., 2007).

Adaptation to climate change in China’s agricultural sector has only recently been widely addressed with the benchmark of ‘China’s National Climate Change

Program’7 in June 2007. Comprehending the significance of agriculture in its

7 In June 2007, China released its ‘National Climate Change Program’ outlining the challenges that China is facing in dealing with climate change. This framework policy outlines steps that China has taken towards sustainable development and plans that China will enact in the future to address climate change. Strategies include increasing research and development (R&D), improving energy efficiency and building construction, developing renewable and nuclear energy, increasing forest cover, improving industrial policy and agriculture, and improving institutions and policies. Source: http://en.ndrc.gov.cn

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national sustainable development plans, the Chinese state and local governments have implemented a number of strategies and activities to help its agricultural production to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change (Wang et al., 2010).

3.4.1 Adjusting the structure of farming systems

The adjustment of agricultural systems is considered to be one of the critical adaptation processes to climatic changes in China (OECD, 2005). The agricultural reform in China has been a major pillar of the fundamental economic reforms undertaken by the Chinese Government since 1978 (OECD, 2005). The introduction of the Household Production Responsibility System8 (HPRS), where households lease land from the government, has boosted farmers’ incentives to produce more efficiently (Yang et al., 2007).

In the early 1990s, China’s traditional dual structure of farming with grain crops and cash crops was transformed into a tripartite one that includes grain crops, feed crops and cash crops (Lin, 1996). As a result of this transformation process, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, northeast and southwest China, and northern China have gradually come to produce grain crops for the whole country. However, according to Lin’s (1996) critical evaluations conducted in the seven selected provinces around China, most of the farming areas listed above appear to be highly vulnerable to climatic variability.

8 Launched in the early 1980s, the ‘Household Production Responsibility System’ (HPRS) was a system, which allowed households to contract land, machinery and other facilities from collective organizations. Households could make operating decisions independently within the limits set by the contract agreement, and could freely dispose of surplus production over and above national and collective quotas. The HPRS was created by the peasants but spread nationwide with the support of the Central Government. More than 93 per cent of production teams had adopted the system by 1983. Source: www.china.org.cn

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Northeast China (39-53°N), including Liaoning Province, Jilin Province and Hei

Longjiang Province located from the southern part up to the northern part (see

Figure 3.14), is one of China’s coolest regions with long and cold winters and a short growth season for crops. This region provides a significant proportion of

China’s commercial food grain (wheat, rice and maize) and economic crops

(soybean, sugar beets).

Since the 1980s, northeast China has experienced the most obvious warming trend with an annual rise of mean temperature of 1.0-2.5°C (Ye, 1992). The annual precipitation in this region has decreased since 1965 (Liu et al., 2005). Under the influence of climate change, winter temperatures have been increasing with precipitation declining mainly in the summer (Zhai et al., 2003). It is estimated that northeast China will have a higher potential productivity with positive responses to projected climate change (Lin, 1996). The adaptive process of agricultural production in northeast China started when local farmers began to systematically plant winter wheat instead of spring wheat, and have trialed two crops per year rather than one since the 1980s (Yang et al., 2007). This change resulted in a northward movement of the winter wheat boundary.

Positive effects have been achieved from these adjustments, particularly where new winter wheat varieties with mid and late maturity have been widely adopted in this region (Hao et al., 2001). It is expected that winter wheat cropping will continue to expand northwards as a result of both the continuing winter warming and the strengthening of cultivation techniques in northeast China (Figure 3.14).

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Figure 3.14 Projected northwards expansion of the northern boundary of winter wheat farming areas in northeast China (Jin et al., 1998)

Meanwhile, with the recent temperature increases, the northern parts of northeast

China (mainly in Hei Longjiang Province) have become suitable for growing rice.

The rice planting areas have expanded significantly since the 1990s. The ratio of area of rice sown compared to area of other grains (including rice, wheat and maize) sown has increased from 5.5 per cent in 1978 to more than 30 perc cent in

1999 in Hei Longjiang Province (Wang et al., 2005). Over the last decade, policies to promote grain crop production along with the introduction of new rice varieties to northeast China have amplified the planting areas and rice yields

(Yang et al., 2007). Nevertheless water shortages and frequent droughts, especially in recent years, have resulted in further challenges for rice planting and expansion in this region (Wang et al., 2002).

The Yangtze River Basin covers a total area of 1.8 million square kilometres. In

2009 the basin contributed 41.1 per cent of the GDP and made up 35.4 per cent of

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crops (mainly rice, wheat and maize) within the national grain production

(National Statistic Bureau, 2010). The mean annual temperature within the Basin increased by 0.33°C during 1990s and 0.71°C during the period from 2001-2005

(World Wildlife Fund-WWF, 2009). The annual precipitation shows no significant changes; however, a rise in summer and winter precipitation has been detected (Ding et al., 2007).

It is also estimated that the spatial distribution of current water resources and runoff will alter due to future climate conditions and melting of the glaciers in the headwater regions of Yangtze River (WWF, 2009). Figure 3.15 indicates the present annual runoff distribution of the Yangtze River.

Figure 3.15 Spatial distribution of present average annual runoff in the Yangtze River Basin (Source: WWF, 2009)

Warmer temperatures and increases in rainfall will make farming more vulnerable in this region. It is estimated that rice production in the basin will decrease by 9-

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41 per cent, along with a higher decline in maize and winter wheat production by the end of the twenty-first century, due to future climate change without considering CO2 fertilization effects (WWF, 2009).

The ‘Yangtze River Basin Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Report’

(WWF, 2009) identifies further necessary farming adaptation strategies that should be considered and implemented to reduce the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change in the near future. The results from the model suggest that rice yield may possibly be relatively less ‘sensitive’ and vulnerable to climatic variability compared with maize and wheat in the Yangtze River region

(Yao et al., 2007; Xiong et al., 2005). Therefore there is potential to reduce the vulnerability of farming by replacing maize production with more rice production in the Basin.

It is also estimated by Xiong et al. (2009b) that single-rice cropping might expand further north in China and double-rice cropping might move to the northern portion of the Yangtze River Basin under the influence of anticipated climate changes around those regions. The WWF (2009) emphasizes the importance of boosting rice production in this region, by possibly adjusting single, double or even triple rice cropping systems in transition zones in order to take advantage of the potentially lengthened growing season and warmer days in the near future.

Arid and semi-arid northwest China (including the Loess Plateau region) is evidently vulnerable to droughts due to predicted rises in temperature and decreases in rainfall under the influence of climate change (Liu et al., 2005; Ding

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et al., 2006b). It is a fragile region that will most likely suffer decreases in grain yields where soil moisture decreases as temperature rises (Parry & Swaminathan,

1992). For most crops in northern China, coping with water shortage and declining irrigation water, from either surface-water or ground water,9 has become a vital challenge (Wang et al., 2009c). However many government agencies in this region still plan to expand irrigated agriculture, despite facing water shortages and a falling water table (Zhang et al., 2008b).

It is widely accepted that adjusting the current structure of the farming system and improving crop varieties would enhance both irrigated and rain-fed agricultural resilience to drought and water scarcity in arid and semi-arid northwest China

(Cai, 1997; Li et al., 2010). Introducing drought-resilient and water-saving crop species and varieties, to replace traditional crops that have high water consumption, is one strategy to improve water use efficiency and sustain productivity in this arid region (Liu et al., 2005; Deng et al., 2005; Thomas, 2008).

3.4.2 Land-use change in agriculture

Heilig (1997) argues land use change in China will be largely determined by anthropogenic factors including population increase, urbanization and industrialization, diet and lifestyle changes, as well as political and economic conditions. More recently, Liu et al. (2003) found that arable land is conspicuously driven by changes in production conditions, economic benefits, as

9 According to Wang et al. (2009c), ground water has become the dominant source of water for irrigation in northern China, with declining surface-water resources. In the early 1950s, ground-water irrigation was almost non-existent, but rose to 30% of total irrigation water in the 1970s and 58% in 1995. In 2004, most irrigation in northern China came from ground water resources.

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well as climatic conditions observed in most of China’s traditional agricultural zones. These observations confirm the broad conclusion by Bouma et al. (1998) and Krausmann et al. (2003) that land use change can be both a cause and effect of environmental or socio-economic factors.

Agriculture in China is considered to be both highly dependent upon, and susceptible to, climate change, largely because of arable land shortages and irrigation water deficits (Smit & Cai, 1996). Land scarcity may trigger increases in inappropriate cropping frequency, which will result in a ‘stressed’ farming system with declining output (Daily, 1995; English, 1998), as well as soil erosion and land degradation (Foley et al., 2005; Eswaran et al., 2001).

The loss of soil degrades arable land and eventually renders it unproductive and unsustainable (Pimentel et al., 1995). Soil erosion has been a serious problem in

China. Over the last few decades, more than 5 billion tonnes of topsoil has eroded across an area of 3.67 million square kilometres (Wang, 2004).

Land-use changes and activities are thus considered to alter the impacts of climate change through land management strategies (Tuner et al., 1993). On-farm land use change is one kind of adaptation to adverse impacts of climate change (Parry et al.,

1999; Mendelsohn & Dinar, 1999). It has also been found that humans will change land use and land management to adjust to climate change, which will also have some ecological effects on natural systems (Dale, 1997).

Since 1999, China’s government has pursued one of the most ambitious land

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retirement/reforestation programs in the world through the ‘Grain for Green’

Program (GFG).10 The program aims to improve agricultural land use efficiency and prevent soil erosion (Uchida et al., 2005). The GFG program is distinct from

China’s other land and water programs since it is one of the first to involve

‘payment for environmental services’11 (PES) in China (Bennett, 2008).

Prioritized program areas are upstream regions of major river systems in China, including the Yellow River, Yangtze River and other river basins, which have experienced massive ecological degradation and environmental stresses over the past 50 years (Zhang et al., 2000). Furthermore, the GFG program aims to alleviate poverty and increase the income of participant households to enable them to have a more sustainable structure of agricultural production (SFA, 2003).

As a result of the increased vegetation coverage brought about by this program, soil erosion has been largely reduced, with an overall forest coverage rate increase from 16.8 per cent in 1999 to 20 per cent in 2010. The building of level terraces has enhanced water infiltration, raised the rainfall utilization rate, raised land quality and crop yields, and conserved soil and water (Deng et al., 2000; Deng et al., 2005). For instance, the average yield of maize has increased from 3 tonnes per hectare on steep slope land to 6 tones per hectare on terraces, with a potato

10 The China ‘Grain for Green’ program is also known as China’s Sloping Land Conversation Program (SLCP) in some literature. 11 The ‘payment for environmental service’, or PES, is also known as ‘payment for ecosystem services’. PES schemes reward those whose lands provide these services, with subsidies or marker payments from those who benefit. Three key steps are required in the PES schemes: firstly, an assessment of the range of ecosystem services that flow from a particular area, and who they benefit; secondly, an estimate of the economic value of these benefits to the different groups of people; and thirdly, a policy, subsidy, or market to capture this value and reward landowners for conserving the source of the ecosystem service. Source: www.worldwildlife.org

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yield increase from 7.5 tonnes per hectare to 12 tonnes per hectare, in the areas of the Loess Plateau that have annual precipitation of approximately 500mm (Chen et al., 2003).

Although there is a level of observed success and achievement within the GFG program, there is still remaining uncertainty due to the complexity and magnitude of the program. There is still significant debate and uncertainty between the conservation effects and long-term food security consequences of this set-aside conservation program (Feng et al., 2005; Xu et al., 2006b). Uncertainty also remains post-program when farmers’ possible production behaviour, market prices of crops, and land use policies are taken into account (Cao et al., 2009).

Moreover, the retirement of fragile cropland into grassland with the promotion and development of animal farming by way of pen feeding in some program areas is creating rapid growth in animal farming and cropping system adjustments. This in turn is increasing the demand for maize and other feed grain crops leading to the exacerbation of existing water shortage issue (Zhang, 2001).

3.4.3 Infrastructure development and intensive management

China is a country characterized by water resource scarcity and an imbalance of precipitation in terms of distribution and timing. Over 80 per cent of rainfall are concentrated in the southeastern part of China, with less than 20 per cent distributed in the northern parts of the country (Deng et al., 2005). However, northern China has about 65 per cent of the total national arable land (Deng et al.,

2005). Developing water management innovations is critical to the agricultural

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adaptation process and sustainability; this may include water-saving irrigation and water storage to address the risk of water deficiencies, drought and changing seasonality of precipitation (Smit & Skinner, 2002).

About 50 per cent of the arable land in China is irrigated and produces the major part (80 per cent) of total national agricultural production (Wu, 2001; Yang et al.,

2003a). Rain-fed agriculture in arid and semi-arid areas in northern and northwest

China constitute almost 70-80 per cent of other cultivated land (Deng et al., 2006).

Irrigated areas in the dryland regions of northern China are unlikely to expand, and would only do so if crop yields can be improved by supplementary irrigation

(Bai & Dong, 2001). Therefore, without irrigation, food production and food supply in China faces great challenges in meeting the needs of such a huge population (Deng et al., 2006).

China’s irrigation water scarcity has been largely attributed to declining precipitation rates, overuse of groundwater, deteriorating irrigation structures, and inappropriate water management (Thomas, 2008). For instance, it is estimated that about half of the water is lost as leakage during transfer to farmers’ fields (Liu &

He, 1996). For that reason, increasing water use efficiency in irrigated cropping and promoting dryland farming, through water conservation and efficient use of rainfall, are fundamental to China’s agriculture as it adapts to water stress associated with climate change and the risk of farmers’ income loss through recurrent drought.

In China before late the 1990s, furrow and flood irrigation was used on 97 per

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cent of irrigated lands, with only 3 per cent being watered with sprinklers and drip systems (Jin & Young, 2001). During the twenty-first century, efforts have been centered on water-saving agriculture and water-saving irrigation technologies, including replacing flood irrigation with sprinkler and drip systems, lining canals and ditches, as well as replacing irrigation ditches with underground pipes (Geng et al., 2001; Kendy et al., 2004; Deng et al., 2006). Micro-sprinklers and drip irrigation can achieve more than 95 per cent water efficiency, compared to flood irrigation efficiencies of only 60 per cent or less (Liu & Cheng, 1996; Vickers,

2001).

Low-cost drip systems have begun to spread rapidly around the world, and have even more potential for extension in China (Postel et al., 2001). Drip irrigation under a surface layer of plastic mulch has been used as an effective way to protect against soil evaporation and improve water use efficiency for irrigated cotton in

China (Zhang & Cai, 2001). New irrigation techniques have also been tested on peach and apple orchards in northern China by using a drip irrigation system

(Gong et al., 2001). In the northern part of China, the yield and water use efficiency (WUE) of winter wheat under sprinkler irrigation has increased by 28 per cent and 48 per cent, respectively, with more than 636 cubic metres of water saved per hectare compared with border irrigation (Liu et al., 2003).

In a large area of China’s arid and semi-arid regions, where the mean annual rainfall is below 300mm and there are also limited surface and/or groundwater resources available, rain-fed farming is the most widespread land use practice (Li et al., 2000a). To some extent, drought-resilient agriculture on rain dependent land

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requires more efficient use of natural rainfall (Deng et al., 2006; Shan, 2002). This is being applied in a strategy known as ‘water-soil conserving farming (WSCF)’ in China (Lu & Zhao, 1991; Shan, 1998). The key practices being implemented in arid regions of China since the late 1990s include: (i) increasing soil and runoff water storage by converting hillsides and slope land into level terraces; (ii) reducing surface evaporation by applying mulches; and (iii) collecting rainfall for supplemental irrigation to lessen the pressure arising from water deficits.

It is accepted that terraced land with improved rainwater storage and soil nutrients plays a significant role in increasing rain-fed land productivity and farming sustainability in most parts of China’s dry regions (Deng et al., 2000). The mulching technologies, including crop residue mulching, straw mulching and plastic film mulching, are now widespread. In northern China it has been found that mulching using crop residues improves water efficiency by 10-20 per cent through reduced soil evaporation, increased plant transpiration and increased soil water retention (Feng, 1999; Zhang et al, 2002; Zhao et al., 1996). Plastic film mulching not only mulches the soil surface, but also promotes crop growth during early growing stages when temperatures are low (Deng et al, 2006). The study conducted by Wang et al. (2004) found that grain yield in mulched plots was 28.9 per cent higher than in the corresponding plots that were not mulched.

Rainwater harvesting is another innovative method to capture and store runoff water during heavy rainstorms in China’s arid and semi-arid areas, where surface and groundwater resources are scarce. The practice was first implemented in

Gansu Province in northwest China in the 1990s (Li et al., 2000a). The initial

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purpose of the rainwater harvesting was to provide a solution for domestic water resources and irrigation water. The provincial government provided materials to build concrete collection surfaces of approximately 100m2, two concrete storage wells, and 0.06 hectare of terraced land for each pilot household. By the end of

1995, the rainwater-harvesting program had successfully solved the drinking water problem for 1.3 million people and their 1.2 million livestock in Gansu province (Deng et al, 2006).

The success of rainwater harvesting has been introduced to other provinces, including Ningxia, Shanxi, Shannxi, Inner Mongolia, as well as some central parts of China (Yang, 1998). The rainwater was also collected to use as supplementary irrigation source for individual household’s agricultural production, orchards and vegetable production. For instance, a water cistern with a capacity of 50m3 can provide supplementary irrigation water for 0.13 hectare of farmland and ensure a yield of over 4.5 tones per hectare (Deng et al., 2006).

3.4.4 Agricultural insurance

Smit and Skinner (2002) have demonstrated that the insurance of crops, farming production, agricultural infrastructure, and income, is one option for the agricultural sector to consider in adapting to climate change. The insurance sector is considered to be a market player able to play a material role in decreasing society’s financial vulnerability to climate-related natural disasters and extreme events (Mills, 2007). Market oriented insurance instruments have significant financial capacity and have the ability to reduce loss and to manage the spread of risks associated with weather-related events (World Bank, 2002; Mills, 2007).

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Nevertheless, the insurance industry did not regard climate change as a significant issue even at the beginning of twenty-first century (Dlugolecki, 2000). It wasn’t until very recently that one of the world’s largest insurer, American International

Group (AIG), expressed its great concern about anthropogenic climate change

(AIG, 2005). The US National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) also formed an Executive Task Force to respond to climate change and global warming (NAIC, 2006). Furthermore, ‘the utilization of a market-based insurance to address climate risks will require the development of partnerships between public, private and community actors’ (Agrawal, 2008, p.22).

The Chinese agricultural insurance program has a long history of providing protection to farmers that grow crops under difficult environmental conditions, but has developed only slowly up until early in the twenty-first century (Ye &

Vergara, 2009). The China Agricultural Insurance Company Limited was initially established in the early 1940s to provide agricultural insurance to a few provinces.

The agricultural insurance gross premiums remained flat and the insurance market for agriculture was under-developed until more recent years (CIRC, 2010). Ye and Vergara (2009) also explain that the lack of a suitable crop insurance program, less education and information about crop insurance instruments, lack of policy and regulatory support, were attributed as key factors in explaining farmers’ low participation in crop insurance.

In 2004, the Central Committee of Communist Party of China (CPC) and the State

Council highlighted in a report entitled Opinions on some policies to increase farmers’ income: ‘…to accelerate the establishment of policy mechanism of

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agricultural insurance, and to choose products and regions for pilot projects.

Qualified places may be provided with a certain premium subsidy for farmers who purchase planting and livestock breeding insurance…’

In 2007, the introduction of a new Multi-Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI) agricultural insurance premium subsidy program for six provinces, which increased the subsidy rate by 200 per cent by the Chinese Government, acted as a great incentive for farmers’ participation in the crop insurance (Ye et al., 2009). In the same year, the agricultural insurance premium and reimbursement of agricultural insurance reached about 780 million US dollars (USD) and 438 million USD, respectively.12

The area of rice and other major agricultural products covered by the policy of agricultural insurance reached 44 million hectares, occupying 30 per cent of the national sown area in 2007 (CIRC, 2010). With the support of premium subsidies from China’s central and provincial government, the Chinese agricultural insurance market grew dramatically to become the world’s second-largest market after the US in 200813.

Agricultural insurance was initially advocated as a direct way to assist small-scale farmers who confronted production risks three decades ago, mainly in western countries (Hazell et al., 1986). Article 4.8, of the UNFCCC calls upon Parties to the Convention to consider actions, including insurance, to meet the specific

12 Data source: China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC), www.circ.gov.cn 13 The agricultural insurance gross premiums were USD1.63 billion in China, and USD9.85 billion in the US in 2008. Source: USDA, and China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC).

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needs and concerns of developing countries to the adverse impacts of climate change (UN, 1992). Insurance and alternative risk-transfer instruments, providing disaster safety nets for the most vulnerable, are thus considered to be an adaptation strategy to the consequences of climate change.

The agricultural industry needs insurance to be protected from risks and unexpected adverse climates (Yang et al., 2007). However, the poor, particularly those in developing countries, lack access to financial resources to pay for insurance. Additionally, the poor are more vulnerable than the rich, living in more hazardous places, and having less protection and less insurance (Burton et al.,

1993). Instead of insurance, the poor rely on support from family and governments, which is not always available for disasters and extreme events that affect whole regions or countries (Linnerooth-Bayer & Mechler, 2006).

3.5 Chapter Summary Climate change is evident in China. An increasing trend (+0.5-0.8 ºC) of mean surface air temperature was detected over the past 100 years, which was most prominent in winter and autumn. The warming trend has emerged mainly in north

China, northeast China, northwest China and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. There were little systematic changes of the mean annual precipitation, amounting to only

2 per cent (about 2.9mm per decade) but increasing over the period of 1956 to

2002 in China. Though precipitation in China as a whole increased during that period, there are obvious differences across regions as well as decadal variability.

For example, the total amount of annual precipitation decreased in the north China

Plain (including the Loess Plateau) and north central China, but increased in the

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northeast, northwest, east, southeast China. In addition, glaciers are continuing to melt and the seal level is rising. The scenarios for China’s future climate change predict a significant warming trend continuing and an increasing annual precipitation trend over most regions. However, there is also a projection that north China (including the Loess Plateau) will become drier as a significant decline of precipitation is expected over the next 50-100 years.

The Chinese Government thus must take actions in response to the inevitable climate change. The National Coordination Committee on Climate Change

(NCCCC) was set up to make decisions and to coordinate national actions on climate change in 1990. More recently, the Chinese Government released the

‘China National Climate Change Program’ (CNCCP) and its national White Paper

‘China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change’. The documents outline key policies and measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change as well as a national strategy to address climate change and sustainable development.

However, the effectiveness of these national policies on climate change impacts and adaptation strategies, particularly at a national policy level, remain unclear due to limited evaluation and assessment.

Agriculture in China is imperative to the national economy, but also to the international food markets. In the past few decades, the Chinese agricultural sector has faced significant challenges, including increases in population and food demands; losses and degradation of arable land; increasing scarcity and competition for water; as well as climate change. It is therefore important to understand the impacts of recent climatic trends and predicted future changes on

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agricultural production. The studies on the impacts of climate change reveal that, for example, warming is harmful to rain-fed crops but beneficial to irrigated ones in many regions in China; the higher incidence of drought and rising temperatures would make water shortages more serious and negatively affect crop yields in regions such as Northern China; and uncertain climatic variability, associated with possibilities of land use policies, water availability and adaptation potentials result in high uncertainty of crop production.

Adaptation to climate change is important for China given the observed and projected vulnerabilities and adverse impacts. The Chinese state and local governments have implemented a number of strategies and activities to help its agricultural production to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change. Many publications on the effects of these practical adaptation measures in agriculture, including adjusting farming structure, land use change, farming infrastructure and management, and agriculture insurance, are reviewed and analyzed.

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CHAPTER FOUR: NATURAL RESOURCE

MANAGEMENT ON CHINA’S LOESS PLATEAU

4.1 The Loess Plateau: the fragile natural resource system

The Loess Plateau in western China demonstrates the tragedy of consistent long- term unsustainable use and overexploitation of natural resources on the ecosystem.

Since the early 1900s, massive deforestation, soil erosion, and dramatic loss of biological diversity have been witnessed in the area (COSTLOP-CAS, 1991; Fu

& Gulinck, 1994; Jiang, 1997; Liu, 1999; Fu & Chen, 2000; Jiang et al., 2003;

Wei et al., 2006b; Chen et al., 2007).

As a result of human activities, the Plateau was eventually converted from a rich agricultural production area and area rich in biodiversity into an impoverished and degraded fragile system. Climatic variations of temperature, rainfall and extreme climatic events, being noticed and detected mainly in last few decades, further contribute to the vulnerability of the environmental and social systems on the

Loess Plateau.

In order to have a well-rounded perspective of the Loess Plateau, this section introduces the key attributes, including geographical and socio-economic factors, and the climate variations of the current fragile ecosystem of the Plateau.

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4.1.1 Attributes of the natural resource systems on the Plateau

Natural resource systems

The Loess Plateau is one of China’s most important traditional agricultural production regions. It is located in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow

River (33°43’ to 41°16’N and 100°54’ to 114°33’ E) in northwest China (Figure

4.1a). The whole Plateau covers a vast area (ca 640,000 km2), contains parts of seven provinces/regions including Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shanxi, Shaanxi and

Henan, and is approximately 6 per cent of the national territory (NDRC et al.,

2010). It has a population of 108 million people, with 73 million (about 68 per cent) having become reliant on the agricultural sector from the end of 2008

(NDRC et al., 2010).

Figure 4.1 Geographical locations of the Loess Plateau (a) and loess depth and distribution (b), China (Based on IWMI & YRCC, 2003)

In the early Pleistocene, the Loess Plateau was a high flat plain covered by a thick layer of rich soils, densely vegetated with forest and grass (Richthofen, 1877; Liu,

1985; Shi et al., 1985; Shi, 2001). Currently, however, more than 70 per cent of the Plateau is covered in deep gullies that cut through the hills. This was caused by serious on-going soil erosion that began about 3000 years ago as the

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population grew (He et al., 2004). This high plateau (1000m to 1600m above sea level), is now covered by a thick layer of loess (wind-deposited silt), with an average thickness of 100m (Figure 4.1b; Figure 4.2). The loess originates from the northwest Gobi desert14 and was transported by wind to the Loess Plateau where it has accumulated since the beginning of the Quaternary (approx. 2.6 million years ago) (Liu, 1985; Zhu, 1989).

Figure 4.2 Typical gullies and ‘Yuan’ (wide areas on top of deep slopes) before vegetation rehabilitation in northern part of the Loess Plateau (Source: http://www.eku.cc)

The Loess Plateau has a very high level of soil erosion, with an average of 1.6 billion tonnes (about 3,720 tonne/km2/year) of soil eroded and lost each year, which is equivalent to a soil surface lowering of 1 cm per year (Shen et al., 2003;

Li et al., 2002). This is about 14 times that of the Yangtze River region of China,

38 times that of the Mississippi River region of the US, and 49 times that of the

Nile River region of Egypt (Liu, 1999). Around 70 per cent of the plateau area is

14 The Gobi desert is the fifth largest desert in the world, which covers 1.3 million square kilometers. The desert basins of the Gobi are bounded by the Altai Mountains and the grasslands and steppes of Mongolia in the north. The Gobi desert is expanding through the process of desertification into China’s grassland, including Hexi Corridor and Tibetan Plateau to the southwest and the North China Plain to the southeast. Source: www.gobidesert.org

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affected by soil erosion, with around 40 per cent being severely impacted (Chen, et al., 2007). More than 90 per cent of the sediment eroded from the plateau has been deposited into the Yellow River, the lower reaches of which have been rising at an annual rate of 8-10cm due to sedimentation (Shi & Shao, 2000). It is thus essential to identify the primary factors causing the severe soil erosion to ensure a systematic understanding of the vulnerable natural resource systems on the

Plateau.

Key contributors of long-term natural resources deterioration

Over the past thousands of years, population expansion, land exploitation, high- impact farming and other human activities have had detrimental effects on the natural environment and the sustainability of the environment of the Loess Plateau

(Liu, 1999; Jiang et al., 2003; Wei et al., 2006a; Chen et al., 2007). The collapsed environment in the Loess Plateau area is not only symptomatic of natural resources deterioration, but also has had serious impacts on agricultural productivity and created significant poverty.

Many studies indicate that the failures of environmental regeneration and restoration on the Loess Plateau have been induced by long-term irrational land use, poor water resource management, as well as degraded vegetation coverage, due to a large extent to population expansion (Fu & Gulinck, 1994; Jiang 1997;

Wang & Takahashi, 1999; Kimura et al., 2005, 2006; Wei et al, 2006b; Ren et al.,

2011).

Figure 4.3 illustrates that increased demands for both food and water,

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corresponding with population growth, has driven the unsustainable use and management of natural resources which has destroyed land productivity and consequently reduced food production.

Population Growth

Increased water use for drinking, Increased food demand agricultural and industrial sectors Intensive land use Water scarcity Destroyed vegetation and Reduced water for agriculture deforestation and poor water management Land and soil erosion Reduced land productivity and food production

Reduced farmers’ income More aggressive land & poverty cultivation and deforestation

Severe vegetation degradation

Accelerated land and soil erosion

Collapsed ecosystem Ecosystem system responses and/or Human activities and/or their consequences impacts from human activities Impact on Feedback to

Figure 4.3 The long-term overuse of natural resources and ecosystem deterioration in the Loess Plateau China (Note: the flow chart is developed by the author based on the work of Fu and Gulinck, 1994; Jiang 1997; Liu, 1999; Wang and Takahashi, 1999; Jiang et al., 2003; Kimura et al., 2005, 2006; Wei et al, 2006b; Chen et al., 2007; Ren et al., 2011)

The reduced land productivity has further triggered more aggressive land cultivation and deforestation only to ensure sufficient food and income from the land. Eventually, it turned out to be a long-term cycle of ecosystem deterioration -

‘population growth-increased food demands-overloaded natural resource systems’

- on the Loess Plateau. Poor management of natural resources eventually turned

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the whole plateau from a rich agricultural, environmental and social system into an impoverished, degraded and fragile one.

a. Population growth and environmental degradation

The natural resource system of the Loess Plateau degraded gradually, in conjunction with population growth, over a long period of time. Many thousands of years ago the Loess Plateau was a bio-diverse area with wide ‘Yuan’ (large flat surfaces) and gullies covered in flourishing forests and lush grasslands (Shi, 1988;

2001; Shi & Shao, 2000; Chen et al., 2001; Xu et al., 2004; He et al., 2006).

Evidence from numerous items of ancient literature and relic remains show that an extensive forest and forest-steppe covered the Loess Plateau thousands of years ago (Zhou, 1982; Zhu, 1983, 1994; Shi, 1991; Zhu, 1999).

However, forests, shrubs and grasslands on the plateau decreased gradually as the population increased. It is recorded that the total population of the Loess Plateau was only 8 million during the Qin and Han dynasty about 2000 years ago. It then increased sharply to 36.4 million by 1949, 81 million in 1985 and reached 108 million by 2008 (Jiang 1997; NDRC et al., 2010). Therefore, pressure on the environment of the Loess Plateau intensified as the population rapidly increased.

To meet demand for food, large areas covered by native vegetation were converted to arable land, and cultivation on steep slopes was increased on the plateau (Li et al., 2002). As a result, vegetation was destroyed and forests have disappeared. The forest coverage of the plateau reduced from more than 50 per cent 2000 years ago to 33 per cent 1500 years ago, 15 per cent 400 years ago, 6.1

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per cent by 1949 to almost nothing at the present time (Shi, 2001; Lu et al., 2003).

Both deforestation and intensive cultivation on the plateau ultimately resulted in severe land degradation and soil erosion (Zhang & Shao, 2001; Chen et al. 2007).

Over time, accelerated soil erosion by human activities has led to widespread environmental degradation on the plateau.

b. Unsustainable use of natural resources

Severe soil erosion, brought about by the unsustainable use and management of natural resources, has significantly contributed to ecosystem degradation and environmental vulnerability on the plateau. The Loess Plateau has been recognized for its fertility for a long time and has been an early and long-lasting center of cultivation in China’s history (Catt, 2001; Liu & Ding, 2004; Wang et al.,

2010).

However, over more recent centuries, aggressive land cultivation even on sloping lands, deforestation, soil loss, as well as adverse climatic conditions, have contributed to increased environmental degradation (Fu, 1989; Ash & Edmonds,

1998; Shi & Shao, 2000; Yang & Li, 2000). The long-term environmental degradation processes eventually led to the progressive inability of vegetation to regenerate, and a downward trend in land and crop productivity on the plateau

(Huang et al., 2006).

4.1.2 Climate variations of the Loess Plateau

The Loess Plateau is highly vulnerable to significant climatic variations. It is a dry broad region, stretching from a semi-arid zone to an arid zone in western China.

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The Plateau belongs to the continental monsoon region; with the rise in topography from the southeast to the northwest of the plateau, the area is less influenced by the southeast monsoon, and there is a clear transition from a sub- humid to a semi-arid climate (Chen 1998, Gan et al. 2008).

Temperature and rainfall on the plateau are spatially highly variable. The annual average temperature is about 14.3°C in the southeast and 4.3°C in the northwest

(Xin et al., 2011). The average annual precipitation is about 500mm, ranging from an average of 200mm in the northwest to 700mm in the southeast (Wei et al.,

2006a). Intensive heavy rainfalls that occur most frequently during the summer months (mainly June to September) contribute to the severe soil erosion on the plateau (Li et al., 2002; Zhang & Liu, 2005). The mean annual evaporation of

900mm is much higher than the annual precipitation (Wang et al., 2001).

There have also been significant variations in temporal annual precipitation, annual temperature, and extreme events detected at the meteorological stations of the Loess Plateau over the last 50 years. The total annual precipitation (Xu &

Zhang, 2006; Liu et al., 2008; Li et al., 2010) has decreased significantly while the mean annual temperature (Xu & Sui, 2005; Li et al., 2010) and pan evaporation (Qiu et al., 2003) have increased over the past 50 years. Extreme droughts have been more frequent over the last 50 years (Xu & Zhang, 2006).

More detailed data of these climate variations on the Plateau are reviewed and represented as following.

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Temperature variations on the Loess Plateau

Over the last 50 years, the major trend on the Loess Plateau is one of temperature increase. The average annual temperature increased by 0.3°C per decade during the period of 1961-2005 on the Plateau (Wang, 2009; Yao et al., 2010). There has been a significant variation of the mean annual temperature over the past 50 years, with a temperature anomaly15 fluctuating from – 1.1 °C to + 1.5°C. However, an abrupt increase in temperature occurred in the middle of the 1980s (Figure 4.4 and Figure 4.5). From the 1990s, the annual temperature showed an obvious increasing trend with the temperature anomaly varying from 0°C to 1.5°C.

Figure 4.4 The trend of mean annual temperature on the Loess Plateau in China from 1958-2008 (Source: Wang, 2009)

15 The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value. (Source: National Climatic Data Center of US Department of Commerce)

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Figure 4.5 Annual temperature anomalies on the Loess Plateau in China from 1958-2008 (Source: Wang, 2009)

Precipitation variations and dry periods on the Loess Plateau

Annual rainfall on the Loess Plateau has had large fluctuations, but with a decreasing trend over the past 50 years (Xin et al., 2011; see Table 4.2 and Figure

4.6). The historical climatic data clearly show that the annual rainfall was significantly higher during the 1960s than other decades. It then decreased but with fluctuations during the 1970s and 1980s.

Table 4.2 Variations of annual rainfall on the Loess Plateau, China from 1956 to 2008 (Based on Xin et al., 2001) Decade Annual rainfall (mm) 1960s 468.8 1970s 442.6 1980s 430.3 1990s 411.7

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Figure 4.6 The trend of annual rainfall on the Loess Plateau, China from 1956 to 2008 (Source: Xin et al., 2011)

The decreased rainfall corresponded to a detected dry period on the plateau that continued from the mid-1980s (Xin et al, 2005; Xu & Zhang, 2006; Liu et al.,

2008). The drying tendency is obviously significant when comparing the average annual rainfall from 1980 to 2000 (about 420mm) with that from 1956 to 1979

(about 455mm).

Human activities, therefore, associated with all these climatic variations detected on the Plateau have had a vital adverse effect on the whole ecosystem. It is thus necessary to examine the significant consequences of the long-term overuse of natural resources, with pressure from the climatic variations on the Plateau

(Section 4.2), before we move to discuss environmental rehabilitation and conservation measures that have been applied on the Plateau (Section 4.3).

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4.1.3 Future climatic trends and impacts

Climate change may have great impacts on the fragile ecosystem of the Loess

Plateau of China. China’s National Climate Change Program (NDRC, 2007) indicates that a significant decline in precipitation and a warmer surface temperature are expected in the Loess Plateau in the next 50-100 years. Another site-specific climate change study by Li et al. (2011) projects a -2.6 to 17.4 per cent change for precipitation, and 0.6 to 2.6 °C and 0.6 to 1.7 °C rises for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, during 2010-2039 on the

Loess Plateau.

In recent decades, both ecological and agricultural systems on the Loess Plateau have undergone some changes, mainly due to climatic variations. Some studies also revealed that climate change played an important role in the variation of agriculture and soil erosion (Wang & Liu, 2003; Mu et al., 2007; Li et al., 2009).

For example, crops can now be grown at higher latitudes and altitudes due to warmer temperature and warmer winters, but crop diseases and pests have become more common on the Plateau (Wang & Liu, 2003). The observed rainfall reduction, particular the disappearing spring rainfall, has largely offset the increased crop yields gained by terracing and other farming technology (Mu et al.,

2007).

Therefore, future unfavourable projections in climate-change related rainfall and temperature patterns would be more likely to adversely affect crop yields and hence farmers’ income. This is despite the great effects of local communities and policy support from central and local governments to cope with drought and

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unfavourable climatic disturbances on the arid plateau.

To achieve sustainable agriculture and reduce farmers’ vulnerability of climate change, further investment and support are likely to be required to cope with limited and unreliable availability of natural resources and to increase local communities’ adaptive capacity to climate change. More details on local community and farmers’ adaptation practice to the changing climatic conditions is further examined through the field study in Huachi County, the results of which are outlined in Chapter 5.

4.2 Consequence of Long-term Overuse of Natural Resources

The fragile natural resource system of the Loess Plateau is highly vulnerable as a consequence of long-term intensive human activities, as well as climatic variations. Furthermore, poor natural resource management on the plateau has resulted in not only environmental degradation but also socio-economic vulnerability. Due to the long-term overuse of natural resources, particularly land and water resources, the social-ecological system of the plateau has been degraded in terms of severe soil erosion, lower crop yields, and heightened vulnerability of farmers to poverty (Li et al., 2011).

4.2.1 Soil erosion

Soil erosion on the Loess Plateau has seriously degraded the environment and depleted land productivity. The erosion has affected more than 70 per cent of the whole plateau (Chen et al., 2007), with an average soil loss of 3,720 tonnes

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km2/year, and ranging up to 20,000 tonnes km2/year (Liu, 1999). The maximal soil erosion can be over 20,000 tones km2/year (Table 4.4).

Table 4.4 Soil erosion intensity on the Loess Plateau (Source: Liu et al., 2004) Erosion intensity Erosion modulus Erosion area % of total area (tonnes km2/year) (104 km2) Very slight 500 28.49 45.67 Slight 500-1,000 4.73 7.58 Moderate 1,000-5,000 12.52 20.07 Severe 5000-10,000 9.00 14.43 Very severe 10,000-20,000 6.60 10.58 Extreme > 20,000 1.03 1.65

Various degrees of soil erosion occur as a consequence of intensive rainfall, unsustainable land use, as well as the presence of deep, loosely deposited soil without vegetation coverage (Hessel et al., 2003; Li et al., 2003).

Erosion on the plateau is considered to be the result of the interaction between erosion forces and anti-erosion forces. Rainfall, the main erosion force, is affected by rainfall intensity, variation and duration (Shi & Shao, 2000). Intensified rainfall mainly happens during summer rainstorms on the Plateau which have amplified erosion forces.

On the other hand, erosion is easily prevented by appropriate vegetation and ground cover (US Department of Agriculture, 1978). The very poor vegetation cover on the Plateau has largely undermined the natural anti-erosion forces.

Ultimately, the long-term accelerated soil losses and erosion have led to the formation of deep gullies and steep slopes.

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Soil erosion, hydrology and runoff

Hydrological conditions (such as runoff, soil water and evapotranspiration) of an environmental system are influenced by many factors, but mainly by land use and climate variability (Li et al., 2009). For instance, land use change can affect flood frequency (Brath et al., 2006), base flow (Wang et al., 2006), and annual mean discharge (Costa et al., 2003) within a catchment or river basin.

Climate variability, such as rainfall pattern, can change the flow routing time, peak-flows and volume (Changnon & Demissie, 1996; Prowse et al., 2006). Many studies have also found that changes in vegetation cover, altered land use patterns, soil erosion conditions, as well as climate variation, have resulted in changes in surface hydrology on the Loess Plateau (Hessel et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2003;

Huang & Zhang, 2004; Mu et al., 2007).

Runoff is the main driver of soil erosion as well as the principle means of sediment transport (Shi and Shao, 2000). The plateau is situated in a semi-arid and arid climate belt that has high rainfall variability with periods of high intensity storms. Most soil erosion occurs as a result of rainstorms that prevail mainly in the summer period from June to September on the Plateau. As the concentration of the precipitation (about 60-70 per cent) is in the summer, for example, one storm event could contribute to about 60 per cent of the annual erosion (see Table

4.5).

Therefore, it is important to reduce soil erosion by controlling surface runoff.

One of the possible ways to reduce the intensified runoff on the Plateau is to

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change the vegetation coverage by increasing the areas of trees, shrubs and grasses (Chen et al., 2011).

Table 4.5 Some example of soil losses in one particular storm event detected by different sites on the Loess Plateau (Source: Liu, 1999)

Runoff Erosion

Sites on Rainfall Duration m3/km2 % of annually t/km2 % of annually Plateau (mm) (hours) total total Shenmu 408.7 12.0 24 286 24.2 1 359 59.4 Fenxian 103.3 13.4 2 357 65.1 928 75.4 Yanan 215.0 24.0 64 166 36.4 15 986 67.2 Suide 54.1 2.5 1 789 48.7 4 668 70.0 Tianshui 74.3 20.8 8 934 62.5 2 416 62.3 Xifeng 99.7 21.0 7 065 56.5 3 105 66.3

Soil erosion and vegetation coverage

Vegetation is an important factor affecting soil erosion on the Loess Plateau. Soil loss is exacerbated when vegetation has been destroyed (Shi & Shao, 2000). For example, soil erosion increases sharply when the vegetation coverage is lower than 70 per cent, and becomes much worse when cover is less than 35 per cent

(Chen et al., 2011). The natural vegetation on the Loess Plateau, previously composed of wood forests, shrubs and grasses, has been gradually destroyed by intensified human activities. The forest cover and grass cover are as low as 3 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively (Shi & Shao, 2000).

Vegetation is the most effective form of erosion control. An investigation by Li and Zhang (1997) in a small watershed of the Loess Plateau demonstrated that 40 per cent vegetation cover reduces soil erosion by 62 per cent, and that 54 per cent vegetation cover may reduce erosion by 80 per cent. Studies (Zhu & Tian, 1993;

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Liu, 1997; Carroll et al., 2000) also confirmed that grass and shrubs could improve soil water storage capacity, disperse rapid surface stream flow, and thereby increase resistance to soil loss. Therefore, vegetation restoration and reforestation can play a significant role in soil erosion control.

Soil erosion and land degradation

Land degradation and soil erosion are particularly pressing examples of unsustainable natural resource use, and are present all over the world (Pimentel et al., 1995; Eswaran et al., 2001; Foley et al., 2005). Land degradation is a decline in land quality or reduction in land productivity caused mainly by human activities (Beinroth et al., 1994).

Soil erosion is one form of land degradation, which reduces soil and land productivity (Bai et al., 2008). Loss of soil eventually renders arable land unproductive (Pimentel, et al., 1995). As agricultural land is degraded and abandoned, more forests are cut and converted to agricultural land to meet the needs of an increasing human population (Myers, 1989; Jiang et al., 2003;

Vanacker et al., 2007), with detrimental consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services on the Plateau.

Soil erosion and sediment load changes result in the Yellow River

The Yellow River is about 5464 km long and the main river which flows west to the east through the Loess Plateau (Figure 4.7). In general, about 58 per cent of the annual runoff of the Yellow River comes from its Upper Reaches, 33 per cent comes from the Middle Reaches and the other 9 per cent comes from the Lower

Reaches.

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Because of increasing water consumption by agriculture, industrial and residential sectors in the past few decades (Li, 1997; Brown & Halwei, 1998; He et al., 2003), the annual runoff in the Yellow River has decreased from 3.8×1010 m3 in 1989 to

2.0× 1010m3 in 2002 (He et al., 2006). Since the 1970s the Yellow River has ceased to flow during dry spring seasons and this may have significant implications on regions in the lower reaches of the Yellow River in terms of irrigation and water supply (Liu & Cheng, 2000).

Figure 4.7 Distribution of Upper Reaches and Middle Reaches of the Yellow River on the Loess Plateau region (based on IWMI and YRCC, 2003)

Soil erosion on the Loess Plateau contributes to an extremely high level of sediment loads in the Yellow River. More than 90 per cent of the sediment loads in the Yellow River originate from the soil erosion on the Loess Plateau (Tang et al., 1991). Massive amounts of loess soil enter the main stem and tributaries of the

Yellow River, resulting in sediment loads unprecedented among the world’s major waterways (Wei et al., 2006a).

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Therefore, to understand the dynamics of erosion on the Loess Plateau, observations on sediment yield of the Yellow River may be examined and these are considered a key indicator of the intensity of soil erosion (Zhang, 1999; He et al., 2006).

The severity of soil erosion on the Loess Plateau has changed over the last century, in response to human activities and intervention in the ecosystem at different stages. Table 4.6 indicates the situation with respect to population growth, annual precipitation trend, as well as the annual sediment loads for selected decades of the twentieth century on the Loess Plateau. Note that there is an observed increase in rainfall from 1950 to 1989, but decrease in the 1990s.

Table 4.6 Population increases, annual precipitation change on the Loess Plateau and annual sediment loads of the Yellow River from the 1920s to 1990s (Source: ISRTLP, 1999) Period Population Mean annual Mean annual sediment (104 persons) precipitation (mm) load (107tons) 1920s 3132.9 439.9 19.1 1930s-1940s 3639.5 485.3 26.3 1950s 4872.8 527.0 24.9 1960s-1970s 7407.3 537.4 23.6 1980s 8291.1 560.7 15.7 1990s 8671.0 531.0 12.1

Figure 4.8 further illustrates the changes of sediment load levels of the Yellow

River, as well as major historical events and human interventions that have impacted on soil erosion of the Loess Plateau.

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Figure 4.8 Sediment load of the Yellow River (Huayuankou Station), annual precipitation and human activity from 1919 to 1999 on the Loess Plateau (adapted from Liu et al., 1993; Zhang, 1999)

It is seen from Table 4.6 and Figure 4.6 that the most intensive soil erosion on the plateau occurred in the 1930s and 1960s, corresponding to the highest level of annual sediment loads. In the 1930s, the nationwide civil wars and the Japanese invasion led to mass devastation of forest and grass vegetation on the plateau.

During the 1960s, a large increase in population in the center of the Plateau and the absence of any rational land management or erosion control measures due to the Cultural Revolution resulted in severe erosion, as well as a high peak in sediment load in the Yellow River.

Controls of soil erosion and the conservation scheme on the Loess Plateau didn’t commence until the implementation of social and economic reforms (end of 1970s) after the Cultural Revolution (1960s). In order to control the most severe soil erosion, including number of initiatives were implemented on the Plateau, including tree planting; conservation tillage; dryland farming practices; and

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building terraces and dams (Cai, 2000). Progress has been achieved since the

1980s in both erosion control and food production (Tang et al., 1991; Tang, 2004).

Consequently, the sediment loads in the Yellow River also decreased after the

1980s (Figure 4.8).

Details of environmental conservation practices and actions will be discussed in the Section 4.3 ‘Vegetation rehabilitation and soil conservation on the Plateau’.

4.2.2 Land use, water management and agricultural productivity

Agriculture began on the Loess Plateau about 7,000 years ago and the area is considered to be one of the most important birthplaces of Chinese and world agriculture (Zhu, 1989). But local agricultural productivity is now highly constrained by inappropriate land use and severe soil erosion (Shi & Shao, 2000;

Zhang et al., 2007). In addition, surface and groundwater resources in a large area of the Plateau are often either unavailable or too saline for drinking and irrigation

(Li et al., 2002). Water deficits, therefore, have become another major threat to sustainable agriculture.

Land use pattern and crop production on the Plateau

Improper land use patterns can cause severe soil, water and nutrient losses, and further degrade the land (Luk et al., 1989; Costa et al., 2003). The cultivation of slope land contributes to serious soil erosion on the Loess Plateau (Chen et al.,

2003). Soil erosion becomes more intense as the slope increases; Tang et al. (1998) showed that soil erosion increases greatly when the slope is steeper than 25°.

Under normal conditions, land steeper than 25° should not be cultivated and

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should be covered by forests, shrubs and grasses. However, in some areas of the

Loess Plateau, slopes over 45° are still under cultivation due to poor land management and intensified farming practices (Shi & Shao, 2000).

The crop yields on different types of farmland vary significantly on the Loess

Plateau. A study conducted by Chen et al. (2003) in a small watershed found a big difference in average crop yields between slope land, terrace and alluvial plain

(Table 4.7). The average crop yields (e.g. maize, potato and foxtail) on terrace and alluvial plain are about 1.5 to 2.0 times than that of steep slope and gentle slope.

Table 4.7 Average crop yields in different types of farmland in Danangou Catchment on the Loess Plateau (Source: Chen et al., 2003)

Crop types Steep slope Gentle slope Terrace Alluvial plain (15-25°) area (kg/ha) (< 15°) area (kg/ha) (kg/ha) (kg/ha) Maize 3 000 4 500 6 000 6 500

Potato 7 500 9 000 12 000 12 500

Foxtail 1 000 1 200 1 500 1 680

Apple 7 500 10 000 - -

Therefore greater efforts should be put into reducing farming activities on the slopes and to converting slopes to terraces, in order to reduce soil erosion and improve land productivity sustainably on the Plateau. The benefits of terracing slopes is discussed in Section 4.3 of ‘vegetation rehabilitation and soil conservation on the Plateau’.

Rain-fed farming on the Plateau

Rain-fed farming systems are predominant in the semi-arid areas of the Loess

Plateau. The rain-fed farming area on the Plateau occupies about 80 per cent of

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the total cultivation (Lin, 1996), and is very sensitive to many biophysical factors, but most seriously to the low availability of water (Shan, 1994; Li et al., 2000a;

Wang and Liu, 2003). However, more than 70 per cent of the annual precipitation is in the form of heavy thunderstorms and falls intensively between June and

September. It is thus subject to high inter-annual and inter-seasonal variations (Li et al., 2000a; Li et al., 2002).

Water stress, especially during crop growth stages, is extremely unfavorable for grain production. A study by Li et al. (2000b) in a semiarid region of Gansu

Province in the Loess Plateau shows that the water stress periods for winter crops

(e.g. winter wheat) often occurs during the period from February to April, whereas for summer crops (e.g. maize) it often occurs from April until the start of the rainy season in July (Table 4.8). Furthermore, the water use efficiency (WUE) of rain-fed farming on the plateau is low, only between 0.5kg/m3 to 0.6kg/m3 (Li et al., 2000c; 2001), which is less than half of the average WUE from 1.1kg/m3 to

1.6 kg/m3 (Zhang et al., 2004) on the North China Plain, mainly due to water stress.

Table 4.8 Supply and demand of rainfall for winter wheat and maize in a semiarid region (long-term mean annual rainfall 561mm) of Gansu Province in the Loess Plateau (Source: Li et al., 2000b)

Crops Rainfall (mm) Potential Water Relative crop mean ± SD Evaporation deficit water (mm) (mm) satisfaction (%)

Winter wheat 286 ±75 458 -172 62

Maize 399 ± 96 461 -62 87

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Rainwater harvesting is an effective solution to the problem of water shortage in agricultural production on the Plateau and would help to achieve a high and sustainable yield in rain-fed conditions. Water harvesting has been used for a long period in China (Li et al., 2000c), mainly involving the collection of rainfall runoff for domestic use or livestock watering (Frasier, 1983) and for fruit and crop production (Grewal et al., 1989; Gupta, 1989). However, modern rainwater harvesting techniques were developed in the 1980s (Li, 2000b) when widespread droughts with serious shortages of drinking water and crop failures occurred across many dry areas of China.

Statistics show that the practice of rainwater harvesting solved the drinking water problem for about 23.80 million rural residents and 17.30 million livestock on the

Plateau up to 2000 (Li et al., 2002). Since 1995, the technique of rainwater harvesting has shifted to the supplemental irrigation of crops to solve agricultural water deficits on the Loess Plateau (Cook et al., 2000; Li et al., 2000c). Benefits of rainwater harvesting agriculture at the local community level will be discussed in more detail in the following chapter using the case study in the Huachi County.

4.2.3 Socio-economic vulnerability on the Loess Plateau

The ecosystem of the Loess Plateau is very fragile under a situation of uncontrolled population growth and largely neglected environmental conservation

(Zhang et al., 2011). The deterioration of the natural ecosystem causes declining productivity and other tangible economic losses, which inevitably harm the quality of human life on the Plateau.

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It is argued that the severe soil erosion, along with other adverse factors, including limited rainfall and remote location, has resulted in widespread rural poverty and made both sustainable environmental and economic development in this region an elusive possibility (Shi & Shao, 2000). Farmers’ livelihoods become more vulnerable due to the degraded environmental and social systems.

The field study in Huachi (see Chapter 5 and Chapter 6) represents a more detailed picture of local farmers’ socio-economic vulnerabilities on the Plateau.

4.3 Vegetation Restoration and Soil Conservation: two big programs to improve the natural resource systems on the Plateau

Severe soil erosion has led to widespread land degradation and environmental deterioration on the Loess Plateau. Since the establishment of the People’s

Republic of China, great efforts have been made in revegetation to reduce soil erosion by both Chinese central and local governments.

The World Bank’s two phases of the ‘Loess Plateau Watershed Rehabilitation and

Management Program (1994-2005)’ and the Chinese Government’s ‘Grain for

Green (1999-current)’ program for land and water resource management are two major initiatives which have endeavored to rehabilitate the important water catchment. The key project components and activities, outputs, as well as lessons learned from both programs, are discussed in the following sections. Both the

World Bank and the Chinese Government are working to bring the fragile plateau

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back towards its previous balanced ecosystem.

To formulate and rebuild the foundation of the Loess Plateau natural resource system, approaches of vegetation rehabilitation, reforestation and terracing were initially introduced through the implementation of the World Bank Rehabilitation

Program. It aimed to develop a more stable and productive landscape and biodiversity, based on attributes of the previous ecosystem.

In addition to the initiatives of the World Bank Rehabilitation Program, the national ‘Grain for Green’ (GFG) was improved by introducing a scheme in which the Government bought back land from individual farmers and set asside these lands for natural ecological regeneration purposes.

However, the effectiveness of vegetation restoration and environmental conservation was not as satisfactory as expected for many reasons. The ignorance of the impacts of climate change on program planning and implementation is considered as a key source of uncertainty on the long-term effects of sustainable social-environmental systems development. Therefore, vegetation rehabilitation, as well as land and soil conservation on the Plateau, has a long way to go.

4.3.1 ‘Loess Plateau Watershed Rehabilitation Program’ - World Bank

China suffers from some of the most severe water and soil erosion in the world.

Since the establishment of the Peoples’ Republic of China in October 1949, the

Chinese Government has been involved in the rehabilitation and restoration of the

Loess Plateau. From the early 1950s to the late 1980s, a great effort was made to

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plant trees, shrubs and grasses, and to introduce tillage and dryland farming techniques to achieve self-sufficient food production and soil erosion control

(Chen et al., 1988; Zhou et al., 2006). However, vegetation coverage remained poor for many reasons and soil erosion continued (Chen et al., 2007). Farmers in the region faced poor agricultural productivity and hence increasing poverty as a result of environmental degradation.

The WB project, the Loess Plateau Watershed Rehabilitation Project, ran from

1994-2005 (Phase I 1994-1999, Phase II 1999-2005). The project has furthered three key elements of the Chinese Government’s national development policy, particularly on the Loess Plateau; (a) to alleviate poverty through development of areas with relatively poor resources; (b) to raise productivity of marginal lands; and (c) to enhance the environment through effective land and soil conservation practices.

Two phases of the project have been implemented in 48 counties in Shanxi,

Shaanxi, and Gansu Provinces, and the Autonomous Region of Inner Mongolia, with a total area of 30,000 km2 across the Loess Plateau. The total cost of the investment amounted to USD 550 million.

By the end of the project, there was an increase in agricultural production and, in turn, an increase in the income of 2.5 million people covering 35,080 km2 of land.

The project is considered to be the largest and most successful water and soil conservation project in the world that has long-term and sustainable environmental development outcomes (Chen et al., 2004).

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Objectives of the World Bank program framework

The primary objectives of the World Bank project were to help achieve sustainable development in the Loess Plateau by increasing agricultural production and farmers’ incomes, and to improve ecological conditions for the collapsed ecosystem through: (a) introduction of more efficient and sustainable uses of land and water resources; and (b) enhancing soil erosion reduction and control (World Bank, 2005). These project objectives are consistent with the poverty reduction strategy of the Chinese Government’s ‘Eighty-Seven Poverty

Reduction Program’, which aimed to eliminate poverty for 80 million people over seven years from 1994 to 2000.

The project combined sustainable soil and water conservation with gains in farm income on the Plateau. Furthermore, it aimed at sustainable social, economic, and environmental development of the fragile watersheds. Therefore, factors such as poverty levels, strong leadership, and commitment at different government levels, were also considered in the design and implementation of the program.

Program components and activities

The World Bank Project had three main components: cropland improvement, slope-land protection, and support services and training. The first two components were directed at the physical environmental conservation and farmers’ agricultural income, and the third component was mainly for institutional capacity building in sustainable natural resources management.

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• Cropland improvement

The cropland improvement had three parts: (a) terracing; (b) sediment control structures; and (c) irrigation. It was designed to convert slopeland and old irregular terraces into wide, level terraces, to enable sustainable agriculture with improved land productivity. The sediment control structures, including check- dams, dams and water cisterns, were designed to control flooding and sediments, create productive land, and store water for irrigation and drinking water supply for the villages. Irrigation activities included the construction of rainwater harvesting systems to catch and store rainwater for small-sized farm and orchard irrigation purposes.

• Slopeland Protection

The slopeland protection components included three sub-components of: (a) afforestation and vegetative cover improvement; (b) grass and livestock development; and (c) horticulture. Trees, shrubs and grasses were planted to increase the vegetation cover and to improve the erosion control capacity in the project areas. Fruit trees and livestock development were also introduced to diversify production systems and increase farm income.

• Support Services and Training

The third component included research and extension activities, training and study tours, and monitoring and evaluation activities, to develop the capacity of government agencies at different levels to better manage natural resources.

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Program significant outcomes

The project was rated as successful in terms of environmental and socio-economic outcomes (Chen et al., 2004). From 1994 to 2005, more than 920,000 ha of eroded lands and areas were rehabilitated with vegetation, shrubs, trees and grasses on the project areas. Vegetation cover increased from 17 per cent to 33 per cent across the project area, with an average annual soil erosion reduction of 107 million tonnes (The World Bank, 2005). Also, approximately 190,000 ha of slopeland was terraced to improve land productivity. The average grain production in the project area went up from 428 kg per capita to 630 kg per capita. The average annual income per capita also increased from 45 USD in 1994 to 203 USD in

2005 (The World Bank, 2005).

Implications of program activities

• Terracing of slope farmlands

Terracing is used to convert slopeland into level fields that retain more rainfall, so have greater soil moisture and are more resistant to soil erosion due to the reduced gradient. As cultivation on slopeland can lead to soil erosion (Wei et al., 2000), croplands on suitable gentle slopeland were converted into terraces under the program, with financial support from both the program and local government, with in kind contributions from the participating farmers in terms of their labour

(Figure 4.9a and b). In return, terraces produced higher crop yields and also allow for more diversified cropping.

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Figure 4.9(a) the typical slopeland before the World Bank project and (b) leveled terrace land after project implementation (photo source: the World Bank, 2002)

Note: Picture (a): typical Loess Plateau site prior to the World Bank project, with very poor natural vegetation, and severe soil erosion mainly due to slopeland cropping and heavy grazing by goats; Picture (b): project site after World Bank program treatment with moderate slopes terraced to provide good yields due to water conservation, with shrubs and trees planted on steep slopes.

The building of level terraces enhanced water infiltration, raised the rainfall utilization rate, improved land quality and crop yields, and conserved soil and water (Deng et al., 2000; Deng et al., 2006). Improvements to soil water and soil fertility on the terraces increased crop yield some 50-100 per cent above that of the previously sloped land (Chen et al., 2004). For instance, the average yield of maize increased in some of the project areas from 3000kg/ha on gentle slopeland to 6000kg/ha on converted terrace, and the yield of potatoes from 7500kg/ha to

12000kg/ha (Chen et al., 2003). As a result of the extra yield, steep slopeland was no longer needed for agriculture. Not cultivating slopeland is an effective way of controlling soil erosion and realizing more profitable and sustainable land use and production.

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The terracing of slopeland has also resulted in a significant shift from labour intensive farming practice to a more efficient mechanised farming system. For instance, simple farming machines are now used, such as small-sized land cultivators and seeding machines that can be used on level cropland. To some extent, this has freed farmers of some farm labour and enabled labour to be reallocated to off-farm wage earning or other self-employment (Uchida et al.,

2007). More details on the impacts of terracing will be discussed in Chapter 6.

However, due to the small scale of farmlands for each household, about 20-40 Mu

(1.3-2.7ha) per Household, only a few farmers would like to invest in modern farming machines. The adaptability and efficiency of the new farming system based on the land use changes will be further explored in the discussion in

Chapter 7.

• Check dams for sediments control

Under the World Bank project, more than 3000 check dams were built or upgraded for sediment control. A check dam is a type of dam, small, 1-2 meters high, and is built of rock or brushwood. They are designed to slow the flow of water, particularly in the steep tributary gullies, and prevent undercutting of gully sides (The World Bank, 2005). As demonstrated in Figure 4.10, check dams intercept runoff, impound water and conserve soil, retain sediments, and produce areas of farmland behind dams. Therefore building check-dams is one significant strategy to reduce soil erosion on the Plateau (Xu et al., 2004).

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Figure 4.10 The designing of check-dams to conserve soil and water on the Loess Plateau (Source: developed based on Gates et al., 2011)

Check dams are very popular on the Plateau for their high success rate of controlling the loss of soil and water (Fang et al., 1998; Hu et al., 2002; Jiao et al.,

2003; Li, 2003; Xu et al., 2009). Following on from their success in the World

Bank project, the Chinese Government has encouraged the use of check-dams across the Loess Plateau. The Chinese Ministry of Water Resources states that more than 100,000 check dams have been built on the Loess Plateau over the past

50 years, and another 160,000 check dams will be built on Plateau by 2020

(CWMR, 2003).

However, debate on check dam building also exists. Chen et al. (2007) argue that although a large number of check dams has been built, the amounts of sediment entering the Yellow River still remains large. Check dams were soon infilled after a rainstorm if there was still severe soil erosion due to neglected revegetation works. Furthermore, check dam building is a strong human intervention.

Siriwardena et al. (2006) assert that any intervention in a complex system may alter the balance of the system, including changes of landscape pattern, ecological

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and hydrological processes. For example, Liu (2004)’s study reveals that the depletion of water flow in the Yellow River may be a result of the interception of runoff by the huge numbers of check dams on the Plateau. Therefore, the impacts of check dams on the local and wider catchment systems need long-term and integrated investigation.

• Afforestation

Within the program’s framework, afforestation played a significant role in the ecological restoration and construction on the Plateau (Zhu et al, 1993; Yu et al.,

2009). ‘Arbor trees’, such as the Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia), Chinese pine (Pinus armandii), spruce (Picea mariana) and poplar (Liriodendron), were introduced to the wastelands. In areas less suitable for tress, ‘drought-tolerant shrubs’, such as sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides) and Chinese peashrub

(Caragana sinica) were planted.

By planting these species, although not all of them are local natives, the program aimsed to assist regeneration of biodiversity and resilience of the local ecosystem.

Studies have shown that both grasses and shrubs can improve both anti-scour capability and water storage capacity of soil while simultaneously dispersing and even eliminating rapid stream flow by increasing infiltration capacity. This in turn increases the soil’s resistance to erosion and water losses (Liu, 1997; Carroll et al.,

2000; Loch, 2000).

However, as a result of the lack of acknowledgement of the adverse impacts of climate change, including drying weather and reduced rainfall, a large proportion

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of the planted trees under the program died, mainly to due to water scarcity.

Therefore the long-term effects of afforestation for environmental conservation remain uncertain. More discussion on the effects of climate change on the effectiveness of afforestation will be included in the discussion in Chapter 7.

• Vegetation recovery and grazing ban

As part of the project, large areas of introduced improved ground cover species, mainly astralagus (Astragalus membricanaceus) and alfalfa (Medicago sativa), were planted on predominantly flat or gently sloping wastelands. This had two important purposes: (a) to provide fodder for pen-fed animals in order to reduce pressure from unsustainable grazing on slopes; and (b) to protect the soil. The perennial grass cover on slopes forms an effective means of soil protection

(World Bank, 2002). After the closing of the natural grasslands and wastelands to animals, particularly goats, the growing of grasses and other ground cover species was successfully practiced on a large scale in most project areas.

Protecting areas from animals has had a striking effect on vegetation recovery.

Free grazing of goats and sheep made a significant contribution to soil erosion and land degradation. Areas with newly planted trees, shrubs, and grasses were closed off from animals, so vegetation could regenerate without the pressure of grazing.

This had a dramatic effect on the vegetation’s regeneration, even in drought- affected areas. The grazing ban has been successfully extended within the area, and its impact has subsequently been successfully extended well beyond the project areas.

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However, it is necessary to evaluate the impacts of the ban at the local community level. For example, what are farmers’ responses to the ban? What are the implications of the grazing ban on livestock husbandry practices, and farmers’ livelihood? What are the potential impacts of climate change on farmers’ livestock raising behavior? The case study in Huachi was designed to explore more about the above issues. Findings will be included in Chapter 6 and Chapter 7.

• Poverty alleviation

The World Bank rehabilitation on the Loess Plateau attacked poverty at its core. It directly helped to alleviate poverty in the project areas. Most of the counties in the project were classified as among the poorest in China, having an annual per capita income below RMB 300 which is the marked level for China’s national poor

(USD44, currency 1USD=6.8RMB). By the end of the program, the average net income per capita of farmers had increased from RMB 300 (USD44) to about

RMB 1,263 (USD186) in project areas.

The comparison of per capita net income between project and non-project areas was also significant (Figure 4.11). From 1996, participant farmers’ net income in project areas continued to increase and was about 50 per cent higher than that of non-project areas. The income of local individual participant farmers increased as a result of changes in land utilization, cropping patterns, as well as production technology introduced by the program.

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Figure 4.11 Comparison of Farmers’ Per Capita Net Income in the World Bank project and Non-project areas (Source: Chen et al., 2004)

Institutional development under the World Bank program

An important aim of the Chinese Central Government’s environmental policy towards sustainable development in the Loess Plateau region is to significantly reintroduce a more natural vegetation structure, with trees, shrubs and grasses

(The State Environmental Protection Administration of China, 2002). The success of reforestation, water and soil conservation, improved land productivity, as well as raised farmer’s incomes, achieved by the Loess Plateau Watersheds

Rehabilitation Program, has profoundly contributed to the Chinese Government’s policy framework of watershed-scale comprehensive management schemes and sustainable development.

The key policy and institutional reforms promoted under the project are sustainable agriculture and soil conservation, and long-term land use contracts

(The World Bank, 2005). These policies have evolved considerably at both national and provincial levels. A complete legal and policy framework has been

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established and demonstrated on a large scale in these project areas. However, the implementation of these policies at the grass roots level was inconsistent (The

World Bank, 2005).

• Soil conservation and sustainable agriculture

Soil and water conservation is compatible with sustainable and productive agriculture. Establishing sustainable agriculture requires appropriate management to minimize soil erosion on the Loess Plateau (Li, 2000a). The replacement of unsustainable crop cultivation on steep slopes with flat terrace farming by the

World Bank program was thus an effective way to combat soil erosion and increase land productivity (Chen et al., 2004). Terracing, the primary conservation and management practice on the plateau, increases rainfall infiltration and fertilizer conservation, and then reduces erosion and increases land productivity

(Shi & Shao, 2000; Chen et al., 2007; Lu et al., 2009).

• Land tenure and management

The Chinese Government’s policy for land tenure in rural areas was crucial to the success of the World Bank rehabilitation program. Previously, the farmers’ household responsibility system was in place from the late 1970s to early 1980s in rural China. Under the household-based system, individual households contracted specific plots of land for use and management. This contrasted with the former practice of collective farming (Lin, 1988). The household responsibility system is also considered key to China’s successful rural reform as well as the dramatic growth in China’s agricultural production over the past decades.

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However, longer terms for land contracts are required to ensure long-term sustainable development and management of land under the current household responsibility system. The general terms under the household responsibility system for land contract vary between only 10 years to 30 years. It is argued that the insecurity and uncertainty in land tenure weakens farmers’ incentive for any long-term investment and improvement of the land (Li et al., 1998; Krusekopf,

2002).

Under the World Bank rehabilitation project, longer terms for land contacts were applied in all areas covered by the project: for instance, a minimum of 50 years for steep and waste land; 50 years for forestry plots; and 30 years for orchards and terraces. All land developed under the project was contracted out to individual participant farmers. New land contracts were signed between farmers and local governments to explicitly state the terms, land use rights, and obligations under which farmers’ interests are legally protected (The World Bank, 2002). The new applied land contract system went beyond cropland to the areas reclaimed by afforestation, grasslands and even wastelands on the Loess Plateau. In return, farmers under the contract had the right to fully benefit from the output of the land for which they were responsible.

Uncertainty of the long-term effects of the World Bank program

The comprehensive World Bank rehabilitation program succeeded in achieving a high level of environmental regeneration as well as socio-economic improvement on the Loess Plateau. Unfortunately, no further post-program impact evaluations have been done on the project areas. Thus, in the long-term, the social, economic

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and environmental sustainability of the program remains uncertain. Furthermore, significant rainfall reduction and temperature rises, as well as more frequent droughts that have predominated in this region over the past few decades, were not systematically considered in either the program design or implementation.

4.3.2 The ‘Grain for Green’ Program on the Loess Plateau

In 1999, the Chinese Government initiated a comprehensive incentive-based conservation program, called ‘Grain for Green (GFG)’, to combat degradation and environmental deterioration as part of China’s long-term national strategy for sustainable development (Xu et al., 2006b). Both the scale and magnitude of investment in GFG make it one of the largest ecological restoration and environmental rehabilitation programs in the world (Zhang et al., 2000; Tang,

2004; Liu & Diamond, 2005; Uchida et al., 2005). The GFG program aims to achieve the rehabilitation of vegetation and environmental restoration throughout western China, including the Loess Plateau region. It is designed to achieve sustainable use of natural resources while increasing agricultural productivity.

The aims of the GFG program are to increase national forest cover, improve vegetation regeneration, alleviate poverty, support household livelihoods, and establish a more sustainable agricultural production structure (SFA, 2003; Bennett,

2008; Cao et al. 2009). GFG sites were initially selected in areas with high potential to minimise soil erosion. The priority program areas were the upstream regions of major river systems in China, including the Yellow and Yangtze, which had experienced massive ecological degradation and environmental stresses over the past 50 years (Zhang et al., 2000).

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Components of the GFG Program

The GFG program involves three main components.

• Cropland retirement

Cropland on steep slopeland (defined as 25 degrees or more) is retired from cropping and converted to forests and/or grassland. Replanted forests can be of two kinds: ‘ecological forests’ of native trees and shrubs, aimed at regenerating native vegetation and stopping soil erosion; and ‘economic forests’ of orchards and timber trees, aimed at providing income benefits while stopping soil erosion.

Replanted grassland was primarily alfalfa which was used as fodder for domestic livestock.

• Terracing

Cropland on gentle slopeland (defined as 10-25 degrees) was contour terraced.

Contour terracing improves the agricultural productivity of land and therefore increases farmers’ incomes.

• Banning grazing and logging

The program involved establishment of bans on grazing and tree cutting on fragile mountains/hills and barren marginal lands with high levels of soil erosion, and replanting these areas with forests (ecological and/or economic) and ground cover.

These areas may be owned either communally or by individual farmers. The ratio of ecological forest to economic forest should be no less than 4 to 1, based on regional or local GFG program objectives (State Council, 2000). More strengths and constraints regarding the grazing ban and its impacts on both local ecosystem

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conservation and farmers’ livelihood will be outlined in the discussion in Chapter

Implementation and outcomes of the GFG program

Participating farmers received grain, cash compensation and free seedlings (trees, shrubs or grass) in return for retiring the cropland on steep slopelands. On gentle slopelands, the contour terracing improved land productivity and farmers’ income, but no additional benefits were received. Where grazing was banned on fragile mountains/hills and marginal lands, farmers received only seedlings for grass replanting. When a community was selected for participation in the program, households could choose to retire all or part of their steep cropland for regeneration.

Since its inception in 1999, the GFG conservation program has made dramatic and nationally significant impacts on soil erosion and regeneration of cropland.

GFG has been implemented in more than 2000 counties across 25 provinces and municipalities in China. Expenditures have been large: by 2010 the Chinese

Government had spent around USD40 billion on this program (SFA, 2010). As a result of the increased vegetation brought about by this program, the overall national forest coverage rate increased from 16.8 per cent in 1999 to 20 per cent in

2010 (SFA, 2010). In total around 25 million ha of degraded land and fragile hills had been retired and converted by this program by 2008. This includes over 23 million ha of degraded land reforested nationwide, including 8.5 million ha of cropland and 14.5 million ha of barren marginal lands converted to forest (SFA,

2000-2009). Another 1.8 million ha of fragile mountains/hills were closed from

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grazing and were reforested under the program by 2008. The GFG program is on- going and will continue to expand to more provinces and regions of China (State

Council, 2007).

Compensation to farmers

Payments to participants in the GFG scheme were a core element to its success.

The GFG program was one of China’s first ‘payment for environmental services’

(PES) schemes (Bennett, 2008). PES schemes reward landowners for conserving the source of the ecosystem service, with subsidies or market payments from those who benefit (WWF, 2010). The Chinese Government provides participant farmers with three types of compensation – grain, cash payments, and free seedlings – for retiring land from production and thereby providing ecosystem services of regenerated vegetation and improved land productivity. Seedlings are provided to participant farmers only in the first year (SFA, 2003). Grain and cash payments are delivered annually to farmers for two to eight years after retiring the land: two years for planting of grassland, five years for planting of economic forests, and eight years for planting of ecological forests.

Both grain and cash compensations are generally quite generous. Participant farmers who convert their cropland to forest or grassland receive compensation of

1500-2250kg of grain/ha/year (worth about 2100-3150 Yuan RMB (USD308-

463)/ha/year), and a cash payment of 300 Yuan RMB (USD44)/ha/year. This appears to compare well to international standards. For example, GFG farmers’ compensation level is higher on a per hectare basis than the average rental

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payment (USD112.68/ha/year) of the US Conservation Reserve Program16 (CRP) in 2002 (Heimlich, 2003; Uchida et al., 2005), which likewise involves farmers retiring land from production for conservation.

Adequate compensation to farmers is likely to be critical in order to ensure they do not return retired cropland back to cultivation after payments cease. Studies have found that the level of GFG compensation payments exceeds the likely value of crop yields from the retired land (Bennett et al., 2008; Xu et al., 2010), for the periods of time in which compensation is paid.

However, in the longer term, the loss of arable land due to land retirement will lead to a considerable reduction in grain and crop production by individual small farmers, which is likely to become an issue when financial compensation ceases

(Wang et al., 2007). Although, to some extent, loss of arable land will be offset by income from economic forests planted on retired land and by improved productivity of terracing (see following section).

Implications of the GFG Program

• Farmers’ livelihoods and environmental rehabilitation on the plateau

In general, there is a very strong argument that if conservation strategies are to be effective, they need to take account of local livelihoods (Salafsky and Wollenberg,

2000; Sanderson & Redford, 2004). The GFG program has successfully integrated environmental rehabilitation with strategies to improvement of farmers’

16 The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is a cost-share and rental payment program under the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and is administered by the USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA). The CRP conservation scheme is similar to the GFG, in terms of the rental payments and financial incentives to landowners to set-aside their lands and create long-term land cover. Source: www.nrcs.usda.gov

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livelihoods. The GFG program encourages and enables participant farmers to modify their agricultural practices and income-generating activities so that they do not rely heavily on program compensation payments for their livelihood. The program encourages a strategic shift in rural labour allocation from low-profit grain production to more profitable crops, and more importantly, from on-farm work to off-farm work (Uchida et al., 2009).

There is a dramatic increase in the proportion of income derived from off-farm income after the GFG program. Groom et al. (2006) found increased off-farm labour participation in data collected four years after the program began. This is likely to have long-term benefits for alleviating rural poverty. Off-farm activities including self-employment and wage income-earning activities, both in local job markets and in migrant labour markets, have been a driving force in reducing poverty in rural China (deBrauw, 2002; Kung, 2002; Bowlus & Sicular, 2003).

Changed patterns of income of the GFG participant households in the study area suggest that after the program, participant farmers are less likely to be stuck in a poverty trap or remain in subsistence agriculture, compared with their income status before the GFG program.

• Community-based approaches and the GFG program

Community-based approaches empower local people in the management of environmental projects with the aim of creating accountability and ownership of environmental development objectives (Spiteri & Nepal, 2006). Superficially, the

GFG has been implemented by local communities, given the huge numbers of farmers participating in it and benefiting from it. However, there are reasons to

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doubt its level of community engagement, and this could have implications for the long-term sustainability of the conservation outcomes.

The participation of the community and farmers’ in the GFG program has been described as ‘quasi-voluntary’ (Uchida et al., 2009; Xu et al., 2010). The Chinese

State Forestry Administration (SFA) and provincial and sub-provincial forestry bureaus are primarily responsible for targeting general areas of land for retirement and setting land retirement quotas to be met by local county and/or township governments (Zuo, 2002). Under the circumstances, local county and township governments feel obligated to provide the requisite area of land and coerce farmers into participating. Xu et al. (2010) found that nearly half of participant households in its study sample believed that they did not have the autonomy to choose whether or not to participate, nor which plots to retire.

Likewise in this study, it was found that the targeting of areas and households for land retirement was generally conducted via a top-down approach, with limited participation and consultation from the local community and farmers. It is possible that the lack of genuine ownership of the program by local people may decrease the likelihood that they will continue to respect and uphold the retirement of land areas from production in the years following the end of the program.

Uncertainty, climate change and the GFG program

Climate change is a significant source of uncertainty for the enduring impacts of the GFG program. The GFG program strategies include little consideration and

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integration of climate change (Hannah et al., 2002), potentially impairing their long-term sustainability. For instance, orchards have greatly increased in area under the GFG, but their yield is heavily dependent on the amount of irrigation water available and the existence of favourable temperatures during certain periods. The survival rates of the planted trees, shrubs and grasses in some areas were relatively low due to the reduced rainfall and increased drought events.

Given these facts, the conservation strategies of the GFG program will need to be reassessed and revised in the face of future climate change.

More details of the implications on natural resource management under the programs in relation to climate change on the Plateau will be included in the discussion in Chapter 7.

4.4 Chapter Summary

This Chapter starts with a well-rounded picture of a unique fragile ecosystem on the Loess Plateau, including the geographical attributes, climatic variations, and tragic consequences of the long-term overuse of natural resources. It is agreed that the severe soil erosion due to centuries of aggressive land cultivation and deforestation is the key factor that contributed to ecosystem degradation. The soil erosion associated with unfavorable climatic conditions is constraining the land productivity and farmers’ income in this area. The whole plateau and in particular the agricultural sector are thus extremely vulnerable.

The chapter then moves to the measures and practices undertaken for ecosystem rehabilitation and soil conservation over recent decades. A series of ecosystem

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conservation and rehabilitation initiatives have been implemented since the late

1950s to reduce soil erosion, maintain land productivity and improve environmental quality in the Loess Plateau; they include the planting of trees, shrubs and grasses, and the construction of terraces and check-dams. The two most significant projects in the area are the World Bank ‘Loess Plateau Watershed

Rehabilitation Program (1994-2005)’ and the national ‘Grain for Green (1999 to current)’ project.

The achievements of the two programs include the rebuilding of some of the key elements of the previously complex social-environmental systems, and helping to make the region more resilient to environmental stresses. For example, the planting of trees, shrubs and grasses on the retired slopelands and wastelands has regenerated the vegetation and helped to minimize soil erosion. The land development by terracing has further improved the agricultural productivity and farmers’ income, and again helped to reduce loss of soil from run-off. However, unfortunately neither of the two has integrated climate change scenarios into program planning, design or implementation. This then results in potentially poor outcomes from revegetation works and high uncertainty regarding the long-term sustainability of the social-environmental system.

The Chapter concludes that the high variability of the climate change is the main source of uncertainty; while a lack of climate change knowledge as well as low adaptive management capacity of the regional governments is likely to present great challenges for continuing environmental conservation and socio-economic sustainable development on the Loess Plateau.

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CHAPTER FIVE: AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS’

LIVELIHOOD IN HUACHI COUNTY

5.1 Physical features of Huachi

5.1.1 Geographical attribute

Huachi County is 36°15’N, 107°48’E of Gansu Province is located in the western area of the Loess Plateau of China (Figure 5.1). The altitude ranges from 1,100 to

1,700 meters; the county covers a total area of 3,800 km2 and has a population of around 0.13 million (calculated at the end of 2008). The county administratively incorporates 15 townships, 111 villages and 646 farmers’ groups. Fanzhuang

Village has been selected as the pilot village for conducting farmers’ group discussion and questionnaires. Fanzhuang Village17 is located in the southwest of

Huachi, a distance of 30 km from the county city, and has a total area of 40 km2.

Huachi County is in a gullied geographic region, typical of the Loess Plateau

(Figure 5.2). The predicted average gully density for Huachi County is as high as

11.17km/km2. The landform is intersected by deep gullies of 200-300 meters in depth that contribute to severe soil erosion. The average soil erosion modulus of the whole county is 21,000 kg/km2 (Huachi Water and Land Conservation Bureau,

2008).

17 There are 346 households and 1594 people in Fanzhuang. Farmers’ average annual income was 889 Yuan RMB (USD141) in 2008. The average area of farmland per person is about 0.7ha (with 0.17ha terrace).

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Figure 5.1 Geographical location of Huachi County in Loess Plateau

Figure 5.2 Huichi County, the typical gullied region of the Loess Plateau (photo source: taken by author during field study in Huachi County, 2009)

In Huachi County, there are four classic categories of landforms (see Figure 5.2); each has its unique feature and function (Land Resource Bureau of Huachi, 2009).

• Loess ridge: the loess ridge varies from 1400 to 1500 meters height,

where the slopes are crossed with a series of stair-like features known as

‘catsteps’. Trees and shrubs grow along the more moist ravines and

backslopes which have been used to provide potential areas for ‘natural

secondary forest’ and ‘forest-steppe’ development.

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• Plateau: the altitude of the plateau is from 1350 to 1450 meters. The

thickness of the soil layer is from 150 to 250 meters, with 2° to 3° land

surface gradient. More than 2,700 hectare of the plateau is used as

farmland, providing the main wheat production region of the county.

• Gullies: a total of 7750 gullies and ditches are distributed throughout the

whole county at a ravine density of 1.81km/km2. The highly erodible

and unstable gullies can lengthen and widen quickly after rainstorms.

• Slopelands: the slopelands contain the major part of the cultivated lands

for local agriculture. The land surface gradient of the slopelands18 varies

from 0° to 35°. One of the most efficient way to restore soil eroded areas

of the plateau is to carve the slopelands (less than 25°) to form terraces

for farming land.

The soils in Huachi County consist of grey cinnamonic soil, loessial soil and dark loessial soil. The loess soils had good agricultural properties at one time.

Nevertheless, due to serve soil erosion, drought and improper fertilization (Liu et al., 2008) in last half century, the Soil Organic Matter19 (SOM) of the loess soils has dropped to an average 0.77-0.93 per cent, comparing with a good SOM varying from 1 to 6%.

It is necessary to understand the physical characteristics (Table 5.1) of both the

18 The slopelands in Huachi include steep slopeland (25-35 degree), gentle slopeland (10-25 degree), and flat land (0-10 degree). 19 Soil organic matter comprises (SOM) all living soil organisms and all the remains of previous organisms in their various degrees of decomposition. It is an important determinant of soil physical, chemical and biological fertility. SOM is labile which can decline rapidly if the soil environment changes, and is replenished by inputs of organic material to the soil. The SOM of good agricultural topsoil is in the range of 1 to 6% (Source: Cotching et al., 2001; 2002)

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soil types and land condition to improve the agricultural and afforestation measures as well as the technological innovation in this area. For example, the

County Agricultural Bureau has already applied the governmental project of

‘calibrating fertilizer dosage according to soil characteristics’ on demonstration farmlands in the local area over recent years.

The data from the local land resource authority reveals that at the county level, first class land (considered to be at a slope of＜5°) occupies 7 per cent of the county, second-class land (5~15°) occupies 23.6 per cent, third class land (15~25°) occupies 35.4 per cent, fourth (25~35°) and fifth class land (＞35°) occupy 34 per cent of the county area.

Table 5.1 Classficiation and properties of land resource in Huachi (data and information sourced from the Huachi Statistic Yearbook as well as the interviews with relevant key informants from the county level) Class of Surface Physical Soil type SOM* Soil erosion Land suitability & land Gradient location (%) level utilization First class <5° Plain top of Loessial soil 0.8 Mild or Grain and cash loess ridge slight crops and plateau Second 5~15° Middle of Loessial soil 0.6-0.8 Slight or Farmland, class loess ridge moderate grassland and cash slopes forest - suitable for terracing Third class 15~25° Lower part Loessial soil & 0.5-0.8 Moderate Planting grass & of the gullies dark loessial soil afforestation - and slopes suitable for terracing Fourth 25~35° Bottom of Loessial soil & 0.3-0.5 Intensive Trees and shrubs class the gullies gray cinnamonic for water and soil and slopes soil conservation

Fifth class >35° Bottom of Loessial soil <0.3 Intensive Vegetation the gullies recovery and and slopes rehabilitation * SOM – Soil Organic Matter

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Unsustainable agricultural practices have accelerated land degradation, soil erosion and deforestation. Broad flat terraces for crops and narrow terraces for trees and shrubs are essential for profitable use of lands in the plateau areas.

5.1.2 Soil erosion and conservation approaches

The whole county has experienced severe soil erosion, as well as ecosystem degradation, mainly due to long-term unsustainable water and land management, and over-grazing. Before the 1980s, the area of land suffering from soil erosion in

Huachi had reached 34,000 hectares, about 90 per cent of the total land area. It was able to occur as a consequence of the specific Loess Plateau geographical attributes, which meant that the intensive rainfall could quickly converge and generate surface runoff and flooding (Mu et al., 1999). Low vegetation cover on the loess ridges and in the gullies accelerates the surface runoff generation process and exacerbates soil erosion throughout the county (Sun et al., 2007).

Government policies and actions on soil conservation and afforestation were adopted to regenerate vegetation during the early 1990s. In early 1994, Huachi

County was selected as a project area for the World Bank’s ‘Loess Plateau

Watershed Rehabilitation Program’ Phase I, and was later also selected in Phase II of the program. The other big national environmental initiative - the ‘Grain for

Green’ program was also launched in Huachi County in 2000, and is ongoing.

The key components of the two programs were the conversion of croplands into forest or grassland, and the banning of livestock grazing on mountains and hills.

These components have contributed to significant improvements in the regional

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ecosystem, especially in terms of reduced soil erosion and improved vegetation regeneration. According to interviews with officials from Huachi County Forestry

Bureau, re-afforestation, with ecological forests in particular, has led to increased species diversity of trees, shrubs and grasses, and the rebuilding of the local ecological system.

The conversion of croplands to forest or grassland and banning of livestock grazing on mountains and hills, were implemented from 2000 onwards by both the Huachi County and township governments, in accordance with state government policy. With regards to environmental regeneration, over the last decade more than 18,320ha of forest and 17,166ha of grassland were planted, with another 5,046ha of natural forests and grasslands protected from grazing (Huachi

Statistics Bureau, 1999-2008). In addition, more than 10,040ha of eroded gentle slopeland has been converted to terraces.

There have been significant improvements to the regional ecosystem in terms of reduced soil erosion and improved vegetation regeneration (see Figure 5.3). Soil erosion has been controlled across more than 1606 km2, nearly half the affected area in the county. Cover of forest and grass has been increased from 19.8 per cent in 2000 to about 26.8 per cent by the end of 2008 (Huachi Statistics Bureau,

1999-2008).

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Figure 5.3 Area of Zhoujiagou Watershed in Huachi County before any conservation programs in Huachi, in 1996 (a), and after, in 2009 (b). (Picture (a) was taken by the World Bank Loess Plateau project Phase II. Picture (b) was taken by author, during the field survey in 2009.)

5.1.3 Land use changes

The land use pattern in Huachi has changed significantly in last two decades.

Table 5.2 shows the long-term shift in land use from 1982 to 2008 across the county. In 2008, the greatest changes compared to 1982 were the increase in replanted economic forests (3077 per cent), terraces (559 per cent) and ecological forests (273 per cent). Similarly, the total use of crops on steep and gentle slopeland was greatly reduced (88 per cent) over this period.

Table 5.2 County level land use pattern comparison between the years 1982 and 2008 (Source: Huachi County Statistic Yearbook, 1982-2008)

Arable Land (ha) Ecological Economic Grassland Year Total Terrace Steep/Gentle Forest (ha) Forest (ha) (ha) Slopeland 1982 57266 3830 53436 68220 107 198867 2008 31668 25224 6444 254726 3400 214727

Change - 45% + 559 % - 88% + 273% + 3077% + 7%

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The land use changed mainly due to the World Bank ‘Loess Plateau Watershed

Rehabilitation and Management Project’ and the national ‘Grain for Green’ (GFG) program. Table 5.3 shows the change in land use experienced by individual small households over a decade, based on the 35 household questionnaires. In 1999 on average almost half of each household’s cropland was steep slopeland, and another third was gentle slopeland. By 2009, however, the percentage of household cropland on steep slopeland and gentle slopeland was reduced to zero and to 7 per cent respectively, with a corresponding increase in terraces of 25 per cent of land.

Table 5.3 Estimated land use change at the household level* in Fanzhuang Village in Huachi from 1999 to 2009 (n=35) (Source: Huachi household survey, 2009) Year 1999 Year 2009 Land use types Area (ha)/HH** Per cent (%) Area (ha)/HH Per cent (%) Steep Slopeland 2 49 0 0 (> 25 degree) Cropland Gentle Slopeland 1.31 33 0.3 7 (10-25 degree) Level terrace 0 0 1 25 Economic forest 0 0 0.67 16.5 Ecological forest 0.33 8 0.67 16.5 Grassland (alfalfa) 0.33 8 1.33 33 Vegetable 0.06 2 0.06 2

*There are on average 4-5 persons in a household in the county; **HH: Rural household that participated in the survey.

The data from the local community indicates that all cropland on steep slopeland was converted to either commercial forests, ecological forests or grassland; this increased the average farm areas for this purpose to 16.5 per cent, 16.5 per cent and 33 per cent respectively. The grazing ban on grassland shifted 100 per cent of individual farmer’s previous land subject to free grazing to replanted grassland for pen-fed fodder supply.

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Before the land use pattern shifted, farmers needed to grow crops on at least 4ha

(about 4 ha per household, each household with an average of five people in

Fanzhuang Village) of slopeland to sustain their families, and they suffered physically from the traditional tillage techniques and the heavy load of farming activities each year. Nowadays, more than half of the farmers’ cropland has been retired and the productivity of the remaining land has improved. This has relieved the farmers to a great extent from their high-input, low-output farming activities.

The field survey of local households revealed that more than 80 per cent of the farmers are happy with the amount of land they have retired. More details of farming activities, as well as other farmer income sources (such as livestock husbandry), will be discussed in the following section.

5.2 Climatic conditions and variability

5.2.1 Climate characteristics

Located in the mid-latitude zone and the central part of the Loess Plateau, Huachi

County has the typical north temperate continental monsoon climate. It has very dry winters and springs, and hot summers. The average annual mean precipitation and average annual mean temperature was 474 mm and 8.5°C respectively, over the period of 1965 to 2006. The annual mean precipitation varies from 320mm to

510mm, with annual mean temperature of 7-8°C. The fog free days range from

140 to 160 days per year. The county has experienced severe drought and decreasing rainfall over the last 30 years.

The pattern of uneven monthly precipitation and temperature distribution

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throughout the year (Figure 5.4) greatly contributes to the seasonal floods in the summer periods and severe droughts during the winter and spring periods. On average more than 70 per cent of the annual rain falls from July to October, during the hottest summer temperatures. Notably, rainfall during July and August constitutes half of the annual rainfall. The major dry period is from November to

April and, on average, this produces only 13 per cent of the whole year’s rain.

This unfavorable temporal allocation of rainfall became a significant constraint to the development of sustainable agricultural in Huachi. The excessive level of surface evaporation, mostly due to high temperatures and the poor water capture capacity of the exposed loessial soil, makes dryland farming much more vulnerable in the plateau region (Wang et al., 2003; Yu et al., 2002).

Figure 5.4 Monthly distribution patterns of precipitation and evaporation in Huachi (monthly precipitation data from Huachi meteorological station 1971-2008)

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Drought20 events are devastating to the production of staple crops (winter wheat, maize and potato) in the local area (Gao, 2003; Zhao et al., 1995). Due to its inland location, high evaporation, and low and irregular rainfall, there are normally ‘nine droughts (including light, moderate, heavy and severe droughts21) in every ten years’ (Huachi Meteorological Station, 1965-2006) in Huachi County.

The frequent drought events occur mainly in spring, early summer and winter, particularly from May to June during the crucial growing period in Huachi

County. They are significant natural hazards that contribute to the vulnerability of local agriculture as well as impacting upon the livelihood of smallholder farmers.

Hence local farmers perceive drought events as the ‘Bottleneck drought’ for crop production.

Flood can be another severe natural hazard as evidenced by damage created by

20 Warwick (1975, p.29) defines drought as ‘a condition of moisture deficit sufficient to have an adverse effect on vegetation, animals, and man over a sizeable area’. There are three types of drought including meteorological drought, agricultural drought and hydrologic drought. Meteorological drought is ‘a period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of water to cause serious hydrologic imbalance in the affected area’ (Huschke, 1959, p.10). Agricultural drought is ‘a climatic excursion involving a shortage of precipitation sufficient to adversely affect crop production or range production’ (Rosenberg, 1979, p.25). Hydrologic drought is ‘a period of below average water content in streams, reservoirs, groundwater aquifers, lakes and soils’ (Vujica et al., 1977, p.27). 21 The four-levels of drought (light, moderate, heavy and severe) were defined in China’s National Standard of the Classification of Meteorological Drought (GB/T 20481-2006), which was released and implemented national widely in November 2006. It was developed by National Climate Center in cooperation with the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, the National Meteorological Centre, and the Department of Forecasting and Disaster Mitigation under the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). It is the first national standard published to monitor meteorological drought disasters and the first standard in China and around the world specifying the classification of drought. The indicators for these four levels of drought are: light drought: a period of 16-30 consecutive days in Spring, or 16-25 consecutive days in Summer, or 31-50 consecutive days in Autumn and Winter, with no rain; moderate drought: a period of 31-45 consecutive days in Spring, 26-35 consecutive days in Summer, or 51-70consecutive days in Autumn and Winter, with no rain; heavy drought: a period of 46-60 consecutive days in Spring, 36-45 consecutive days in Summer, or 71-90 consecutive days in Autumn and Winter, with no rain; severe drought: a period of more than 61 consecutive days in Spring, or more than 46 consecutive days in Summer, or more than 91 consecutive days in Autumn and Winter, with no rain.

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concentrated rainstorms principally during the rainy seasons in Huachi a few decades ago. Flooding was considered a major contributor to the massive soil erosion and land degradation. However, the frequency and severity of flood events have reduced significantly over the last two decades corresponding with a reduction in rainfall.

5.2.2 Changing climatic conditions

Over the last few decades, farmers in Huachi County have experienced and noticed changing climatic conditions (Table 5.4, Figure 5.5). The annual mean temperature (particularly in winter) has risen, while rainfall has been irregular but with a detected reduction from 1965 to 2006. There has been a significant reduction of annual and, in particular spring rainfall, and drought events have become more frequent (The Statistics Bureau of Huachi, 1949-2008).

Table 5.4 Variability of local precipitation and temperature from 1965-2006 (Data source: Huachi meteorological station, 1965-2006)

Annual Spring Summer Autumn Winter Precipitation Mean (mm) 474 79 273 110 12 Percentage of annual total 17 58 23 2 Trend (mm/year or season) -1.22 -0.67 -0.50 -0.60 0.13 Minimum (mm) 313 33 143 56 4 Maximum (mm) 663 123 398 289 25 Temperature Mean (°C) 8.5 9.6 20.7 8.2 -4.8 Trend (°C/year or season) 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.04 Minimum (°C) 7.1 7.8 17.5 6.7 -5.7 Maximum (°C) 9.6 11.2 21.1 9.9 -1.6

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Figure 5.5 The trend of local annual precipitation and local temperature from 1965-2006 (Data source: Huachi climate station)

These climatic changes observed at the local community level, which to a large extent resulted in prolonged drought and serious water shortages, have amplified the magnitude and frequency of already unfavorable conditions that local farmers have to deal with in relation to their dryland farming activities and livelihoods.

• A local warming trend

A warming trend has been observed in Huachi County over the last few decades

(1960s-2008). According to the Huachi County meteorological records, temperatures in this region have risen by over 1.5°C over the last 50 years (Table

5.4). Between 1965 and 2008, Huachi County experienced warming at a rate of

0.04°C per year. The rise in temperature was greater in the summer than in winter, putting extra stress on crops. The average annual temperature is expected to continue to increase in Huachi. The climate of Huachi County will thus be hotter and drier in the future than it is today (comments from interviews with Huachi

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County Meteorological officials).

• Rainfall reduction and more frequent drought

A downward trend in rainfall has also been witnessed during the same period of warming in Huachi (Table 5.4). Average annual rainfall has dropped by 6 per cent,

3 per cent and 9 per cent in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively (Figure 5.5).

There is also significant rainfall variability between years. However, the years which experience a below average rainfall level (about 474 mm) are becoming more and more frequent.

There were greater reductions of rainfall in spring and autumn. Spring rainfall, which constitutes 17 per cent of annual rainfall, has the greatest trend of reduction by 0.67mm/season during the period of 1965 to 2006. Autumn rainfall, which constitutes 23 per cent of annual rainfall, has reduced by 0.60mm/season. Winter is the only season which has shown a slight increase in rainfall by 0.13mm/season during the same period.

Between 1980 and 2008, over 15 drought events were reported in Huachi, including five light drought events in the years 1993, 1995, 2005, 2007 and 2008; three moderate drought events in the years 1980, 1987 and 1989; three heavy drought events in the years 1991, 2000 and 2004; and four severe drought events in the years 1982, 1986, 1997, and 2006. The long-term pattern of drought events in Huachi is likely to be ‘one moderate drought in every three years, one heavy drought in every five years, and one severe drought in every decade’.

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There has also been an increase in the frequency and intensity of drought events, particularly in the 1990s and the 2000s. Furthermore, extreme temperature events have become more severe and frequent in Huachi County over the last few decades. Both droughts and extreme events will continue to have adverse impacts on local agriculture and farmers’ livelihoods.

5.2.3 Farmers’ perception of climatic changes

Results of the semi-structured interviews with local individual farmers demonstrate farmers’ perception of climatic variability. Most farmers’ perception of climate change was in line with the statistical data from the county meteorological station. One question which was put to the farmers interviewed

(n=30) was ‘what changes in the climate do you feel now compared to 20 years ago in your community?’ More than 85 per cent thought that it had become warmer and drier. Ten per cent believed that it had become warmer but with more rainfall particularly in the rainy season (July, August and September), and five per cent thought that no change had occurred.

Local farmers also noticed the temperature rise, most obviously during the winter.

There has been almost no snow in the winters for the last 10 years.

Winter now is not as cold as it was when I was young. The thick woollen

clothes and hats that we wore before are not needed nowadays - Male,

51 years old.

According to local farmers, drought is the hazard that causes the most damage to

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dryland farming. Drought events, particularly the spring droughts, have occurred more frequently in recent years.

I remember there was much more rain in the 1980s than there is now.

The weather has become drier, especially in the first half of every year. It

is normal now to have one severe drought every three years –Male, 60

years old.

The participatory tool ‘historical record of climate trends and events’ was used in the farmers’ group discussion, presenting the same results. Table 5.5 represents farmers’ perception of climatic changes and trends over the last four decades. The key indicators of the climatic change record that was presented to local farmers included: (i) rainfall: annual, spring, rain season (July-September) and snow in winter; (ii) temperature; (iii) frequency of flood; and (iv) drought events.

They agreed that the temperature has increased continuously, with more observed warm winters in the 1990s and the 2000s. Spring rainfall reduced dramatically in the 1990s and the 2000s, while the rainfall received during the main rainy season

(July-September) has become more irregular and unpredictable, particularly over the last two decades. “Now the weather is more uncertain, particularly the rainfall in rainy season. It varies from year to year –Male, 35 years old.

Meanwhile, more severe drought events have been recorded in the last decade in

Huachi.

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Table 5.5 A representation of what the farmers remembered the weather from 1960s to 2000s (based on farmers group discussion in Fanzhuang Village of Huachi in 2009)

Rainfall Period Annual Spring Rainfall Rain season Snow Temperature Flood frequency Drought events (July-Sep.)

1960s Normal Frequent 1965

1970s Normal Frequent 1972

1980s Slight rise Less frequent 1982, 1986

Obvious rise, warm 1990s Less frequent 1991, 1997 winters

Significant rise, warm 2000s Rare 2000, 2003, 2006, 2008 winters

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5.3 Constraints to farming activities and farmers’ livelihood

5.3.1 ‘Problem tree analysis’

The participatory tool of ‘Problem tree analysis’ was used in the farmers’ group discussions to identify the key constraints to participants farming activities and their livelihood at a local community level. The core problem identified by local farmers was ‘poor agricultural productivity’. The problem tree analysis presents the systematic linkages of these key root causes to the core problem, as well as the consequences (Figure 5.6).

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Figure 5.6 ‘Problem tree analysis’ of farming and livelihood in Huachi (source: farmers’ group discussion, Huachi, 2009)

Threatened farmers’ More rural labourers livelihood left their farmlands Reduced income from Unsustainable farming activities agriculture Increased involvement in off-farm work

Affected local crop market

Long-term poverty Long term unsecured food supply Poor agricultural productivity

Consequences

Root causes Unfavorable factors of climatic conditions Unstable crop markets and prices Limited access to Declined land good crop markets High dependence productivity on rainfall More frequent and Poor condition of severe drought events transport Unproductive Lack of Soil erosion information Inefficient irrigation farming technology facilities Over-grazing

Poor vegetation Increased inputs for Cultivating on Ineffective new technology slopeland technology extension

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Figure 5.6 shows that unfavorable factors including poor climatic conditions, a decline in land productivity, as well as an unstable crop market and crop prices, are the three key factors behind the low agricultural productivity for local rural communities in Huachi. Each of these three key factors has root causes. In turn, the poor agricultural productivity has profound consequences on both farmers’ livelihoods and long-term agricultural production. The following sections will discuss in detail all these key elements as well as their relationships in local communities.

5.3.2 Dryland farming: high dependence on climatic conditions

Dryland agriculture is a very important sector in Huachi County. It greatly contributes to the county’s GDP (about 43 per cent) and employment (70 per cent of the total labour force). Furthermore, the majority (about 86 per cent) of the population are dependent on subsistence, rain-fed agriculture. In total, there are more than 57, 300 hectares of farmland, 56 per cent of which were still slope

(mainly gentle slopes) farmland by end of 2008.

For centuries, rain-fed agriculture has been dominant. More than 95 per cent of crop farming areas in Huachi are not irrigated. Maize and winter wheat are the two most produced and most consumed grain crops. Potato, soybean, millet

(including foxtail millet and pearl millet), and sorghum are also important cash crops, especially in the drier areas. Once household grain production is satisfied, cash crops and livestock forage are planted on the remaining land.

There has been a stable development of agriculture in Huachi County over the last

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few decades. The analysis of crop production (both in the farming areas and grain production) reveals two distinctive phases (Figure 5.7). There was a fluctuation between 1949 and 1980 when annual grain production varied from less than 9000 tonnes to more than 49,000 tonnes for the whole county. The area farmed fluctuated as well from year to year during that period. Since the 1980s, there was an overall upward trend towards both in terms of area farmed and annual grain production. However, after the late 1990s, the pace of growth in grain production has largely slowed down.

Figure 5.7 Annual and five-year running average of areas farmed and grain production over the last six decades in Huachi County (Source: Huachi Agricultural Bureau)

The government’s policies on local agriculture played an important role in the increase in farming areas and overall crop production after the 1980s. First of all, the ‘farmers’ household responsibility system’ was introduced in the early 1980s in Huachi, contracting specific plots of land to individual farmers for 10 to 30 years. This greatly provided smallholder farmers’ with confidence on their land tenure and contributed to a dramatic growth in local agricultural production.

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Secondly, since the late 1990s, terracing to convert slope farmland to leveled fields (mainly by manual labour at the very beginning) as well as rain-fed agriculture technology investments, have significantly improved the land productivity and permitted higher crop yields. After 2000, farming areas have increased rapidly, mainly due to large areas of terrace construction by local bulldozer operators.

Irregular temporal rainfall, increasing temperature and frequent droughts have been detected in last few decades and have already had an impact on the agricultural production in the local county area (Bai, 2000). Both the increases in farming areas and improvement of agricultural technology and farmland have been largely offset by unfavourable climatic conditions.

Without any adaptation to the increasing trends in climate change induced drought, this typical agricultural area will continue to suffer, both in the short and long- term. Water availability is a decisive factor influencing land productivity in

Huachi. For instance, severe drought events in the years 1982, 1986, 1991, 1997,

2000, 2002, 2004 and 2006, reduced crop production by 30-70 per cent of the average (interviews with the Huachi Agricultural Bureau) and reduced farmer’s income by 30-40 per cent (household interviews). Moreover, the greater reliance that smallholder farmers have on rain-fed agriculture, the more serious the impacts could be due to the uncertainty of the climate variability.

Before moving to the details of vulnerabilities of rain-fed farming to the changing climatic conditions in Huachi, it is necessary to examine other socio-economic

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factors that also contribute to the poor agricultural productivity and the farmers’ vulnerable livelihood. Adger (2006) argues that both climatic factors and non- climatic factors are essential when examining farmers’ vulnerabilities and their responses to climate change. The following sections include the socio-economic factors that affect farmers’ livelihood strategies.

5.3.3 Declined land productivity

The decline in land productivity is another factor contributing to the poor agricultural productivity in Huachi. As identified by local farmers, there are several reasons for the declining land productivity, which mainly relate to severe soil erosion and unproductive farming technology.

Soil erosion and degraded land productivity

Land productivity has stagnated under the force of massive soil erosion in Huachi, particularly over the past few decades. As mentioned in Section 5.2.1, more than half of the land (about 1600km2) in Huachi is now suffering from different levels of soil erosion. Consequently, intensive soil erosion has resulted in land degradation followed by declining land productivity (Bai et al., 2008). The results from the field study indicate that soil erosion in Huachi is mainly induced by human activities of irrational land use, including cultivation of slopeland and over-grazing, resulting in low vegetative cover.

As discussed in Chapter 4, many studies indicate that cultivation of slopeland produces extensive soil erosion (Liu, 1997; Shi & Shao, 2000; Chen et al., 2007).

Until 2009, the area of slopeland still used for farming activities was about 32,000

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ha, which was 56 per cent of the total area of farmland in Huachi (Figure 5.8).

More than 90 per cent of the cultivated slopeland was mainly gentle slopeland

(10-25 degrees), as most steep slopeland (more than 25 degrees) had been retired for planting trees and grasses for conservation purposes. A practical measure to control soil erosion and improve land productivity was to convert the gentle slopeland under cultivation to terraced level farmland.

Figure 5.8 Cultivation on the slopeland in a local community in Huachi (Photo: from field survey in Zhoujiagou watershed in Huachi, 2009)

Free grazing was another major cause of severe soil erosion in Huachi. In early

1999, more than 80 per cent of households were raising sheep, with an average of

50-60 sheep per household. Livestock farming was highly dependent on free grazing on hills and natural grasslands at that time, which resulted in severe degradation to both land and vegetation. In response, the local government implemented grazing bans over the whole county in early 2000s. Strict grazing bans on grazing and the regeneration of retired fragile mountains/hills and marginal land have dramatically reduced livestock farming in Huachi County.

Under the current pen feeding policy of the Huachi government, each household

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is allowed to have a maximum of only 15 sheep.

The grazing ban also shifted livestock raising from free grazing to pen feeding, reducing the pressure on local grasslands. In order to have enough fodder for pen feeding sheep, native grass and alfalfa have been planted on farmers’ retired croplands and on barren marginal land. Alfalfa can regrow quickly after harvesting, which can take place 2-3 times each year, and its deep root can not only stop soil erosion but also capture the water from the deep soil layer during dry season. While numbers of sheep kept by each household have been reduced, the Huachi County government provided technical support and new species of sheep to local individual farmers, to increase the potential income from each animal.

Furthermore, the poor vegetation cover in Huachi also contributed to a decline in land productivity. Although, the overall coverage of forest and grassland has increased in last decade (refer to Section 5.2.1), the vegetation cover over the county is still poor. Poor vegetation associated with aggressive cultivation accelerates the process of soil erosion, eventually causing arable land to become unproductive through the massive loss of soil (Jiang et al., 2003). The farmers interviewed commented that local sandstorms happened due to soil erosion and poor vegetation cover.

The sand storms were really serious (about 10-15 times/years) about two

or three decades ago in our village, as there was hardly vegetation at that

time. Although now the number of sandstorms has fallen to about 3-5 per

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year, the impacts of sandstorms on plants and our life are still bad… I

think we need more trees and grasses to stop the sandstorms- Male, 60

years old.

Farming technology and farmland input

Traditional agricultural techniques still dominate most areas of Huachi.

Traditional dryland farming techniques are used, including planting and cultivating techniques (e.g. deep plowing and mulching), crop rotation (e.g. three harvests in two years), and using animal and human power instead of machinery.

However, many of these traditional practices have been assessed as being inefficient.

For example, the majority of local farmers still plow using cattle or donkeys and iron tools (Figure 5.9). It’s an age-old farming technique that has been used by people since the Warring States Period22 on the Loess Plateau (Gong et al., 2003).

It is a suitable technique for plowing on small size farmland and on the slopeland in local areas. However, it is highly labour intensive.

In contrast, some modern farming machines, like small ploughs (Figure 5.10), have been introduced particularly on terraced land. Such machines have provided great savings in both labour and time. Nevertheless, based on the interviews, only very small numbers (less than 10 per cent) of rural households can afford such

22 The Warring States Period, also known as the Era of Warring States, or the Warring Kingdoms period, covers the Iron age period from 476 BC to the reunification of China under the Qin Dynasty in 221 BC. During the Warring States Period, iron became much more widespread than before, for both military and civil tools in agriculture and handicrafts. Agriculture, industry and economy developed during that period. Some tools like iron hoes and axes were widely used in farming.

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machinery. Some farmers commented that they could hire a plough from their neighbors who owned them, but only if they were available. Sometimes, it was difficult as there were limited machines available in the community, as farmers all farmed at the same period. More details of the implications of new farming technology and techniques to improve local dryland farming productivity are discussed in Chapter 6 ‘Vulnerability to climate change and farmers’ responses’.

Figure 5.9 Plowing by donkey on the farmland in Huachi (Photo: from field survey in Zhoujiagou watershed in Huachi, 2009)

Figure 5.10 The small plough machine used by some farmers for farming in Huachi (Photo: from field survey in Zhoujiagou watershed in Huachi, 2009)

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5.3.4 Unstable crop markets and prices

Local farmers harvest food from both grain and cash crops, and sell surpluses in local markets. It happens in two ways: farmers transport their crops to local markets to sell to individual first-time buyers at a normal market price; or individual first-time buyers will come to the village to collect the crops, but at a lower price than the market price. Farmers will decide which way to sell their products based on their availability of time, labour and transport.

Farmers interviewed commented that they recognized that crop prices at the local market changed all the time. However, the majority of them have limited access to sufficient and detailed market information before they choose which crop to plant.

Unstable crop markets, as well as crop prices, are thus making farmers’ income uncertain. Therefore, enhancing farmers’ access to market information could help to ensure they make better decisions and plant the right crops with higher market values. More details regarding farmers’ access to the crop market will be further discussed in Chapter 7.

5.3.5 Consequence on farmers’ livelihood

People living in the arid Loess Plateau are caught in a poverty trap (Rozelle et al.,

1997), and Huachi County is no exception. Currently, more than 86 per cent of the population lives in rural communities. In 2008, the average annual income per capita of local smallholder farmers was only 2300 Yuan RMB23 (equivalent to

USD 365). Moreover, more than 41 per cent of the rural households were even under the 2008 average income level.

23 Currency exchange rate: 1USD=6.3 Yuan RMB

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Based on livelihood status, farmers in Huachi County can be classified into two general categories. The first category consists of farmer households who have large areas of high quality farmland (e.g. terrace and gentle slope farmland) and sufficient labour force24, that intensively use technologies such as improved seeds, fertilisers and mechanisation, as well as having access to market information and financial support. Annual incomes per capita of more than 4000 Yuan RMB (=

USD635) are common for this category of farmers.

The far greater majority of smallholder farmers in Huachi, however, belong to the second category. These farmers have small and/or poor quality land holdings (e.g. steep slope farmland), use basic and labour intensive farming methods, and lack resources. Most of them are among the low-income farmers’ group, whose annual income is under the average.

The income source of local farmers’ has shifted from one based entirely on subsistence farming activities to a mixed source, where both on-farm and off-farm activities assume an important role (Li, 2000c). Currently, local farmers source income from farming, livestock raising, off-farm activities and other activities (i.e. subsidies, property income and social work).

The livelihood of local smallholder farmers has improved gradually over last few decades in Huachi County (Figure 5.11a). This occurred particularly between the years 1995 to 2008, when the annual income per capita for local smallholder

24 Since the introduction of China’s Family Planning Policy (also known as the one-child policy) in the late 1970s, there has been an obvious trend towards smaller families both in rural and urban areas (Ding & Hesketh, 2006). The rural household in Huachi County has on average 4-5 family members and at most 3 labourers.

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farmers doubled, from 1166 Yuan RMB per capita per year (USD 185) to 3043

Yuan RMB per capita per year (USD483). The increased income greatly contributed to poverty reduction as well as to the improved livelihood of local individual farmers. However, changes in farming practices contributed little to this overall increase in total income.

The structure of local smallholder farmers’ income sources has been reshaped

(Figure 5.11b) as a result of many factors. In the late 1980s, farming was the major source of farmers’ income (varying from USD 116 to 227 per capita per year) making up 60-70 per cent of their total annual income. However, over the last two decades, agricultural income for individual farmers has, if not declined, largely stagnated. As presented in the problem tree, the stagnation of agricultural income is mainly due to reduced farming productivity affected by climatic stressors, an unstable crop market price, declined land productivity, as well as increased agricultural production inputs including technology, fertilizer, farming materials, and irrigation water. As a consequence, the proportion of agricultural income to farmers’ total income has decreased by more than 70 per cent (USD

227) in 1997 to only 30 per cent (USD 148) in 2008.

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Figure 5.11 (a) Huachi County’s smallholder farmers’ income in the last two decades: the trend of annual income per capita; (b) the changes of percentage of each income source (Source: census of 60 rural households by Huachi Bureau of Statistics, 1995 to 2008)

Income levels from raising livestock in Huachi have also fluctuated throughout the last two decades (Figure 5.11 a and b). Before 1998, livestock raising was an important source of income besides agriculture, which contributed an average of

USD 42 per capita per year, equivalent to 20 per cent of an individual farmers’ annual income. The average number of livestock (mainly goats) for each individual household was as many as 50-60 at that time. However, the large

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number of livestock, particularly goats, were free grazing, which resulted in inevitable vegetation degradation and long-term land deterioration.

From 1999, the local government issued a grazing ban over all of Huachi County, which resulted in a dramatic decrease in the numbers of goats kept by individual farmers. The ban permitted a maximum of 15 sheep for each individual farmer, which led to a temporary cut in farmer’s livestock raising income. Following the grazing ban, the local government introduced a sustainable livestock development scheme for individual smallholder farmers, which included high-yield sheep species rather than goats, forage (mainly alfalfa) planting, feeding pens, as well as technology training sessions for individual farmers. Since 2002, this scheme has successfully resulted in a large increase in livestock income for local farmers

(from less than USD19 to more than USD90 per capita per year). This occurred despite the reduction in the number of sheep.

On the other hand, the rise of off-farm employment income of local farmers (from only USD6 per capita per year in 1995 to more than USD147 per capita per year in 2008) was tremendous. In Huachi, off-farm employment has become the second largest component of local farmers’ income (after agriculture) corresponding with the increase of labour migration to big cities that began in the late 1990s. If this trend continues, and more and more rural labourers become involved with off-farm industries, this could become a central concern of sustainable agricultural development. Where young rural labourers (mainly aged

20-35) are employed part-time or full-time in off-farm industries in larger cities

(such as construction, transportation, and restaurants), they leave farming

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activities and decisions to the elderly, women and children left behind to manage the farm. More details of impacts of local farmers’ increased off-farm employment on farmers’ livelihood and agricultural sustainability will be further discussed in the Chapter 7.

5.4 Chapter Summary

This chapter presents both climate data and interview data collected from the local level in Huachi. In general, Huachi County is a typical gullied region of the Loess

Plateau, with dense deep gullies and serious soil erosion. The annual mean precipitation varies from 320mm to 510mm, with an annual mean temperature of

7 to 8 °C. The frequent and prolonged drought events are significant natural hazards to local dryland farming activities and thus farmers’ livelihoods.

A trend of raising annual mean temperature, with reducing rainfall, has been detected in Huachi for the period 1965 to 2006. This climatic variability has been observed at the local community level, and to a large extent has resulted in more severe and frequent drought events and serious water shortages. This has amplified the magnitude and frequency of the already unfavorable conditions that local farmers have to deal with in relation to their dryland farming activities and consequently their livelihoods. Results of farmers’ interviews demonstrated that their perception of climate change was in line with the statistical meteorological record.

The constraints on existing farming activities have been identified using a

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‘problem tree analysis’ with the local community. Poor agricultural productivity is considered to be the core problem constraining the development of farmers’ livelihoods. Unfavourable factors including climatic conditions, declined land productivity, as well as unstable crop markets and crop prices, were the three key physical, social and economic factors behind the low agricultural productivity for local rural communities in Huachi.

In conclusion, the information about farmers’ social and economic conditions in

Huachi can serve as the basis for understanding their emerging vulnerabilities to the climate change. Together with the climatic conditions, all these factors will further increase farmers’ exposure and sensitivity to the changing climate in the future. Farmers’ responses to cope with or adjust to the adverse impacts of climate change become critical to sustain their farming and livelihood. More details regarding farmers’ current and future vulnerability, as well as adaptation practice and strategies in Huachi, are included in the following chapter.

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CHAPTER SIX: LOCAL EMERGING

VULNERABILITIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND

ADAPTIVE RESPONSES

6.1 Vulnerability of farming activities and rural livelihood

In Huachi County, a combination of changing climatic conditions and farmers’ other socio-economic changes, discussed in the previous chapter, has increased the exposure-sensitivity of the community to climatic risks. The major community-identified exposure-sensitivities are associated with dryland farming activities, with particular stresses on the natural resources of water and land. This chapter focuses on vulnerabilities related directly or indirectly to dryland farming and the livelihoods of local smallholder farmers. In addition, farmers’ responses to cope with these vulnerabilities are explored and analyzed at the local community level.

6.1.1 Vulnerability of farming activities to climate change

Climate variability has been detected at the local level in Huachi. The farms have been exposed to a steady rise in temperature and a decrease in rainfall for the past

40 years. There has also been a significant reduction of annual and, in particular spring rainfall; drought events have also become more frequent. The climatic variability to a large extent has resulted in more severe and frequent drought events as well as serious water scarcity. Therefore climate change unfortunately makes local dryland farming activities even more sensitive and vulnerable.

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Our farming is totally dependent on the climate. If the weather is

unfavorable, we will harvest nothing from the land - male, 71 years old.

Water resources, for instance, are highly sensitive to variations in climate.

Changes in water availability will then further impact the land, ecosystems, farming and any rural livelihood. Land degradation and soil erosion is mainly due to human activities, as shown in previous chapters, and are serious problems for local communities and dryland farming on the Plateau. However, the quality and productivity of land will be further reduced by the impacts of climate change.

Table 6.1 lists the identified vulnerabilities of dryland farming activities to the impacts of the current and future climate change at local community level, in terms of farming, water and land use.

Water and land use affected by climatic variability

The persistent decrease in rainfall has enhanced the water shortage for both drinking and farming purposes at the local community level. Farmers collect rainwater for family and livestock drinking water. Most households have family rainwater cisterns to gather and store rainwater. Some households who live near the bottom of deep gullies rely on water that is collected from naturally formed water pools. As commented by local farmers, many of these natural water pools have disappeared in last few decades due to lower rainfall and warmer weather.

Water scarcity will eventually result in serious water use conflicts, as individual farmers compete for limited water resources, and particularly water for human consumption.

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Table 6.1 Vulnerabilities of dryland farming activities to impacts of climate change and other factors in Huachi County Vulnerability Climatic drivers Other socio-economic factors Water · Severe and long-term · Persistent decrease in rainfall and/or · High dependence on single vulnerable water availability water shortage threatens increase in temperature source (rainwater) drinking water and food · More variable rainfall and runoff security · More frequent drought events · More frequent drought · Increase in severe drought events · High dependence on dryland subsistent farming events that increase loss (rain-fed farming) of crops, and income · Conflict among farmers · Change in timing of rainfall and water · Inequitable access to water for water availability · Insufficient investment in rural development (e.g. drinking water system) Land use · Land degradation and · Semi-arid climate · Poor vegetation cover soil erosion · Persistent decrease in rainfall and increased · Poor, erodible soils aridity · Inability of land management system to adapt to · Increase in climate variability, including climate variations more frequent drought events · Intensive use of land · Extreme weather events, like heavy rainstorm in rainy season · Drought and high temperature results in enhanced soil evaporation Dryland · Reduced crop yields · Persistent and severe decrease in rainfall, · Poor land productivity farming (e.g. winter wheat, particularly in spring · Low drought resistance of certain crops and activities maize, soybean, potato, · More variable rainfall in amount and timing varieties and millet) · Restricted irrigation · Delayed sowing or · Irregular and variable rainfall · Inability of farming management system to adapt harvest dates to climate variations · Increase aridity and drought events · Increased pests and · Increased temperature resulting in warmer · Poor farming management technology and skills diseases winters

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It was also found that the land degradation and soil erosion have been accelerated by the persistent decrease in rainfall and increased aridity. The more frequent drought events and high temperatures have enhanced soil evaporation, which eventually contributes to soil erosion. Extreme weather events, like heavy rainstorms during summer, when associated with poor vegetation cover and erodible soil, triggers severe soil erosion.

More frequent drought events and reduced rainfall, on the other hand, have intensified individual farmers’ vulnerability due to loss of crop yields and farm income. Details of vulnerabilities of dryland farming to climate change will be discussed in the following section.

Vulnerability of dryland farming to climate change

Dryland farming is highly sensitive to climatic variations in Huachi, as shown in

Table 6.1. The observed climate change of decreased annual rainfall, disappearing spring rainfall, warmer temperatures, as well as more frequent drought events, are resulting in reduced crop yields and lowered agricultural productivity.

Interviews with farmers revealed that water deficits during regrowth, elongation and head-forming periods of winter wheat, mainly in the spring, will result in a reduction in yield of 50-70 per cent on slopeland and 30-40 per cent on terraces.

Maize that is sown in spring particularly needs rainfall at the right time. If there’s no rain in April, the land is too dry to sow. If the farmer waits until rain in May, the maize will not mature for harvesting before the frost comes. A spring drought can reduce the yield of maize by 40-50 per cent on slopeland, and 20-30 per cent

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on terraces. Winters with warmer temperatures and no snow does not kill the insects that affect wheat. This increases the vulnerability of winter wheat as well.

It can be concluded that the changing climatic conditions observed in Huachi, to a large extent, have constrained farming activities and reduced crop yields. Dryland farming at the local community level has been threatened by climatic stressors, and will be further affected by future trends in local climate change. It is also concluded that the vulnerability of farming activities will have negative impacts on local individual farmers’ livelihoods, including the collapse of the rural farming production system, failure of small farms, and the declining and more variable net farm income.

6.1.2 Vulnerability of farmers’ livelihood to climate change

Climate change has already affected farmers’ livelihoods in Huachi. Farming practices in Huachi include the production of maize, soybean, potato, and livestock husbandry. Individual smallholder farmers, particularly the poorer farmers whose livelihoods are still highly dependent on agriculture, are suffering the most from climate change manifested in rising temperatures, and erratic but overall declining rainfall. Before the late 1990s, farmers’ livelihoods were almost exclusively agriculture-based. Whilst farmers have adopted a more diversified livelihood (working off-farm) during the last 20 years, agriculture is still important for their family.

Farmers’ crops were destroyed by lack of water through the frequent droughts events and declining rainfall. Their livelihood has been greatly constrained by

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reduced farm income. Case One presents a poor household from Huachi whose livelihood has been greatly affected by climate change. It can be drawn from this case that climate changes spells misfortune for farmers’ livelihoods and their agriculture.

Case One: climate change, a burden to a poor household

Mr. He is a 71 year-old farmer in Jiangyuan Village in Huachi. He talked about his and his family’s livelihood that has been greatly affected by the change in climate. His family has five family members, his son and his son’s wife, and two grandsons, who are now living together in the village. His family is among the poorer group in his village. He noticed that the rains became less and less during the past few decades, which greatly contributed to his family’s poor crop harvests. “The severe drought in 2006 lasted nearly the whole spring and summer. The total 1.5 ha wheat and maize planted on slopelands all died. We harvested almost nothing. We had some grain stored from previous years, otherwise we would have no food due to the droughts”.

He also mentioned that his two grandsons tried to find some off-farm jobs in nearby cities to earn some income to support the whole family, but only found some causal jobs without good pay. Now both of them are helping with the farm work.

“Drinking water will be a big problem if the dry weather continues. We have 3 water cisterns, each 20m3, to collect and store water. In the past, there was no problem at all to fill these cisterns. But, we find that in these recent years, rains become less and sometimes it is hard to fill all these cisterns. In that case, we need to spend more to purchase water from nearby villages or cities for drinking”.

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6.2 Farmers’ Response to Climate Change Impacts

Given the potentially large and direct impact that changing exposure-sensitivities could have on crop yield, adaptation will be essential to limit losses and adverse impacts on agriculture (Reilly & Schimmelpfennig, 1999; Easterling, 1996; FAO,

2007). In response to the changing exposure-sensitivities, local smallholder farmers have managed to adopt certain approaches in their farming practice.

The local adaptation strategies in Huachi include: the use of drought resilient crops; the change in land use and farming practices; and the use of dryland (water saving) farming techniques such as film mulching, rainwater harvesting, as well as small-scale irrigation. Local farmers indicated that all the above strategies, to some extent, improve the resilience of their dryland farming activities to the adverse effects of a changing climate.

6.2.1 Crop pattern changes

According to the household interviews, the crop pattern of the local farming system at the time of the interviews (2009) has been reshaped to become more diverse, compared with the system 20 years ago (Figure 6.1). Local farmers mainly planted millet (about 40 per cent of total land areas) and winter wheat

(about 34 per cent of total land areas) as grain crops for self-consumption, with maize being the only cash crop used to generate household income in the 1980s.

More than 95 per cent of the crops were planted on slopeland at that time, which resulted in poor land productivity per hectare, severe soil erosion, and high vulnerability to drought events.

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Figure 6.1 Average percentages of the main crop planting areas for farmer households (n= 35) in the 1980s and 2008 (Source: Huachi household survey, 2009)

There has been a major shift in crop selection by farmers since the introduction of land retirement and terracing. Nowadays, a variety of crops are planted on the land including many more cash crops, such as soybeans, potatoes, and vegetables.

Enabled by the higher productivity of the terraced land, farmers have reduced their plantings of winter wheat and increased plantings of cash crops which increase agricultural income through higher yields per hectare.

It was also found from interviews that farmers’ decisions were based on drought resilience as well as on economic influences, such as market prices and yields.

Table 6.2 shows the ranking for drought resistance for the main crops on the

Loess Plateau. Furthermore, new species of crops, such as high drought resistant winter wheat and maize species were tested and extended in the local community.

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Table 6.2 Drought resistance of the main crops on the Loess Plateau (Source: Hageback et al., 2005 and Huachi household survey, 2009) Crops planted on Crops planted on slopeland Crops planted on terraces Ranking slopeland (Hageback et (Huachi household survey, (Huachi household survey, al., 2005) 2009) 2009) 1 Millet Millet Maize with mulching 2 Soybean Potatoes Soybean 3 Potatoes Soybean Potatoes 4 Maize Maize without mulching Maize without mulching 5 Winter wheat Winter wheat Winter wheat 6 - Vegetables

Note: Ranking of 1 is the most drought resistant and 6 is the least drought resistant.

Millet was previously favoured, as it showed drought resistance. However, due to its low productivity (600kg/ha on slopeland) it is no longer planted on terraces.

Although millet has the highest drought resistance of any crop, the yield is

still very low due to poor land and water conditions, particularly when

there’s a severe drought – Lishui Tang (Female, 49 years old).

Soybeans are currently planted on more than 30 per cent of individual farmers’ land. It has become a major cash crop for local smallholder farmers, not only because of its high market price (4.0 RMB/kg), but also because of its high drought resistance. Maize with mulching, planted on terraced land, is considered the most resilient to drought by local farmers and occupies about 20 per cent of terraced land. However, local farmers commented that there has been an increased input of farming materials (i.e. plastic film for mulching) by around 3000

RMB/ha.

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According to expected growing conditions, local farmers also use their traditional knowledge and experience to decide what crops to plant and where to plant them.

Particular land types have come to be associated with particular crops under certain weather conditions. Table 6.3 shows what crops were chosen and planted by local farmers on certain types of lands due to different climatic conditions, and compares the 1980s with the present.

Table 6.3 Crops planted by farmers on different land types according to expected weather conditions in the 1980s and the 2000s

Crops planted Periods Farmland types In drier growing seasons In wetter growing seasons

1980s Steep Slopeland1 Millet, Sorghum2 Maize

Gentle Slopeland Maize Winter wheat, maize

2000s Gentle Slopeland Millet Maize, potato

Terrace Maize, soybean Maize, soybean, winter wheat, vegetables

Note: 1Before the 1980s, more than 90 per cent of the farmers’ land was slopeland, including steep slopeland (15-25 degrees) and gentle slopeland (less than 15 degrees). With the GFG program and the World Bank program, all farmers’ steep slopeland was retired to plant trees and shrubs. Additionally, a portion of their gentle slopeland was converted to level terraces. 2 The order of the crops indicates the priority of crops that farmers choose to plant, based on the availability of land.

Before the 1980s, farmers planted mainly on two types of slopeland: gentle and steep. Different types of crops were planted on the same types of land but in different weather conditions (Table 6.3). For instance, in drier growing seasons, farmers chose to plant millet and sorghum which were much more resilient than other crops on the steep slopeland. But in wetter growing seasons, maize was planted on the steep slopeland instead. On the gentle slopeland, which has a higher productivity, farmers preferred to plant winter wheat regardless of whether the season was drier or wetter.

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Nowadays, with the development of terracing, farmers have more options in terms of crop planting patterns. In drier growing seasons, farmers plant millet on the slopeland (mainly on gentle slopeland), but plant maize and soybean on the terraces (Table 6.3). Based on their experience, the farmers consider millet to be more resilient to drought than other crops on slopeland. Terraces being a more productive land type due to their water and fertilizer conservation capability, tend to be reserved for higher market value crops (i.e. maize, soybean). In contrast, during wetter growing seasons, farmers plant maize rather than millet on slopeland as under these conditions, the yield of maize is far more than millet.

Moreover, farmers increase the planting area of crops like potato and winter wheat, which grow better in the wetter seasons.

6.2.2 Land use change: terracing

Terracing aims to improve smallholder farmers’ agricultural productivity (Figure

6.2). Arable land on suitable gentle slopeland has been converted into terraces since the late 1990s in Huachi, as cultivation on slopeland can lead to erosion of

0.43 cm and 48 tonne per hectare of fertile topsoil (Wei et al., 2000). Terracing increases the soil moisture and nutrient use efficiencies (Li et al., 2004), which effectively enhance a crops’ resilience to droughts, and consequently increases crop yield (Liu et al., 2010). Terracing has been promoted throughout the whole county, with financial support from government and using the farmers’ own labour.

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Figure 6.2 (a) Converting suitable slopeland into level terracing by manual labour and bulldozer (photo source: field survey by author in Huachi County, 2009)

Figure 6.2 (b) large areas of level terrace for rainfed farming in Huachi in 2009 (photo source: field survey by author in Huachi County, 2009)

Technical aspects of terracing

The technical design of the terrace is shown as Figure 6.3. Two types of slopeland with slopeland angle of ‘5-10 degrees’ and ‘10-15 degrees’ are converted to level terrace. Table 6.4 shows the key dimensional elements of terracing.

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Figure 6.3 Terrace cross-section showing dimensional elements (Source: developed based on the Master-plan of terracing program in Huachi County, 2009)

Table 6.4 Design guidelines for terraces in Huachi County (Source: Huachi County Government, 2009) Slopeland Height of Terrace Terrace Slopeland Terrace lip terrace riser riser surface surface Top lip Down lip

θ (°) H (m) α B (m) Bx (m) d (m) D (m) 5 1.4 75 18 18.5 0.3 0.69 1.58 75 18 18.9 0.3 0.69 10 1.76 75 10 10.2 0.3 0.69 2.12 70 12 12.3 0.3 0.72 2.47 70 14 14.5 0.3 0.72 15 2.14 70 8 8.5 0.3 0.72 2.68 70 10 10.9 0.3 0.72 3.22 70 12 13.6 0.3 0.72 2.91 70 8 9.5 0.3 0.72

Terrace design in Huachi is based on a standard of flood resistance of a one in 20 year rainstorm for a maximum of 3 to 6 hours. The amount of rainwater in such a rainstorm in the Loess Plateau area is shown in Table 6.5. The recommended height of a terrace lip (h) should be no less than 30cm, top width of terrace lip (d)

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should be 30cm, and with 65-85 degree of terrace riser (α). However, based on household interviews, only 30-40 per cent of farmers’ current terraces that were converted in recent years meet the technical standard. The others were created manually many years ago and are not in good condition.

Table 6.5 Estimated amount of rainwater in once in 10 years, and once in 20 years rainstorms in the Loess Plateau (source: Gansu water resource and hydrological series)

Rainstorm frequency Rainwater in 3 hours (mm) Rainwater in 6 hours (mm)

On in 10 years (10%) 59.6 94.6

On in 20 years (5%) 73.5 115.5

SWOT analysis of terracing adaptations in response to changing exposure- sensitivity

The participatory tool of SWOT analysis (strength-weakness-opportunity-threat) was implemented in the semi-structured interviews and group discussions in order to identify the ability of terracing to cope with changing climatic exposure- sensitivities at a local community level. Table 6.6 represents the results of SWOT analysis of terracing activities in Huachi.

Table 6.6 SWOT analysis of terracing in coping with climatic stressors in Huachi

Strengths Weaknesses

• Conserves soil and water of rain-fed • Only gentle slopeland (less than 25 farmlands degrees) can be terraced • Enhances crops’ resilience to drought • Relative land areas are reduced when • Increases crop yields converting from slope to terrace • Increases farmers’ income from • Extra cost of terracing by bulldozer farming • Unequal ability of local individual • Enables a shift from labour intensive farmers to terrace their slopelands farming to a more efficient farming • Improves roads that connect terraces

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Opportunities Threats

• Financial support from local • Bad condition of some old and government for terracing manual converted terrace • Extension and dissemination for • Reduced terrace land productivity if drought resilient farming technology, there’s unsustainable terrace particularly on terrace, by local management and maintenance government, such as film mulching for maize, potato

• Strengths of terracing in coping with climatic stressors

The building of level terraces has enhanced water infiltration, raised the rainfall utilization rate, raised land quality and crop yields, and conserved soil and water

(Deng et al., 2000; 2006). It has been evaluated that there is no surface runoff or soil losses generated on level terraces when the daily rainfall is between 50-100 mm (Meng, 1996).

The results of an experiment done by the Huachi Water Resource and Soil

Conservation Bureau on terraced test plots indicated the same results: the detected maximum daily rainfall on the 2 July 2005 was 70.6mm; on the test terrace plot with terrace lip height of 30cm and zero degree level angle, 100 per cent of rainwater was captured and no soil erosion occurred on the test terrace.

Converting slopeland to level terrace has shifted our farmland from the

poor condition of ‘losing water, soil and land fertilization’ to a condition in

which it is able to ‘conserve water, soil and land fertilization’ – Female, 35

years old.

As a result, there were substantial increases of yields of all crops on the terraced land compared to yields on slopeland in Huachi: winter wheat (300 per cent),

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maize without mulching (146 per cent), soybean (60 per cent) and potato (167 per cent) (Table 6.7). The average yield of maize has increased in some areas from

2.25 tonnes per hectare on gentle slopeland to 5.55 tonnes per hectare on converted terrace, and potato yields from 4.5 to 12 tonnes per hectare.

Before land terracing, we farmed on more than four hectares of slopeland

in total. We terraced one-third of our gentle slopeland a few years ago and

returned the leftover steep slopeland to forests and grassland. But,

nowadays we harvest more from a reduced proportion of planted land (only

one-third) than before – Male, 41 years old.

Furthermore, the cropping system on terraced land shows increased resilience to drought. In 2006 the whole county experienced a severe drought in Huachi. Data on crop yields (Table 6.7) during this period indicate that wheat, maize, soybean and potatoes grown on terraced land were more resilient to drought than those grown on slopeland.

The level terrace can capture rainwater and then store water in soil. As a

result, the crops planted on terraces were more resilient to drought. For

instance, the severe drought in the spring of 2006 only caused 30-40 per

cent reduction of winter wheat and maize yields on terraces, which would

be more than 60 per cent if planted on slopeland…We are now not that

desperate even if there was a drought – Male, 45 years old.

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Table 6.7 Market price, average yield and crop resilience to drought on slopeland and terraced land in Huachi County (Source: Huachi household survey, 2009)

Yield change percentage in Price a Yield (kg/ha) Crops 2006 due to drought (RMB/kg) Slopeland Terrace Slopeland Terrace Winter wheat 0.8 750 3000 - 60 - 40 Maize (no plastic 1.2 2250 5550 - 50 - 40 film mulching) Maize (RMb film 1.2 - 7500 - - 25 mulching) Maize (DRM c film 1.2 - 10500 - - 15 mulching) Soybean 4.0 1875 3000 - 50 - 35 Potato 0.8 4500 12000 - 50 - 30 Millet 3.6 600 - - 35 - Alfalfa d (dried) 1.6 3750 - - 40 -

Note: a the price is based on local market prices for 2009; b RM: alternating ridges and furrows, only the ridge mulched with plastic film, and film mulching is only suitable for terraces not slopeland; c DRM: double ridges (big one and small one) and the furrow, all mulched by one whole plastic film; d alfalfa is an important fodder plant in Huachi County.

The terracing of slopeland has also resulted in a significant shift from labour intensive farming to a more efficient farming system. For instance, simple farming machines are now used, such as small-size land cultivators and seeding machines that can be used on level cropland. To some extent, this has freed up farmers’ on-farm labour and reallocated the labour off the farm into the wage earning or self-employed labour market (Uchida et al., 2007).

Additionally, local farmers mentioned that the roads and path access to their land has been improved since terrace construction. Better road conditions enable small- size tractors or bullock-carts to transport crops when harvesting. This requires less family labour.

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Previously, we needed to carry our wheat or maize manually from our land,

as there were no roads connecting slopeland. It was really hard work at that

time - Female, 35 years old.

• Weaknesses of terracing

There is a limitation for the extension of terracing, because only gentle slopeland

(less than 25 degree) can be terraced. Ding et al. (2006a) conclude that terracing on steep slopeland of more than 25 degrees would result in intensified soil erosion rather than soil conservation. It is also declared in the Forest Law of the People’s

Republic of China 1998 that slopeland with more than 25 degrees should be planted with trees, shrubs or grass to prevent land degradation (NDRC, 1998).

Therefore, poorer farmers whose farmlands were mainly steep slopelands could not convert much of their land to terraces. This further enhanced their vulnerability to more frequent droughts and reduced rainfall.

On the other hand, relative land areas are reduced when land is converted from slopeland to terrace. This is due to the engineering design of terracing (Figure

6.3). The percentage of reduced farmland varies from 2 per cent to 12 per cent based on the incline of the slopelands from 5 to 15 degrees, respectively (Huachi

County Government, 2009). Terracing was thus difficult for farmers to accept before they saw the benefits, particularly for those who had only a small amount of farmland. However, more farmers became willing to terrace their farmlands when they witnessed up to a doubling of crop yields on land terraced by other farmers.

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As a farmer, my whole life is based on my land. I thought terracing would

cut the amount of my land so I refused. But when I saw that my neighbour

harvested 2 or 3 times more yields from the terrace, I knew that I was

wrong… therefore I terraced one hectare of gentle slopelands –Male, 45

years old.

The economic cost of terracing is considered to be a significant constraint for farmers. Hiring a bulldozer to convert slopeland into terraces costs as much as

RMB 9 000 to 12 000 Yuan/hectare (USD 1 429 to 1 905), which is equal to the yearly income of a rich family and 2 to 3 years income of a poor family. Although, up to 60 per cent of the cost was covered by subsides from the local county government (according to Mr. Fan, Vice Director and Senior Technician of

Huachi County Water and Soil Conservation Bureau), the remaining 40 per cent was still a big investment for local farmers, particularly for the poorer ones.

As a consequence, poorer farmers who do not have gentle slopeland and cannot afford the cost of terracing, would not have the equal opportunity to improve their land productivity as other farmers. Furthermore, these vulnerable groups of smallholder farmers would be more sensitive when exposed to unfavorable changing climatic conditions.

• Opportunities of terracing

The external positive aspects of terracing for the local smallholder farmers include:

(i) financial support such as subsidies from the local government for individual farmers to terrace their slopeland; and (ii) the drought resilient farming

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technologies (such as film mulching), particularly suited to terracing, have been disseminated and promoted by local government. These are considered great opportunities for local smallholder farmers to develop their dryland farming productivity, and consequently to greatly enhance their resilience to drought as well as reduced rainfall.

• Threats of terracing

Although land productivity has been significantly improved by terracing, one downfall is that farmers lack awareness and experience of terrace management and maintenance. This information emerged from interviews with local land and soil technician Mr. Fan who commented that more than 35 per cent of the terraces in Huachi were manually converted about 5 to 8 years ago. All of these old terraces are now in bad condition, with uneven floor and/or damaged terrace lips which result in reduced land productivity and increased soil erosion. Mr. Fan said farmers’ inappropriate farming (such as tillage) practices together with insufficient maintenance would result in decreased land quality and productivity of both old and new terraced lands.

Case of a local farmer

Case Two is of a local farmer who converted his slopeland to terrace with the support from the county government in early 2005. His story shows that terracing slopeland has significantly enhanced the resilience of dryland farming to the unfavorable climatic conditions.

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Case Two: Terracing to make dryland farming resilient for smallholder farmers

Ms. Yang, is a local farmer from Fanzhuang village in Huachi. Her family had a total of 2.3ha slopeland before terracing. In 2005, with the financial support from the county government, more than half of her family’s gentle slopelands were terraced. Now, she and her family farm on 1 ha terrace, and 1 ha slopeland that is not suitable for terracing. Also, 0.3 ha steep slopeland has been retired with planting of trees and grasses. “We only paid less than one third of the cost for terracing all our slopeland, the government helped to pay the rest”.

“Terracing has changed our life and farming significantly”. Ms. Yang said before terracing her family had to work really hard on the slopeland but received limited income from the land due to the poor land productivity. “Crop yield was so bad at that time, particularly when there was a drought. The yield of winter wheat and maize was only 750kg/ha and 2250kg/ha, respectively”. She appreciated the terrace for the enhanced capacity of water conservation and soil fertility. “Our yields on the terrace have increased a lot. The yields of winter wheat and maize can reach as high as 3000kg/ha and 5600kg/ha, respectively”. She was very pleased that even in a drought year, she could still harvest crops from the terrace.

6.2.3 Water-saving farming technology: mulching

Mulching is an effective farming practice used to improve rainwater harvest and land productivity, particularly in semi-arid areas (Zhou et al., 2009). The mulching technologies that have been introduced on rain-fed farming areas include crop residue mulching, straw mulching, and plastic film mulching (Li et al., 2000b). The mulching technology, particularly for maize, has been largely promoted and applied in Huachi since the end of the 1990s. In 2009 there were about 6,000 hectares of crops (mainly maize) using mulching technology. This

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occupied about 15 per cent of the total annual farming area.

Technical aspects of plastic film mulching

Plastic film mulching is widely used in Huachi, especially where irrigation is not available and temperatures are low in spring (Liu et al., 2001; Zhang et al., 2005).

Crops planted with mulching have shown significantly enhanced resilience to drought events as well as increased yields. Wang et al. (2004) found that grain yield in mulched plots was 28.9 per cent higher than in plots without mulching.

Increases in yield by film mulching are attributable to factors including:

• A reduction in soil evaporation and increase in crop transpiration (Figure

6.4): the film directly prevents

water evaporating from the soil

and keeps topsoil water relatively

stable (Li et al., 2001; Wang et al.,

2003).

Figure 6.4 Ridge covered by mulch to prevent soil evaporation (Wang et al., 2009c)

• An improvement in soil moisture by increasing water harvesting: the ridge

covered by plastic film directs the runoff to the furrow where the water

infiltrates through capillaries to inside the ridge (Zhou et al., 2009). For

instance, the mulching practice of alternating ridge and furrow with only

the ridge mulched with plastic film (Figure 6.5). This leads to good water

moisture in the soil near the plant (Wang et al., 2009c).

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Figure 6.5 Water harvesting by film

infiltration

(picture source: http://

equip.aweb.com.cn)

• Increases topsoil temperature: when ‘solar energy passes through the

mulch and heats up the air and soil beneath the mulch, the heat is trapped

by the “greenhouse effect” ’ (Zhou et al., 2009, p.41). It has also been

found that mulching results in more of a soil temperature increase in

locations with a high elevation and low accumulated temperature (Wang et

al., 2005).

Over the last decade, a number of mulching and planting methods for crops

(including maize, potatoes, and vegetables) have been developed and used in many areas of Huachi. These include: (1) not-whole mulching (NM), alternating mulched row and bare row without a ridge (Figure 6.6a); (2) whole mulching

(WM), a flat plot all mulched with plastic film (Figure 6.6b); (3) ridge mulching

(RM), alternating ridges and furrows with only the ridge mulched with plastic film (Figure 6.6c) with two rows of crops planted on the ridge; and (4) double ridge mulching (DRM), using double ridges (big one and small one) and the furrow, all mulched by one whole plastic film (Figure 6.6d). In the joint of two ridges is the furrow for rainwater harvesting and crop planting. Normally, the two pieces of plastic film is jointed in the midline of the big ridge in the DRM.

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c. RM d. DRM

Figure 6.6 Four typical mulching methods used as rain-fed farming practices in Huachi County (Developed based on Zhou et al., 2009)

Experiments conducted on the four mulching methods indicated that the DRM

pattern (d) is the best model for coping with drought in rainfed farming areas

(Figure 6.7). It ensures the highest yield, topsoil moisture and soil temperature, as

well as water-use efficiency (WUE) compared with all the other three methods

(Zhang et al., 2006; Liu et al., 2008; Zhou et al., 2009).

Figure 6.7 Maize planted on DRM and no mulching dryland (source: Gansu agricultural bureau, 2009)

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SWOT analysis of plastic film mulching technology

Plastic film mulching has proved to be an effective method of coping with more frequent drought events, as well as reduced rainfall (especially decreased spring rainfall), for the rain-fed farming in local areas. The SWOT tool allows for an in- depth analysis of this dryland farming technology in terms of its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities as well as its threats (Table 6.8).

Table 6.8 SWOT analysis of film mulching technologies for rain-fed farming experiencing adverse impacts of climate change in Huachi

Strengths Weaknesses

• Double yields of maize on terraces • Mulching can only be applied on level compared with no mulching terraces • Improved rainwater use efficiency • Extra costs of the film materials (WUE) for rain-fed farmlands • It requires extra labour inputs for spreading • Enhanced drought resilience of crops film before planting and cleaning residues • Increased farmers’ income from rain-fed from film after harvesting farming • Poor household with less labour cannot afford the technology by themselves Opportunities Threats

• Financial support for the cost of film • Plastic pollution to environment if there’re from county government no appropriate solutions to treat or recycle • Technical support and training from the residual plastic film government on mulching • Large quantities of residual plastic film left • Technical extension of mulching for in the soil will result in reduced land other crops, such as potato and productivity vegetables

• Strengths of mulching, especially DRM

According to the interviews with local farmers’, the yield of maize on DRM field reached 10.5 tonnes per hectare in a normal rainfall year, which was 40 per cent and 100 per cent more than yields on RM field and no mulching flat field, respectively. Zhou et al. (2009) further found that the water-use efficiency (WUE) in the DRM field was 11 times greater than in the no mulching flat field, and

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greater than RM, NM and WM by 67.7 per cent, 26.7 per cent and 9.2 per cent, respectively.

In the mid 1990’s when our slopelands were first converted to terrace, we

applied RM to our maize planting and the yield was very good compared

with no mulching…But now we have found out that DRM for maize is even

better than RM. The plants can absorb more soil water when sown in the

furrow (in DRM) than in the ridge (in RM) –Male, 45 years old.

According to the interviews with local farmers, the crops with mulching technology (mainly DRM) show significantly enhanced drought resilience. Table

6.2 ‘Drought resistance for the main crops on the Loess Plateau’ provides an excellent example of increased drought resilience of maize by mulching. The enhanced drought resilience improves crop yields, thereby increasing farm income.

• Weaknesses of mulching technology

Mulching technology can only be applied on level terraces, mainly because of technical reasons (Liu et al., 2009). It is difficult to mulch on slopeland or uneven land, both with manual labour and with mulching machines (Figure 6.8).

Therefore, farmers who do not have terraced land are not able to employ the mulching technology.

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Figure 6.8 Mulching by manual labour (left) and by mulching machine (right) for DRM (source: Gansu agricultural bureau website, 2009).

The extra cost of the film materials, to some extent, is another barrier to farmers applying the mulching technology. In general, the quantity of plastic film used for mulching varies from 50 to 75kg/hectare, based on different mulching methods

(Zhou et al., 2009). The price of plastic film is about RMB 15 yuan/kg (about

USD2.5/kg). Therefore the average cost of plastic film is about RMB 960 per hectare. To cover the extra cost of film, farmers would need to sell an extra 800kg maize at the price of 1.2 Yuan/kg.

The interviews with the famers also revealed that mulching requires extra labour input, both in applying mulch before planting and the cleaning-up of film residue after harvesting. More than 80 per cent of the plastic films were applied manually.

Approximately 30 additional labour days are required to manually mulch one- hectare of land. The same amount of labour input is needed for cleaning-up residue film after harvesting. Therefore, local households who do not have enough labour are not able to implement the mulching technology by themselves.

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• Opportunities for the extension of mulching technology

Financial support from the local government offers farmers, particularly poor farmers with suitable land, a great opportunity to apply the mulching technology in order to improve their land productivity and resilience to drought. The interviewed county and township government leaders revealed that there have been significant financial efforts from the local government to promote and extend the mulching technology (mainly the DRM) for crops in recent years.

Free plastic films were provided to the farmers who first applied the mulching technology. These farmers were selected as pilot participants to demonstrate the technology. As a consequence, non-participant farmers would purchase the plastic film and utilize the mulching technology when they witnessed greatly improved yields from the demonstration.

Technical support and training are essential for local farmers to be able to apply the mulching technology more efficiently. Technicians from Huachi Agricultural

Bureau carried out training sessions to demonstrate and instruct local farmers how to mulch. This included land preparation, ridge and furrow building, film application as well as other technical aspects for different growing periods of crops. The technology for mulching other crops, including potatoes and other vegetables, was also introduced to local farmers.

• Threats of mulching

Do to the rapid expansion of mulching technology over the last decade in many dryland-farming areas in China, the plastic film residue has become a critical

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issue in terms of sustainability (Li & Zheng, 2010). A study by Xiao and Zhao

(2005) indicates that the level of plastic film residue remaining in the land, which has been mulched for several years, could reach as high as 135kg/hectare. More than 65 per cent of film residues were found in the top tillage layer (from 0-10cm)

(Qi et al., 2001). Liu (2000) argued that a high level of plastic film residue in the soil content would make plowing more difficult, destroy the balance of the soil structure, and eventually reduce the land productivity in the long-term. Due to the soil changes, the land productivity decreased by 7 per cent and 17 per cent on land that has been continually mulched for 5 years and 10 years, respectively (Liu,

2000).

In addition, the current plastic films (mainly polyethylene) used for mulching, are not designed for recycling or reuse and this could result in a serious environmental problem of ‘white pollution’ (Liu et al., 2009; Zeng, 2009; Li &

Zheng, 2010). Tonnes of plastic film wastes are gathered from mulched lands after harvesting by farmers, without any recycling or reuse measures in place.

However, according to the interviews with local farmers, only 20 per cent (n=35) realize that this would be a problem in terms of sustainable environmental development.

6.2.4 Rainwater harvesting for drinking & small scale irrigation

Rainwater harvesting can change the distribution pattern of rainwater availability in time and space, to supply steady water sources for both drinking and irrigation

(Li et al., 2002). Rainwater is collected during the main rainy seasons (and particularly during intense rainstorms) in underground water cisterns. It is then

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used for drinking and/or small-scale irrigation throughout the whole year. The rainwater harvesting system (RHS) was first practiced in Gansu Province on the

Loess Plateau in the 1960s with the aim of solving the drinking water problem for people and livestock (Li, 2000b). Since 1995, RHS has been further used to solve water shortages for agricultural production (Cook et al., 2000; Li, 2000b).

Technical aspects of rainwater harvesting system

Huachi County has a long history of rainwater harvesting. Rainwater harvesting has served as a core means of providing water for human and livestock drinking since the early 1960s, particularly during the increased drought events and water deficits (Li et al., 2000a). Water cisterns and their associated collection surfaces are low-cost and small-scale and are an effective rainwater harvesting system for local farmers. Figure 6.9 shows the small-scale rainwater harvesting system being widely used by household farmers in Huachi.

The rainwater harvesting system mainly consists of the collection surface/ground, the runoff channel, a sediment tank, and storage water cistern (vase-like, ball-like or column like shape) (Figure 6.9). In Huachi County, the collection surface is normally waterproofed by compacted dirt, melted wax, concrete, and sometimes plastic film. Most of the collection surfaces are built in courtyards for domestic use (human and livestock drinking). Some are built in locations surrounding or above fields for irrigation purposes, but only used for small-scale land fpor planting vegetables or orchard irrigation. The runoff channel and sediment tank are installed between the collection surface and storage water cistern.

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Figure 6.9 The diagram of the water harvesting system widely used by farming households in Huachi County (developed based on Li et al., 2000a)

There are two main types of cistern; those with traditional earthen walls and those with concrete walls. Cisterns with earthen walls are built by digging into the ground and then using cement or red clay soil to prevent seepage loss (Li et al.,

2000a). A cover for the water cistern is often used to prevent evaporation loss.

Zhao (1996) found that for geo-hydrological reasons, the optimal volume is 15-

20m3 for an earthen cistern, and 30-50 m3 for a concrete cistern in the loess regions of China. It was found from the farmers’ interviews that water stored in 2 water cisterns (with capacity of 30m3 each) would be sufficient for domestic use of five people throughout a whole year.

SWOT analysis of Rainwater Harvesting System

Rainwater harvesting systems are essential for providing both drinking water and small-scale irrigation particularly during the dry season. With the increased

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frequency of drought events and reduced annual rainfall in the last few decades, local farmers have built more water cisterns in order to collect more water. This, to a large extent, has reduced local farmers’ risks of water shortage for drinking. It has also provided supplemental irrigation for vegetables and orchards. The SWOT analysis (Table 6.9) systematically explains the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the rainwater harvesting system in Huachi.

Table 6.9 SWOT analysis of rainwater harvesting system used for drinking water and small-scale irrigation in Huachi County Strengths Weaknesses

• Good quality of small-scale, simple • The amount of rainwater collected is operation, and low cost highly uncertain, due to the variability • Individual household owned, used, and of annual rainfall maintained • Water can be stored in the cisterns for up to 2-3 years

Opportunities Threats

• Promotion program launched by local • Local farmers who are highly government to construct concrete dependent on the rainwater harvesting collection surface to improve the system for drinking would face rainwater collection efficiency increased vulnerability when there’s a trend of decreased annual rainfall

• Strengths of the rainwater harvesting system

The rainwater harvesting system is a small-scale system that is easy to construct, operate and manage at the individual household level (Li et al., 2002). Unlike large-scale water development projects, this household rainwater harvesting system does not require a long construction time and can provide benefits straight away after being built. The investment cost for this system is low and affordable to most farmers. For instance, the average cost (only materials inputs, as farmers own labour is considered free) for building a 30m3 concrete water cistern along

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with 100m2 concrete collection surface is about RMB 1000 Yuan (USD160).

The rainwater harvesting system is owned and managed by individual household farmers. A study by Li et al. (2000) revealed that farmers’ ownership of rainwater harvesting facilities such as collection surfaces and water cisterns provides a great incentive for farmers to maintain them. Farmers interviewed in the Huachi survey commented that the rainwater cistern that they had built in recent years would function well for at least another 10 years.

Water in the rainwater cisterns can be stored for up to 2 or 3 years and still be consumed. Therefore local farmers were building more water cisterns in their courtyards or around their houses to try to store more rainwater. This practice has reduced farmers’ vulnerability to water shortage for drinking in drought years.

• Weaknesses of the rainwater harvesting system

It is obvious that the water stored by the rainwater harvesting system is highly dependent both on the amount of annual rainfall and the rainwater collection efficiency during rainstorms (Cook et al., 2000). The water supplies for local farmers are thus highly uncertain due to the high variability of rainfall in local areas. Poor farmers who either do not have or only have one or two water cisterns would face greater risks of drinking water shortage.

• Opportunities of rainwater harvesting system

In the late 1990s, the local Huachi government launched a ‘1-2-1’ rainwater harvesting program to financially assist rural household to build about 100 m2 of collection surface, and two concrete water cisterns, to irrigate one Mu (1Mu=1/15

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ha) of cropland (mainly for vegetables or orchards). The program covered the material inputs for the construction and offered a great opportunity for local farmers, particularly the poor farmers, to solve their drinking water problem.

• Threats of rainwater harvesting system

There’s been a trend towards a decrease in annual rainfall since the 1980s in

Huachi County. Local farmers, who are highly dependent on the rainwater harvesting system for drinking, thus face increased vulnerability as annual rainfall decreases or varies.

6.3 Chapter Summary

Climate variability has already made local dryland farming activities more sensitive and vulnerable. Persistent decreasing rainfall has increased water scarcity for dryland farming. More frequent drought events, on the other hand, have intensified individual farmers’ vulnerability due to loss of crop yield and farm income. Therefore, climate change has greatly constrained farmers’ livelihoods.

In order to cope with these adverse impacts on farming and livelihood, local farmers have managed to adopt certain approaches in their farming practice in order to reduce the vulnerability to climate change. The local adaptation strategies include the use of drought resilient crops; changes in land use and farming practices; the use of dryland water-saving farming practices such as film mulching and rainwater harvesting; as well as small-scale irrigation. It is found that all these adaptation strategies, to some extent, improve farmers’ resilience to the adverse effects of changing climatic conditions.

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CHAPTER SEVEN DISCUSSION

7.1 Natural Resource Management: some emerging vulnerabilities due to climate change

The model of natural resource management on the Loess Plateau, at one level, has demonstrated an outstanding example of soil erosion control and vegetation restoration (Fu et al., 2005; Chen et al., 2007; Zhang et al., 2008a; Xu et al., 2009).

The natural resource systems have been transformed. Once severely degraded, these systems have been revived through afforestation and revegetation with grasses and shrubs; the reduction of fragile and eroded slopeland by land retirement and terracing; and the alteration of farmer behaviour such as stopping livestock grazing on steep slopeland. In turn, this transformation has improved the livelihood of local farmers by increasing the productivity of land still in service.

Nevertheless, a fundamental shortcoming of the Loess Plateau environmental conservation model is the absence of climate change as a consideration of the design and implementation of new farming policies in the area. For example, the approaches taken during the restoration process have not considered either the existing or future possible impacts of climate change, such as the water requirements of new planting. This places major constraints and uncertainties on the move from environmental system restoration to the environmental conservation model on the Plateau.

The following sections will examine the emerging vulnerabilities of the restored system to changing climatic conditions. Emerging vulnerabilities to climate

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change will further affect afforestation, compensation for land retirement, and grazing bans for land regenerated. This section will also explore the possibility of sustainable conservation of the environmental system on the Plateau against the challenges of climate change.

7.1.1 Afforestation for restoration purposes

A general definition of restoration is to ‘bring back to a former position or condition’ (Woolf, 1977, p.1034). Conservation can be defined as ‘a careful preservation and protection of something, especially planned management of a natural resource to prevent exploitation, destruction, or neglect’ (Woolf, 1997, p.298).

By understanding these basic concepts, the phrase ‘afforestation for ecosystem restoration’ illustrates the ecological objective of forest planting. Forest planting also has several other objectives including producing fiber, wood, or other forest products, and providing services such as recreational opportunities or watershed protection (Lenz & Haber, 1992). Harrington (1999, p.175) declares that

‘vegetation restoration through planting activities may be needed when the environmental systems are disturbed by either natural or anthropogenic forces’.

Over the last few decades, large-scale vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau has been fostered by the Chinese Central Government. By putting considerable financial and institutional recourses into converting degraded and desertified farmland (mainly steep slopeland) into forestland and grassland, the government was able to achieve a notable and significant restoration of vegetation on the

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Plateau (Wei et al., 2007; Chen et al., 2008; Xu et al., 2009).

To some extent, the restoration has also been effective in reducing soil erosion and alleviating land degradation on most areas of the Plateau, including in Huachi.

Here, a 45 per cent reduction in soil erosion was observed between 1999 and 2009 by increasing ground vegetation cover in forestlands and grasslands (Huachi

Statistical Yearbooks, 1999-2009). Nevertheless, in respect to this large-scale afforestation, a critical question needs to be addressed: is the afforestation restoration model on the Plateau sustainable?

Some essential internal and external factors need to be considered. These include the long-term water deficit, more frequent drought events and decreased rainfall, as well as inefficient natural resource management. Some evidence from the field study has already challenged the sustainable conservation effects on landscape and vegetation restoration in the long-term.

First of all, the quantity of trees, shrubs and grasses planted on the whole Plateau is massive. However, the survival rate of the planted trees, shrubs and grasses is very low. Due to the water deficit, unsuitable species and poor management (Chen et al., 2007), high mortality of infant plants and even mature trees was found in plantation areas. In some drought-affected areas, replanting was necessary. Thus, it has been declared that the establishment of a well-functioning woodland or agro-forestry system on the Plateau would require several decades’ or even centuries’ woth of effort (Chen et al., 2007), given the unfavorable trend of decreasing rainfall and the intensification of droughts.

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Secondly, it has been found that there is virtually no guidance available for the selection of plant species for restoration purposes. Usually, fast-growing tree and shrub species25 were used, as in the World Bank and ‘Grain for Green’ Programs.

These trees and shrubs often grew well at the beginning, but not at later stages when soil water becomes depleted (Li, 2001; Yuan & Xu, 2004). Thus, artificial tree plantations may result in ‘small-aged trees’26 due to soil desiccation after longer periods. Trees that do not grow well can make the control of runoff and soil erosion difficult.

Another big concern with the afforestation model is the inevitable competition between exotic and native species for water, especially given the declining rainfall trends. Currently, the vegetation is a mix of exotic and native trees, shrubs and grasses. Some studies have shown that the introduced exotic trees, shrubs and grasses have led to higher plant evapotranspiration and consequently lower soil moisture compared with native species on the Plateau (Wang et al., 2002; Chen et al., 2007; Ran et al., 2008). Both young and mature native plants had higher survival rates and suffer little from high mortality due to water deficits (Chen et al., 2007).

Responsibility for management and maintenance of replanted trees, shrubs and grasses is also a key factor in long-term conservation. Normally, participant

25 The species of ‘Arbor trees’ introduced includes Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia), Chinese pine (Pinus armandii), spruce (Picea mariana) and poplar (Liriodendron); The shrub species introduced consists of sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides), Chinese peashrub (Caragana sinica); and the artificial grass, astralagus (Astragalus membricanaceus) and alfalfa (Medicago sativa). 26 A ‘small-aged tree’ is a mature tree with very low trunk. These trees are common in the artificial plantation areas on the arid Plateau (Hou et al., 1999; Yang & Tian, 2004).

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farmers take responsibility for the maintenance and development of the regenerated forests and grasslands, in accordance with a responsibility contract with the government which they sign before afforesting their retired slopelands.

Individual farmers own the products from commercial forests (mainly trees for timber products) on their retired land, and can sell and benefit from these. For replanted ecological forests (trees and shrubs), unlike the replanted commercial forests, farmers are strictly prohibited from cutting any growth. All trees and shrubs in ecological forests are conserved for ecosystem regeneration purposes.

Grazing on replanted grasslands is strictly forbidden, apart from steep slopeland replanted with alfalfa for fodder. However, the maintenance and management of these trees, shrubs and grasses will become more difficult if the climate becomes drier.

It is therefore a concern that, if all these problems and constraints are continually ignored, vegetation restoration by afforestation on the Plateau may result in the exhaustion of water resources and eventually result in environmental deterioration.

Several decades or even hundreds of years may be needed for the natural resource systems to become stable and resilient on the Plateau.

The future restoration of the Plateau by afforestation will require integrating climate change into the equation and would therefore require:

• Testing the suitability of the plant species (mainly the exotic ones), in

particular their drought resilience, before implementing large areas of

afforestation.

• Protecting and enlarging the scale of native plant species for planting

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which are better able to cope with the local climatic conditions.

• Improving natural resource management through sharing information and

knowledge of climate or weather patterns.

7.1.2 Compensation to farmers for land retirement

The Payments for Environmental Services (PES) is an incentive mechanism to finance conservation, particularly in developing countries (Landell-Mills & Porras,

2002; Pagiola & Platais, 2005). The idea that positive incentives, rather than regulation and punishment, can be an effective method of achieving sustainable ecosystem management is widely recognised (Hutton & Leader-Williams 2003;

Sanchez-Azofeifa et al., 2007; Sommerville et al., 2009; Sommerville et al., 2010).

It is generally accepted that well-designed, incentive-driven programs can motivate people to manage ecosystems to produce environmental services

(Salafsky & Wollenberg, 2000; Brown, 2002; Landell-Mills & Porras, 2002).

In the case of environmental conservation on the Plateau, individual farmers voluntarily convert cropland to areas of environmental regeneration.

Compensation from the Chinese Government (including grain, cash payments and free seedlings) has provided a powerful economic incentive for this to happen. It is clearly one of the principal inducements that has influenced the magnitude and scale of the conservation achievements to date. As shown in Chapter 4, compensation has been highly effective in inducing farmers to retire and regenerate degraded cropland.

However, the PES scheme was only short term. As in the ‘Grain for Green’

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program, the payments ceased at the end of the program and resulting conservation benefits may only be temporary. Once the compensation stops, farmers may no longer be willing to maintain the forests and grasslands. The study further concluded that the conservation impacts would probably be short lived if no further incentives were forthcoming.

Post-program land use decisions and behaviours of participating farmers have been one of the key concerns of the long-term conservation programs elsewhere

(Cooper & Osborn, 1998). Cooper and Osborn’s (1998) study found that the post- program responses of farmers depended on the rate of current and post-program conservation payments, as well as their own perceptions of the conservation program’s impact on their future livelihood.

Nevertheless, there were still various issues of concern raised by participants that could have implications for the longevity of environmental benefits. First of all, the future potential income from the retired cropland is insecure. Interviewed farmers commented that the current income from the orchards was far less than they had expected due to the unfavourable climatic conditions (drier and less reliable rainfall) and the unstable market prices of fruit. Moreover, with the ban on sheep grazing in many areas, and consequent pen feeding of sheep, households relied upon alfalfa for pen feeding; however, the productivity of alfalfa was low caused by an increase in severe and frequent droughts over recent years.

Furthermore, workers from the farms are generally unskilled, and the off-farm jobs they have are typically temporary and insecure.

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All these factors mean that farmers may seek to take land back out of retirement to generate additional income in the future, depending on factors such as changes in market prices for key goods, changes in labour market opportunities, and in particular, the adverse impacts from the changing climate on their land productivity and income. Therefore some uncertainties regarding the long-term sustainability of the environmental benefits of conservation remain.

7.1.3 Land closure and grazing ban: allowing natural resource systems rehabilitation Land closure or retirement from grazing and aggressive cultivation was implemented on the Loess Plateau for vegetation rehabilitation. The grazing ban proclaimed by the Chinese Government in the early 2000s under the conservation scheme further allows further land closure on the Plateau. Compliance with the grazing ban on closed or retired land is enforced through a strict regime of fines, the confiscation of livestock, and forfeiting of government subsides. Special patrol teams have been established to inspect for illegal grazing.

It has been found that strict grazing bans and the regeneration of retired fragile mountains, hill-slopes and marginal land have dramatically reduced livestock husbandry in most areas of the Loess Plateau under the conservation scheme. In

Huachi County for example, more than 80 per cent of households were raising sheep in early 1999, with an average of 50-60 sheep per household. Livestock raising was highly dependent on free grazing on hills and natural grassland at that time, which resulted in severe land and vegetation degradation. Under the grazing ban regime in Huachi, each household is only allowed to have a maximum of 15 sheep.

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The grazing ban shifted livestock raising from free grazing to pen feeding, reducing the pressure on local grasslands. More than 75 per cent of the interviewed farmers in Huachi agreed that the grazing ban had significantly contributed to the locally improved ecosystem and vegetation cover.

In order to have enough fodder for pen feeding sheep, native grass and alfalfa have been planted on farmers’ retired croplands and on barren marginal land.

Alfalfa can regrow quickly after harvesting, which can take place 2-3 times each year. In Huachi, alfalfa is harvested for hay or silage.

While the numbers of sheep kept per household has been reduced, the Huachi

County government provided technical support and a new, high quality species of sheep for local individual farmers to increase the income gained from each animal.

Free seedlings of new alfalfa species with higher yields than traditional ones, as well as financial support for building pens, were also supplied to local farmers.

However, some farmers still illegally graze on the protected mountains and hills or on replanted lands. The illegal grazing, to some extent, has undermined the effects of vegetation regeneration. Based on the interviews with local officials, village leaders and farmers, there are several reasons for the illegal grazing:

• Decreased profits: a certain percentage of farmers do not accept the

grazing ban as it greatly harms their own profits and reduces their income

due to the dramatic reduction in permitted livestock numbers. The

compensation given to those who are most harmed (like households which

had 50-60 sheep before the implementation of the grazing ban), is

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obviously insufficient. But because the program is implemented through a

‘top-down’ command and control system, with strong enforcement

measures, most of the farmers choose to accept the grazing ban without

complaint.

• Inadequate fodder for pen-feed: some of the farmers, particularly the

poorer ones, do not have enough grassland to produce fodder for their

livestock; or in dry seasons, they do not have enough alfalfa harvested

from replanted grassland.

• Farmers’ awareness of environmental protection: farmers’ awareness of

sustainability and environmental protection been found to be weak.

Furthermore, the trends of decreasing rainfall and more frequent drought events on the Plateau could also potentially affect farmers’ current sheep rearing practices (pen-fed) and their attitude to the grazing ban in significant ways. Firstly, the reduced rainfall and prolonged drought, particularly in recent years, has to some extent, reduced the yields of the alfalfa. In Huachi, for example, the yield of alfalfa (as a hay product) decreased by about 40 per cent due to the severe drought in 2006; it resulted in a serious shortage of fodder over the whole year for most of the farmers who raised livestock. As a consequence, more cases of illegal grazing were reported. Secondly, some of the newly introduced species of alfalfa, although having higher yields, have lower drought tolerance. All these factors, will eventually impact negatively on farmers’ income from the raising of livestock.

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7.2 Determinants of Farmers’ Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change The adaptive capacity of a system to climate change reflects its ability to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, and to cope with the consequences of climate change (IPCC, 2001b). According to Ford et al.

(2006) adaptive capacity is determined by the ‘resource use options’ and the ‘risk management strategies’ of the local community, as well as human and biophysical conditions and processes operating beyond the local community level.

Key determinants of adaptive capacity include economic wealth, social capital, infrastructure, social institutions, experience with previous risk, the range of technologies available for adaptation, equity of access to resources within the community, as well as other factors affecting decision-making within the local community (Adger & Kelly, 1999; Smit & Pilifosova, 2001; Smith et al., 2003).

However, it is essential to acknowledge that these determinants may facilitate or even constrain the ability of a community to deal with climate-related risks

(Barnett, 2001; Adger, 2003).

The ability of the communities in Huachi to cope with or deal with changing climate-related exposure-sensitivities is indicative of their adaptive capacity. The adaptive capacity of Huachi is influenced by farmers’ ability to recognise a change in climate; farmers’ traditional skills and knowledge; new farming infrastructure and technology available; access to information; and access to diverse resources and institutional support. Nevertheless, as observed in the local community, certain aspects of those adaptive capacities have been undermined and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities.

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7.2.1 Farmers’ perception of climate change

A better understanding of the social and economic factors influencing individual farmers abilities to recognise a change in climate is necessary to determine how farmers will respond to a changing climate. Hageback et al. (2005) point out that it is difficult for farmers to respond to climate change if they are not aware of the change. Adaptation to climate change requires that ‘farmers first notice that the climate has altered, and then need to identify potentially useful adaptations, and implement them’ (Maddison, 2006, p.6).

Farmers’ recognition of seasonal variations, including changes in rainfall patterns and extreme weather events, corresponds well with the climatic data recorded at the local meteorological station in Huachi. Indeed, farmers in the Huachi County are able to recognize that temperatures have increased, that there has been a reduction of annual and spring rainfall, and that drought events have become more frequent.

Although farmers are well aware of changes in climate, not all of them have responded by taking the same adaptive measures. Farmers choose from among a set of adaptation options that are available in their region based on their own agricultural decisions. As shown in Chapter 5, the main adaptation strategies of farmers in Huachi are changes in crop usage, change in land use by terracing, the use of water-saving agricultural technology, and the building of water harvesting systems.

Maddison (2006) argues that farmers learn gradually about climate change and

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therefore, will also learn gradually about the best techniques and adaptation options available. According to Maddison, farmers learn about the best adaptation options in three ways: (i) learning by doing, (ii) learning by copying, and (iii) learning from instruction. There is recognition that individual farmer responses vary when faced with the same climatic stimuli.

An important factor behind the varied response of farmers is the differences between farmers’ personal knowledge and farming skills; endowments of farming infrastructure and technology; and access to information and institutional support.

These are believed to be the key determinants affecting what adjustment farmers will make in their farming practices in response to the changes. The following sections will discuss in detail the key determinants of farmers’ adaptive capacity at the local community level.

7.2.2 Farmers’ knowledge and skills

The role of local farmers’ knowledge has long been a focus within development studies, such as the ‘farmer first’ approaches to agricultural development, livelihoods and participation (Richards, 1985; Fals-Borda, 1991; Chambers &

Conway, 1992; Scoones & Thompson, 1994, 2009).

Kolawole (2001) also revealed that farmers’ knowledge is unique and localized, based on the insights and experience of several generations. Farmers’ knowledge, as well as their skills with climatic risks, has been increasingly recognized as important when dealing with climatic variations and adaptation (Ford & Furgal,

2009; Green & Raygorodestsky, 2010).

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The traditional knowledge and skills of local Huachi farmers is based on their extensive experience of farming, and has evolved to cope with and adapt to climatic exposure-sensitivities. It remains important today and contributes to the adaptability of dryland farming activities. In Huachi, farmers have a sophisticated understanding of the productive potential of their environment as well as their land resources. This knowledge is transferred through informal channels (like communication between family members) from older to younger generations.

Flexibility is key to the resilience of the system (Newsham et al., 2011). It has been found that local farmers tend to try to establish their farming across different types of crops on available land. This is because different crops are recognized by farmers to perform well on certain types of land under different weather conditions. Furthermore, compared with farming practices in the 1980s, farmers’ knowledge has evolved and changed in response to emerging exposure and successful adaptations.

However, the increasing unpredictability of climatic and environmental conditions is now further challenging farmers’ traditional experience and knowledge.

I feel it is much more difficult now to choose the correct crops to plant than

before, as the weather is much more uncertain and unforeseeable – Mr

Zhihong Deng (Farmer, 65 years old).

7.2.3 Farming infrastructure and technologies

Improvements in farming infrastructure and technologies are proven to enhance

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the resilience of agriculture in the face of the adverse impacts of climate change

(Fankhauser et al., 1999; Smit & Skinner, 2002; Howden et al., 2007). For example, investment in infrastructure and new technologies for cropping systems are an effective adaptation option at the farm or local community level (Adger et al., 2007).

In Huachi County, the main improvements in farming infrastructure and technologies in response to changing climatic conditions include: farmland development by converting slopeland to terraces; new cropping technologies such as mulching; and rainwater-harvesting systems for both drinking and small-scale irrigation. These farm-level adaptations singly or in combination, to some extent, have so far offset the negative impacts of climate change and thus enhanced farmers’ adaptive capacity to climatic exposure and changes.

For example, the conversion of slopeland to level terraces has almost halved the significant negative impacts of severe drought on maize yield (-60 per cent) and winter wheat yield (-55 per cent) to -35 per cent and -30 per cent, respectively.

The mulching technology applied to the terrace for maize production has further decreased the negative impacts (-20 per cent for RM film mulching, and only -15 per cent for DRM film mulching). Additionally, the rainwater-harvesting systems introduced at the household level have strengthened farmers’ resilience to climate related water shortages both for livelihood and small-scale irrigation for vegetables and orchards.

New farming strategies have been largely undertaken by individual farmers in

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response to the climatic changes that they are experiencing, and in anticipation of future changes. But not all farmers have equal access to these adaptation strategies.

Technological adaptations like mulching, for instance, are only available to those who can afford them. Therefore, those with sufficient financial resources to employ the technology are able to ensure more efficient farming than others, particularly under unfavorable climatic conditions. In this way, technology has aided adaptation for some, but ignored the opportunities for others (Ford et al.,

2006).

The effectiveness of adaptation by infrastructure, technological innovation, and development varies. For instance, individual farmers’ rainwater-harvesting systems with several water cisterns allow extra rainwater to be stored and used.

The drought resilience of terraced land is highly dependent on the terrace’s quality and long-term maintenance.

7.2.4 Access to information

Available and good access to information can assist adaptation (Klein et al., 2001;

Patt, 2003; Phillips, 2003). Adger (2003) states the capacity of individuals to adapt to climate change is dependent on their access to resources and information.

Initiatives that improve farmers’ access to information, including market information (crop prices), weather forecasting, and early warning systems, can therefore improve farmers’ adaptive capacity to climate change (Fankhauser et al.,

1999; Grothmann & Patt, 2005; Füssel, 2007).

In Huachi, improved access to information about the market price of crops is

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assisting farmers in their negotiations with buyers and in making decisions about which markets to use. The crop prices at the market also affect farmers’ decisions about which crops they choose to plant. It was found from the interviews that information about market and crop prices is provided to individual farmers through various means, including through media (television, internet, radio broadcasts and newspapers); information flyers and brochures from agricultural extension centers at both county and township levels; and informal communication between farmers.

Farmers now have a number of ways to obtain market and crop price

information. It helps farmers a lot to make decisions about their planting –

(Mr Wang, Village Leader)

Downing (1996) comments that as information on weather hazards becomes more available and understood by local farmers, it is possible for them to study, discuss, prepare and implement adaptation measures. It was found in the field survey that the frequent weather updates and forecasting by the Huachi climate station are also enabling farmers to plan ahead and make more informed decisions about their planting and harvesting. The early warning system established through the Huachi county climate station, to township governments and then to local communities and individual farmers, has also largely reduced the production risks for local smallholder farmers.

7.2.5 Institutional support

O’Riordan and Jordan (1999) describe the role of institutions as a means for

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holding society together, giving it sense and purpose and enabling it to adapt.

Strengthening institutional efficiency and managerial capacity to cope with anticipated natural events will help to reduce the vulnerability of communities to climate change (Ahmed et al., 1999; Smit et al., 2001).

The existing institutional arrangements in Huachi, to some extent, have assisted local people to adapt to the changing climatic conditions. The consistent agricultural policies on land development in last few decades (e.g. terracing and long-term land tenure) have enhanced the productivity of farmland which has increased the resilience of local communities to the changing climate.

Furthermore, the financial support provided under the agricultural development polices scheme in Huachi has played an important role in covering the expenses associated with infrastructure improvements and new technology extensions. This has helped to equip local communities and farmers to cope with changing exposures. The cash compensation and allowance for terracing, mulching technology, as well as rainwater-harvesting systems, help farmers cover costs of equipment and supplies.

Nevertheless, Smit et al. (2001) argue that institutions should not only facilitate management of contemporary climate-related risks but also provide an institutional capacity to help farmers deal with future climatic risks. The interviews with relevant government agencies in Huachi revealed that existing institutions lack the ability to efficiently deal with future climate change hazards.

Given the climatic uncertainties and the very bureaucratic institutional setting,

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there’s insufficient local institutional capacity to adapt to the uncertain but potentially large impacts of future changing climate conditions.

7.3 Emerging Vulnerabilities of Rural Livelihoods to Climate

Change

As discussed in Section 7.2, the ‘determinants of adaptive capacity in Huachi’ include farmers’ ability to recognise climate change; farmers’ traditional knowledge and skills; farming infrastructure and facilities; access to information; as well as support from institutions. This has resulted in farmers becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change. Changes in climate, particularly extreme weather events, lead to unpredictable crop yields and unpredictable income. These emerging vulnerabilities, particularly the socio-economic dimension, will further reduce farmers’ resilience to changing climatic exposure- sensitivities. Therefore a better understanding of the emerging social and economic factors influencing farmers’ adaptive capacity to respond to a changing climate on the Plateau is urgently required.

The three parts of this section will cover the key emerging vulnerabilities of farm income, off-farm employment, as well as other livelihood related activities. The principle conclusion is that all these emerging social and economic problems will undermine farmers’ resilience and adaptive capacity to the changing climate.

7.3.1 Subsistent agriculture for local smallholder farmers

More than 80 per cent of the population of the Plateau are living in rural areas and

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are involved in farming activities, either on a full-time or part-time basis. About

90 per cent of agriculture on the Plateau is rain-fed, with maize and winter wheat being the two grain-crops most commonly produced and consumed by farmers themselves. Farmers plant cash crops on remaining land only when household grain production is satisfied. The agricultural income for local farmers thus comes from selling cash crops (including potato, soybean, millet), and surplus grain products for household consumption.

In most areas of the Plateau, farming was the central component of local farmers’ income and livelihood before early 1990s. As shown in Section 5.2, agricultural income occupied 60-70 per cent of farmers’ total annual income (less than

USD110) in Huachi. Other income sources for local farmers include off-farm employment, livestock raising, and others such as orchards and government subsides. However, over the last two decades agricultural income has largely stagnated (USD125 in 1995 to USD148 in 2008) and contributed less to individual farmers’ total income. At the same time, the rise of off-farm employment income (USD6 in 1995 to USD147 in 2008) was substantial.

Consequently, in 2008 the average contribution of agriculture to farmers’ total income has decreased to only 30 per cent in Huachi. If this trend continues, it is likely that agriculture will become subsistence only for smallholder farmers.

There are several factors that contribute to the declining significance of agricultural income to farmers’ livelihoods. On one hand, the stagnation of agricultural income is due to the increased cost of farming inputs, unstable crop market prices and unfavorable climatic conditions. Another important reason,

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however, is the expanded rural labour participation in off-farm employment. The income from off-farm work has increased dramatically and become fundamental to farmers’ livelihoods (Hageback et al., 2005; Hu et al., 2006; Nolan et al., 2008).

Although there have been various initiatives to promote agricultural development from both the government and individual farmers over the last few decades, the income from farming for local smallholder farmers has continued to decrease. It is accepted that farmland development and farming extension technology, including terracing, mulching, and small-scale irrigation, have increased the land productivity and crop yields. Nevertheless, this enhanced farming productivity has been largely offset by a series of unfavorable factors.

According to interviews with the farmers, the increased farming inputs (like farming materials, fertilizer, pesticide), the unstable crop market price, and the reduced rainfall and more frequent droughts, were the key factors behind the reduced agricultural income of smallholder farmers. It is therefore possible to increase farmers’ agricultural income by enhancing farming efficiency as well as farmers’ ability to cope with the unfavorable factors.

Also in the interviews, farmers complained that the use and cost of farming inputs have increased by at least 50-60 per cent in recent years, as the price of fertilizers and pesticides has increased outside their control. More farming materials are now needed with the introduction of new farming technologies such as the plastic film for mulching applied to maize production. Some farmers even noticed that they needed to use more pesticides for the crops as the amount of pests increased due

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to warmer temperatures, for example in the winter wheat. Therefore, for individual farmers, it is worthwhile improving farming efficiency in order to bring down the average costs of farming inputs and thus increase farm income.

As shown in section 5.3, most farmers sell their products to local markets.

Farmers commented that the price of crop products has increased in the last few years, but not as rapidly as the prices of farming inputs. What’s more, for individual farmers who only have small amounts of product to sell, they have less bargaining power to negotiate prices within the market. For instance, for a household who has 1.3 ha of farmland, the average amount of saleable products a normal year (without drought impacts) would be around 1500kg wheat, 750kg maize, 500kg soybean, 800kg potato and less than 100kg millet. Furthermore, due to a lack of proper storage facilities and technologies, most local farmers sell their products directly after harvesting, thereby flooding the market and reducing market price.

In addition, the prices in the local market are normally lower than those in bigger cities. However, only a few individual farmers seek to sell their products in city markets. Firstly, this is because farmers are generally not willing to take the risk as they do not have enough information regarding prices in other markets other than the local market. Secondly, farmers who sell products in big city market need to transport their produce from their village to the city. However, farmers cannot leave their farm for too long as they would lack labour for their farm work.

Unfavorable changing climatic conditions, including the trends towards decreased

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annual rainfall, disappearing spring rainfall, and more frequent and severe drought events, particularly in past few decades, have massively reduced agricultural productivity and farmer’s income. As demonstrated in Section 5.3, the drought events have cut crop yields by 50-60 per cent in most of the rain-fed farming areas on the Plateau. It would thus reduce individual farmers’ agricultural income by

30-50 per cent (based on the surplus amount sold at markets).

Farmers’ adaption to the drier weather (including terracing land and mulching technology) as discussed in Section 5.3, can mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on farm productivity. For instance, the crops planted on terraces, particularly with mulching technology, show greatly enhanced resilience to drought (Zhou et al., 2009; Liu et al., 2010). However, based on farmers’ interviews, drought is still considered to be a severe climatic hazard for rain-fed agricultural production.

A rainwater harvesting system was thus designed to collect the rainwater during the rainy season to supplement crop irrigation. Nevertheless, the rainwater harvesting system is mainly used for family drinking water and small-scale irrigation for orchards and vegetables in farmers’ backyards. The use of the rainwater harvesting system for larger-scale irrigation was only found in a limited area of the Plateau (Li et al., 2000a).

Based on the field survey, the limitations of the extension of rainwater harvesting to supplement irrigation to enable local individual farmers to adapt to drought are:

(i) building up the whole rainwater harvesting system for irrigation with extended

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irrigation to connect the farmlands would cost more than the simple system in the backyard for drinking water, and it would be a big investment for an individual household; (ii) the capacity of water storage for one harvesting system with 2-3 water cisterns (with average 20-30 m3) is considered too limited for large scale crop irrigation; (iii) there is unlikey to be a suitable place for digging the water cistern by the newly converted terraces; and (iv) the traditional irrigation methods of flood irrigation, without the technical support (such as drip and sprinkler irrigation system), would result in extremely low efficiency of water use.

In conclusion, the agricultural sector in many areas of the Plateau contributes less to farmers’ livelihood than it did many decades or centuries ago. There are various reasons for this. Poor agricultural productivity is a key factor behind reduced farming income, particularly for local smallholder farmers. The trend towards less rainfall and drier weather is making inefficient land productivity even worse.

Gradually, farmers are losing their confidence and reliance on their land. They are starting to seek other possible strategies to increase their income and improve their livelihood. This is especially the case with the younger generations who are better educated, more open-minded and flexible (Lohmar et al., 2001; Guang &

Zheng, 2005), and also are more attracted to modern life in the big cities rather than in the villages. An in-depth description of the farmers’ off-farm work will be further discussed in the following section.

7.3.2 Farmers’ off-farm work: can it secure farmers a sustainable livelihood?

More and more young farmers are now employed in off-farm jobs. Based on the

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interviews with farmers, the number of farmers who engaged in non-agricultural activities, both casual and full time, such as construction, transportation, or restaurants in nearby cities, has significantly increased since the late 1990s. The field study found that more than 85 per cent are young people from 20 to 35 years of age are working off-farm. Therefore, the farming activities and decision- making are now left to the older generation or to women who are left behind in the village. ‘…the younger generations are not out there farming…’, one old farmer (male, 65years old) said with great anxiety.

The decline in participation and interest in farming activities of young people has been attributed to numerous factors: the major driver for this non-migratory labour movement from rural to urban areas is the economic incentive (Zhao, 1999;

Hu, 2007). As discussed, farmers’ annual income from off-farm employment is now much greater than income from farming activities. Furthermore, this study revealed that the decreased income from agricultural production (due to many unfavorable factors such as poor rainfall, drought and low land productivity) should also be recognized as another key force behind population movement in most rural communities. The increased income from off-farm work significantly contributed to the whole family’s income status and livelihood. The economic benefit is thus the key reason for the large-scale labour movement (particularly young people) from the farm sector to off-farm sectors.

Many scholars believe that a surplus of labour existed in rural areas which made it possible for the labour transfer from farm-work to off-farm work over the recent decades (Liu, 2002; Sheng & Peng, 2006). The new farming technologies, to

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some extent, save labour inputs. This makes it possible for farmers to search for some temporary off-farm work in nearby cities or towns.

Additionally, the economic reform and growth of China since the 1990s is considered to be an important driver for the large scale movement of the rural population to cities (Cai, 2006). Economic development has created numerous employment opportunities particularly in large cities, and has required a large amount of labour (especially cheap labour), mainly for construction, transportation, restaurants and other trade services. The young generation, aged from 20-35 years old, is educated and most have graduated from at least junior high school. They find it easy to adjust to new lives in the city, are quick to learn new labour skills, and are most likely to find a part-time or full-time job (Guang

& Zheng, 2005).

However, this could have a major impact on the regions’ future agricultural development if this trend continues, and more and more rural labourers, especially young people, become predominantly involved in off-farm work rather than farm work. This issue is an important area of debate for many researchers and scholars

(Cai, 2004; Cai et al., 2007; Cai & Wang, 2008) and has already attracted the attention of policy-makers. Many problems will emerge if this rural labour movement continues without any control or long-term plan.

Firstly, the movement of rural labour to cities will result in insufficient labour resources for the agricultural sector, which might lead to reduced food supplies and unsustainable regional agricultural development. Cai (2007) argues that there

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is not actually as much surplus labour in China’s agricultural sector as most people believe. The change in the labour surplus available in rural areas is thought to be a result of a fundamental change in the pattern of rural labour’s off-farm employment in recent years. About two decades ago, when the movement of rural labour to the urban areas began, it was only the surplus or landless rural labourers who ventured to the cities. Farmers traditionally used their free time between planting and harvesting seasons to engage in off-farm work in the cities on a part- time or temporary basis, to earn some extra income for the family. Farming was still their central activity and their most important source of income.

However, as more and more farmers found longer-term jobs in cities and received higher wagers than they received from farming activities, farmers, especially the younger ones, were attracted to city life and started to seek off-farm work as their full-time employment, abandoning farm work as their priority. The farmers interviewed in Huachi revealed that more than 80 per cent of the young people

(aged from 20-35 years old) from their villages were no longer working on farms.

Therefore, many scholars argue that when the current generation of farmers retire, there will not be enough farmers living in their village, continuing to farm their land (Cai, 2007; Cai & Wang, 2008).

Secondly, the attitude of farmers to off-farm work is over-optimistic. About 70 per cent of the interviewed farmers believed that it was good for young people

(like their sons, daughters, young husbands or wives) to work outside the village, as they could bring a lot of money back to the family. Parents said they would be very proud if their children found a job in the city, rather than work on the

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farmlands. When asked what would happen if there were not enough labourers for farming activities, they commented that they would reduce the area of their crop farming. Because farmers were receiving more income from off-farm work than before, farmers believed that sacrificing farming would not be such a problem.

In contrast, there were some farmers, older farmers in particular, who worried about their farmlands when the younger generation was no longer out there working in the fields. They worried that the land their family had farmed for many generations was not being taken care of by the younger generations. Both the culture of farming and the close connection between farmers and the land would eventually be lost. Farmers’ traditional knowledge and skills at dryland farming, for example, are not being transferred to the younger generations. ‘…Young farmers do not know how to farm nowadays…and many of them do not like farming as they think it is hard and tiring work…’ Male, 70 years old.

Additionally, the majority of farmers left behind to work on farms in the region are over 50 years old. About 70-80 per cent of farmers who participate in off-farm work in cities or towns will retire from off-farm work and then return to their farm work when they turn 50 years old. This is because off-farm industries mainly involve physical labour so for farmers over the age of 50, it is very hard to find any suitable job opportunities. The other 20-30 per cent finds permanent employment and live in the cities. If this trend continues, farming will become a retirement activity for villagers who only return to farmland in their 50s. This of course, is not a sustainable way to manage agriculture or to ensure food security in the long term.

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‘There’s hardly anything that will bring young people back to their

farmlands nowadays, not their parents, not the village leaders, they would

only come back if they could earn higher profits on the land than they could

from working outside…’ Male, 60 years old.

7.3.3 Farmers’ other income sources: livestock & orchards

Farmers’ other income sources, including raising livestock and orchard growing, are also important for their livelihood. However, thevarious vulnerabilities to these activities emerging suggest that farmers’ income will shrink further; they include reduced productivity, an unstable product market, and associated decreases in income,

The way in which the grazing ban has significantly changed farmers’ livestock raising behaviors by shifting livestock from free grazing to pen-fed, was discussed in the previous section. The sharp reduction in the amount of sheep being kept by individual farmers has greatly reduced farmers’ income from livestock raising.

Moreover, some unexpected problems have emerged for individual farmers as a result of the transition to pen-fed livestock.

Firstly, farmers complained that pen-fed livestock requires more labour inputs than free grazing, including harvesting fodder, storing hay or silage, feeding several times a day, and cleaning the pens. It will thus become a big challenge as family members increase their off-farm work. Secondly, the trend towards decreasing rainfall and drier conditions will cause a further decrease in the fodder

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available from alfalfa production. Under these conditions, farmers therefore need to either sell some of their livestock or invest more to purchase fodder, or give over more land to grow fodder.

Orcharding was another income source for some farmers who participated in the afforestation activities in the World Bank and the GFG programs. It was decided by the World Bank and GFG programs that the profits made from mature orchards

(mainly fruit trees such as apple, pear and apricot) would belong to farmers who planted and maintained the trees on their own land. As mentioned previously, the profit from orcharding was a significant incentive for farmers to plant trees on their slopeland. However, the current income from the orcharding is far less than farmers had expected. The fruit trees including apples, apricots, pears have not always grown well, resulting in few economic benefits. Problems mainly included water scarcity, poor technology and management, and an unstable fruit market.

Huang et al. (2001) noted that the apple trees planted on the Plateau were very sensitive to dryness and water scarcity. In periods of drought, like in 2006 in

Huachi, the apple yield decreased by up to 60-70 per cent. Supplementing irrigation by using the rainwater gathered from the rainwater harvesting system, has to some extent, enhanced the resilience of orchards to drought. Nevertheless, small-scale irrigation will not be a sustainable solution due to the lack sufficient quantities of irrigation water. Low fruit prices and unstable markets have also contributed to the low profits from orcharding. As the fruit price was too low

(about USD65 per ton for apple), it was found in some communities that farmers harvested the apples for feeding livestock, or did not harvest the fruit at all. The

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low prices were due to the low quality of fruit and the limited market. Farmers have suffered much disappointment as a result of their move into orcharding.

They have stated that if these failures continue in the coming years, they will cut down the fruit trees and transition the land back to crops.

As a whole, it can be concluded that farmers’ resilience to climate change is being significantly reduced by a combination of emerging and unexpected problems in farming activities, off-farm employment, livestock raising, and orchard management. Alternatives to the current farming system are required in order to adjust or shift the agricultural structure and livelihood strategies to better adapt to climate change. Some possibilities are further discussed in the following section.

7.4 Some possible solutions to enhance farmers’ resilience to climate change

The possible solutions proposed must be able to address the current shortcomings in farming activities and livelihood, and thus be able to (i) enhance the appreciation of the impacts of climate change; (ii) make small holding farming activities more productive and efficient; (iii) create sufficient product markets to make small scale farming economical; and (iv) manage rural human capital resources to enable the sustainability of the agricultural sector. The following section thus outlines some possible alternative ways to achieve more resilient farming and water management at the local community level.

Given the high-level of complexity and uncertainty of the physical, socio- economic, and political aspects of the system on the Plateau, the following

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suggestions may not provide complete answers to the problems raised. However, they at least provide a window into potential policies and a framework for policymakers at both central and local government levels to strive to develop and implement better policies.

7.4.1 Land transfer for more economic and sustainable agriculture

Despite all the effort that has been made, agriculture on the Plateau has suffered from poor productivity, limited economic returns, and climatic sensitivity. The fundamental factors that contribute to uneconomic and unsustainable agriculture including changing climate conditions (including prolonged drought and reduced rainfall), water deficits, and unstable crop markets are addressed. In order to improve agricultural productivity and farm income, particularly in the face of the current and future trend of climate change, some measures must be applied.

A recent landmark policy of ‘farmland use-right transfer’ issued by central China in October 2008 might be able to shift the current inefficient subsistent agriculture on the Plateau to more become more economic, commercial and sustainable. The opportunities and constraints of applying this policy on the Plateau will be discussed, followed by a brief review of the farmland transfer that is happening in some other parts of China.

‘Farmland use-right transfer’ refers to the leasing, subletting, exchanging, and other transfer methods of farmland (only the use-right) between individual farmers. It also happens when agricultural companies or farmers’ cooperatives

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sign land use-right transfer contracts with smallholder farmers. Small pieces of farmland from individual farmers are then connected and farmed together on a large scale by tenant farmers, agricultural companies, or farmers’ cooperatives.

Currently, farmland in China is still collectively owned and leased to individual farmers under long-term land use contracts (about 30-50 years). The land transfer policy allows individual farmers to lease out the use-right of their farmlands to agricultural companies or other farmers who operate on and manage large-scale farmlands. Farmers then benefit from the rental income received from leasing their land. It is believed that this policy boosts the scale of farm production operation, improves land productivity, and provides enough time for farmers to start new income generating activities to sustain their livelihood.

Many scholars believe that the number of farmland use-right transfer cases has increased in rural China over the past decade, as more farmers move to cities for off-farm employment and leave behind their land, particularly in areas in the eastern provinces like Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Sichuan (Yu et al., 2003; Zhang et al.,

2005; Feng et al., 2008; Xie & Fu, 2008; He, 2009). Individual farmers who are predominantly engaged in off-farm work in cities could choose to lease out their small amount of land, rather than leave behind their farmland abandoned in the village.

A study by Shi and Jia (2002) shows that the economic incentive is also a key factor behind individual farmers’ decision to engage in land transfer. Farmland leasing, to some extent, provides a stable rental income for individual farmers (Lu,

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2008; Xie & Fu, 2008). The low profits from the farmlands in recent decades, as a result of the many reasons discussed in the previous chapter, has largely ruined the farmers’ hope and trust in their land. Moreover, the trend towards more unfavorable and/or more unpredictable climatic conditions will make the income from farming activities even more uncertain, particularly for individual smallholder farmers. Therefore, farmers are very happy to lease out their land but only if the rental rate is satisfactory. Freed from the labour-intensive farming activities, farmers are able to get involved in other income generation activities, like livestock raising and off-farm work, etc.

Furthermore, the enlarged scale of farmlands under the land transfer scheme makes the development of modern agriculture with intensive farming technology and machines possible. Studies by Feng et al. (2008) and He (2009) reveal that agricultural productivity and efficiency increases as companies or tenant farmers apply technological innovations, modern farming machines, irrigation facilities, as well as effective farming management on the rented large scale tracts of farmland.

This then greatly improves both the market value of agricultural products and the resilience of the agricultural sector to unfavorable changing climatic conditions in the long-term.

Results from the field survey showed that this innovative practice of land transfer has occurred already, but only occasionally. Land transfers (including leasing, exchanging and subletting) in the local communities were slower compared with rural communities in eastern China. As will be discussed in the following sections, there are some essential factors behind this. It is then a concern that the promotion

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and extension of land transfer will be largely locally constrained by these factors.

Institutional capacity is considered essential for land transfer policy implementation. As authorized by the Central Government, the local governments at county level have issued relevant regulations and guidelines to regularize the transfer of farmland use-rights and protect the rights of the farmers. However, there is insufficient institutional support for policy implementation to facilitate individual farmers’ land transfer at the local community level. For instance, there is a lack of education and training sessions for the local township government and the local community committee on how to manage and guide farmers’ land transfers. This has resulted in ineffective government support and limited amounts of information that individual farmers could access. ‘…Farmers have no idea about the land transfer policy at present…’ (Mr. Wang, village leader)

On the other hand, the status of farmers’ employment structure, livelihood strategy, local micro level economy, agricultural product market, as well as the changing climate, to a large extent, will determine farmers’ possible participation in local land transfers.

Firstly, for most farmers who have off-farm work in nearby cities, their employment is part-time or temporary. This means that they are flexible and can return to their farmland to help during the busy farming periods, such as sowing and harvesting. The people left behind in the village (like the elderly and women) can manage the farming activities that are not time or labour intensive. Therefore local farmers, to some extent, are still connected to their farmlands.

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Secondly, because of the low profits from agriculture in local areas, there are few companies or tenant farmers who would like to contract a large amount of farmland. As discussed before, dryland farming on the Plateau has low productivity and profits where the climate has become much drier over the last decade. Large-scale irrigation is very difficult as there is a water deficit in both surface and underground resources. Therefore, in order to ensure their own profits, the companies or tenant farmers only want to pay relatively low rent for the land.

Local farmers who still have labour available would therefore rather do the farm work themselves in order to pursue a better return.

Thirdly, due to the great uncertainty of climatic conditions, as well as the crop market, both the companies and tenant farmers are hesitant to invest in the agricultural sector or large scale farmland. ‘…there’s no company that currently wants to rent our farmlands as the weather is really bad…but maybe in the future when it won’t be so dry…’ (Ms. Fan, farmer, 45 years old)

In conclusion, the farmland transfer offers a potential path for more economic and sustainable agriculture and improved farmers’ income from farming by gathering small pieces of farmers’ land (e.g. 1-2 hectare per household) to make a large- scale operations (e.g. 80-100 hectares). However, as demonstrated by the current and future possible constraints, enhancing local agricultural resilience through large-scale farmland transfer still has a long way to go on the Plateau.

7.4.2 Water-saving agriculture to improve water use efficiency

Water shortages are severe on the Plateau, particularly under the adverse impacts

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of climate change. This is believed to be a vital factor behind the poor agricultural productivity. Both high evaporation and limited rainfall lead to low soil moisture and restricted water availability (both surface and ground water) most of the time

(Sillon et al., 2003; Shao et al., 2004). Therefore, in order to alleviate water shortages in agriculture, efficiency of rainwater use and soil water conservation should be improved. Water-saving approaches that provide a potential to further improve agricultural productivity may enhance farmers’ resilience to future climate change.

Water-saving agriculture refers to ‘a farming practice that is able to take full advantage of rainfall and irrigation facilities’ (Deng et al., 2006, p.27). The principle idea is to use every possible water-saving approach to maximize water use efficiency for rain-fed agriculture, or minimize the input of water for irrigated farmland. The fundamental measures in a water-saving agricultural system include spatial and temporal adjustment of water resources, effective use of natural rainfall, rational use of irrigation water, and increase plant water use efficiency (Deng et al., 2006).

At present, water-saving agriculture includes three primary irrigation practices including water-saving irrigation, limited irrigation, and dryland cultivation, mainly in the north and northwestern part of China (Deng et al., 2006). As the irrigated area is unlikely to expand due to water scarcity, supplemental irrigation, a combination of limited irrigation and dryland farming, is becoming an ideal choice for improving crop yields on the Plateau (Bai & Dong, 2001; Su et al.,

2007).

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Limited irrigation is an irrigation method that allows the soil water deficit to develop at certain non-critical stages of crop growth but provides supplemental irrigation at the critical stages of growth (Shan et al., 2000). Given the large dryland farming areas with insufficient water for irrigation, the limited irrigation approach might be a potential solution for crop yield improvement on the Plateau.

Good irrigation scheduling is required to ensure the precise timing of supplemental irrigation and that the amount of water applied matches the actual field conditions and crop needs. Therefore the knowledge of the crops’ drought sensitivity at different stages of plant development is essential for the application of supplemental irrigation. A study by Zhang et al. (1999) and Shangguan et al.

(2000) shows that winter wheat is sensitive to water stress from stem elongation

(jointing) to heading stages, and from heading to milking stages on most areas of the Plateau. Supplemental irrigation is then recommended at these growth stages.

Deng et al. (2002) also demonstrate that a single irrigation of 600m3per hectare

(equivalent to 30 per cent of the volume of irrigation water required for a full cropping season and the maximum yield) applied at the jointing stage yielded up to 75 per cent of the yield of the fully-irrigated wheat.

Moving to a more efficient irrigation system is also a key element in water-saving irrigation. For instance, drip irrigation and sprinkler irrigation are more efficient than traditional border or furrow flood irrigation (Deng et al., 2006). Other innovative water-saving irrigation technology, such as root-zone drip irrigation, and under-mulch irrigation can also be introduced to improve water use efficiency.

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As discussed in previous sections, local farmers use the harvested rainwater for small-scale irrigation only on their backyard gardens or orchards. This is because farmers believe that the stored rainwater is not enough for large-scale crop irrigation. However, rainwater harvesting could become a strategic measure for irrigation on dryland farming if its water use efficiency, as well as its irrigation efficiency, could be improved through the measures mentioned above. For instance, a water cistern with a capacity of 50 m3 can provide supplementary irrigation water for 0.13ha (=2 Mu) of winter wheat and ensure a yield of over 4.5 tonnes per hectare, which is 50 per cent higher than a yield with no irrigation

(Deng et al., 2006).

Some other water-saving agricultural practices, like terracing and mulching technology for soil water improvement, have already been applied to large areas of the Plateau. Both the advantages and weaknesses of these technologies have been discussed in Chapter 6. However, new technologies for water-saving agriculture, such as combining biological water-saving measures with engineering solutions and irrigation forecasting technology, have not been widely promoted or adopted (Deng et al., 2003).

7.5 Governance: institutional capacity, policies and management to cope with climate change

Institutional capacity building for environmental management, as well as for policy-making processes in relation to climate change adaptation, play a vital role in natural resource conservation and the sustainable development on the Loess

Plateau. As discussed in previous sections, a new balanced natural resource

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system with conserved natural resources has been built on the Plateau. The natural resource system is now more adaptive and resilient than before, and farmers’ livelihoods have improved as a result.

However, will the institutional capacity, particularly at local government level, be able to manage and conserve the newly built ecosystem in the face of climate change, and how can environmental management and policy processes be improved to enable the natural resource system to increase its resilience? The following sections will review and evaluate the current institutional structure, awareness, management, capacity, as well as policy schemes in place, which deal with both natural resource management and climate change issues on central and local government levels.

7.5.1 China’s local government response to climate change

The Chinese Government structure is based on a five-tier hierarchical structure with Central Government at the top (in Beijing), and four tiers of local governments; the provincial, the prefecture, the county, and the township level.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of

Environmental Protection (MEP) are the two key ministries at the national level which are responsible for national law, general guidance, development and action plans for environmental conservation, energy and climate change. The local

Development and Reform Commissions (DRC) and Environmental Protection

Bureaus (EPB) are the key departments which can implement national environmental, energy and forthcoming climate change policy at local levels.

Certain practical or managerial guidelines are set by local governments,

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responding to the laws, guidance, and plans set by the Central Government.

In 1990 China established the inner-ministerial National Climate Change Policy

Coordinating Committee. However, this only operates at the national level. The committee takes responsibility for policies and measures set at the national level to address climate change. However, there is no clear division of activities with inter-governmental agencies at a lower level regarding climate change issues

(Teng & Gu, 2007).

Without coordinating the committees at the local government level, the responsibilities are unclear and there is inefficient coordination between different relevant departments (e.g. environmental protection bureaus, agricultural bureaus, the water resource bureau, the forestry bureau and the meteorological bureau), particularly for climate change mitigation and adaptation issues. Climate change thus has been treated primarily as an international issue to be dealt with by the

Central Government and as an issue well beyond the jurisdiction and responsibility of local governments (Qi et al., 2008, p.392).

Climate change has not been a priority for local governments in China, at least not until recently. There is also the argument that climate change mitigation, for example, would work against local economic interests as reducing greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption could slow economic growth (Pan, 2003). In addition, local governments neither feel pressure to act on climate change from the public nor have to deal with international pressure (Qi et al., 2008, p.393).

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There is also little motivation for local governments to work on climate change.

Local governments are focused more on local economic and GDP development than environmental protection. Economic merits are overemphasized and environmental outcomes are thus largely neglected (Chen et al., 2007). Economic development is the major indicator used for evaluating the performance of local officials for promotion. Economic development and political promotion are closely related (Qi et al., 2008). This makes local government pursue local economic development and they show no sign of willingness to take serious action to address climate change issues, like cutting emissions to lower levels.

A lack of awareness of the urgency of climate change problems by local government officials is sometimes another reason behind slow governmental reactions. Xu et al. (2006) argue that responses of local government to problems are too reactive, dramatic and inflexible. Action will only be taken when the problems have become too apparent to ignore. Indeed, climate change will most likely result in much damage such as economic loss due to drought and reduced land productivity due to decreased rainfall at regional and local levels. However, as the long-term consequences of climate change are unpredictable and uncertain, local government only pays attention to the short-term consequences rather than their underlying sources or root causes.

Moreover, it is accepted that all levels of government, particularly local government, face the challenge of lacking the capacity to deal with climate change issues (Qi et al., 2008). Institutional capacity determines what and how much a local government can do. Technical capacity in relation to climate change

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research, mitigation, and adaptation is concentrated at the central level, but is relatively low at local government levels. Interviews with officials at the county level demonstrated that they did not have a systematic understanding of the climate change issue. They know that climate change is a global climate phenomenon, which causes global warming, rainfall variation and more frequent extreme climate events; however, they have no clear picture of why it happens, what the long-term consequences of the climatic change are, and how to mitigate and adapt to these. The limited information and knowledge of climate change they have is mainly from related governmental documents, the newspaper, television, and other media. Few of them have attended training workshops or seminars on climate change given by higher levels governments or other research institutes.

Therefore, institutional capacity building, particularly for local government agencies, is very much in need.

7.5.2 Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into policies

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation refers to the integration of adaptation policy and measures in ongoing or forthcoming (national) sectoral planning and decision-making processes (Bouwer & Aerts, 2006). Howden et al. (2007) also state that climate change policy should interact with policies on sustainable development and natural resource management. It has been found that there is a close linkage between existing environmental management and climate change in

China’s policy framework and that structure is lacking. This is known as ‘policy irrelevancy’, in that climate change adaptation policy is largely being dealt with in isolation from other environmental issues (Schmidhuber & Tubiello, 2007). Thus

‘mainstreaming’ climate change adaptation into national and/or local policies is

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still a critical issue for China.

Policies of adaptation to climate change have been identified as significant, particularly for improving both management and decision-making (Easterling et al., 2003; Aggarwal et al., 2004). These policies can involve adaptation activities such as developing infrastructure, building capacity, as well as modifying the decision-making environment under which management-level adaptation activities normally occur (Adger et al., 2007). However, adaptation is still one of the biggest challenges faced by China’s policy makers. There is no systematic national strategy for adaptation to climate change in China; only some adaptation activities have been partly integrated into development policy and planning at the national and regional levels.

Both policy making and the bureaucratic management system in China are top- down command and control systems. China’s national and local policies have been mostly prescribed and enforced using ‘top-down’ approaches with limited

‘bottom-up or responsive initiatives from local communities and farmers (Teng &

Gu, 2007). Therefore the rigid political system in China does not encourage innovation or policy initiation by local governments or local communities.

Despite this, some of the most important policy innovations in China started locally and were later accepted and promoted nation-wide by the Central

Government (Qi et al., 2008). A local innovation can lead to a big national change.

For example, the agricultural reform of the Household Responsibility System was initiated by farmers’ experimental practice in villages in Anhui and Sichuan

Provinces. Given the localized climate change impacts and current and future

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potential adaptation practices by local individual farmers, it is important to integrate the local voice into policy-making processes.

7.6 Chapter Summary

This chapter reflects on all the significant issues relevant to the vulnerability of natural resource systems, agriculture, and farmer’s livelihoods to climate change that have been raised in previous chapters. The discussions are in-depth interpretations and analysis of all these data and information collected from both the Plateau and Huachi.

The fundamental shortcoming of the Loess Plateau environmental conservation model is the absence of an understanding of climate change and its potential impacts. Some emerging vulnerabilities of the natural resource system to the changing climatic conditions are already evident. For instance, the long-term effectiveness of afforestation has been constrained by the unfavorable trend of decreasing rainfall and the intensification of droughts. The incentive mechanism of environmental conservation by ‘the compensation to farmers for land retirement’ could possibly be short lived if no further incentives are maintained when payments ceased. Many factors, including income status and impacts from the changing climate on land productivity, would affect farmers’ land retirement behaviours post program. Moreover, the trends of decreasing rainfall and more frequent drought events could also potentially affect farmers’ current sheep rearing practices (pen-fed) as well as their attitude and responses to the grazing ban in significant ways.

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Secondly, the determinants of farmers’ adaptive capacity to climate change are explored and analyzed. Farmers’ awareness of climate change and their recognition of change are basic to their response process, enabling them to identify and implement useful adaptation mechanisms. However, farmers’ responses are varied. The factors behind their different responses include personal knowledge and farming skills, endowments of farming infrastructure and technology, and access to information and institutional support. It is concluded that all these factors determine the adaptive capacity of individual farmers to climate change.

Thirdly, some aspects of farmers’ adaptive capacity have been undermined. This resulted in farmers’ becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change. More unstable farm income, due to uncertain and unpredictable climatic conditions, would further contribute to more vulnerable and unsustainable farmers’ livelihoods on the Plateau.

After that, some possible alternative ways to achieve more resilient farming and water management are discussed. ‘Farmland use-right transfer’ is a recent landmark policy in rural China, developed to increase the scale of farm production operation, improve land productivity, and provide funds as well as time for farmers to start new income generating activities to sustain their livelihoods. This innovative practice of land transfer has occurred already, but only occasionally on the Plateau. The reasons for the slow uptake are explored, including the poor institutional capacity, farmers’ livelihoods, the current state of the local micro economy, the instability of the agricultural products markets, as well as the effects

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from the changing climate. Moreover, water-saving irrigation practices is considered as another potential way to improve the resilience of farming on the

Plateau. Supplemental irrigation, based on the precise timing and the amount of water to match actual field conditions and crop needs, is considered as a possible solution to increased water scarcity for crops on the Plateau.

Finally, the issues of institutional capacity, policies and management to cope with climate change are discussed. It is approved that institutional capacity for environmental management, as well as for policy-making processes in relation to climate change adaptation, play a significant role in natural resource conservation and sustainable development on the Plateau. However, climate change has not been a priority for local governments in China. Limited motivation and the lack of urgency in responding to climate change problems by local governments are blamed. Therefore, institutional capacity building, particularly for local government agencies, is very much needed. Furthermore, ‘mainstreaming’ climate change adaptation into national and/or local policies is another critical issue for

China. Given the localized climate change impacts, and current and future potential adaptation practices by individual farmers, it is important to mainstream and integrate the local voice into policy-making processes of climate change and adaptation.

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CHAPTER EIGHT CONCLUSIONS AND

RECOMMENDATIONS

8.1 Climate change: implications for natural resource management

Climate change is an inevitable reality which is causing a trend towards more severe and frequent droughts on the Loess Plateau. As shown in previous chapters, it increasingly presents a major challenge for all aspects of the natural resource system, including water, soil, and vegetation. An appreciation of the impacts of climate change on the environmental and social systems is thus required to improve natural resource management for more sustainable environmental development, which would eventually enhance the resilience of agriculture as an industry and the individual farmers’ livelihood.

8.1.1 Climate change: a vital challenge for natural resource management

As discussed in the previous chapter, the absence of an understanding of climate change and the lack of integration of this understanding into natural resource management has already undermined the effectiveness of ecosystem conservation on the Loess Plateau. For instance, a large number of infant and mature trees that were planted under the afforestation scheme died because of the drier weather and prolonged droughts. The mechanism of farmland retirement for the purpose of environmental conservation might fail in the long-term because of increased economic pressure on farmers. To compensate for the adverse impacts that climate change will have on their land productivity and livelihood, farmers may

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seek to take land back out of retirement to generate additional income.

Understanding the emerging challenges resulting from climate change is a complex task for natural resource managers, policymakers, as well as conservation stakeholders. It calls for a shifting of the conservation objective from

‘preventing ecological exploitation and/or destruction’ to ‘managing the change to minimize the loss’ on the Plateau. This shift will have implications for the development and management of natural resources, and for future conservation programs.

A good and broad understanding of the possible changes to ecosystems, and the implications of those changes for conservation and natural resource management, are essential to effectively address and respond to climate change (Dunlop &

Brown, 2008). More research is thus needed to improve information about climate change on the Plateau. However, to some extent, uncertainties will still exist in terms of changes in ecosystem processes, interactions between species, resilience of biodiversity, and changing threats (new species, altered hydrology and land use change) to ecosystem conservation.

8.1.2 Adaptive management of natural resources: building resilience to climate change

Evidence clearly shows that natural resources respond in very different ways to climate change on the Plateau. Changes in water availability and seasonal patterns, soil water level, soil erosion, and land productivity, have been detected due to changing climatic conditions. Such changes will flow on to affect the structure,

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function, as well as the resilience of the ecosystem. However, ‘when certain ways of thinking, knowledge, and information are excluded from the decision-making process of environmental management, the ability to adaptively respond to natural resource problems is constrained’ (Wilcock, 2007, p.455). The imposed impacts and uncertainties of climate change are making the situation more complicated.

Therefore, managing the natural resource systems with the added stresses and/or changes associated with climate change on the Plateau, poses a challenge for natural resource managers and policymakers.

The concept of adaptive management, which offers reflective options for environmental management decision-making, has been embraced by natural resource managers worldwide (Allan, 2007; Wilcock, 2007). Adaptive management is learning from doing; learning through the implementation of policies, strategies and decisions on particular natural resource management issues.

The biggest failure of ecosystem management on the Plateau is that people have not been responsive or learning anything from their management of natural resources. Tompkins and Adger (2004, p.11) declare that ‘adaptive management processes, informed by iterative learning about the ecosystem and earlier natural resource management successes and/or failures, increase resilience, which in turn can increase people’s ability to respond to the threats of long-term climate change’.

Waitt et al. (2006) claim that an integrative and adaptive decision-making process of natural resource management needs to be responsive to both social and ecological concerns. Lee (1999) explains how this type of adaptive management

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can be used to pursue the dual goals of greater ecological stability and the development of institutions which have a more flexible system of resource management. Without considering and integrating social resilience (like farmers’ sustainable livelihood strategies), the natural resource management scheme on the

Plateau will be short-lived. Therefore insights from adaptive ecosystem management suggest that building resilience into both environmental and social systems is the optimal way to deal with future surprises or unknowable risks

(Tompkins & Adger, 2003).

An adaptive management approach, therefore, may provide an alternative approach to use the lessons learned at the community and government level to improve the effectiveness of natural resource management. Imperial (1999) indicated that a proper ecosystem management approach should be able to recognize the complexity, interconnectedness and dynamic character of ecological systems; be suited to local conditions; incorporate people who are affected by or who affect the ecosystem; and emphasize interagency co-operation.

Wilcock (2007) suggests that including stakeholders, as well as their different ways of thinking, can offer a more flexible and truly adaptive response to natural resource management. To achieve this, he also suggests that three key steps need to occur: (i) understanding the institutional structure (e.g. institutional rigidity and the ways in which it operates); (ii) understanding and respecting the different domains of knowledge which are to be integrated; and (iii) instigating an appropriate framework through which different perspectives are included in a considered way. Knowledge from stakeholders that is integrated and represented

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in a proper way allows management to be responsive to concerns, and thus be adaptive (Berkes, et al., 2003). However, very limited involvement and consultation of different stakeholders happened in the natural resource management programs on the Plateau.

Top-down command and control approaches in natural resource management decision-making frameworks can have detrimental effects on managing in an adaptive manner (Rogers, 2003; Allan & Curtis, 2005). This is well illustrated by the cases of the World Bank and GFG programs on the Plateau. The government’s mindset of unsustainable management of natural resources on the Plateau focuses, on only ‘getting things done’ in a linear fashion, and attempts to make a ‘quick- fix’. Decisions were then made quickly without assessing particular options, and without understanding the opportunities that have been lost in the fundamental process of relationships.

For instance, in the GFG program, township government and village committees had the authority to target the areas of the households for land retirement. There was a lack of positive participation and consultation with the local community and farmers before making decisions. This resulted in weak ownership of the program by local people, which lead to a failure of some long-term aspects of the conservation program. It would also eventually undermine farmers’ trust in the government, as farmers feel they do not have the right to manage and make decisions on their own land. Moreover, some farmers commented that the survival rate of planted trees during the past decade on their retired land was very low due to poor drought-resistance of the introduced trees species. Farmers complained

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that the situation would not be that bad if the government would consult local farmers on what types of trees would be more appropriate for local conditions before the large scale afforestation.

The local governments want to plant the trees on the hills as soon as they

can, as the upper level governments will come and inspect the good

performance. They (the local governments) are never concerned with how

long the tree will live… (a farmer, interviewed but did not want to tell his

name).

In conclusion, an adaptive approach within an integrated policy framework, coupled with a learning-based and multi-stakeholder involving management system, is needed urgently. This may act to increase both environmental and social resilience and hence increase in the system’s ability to respond to climate change (Tompkins & Adger, 2003).

8.2 Adaptation strategies: reducing farmers’ vulnerability

Agriculture is both the main use of the land and the primary income source for people on the Loess Plateau. Agricultural production in much of the region must contend with poor land productivity (particularly on slopeland) and water deficits that cause large reductions in crop yields. In addition, climate change, which has already impacted the Plateau through decreased annual rainfall, reduced spring rainfall, increased inter-seasonal rainfall variability, and more frequent terminal drought events, is making dryland farming and rural livelihoods more vulnerable.

Adaptation thus becomes essential for reducing these adverse impacts on local

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farming activities and farmers’ livelihoods.

Farmers need to enhance their capacity to respond to both current and future climate impacts that could lie outside their experienced coping range. Despite the importance of the impacts of climate change, farmers’ adaptation in agriculture does not function and evolve with respect to these climatic stimuli alone (Smit &

Skinner, 2002). There’s a complexity of interactions between the ecological, economic and social conditions of individual farmers’ adaptation processes which can promote, facilitate or even constrain adaptation. Ultimately, adaptations in agriculture occur via farmers’ decisions to employ technology, to choose a crop, to change a practice, to modify inputs or to participate in a program. Bryant et al.

(2000) stress that these decisions are made in the context of prevailing economic conditions; institutional and regulatory arrangements; and existing technology, policy, financial systems and social norms.

Therefore if we want to make local and regional agriculture more adaptive, and farmers’ livelihoods more resilient in the face of climate change, we need to look at a number of factors behind farmers’ agricultural adaptation on the Plateau. This will be discussed in the following sections. It is also hoped that it will be possible to transfer the lessons learned on the Plateau to other places where farmers are facing the similar climatic stress on their dryland farming activities.

8.2.1 Agricultural technologies for climate change adaptation

Lybbert and Sumner (2010) argue that the core challenge for climate change adaptation in agriculture is to: (i) produce more food; (ii) more efficiently; and (iii)

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under more volatile production conditions. Agricultural technologies are essential to enable farmers to meet these core challenges. The technology options for local farmers to adopt include new crops and varieties, new water and land management and agricultural production management and practices.

The introduction of new crop species and improved varieties of crops can build crop resistance to a variety of stresses which may result from climate change.

New varieties and crops could thus offer farmers greater flexibility and diversity when adapting to climate change. Technological advances in crop yields are often pointed to as a way of increasing agricultural productivity. However, in addition to yield gains, the need to develop new varieties of crops to cope with climate change is emphasized by both climate and agriculture experts. Crop varieties with enhanced tolerance to drought, increased temperature and new pests, are in demand. Agricultural researchers and extension agents are playing significant roles in helping farmers to identify new varieties or species that may be better adapted to changing climatic conditions. This can potentially strengthen farmers’ agricultural systems by increasing yields, improving crop’s drought resistance, boosting resistance to pests and diseases, and also by capturing new market opportunities (Clement et al., 2011).

It is accepted that climate variability directly affects crop production. For example, it can constrain the supply of soil moisture in rain-fed agriculture or affect surface water runoff and shallow groundwater recharge in irrigated agriculture. Solving the problem of water shortages has been an important focus of adaptation in agriculture. In non-irrigated areas, water conservation strategies (including

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conservation farming techniques such as terracing and mulching) and rainwater harvesting techniques are adaptation options for farmers. In places with limited access to irrigation, well-timed supplemental irrigation can make a substantial difference to productivity. Therefore, water management is central to farmers’ adaptation to climate change as weather is becoming much drier and water is much scarcer.

Consequently, switching production to a new crop or a new technology may increase overall agricultural production and enhance the farming system’s resilience to climate change. However, it may not be economically viable due to crop marketing issues, higher capital input and additional operating costs. All these factors will considerably constrain farmers’ capacity to adopt these adaptation options. For instance, the households with higher incomes are more likely to adopt adaptation options in agriculture such as new technologies, given greater access to information and other resources, as well as greater ability to afford the extra costs of adaptation. There will also be competition for family labour when implementing adaptation practices that may be labour intensive, such as mulching. This will then provide the opportunity cost for households who are also involved in off-farm employment. It is therefore concluded that technology options for adaptation must be made more available and accessible to individual farmers, but without overlooking complementary capacity and investments.

8.2.2 Farmers’ perception and access to information of climate change

Farmers’ responses to climate variations are determined by various factors.

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Gbetibouo (2009) argues that a farmers’ response primarily depends on their perception of climatic change and variability. Farmers must be aware of the changes before they take any action in response to these changes. Therefore, more recent studies have begun to focus on farm-level decision-making in the adaptation process by researching farmers’ perceptions and their risk management choices (Choitti et al., 1997; Smit et al., 2000; Bryant et al., 2000; Smit & Skinner,

2002; Maddison, 2006).

The results for Huachi show that farmers had observed an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall. Farmers’ perceptions of changes in the climate appear to be in line with actual climate data from the local meteorological station. It was also found in this research that farmers’ perception of climate change, based on their knowledge and skills from experiencing climatic events, have evolved to better cope with climatic stresses. For instance, farmers shifted their crop patterns and varieties based on their perception of climate variation and their interpretation of the changing climatic trend. Local farmers are translating their perceptions of climate change and their knowledge into agricultural decisions.

Nevertheless, the capacity farmers have to perceive or predict changes in the climate has been undermined by the increasing unpredictability and uncertainty of climatic and environmental conditions. Therefore good access to scientific climate information is required to inform and facilitate improved perceptions of changing trends.

The development of information systems capable of forecasting weather and

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conditions associated with climate change is an important technological advancement for improving farmers’ ability to perceive and respond to climate change. Weather predictions which forecast days or weeks ahead can assist farmers’ timing of operations such as planting or harvesting. Long-term climate change information, like seasonal forecasting, can inform farmers about future climatic variability and the probability of extreme events. This can potentially aid farmers’ risk assessment and ultimately improve production. Hence, weather and climate information provided at a local level, will make it possible for farmers to prepare to make changes and assist farm-level adaptation.

8.2.3 Role of agricultural policy in adaptation

Cohen and Miller (2001) suggest that the ability of farmers to adapt will depend on institutional signals (like agricultural policies), which may be partially influenced by climate change. A general goal of policy development should be to increase the flexibility of agricultural systems and halt trends that will constrain climate change adaptation (Rosenzweig & Hillel, 1998; Lewandrowski &

Schimmelpfennig, 1999).

Government programs and policies, such as the national GFG program, land use and transfer regulations, agricultural water policies, and the free rural labour transferring policy, significantly influence agricultural practices at the local community level. This study has found that programs and policies may act to either promote or hamper farmers’ adaptation to climate change. It suggests, for instance, that the free rural labour transferring policy may decrease the propensity of farmers to adapt. It is therefore suggested that the policies designed to promote

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adaptation in the agricultural sector must recognize the dynamic nature of both the biophysical and social factors in agriculture.

8.2.4 Farmers’ off-farm work: implications to the agricultural sector and food security

In most rural communities of the Plateau, there has been a tremendous increase in the number of farmers who engage in off-farm employment and move to urban cities, particularly over the last decade. The economic benefit is considered a key incentive for this large-scale labour movement (particularly of young people) from the farm sector to off-farm sectors. Poor agricultural productivity associated with less rainfall and drier weather also drives farmers to seek other possible strategies to increase their family income and improve their livelihoods.

Some scholars suggest that finding off-farm wage employment is also one way in which farmers can adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change (Bryan et al.,

2009). The increasing number of rural labourers becoming predominantly involved with off-farm work, rather than farm work, could have a major impact on the regions’ future agricultural development and food security in the longer term. The labourers left behind doing farm work are mostly men and women above the age of 50. When this group of farmers is not able to farm the land any more, they will have to abandon their farmlands, as the younger generations will not replace them.

Therefore something must be done to bring farmers voluntarily back to their land and make both agriculture and farmers’ livelihoods more sustainable. The only

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way to rebuild farmers’ confidence in their land is to ensure higher profits from the land than from working outside it. Farm support (inputs and subsides) from government, adaptive and flexible farming systems, access to more stable markets, and the development of the local economy, are important strategies for ensuring a profitable and sustainable agricultural sector. It is therefore necessary to integrate all these considerations into a core policy and decision-making process.

8.2.5 Institutional capacity to adapt to climate change

Institutional capacity is increasingly recognized as essential in relation to climate change adaptation. The institutional structure, awareness, management and policy schemes of both the central and local government largely determine the institutional capacity. It is argued that the institutional capacity of the Chinese governments, particularly the local governments, to deal with climate change and adaptation is relatively limited and has been constrained by many factors. The insights gained from institutional processes and the implementation of specific climate related policies also reveal that climate change issues are largely neglected in the institutional capacity building process. Local governments in particular lack a systematic understanding and institutional response to climate change issues, as climate change is not a policy priority for them at all.

Therefore mainstreaming climate change and adaptation into key national, regional and local development planning and regulatory processes is a critical priority for China. It is important to build institutional capacity and integrate climate change into all areas of government business in order to: (i) enhance information and knowledge flows and develop incentives and flexibility between

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central and local governments; and (ii) develop policies and programs that promote economic and social development in order to sustain farmer' livelihoods.

8.3 Recommendations In conclusion, the following recommendations can be made to improve farmers’ resilience to the adverse impacts of climate change, as well as to enhance the institutional capacity to support farmers’ coping with both current and future climate change.

To manage uncertainty by adaptive management, ‘learning by doing’, in order to make systems more resilient and flexible to climate change.

Climate change adaptation is a learning process. Adaptive management in response to climate change should be mainstreamed into policy and decision- making processes, in order to deal with the uncertainty of climate change inherent in the complex environmental and social systems on the Loess Plateau. It offers a management strategy that can embrace the uncertainty of climate change and manage the natural and agricultural systems adaptively. Given the complexity of the environmental and social system, different stakeholders need to collaborate in across a range of disciplines and share information, including decision makers, natural resource managers, meteorological and agricultural scientists, researchers, as well as individual farmers.

To improve farmers’ ability to respond to the changing climatic conditions, by developing a more convenient and efficient access to climate information and other adaptation approaches.

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It is necessary to improve farmers’ access to and use of climate science and information. The information provided by the climate predication and broadcasting system at the local level must be simple, understandable, current, accessible and transparent to farmers. Moreover, there is an urgent need to share the new agricultural technology or adaptation approaches and research results with farmers, in order to supplement their local skills and knowledge, and to help them survive any climate change shocks.

To improve the capacity of farmers to harness new technology or practices to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change, by offering efficient physical supports (e.g. financial support, technical dissemination) and institutional supports (e.g. agricultural policies).

New farming technologies and practices are needed to enhance farmers’ adaptive capacity to the changing climatic conditions, such as the more frequent drought events on the Plateau. Support from government should include financial support to individual farmers to cover the extra cost of adopting new technologies, as well as technological dissemination and training sessions. Furthermore, institutional support, such as agricultural policies, is also needed to provide local farmers with a policy framework for better adaptation and response to climate change. It is emphasized that the right types of policies would assist in reducing vulnerability, enhance the knowledge base and institutional capacity, and facilitate adaptation and innovation.

Clear definitions of institutional roles and responsibilities (particularly at local government level) are fundamental for successful climate change adaptation.

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Climate change and adaptation is confined to the central government agencies working in the environmental field (for example, the Ministry of Environmental

Protection) in China; however, climate change must be considered across the breadth of the central government, as well as the depth of government agencies, i.e. from the Central Government down to the local level. Vertical links between local and national levels and various agencies should also be established.

Further research is needed on the ‘bottom-up’ approach of vulnerability assessment to climate change.

Both climate change and vulnerability to climate change are local issues. A

‘bottom-up’ vulnerability assessment approach allows the diagnosis of location specific climatic variability, the nature of vulnerabilities, and the location specific technologies and good practices to cope with and reduce the impact of climate change. Within the centralized political scheme of the Chinese Government, there is a need for more research into ‘bottom-up’ policy frameworks for climate change adaptation.

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Appendices

Appendix A. Ethics Approval

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Appendix B. Interview guide for the semi-structured interview

A guide for semi-structured interview with smallholder farmers • Farmers’ income structure and sources. • The significance of farming activities to an individual farmers’ life. • What difference in the weather/climate do farmers note compared with 30 years ago? • What kind of impacts is the changed climate having on farming systems and farmers’ livelihoods? • What adaptive practices do farmers adopt to cope with the adverse impacts of changed climate variability at a local community level? • The effects of these agricultural adaptation approaches. • Plans and strategies for their future farming activities to cope with climate uncertainty.

A guide for semi-structured interviews with village and township leaders • Key aspects of changing climate on local farming and farmers’ livelihood development. • Facilitations and supports from local government to strength individual farmers’ adaptive capacity to climatic changes. • Capacity building opportunities available for village and/or township government leaders relating to climate change. • Polices that improve farmers’ productivity and adaptive capacity, including polices on new technology extension, farming infrastructure development, transparent market and price scheme, etc.

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Appendix C. Topics and outline for the two focus groups

Focus group discussion ONE: institutional representatives

Topic: Impacts of climatic change on the local agricultural sector and adaptation practices and measures to cope with its adverse impacts. Sub-topics: • Recognition of climate change and climatic uncertainty. • Current and future vulnerabilities to climatic exposure-sensitivities. • Policies and measures for agriculture to better cope with the adverse impacts of climate change. • Strategies for capacity building on decision-making and/or policy-making for adaptation to climate change.

Main participants: Representatives from the Huachi Water Resource and Soil Conservation Bureau, the Huachi Agricultural Bureau, the Huachi Forestry Bureau and the Huachi Climate Station. Time: about 2 hours

Focus group discussion TWO: smallholder farmers

Topic: Smallholder farmers’ vulnerabilities and adaptation practices to climate change at a local community level.

Sub-topics: • Vulnerability to climate change of dryland smallholder farmers. • Exposure-sensitivity of rain-fed farming to changing climatic conditions. • Current adaptation measures and practices to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change (i.e. drought, reduced rainfall etc.) • Future vulnerability to climatic change trends.

Main participants: • Farmers were selected from high, medium and low-income groups (8-13 people). Female farmers were encouraged to participate.

Time: about 2 hours

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Appendix D. Farmers’ questionnaire

Date______Interviewee______(Male/Female✔) Interviewer______Questionnaire Number______

QUESTIONS

1. How much farmland (including slopeland and terrace) does your family currently farm on (unit: mu)? (select one ✔) Less than 5 5 to 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 or more

2. How much terraced land does your family currently farm on (unit: mu)? (select one ✔) Less than 5 5 to 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 or more

3. How many labourers are in your family? (select one ✔) None 1 2 3 4 5 or more

4. Are you full time part-time or not involved in farm work? (select one ✔)

5. Which of the following types of crops did you plant in 2008? (Multiple-choice ✔) A. Winter wheat B. Maize C. Photo D. Soybean E. Millet F. Sorghum G. Vegetables H. Other____

6. Which of the following types of crops did you plant in the 1980s? (Multiple-choice ✔) A. Winter wheat B. Maize C. Photo D. Soybean E. Millet F. Sorghum G. Vegetables H. Other____

7. What is your total annual income in 2008 (unit: Yuan RMB)? (select one ✔) Less than 1000 1001 to 3000 3001 to 5000 5001 to 8000 8001 or more

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8. What is the percentage of your family’s agricultural income to total annual income in 2008? (select one ✔) Less than 10% 11% to 30% 31% to 50% 51% to 80% 81% or more

9. How many sheep did you raise before the grazing ban? (select one ✔) Less than 10 11 to 20 21 to 40 41 to 50 51 or more

10. How many sheep did you raise after the grazing ban? (select one ✔) Less than 10 11 to 20 21 to 40 41 to 50 51 or more

11. How important do you think weather conditions are to agriculture? (select one ✔) Not very important 1 2 3 4 5 Extremely important

12. Please rank the following crops (planted on slopeland) based on drought resistance (fill the numbers 1 through 5, 1 is most drought resilient and 5 is least drought resistant). Winter wheat Maize without mulching Soybean Potato Millet

13. Please rank the following crops (planted on terrace) based on drought resistance (fill the numbers 1 through 6, 1 is most drought resilient and 6 is least drought resistant). Winter wheat Maize with mulching Maize without mulching Soybean Potato Vegetables

14. Which of the following approaches have you applied before or are using now? (Multiple-choices ✔) Terracing the slopeland

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Choose drought-resistant crop varieties Water-harvesting systems for drinking water Water-harvesting systems for irrigation water Mulching technology Change farming plan due to weather reports

15. What is the difference between the slopeland and terrace for your farming activities?

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16. Can you list the constraints for your farming activities at present?

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17. What are the key factors affecting you in deciding which crops to plant?

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18. What are the key changes of your or your family members’ off-farm working to your whole family’s livelihood status?

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19. What are the key changes in the weather compared to 20 years ago in your community?

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20. What are the impacts of the changing climate on your farming and your livelihood?

______

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