De address Pernambuco,CentroFilosofiade Ciências eHumanas, Mailing University Federal of Pernambuco. Science, Political of Department Professor, (UFPE) Science Political in PhD Adriano Oliveira ¿CÓMO SERÁN LAS ELECCIONES MUNICIPALES? MUNICIPAL? ELEIÇÃO SERÁ COMO A the voter WHATWILL THEMUNICIPAL ELECTION LIKE?BE overloading the healthsystem. New and recession economic the isolation, social causing 2020, hit March has outbreakCoronavirus Since present. be will crisis health the election, coming the ac not is Wash Car Operation remain. crises economic and changein theno voter'sbehavior. voter's the in space lose would Olive choice. parties traditional and politics in disappointment would changes that expectation inbehavior. voteroccur loc last the Before 2019). (OLIVEIRA, crisis political such variablescausedthethat of Portuguese) (“OperaçãooneWash”in Jato” wasCarLava “Operation demonstrations. 2013 ofJune the of as well as crisis, politicaland economic I Publ Accepted Received PE Universitária ntroduction partamento de Ciências Sociais. Sociais. Ciências de partamento –

ished Braz 0000 This year, local elections will take place again. As in the last dispute, the political political the dispute, last the in As again. place take will elections local year, This voters' to due increase would abstention Electoral emerge. would voter new A place took office mayor the for dispute the 2016, In : il :

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Covid behavior; KEYWORDS explainthe voter's behavior. the to analysis prospective the using and c scenarios the of analysis, importanceconjuncture the reveals article This presented. are variables causal three these of voter the on effects crisis; possible economic and Nationalization; / and Polarization constructi for considered mechanisms are variables Three dispute. the coming the to Using by clarity provide we scenarios, of construction article. the this explanation be of in will presented election characteristics municipal forthcoming possible The ABSTRACT - 19 y el votante el y 19

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result, he is now under investigation by the Federal Supreme Federal the byinvestigation under now is he result, crisis. health the of course the in dismissed were Health of Ministers Two Executive. Federal the of a governorsbetweenconflict a is therepositions,different the to Due 19. Covid face to isolation social of policy the for opted governors the of Most economy. investment consequently, and revenues, lose will andmedium Small capacity. Government, Federal help the the despite from municipalities, and States 20%. reach can rate unemployment The PROS e Avante. 1 causes.Then, orreasons andtheir forthcoming electionmunicipalthe in behavior voter conjunctures probable effects ofMARQUES; (OLIVEIRA; TALEB, 2014.). 2014; representatiare thescenarios Therefore, variables. observable byproduced effects the considering constructed are They hypotheses. possibilities, are Scenarios variables. n can they variable), observedthat is, variousbe in corners Brazil. of (dependentconjunctures electoral major and similar build will variables) (independent non versus bolsonarism of (adepts polarization that hypothesis the present I exist. they why reasons the and election, the of characteristics possible the show will I raised. question scenarios of construction the and mechanisms by analysis the using may be enacted. Covid people, immunize to vaccine a newbeforecoronavirus.projectionthenormalitysanitaryth asThe seen of is measures. isolation social reinforced have Amazonas and Janeiro Covid by deceased offeredpositions partiesto the Republic are that ofpart theso the of President the Although troubled. remains relationship Legislative and

ot (PEARL; MACKENZIE; 2018). At the juncture, there are the effects produced by the the by produced effects the are there juncture, the At 2018). MACKENZIE; (PEARL; ot The parties that form the Centrão are: PTB, PP, , PSB, PSD e MDB, PR, , PR, MDB, e PSD PSB, Solidariedade,PP, PTB, are: Centrãothe form that parties The - olwr o bloaim, Covid bolsonarism), of followers In April 2020, President Bolsonaro dismissed Minister of Justice Sérgio Moro. As As Moro. Sérgio Justice of Minister dismissed Bolsonaro President 2020, April In the all, of first defend, to chose Bolsonaro, Jair Republic, the of President The point Brazil for scenarios The This article will have two sections. At first, I present several hypotheses regarding hypotheses several present I first, At sections. two have will article This or effects successive produce variables that means mechanisms by Explanation article, This elections? municipal 2020 the of characteristics the be will What infe of number considerable a have may Brazil that shows Predictions

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and to conduct it. conduct to and agenda government's Bolsonaro the define to began and prominence gained Deputies, parliamentariz president, of choice the to Due associations. party various the to positions distribute Crises scenarios. of construction the and situation the of analysis the incorporate and prospective predictive, be behavior voter on studies that necessary is it that regards I osnr gvrmn ws prvd y 2 (ra/od o elect of (Great/Good) 32% by approved was government the office, in Bolsonaro months 3 After government. excellent/good an make would Bolsonaro Covid popularitycheckthePresidentimportantofBolsonto to make room for Centrão and build a party coalition in March 2020. Minister former by denunciations crimes responsibility particular, 2020). (IDEM, Congress National in the and (STF) Court Supreme institutions, political the to supporters president's the by tookplace on thestreets andon socialnetworks lately, alongside pro demonstrationswith virulent criticism events: these to addition In health. of Ministers two alleged an dismiss the and Police to Federal the with dueinterfere to Bolsonaro JusticePresident by attempt of Ministry the Culture. from of exit Secretary Moro's Sérgio the had from we speech Finally, allusion Nazi PSL; the with rupture the political of defense Case; Marielle the of investigations Amazon; the in Police;fires the month, Minas Gerais same (MAGALHÃES,2020). That Presidency. the of MinisterTourism,of Secretariat General the from Bebianno Gustavo dismissed President The occurred. crisis first the 2/02/2019, On days. 50 every crisi political Political crisis and polarization / nationalization / polarization and crisis Political rsn te ocuin wee ehbt h seais ht a ocr Ti paper This occur. may that scenarios the exhibit I where conclusion, the present - rsdn Bloao eeae caiin rsdnils. e hs nt to not chose He presidentialism. coalition relegated Bolsonaro President In the face of so many turbulences, which characterize the political crisis, it is is it crisis, political the characterize which turbulences, many so of face the In of charges on whether based impeachment for requests several by Threatened Federal the with Conflicts months: following the in continued crises Political several by inception its since marked been has government Bolsonaro The

and the black swan Covid swan black the and 9 I Dcme 21, 5 o vtr hd h epcain ht President that expectation the had voters of 65% 2018, December In 19. . n 0 dy o gvrmn, oe n /522, cii ws counted was crisis a 5/15/2020, on government,done of days 500 In s. ation emerged. The National Congress, in particular, the Chamber of of Chamber the particular, in Congress, National The emerged. ation

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of Justice Sérgio Moro, President Bolsonaro chooses Bolsonaro President Moro, Sérgio Justice of

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but are not necessarily Lulistas. My hypothesis is that supporters of will Bolsonaro Jair of supporters that is hypothesis My Lulistas. necessarily not are but convincedBolsonaro'sPresident municipal election. It creates the nationalization of the municipal dispute. On one hand, the despite and it, of political Because remains. election presidential 2018 the polarization in The 2) observed government; the of assessment voter's the with interfere not do stable. was ofthe Republicwas of30% ofthe electorate and 36% ofrejection. President the of approval the 2019, December In Bad). (Bad/Very 30% by disapproved 4 Jato. 3 2 aspects: following The strength. the by builtmotivatedhypothesis This is Northeast Region. inobservedthe strongly be gains it around, way otherOf Mayor the to candidates opposition the for effects nationalization / polarization is it If the Bolsonaro. weaken Jair to of tends strength polarization period, election municipal the during unpopular presi the chance, any by If, electorate. the on nationalization / polarization the of ofvoterswho oppose toJair Bolsonaro. allies/defenders political are who Office theRepublic.Presidentof On Mayor the for candidates choose

Oliveira (2019) shows that polarization manifests due to the strong influence of Operation Lava Lava Operation of influence strong the to due manifests polarization that shows (2019) Oliveira Datafolha Research, 12/06/2019 Research, Datafolha 12/06/2019. Research, Datafolha

The polarization manifested in the last presidential election will remain in the the in remain will election presidential last the in manifested polarization The disapproval Bolsonaro's President 2019, December in crisis political the Despite h sz o te rsdn' pplrt wl sget h srnt ad fet of effects and strength the suggest will popularity president's the of size The

crisis, the president's popularity remains stable. remains popularity president's the crisis, There are two reasons for the permanence of this stability: 1) Political crises Political 1) stability: this of permanence the for reasons two are There

50%(Bad / Terrible) inthe Northeast region. 4) conflict; Presidentcha is Region betweenNortheast the relationshipin governors and BolsonaroBolsonaro the the that emphasize to I related government. governors Northeastern political the the represents and of represented position also it but, region, the for polic joint create to aims Consortium This Consortium. Northeast 3) againstvotesthe Bolsonaro,valid 30.3% nowJairof president; obtain 2) for president (PT) of the Republic Haddad in the last nationalFernando elections; supported who governors by commanded 1)

In December 2019, the disapproval of President Bolsonaro was of of was Bolsonaro President of disapproval the 2019, December In elections national 2018’s the in (PT), Haddad Fernando Candidate h gvros f h Nrhat ein rae i Jl 21 the 2019 July in created Region Northeast the of governors The The Northeast region has nine states. Of this total, six are are six total, this Of states. nine has region Northeast The ed in the Northeast Region during the 2nd round, 69.7% of the of 69.7% round, 2nd the duringRegion Northeast the in ed

the otherthehand, thesecompetitors willhave rejectionthe

voters. On the other, voters who reject the president, the reject who voters other, the On voters.

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Janeiro, 8.5%. Unlike the Northeast, there is no Consortium of governors in other other in governors of Consortium no is regions. there Northeast, the Unlike 8.5%. Janeiro, Jair candidate the with main alliance two the of chiefs are informal They president. an the with broke they in 2019 in However, elected Bolsonaro. were Janeiro, de Rio and Mato Grosso)and RatinhoJúnior (PSD AntonioDenarium (PSL governorsfoursupportof the Republichas thePresident of2020,the May in today, Fifteengovernors supportedthe electi elections” (DANTAS, 2020). 5 municipalelection tendsoccurto inseveral states fromfederation.the Mostgov the of nationalization / polarization the that consider I governors, from support (2) and 2018’spresidential elections 1 Table year's this in executive municipal the elec for dispute the in candidates of “Bolsonaristas” performance the weaken may fact a Such regions. other the of governors the from we that points two are thereNevertheless,benefited. be may alliesBolsonaro's President benefited be can Bolsonaro President pres

Te oiia cnrl f h government the of control political “The aken this last statement: President Bolsonaro does not have the majority of support support of majority the have not does Bolsonaro President statement: last this aken tion. identialelection, noticeINortheastthethatin Region,candidates thatopposite to

statesinthe Southeast Region. São Paulo has 22.4% of voters inBrazil and Riode João Dória and Wilson Witzel, respectively, governors of the states of São Paulo Paulo São of states the of governors respectively, Witzel, Wilson and Dória João regions? other in place take dispute municipal the of nationalization the Will Taking as reference the variables (1) polarization of the past presidential election election presidential past the of polarization (1) variables the reference as Taking past the in HaddadFernandoandBolsonaro Jair performanceof the at Looking

Performance of Fernando Haddad and Jair Bolsonaro in the 2nd Round of the of Round2nd the in BolsonaroJair andHaddadFernando Performance of 5

Source: TSE. Source: Central Southeast Northeast Region South North - Rondônia), Marcos Rocha (PSL Rocha Marcos Rondônia),

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- on of candidate Jair Bolsonaro in 2018. However,2018. incandidateBolsonaroJair ofon Paran Haddad 33,5% 34,6% 31,7% 69,7% 48,1% - -

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favor of social isolation. The governors of Rodônia and Roraima did not speak out. speak not did Roraima and Rodônia of governors The isolation. social of favor in outgovernorsspoke 3/25/2020, 25normality. On to return a forstatementcalling Covid against actions government's Bolsonaro the leading by prominence gains Mandetta 61 A Paulo. São of city cities. several in be also Bolsonaro present. will president President the of to opponents versus bolsonaristas opposition between Polarization in candidates support will 6 Graph 1 President influenced governors with increased. has narratives rate failure The voters. among performance of Bolsonaro's conflict the to addition in Brazil andon68%, victims. coronavirus of protocol treatment the in chloroquine isolation.Teich resigned for not agreeing with PresidentBolsonaro regarding theuse of fightingCovid in role his governmentofbecause the left resigns office,Teich in amonth completingBefore replacement. Mandetta's as Teich Nelson announces mandatary Executive's the day, same that On The effects of Covid of effects The

Datafolha Research, 4/27/2020. Research, Datafolha - On February 26, 2020, the first case of coronavirus i coronavirus of case first the 2020, 26, February On n /322, 6 spotd oil slto. n /722, hs upr was support this 4/17/2020, On isolation. social supported 76% 4/03/2020, On 4/16/2020,On President Bolsonaro dismisses Health Minister Henrique 9 Sca ioain s t fa. n /422, Presiden 3/24/2020, On flag. its is isolation Social 19.

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ugss ht oil slto mitis r rns ouaiy o oenr i the in governors to popularity brings or maintains isolation social that suggests that than popularity greater 34%approval against 55%of thegovernor Wilson Witzel (PSC). 28 Paulo,hadaapproval51% rating(Great /Good), meanwhile President Bolsonaro hada São of governor(PSDB), Dória João thatrevealed April early in ResearchDatafolha A three 5/12/2020 in CNT/MDA from (27/04/2020); 4/27/2020 in (12/05/2020);and from XP/IPESPE Research in 5/20/2020 (20/05/2020). Datafolha Source: 8 7 supported by part by the electorate. the despite coronavirus, de president'snarrative, the that disapproval, the suggests 42.3% against actions government's Bolsonaro the of voters socialisolation causesvoterssupport togovernors. However, themajorityapproval by thatthevoter approves social isolation,a measure taken bygo us showdataThese 26.8%. disapproved andby 69.2%approvedby pandemic are the against actions Governors' disapprove. 42.3% And pandemic. the of face the in action states resulted from actions to confront Covid subnationalof heads the of approvalthe in increase the thatconsider toplausible is governors.Ja theIn southeastern states.

CNT /CNT MDAResearch, May 2020.10, Datafolha Research, 4/03/2020. Research, Datafolha % approval rating. In the state of , the President of the Republic hadRepublic the Presidentof Janeiro,the de Rio of state the Inapprovalrating. %

João Dória and Wilson Witzel are in favor of social isolation and in April had had April in and isolation social of favor in are Witzel Wilson and Dória João These performance. economic and toll death voters, on isolation social of Effects Due to the data above, three causal hypotheses arise: hypotheses causal three above, data the to Due approved voters of51.7% May, In data: precious Two approvedGood) / (Great 41.3% that revealedMay early in survey MDA / CNT A variables need to be analyzed and monitored for their repercussionsanalyzedandvoter. be on needvariables monitoredthe their forto

nuary, without the presence of Covid of presence the without nuary, ● ● ●

popularitygiven that heis against social isolation Governorstoo. Unlike the Presidentof the Republic who may lose popularity. lose not will duration, its of regardless isolation, Social loosen to Bolsonaro re decide Jair aspects, President popularity. lose not other do Governorsisolation. social of voters, regardless of governors, portion significant and a in support loses isolation Social President result, a Bols As decline. will As popularity time. governors' long a such, for lasts it if support voter loses isolation Social

f rsdn Bloao Teeoe dt fo ery April early from data Therefore, Bolsonaro. President of onaro'spopularity remainsstable or increases;

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deaths will be attributed to whom to attributed be will deaths of number the forresponsibility The 1,491. Amazonas, and 1,745;Pernambuco, 1,856; Ceará,3,080;Janeiro, de Rio Followedby 5,147.deaths: of number the ledthat state Covid mechanisms presented is social isolation. Specifically, its permanence or absence. provides Republic the stabilityor adecline of inth President the of or popularity decline the to in President increase the The stabilize. of popularity the causes it increases, or stable remains influences it the choice case,of the suffragist. this In active. not and variables neutral be will They election. municipal the variables not are they is, That isolation. social as arise hypotheses Two effects. economic the consider also voters must on effects’ isolation social the of comprehension The expected. is crisis not.Thedoes president social isolation. defends

- Another important variable that can influence voters is the number of deaths by deaths ofnumber the influencevotersis canvariableimportantAnotherthat hypotheses three The Finally, two hypotheses well As choice. voter's the affect not may deaths of number the that emphasize I a and trade the close to possible it made has isolation Social Onceagain, I present hypotheses 9 O 52/00 Brazil 5/20/2020, On 19.

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e popularity of governors. The variable that motivates the two two the motivates that variable The governors. of popularity e attribute to President Bolsonaro the responsibility for the great great the voters for economiccrisis. The president's popularity responsibility declines. Most the Bolsonaro President to popularity. attribute social high and maintain governors Governors to attributed isolation. not is crisis economic The the of President gainsmaintains Republic soor popularityit. The popularity. losing decreed are who states subnational ones the were they because governors, the to attributed is crisis economic The presentedpopularity showgovernorsasymmetries.of Ifthe : ● ●

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relationships (MINOIS,relationships 2016). hypothese on based futures reasonable of construction decision actors' the guide to serve They hypotheses. possibilities, are Scenarios election. municipal Conclusion term. safety, public health, which, sanitation.electionlocalThe amongstronglyisdependent mayorthe on agenda, voter's the be will city Local the voters. of of themes universe expressive the on effect no has is, it big how of regardless governor of popularity The voters. of majority the on influence no Covid Polarizationnationalization/present.effects nottheofawareof is arenotMost voters Covid topic for voters in the electoral election. Municipal managers who have effectively faced popularity lose and isolation to due crisis economic the for responsible held are Governors Bolsonaro. pro candidates’ benefits nationalization Polarization/ occur. may growth Popularity go by defended isolation social of discourse the over prevails Republic the of President theof discourse w Mayors dispute. municipal the in votersduring the Covid efficiently for topic relevant a is health socialisolation maintain high popularity and exert apositive influence on voters. Public defendwho Bolsonarism. Governors tooppose candidateswho benefits nationalization polarreduced,president theofpopularity the WithBolsonaro. Jairof popularity Covid against Republic the of President the of behavior The president. the of candidates opposition

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presented, I do not disregard the possibility that municipal elections will be disputed be will elections municipal that possibility the disregard not do I presented, scenarios the to addition in is Therefore, sharply. STF decline may the popularity government's for out ruled be not should investigatingPresidentthe the Republic,of political the scenario crisis exists, B andthe a Such Bolsonaro. President of weakof relativeStrong,and,or influence course, dispute. isolationeconomicandcrisis. These variablesthree localinfluence canthevoterin the Covid 3) crises; economic and Political 2) nationalization; basic the present to scenarios.Notethethatscenario choose building based threevariables:ison I However, scenarios. other of construction the enable PEARL,Judea; MACKENZIE,Dana. OLIVEIRA, Flávio Rochade; MARQUES,Moises da Silva. OLIVEIRA, Adriano. OLIVEIRA, Adriano.Os recados das eleições municipais de 2016? Manutençãodo MINOIS,George. MAGALHÃES, Guilherme.Governo Bolsonaro tem aomenos uma crise a cada 50 dias; reserva? nos 2020 oque municipais: Eleições Humberto. DANTAS, References a scenarios electoral thedispute. future municipal ofthe understanding the to article this of their contribution and variables, voter, these the of on identification The effects mayor. possible of position the for like look will responsibility. a or impeachment an to responding Republic the of representative the with I bring another variable, which was not addressed during the text: impeachment impeachment text: the during addressed not was which variable, another bring I to power the have relations, causal bring which presented, hypotheses The 2018. Traduçãode TemasJoséefeito. Roberto. Lisboa: e Debates 2014. Atlas, GEN São Paulo: problemas. e análises conceitos, lulismoao bolsonarismo. Curitiba:CRV, 2019. quo Pau São ed. 1° Echalar. relembre10delas. português em Democracy election the what absence,suggest theirorpresented, variables theof effects The

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análise de conjuntura, a construção de de construção a a conjuntura, utilizar de de importância análise Este a revela apresentados. três artigo são destas causais eleitor variáveis no efeitos possíveis econômica; e d política a Polarização/nacionalização; para consideradas construção são variáveis clareza. Três adquire municipal disputa futura a cenários, de construção da e mecanismos apresentadas por explicação eleição da Utilizando serão artigo. neste da vindoura características municipal possíveis As RESUMO SãoPaulo:2018 Brett. Objetiva, Renato de Nassim. TALEB, eleitor; prospectiva do Comportamento para PAL prospectiva análise a explicarcomportamento o do votante. e cenários AVRAS :

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11 Revista Observatório, Palmas, v. 6, n. 3, p. 1-11, Apr-Jun. 2020 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20873/uft.2447-4266.2020v6n3a10en