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Climate, Forest Cover and Water Resources Vulnerability in The Climate, Forest Cover, and Water Resources Vulnerability Wami/Ruvu Basin, Tanzania Wami River Basin, Tanzania|i Tanzania Integrated Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (iWASH) Program Climate, Forest Cover, and Water Resources Vulnerability Wami/Ruvu Basin, Tanzania Wami/Ruvu Basin, Tanzania |i Funding for this publication was provided by the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) as a component of the Tanzania Integrated Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (iWASH) Program. The views and opinions of the authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Agency for International Development, the United States or Florida International University. Copyright © Global Water for Sustainability Program – Florida International University This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. No use of the publication may be made for resale or for any commercial purposes whatsoever without the prior permission in writing from the Global Water for Sustainability Program – Florida International University. Any inquiries can be addressed to the same at the following address: Global Water for Sustainability Program Florida International University Biscayne Bay Campus 3000 NE 151 St. ACI-267 North Miami, FL 33181 USA Email: [email protected] Website: www.globalwaters.net For bibliographic purposes, this document should be cited as: GLOWS – FIU. 2014. Climate, Forest Cover and Water Resources Vulnerability, Wami/Ruvu Basin, Tanzania. 87 p. ISBN: 978-1-941993-03-3 Cover Photographs: Front Cover from left: Headwater catchments of various tributaries of the Wami and Ruvu rivers in the Eastern Arc Mountains having a mosaic of primary forest and cleared land; a stream in the Eastern Arc foothills and a lake in the floodplains of the Wami. Back cover from left: Locally-relevant environmental education in schools, high valley in the Eastern Arc Mountains,.livestock in the Ruvu Basin. ii| Climate, Forest Cover and Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment Table of Contents Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................... viii About the Vulnerability Report Series ....................................................................................................... viii Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1 Water Resources Vulnerability in the Wami/Ruvu River Basin ............................................................ 3 2 Climate of the Wami/Ruvu Basin, Tanzania ......................................................................................... 6 2.1 Climate change – impacts on water resources, livelihoods and public health ................................................... 6 2.2 Past and present climate in Tanzania and in the Wami/Ruvu Basin .................................................................. 7 2.2.1. Climate of Tanzania – the past century ................................................................................................................... 7 2.2.2. Climate of the Wami/Ruvu Basin – the past fifty years ..................................................................................... 11 2.3 Climate change projections in Tanzania and in the Wami/Ruvu Basin ........................................................... 21 2.3.1. Climate forecasting procedure - a note on uncertainty ....................................................................................... 21 2.3.2. Climate projections for Tanzania – a brief review ............................................................................................... 23 2.3.3. Climate projections for the Wami/Ruvu Basin .................................................................................................... 27 2.4 Final remarks: implications of climate change for the vulnerability of water resources ................................ 42 3 Forest Loss in the Wami/Ruvu Basin ................................................................................................... 44 3.1 Background: hydrologic effects of changing forest landscapes ......................................................................... 44 3.2 Forest cover change in the Wami/Ruvu Basin .................................................................................................... 46 3.3 Wetlands in the Wami/Ruvu Basin ........................................................................................................................ 49 3.4 Final remarks - the role of forests in buffering uncertainty in water supply .................................................... 50 4 Water Resources Vulnerabilities in the Wami/Ruvu Basin .................................................................. 52 4.1 Water users and uses in the Wami/Ruvu Basin ................................................................................................... 52 4.1.1. Water users in the basin – by sector....................................................................................................................... 52 4.1.2. Spatial perspective - water use by sub-catchment ................................................................................................ 55 4.2 Water resources vulnerability in the Wami/Ruvu Basin ..................................................................................... 56 4.2.1. Assessing water demand in relation to water availability .................................................................................... 56 4.2.2. Variability in water sources – increasing uncertainty ........................................................................................... 57 4.3 Final remarks - Exposure of water resources to vulnerability ............................................................................ 58 5 Water Resource Management in a Changing Environment in the Wami/Ruvu Basin ....................... 63 5.1 Focal areas of adaptation ......................................................................................................................................... 63 5.2 Final remarks – managing water resources vulnerabilities in the Wami/Ruvu Basin ..................................... 69 References .................................................................................................................................................... 71 Annex 1: Resources for running climate models ......................................................................................... 79 A: Climate Wizard ................................................................................................................................................................... 79 B: Climate Portal of the World Bank.................................................................................................................................... 79 C: Source Data Description and Citation ............................................................................................................................ 79 D: References for GCM section appendix .......................................................................................................................... 80 Wami/Ruvu Basin, Tanzania |iii List of Figures Figure 1-1: A comprehensive heuristic model of vulnerability assessment of water resources. .................................... 4 Figure 1-2: The Wami/Ruvu Basin. ........................................................................................................................................ 5 Figure 2-1: (Left) Sub-humid to arid zones around the moist regions of central Africa face high risk to climate change. (Right) Predicted decrease in per capita freshwater availability from 1990 to 2025. ....................................... 6 Figure 2-2: Average annual precipitation (1951 – 2002) in Tanzania ................................................................................ 8 Figure 2-3: Association between Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and rainfall in East Africa ............................................ 9 Figure 2-4: Rainfall anomaly averaged across Tanzania and monthly precipitation at Zanzibar (1901-1995) ............ 9 Figure 2-5: Annual mean temperature across Tanzania during 1950-2002. ................................................................... 10 Figure 2-6: Mean annual temperature change trend (°C/year) over 1951-2002 for Tanzania ..................................... 11 Figure 2-7: Rainfall distribution in the Wami/Ruvu Basin (1962-2011). ........................................................................ 13 Figure 2-8: Rainfall across the Wami River Basin (1901-2010). ....................................................................................... 14 Figure 2-9: Monthly rainfall across the Wami River Basin averaged from the period 1901-2010. ............................. 14 Figure 2-10: Time series of annual rainfall from 1902 – 2010 in the Wami/Ruvu Basin. ............................................ 15 Figure 2-11: Annual rainfall time series from 1901 to 2002 for Wami/Ruvu Basin and rainfall anomalies during the period 1961-1990. ...................................................................................................................................................................
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