Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1355–1382, 2021 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1355-2021 © Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Fatalities associated with the severe weather conditions in the Czech Republic, 2000–2019 Rudolf Brázdil1,2, Katerinaˇ Chromá2, Lukáš Dolák1,2, Jan Rehoˇ rˇ1,2, Ladislava Rezníˇ ckovᡠ1,2, Pavel Zahradnícekˇ 2,3, and Petr Dobrovolný1,2 1Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic 2Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic 3Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Brno, Czech Republic Correspondence: Rudolf Brázdil ([email protected]) Received: 12 January 2021 – Discussion started: 21 January 2021 Revised: 25 March 2021 – Accepted: 26 March 2021 – Published: 4 May 2021 Abstract. This paper presents an analysis of fatalities at- with fatal accidents as well as a decrease in their percent- tributable to weather conditions in the Czech Republic dur- age in annual numbers of fatalities. The discussion of results ing the 2000–2019 period. The database of fatalities de- includes the problems of data uncertainty, comparison of dif- ployed contains information extracted from Právo, a lead- ferent data sources, and the broader context. ing daily newspaper, and Novinky.cz, its internet equivalent, supplemented by a number of other documentary sources. The analysis is performed for floods, windstorms, convective storms, rain, snow, glaze ice, frost, heat, and fog. For each 1 Introduction of them, the associated fatalities are investigated in terms of annual frequencies, trends, annual variation, spatial distribu- Natural disasters are accompanied not only by extensive ma- tion, cause, type, place, and time as well as the sex, age, and terial damage but also by great loss of human life, facts easily behaviour of casualties. There were 1164 weather-related fa- derived from data held by re-insurance agencies (e.g. Mu- talities during the 2000–2019 study period, exhibiting a sta- nich RE, 2018; Swiss Re, 2019; Willis Re, 2019). It is tistically significant falling trend. Those attributable to frost therefore hardly surprising that this situation was also re- (31 %) predominated, followed by glaze ice, rain, and snow. flected in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduc- Fatalities were at their maximum in January and December tion 2015–2030 (SFDRR), adopted at the Third UN World and at their minimum in April and September. Fatalities aris- Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in Sendai (Japan) on ing out of vehicle accidents (48 %) predominated in terms of 18 March 2015. The framework suggested targets and prior- structure, followed by freezing or hypothermia (30 %). Most ities intended “to prevent new and reduce existing disaster deaths occurred during the night. Adults (65 %) and males risks” (UNODRR, 2020; Wright et al., 2020). Events asso- (72 %) accounted for the majority of fatalities, while indi- ciated with climate and weather constitute highly important rect fatalities were more frequent than direct ones (55 % to elements among natural disasters in terms of the damage they 45 %). Hazardous behaviour accounted for 76 %. According do and associated fatalities, as documented by the great num- to the database of the Czech Statistical Office, deaths caused ber of papers addressing fatalities at worldwide or continen- by exposure to excessive natural cold are markedly predomi- tal scales. For example, Ferreira et al. (2013) investigated the nant among five selected groups of weather-related fatalities, impact of development on flood fatalities in 92 countries be- and their numbers exhibit a statistically significant rise dur- tween 1985 and 2008. Holle (2016) presented a worldwide ing 2000–2019. Police yearbooks of the fatalities arising out overview of lightning fatalities. Gasparrini et al. (2017) in- of vehicle accidents indicate significantly decreasing trends vestigated projections of excess-temperature-related mortal- in the frequency of inclement weather patterns associated ity for a range of climate-change scenarios. Vicedo-Cabrera et al. (2018) evaluated changes in heat- and cold-related Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 1356 R. Brázdil et al.: Fatalities associated with the severe weather conditions in the Czech Republic, 2000–2019 mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agree- In the Czech Republic, just as on the international scale, ment targets. Franzke and Torelló i Sentelles (2020) analysed studies of fatalities associated with heat waves are the most trends in weather and climate hazards based on continentally frequent (e.g. Kyselý and Kríž,ˇ 2008; Kyselý and Plavcová, aggregated fatality data in relation to large-scale climate vari- 2012; Knobová et al., 2014; Hanzlíková et al., 2015; Urban ability. et al., 2017; Arsenovic´ et al., 2019). However, attention has Although Europe suffered only 8.9 % of worldwide also been devoted to the fatal effects of cold spells. For ex- climate- and weather-related fatalities in 1980–2017, far ample, Kyselý et al. (2009) and Plavcová and Urban (2020) fewer than Asia (71.1 %) and slightly fewer than North analysed the impacts of compound winter extremes upon America (13.7 %) (Munich RE, 2018), Europe also has a mortality rates. Brázdová (2012) worked on selected floods very serious problem; particular attention has been paid to in the Czech Republic in order to develop a simple model deaths associated with heat waves and floods on this conti- for estimation of flood fatalities. Czech flood fatality data nent. The exceedingly hot summer of 2003 (Fink et al., 2004; also appeared in the EUFF database and were worked upon García-Herrera et al., 2010), when heat waves accounted for by Petrucci et al. (2019a). Brázdil et al. (2019b) analysed over 70 000 fatalities (especially in France, Germany, Italy, the potential of documentary data in the study of weather- Portugal, Romania, Spain, and the UK; e.g. Robine et al., related fatalities and presented preliminary results for the 2008), brought the problem into sharp focus. Heat waves 1981–2018 period. and drought in the European part of Russia during July– Inclement weather conditions, such as glaze ice, hoar frost, September 2010 brought about ca. 56 000 fatalities (Shmakin snow, rain, fog, etc., may contribute to the occurrence of ve- et al., 2013; Munich RE, 2014). Heat-wave-related mortality hicle accidents accompanied by casualties. On a wider scale, has been extensively investigated at the national level for sev- there exist many papers that address the effects of various eral European countries, among them Slovakia (Vyberckiˇ et weather conditions and floods on vehicle transport and acci- al., 2015), Finland (Kim et al., 2018), Poland (Graczyk et dents (e.g. Andrey et al., 2003, 2010; Eisenberg and Warner, al., 2019), and in western Europe (Vautard et al., 2020). In 2005; Brijs et al., 2008; Diakakis and Deligiannakis, 2013; contrast, slightly less attention has been devoted to mortal- Jackson and Sharif, 2016; Han and Sharif, 2020a, b). How- ity during cold spells (e.g. Analitis et al., 2008; Ebi, 2015; ever, studies of weather-related casualties arising out of ve- Kinney et al., 2015; Psistaki et al., 2020). The impacts of cli- hicle accidents are absent for the Czech Republic. For ex- mate change on future heat- and cold-related mortality in the ample, without reference to fatalities, only case studies re- Netherlands were evaluated by Botzen et al. (2020). lated to hoar-frost or glaze-ice situations (e.g. Sulan, 2006; Studies of flood-related fatalities, sometimes linked with Zahradnícekˇ et al., 2018) or damage to road networks caused those associated with landslides, tend to focus on southern by natural disasters (Bíl et al., 2015) are available. Europe and the Mediterranean (e.g. Zêzere et al., 2014; Di- The first 2 decades of the 21st century make up the period akakis, 2016; Pereira et al., 2016, 2017; Diakakis and Deli- that experienced the most profound temperature increases giannakis, 2017; Salvati et al., 2018; Vinet et al., 2019; worldwide since records began, including the Czech Re- Grimalt-Gelabert et al., 2020), although similar studies ex- public (e.g. Zahradnícekˇ et al., 2021). The general increase ist also in other countries (e.g. Hilker et al., 2009, for in frequency and severity of climatic and weather hazards Switzerland and Špitalar et al., 2020, for Slovenia). Petrucci (IPCC, 2012, 2013; Hoppe, 2016) raises the question as to et al. (2019b) presented the MEditerranean Flood Fatali- whether this situation has also been reflected in the number ties (MEFF) database with detailed data concerning flood fa- of fatalities associated with weather phenomena. The cur- talities in five Mediterranean regions for the 1980–2015 pe- rent paper consists of an investigation and analysis of vari- riod, later extended to nine regions for the 1980–2018 period ability and existing trends in weather-related fatalities over as the EUropean Flood Fatalities (EUFF) database (Petrucci the territory of the Czech Republic in the 2000–2019 period et al., 2019a). with respect to a selection of influencing factors. The work is Other weather hazards attract less attention. For example, based on the mortality database compiled by the authors from lightning fatalities and injuries were studied for the United newspaper data and other official or administrative sources of Kingdom by Elsom (2001) and Elsom and Webb (2014) and information. The paper represents the first detailed and com- for Romania by Antonescu and Carbunaru˘ (2018). Haque et prehensive analysis of weather-related fatalities in the Czech al. (2016) investigated fatal landslides in Europe. Fatalities Republic, with particular respect to spatiotemporal variabil- associated with a number of natural hazards in Switzerland ity and the basic features that underlie them. Its results may were investigated by Badoux et al. (2016), while Heiser et make a significant contribution to disaster risk reduction in al. (2019) presented a torrential-event catalogue for Austria the Czech Republic.