July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini ITRS Past, Present and Future PaoloPaolo GarginiGargini ChairmanChairman ITRSITRS FellowFellow IEEE,IEEE, FellowFellow II--JSAPJSAP

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 2 AgendaAgenda

 InIn thethe beginningbeginning

 GeometricalGeometrical ScalingScaling

 ITRSITRS 1.01.0

 EquivalentEquivalent ScalingScaling

 PostPost CMOSCMOS

 ITRSITRS 2.02.0

 3D3D PowerPower ScalingScaling

 HeterogeneousHeterogeneous IntegrationIntegration

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 3 MooreMoore’’ss LawLaw -- 19651965

2X/Year ~65,000

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 4 The Semiconductor Business in the 70s

System Designer Product Proprietary Definition

Product Definition Open Semiconductor Market Company

Custom Standard Components Components

System Integration

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 5 The SX-70 The story of the struggle between Fairchild Instruments and Texas Instruments for the contract to supply the integrated circuitry for Polaroid's SX-70 camera, introduced in 1972, is related. Research and development work by both companies is described. The problems caused by Polaroid's secrecy regarding the overall camera design are highlighted

IEEE Spectrum archive Volume 26 Issue 5, May 1989

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 6 Phase 1 First Age of Scaling (Self-aligned Silicon Gate)

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 7 MOSMOS TransistorTransistor ScalingScaling (1972)

Scaled Constant Parameter Voltage Voltage S < 1 Supply Voltage (Vdd) S 1 Channel Length (Lg, Le) S S Channel Width (W) S S Gate Oxide Thickness (Tox) S S Substrate Doping (N) 1/s 1/s Drive Current (Id) S 1/s * Gate Capacitance (Cg) S S Gate Delay S S 2 Active Power S 3 S

* Does Not Include Carrier Velocity Saturation

R. H. Dennard et Others, “Design of Micron MOS Switching Devices”, IEDM, 1972

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 8 MOSMOS TransistorTransistor ScalingScaling (1970s)(1970s) S=0.7 [0.5x per 2 nodes]

Pitch Gate

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 9 Memory Cell Evolution

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 10 Second Update of Moore’s Law

20 19 2X/2Year 18 17 1975 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 of the number of of the number 7 2 1965 6 2X/Year 5 Log 4 3 2 1 components per integrated function components per 0 1976 1977 1978 1979 1966 1968 1970 1971 1972 1973 1967 1969 1974 1975 1980 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 Year International Electron Device Meeting, December 1975

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 11 ICIC IndustryIndustry atat aa GlanceGlance (1975)(1975)

Driver Cost/transistor -> 50% Reduction

How 2x Density/2 years (Moore)

Method Geometrical Scaling (Dennard)

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini The Computer Hobbyists

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 13 Operating system IBM BASIC / PC DOS 1.0 CP/M-86 UCSD p-System CPU Intel 8088 @ 4.77 MHz Memory 16 kB ~ 256 kB Sound 1-channel PWM August 12, 1981 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 14 First Moore’s Law Acceleration

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 15 Wintel

Windows

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 16 Over 40 years of Moore’s Law

34 16G 32 30 1G DRAM 28 MPU 26 64M EPROM 24 FLASH 1 22 4M FLASH 2 20 18 256K 16 14 16K 4X/3Y 12 2X/1Y 10 1K 8 2X/2Y components per integrated function components per

2 6 64 4 Log 2 1970 1980 1990 2000 0 1996 1997 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 1993 1994 1995 1998 1999 2004 1959 1961 1962 1963 1965 1966 1967 1968 1971 1972 1973 1974 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1960 1964 1969 1970 1975 1976 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 17 The Semiconductor Business in the 80-90s

Wintel Product Proprietary Definition

Product Software Design OS and Apps

Semiconductor Open Company Market

Standard Standard Components Components

System Integration

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 18 GateGate DielectricDielectric ScalingScaling

You Are Here! 4

3 1999 2 2001 Gate

1.2nm SiO Tox equivalent (nm) 2 1 2003

Silicon substrate 2005 0 4 8 12 Monolayers From My Files 1997 NTRS July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 19 Semiconductor Industry Globalization

$B July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 1998 ITRS Update

• Participation extended to: EECA, EIAJ, KSIA, TSIA at WSC on April 23,1998 • 1st Meeting held on July 10/11,1998 in San Francisco • 2nd meeting held on December 10/11,1998 at SFO • 50% of tables in 1997 NTRS required some changes • 1998 ITRS Update posted on web in April 1999

Tutorial for SEMI P.Gargini

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 21 Phase 2 Second Age of Scaling (Equivalent Scaling)

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 22 ITRS 1.0

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini TheThe IdealIdeal MOSMOS TransistorTransistor Metal Gate Insulator Source Drain

Fully Surrounding Fully Enclosed, Metal Electrode Depleted Semiconductor

High-K Low Resistance Gate Insulator Source/Drain Band Engineered Semiconductor From My Files

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 24 EquivalentEquivalent ScalingScaling

 StrainedStrained SiliconSilicon

 HighHigh--K/MetalK/Metal GateGate

 MultiMulti--gategate

 HigherHigher PerformancePerformance

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 25 ICIC IndustryIndustry atat aa GlanceGlance (1998(1998-->2003)>2003)

Driver Cost/transistor-> 50% Reduction

How 2x Density/2 years (Moore)

Method Equivalent Scaling ( ITRS1)

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 26 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 27 High-k/Metal-Gate (year 2000)

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 28 MobilityMobility InnovationInnovation Strained Strained N-Channel P-Channel 2003 Transistor Transistor High Stress Film

SiGe SiGe

July, 2015 ITRS/RC Source: Intel P.Gargini 29 July, 2015 ITRS/RC2007 P.Gargini 3030 2010 ITRS Summary MPU/high-performance2009 ITRS - Technology ASIC Half TrendsPitch and Gate Length Trends

1000 2009 ITRS MPU/ASIC Metal 1 (M1) ½ Pitch (nm) [historical trailing at 2-yr cycle; extended to 2013; then 3-yr cycle] 2009 ITRS MPU Printed Gate Length (GLpr) (nm) [3-yr cycle from 2011/35.3nm] 1 100 2009 ITRS MPU Physical Gate Length (nm) [begin 3.8-yr cycle from 2009/29.0nm] 2

3 16nm

Nanometers (1e-9) 4 10 Equivalent Geometrical Scaling Scaling

Near-Term Long-Term 1 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year of Production 2009 ITRS: 2009-2024

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 31 22 nm Tri-Gate Transistor

Gates Fins

Mark Bohr, Kaizad Mistry, May 2011 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 32 TransistorTransistor InnovationsInnovations EnableEnable TechnologyTechnology CadenceCadence

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

90 nm 65 nm 45 nm 32 nm 22 nm

SiGe SiGe

2nd Gen. 2nd Gen. First to SiGe SiGe Gate-Last Gate-Last Implement Strained Silicon Strained Silicon High-k Metal Gate High-k Metal Gate Tri-Gate

Strained Silicon

High k Metal gate

Tri-Gate

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 33 IncubationIncubation TimeTime

 StrainedStrained SiliconSilicon Metal Gate Insulator •• 19921992-->>20032003 Source Drain  HKMGHKMG

•• 19961996-->2007>2007 1998  RaisedRaised S/DS/D •• 19931993-->2009>2009  MultiGatesMultiGates •• 19971997-->2011>2011 ~ 12-15 years

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 34 Dec 2010

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 35 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 36 2D 3D

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 37 Question

How many more technology generations can Equivalent Scaling be extended for ?

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 38 Multigate FET Offers a Simple Way for Scaling and Improving Performance

5 4 3

Semicon Japan, December 6, 2013

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 39 Mark Bohr, August 11, 2014 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 40 Mark Bohr, August 11, 2014

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 41 Mark Bohr, August 11, 2014

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 42 Second Moore’s Law Acceleration

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 43 Mark Bohr, August 11, 2014

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 44 Mark Bohr, August 11, 2014

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 45 TechnologyTechnology NodeNode ScalingScaling

Today’s Challenge 14

10

7

5 Technology Node (nm) 3

2021 2019 2017 2015 2013 1 2013 ITRS July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 46 Apr 19th 2015

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 47 Phase 3 Third Age of Scaling (3D Power Scaling)

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 48 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 3D NAND Architecture

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 51 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 52 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 53 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini Kinam Kim, ISSCC, Feb 23, 2015 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 55 Toshiba Develops World's First 48-Layer BiCS (Three Dimensional Stacked Structure Flash Memory) Toshiba, and sample shipments of the 3D structure adopted NAND-type flash memory of 48-layer

Date March 27, 2015 Toshiba has announced that the 26th, began sample shipments of NAND-type flash memory that employs a three-dimensional (3D) structure of stacking the storage element vertically. First of the 3D flash memory for the company. At 48 the number of influences layer performance, it exceeded the existing products of competing Korea (32 layers). Compared to existing planar structure product, and appeal to the point of excellent writing speed and reliability of data to be proposed, such as enterprise data centers (DC). (Nobuyuki Goto)

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 56 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 57 Vertical Logic Architecture

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 58 ICIC IndustryIndustry atat aa GlanceGlance (2015(2015-->2021)>2021)

Driver Cost/transistor & power reduction

How 2x Density/2 years (Moore)

Method 3D Power Scaling (ITRS2)

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini …but the World has changed under are very own eyes

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 60 MM+MtMMM+MtM=Heterogeneous=Heterogeneous IntegrationIntegration

2006 More than Moore: Diversification

HV Sensors Analog/RF Passives Biochips Power Actuators

130nm Interacting with people and environment

90nm Non-digital content Co System-in-package m bi (SiP) 65nm nin g S Information oC an d 45nm Processing SiP : He ter Digital content og 32nm en More Moore: Miniaturization e System-on-chip ou s (SoC) Int 22nm eg rat ion Baseline CMOS: CPU, Memory, Logic Memory, CPU, CMOS: Baseline 16 nm . . . V Beyond CMOS 2006

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 61 Customized Functionality

2007

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 62 Tablet April 2010

A WiFi-only model of the tablet was released in April 2010, and a WiFi+3G model was introduced about a month later July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 63 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 64 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 65 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 66 21th Anniversary of TRS http://www.itrs.net 1991 Micro Tech 2000 1992NTRS 1994NTRS 1997NTRS Workshop Report Europe Japan Korea Taiwan USA

1998 ITRS 2000 ITRS 2002 ITRS 1999 ITRS 2001 ITRS Update Update Update

2004 ITRS 2006 ITRS 2003 ITRS 2005 ITRS 2007 ITRS Update Update

2008 ITRS 2010 ITRS 2012 ITRS 2009 ITRS 2011 ITRS Update Update Update

2013 ITRS

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 67 20132013 ITRSITRS ITWGsITWGs

1. System Drivers 2. Design 3. Test & Test Equipment 4. Process Integration, Devices, & Structures 5. RF and A/MS Technologies 6. Emerging Research Devices 7. Emerging Research Materials 8. Front End Processes 9. Lithography 10. Interconnect 11. Factory Integration 12. Assembly & Packaging 13. Environment, Safety, & Health 14. Yield Enhancement 15. Metrology 16. Modeling & Simulation 17. MEMs

68 Beyond 2020

O P Customized Functionality A P S Outside System Connectivity P Y L S E T System Integration T E S M Heterogeneous Integration

More than Moore

More Moore Beyond Moore

ITRS 2012

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 69 ITRS 2.0

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini BeyondBeyond 20202020 Themes April 2014 Focus Teams

System Integration System Integration

Outside System Connectivity Outside System Connectivity

Heterogeneous Integration Heterogeneous Integration

More than Moore Heterogeneous Components

Beyond Moore Beyond CMOS

More Moore More Moore

Manufacturing Factory Integration

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 71 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 72 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 73 SOCSOC--CPCP DieDie SizeSize TrendTrend

•Die size considerations • Cost • Power • Demand for tiny smartphone form factor 100mm2 A 7 •Die size limit ~100mm2

•Survey inputs suggest increasing die area • Demand for functionality • Non-scaling BEOL • 2.5-D logic-logic integration

[PCWatch]

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 74 Inside the from the iPhone 5s (Courtesy of Chipworks)

July, 2015 1 billion transistorsITRS/RC on a die 102 mm2 P.Gargini 75 ExampleExample ofof Segregating:Segregating: SensorSensor HubHub

• To monitor user behavior, sensors must be always-on • Power penalty is high for main processor • Reverse trend against integration • (WAS) Main processor controls sensors directly • (IS) Low power sensor hub controls sensors instead (WAS) (IS)

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 76 iPhone 6

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 77 A 8 (2 Billion Transistors)

The is, of course, the most interesting element in the new iPhone 6. All clues point to it being manufactured by TSMC on a 20nm node, and that makes it one of the first 20nm chips out there. The A8 is also some 13% smaller than last year’s A7, while packing nearly double the amount of transistors - up from around 1 billion to some 2 billion transistors in the Apple A8. And yes, RAM is still 1GB on the iPhone July,6. 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 78 ~6.5B

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 79 Leakage and Power Reduction

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 80 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 81 IEEE Rebooting Computing

RebootingRebooting Computing:Computing: RethinkingRethinking AllAll LevelsLevels ofof HowHow WeWe ComputeCompute

Tom Conte Professor of ECE & CS Georgia Institute of Technology 2015 President, Computer Society

82 IEEE Rebooting Computing

Goal: Rethink Everything: Turing & Von Neumann to now

Why IEEE? Pre-competitve, Inclusive, Worldwide

Circuits & Systems Society

Council on Electronic Design Automation

83 Q:Q: HowHow dodo wewe getget backback toto exponentialexponential performanceperformance scaling?scaling?

IEEEIEEE RebootingRebooting ComputingComputing InitiativeInitiative

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 84 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 85 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 86 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 87 Recurring Questions April 19, 1965 With unit cost falling as the number of components per circuit rises, by 1975 economics may dictate squeezing as many as 65,000 components on a single silicon chip

What could you do with 65,000 components?

Gordon Moore

February 26, 2015 With unit cost falling as the number of components per circuit rises, by 2015 economics may dictate squeezing as many as 6,500,000,000 components on a single silicon chip

What could you do with 6,500,000,000 components?

Paolo Gargini

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 88 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 89 22--WayWay WristWrist Video/Audio:Video/Audio: TheThe VisionVision inin 20112011

Looking at their faces Let’s launch a Name it is clear that they do Search on all the not like any of the Social Networks and names we have promote a contest! proposed !

Two Ways Video/Audio

- Introduced May 3, 2011

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 90 Figure MEMS Sensors trends for “Wearable” technologies – The MEMS TWG has adopted this application as a case study for More than Moore roadmapping.

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 91 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 92 InsideInside thethe AppleApple WatchWatch

[source] https://www.abiresearch.com/press/apple-watch-insides-pcb-details- revealed-for-the-f/ July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 93 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 94 July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 95 CConconcllususiionsons

 “Geometrical Scaling” led the IC Industry for 3 decades

ITRS 1.0

 Cooperative and distributed research and manufacturing methods highlighted by ITRS emerged as cost effective means of reducing costs since the mid-90s

 FCRP, NRI, Sematech, IMEC and Government organizations actively cooperated in advanced research

 “Equivalent Scaling” saved the Semiconductor Industry since the beginning of the previous decade

 Preliminary evaluation of post-CMOS candidates published in 2010

ITRS 2.0

 “3D Power Scaling” is the next phase of (accelerated) scaling

 Post CMOS devices and emerging architectures are being jointly evaluated->ITRS/RC

July, 2015 ITRS/RC P.Gargini 96