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Geothermal Hydrogen Roadmap FINAL

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Geothermal Hydrogen Roadmap FINAL The United States Department of Energy provided funds for this report under Cooperative Agreement No. DE- FG36-06R038602. This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Government. Neither the United States Government or the State of Hawaii, or the University of Hawaii, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, mark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government, the State of Hawaii, the University of Hawaii, or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of the authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government, the State of Hawaii, the University of Hawaii, or any agency or employee thereof. ii ANALYSIS OF GEOTHERMALLY PRODUCED HYDROGEN ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII: A Roadmap for the Way Forward September 30, 2008 Prepared by: Sentech, Inc. 7475 Wisconsin Ave., Ste. 900 Bethesda, MD 20814 [t] 240-223-5500 [f] 240-223-5501 Elvin Yuzugullu (Project Manager) Karen Genung Ryan Hoesly Prepared for: State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT) University of Hawaii Hawaii Natural Energy Institute (HNEI) iii This page intentionally left blank. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .....................................................................................................................VIII 1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Purpose of Roadmap........................................................................................................................1 1.2 Summary of Previous Work.........................................................................................................2 1.3 Approach ................................................................................................................................................2 2. THE BIG ISLAND’S CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION......................................... 3 2.1. Geothermal Resources/Capacity..............................................................................................3 2.2 Electricity Generation .....................................................................................................................6 2.3 Energy Costs..........................................................................................................................................6 2.4 Constraints ............................................................................................................................................7 2.4.1 Population Distribution and Trends .........................................................................................7 2.4.2. Transportation System and Trends..............................................................................................8 2.4.3. Cultural and Environmental Concerns .......................................................................................9 2.5 Existing Policies..................................................................................................................................9 3 ROADMAP ..................................................................................................................10 3.1 Analyses Supporting Roadmap Development................................................................ 10 3.2 Primary End­Use Application .................................................................................................. 12 3.3 Hydrogen Potential for Transportation Sector ............................................................. 14 3.4 Roadmap Deployment Phases................................................................................................. 16 3.4.1 Phase I (2008 – 2012): Initial Prototype Test and Validation of Infrastructure.. 17 3.4.2 Phase II (2012 – 2020): Proof­of­Concept Demonstration Period............................... 21 3.4.3 Phase III (2020 and beyond): Aggressive Expansion, Investment and Commercialization................................................................................................................................................. ................................................................................................................................................................... 25 3.5 Potential Partners and Their Roles..................................................................................... 28 3.6 State and/or County Policy Path............................................................................................ 30 3.7 Education and Outreach ............................................................................................................. 30 3.8 Economic Impacts........................................................................................................................... 31 4. CONCLUSIONS...........................................................................................................32 APPENDIX A: ENERGY PICTURE OF THE STATE OF HAWAII ................................................38 APPENDIX B: FORECASTED GEOTHERMAL RESOURCE BASE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII .......................................................................................................................40 APPENDIX C: POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND TRENDS.....................................................41 APPENDIX D: TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM AND TRENDS.......................................................44 APPENDIX E: CONSTRUCTIVE POLICIES.......................................................................................48 APPENDIX F: DETAILS OF ANALYSES ............................................................................................51 APPENDIX G: POSSIBLE FUTURE INTEGRATION OF OTHER RENEWABLES.....................74 APPENDIX H: OTHER POTENTIAL PARTNERS, COOPERATING GROUPS AND SUPPORTERS ............................................................................................................77 APPENDIX I: ECONOMIC IMPACTS .................................................................................................81 v LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 2‐1. GEOTHERMAL RESOURCE AREAS ON THE BIG ISLAND. ...................................................................4 FIGURE 2‐2. KILAUEA EAST RIFT ZONE ON THE BIG ISLAND................................................................................5 FIGURE 2‐3. BIG ISLAND ELECTRICITY GENERATION RESOURCE BREAKDOWN BASED ON KWH PRODUCED (2007). ............................................................................................................................................6 FIGURE 2‐4. RELATIVE PRICES OF GASOLINE AND RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY IN THE STATE OF HAWAII AND THE U.S. ...................................................................................................................................7 FIGURE 2‐5. TREND OF PASSENGER CAR REGISTRATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. ................................................8 FIGURE 3‐1: THE EFFECT OF ELECTRICITY COST ON HYDROGEN COST. ........................................................... 11 FIGURE 3‐2: ANTICIPATED COST OF HYDROGEN FROM INITIAL DEPLOYMENT THROUGH 2025................ 12 FIGURE 3‐3: CAPACITY REQUIRED TO MEET THE BIG ISLAND'S TRANSPORTATION NEEDS......................... 15 FIGURE 3‐4: CRATER RIM DRIVE AND CHAIN OF CRATERS ROAD, TO BE UTILIZED BY DEMO BUSES IN PHASE I OF THE ROADMAP ........................................................................................................ 21 FIGURE A‐1. PETROLEUM IS REFINED FOR A NUMBER OF USES IN THE STATE OF HAWAII........................... 38 FIGURE A‐2. ELECTRICITY GENERATION PORTFOLIO FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII......................................... 39 FIGURE A‐3. RENEWABLE AND NON‐RENEWABLE ENERGY PRODUCTION IN HAWAII (AS OF 12/31/07; DOES NOT INCLUDE KAUAI) ....................................................................................................... 39 FIGURE C‐1. BIG ISLAND DISTRICTS AND IMBALANCE BETWEEN LOAD DEMAND AND GENERATION CAPACITY....................................................................................................................................... 41 FIGURE C‐2. POPULATION TRENDS ON THE BIG ISLAND. .................................................................................... 42 FIGURE D‐1. MAJOR HIGHWAYS ON THE BIG ISLAND........................................................................................... 44 FIGURE F‐1. HYDROGEN PRODUCTION AND DELIVERY PATHWAYS. .................................................................. 52 FIGURE F‐2. COST PER KILOGRAM OF HYDROGEN PER KWH. ............................................................................. 61 FIGURE F‐3. TOTAL HYDROGEN PRODUCED AND THE AMOUNT OF DIESEL FUEL DISPLACED PER YEAR.... 61 FIGURE F‐4. HAWAII FUEL USAGE 16‐YEAR TREND. ........................................................................................... 62 FIGURE F‐5. COST COMPONENTS FOR EACH ELECTROLYZER. ............................................................................. 63 FIGURE F‐6.
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