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The World Economy's Surprising Rise Is the pope Catholic? Why Modi’s win matters The remaking of Microsoft A message from outer space MARCH 18TH–24TH 2017 On the up The world economy’s surprising rise Contents The Economist March 18th 2017 3 6 The world this week United States 29 Welfare Leaders American exceptionalism 9 The world economy 30 Counter-terrorism On the rise Loosening the rules 10 Modi triumphs 31 Prison labour Uttar hegemony A $1bn industry 10 Dutch elections 32 Chuck’s gun shop Domino theory Anything you want 11 Brexit and Scotland 32 Missing servicemen Scoxit Scots should read Leave one union, lose Raiders of the lost barks Brexit as an argument for another 34 Lexington remaining in Britain, not 12 Aid to fragile states Health care: a presidential deal breaker leaving it: leader, page 11. On the cover The Central African Scotland’s first minister A synchronised upturn in the conundrum demands a new referendum, world economy is under way. The Americas page 57 Thank stimulus, not the Letters 35 Mexico populists: leader, page 9. 14 On Brexit, the news, The rise of a populist What lies behind the Chile, Singapore, 36 Bello improvement, pages 18-20. diamonds Mauricio Macri’s gradualism As Janet Yellen’s Fed raises rates, political uncertainty 38 Guatemala hangs over the central bank, Briefing Deaths foretold page 69 18 The world economy From deprivation to Middle East and Africa daffodils 39 Central African Republic The Economist online Another CAR crash Daily analysis and opinion to Asia 40 South Sudan supplement the print edition, plus Death spiral Dutch elections Geert audio and video, and a daily chart 21 South Korea Economist.com Park impeached 40 Libya’s war Wilders’s poor showing does Coastal retreats not necessarily mean that E-mail: newsletters and 22 Gambling in Australia 41 South Africa and Russia Marine Le Pen will lose: leader, mobile edition The biggest losers Say my name page 10. The Netherlands Economist.com/email 23 Indian state elections breathes a sigh of relief. Now 42 Saudi Arabia Print edition: available online by A lotus in full flower comes the hard part, page 51. Farewell, my guardian 7pm London time each Thursday 24 Property rights in India Identity politics is not the Economist.com/print An obsession with preserve of the far right, as Audio edition: available online expropriation Europe the Dutch election shows: to download each Friday 24 Post-war Sri Lanka 51 Dutch elections Charlemagne, page 56 Economist.com/audioedition Still riven The centre holds 25 Sri Lanka’s disappeared 52 The EU-Turkey deal No closure Out of sight 26 Banyan 53 Poland and Brussels A war on street food Pyromaniac politics Volume 422 Number 9032 54 Ireland’s lame duck China Jaded isle Published since September 1843 to take part in "a severe contest between 27 China and South Korea 56 Charlemagne intelligence, which presses forward, and Nationalism unleashed A new identity politics an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing our progress." 28 Legal reform Editorial offices in London and also: Striving for a civil code Britain Atlanta, Beijing, Berlin, Brussels, Cairo, Chicago, Lima, Mexico City, Moscow, Mumbai, Nairobi, 28 Football 57 Scottish independence Helping fragile states New Delhi, New York, Paris, San Francisco, New rules, new dodges Sturgeon the brave Providing foreign aid to São Paulo, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Tokyo, chaotic countries is both Washington DC 58 Article 50 Scotched necessary and hazardous. It can be done better: leader, page 12. The World Bank used to shun war zones. Now it is trying to help before the shooting stops, page 39 1 Contents continues overleaf 4 Contents The Economist March 18th 2017 International Science and technology 59 The pope’s travails 79 Yellow fever in Brazil Is he Catholic? Monkey business 60 The Vatican bank 80 Optics Man of God v Mammon The bug-eyed view 81 Astronomy Business Flashes of inspiration 61 Microsoft 82 Subterranean maps Head in the cloud DNA goes underground 62 Intel buys Mobileye 82 Animal behaviour Microsoft under Nadella The Aliens A batch of strange The road ahead Spider bites world’s biggest software firm signals from the sky might, has overhauled its culture. But 63 Disneyland Paris just possibly, be evidence of getting cloud computing right Taking the Mickey? Books and arts extra-terrestrial life, page 81 is hard, page 61 64 Elon Musk and batteries 83 Elizabeth Bishop Megawatts and tweets The art of losing Subscription service 66 The pharma business 84 Hit makers For our full range of subscription offers, A better pill from China Recipes for success including digital only or print and digital combined visit 66 The cannabis industry 84 Mohsin Hamid’s fiction Economist.com/offers Weed killer? Black door You can subscribe or renew your subscription by mail, telephone or fax at the details below: 67 The Olympics 85 The creative spark Telephone: +65 6534 5166 Gamesmanship Inside your head Facsimile: +65 6534 5066 Web: Economist.com/offers 68 Schumpeter 85 Syrian music E-mail: [email protected] Citigroup’s agonies High notes Post: The Economist 86 Johnson Subscription Centre, Tanjong Pagar Post Office Finance and economics Subversive facts PO Box 671 Singapore 910817 69 The Federal Reserve The pope Francis is facing Subscription for 1 year (51 issues)Print only down opposition from Up, up and away 88 Economic and financial Australia A$465 indicators China CNY 2,300 traditionalists and Vatican 70 The Fed and banks Hong Kong & Macau HK$2,300 bureaucrats. But on clerical The public’s interest Statistics on 42 economies, India 10,000 plus a closer look at Japan Yen 44,300 sex-abuse, he seems weak, 72 African wealth funds Korea KRW 375,000 page 59 employment Malaysia RM 780 Buried treasure New Zealand NZ$530 Singapore & Brunei S$425 72 Trade deals Taiwan NT$9,000 KORUS of disapproval Obituary Thailand US$300 Other countries Contact us as above 74 Buttonwood 90 Gustav Metzger Building a beta mousetrap Art as weapon 75 Oil prices Principal commercial offices: Full tank 25 St James’s Street, London sw1a 1hg Tel: +44 20 7830 7000 75 Iceland’s capital controls Rue de l’Athénée 32 Hope springs eternal 1206 Geneva, Switzerland 76 Free exchange Tel: +4122 566 2470 In praise of immigration 750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10017 Tel: +1212 5410500 1301Cityplaza Four, Citigroup A decade of agony 12 Taikoo Wan Road, Taikoo Shing, Hong Kong is almost over. But the bank Tel: +852 2585 3888 needs a bolder plan for what Other commercial offices: happens next: Schumpeter, Chicago, Dubai, Frankfurt, Los Angeles, page 68 Paris, San Francisco and Singapore PEFC certified This copy of The Economist is printed on paper sourced from sustainably managed forests, recycled and controlled sources certified by PEFC PEFC/01-31-162 www.pefc.org © 2017 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Published every week, except for a year-end double issue, by The Economist Newspaper Limited. The Economist is a registered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Publisher: The Economist. Printed by Times Printers (in Singapore). M.C.I. (P) No.030/09/2016 PPS 677/11/2012(022861) 6 The world this week The Economist March 18th 2017 News reports say the list in- ing five-months ofdeadlock firmed that the two countries Politics cludes at least five ministers in since an election that was won were discussing a possible the federal government. by the Islamist Party for Justice meeting between presidents Xi and Development (PJD) but Jinping and Donald Trump. Colombia’s production of with no majority ofseats. coca, the raw material for cocaine, has reached record If at first you don’t succeed levels, according to a report by A federal judge in Hawaii the White House. The increase overturned the Trump admin- is in part a consequence of a istration’s revised travel ban peace agreement between on citizens from six mainly Colombia’s government and Muslim countries. The sticking the FARC guerrilla group. point again was that any “rea- Farmers who grow the crop are sonable” person would in- to receive incentives to stop. terpret the ban as being based on religion. The government A general election in the Neth- Pirates ahoy! may turn afresh to the appeals erlands saw MarkRutte re- Hijackers seized an oil tanker court to get its ban reinstated. The Bharatiya Janata Party of turned to office as prime min- offthe coast ofSomalia. An prime minister Narendra Modi ister. His centre-right party earlier spate ofsnatching ships The Congressional Budget routed the opposition in an handily defeated an insurgent ended in 2012 after the world’s Office provided its assessment election in the most populous campaign from the anti-im- big naval powers deployed ofa Republican bill to replace state in India, Uttar Pradesh, migration party led by Geert regular patrols to the waters Obamacare, which it said winning 312 ofthe state assem- Wilders. Mr Rutte said the around the Horn ofAfrica. would increase the number of bly’s 403 seats. Dutch had rejected the “bad those without health insur- sort ofpopulism”. A few days ance by 24m and reduce the Time Lords before the election the Dutch deficit by $337bn. House Re- In Britain, Theresa May’s government barred Turkey’s publicans say their plan will government succeeded in foreign minister from speaking reduce costs and premiums for passing legislation to trigger at a rally ofTurkish expats in the vast majority ofpeople.
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