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Retail Sector INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Retail Sector A new dawn: Pushing digital and physical boundaries INDIA | RETAIL | Sector Initiation 11 September 2019 The Indian retail sector is going through a very interesting phase, characterised by a Companies curious interplay between e-commerce, technology, and customer experience with brick- and-mortar stores at the centre of it all. Rapid digitisation is driving new customer trends ABFRL and behaviour. Hyper-customization and mass personalization are expected to be basic Reco BUY offerings from retail brands. Millennials tend to cherish experiences rather than CMP, Rs 189 ownership; this mantra has influenced retail too, with experience (innovative presentation Target Price, Rs 262 of products) becoming the new inventory in the sector. Technology has become integral to both B2B and B2C experiences and data analytics and AI are helping companies to FLFL influence both customer-level analytics and store level assortment. Here are the trends Reco BUY that we believe will impact, influence, and shape the future of Indian retail. CMP, Rs 428 Target Price, Rs 556 1) Focus on ‘stores of the future’: Over the next 3-5 years, customer experience will overtake price and product as key differentiators for retailers. Focus on personalised Shoppers Stop services such as endless aisles, self-checkouts, VR zones, free Wi-Fi, lounge areas, Reco BUY WhatsApp shopping, wheelchair services, virtual trial rooms, and customised 3D CMP, Rs 395 printing of accessories will differentiate retailers and drive footfalls. Target Price, Rs 520 2) Investments in private labels to boost margins: With a focus on value offerings, retailers are pushing their private-label brands to control their value chains in terms of Trent designing, branding, sourcing, logistics, promotions, and pricing. This helps them to Reco BUY differentiate themselves and to offer freshness in their stores, along with improving CMP, Rs 460 their working capital and margins. Target Price, Rs 540 3) The rising importance of omni channels: E-commerce transactions are growing 3x faster in tier-2 cities (and beyond) vs. metros. Companies need to invest in their omni V-Mart Retail channels, as these reduce duplication of inventory, increase store throughput, and offer Reco Neutral seamless online and offline experiences to customers. If they do not, new challenger CMP, Rs 2145 brands are already poised to disrupt existing business models, with their e-commerce Target Price, Rs 1905 focussed distribution and influencer and Instagram-led marketing campaigns. 4) The rise of tier 2 and 3 cities with growing value fashion: The next growth phase for Indian retail will come from places with populations of less than a million, through the growing affluent households in these areas. These places will emerge as growth drivers for entry-level fashion retailers due to urbanization and swift moves away from ready- to-stitch towards ready-to-wear, based on increasing supply and value economics. We initiate coverage on five apparel-retail companies. Trent and Aditya Birla Fashion are our preferred bets, followed by Future Lifestyle and Shoppers Stop. ABFRL (BUY): Best placed to lead the recovery in men’s wear through Madura and women’s wear through Pantaloons. Opportunity for margin expansion and reducing D/E will drive a re-rating. FLFL (BUY): One of the largest branded apparel and physical retailers in India. Virtual monopoly as a liquidation channel through Brand Factory and experience-driven shopping through Central will drive growth. Shoppers Stop (BUY): Expected to script a turnaround with the new management, relentless focus on private label, beauty category, and increased customer engagement through its personal shopper and membership programs. Trent (BUY): Premium valuation will be sustained by rapid store expansion through Westside, larger pie in value fashion through Zudio, healthy SSSG, and margin expansion. Zara continues to remain a value creator. V-Mart Retail (NEUTRAL): We believe increasing competitive intensity would mute Ankit Kedia (+ 9122 6246 4122) margin expansion, even as its return ratios remain flat over the next few years. Current [email protected] valuations are rich, leaving little room for disappointment. Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. (“PHILLIPCAP”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer. RETAIL SECTOR INITIATION Table of Contents Executive summary ··································································································· 3 India retail opportunity ······························································································ 6 Digital to impact, influence, shape the future of retail ·············································· 8 Increasing use of data analytics to understand consumer behaviour························ 11 Retailers are focusing on ‘store of the future’ ··························································· 14 Use of digital in supply chain management ······························································· 19 Focus on private label to boost margins ···································································· 21 Omni channel – Invest or perish ················································································ 25 The rise of tier-2/3 cities and value fashion ······························································· 34 Comparison across retailers ······················································································· 39 Valuations and outlook ······························································································ 45 Companies Section Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail ··················································································· 49 Future Lifestyle Fashions ···························································································· 69 Shoppers Stop ············································································································ 91 Trent ··························································································································· 115 V-Mart Retail ·············································································································· 140 Page | 2 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH RETAIL SECTOR INITIATION Executive summary Digital to impact, influence, shape the future of retail Offline retailers will find it difficult to differentiate themselves based on traditional factors such as price, promotions, location, and assortment alone. We think that ‘experience over ownership’ would be the new mantra for millennials, and ‘experience’ would be the new inventory in retail. With increasing reliance on technology through the internet and mobiles, consumers are leaving behind an enormous personal digital footprint. Also, technology is becoming intertwined and seamless – in both B2B and B2C experiences. It is providing an opportunity for retailers to acquire new customers, engage better with existing customers, and reduce costs of operations, along with other benefits that impact revenues and margins. Data analytics and AI is helping companies to influence customer-level analytics and store-level assortment among others. With the help of loyalty programs, companies understand customer preferences and aspirations, offer tailor-made promotions, and manage their entire life-cycle. Retailers are focusing on ‘store of the future’ Customers are becoming channel agnostic, leading to the rapid adoption of multi- channel commerce. Well-integrated technology is no longer an ‘add-on’ but a ‘basic necessity’, needed to deliver unique customer experiences and increase customer stickiness. In fact, over the next 3-5 years, customer experience will overtake price and product as a key brand differentiator. To drive footfalls to stores, retailers are focusing on endless aisles, self-checkouts, VR zones, free Wi-Fi, lounge area, WhatsApp shopping, wheelchair service, virtual trial rooms, and customised 3D printing of accessories. We expect AI services, smart assistance, and cameras and sensors in stores delivering personalised services to customers in the medium term. Use of digital in supply-chain management We believe supply-chain challenges are multi-fold in the current environment including: (1) inventory management, (2) demand forecast accuracy, (3) order fulfilment, and (4) returns management. Technology has helped design systems to manage and enhance exchange of information between various supply-chain partners to attain outcomes such as increased control over demand planning, better inventory management, and effective and near real-time tracking and delivery. Single view of inventory for efficient execution of online orders is a key for higher sales through the omni channel. Using technology to establish a two-way flow of information, retailers have started to adopt the ‘replenish and pull’ supply-chain model against the ‘forecast and push’ model, leading to better inventory management. Focus on private labels to boost margins All Indian retailers are focussing on private-label apparel,
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