April 4, 2018 Volume 14, Number 14

China fires back again as trade tensions escalate

In the latest salvo of trade actions between the U.S. and Chinese governments, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOC) announced plans today to impose a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of U.S. goods, including soybeans, corn, beef, frozen orange juice and whiskey, according to the Chinese News Agency, Xinhua. The Commerce Ministry said the tariff would be imposed on 106 items of products under 14 categories – but the date of implementation will depend on when the U.S. government imposes tariffs on Chinese products.

The latest announcement from China comes after the Trump administration announced in late March that about $3 billion in steel and aluminum tariffs would be put in place to protect national security. Although several countries would be impacted, the target was clearly China - the largest global producer of steel and aluminum. On Monday, China returned fire by imposing similar measures on $3 billion worth of U.S. pork, fruit, wine, nuts and other items.

Then on Tuesday, the U.S. Trade Representative published a list of 1,300 Chinese exports, worth about $50 billion, that could be hit with a 25 percent tariff to punish the Asian giant for stealing U.S. trade secrets, intellectual property and innovation. Written comments on the proposal are due May 11 and the Section 301 Committee will convene a public hearing on this proposal at the U.S. International Trade Commission on May 15. But the Chinese didn’t waste any time firing back with the same level of tariffs. And this time the Chinese broadened its aim at U.S. agriculture, adding soybeans into the mix.

The Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said in a statement Wednesday that the U.S. move was "an evident violation of relevant rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO)." The U.S. move "severely infringed on the legitimate rights and interests that China enjoys in accordance with the WTO rules, and threatened China's economic interests and security," the MOC said.

Soybean farmers are one of the most vulnerable to Chinese retaliation because they depend on that market to buy about $14 billion worth of the crop every year. Purdue University researchers, at the behest of the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC), took a look at some possible www.Agri-Pulse.com 1 outcomes if China retaliated against new U.S. tariffs by hitting its soybean exports. Under the best-case scenario – a 10 percent tariff – U.S. exports to China would fall by a third, causing overall U.S. soybean production to drop by 8 percent. In the event of a 30 percent tariff, the researchers say U.S. exports to China would fall by 71 percent and total U.S. soybean production would decline by 17 percent.

USSEC said that the industry “regrets that the Chinese government chose to target U.S. soybeans in retaliation for trade sanctions.” The group noted that U.S. soybean farmers communicated their concerns about tariffs to the U.S. Administration and counseled them “to seek other means to remedy the concerns regarding trade.” At the same time, they urged the Chinese government to remove duties imposed on U.S. soybeans and all U.S. products “to demonstrate China’s commitment to reducing the trade imbalance between the U.S. and China and its desire to ‘make the cake of economic cooperation bigger’ as President Xi has suggested.”

Many commodity analysts also hope that cooler heads will prevail and that this global “war of words” will result in more robust trade negotiations and eventually settlements. But for now, the Trump administration is showing no signs of backing down on the potential for tariffs. Indeed, the Trump administration appears to be working on ideas for compensating farmers who may be harmed by China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. commodities, including soybeans, pork, nuts and fruit. Talking to reporters during a tour yesterday in Michigan, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue says the plan will send a signal to China, but he wasn’t ready to offer specifics.

“We’re discussing that right now, but I’m not at liberty to talk about those kinds of things from a mitigation perspective,” Perdue said. “And at the proper time we will let China know they will not be able to affect our agricultural policies and our political decisions over trade by … holding agriculture hostage.”

US-China trade aggression threatens rice deal

U.S. rice farmers and millers are close to overcoming one of the final obstacles blocking access to China’s massive import market, but there isn’t much celebrating going on. That’s because the two countries have come to the brink of an all-out trade war and it's looking like rice trade may become just one more casualty.

“After more than a decade of work to achieve U.S.-grown rice access to the enormous Chinese market, we could finally see the finish line, and now a trade war could set us back years,” Betsy Ward, president and CEO of the USA Rice Federation, told Agri-Pulse. “The flip side is that were China to allow U.S.-grown rice in, it would be a first small step to balancing the trade deficit.”

On Monday, China slapped $3 billion worth of tariffs on a list of 128 U.S. products like pork, oranges, cherries, almonds, plums and ethanol. (For the full list of products and tariffs, read this FAS Gain Report here.) This retaliation came on the heels of new U.S. global tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, a small percentage of which come in from China.

Whether the U.S. and China can prevent further escalation is unclear, but it’s looking like it will get worse before it gets better. That’s because the Trump administration didn’t stop with the steel and aluminum tariffs. On March 22, President Donald Trump signed an order to impose about $50 billion in tariffs solely on Chinese goods in order to punish China for years of

www.Agri-Pulse.com 2 intellectual property theft and forced technical transfers. And then on Wednesday, the Chinese fired back with plans to impose a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of U.S. goods.

None of these tariffs, whether they are meant to deal with China’s over-production of steel or the country’s theft of intellectual property, have anything to do with rice trade, and it’s still possible that the process of gaining access to the Chinese market may move forward.

U.S. rice farmers have been after China to allow in U.S. rice for more than a decade and it seemed that real progress was finally being made last summer. In July, during the first Comprehensive Economic Dialogue between the two countries in Washington, China finally signed off on the sanitary and phytosanitary protocols needed to allow in U.S. rice.

“This is another great day for U.S. agriculture and, in particular, for our rice growers and millers, who can now look forward to gaining access to the Chinese market,” USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue said at the time. “This market represents an exceptional opportunity today, with enormous potential for growth in the future.”

China consumes about 144 million tons of rice every year and is the world’s largest rice- producing and importing country. As part of the deal China struck when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the Asian nation agreed to take in at least 2.7 million tons of U.S. rice each year. Still, there has been no trade because of China’s past refusal to approve the protocols.

China, in what was widely expected to be a part of the final phase in lifting its ban on U.S. rice just a few months ago, sent a 10-page questionnaire to USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), and then the agency passed copies to the U.S. rice mills that export to China. The mills labored to fill out the dense questionnaires that many felt were far too intrusive, according to rice industry sources. Some of the questions dealt with a mill's export history, records of phytosanitary inspections and inspections of raw materials used by a mill.

Despite the reservations of rice producers, the questionnaires have been mostly completed and they are expected to be turned in to USDA's APHIS soon. After that, it will be up to China to decide whether the process moves forward. Under the best possible scenario, China will scrutinize the responses and then choose some or all of the mills to visit in order to verify that they meet the country's sanitary and phytosanitary standards.

Historically, the U.S. and China have been able to quietly continue conducting what are seen as mostly technical-level talks on issues, unaffected by more splashy, high-stakes political battles, but it’s unclear if that will be the case with rice.

“The question is, can our technical experts continue the quiet relationship or does it all get caught up in the politics of this trade fight?” said one trade official who asked not to be named.

Bobby Hanks, chairman of the USA Rice International Trade Policy Committee and CEO of Supreme Rice LLC, is concerned that rice exports could be a casualty of a trade war.

"Our industry is at the end-game of providing detailed information to Chinese authorities about the approximately 30 facilities registering to ship U.S. milled rice to China," said Hanks. "Efforts to get U.S. rice into China are difficult and complicated, and recent events only increase our challenges." www.Agri-Pulse.com 3

Democrats could reshape farm bill if impasse kills 2018 measure

Agriculture Committee, Rep. Jim McGovern, drew cheers at a meeting of anti-hunger activists in February when he called for stopping the farm bill if it’s unfair to nutrition assistance programs.

He reasoned that Democrats have a good chance of taking control of the House in November and reshaping the legislation.

If the Republican-controlled Congress is unable to enact a new farm bill this year, and Democrats win control of at least the House in November, they will have a chance not just to protect nutrition spending but also to shape farm and conservation programs more to the liking of their constituents.

A farm bill written by a Democratic House “would look a lot different and not just on the nutrition title, on a whole bunch of titles,” McGovern said in an interview.

McGovern could be a major player on agriculture policy in a Democratic House. Not only is he currently the top Democrat on House Agriculture’s nutrition subcommittee, he also would likely be in line to chair the House Rules Committee, where he would work with the Democratic leadership to decide what amendments were debated on the floor.

“Quite frankly I think we would write a better and more bipartisan bill,” he said.

Count on there being more support in a Democratic House for capping crop insurance premium subsidies or imposing a means test on the program, say farm bill Rep. Jim McGovern talks with Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue veterans. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program would not only be shielded from cuts, key Democrats will want to increase benefits if they can, based on legislation Democrats have introduced in this Congress.

Environmental groups would play a greater role in shaping conservation programs, including the Environmental Quality Incentives Program, which provides cost-share payments for equipment and farming practices. Initiatives to combat climate change could get more attention.

Other priorities, based on bills that Democrats are sponsoring, will include boosting assistance for organic agriculture and greater support for smaller scale farms.

Many House Democrats are “entirely focused on the non-production side” of agriculture, said former House Agriculture Chairman Frank Lucas, R-Okla.

The committee “is full of great people but it has a much more suburban-urban flavor to it,” he said, referring to the panel’s minority. “We spent a lot more time discussing the unique

www.Agri-Pulse.com 4 nature of organic agriculture and niche crops and community markets, if you remember the debate in the last farm bill, than ever before.”

But passing a farm bill won’t necessarily be any easier for a Democratic House than it is proving to be for Republicans this year.

Lame duck farm bill might appeal to Democrats

Even if Democrats win control of the House in November, they are likely to control the chamber by a handful of votes, setting up a situation where it may be even harder to forge compromises than it is now. It will certainly be more difficult for the likely chairman of the Agriculture Committee, Collin Peterson, D-Minn., to protect crop insurance and commodity programs from reforms sought by both fiscal conservatives and progressives.

In a closely divided Congress, the right-wing House Freedom Caucus, which has roughly three dozen members, many of whom would like to scale back farm programs as well as nutrition assistance, would have more power than it does now by virtue of being a larger percentage of what would be a smaller GOP conference, said Bob Young, the former chief economist of the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Because of the difficulty of passing a farm bill, and because dozens of expiring farm bill programs have no funding beyond 2018, Democrats might decide to allow Congress to pass a new farm bill in the lame duck session at the end of this year even if they win control of one or more chambers, said Ferd Hoefner, senior strategic adviser for the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition.

House Agriculture Chairman Mike Conaway’s draft farm bill, which Democrats say would cut SNAP benefit costs by more than $20 billion, would have no chance of passing in the lame duck. But the bipartisan bill that Senate Agriculture Chairman Pat Roberts, R-Kan., and ranking member Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., are promising to write could have a chance of getting enacted, said Hoefner. Roberts and Stabenow have said it won't have the SNAP cuts that Conaway is proposing.

“If I was making the call I would just say, 'Let’s get it done,'” said Hoefner. “I would say, ‘The farm bill isn’t at the top of the heap on the Democratic agenda, and now that we control the House next year, let’s just get it done and get it off the table, and get on to things that are a bigger deal of the Democratic caucus.' I think it’s a plausible scenario.”

Crop insurance would be in bull's eye

If a new farm bill can’t get out of Congress in the lame duck, and Democrats do win control of the House, or even have a larger minority in the chamber, the crop insurance program would be a major target during floor debate, say farm bill veterans.

In 2013, the Republican House narrowly defeated, 208-217, an amendment sponsored by Rep. Ron Kind, D-Wis., that would have capped premium subsidies at $50,000 per farmer, imposed a means test on policyholders, imposed limits on returns to the crop insurance industry, and provided for public disclosure of benefits that individual farmers receive. Democrats voted more than 2-1 in favor of the amendment. (McGovern was among the supporters). Kind has introduced legislation similar to that amendment, known as the AFFIRM Act, in this Congress. www.Agri-Pulse.com 5

It's important to remember that during the 2013 debate, Kind's amendment was the only one targeting crop insurance that the GOP-controlled Rules Committee allowed to be considered. It was the one that was considered the easiest for the industry to beat since it was so broadly targeted. A narrower amendment was considered more likely to be approved.

Crop insurance is “where the big argument will come from” in a Democratic House, said Young.

Said Hoefner, “If Democrats control the House, Peterson notwithstanding, there’s going to have to be a degree of subsidy reform,” said Hoefner, whose group has long supported a subsidy cap on crop insurance and tighter payment limits for commodity and conservation programs.

Peterson declined to talk about what changes a Democratic House might make. He has been a staunch opponent of attempts by his colleagues to restrict crop insurance benefits or to tighten commodity program payment limits. But those battles would be tougher for him than when he chaired the committee during development of the 2008 farm bill. Peterson struggles to fill Democratic seats on the committee, and many of those who do join the panel don't have agriculture experience. Rep. Collin Peterson, D-Minn., has served two terms as chair of the House Ag Committee Peterson would be a "lonely dude," because if Democrats do win control of the House, it will likely be because of wins in suburban, not rural, districts,” said Bill O'Conner, a former Republican staff director for the committee who now advises agricultural clients for the Watkinson Miller law firm. "The Democrats just don't exist in rural America," he said.

The Blue Dog caucus, a collection of moderate and often rural Democrats, has dropped to 18 in this Congress from more than 50 in 2009.

Here is a look at other Democratic proposals that would likely have more support in a Democratic House. Elements of some could get into the House or Senate farm bills this year:

• Closing the Meal Gap Act. Sponsored by House Agriculture member Alma Adams, D- N.C., the bill would increase SNAP benefits in several ways. The minimum benefit would be increased from $16 to $25 a month, and the bill would make other changes in how rent and medical expenses are used in calculating an individual’s benefits. • The Local Food and Regional Market Supply (FARMS) Act. Sponsored by Rep. Chellie Pingree, D-Maine, the Local FARMS Act would consolidate the Farmers’ Market and Local Food Promotion Program, Value Added Producer grant program, Food LINC - Value Chain Coordinators initiative, and a new Regional Public-Private Partnership into an initiative funded at $80 million a year. • Organic Agriculture Research Act. Also sponsored by Pingree, the bill would increase organic research funding from the current level of $20 million a year to $50 million annually.

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• Food Recovery Act. Another Pingree bill, it would attempt to reduce food waste at the farm, retail and consumer level. Among other things, the bill would require uniform labeling language and authorize a national campaign to raise awareness on the impact of food waste. The bill also would expand tax deductions for farmers, retailers, and restaurants that donate food to non-profits. • American Prairies Conservation Act. The bill would expand the Sodsaver restrictions in crop insurance nationwide. It is now limited to the Prairie Pothole region. The restrictions discourage landowners from breaking native sod. Retiring Rep. Kristi Noem, R-S.D., is the lead sponsor of the bill, but Peterson is among the co-sponsors. • EQIP Act. A House version of this Senate bill, sponsored by Sens. Cory Booker, D-N.J., and Mike Lee, R-Utah, is in the works. The Senate bill would prioritize EQIP cost-share payments for projects such as riparian forest buffers, cover crops, and for planting trees and shrubs. Payments would be reduced from 75 percent to 40 percent for projects considered lower priority, such as roads, fish ponds, stock ponds and dams. EQIP payments would be capped at $150,000, down from the current limit of $450,000.

Ethanol industry OK with RFS talks being kicked back to Congress

If recent reports about the Trump administration possibly sending biofuel program reform efforts back to the legislative branch turn out to be true, don’t expect ethanol supporters to be too disappointed.

In short, asking Congress to take up reform of a politically dicey issue during an election year won’t yield many changes. Perhaps more likely, there won’t be any changes at all, which is just fine with established supporters of the Renewable Fuel Standard.

“Status quo works for us,” Sen. , R-, told reporters in Washington. “Right now, the RFS is working, so I think we’re in good standing. It’s the oil industry, the small refiners that are having the difficulty with it, but it is law.”

Fellow Republican agreed, telling reporters that "if the administration doesn't take any action, it sounds to me like it fits into what I've said about the RFS for a long period time ... if it ain't broke, don't fix it."

Administration officials have hinted at the possibility of leaving the issue of compliance costs to Congress in recent weeks. On March 20, Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue told reporters that he and EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt have “offered some ideas that we think will help the situation, but added “the White House is trying to determine whether they need to make a call on the decision or let Congress go back and fix it.”

Ray Starling, the special assistant to the president for agriculture, trade, and food assistance, told Agri-Pulse that leaving the decision to Congress is “an option, but I also think that given the level of attention the president has given this issue, that it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that he Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue will make a decision based on the information www.Agri-Pulse.com 7 we’re able to present.” Starling suggested another meeting involving Perdue, Pruitt, and “others who weigh in on this topic here at the White House” could happen yet this spring.

Congressional action – or lack thereof – rather than an administrative decision would also sit well with certain corners of the biofuel industry growing frustrated with the downward spiral the debate has inflicted on the price of Renewable Identification Numbers.

“If for whatever reason, the government believes additional actions need to be taken to further reduce RIN prices, we support any measure that would expand – rather than destruct – RFS demand,” said Bob Dinneen, president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association.

The most recent wave of RFS reform talks started last fall, when Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, placed a hold on ’s nomination to be a USDA undersecretary. Cruz said he wanted to speak with President Trump about the RFS, and the conversation has shifted to the cost of RINs. Those are the credits used to measure compliance with the RFS, and some independent refiners complained that RIN prices were endangering their businesses.

Biofuel groups and companies disagreed, saying that refinery business practices were to blame for financial issues – including the bankruptcy filing of Philadelphia Energy Solutions – rather than any issues associated with the RFS and RIN costs. Nevertheless, meetings were convened, and solutions were sought, but the elusive “win-win” desired by the administration remains just that: elusive.

A cap on the price of RINs has been suggested, as has Reid Vapor Pressure relief, a long sought after administrative fix that would allow for E15 to be sold during the summer months. In search of a “win-win,” a proposal from the biofuels space has also surfaced to put a two-year multiplier on RINs used for blends higher than 10 percent in exchange for RVP relief. But that idea has struggled to gain widespread acceptance in the industry and could be a nightmare to implement, industry stakeholders tell Agri-Pulse.

This concept "is someone wanting to get more credit for buying the same gallon of ethanol,” Ron Lamberty, senior vice president of the American Coalition for Ethanol, said in an interview with Agri-Pulse. “I think it’s unlikely to increase ethanol sales; I think there’s too many ways something like that can be manipulated in the system.”

“A multiplier isn’t a multiplier, it’s a divider; It brings the amount of ethanol sold down because it counts as more,” he added. “I don’t think it helps us as an industry, and I think it may not take all the teeth out, but I think it takes out maybe one of the incisors.”

Many in the biofuels space also wonder why a counteroffer like the RIN multiplier is even necessary. The renewable fuel side of the argument contends that RVP relief would do enough to calm concerns about RIN prices, so the multiplier isn't needed. However, the deal-making concept of "I get this, you get that” could loom large and require the biofuel industry to put some kind of concession on the table.

While a RIN multiplier would be favorable to a RIN cap, Brooke Coleman, executive director of the Advanced Biofuels Business Council, says that RVP relief is already sufficient.

"This administration should just address RVP. Period. The end," Coleman told Agri-Pulse.

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The concern over the RIN multiplier proposal is coupled with the fact that it’s assumed RVP relief would lead to more E15 sales, but that’s hardly a guarantee. Having the fuel available 12 months a year would give a chance for station sales and consumer acceptance of the higher blend to grow, but many stations won’t be able to sell the fuel because of established contracts with fuel providers.

“I think sometimes in our industry, because we want RVP relief so damn bad, we maybe overstate the importance of it, to be brutally honest,” ACE CEO Brian Jennings said. “Not every retailer is Brian Jennings, ACE going to sell E15 just because RVP relief is extended for various reasons, especially the branded stations that have those contract restrictions.”

Pruitt has said he would be willing to sign an RVP waiver, but he wants to be sure it is a legally defensible decision. Such a move will almost certainly be challenged in the courts, and legislation to make the change on Capitol Hill has stalled. Jennings said he was “encouraged” by what he heard from Bill Wehrum, EPA’s assistant administrator of the office of air and radiation, on the subject, but EPA’s lengthy review of the subject continues.

“Every move is going to be challenged by the oil industry here, whether it’s super important or just marginal gallons,” Jennings said. “But (RVP relief) needs to get done, it needs to be legally defensible, and we’ll be standing right beside EPA and defending them when they come out and do this.”

Could India be the Trump administration’s first FTA?

The question of which country will be the first to sit down for serious negotiations on a bilateral free trade agreement with the U.S. under the Trump administration is still wide open, but India is likely a top candidate.

USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Ted McKinney has been on the job for about six months and he’s already been to India twice, each time highlighting the opportunities to improve the trading relationship between the U.S. and the world’s second most heavily populated nation behind China.

Of course, there are many candidates for a new FTA. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer mentioned Vietnam and the Philippines in a recent House Ways and Means Committee hearing. U.S. negotiators are already talking to their counterparts in the U.K., but those talks aren’t expected to formally take into consideration a full FTA until after Britain leaves the European Union a year from now. And here's a wild card: Trump is meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at Mar-a-Lago on April 17th - just ahead of a planned summit between the president and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un.

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On the top of most farm group’s wish list for free trade agreements is Japan. The country was set to lower tariffs on U.S. beef, pork, wheat and other commodities under the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but that ended after the U.S. pulled out.

The U.S. told Japan it would like a bilateral FTA, but so far Japanese officials have rebuffed requests while at the same time inviting the U.S. to rejoin the new version of the TPP that launched recently without the U.S. Still, a trade deal could come up when Abe is scheduled to meet with Trump in about two weeks.

Japan is a long-sought after target, but what makes India more attractive is its potential. The country of 1.3 billion people is home to growing demand for poultry, dairy, fruits and vegetables, ethanol and distiller’s dried grains (DDGs), and right now the U.S. has a large trade deficit with India. The U.S. last year imported $48.6 billion worth of goods from India, but only shipped $25.7 billion worth of exports, according to U.S. Commerce Department data.

That deficit is something Lighthizer said he wants to reduce. Speaking last October after a meeting with Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Suresh Prabhu, Lighthizer said “U.S.- India trade has grown significantly in the last few years and has the potential to span every sector of the economy.

“To increase reciprocal trade, we will continue to seek to identify and address trade barriers related to goods, including manufactured and agriculture, services and intellectual property rights.”

With only a few changes to Indian trade policy, the U.S. could easily begin selling 700,000 tons of DDGs per year to India, says U.S. Grains Council Director of Global Strategy Kurt Shultz. DDGs are essentially a bi-product of corn-based ethanol and that’s another product that the U.S. could sell a lot more of to India with a few changes to the country’s policies.

The U.S. sold about 135 million gallons of ethanol to India in 2017, but producers here could be shipping a lot more. India only allows ethanol imports for industrial purposes – not as USTR Robert Lighthizer an automobile fuel.

Gregg Doud, the U.S. Trade Representative’s newly installed chief agricultural trade negotiator, highlighted the potential of an FTA with India during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Finance Committee.

“Keeping in mind that the evolution of more liberalized trade in agricultural products takes a great deal of patience, we must also get started today in planting new trees of market access even though it may take time before we’re able to enjoy some shade from such efforts,” Doud told the senators. “In this category, India certainly comes to mind as a place, which, before long, could grow to be the most heavily populated nation on the planet.”

Doud was clear, though, that achieving an FTA with India would not be easy. While the potential to export billions more in ag commodities exists, India is a very protectionist nation, tied up in www.Agri-Pulse.com 10 layers and layers of bureaucracy, American Farm Bureau Federation Senior Director David Salmonsen tells Agri-Pulse.

Darci Vetter, diplomat in residence at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and former USTR chief agriculture negotiator, stressed that the negatives for India may outweigh the potential for positives.

“Given India’s significant restrictions on market access and their lack of willingness to open their markets, I don’t know if they’re really ready to be a high-standard FTA partner, but the size of their market and their demand for agricultural goods certainly indicates there should be more opportunity there,” Vetter told Agri-Pulse.

Whether it’s India or another country, U.S. ag groups and farm state lawmakers are hankering for the U.S. to begin serious work on new free trade agreements. It’s been more than a year since President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership – which could have spurred billions of dollars in increased exports to countries like Japan and Vietnam - and promised that it would be replaced with one-on-one Darci Vetter, University of Nebraska-Lincoln bilateral trade deals.

Lighthizer now has a full roster of deputies and he’s promised lawmakers that he’s told them to find countries for the U.S. to do bilateral trade deals with. While it may be way too early to expect results, U.S. farm groups and farm state lawmakers are increasingly anxious to see new trade.

Why NASS is down for the (census) count

With participation lagging, the National Agricultural Statistics Service is redoubling its efforts to encourage farmers and ranchers to answer questions for the 2017 Agricultural Census.

NASS has extended the deadline to respond into the spring in order to give farmers and ranchers more time to send their forms in or fill them out online. NASS also has used web-based advertising for the first time to boost participation.

NASS Public Affairs Director Sue King said April 3 that the return rate – the percentage of forms filled out online or mailed back to NASS – stands at 53.7 percent, behind the 66.6 percent rate of five years ago. The final return rate for the 2012 census was “a smidge over 80 percent,” said King, who added that NASS's goal is 100 percent.

“I will tell you – we’re not where we want to be,” King said, but added NASS is pushing hard to keep the census on farmers’ minds, using partners such as commodity groups and the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture.

“We’ve asked them to help more than we have in the past,” King says.

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Participation rates are generally higher in the Midwest and lower in the Southeast and Southwest, according to an updated electronic map at NASS offices in Washington, D.C. Louisiana, for example, sits at about 37 percent, and Arizona is at 36.4 percent. Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue’s home state of Georgia is at 44.7 percent. Illinois, at 63.3 percent, and Iowa, at 62.4 percent, are considerably higher.

Charlie Ingram, the NASS program director at NASDA, says he’s excited about the latest census, especially new questions about military veteran status, food marketing practices, and on- farm decision-making.

“I think you always learn something new about the makeup, health and status of the farm economy and the farm trends,” Ingram said.

NASS hasn’t set a firm deadline for producers to complete the survey, which is undertaken every five years. “Eventually we’ve got to cut it off,” King says. “We’re trying to give everyone a chance to respond.” The sooner NASS gets responses, the less follow-up, including telephone calls and home visits, will be necessary, she said.

The service has done some web-based advertising with digital and audio public service announcements in Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. State departments of agriculture also are doing their own web ads.

“We did expect to have a bit of a tougher time and that’s holding true,” she said of the census effort, which kicked off in late November with an original deadline of Feb. 5.

"Collected in service to American agriculture since 1840, the census gives every producer the opportunity to be represented so that informed decisions can support their efforts to provide the world with food, fuel, feed, and fiber,” Perdue said at the time. “Every response matters."

In formally extending the deadline in February, Hubert Hamer, NASS NASS stressed the importance of the data to vital programs. Census data “will affect every operation and every farming community at some point, whether it be through farm policy, disaster relief, insurance or loan programs, infrastructure improvements, or agribusiness setup,” NASS Administrator Hubert Hamer said.

Despite the depressed response rates, NASS can at least boast better acceptance of its internet interface. “Last time we had people who wanted to respond online,” King says. The problem was, “Our online form was terrible.” King didn't have web-based return rate numbers handy from five years ago, but it's definitely an increase, as 388,000 people have used the web to fill out their forms – about a quarter of the 1.5 million total responses.

Falling response rates have been a concern at USDA for a while. In a paper published about a year ago, USDA Chief Economist Rob Johannson, USDA social science analyst Anne Effland, and State agricultural economist Keith Coble noted that “response rates on NASS www.Agri-Pulse.com 12 crop acreage and production surveys have been falling in recent decades,” from 80-85 percent in the early 1990s to below 60 percent in some cases.

“Of even greater concern, there appears to an acceleration in the decline in the last five years or so, suggesting the possibility that this decline reflects a long-term permanent change,” they said.

As response rates decline, “the statistical reliability of estimates and forecasts decline and the value of NASS estimates for a host of other purposes declines as well,” they said.

They looked specifically at the ARC-CO program, for which NASS must meet minimum response rates in order for NASS to publish a yield estimate for a specific crop in a specific county. If NASS doesn’t get enough responses to publish an estimate, the Farm Service Agency has to use Risk Management Agency yields when available, “but these may differ from the data a NASS estimate would provide. For example, RMA data may not be as representative of the county yield as a NASS statistical sample, since not all farms participate in the crop insurance program.”

“The yield estimates used to calculate ARC-CO payment rates determine the level of payments producers with base acres will receive for that year,” the authors note. “A relatively small change in the yield estimate for a county can have a substantial effect on the payment rate.”

King said NASS is looking at the reasons behind lower response rates. “We’re doing a lot of research to find out what the impediments are, what people are thinking,” she said.

NASS is not alone in experiencing depressed participation. A 2013 National Academy of Sciences report said that for many household surveys in the U.S., “response rates have been steadily declining for at least the past two decades,” citing “a growing societal concern over intrusions on people’s time and privacy.”

Don Villwock, a farmer in Indiana and former president of the state Farm Bureau, said growers are worried about the security of their information. “I think people in general, not just farmers, are concerned about their data,” he said.

But Villwock also said that producers may simply be preoccupied or pessimistic about the farm economy, buffeted by continuing low commodity prices and talk of a trade war with China.

Villwock also offered an observation that might help NASS save some money on postage costs. He said he filled in his form within a couple of weeks of receiving it, but has since received three forms in the mail.

“Maybe it didn’t get in the system,” he said.

California fights costly battle against invasive species

Every year, California acquires on average nine new invasive species, including exotic insects, spiders, mollusks and even South American mammals. Three of those invaders usually try and settle down, start a large family and stake a claim on some of the Golden State’s endless buffet of agricultural crops, becoming the bane of farmers and researchers.

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“There are lots of species that get here and don’t become established, it’s just a few that do,” said Jim Farrar, director of the Statewide Integrated Pest Management Program of the University of California Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources.

According to the UC-Riverside’s Center for Invasive Species Research, invasive pests cost the state an estimated $3 billion a year. Intrusive plants alone cost California at least $82 million annually for control, monitoring and outreach, not including crop loss, as More focus on Invasive species in the next farm bill? reported by the California Invasive Plant Council. Invasive species threaten agriculture, forests and all types of land across the U.S., causing more than $125 billion in damages, according to the Reduce Risks from For a new species to become invasive, Invasive Species Coalition. The group estimates that it needs an appropriate environment, about half of this damage impacts agriculture, yet the temperature, access to water, a host or 2014 farm bill mentions invasive species in only one part a place to become established, like a of the bill. The coalition would like to enhance that funding and solutions to the problems. particular type of soil in the example of a new weed. For example, the coalition supports HR. 5411 – bipartisan legislation introduced by Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, A key tool in battling the problem is D-Hawaii and referred to the House Agriculture integrated pest management (IPM), a Committee last week. The Areawide Integrated Pest Management (AIPM) Act of 2018 will create a framework process that prioritizes minimal risks to support farmers, ranchers, and land managers by to people and the environment. It can reducing the impact of harmful invasive species, be used to manage different pests in Gabbard noted in a release. urban, agricultural and natural areas. “AIPM programs seek to engage land and water managers across all jurisdictional boundaries, integrate UC IPM gets involved after an research and outreach, and address both human and invasive species becomes established technological dimensions of invasive weed problems” in California and starts causing said Lee Van Wychen, Director of Science Policy for the damage to the point where regulators Weed Science Society of America. “AIPM programs can’t prevent it from spreading farther have a proven track record and have successfully thwarted invasions of leafy spurge in the Northern Great or can’t eradicate it completely. Plains, melaleuca in the Florida Everglades and water hyacinth in the California Delta.” “We’re not on the front end, but boy, if they get established, we have to deal with it,” Farrar said.

He stated that finding a working, legal pesticide with some research backing it is usually the first response when California gets a new pest. However, this can affect IPM regimens already in place.

“We’ve seen this with spotted wing drosophila and bagrada bug and a lot of others,” he said. “But if you start spraying more for that particular insect, that might damage the biologicals that are controlling other sub-pests for pathogens. So, it causes this sort of snowballing effect.”

It can take years of research to design an ideal program for a new pest. Researchers look at factors like new biological controls, weak spots in the pest’s life cycle, or try to find crops that are resistant.

Farrar noted that even international trade can be affected by invasive species, spotted wing drosophila being a prime example. When it showed up in California, no one really knew how to www.Agri-Pulse.com 14 manage it, which led to trading partners finding maggots in fruit and rejecting whole loads of imports.

“If it’s some perishable commodity sent to Japan, they’re not going to send it back, it’s going to rot before that, so typically it just gets dumped,” he said. “So, it has these implications on trade, and whether or not growers get paid for the fruit that gets packed and shipped to the final destination.”

Invasive species typically piggyback into the state from people, usually by accident. Many come over in shipping containers, but some migrate with vacationers returning home with fruit or interesting plants to grow at their homes, unaware that they transported a hitchhiking pest and released it into California’s various microclimates.

Sometimes they are brought in intentionally. Japanese dodder, for instance, was an invasive plant brought to the U.S. for traditional medicinal Spotted wing drosophila purposes and has since become a parasite to native plants. The yellowish or orange vine doesn’t photosynthesize for itself and has feeding organs that penetrate the stems of other plants to suck out their nutrients.

Uninvited organisms can be eradicated, however. The European grapevine moth is one example.

EGVM is one of the most damaging insect pests to grapes in Europe and the Middle East because they lay eggs on the berry clusters. The larvae then harm the berries, letting in fungi and bacteria, making the fruit inedible.

When they were detected in California’s Napa Valley in 2009, most likely transported to the U.S. on equipment or vineyard materials, a coordinated effort involving government agencies, grape growers, local officials and University of California scientists and advisers was established to get rid of the pest.

An IPM program was developed that relied on setting up trapping grids of female moth sex pheromone dispensers to disrupt mating, along with carefully timed applications of insecticides.

According to the UC IPM Exotic and Invasive Pests webpage, the dual pest management approach was conducted for seven years and EGVM detections were reduced from 100,000 moths in 2010 to one moth in 2014 and none in 2015 or 2016. This led the 10 California counties that had been infested to become deregulated, quarantines were lifted and economic well-being returned to the table grape industry.

A similar program is currently being implemented in the California citrus industry due to the invasive Asian citrus psyllid (ACP), which is a vector for citrus greening disease, or huanglongbing. ACP has already decimated the Florida citrus industry because greening is lethal to citrus trees and there is currently no cure for it.

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“In California, if the disease got out of the Los Angeles basin and into the main citrus production areas it would be terrible because our production is based on fresh fruit primarily,” Farrar said. In Florida, the crop is used mostly for juice, and discolored or strangely shaped fruit can sometimes be salvaged. “But for fresh fruit, you can’t do that,” he said. “It’s just a loss.”

To see an interactive California map of ACP quarantines and management strategies for commercial and residential citrus, click here.

California’s seasonal wildfires have been increasingly worse due to invasive species and diseases as well. Beetles like the gold spotted oak borer, along with tree diseases like sudden oak death and fusarium dieback, have caused tremendous damage to California forests and certain agricultural orchards, essentially rendering them as firewood waiting for a spark.

Even invasive mammals like wild boars and most recently the South American nutria are threatening California agriculture.

Foraging feral hogs are eroding and uprooting natural and agricultural areas across the country, causing an estimated $1.5 billion in damages annually. Farmers of leafy green crops like spinach are particularly concerned with keeping hogs out of their fields to reduce risks of E. coli from their feces.

Nutria, a semi-aquatic rodent that eats up to 25 percent of their body weight in wetland vegetation every day, made their reappearance in California last year. It was originally introduced for fur farming more than 100 years ago, but the animal’s fur never really caught on.

“It’s rodent fur, it’s not like mink or anything,” said Peter Tira of the California Department of Fish and Wildlife. “The only people who really made money on nutria were the people selling nutria Nutria spotted in California farms.”

Still, the animal had found a new home. Periodically, nutria would escape the farms and feral populations would get established, but they were eventually exterminated by state wildlife workers. Or so they thought – until last March, when a pregnant, healthy female carrying seven fetuses was trapped. Since then, dozens of the animals have been confirmed in Stanislaus, Fresno, Merced and Tuolumne counties.

“Nutria are especially worrisome because they are the trifecta in the sense that they pose a major environmental threat to our wetlands and environment, they are an A-rated agricultural pest that’s a threat to our multibillion-dollar agricultural industry, and thirdly, they burrow into levees, dikes and roadbeds,” Tira said.

And while their numbers may be small now, nutria are prodigious breeders. They can start breeding as young as four months and produce theirs first litters four months later. They can

www.Agri-Pulse.com 16 have up to three litters every 13 months, with 2-13 young per litter; Within 24-48 hours, they’re ready to breed again.

“They live in social groups, but the young males are driven out by the dominant male, so they can spread up to 50 miles,” Tira said. “We’re moving quickly to hopefully eradicate them and remove them from the landscape.”

News Briefs

No Taste for Waste campaign launched. The American Farm Bureau Federation, Land O’Lakes SUSTAIN, Valent BioSciences Corporation and FLM Harvest, collaborated with the CropLife Foundation and Meredith Agrimedia to launch the “No Taste for Waste” campaign. The campaign connects consumers to real farmers, like Washington state apple growers Mike and April Clayton, who use sustainable practices and act as good stewards of the land, while reducing food waste. There’s also an interactive website, NoTasteForWaste.org, special edition “bookazine” titled “Waste Less, Save Money!,” and social media resources for consumers interested in reducing household food waste, and for farmers and ranchers who are taking steps to fight food loss in their fields. Consumers will have access to a weekly meal planner, online tools to help reduce waste at home and more stories from farmers who are combating food waste and loss. A growing collection of recipes from farmers, bloggers and the Meredith Agrimedia test kitchens will also be highlighted on the site. In addition, consumers and farmers can share their stories and food preservation tips using #NoTasteForWaste on Facebook (@NoTasteForWaste) and Instagram (@NoTaste4Waste). “Farmers and ranchers are leading the charge toward greater efficiency and less waste in our food system, from field to fork,” said AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “By adopting technology in our fields and new farming practices, we are reducing waste while producing high-quality, healthy food.”

Six Arkansas farmers win approval to use dicamba. In a new twist in the state’s ongoing dicamba saga, Arkansas judge Tim Fox ruled Friday that six Arkansas farmers will be allowed to spray dicamba-based herbicides on their crops this summer, even though a statewide ban on the use of the product during the growing season will continue for all other farmers in the state – at least for now. The six farmers sued the Arkansas Plant Board in November for its decision to ban dicamba use from April 16 through Oct. 31. Fox dismissed the lawsuit itself, but said the ruling also effectively curtailed the farmers' rights to due process and their right to appeal the Plant Board's ban. The decision comes after Monsanto filed suit against the Arkansas State Plant Board, challenging the state’s ban on dicamba for several months in 2018. However, as Agri- Pulse reported in mid-February, an Arkansas state court judge threw out that lawsuit.

Farm banks increased ag lending in 2017. U.S. farm banks increased agricultural lending by nearly 6 percent, or $5.9 billion, to $106 billion in 2017, according to the American Bankers Association’s annual Farm Bank Performance Report. At the same time, asset quality remained healthy at the nation’s 1,847 farm banks as non-performing loans fell to a pre-recession level of 0.52 percent of total loans. ABA defines farm banks as banks whose ratio of domestic farm loans to total domestic loans is greater than or equal to the industry average. Brittany Kleinpaste, ABA’s vice president for economic policy and research, said the increase in lending was an indication of the weaker ag sector, but she said farm banks are still strong and ready to assist their farm and ranch customers. “Banks continue to meet the credit needs of both large and small farms, and remain the largest supplier of agricultural credit in the U.S.,” she said. More than 96 percent of farm banks were profitable in 2017, with more than 55 percent reporting an increase in earnings, the report found. www.Agri-Pulse.com 17

A cup of joe causes cancer? Say it ain't so. Coffee companies may have to post warning labels on their product if a California judge’s proposed order becomes final. Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge Elihu Berle issued a proposed decision March 28 that found Starbucks and dozens of other companies had not been able to prove any health benefits from coffee and also had “failed to satisfy their burden of proving that sound considerations of public health support an alternate risk level for acrylamide in coffee.” The issue is the presence in coffee of acrylamide, which has been on California’s Proposition 65 list as a cancer-causing substance since 1990. The National Coffee Association says the government’s Dietary Guidelines state that coffee can be part of a healthy lifestyle, and that “although acrylamide manufactured in synthetic form has been associated with cancers in rodents fed massive doses, natural dietary acrylamide in minute amounts in foods like coffee does not have an effect on human beings.” The National Cancer Institute says that while rodent studies "have found that acrylamide exposure increases the risk for several types of cancer," a large number of epidemiologic studies in humans "have found no consistent evidence that dietary acrylamide exposure is associated with the risk of any type of cancer." The coffee association says it is considering all its options, “including potential appeals and further legal actions.” Berle will issue a final decision after receiving comments on his proposed decision. The plaintiff in the case is the Council for Education and Research on Toxics.

ITC backs NBB position of harm in antidumping case. The International Trade Commission voted 4-0 on Tuesday to affirm the belief that the biodiesel industry has suffered economic harm as a result of dumping of product from Argentina and Indonesia. The move is the last remaining step before antidumping duties can be put in place. Donnell Rehagen, CEO of the National Biodiesel Board, said the dumping “has undermined the jobs and environmental benefits that U.S. biodiesel brings to the table.” In February, the Department of Commerce set final duty rates in the case: 60.44 percent to 86.41 percent for Argentine producers, 92.52 percent to 276.65 percent for producers from Indonesia. According to NBB, final orders putting antidumping duties in place are expected later this month.

Eggs lead jump in AFBF’s picnic basket price survey. Those eggs you bought for Easter are being blamed for most of the increase in the American Farm Bureau Federation’s Spring Picnic Marketbasket Survey. The informal survey showed the total cost of 16 food items that can be used to prepare one or more meals was $51.05, up $1.02, or 2 percent compared to a year ago. Of the items surveyed, nine increased and seven decreased in average price. By far, the biggest increase was in the cost of eggs. According to the survey, average egg prices were 37 percent higher than this time last year, at $1.80 per dozen. Blame the increase on increased domestic and foreign demand while U.S. production stayed level. Exports to South Korea, for example, jumped a whopping 663 percent from 2016 to 2017 following a bird flu outbreak in the country. Egg prices in the U.S. have been on a roller-coaster ride the past several years. In 2017, AFBF’s survey found that egg prices had fallen 41 percent from a year earlier, to $1.32 a dozen. John Newton, AFBF’s director of market intelligence, said orange juice was another “significant driver” for the overall increase in the basket, up 24 cents, or 7.5 percent, following a devastating hurricane that cut production from Florida groves. The biggest decrease came in milk, which fell by 6 percent (20 cents per gallon) due partly to continued record production volumes in the U.S.

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Farm Hands on the Potomac…

Cassie Bladow is returning to the office of Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., this time as chief of staff. The North Dakota State alum has been serving as vice president at the U.S. Beet Sugar Association. Before that, Bladow handled agriculture, transportation and public land policy for Hoeven for nearly five years, helping to pass the 2014 farm bill. Bladow starts the new job April 9. She’s replacing Ryan Bernstein, who started working for Hoeven in 2000. According to Hoeven’s office, Bernstein is leaving to join McGuireWoods Consulting as a senior vice president, lobbying on energy and agriculture issues.

The Northwest Commission on Colleges and Universities (NWCCU) says Sonny Ramaswamy, currently the director of the National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA), will assume the role of president and CEO of NWCCU in July. Ramaswamy was appointed to the top post at NIFA by President Obama in 2012. Before that, he served as dean of Oregon State University’s College of Agricultural Sciences; director of Purdue University’s Agricultural Research Programs; professor and head of Kansas State University’s Entomology Department; and professor of entomology at Mississippi State University.

Mississippi Gov. appointed state Rep. as his new . Gipson is an attorney and Baptist pastor and has been in the state House since 2008. He lives on a farm in Braxton. Gipson succeeds Cindy Hyde-Smith whom Bryant named to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by until a special election can be held in November. The winner will then serve the rest of Cochran’s term, which ends in January 2021.

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture hired Julie Kenney as the new deputy secretary for the state Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship. Before joining the department, Kenney had been active in the agribusiness industry for nearly 15 years. Kenney and her family also own and operate a corn and soybean farm in Story County.

James E. Kearns was sworn in this week as a member of the International Trade Commission. A Democrat from Colorado, Kearns was nominated by President Obama in January 2017, then nominated by President Trump the following June. Kearns served as a trade adviser for 11 years on the Democratic staff of the House Ways and Means Committee, including for the last five years as international trade counsel.

Emily Dean is retiring as chief financial officer with the Farm Credit System Insurance Corp. at the end of the month. She’s been serving as CFO since 2013. Andrew Grimaldi, a former branch chief at the Securities and Exchange Commission, was named to succeed Dean.

Anne Marie White was sworn in last week as the Energy Department’s new assistant secretary for Environmental Management. The Michigan native founded Bastet Technical Services LLC, a consulting firm that provided solutions to environmental challenges across DOE.

Purity Dairies President Mark Ezell has retired from the company, which was acquired by Dean Foods in 1998. Ezell, who at age 15 began as a part-time employee, is the last member of his family to have worked for Purity Dairies, formerly known as Ezell’s Dairies, which was founded in the mid-1920s. The Nashville-based business provides products throughout Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky and is said to be one of the last distributors of the Nutty Buddy ice cream cone.

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Leon Marchal was hired by Netherlands-based DuPont Industrial Biosciences as its innovation director. He previously held a similar post at For Farmers, a Dutch feed manufacturer. DuPont Industrial Biosciences is a business unit of DowDuPont specialty products that targets animal nutrition, among other markers.

The Russell Group promoted Savannah Block to the position of senior legislative assistant. The Virginia Tech alum and daughter of former USDA Secretary John Block, has been with the firm for nearly two years, beginning as an intern and serving as a legislative and regulatory analyst.

Equitable Food Initiative is welcoming four new members to its board of directors. Victor Smith and Kathryn Ault join as grower representatives, Martin Guerena as a pest management expert, and Laura MacCleery as a representative of consumer interest. Smith is CEO of JV Smith Companies, with farming, cooling and distributing facilities in Arizona, Colorado and Mexico. Ault is vice president of sales for Nature Sweet Tomatoes, Guerena is a sustainable agriculture specialist with the National Center for Appropriate Technology, and MacCleery is director of policy and regulatory affairs for the Center for Science in the Public Interest. Click here to see a list of the members of EFI Executive Board.

Arkansas FFA member Noah Davis’s run on ABC’s American Idol came to an end Monday night. Davis, a student at Arkansas Tech University, didn’t make the cut from 50 to 24 contestants, coming up short with his rendition of Lady Gaga’s “You & I.” Davis, who won FFA’s 2017 National Talent Competition, had hoped to use winnings from the show to start an alpaca farm.

Earl Wayne Sears, who served as the National Cotton Council of America’s executive vice president from 1978 to 1989, died yesterday in Memphis, Tenn., where he’d lived for the past 47 years. He was 90. Born on a farm in Texas, Sears graduated from Texas Tech University in 1948 and began teaching at Lamesa (Texas) High School where he founded the school’s vocational agriculture program with the FFA, a program that continues to this day. He joined the NCC’s field service in 1952 and went on to work in the organization for more than 30 years. After retiring in 1989, he remained a consultant, coordinating the fund-raising effort for the Cotton Foundation. He also served on the board of directors of Habit for Humanity, chaired the board of Agricenter International and was an inductee into the Cotton Industry Hall of Fame.

Best Regards,

Sara Wyant

Editor

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