Transport and urban growth in the first industrial revolution Preliminary draft, September 30 2020 Eduard J Alvarez-Palau1, Dan Bogart2, Oliver Dunn3, Max Satchell4, Leigh Shaw Taylor5 Abstract6 During the first industrial revolution the English economy underwent a spatial transformation to go along with its structural transformation in employment. It became highly urbanized and, apart from London, its urban center shifted to the northwest. This paper examines the role of transport in causing this spatial transformation. Transport changed greatly with infrastructure improvements and technological and organizational innovations. We focus on those occurring before the era of railways and steam ships, when wagons, canals, and sail ships were dominant. We construct a measure of market access for 458 towns in 1680 and 1830 using a new multi- modal transport model and then estimate the effects of lower trade costs through changes in market access. Our regression model controls for various town characteristics, including coal endowments. The results show that changes in market access had a large positive effect on changes in urban population. Through counterfactuals we estimate that England’s urban population would have been 11% lower if trade costs remained constant from 1680 to 1830. The results contribute to a new understanding of the industrial revolution and spatial economic growth more generally. Keywords: Urbanization, transport, market access, industrial revolution JEL Codes: N7, O1, R4 1 Senior Lecturer, Economics and Business, Universitat Oberta de Catalunya,
[email protected] 2 Professor, Department of Economics, UC Irvine,
[email protected]. 3 Research Associate in History, University of Cambridge,
[email protected] 4 Research Associate, Dept.