August 13, 2013 Paul Gait (Senior Analyst) •
[email protected] • +44-207-170-0599 Rusne Didziulyte •
[email protected] • +44-207-170-0541 European Metals & Mining: US$10,000/t copper & the impact of geological exhaustion. Can anywhere replace Chile? 9 Aug 2013 TTM EPS P/E Closing Target Rel. Ticker Rating CUR Price Price Perf. 2012A 2013E 2014E 2012A 2013E 2014E Yield GLEN.LN O GBp 297.50 525.00 -29.0% 8.83 27.96 41.11 33.7 10.6 7.2 3.3% AAL.LN O GBp 1542.50 2025.00 -41.4% 140.12 137.86 173.23 11.0 11.2 8.9 3.6% BLT.LN O GBp 1963.50 2250.00 -18.3% 186.25 171.95 237.07 10.5 11.4 8.3 3.6% BBL O USD 61.74 68.70 -21.7% 5.86 5.41 7.45 10.5 11.4 8.3 3.6% BHP O USD 67.68 68.70 -23.5% 5.86 5.41 7.45 11.6 12.5 9.1 3.3% BHP.AU O AUD 36.81 34.93 9.7% 3.19 2.94 4.05 11.6 12.5 9.1 3.3% VALE3.BZ O BRL 34.75 46.50 -26.1% 2.38 5.10 5.70 14.6 6.8 6.1 6.6% VALE O USD 15.51 23.32 -39.6% 1.06 2.28 2.55 14.6 6.8 6.1 6.6% RIO.LN O GBp 3167.50 4125.00 -17.3% 319.94 339.01 466.84 9.9 9.3 6.8 3.4% RIO O USD 49.81 65.18 -22.1% 5.03 5.33 7.34 9.9 9.3 6.8 3.4% MSDLE15 1276.54 94.20 95.30 106.85 13.6 13.4 11.9 3.5% SPX 1691.42 103.12 109.85 121.99 16.4 15.4 13.9 2.1% MXAPJ 440.38 32.75 36.14 40.62 13.4 12.2 10.8 3.1% MXEF 951.37 81.68 89.98 100.67 11.6 10.6 9.5 2.8% O – Outperform, M – Market-Perform, U – Underperform, N – Not Rated Highlights "The total volume of workable mineral deposits is an insignificant fraction of the earth's crust, and each deposit represents some geological accident in the remote past, each deposit has its limits; if worked it must be exhausted.