UNIQA Insurance Group AG Solvency Capital and Embedded Value 2019
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UNIQA Insurance Group AG Solvency Capital and Embedded Value 2020 8 April 2021 Kurt Svoboda, CFRO EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Solvency Capital Embedded Value New Business Life, Health & Solvency Unrestricted Value Pension Fund Capital Ratio1 Tier 1 Capital MCEV2 EUR 170% 74% -5.3% 111m Impact ex-AXA Free Surplus Standard & 3 New Business on Solvency Generation Poor’s rating Margin Capital Ratio EUR A- -26% 126m 3.6% ▪ Significant impacts on MCEV and NBV values as a result of ▪ Decrease of capital position driven by ex-AXA acquisition adding ex-AXA entities and interest rate environment in 2020 ▪ Inclusion of the ex-AXA entities leads to the following uplifts as at 2020 Q4: MCEV +862m, NBV +46m ▪ Solvency position stays in internal ambition zone of minimum 170% ▪ Downward pressure on MCEV and NBV from a decline in interest rates in 2020 and COVID-19 environment ▪ Quality of capital in own funds remains strong ▪ Higher Free Surplus Generation mainly due to acquired ex- AXA business 1 Audit on Solvency & Financial Condition Report (SFCR) ongoing 2 As % of adjusted opening Life, Health & Pension Fund MCEV. The purchased ex-AXA entities are included in the adjusted opening MCEV 2 3 Annualized ex-AXA contribution for 2020 CONTENT I. Group Solvency Capital ▪ Risk Strategy ▪ Results ▪ Sensitivities and other analysis II. Market Consistent Embedded Value ▪ Results ▪ Sensitivities and other analysis III. Appendix ▪ SCR Methodology ▪ MCEV Methodology ▪ Assumptions ▪ Glossary & Disclaimer 3 I. GROUP CAPITAL REQUIREMENT Risk Strategy Key Elements of our Risk Ambition Strategy 170% ▪ Ambition is to have SCR Ratio above 170% Action ▪ We focus on underwriting risks and take Take measures to market/credit risks only to the extent reduce risk necessary 135% ▪ Target market risk share of total SCR is below 65% Recovery ▪ The target rating for UNIQA Group is Immediately increase category “A” by Standard & Poor’s solvency 100% Regulatory plan 4 I. GROUP CAPITAL REQUIREMENT SII capital ratio SII capital position1 EUR mn By Risk Module By Segment By Region2 221% 170% Health underwriting SEM EEM Non-Life Life CEE Non-Life underwriting 4% 3% 9% 4.865 16% WEM 2% 4.471 31% 5% 45% 2.628 Life underwriting 2.203 18% 57% 5% 24% 81% Counterparty default Market 2019 2020 Health SLT AT Own Funds Capital Requirement SCR ratio development Features of UNIQA’s capital position 250% 248% ▪ Including risk charge on sovereign bonds 221% ▪ Including dynamic volatility adjustment 194% 196% ▪ Including downside-shocks on negative interest rates 202% ▪ No use of transitionals ▪ No use of matching adjustment 155% 153% 170% without ex-AXA 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 5 1 Audit on Solvency & Financial Condition Report (SFCR) ongoing 2 Region WEM includes internal risk transfer to UNIQA Re and business in Liechtenstein I. GROUP CAPITAL REQUIREMENT Details on SII Capital Requirement SCR development by risk module EUR mn SCR increases by 425 EUR mn 174 154 -1.128 621 ▪ Increase of market risk driven by higher spread- and concentration risk (details slide 9) 65 706 -331 201 ▪ Life underwriting risk grows mainly in the lapse risk as a result of declined interest rates 2.692 2.628 2.165 ▪ Non-Life underwriting risk increases due to merge with ex-AXA portfolio and portfolio development Market Life uw. Non- Health Counterparty Diversi- Basic Tax Adj. OpRisk Other SCR ▪ The higher diversification is a consequence of a risk Life uw. uw. default fication SCR Financial Sector more balanced risk profile and partly mitigates the increase in risk modules Change vs. last year 425 323 ▪ Companies of other financial sectors (mostly 231 85 203 pension business) included via corresponding 36 170 110 capital requirements 238 21 110 43 49 16 65 222 194 20 89 59 102 177 Ex-AXA UNIQA -279 6 I. GROUP CAPITAL REQUIREMENT Own Funds variation analysis Own funds development ▪ Operating earnings driven by new business and in-force EUR mn business coming from Life & Health as well as impact of UNIQA 3.0 strategy 415 ▪ The reduction coming from market variance is the result of a negative development of interest rates in 2020 4.865 ▪ Impact of ex-AXA acquisition considered as one-off impact 200 in the first column only 46 4.529 Tier 3 4.471 1% -287 -710 -58 Tier 2 25% Tier 1 74% 1 2 2019 Ex-AXA New Operating Market impact Other 2020 prior Capital flows 2020 acquisition subordinated SII earnings capital flows debt 7 1 Includes external debt interest expenses 2 Residual category including model changes, deferred tax positions and income tax I. GROUP CAPITAL REQUIREMENT IFRS reconciliation IFRS reconciliation (EUR mn) 2019 2020 Financial leverage EUR mn IFRS total equity 3.420 3.475 - Goodwill -291 -353 26% 37% - Intangible assets and VBI -226 -630 - Deferred acquisition costs (DAC) -1.124 -1.116 + Revaluation (after deferred taxes) 2.258 2.050 1.218 2.018 Revaluation of assets 1.106 1.192 Revaluation of technical provisions 1.153 858 + Subordinated liabilities 930 1.134 IFRS Equity - Foreseeable dividends -58 -58 3.420 3.475 Total debt - Capping of minority interests -45 -31 Economic Own Funds to cover SCR 4.865 4.471 ▪ Goodwill, value of business in force, deferred acquisition costs and intangible assets are valued at zero according to Solvency II ▪ Other revalued assets include property (appraisal value instead of amortized cost), 2019 2020 participations (market value instead of IFRS book value) and loans ▪ Gross technical provisions and the reinsurer’s share of the technical provisions are ▪ Total debt includes subordinated bonds with nominal value, leases liabilities revalued to discounted best estimate reserves and pension deficits ▪ Subordinated liabilities are subject to eligibility restrictions, depending on their quality ▪ Financial leverage calculated as Total debt / (IFRS Equity + Total debt) (“Tiering”). All of UNIQA‘s subordinated liabilities are included in Eligible Own Funds ▪ Foreseeable dividends have to be subtracted from Eligible Own Funds according to Solvency II 8 I. GROUP CAPITAL REQUIREMENT Market Risk Profile SCR market risk profile EUR mn 28 20 5 27 8 12 ▪ Decrease of interest rate risk in low interest rate environment due to asset-liability management activities 426 271 -1.393 ▪ Increase both in equity risk as well as property risk 978 due to higher exposure 182 ▪ Spread risk increases as a consequence of increase in 719 asset duration and higher market values (lower interest 2.165 rates and additional ex-AXA portfolio) 983 ▪ Currency risk is almost unchanged Interest rate Equity risk Property risk Spread risk Currency risk Conc. risk Diversific. Market total risk ▪ Concentration risk is linked to spread risk in PIM with a conservative treatment of those bonds where no single Change vs. last year treatment is feasible 196 116 110 58 53 15 -85 -244 9 XX Risk profile, percent I. GROUP CAPITAL REQUIREMENT Underwriting Risk Profiles Life underwriting risk Health underwriting risk Non-life underwriting risk 2% Disability risk 4% 4% 9% Other 9% 5% Expense risk 11% 10% CAT risk 4% 5% Transport 5% 3% Mortality risk 8% 4% 7% Accident 4% Longevity risk 20% Mortality risk 24% 10% Motor Hull 14% Expense risk 26% 20% 24% Third-Party Liab. 22% 29% Disability risk 29% Motor TPL 13% 12% Lapse risk 56% 59% 47% Lapse risk 36% Property 33% 31%32% 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 ▪ Biometric risks still have minor relevance ▪ Lapse risk is the most prominent risk. Through ▪ AXA business not yet included in the partial internal model, expected for 12/2021 ▪ Lapse risk remains a key issue for life profitable business, a “mass” scenario shows a underwriting risk. Lapse “decrease” risk is still very adverse effect ▪ “Other” includes Technic, Legal expenses & the relevant scenario Miscellaneous 10 I. GROUP CAPITAL REQUIREMENT Sensitivities Impact of sensitivities on SII capital postion Percent Delta to base value, pp Base value 170 ▪ Interest rate sensitivities: stress applied to liquid part of the curve (negative and non-negative), extrapolation to UFR Interest rates +50 bps 193 +23 ▪ Equity sensitivity: a general decrease of 25% in the value Interest rates -50 bps 146 -24 of all equities Equity -25% 165 -5 ▪ Currency sensitivities: a rise/fall of exchange rates by 10% uniformly across all currencies FX +10% 174 +4 ▪ Credit spread sensitivity: a widening of credit spreads by FX -10% 165 -5 50bps separated for corporate and government bonds Credit spread corp. +50 bps 164 -6 ▪ Nat-Cat sensitivity: assumed earthquake with epicentre in Austria and return period of 250 years Credit spread gov. +50 bps 154 -16 ▪ UFR sensitivity: Ultimate Forward Rate reduced by 50bps Earthquake 169 -1 ▪ No VA sensitivity: yield curve without volatility adjustment UFR -50 bps 152 -18 No VA 130 -40 11 CONTENT III. Group Solvency Capital ▪ Risk Strategy ▪ Results ▪ Sensitivities and other analysis II. Market Consistent Embedded Value ▪ Results ▪ Sensitivities and other analysis III. Appendix ▪ SCR Methodology ▪ MCEV Methodology ▪ Assumptions ▪ Glossary & Disclaimer 12 II. MARKET CONSISTENT EMBEDDED VALUE Results ▪ Total Life, Health & Pension Fund Embedded Value Life, Health & Pension Fund Embedded Value 2020 decreased by -5.3% (net of dividends and foreign In EUR mn exchange effects) to EUR 3,419mn 2 Austria CEE Total ▪ Embedded Value increases by EUR 876mn to EUR 3,611mn as at 2019 Q4 from adding the -9.1%1 +2.4%1 -5.3%1 ex-AXA entities 2,376 3,419 817 1,209 ▪ In Austria and CEE, the decline in the VIF is driven by 663 862 the lower interest rate environment in 2020 1,559 663 ▪ Lower ANAV in Austria due to Life P&L result