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The Economy of Poland General Overview

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The Economy of Poland General Overview The Economy of Poland General Overview Marek Rozkrut, Chief Economist Ernst & Young Poland Sydney, May 6th, 2013 General information about the Polish economy Poland – a general overview ► Population: 38.5 million ► Size: 312 685 km2 ► Capital city: Warsaw ► GDP 2012: 381.2 bn EUR (3% of EU GDP) ► GDP growth in 2012: 1.9% ► GDP per capita 2012: 9 900 EUR ► Currency: Polish Złoty (floating exchange rate regime) ► Inflation rate: 1.0% (Mar. 2013 / Mar. 2012) inflation target: 2.5% +/- 1 pp. ► NBP reference rate: 3.25% ► Unemployment rate: 10.7% (Mar. 2013) ► The largest stock exchange in the CEE ► Selected memberships: NATO, EU, WTO, Schengen Agreement Page 1 Polish production and exports structure ► Production structure of the Polish economy has been converging towards the structure of developed European economies. ► Machinery and transport equipment, manufactured goods, food, and chemicals account for nearly 80% of Polish exports. Other Services Rental, Hiring Electricity, Gas, 6% and Real Water and 2011 GVA Poland Agriculture/For Exports structure by product (SITC), 2012 Estate estry/Fishing Waste 5% 5% Mining 4% Finance/ 3% 1% Food and live animals Insurance Information 10% 4% Media and 13% 2% Telecommuni- Beverages and tobacco Construction cations 5% 8% 4% Crude materials inedible, Education and except fuels Training 9% Mineral fuels, lubricants and 5% Manufacturing Wholesale & related materials 17% Retail Trade 19% Chemicals and related 38% products 21% Manufactured goods Professional, classified chiefly by material Scientific and Machinery and transport Technical Health Care equipment 5% Public Transport, and Social Administration Postal and assistance Miscellaneous manufactured and Safety Warehousing atricles 4% 5% 6% Source: Eurostat. Page 2 Polish trading partners and exports growth ► Germany is the largest trading partner for Poland, accounting for more than ¼ of Polish exports. Polish exports-to-GDP ratio has doubled since the mid-90s and Polish producers have successfully increased their market share in foreign markets. Exports, trade partners by share, 2012 Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) Germany % of GDP 50 United Kingdom 46.0 45 Czech Republic 39.4 26.5% 40 37.5 29.4% France 35 Russia 30 27.1 23.2 Italy 25 Netherlands 20 7.1% 2.7% Ukraine 15 Australia 2.8% 0.3% Sweden 10 3.0% 6.6% 5 4.7% Slovakia 6.1% 0 5.1% 5.7% Australia Other Source: Eurostat. Page 3 Polish producers benefiting from improved labour cost competitiveness ► Increase in labour productivity significantly exceeded wage growth, translating into improved labour cost competitiveness of producers in Poland. Real unit labour cost Labour cost competitiveness (1999 = 100) (Real effective exchange rate deflated by unit labour costs; 1999 = 100) 115 200 110 180 105 160 100 140 95 120 90 85 100 80 80 Czech Republic Australia Euro area (17 countries) European Union (27 countries) Slovakia Hungary Poland Source: Eurostat, European Commission. Page 4 Polish economy’s outstanding performance during the crisis ► The Polish economy has performed much better than other EU Member States throughout the crisis. Poland is the only EU country that avoided recession in 2009 as well as throughout the entire crisis period. Polish GDP cumulative growth in 2008-2012 amounted to 18.1%, which is by far the best result in the EU-27 and one of the best in the OECD. The cumulative GDP growth in 2008-2012 25% 18.1% 20% 14.0% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -0.8% -10% -15% -20% -25% Source: Eurostat, Australian Bureau of Statistics. Page 5 Polish labour market performance Outstanding economic performance reflected in the Polish labour market development. Despite economic slowdown, over the crisis years employment in Poland has increased by over 0.9 M. Among the EU Member States, only Germany has recorded a higher increase in the number of employees, but its population is twice as large as that in Poland. Over the same period employment in the EU has gone down by nearly 3 million. Thou. Change in the number of employed (2008-2012) 2000 1 768 905 926 1000 0 -1000 -2000 -3000 -2 978 -4000 Source: AMECO. Page 6 “The Green Island” phenomenon – explanation (1/2) 1 Strong private consumption ► Private consumption has proven to be largely crisis resistant. ► A relatively high share of basic goods (with a low income elasticity of demand) in private consumption. ► Consumption largely supported by a favourable labour market performance and a strong fiscal impulse. 2 Floating exchange rate ► Benefiting from a strong depreciation of the Polish złoty exchange rate. ► Weakening of the real effective exchange rate improved the price competitiveness of domestic producers, thus (1) supporting Polish exports and (2) favouring domestic production over imports. 3 Trade structure ► Higher share of consumer goods (more crisis resistant) and lower share of capital goods (less crisis resistant) in exports than in imports. ► As a result, during the economic slowdown net exports contribution to GDP growth tends to be positive. ► Moreover, Polish producers have managed to increase their share in the export markets – partly compensating for the weakness of external demand. Page 7 “The Green Island” phenomenon – explanation (2/2) 4 Sound financial sector ► Not a single financial institution in Poland has been bailed out during the crisis nor required recapitalization with the use of public funds. ► The conservative financial supervision contributed to sound balance sheets, free of toxic assets. ► Polish banks are among the strongest in Central and Eastern Europe, benefiting from strong capital ratios, good asset quality and Poland’s comparatively robust economic performance. ► As a result, share of consumers expressing their increased confidence in the banking industry is way above the EU average. 5 Fiscal impulse and EU funds ► Tax wedge reduction and childcare tax allowances. ► A strong increase in public investment, not least in infrastructure. In 2011 public investment in Poland reached a record high of 5.7% of GDP – the highest level in the EU. ► Public investment largely financed with the EU funds. Poland – the biggest beneficiary of EU funds both in the 2007-2013 and 2014-2020 EU financial perspective. Page 8 % of GDP of % 100 120 140 160 180 Limited increase of public debt 20 40 60 80 0 Page Estonia (“growing out” of debt) and sound financial sector (no bailouts, no recapitalization of banks). of recapitalization no bailouts, sector (no financialsound and debt) of out” (“growing EU the in growthGDP highest the debt: public increasein lowrelatively a explaining Factors liabilities). pension future (financing for areaccounted funds pension open transfers to if even lower,be to out turns debt public Polish the increasein An Member States.other in more moderatethan much was debt public Polish the in increase an EU theaverage, to similarwas Poland in deficitgovernment generalincrease in an Whereas Bulgaria debt in the government General 9 27 Luxembourg Australia* .1 Romania Sweden 38 Poland (without OFE) .3 Lithuania Source: Latvia Czech Republic Denmark Polish Slovakia Finland 55.6 2012 Slovenia Ministry Ministry of Poland Netherlands Malta Austria EU Finance, AMECO, AMECO, Finance, Hungary - Germany 27 85.3 Spain EU-27 Australia, and Cyprus United Kingdom France * Belgium IMF IMF est. Ireland Portugal Italy Greece 115 p 15 35 55 75 95 p. - 5 Sweden 4.7 Bulgaria debtin the of government EU generalChange Poland (without OFE) Estonia Malta 10.6 Poland Hungary Austria Luxembourg Source: Belgium Germany 17.4 Australia* 2008 Polish Finland Czech Republic - 2012 Denmark Ministry Ministry of Slovakia Italy Lithuania Romania Finance, AMECO, AMECO, * Finance, Netherlands France 26.3 EU-27 Cyprus Slovenia - Latvia 27, United Kingdom Spain IMF IMF est. Greece Portugal Ireland Economic outlook Euro area recession economic slowdown has not been avoided in Poland. The trough is expected in 2013Q1/Q2, to be followed by a gradual economic rebound. GDP growth is forecasted to exceed 3% from 2015 onwards. % Real GDP growth rate forecasts 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Historical Data MoF Forecast NBP Projection EC Forecast Global Insight Forecast IMF Projection IMF (FCL) Page 10 Improvements during a downturn Poland is the world’s top improver in the latest World Bank Doing Business 2013 Report. In the ease of doing business Poland ranks 55th, but since the last year it has achieved the highest progress of as many as 19 positions. Index of Economic Freedom scores for the world, EU* Australia and Poland in 2007-2013 85 82.2 82.6 82.6 82.5 83.1 82.6 ► A continuous increase of 81.1 economic freedom in Poland, as 80 measured by the Heritage Foundation Index of Economic 75 Freedom. 69.4 70.0 69.9 69.8 69.8 69.6 69.1 70 ► Since the pre-crisis period the 66.0 64.1 64.2 Polish economic freedom index 65 63.2 overall score has increased the 60.1 60.3 60.3 most among all EU countries. 60 60.2 59.5 59.4 59.7 59.5 59.6 58.1 55 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Poland Australia World EU Source: World Bank, Report Doing Business 2013 – Smarter Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises; The Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom (in partnership with The Wall Street Journal). *Average for EU countries, excluding Poland. Page 11 Improved creditworthiness of Poland (1/2) Outstanding economic performance in terms of GDP growth (“The Green island”). Recession to be avoided once again, contrary to many other EU and OECD member states. Continuous fiscal consolidation since 2011, reflected in the systematic reduction of structural deficit. Medium term objective – general government deficit of 1% of GDP, to be achieved in 2016. Political stability and implemented reforms, such as an increase of retirement age to 67 years.
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