Credit Report UNIQA
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Erste Group Research Erste Group Research Credit Report | Corporate Bonds | Austria 11. June 2019 UNIQA Insurance Group Analyst: Peter Kaufmann, CFA Austria’s Second Largest Insurance Group [email protected] With a market share of 22%, UNIQA is the second largest insurance group Key financials in EUR mn 2016 2017 2018 in Austria behind Vienna Insurance Group. The group generates 70% of its Gross Prem. Written* 5,048 5,293 5,309 premium income in Austria. UNIQA is the clear market leader in health Net investment income 589 572 581 insurance in Austria, with a market share of 46%. The group generates Profit before taxes 226 265 295 around 30% of its premium income in CEE, where it has a presence in 15 Combined Ratio 98.1% 97.5% 96.8% Claims Ratio 65.7% 65.9% 65.4% markets. Its largest segment is property-casualty insurance (share of Cost Ratio 32.4% 31.6% 31.4% premiums written: 52%), followed by life (27%) and health insurance (21%). Solvency II Ratio 202% 250% 248% UNIQA's solvency capital ratio stood at 248% at the end of 2018 (most Source: UNIQA, Erste Group Research *incl. savings portion of premiums from unit- and recent available figure), which is very strong by European standards (see index-linked life insurance page 6). S&P most recently affirmed UNIQA's rating on 21 Dec. 2018 (see Key financials 1Q 2019 table on the left hand side). The outlook is stable. in EUR mn 1Q 2018 1Q 2019 Delta While premium income remained stable in 2018, pre-tax earnings rose Gross Prem. Written* 1,535 1,530 -0.4% Net investment income 140 101 -27.9% (+11.3% y/y). This reflected improved actuarial results and higher Profit before taxes 71 42 -40.5% investment income. The latter benefited strongly from the profit on the sale Combined Ratio 97.4% 96.3% -1.1%-pt Claims Ratio 66.3% 64.7% -1.6%-pt of a stake in Casinos Austria in the amount of EUR 47.4mn. Premium Cost Ratio 31.2% 31.6% +0.4%-pt income in the property/casualty (+5.1% y/y) and health insurance segments Source: UNIQA, Erste Group Research (+4.3% y/y) continued to grow. The combined ratio (CoR) declined by 0.7%- S&P-Ratings UNIQA Insurance Group AG points to 96.8% in 2018 vs. 2017: both the claims and the cost ratio Rating Type Rating Outlook decreased. Premium income fell only in the life insurance segment (-10.1% Financial Strength Rating A- stable y/y). The main driver of this was the single-premium business (-55.6% y/y). Issuer Credit Rating A- stable The reduction in this segment was deliberate and reflects an industry-wide Junior Subordinated BBB stable Source: UNIQA, Erste Group Research trend. Premiums written declined slightly in Q1 2019 (-0.4% y/y). Growth in Contents property/casualty (+1.4% y/y) and health insurance premiums (+3.1% y/y) Austria’s Second Largest Insurance Group .. 1 SWOT analysis ............................................ 5 partially offset the planned decrease (single premiums) in the life insurance Peer Group Comparison & Relative Value.... 6 business (-6.8% y/y). Administrative expenses increased by 8.4% y/y (inter Appendix: Cons. Income Statement & alia due to an ongoing IT investment program). The investment result Balance Sheet .............................................. 7 declined by 28% year-on-year due to the absence of the one-off gain recognized in Q1 2018 (gain from the sale of Casinos Austria stake). This affected pre-tax earnings (EUR 42.3mn; -40.5%, y/y). Thanks to a reduction Major Markets & Credit Research Gudrun Egger, CEFA (Head) in the claims ratio, the CoR declined to 96.3% (-1.1%-points). UNIQA expects premium income to grow slightly in FY 2019. An increase of Corporate Bonds Peter Kaufmann, CFA approx. 2% is expected in the property/casualty segment. Health insurance Bernadett Povazsai-Römhild, CEFA premiums are expected to grow by 3% in line with the trend. Premium Elena Statelov, CIIA income in the life insurance segment is expected to decline due to weak demand in Austria. The CoR should improve further. It is planned to lower it Prices: 11.06.2019, 14:20 Report completed: 11.06.2019, 14:30 to 95% by 2020. At the end of 2018 it was still above the median of the Report published: 11.06.2019, 14:42 European peer group. The investment result is expected to decrease compared to 2018. Adjusted for the one-off gain from the sale of the Editor: Gerald Walek, CFA Casinos Austria stake, pre-tax earnings are expected to grow in 2019. UNIQA is gradually raising its dividend in line with its progressive dividend policy (payout ratio 2018: 66.9%). Note: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. We consider the group's subordinated bonds to be undervalued relative to comparable bonds. Major Markets & Credit Research Page 1 For the exclusive use of Erste Group Client (Erste Group) Erste Group Research Credit Report | Corporate Bonds | Austria 11. June 2019 The health insurance business is very important for UNIQA. In 2018 premiums earned (retained) in the segment were almost as high as in the life insurance business. 93% of the group's health insurance premiums are written in Austria. Growth in Austria's health insurance market has been fairly strong for several years (2018 premium volume: +4.3% y/y): growth of 3.5% is expected in 2019. Austria's property/casualty insurance market is also growing steadily (2018: +3.7% y/y). By contrast, the life insurance market has experienced declines for several years (2018: -3.5% y/y). These trends seem set to continue. Premium volume and EBT are growing since 2017 Property/casualty the largest segment Premiums written*, pre-tax earnings, EUR mn Retained premiums earned by segment, EUR mn 7,000 450 397.8 6,064 400 6,000 1,096.3 1,094.0 5,211 5,293 5,309 377.9 5,048 350 5,000 294.6 300 264.6 1,038.9 1,080.3 4,000 225.5 250 3,000 200 150 2,000 2,495.1 2,584.1 1,211 1,231 100 1,000 71.1 50 42.3 0 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 2017 2018 Gross Prem. Written Profit before taxes P/C Health Life Source: UNIQA, Erste Group Research Source: UNIQA, Erste Group Research * incl. premiums of the savings portion from unit-linked and index- linked life insurance Insurance markets in the CEE region benefited from continued strong economic conditions in 2018. Especially the household, homeowners' and car insurance segments developed positively in the region. The latter segment is benefiting from an increase in registrations and a growing vehicle fleet. The Romanian market remains difficult, mainly due to fierce price competition in motor vehicle third party liability insurance. The Polish life insurance market is weak as well: single-premium policies are declining sharply. Overall, management expects that the insurance industry will continue to exhibit stronger momentum in the CEE region than in Austria and Western Europe in 2019. Health insurance segment in Austria provides large In the CEE region the health insurance segment earnings contribution remains of subordinate importance so far UNIQA AT: net earnings, EUR mn UNIQA International: net earnings, EUR mn 37.5 116.8 112.8 110.2 107.0 27.4 17.5 15.5 35.6 12.0 0.2 Life P/C -0.1 Health P/C Health Life 2017 2018 2017 2018 Source: UNIQA, Erste Group Research Source: UNIQA, Erste Group Research Major Markets & Credit Research Page 2 For the exclusive use of Erste Group Client (Erste Group) Erste Group Research Credit Report | Corporate Bonds | Austria 11. June 2019 Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary are UNIQA's largest markets in the CEE region in terms of premium volume. The Czech Republic, Russia and Poland provided the largest contributions to pre-tax earnings in 2018. The low insurance density in the CEE region suggests strong long-term growth potential. Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary the most Low insurance density in CEE region provides long important CEE markets term growth potential 2018 premiums, EBT in EUR mn; UNIQA International Insurance premiums per capita in USD, 2017 segment by region (market position in brackets) 309 274 2,687 213 2,217 138 1,651 99 93 84 78 71 15 13 49 47 38 11 20.1 16.5 32 0.4 14.6 4.6 5.1 -0.5 3.2 6.1 1.7 1.9 -0.3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.8 609 444 421 348 333 175 125 123 38 Serbia Serbia (6) Croatia (7) Croatia Albania Albania (1) Kosovo (1) Ukraine (1)Ukraine Russia (10)Russia Poland (11) Poland Bulgaria (9) Hungary (8)Hungary (4)Slovakia Romania (8) Montenegro Montenegro (3) Czech Rep. Czech Rep. (5) Western Europe Western Serbia Austria Poland Croatia North Macedonia(5)North Ukraine Bulgaria Slovakia Hungary Romania Germany Europe Ø Europe Bosnia-Herzegowina Bosnia-Herzegowina (4) Gross Prem. Written by country/region (UNIQA International) EBT by country/region (UNIQA International) Czech Republic Source: UNIQA, Erste Group Research Source: UNIQA, Erste Group Research In UNIQA's largest CEE markets Poland (96.4%), Czech Republic (92.8%) and Hungary (81.3%), the group's combined ratio stands at quite good levels. In 2018 it was particularly low in Hungary at 81.3%. In Austria the combined ratio was also reported at a very strong 91.6% in 2018. Combined ratio to decrease to 95% until 2020 Important markets CZ & HU exhibit strong CoR Combined ratio of the group since 2014 Combined ratio vs.