Interim Report IR-02-049 Population-Development
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International Institute for Tel: +43 2236 807 342 Applied Systems Analysis Fax: +43 2236 71313 Schlossplatz 1 E-mail: [email protected] A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria Web: www.iiasa.ac.at Interim Report IR-02-049 Population-Development-Environment in Mozambique Background Readings Edited by Annababette Wils ([email protected]) Approved by Wolfgang Lutz Leader, Population Project July 4, 2002 Interim Reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. Contents Foreword iii Acknowledgments iv About the Contributors v List of Acronyms and Technical Notes viii Introduction 1 Annababette Wils Population Size, Distribution, and Mortality in Mozambique, 1960-1997 5 Manuel da Costa Gaspar Future Scenarios for Population Growth in Mozambique, 1997-2020 35 Manuel da Costa Gaspar Young Entrants Stay in School Longer: Example from Mozambique 45 Annababette Wils and Manuel da Costa Gaspar Skilled Labor in Mozambique, 1960-2020 69 Maimuna A. Ibraimo Agriculture and HIV/AIDS in Mozambique: A Discussion 91 Isolde Prommer The Mozambique Water Model 117 Molly E. Hellmuth, David N. Yates, and Kenneth M. Strzepek ii Foreword After decades of war, Mozambique emerged as one of the poorest countries in the world. The countryside was riddled with mines and saddled with debt, high illiteracy and low life expectancy. It caught the attention of the world in 1992 when the two belligerent sides signed a lasting peace agreement. It has continued to hold the attention because of its remarkable recovery. Although growth declined in the first years of the new millennium, partly due to severe flooding, it remains positive nonetheless. To some, Mozambique is an example of a country locked in poverty; to others, it is a sign of hope. It caught the attention of a group of researchers at IIASA, dedicated to the scientific analysis and better understanding of the relationship between population change and environmental factors, as an example of a country where much can be learned about these relationships. The Mozambique study is one of three African country studies, including Botswana and Namibia, and is the sixth in a series of such studies undertaken at IIASA (earlier studies include Mauritius, Cape Verde, and the Yucatan peninsula). Many governments, organized as they are in separate ministries, try to tackle the problem of development in a compartmentalized way. And indeed, there is strength in this specialization. The real world, however, is not separated into distinct boxes; population, development, and the environment are interwoven. These relationships become particularly important in the long-term. Therefore, it is imperative, when looking at a long planning horizon, to regard the system as a whole. That is what the population-development- environment studies at IIASA undertake. IIASA was most fortunate to find excellent and dedicated colleagues in Mozambique, who work in the same, integrated manner. They actively participated in the formulation of the study’s research questions, design of the simulation model and the future scenarios. The Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE) served as IIASA’s main partner and local coordinator. The interaction produced valuable insights for Mozambican scientists and policy makers. Each paper in this report is a valuable contribution to the field, and together, they are an interesting compilation on socio-demographic dynamics, development and natural resource use in Mozambique, and constitute background research for a forthcoming scientific book entitled AIDS, Education, and Sustainable Development: The Story from Mozambique by Annababette Wils and Manuel da Costa Gaspar. Wolfgang Lutz Leader, IIASA Population Project July 2002 iii Acknowledgments This publication is part of the project “Evaluating Alternative Paths for Sustainable Development in Botswana, Namibia, and Mozambique,” which was conducted at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in collaboration with the Instituto Nacional de Estatística (Annababette Wils and Manuel da Costa Gaspar, country coordinators). The project was funded by the European Commission, DG VIII – Directorate- General for Development (Contract No. B7-6200/96-18/VIII-ENV). The research team from Mozambique consisted of Manuel da Costa Gaspar, Maimuna Ibraimo, and Emídio Sebastião. Members of the IIASA team were Vania Ceccato, Molly Hellmuth, Wolfgang Lutz (Project Leader), Isolde Prommer, Kuberin Packirisamy, Warren Sanderson, Ken Strzepek, Annababette Wils, and David Yates. Institutions in Mozambique which contributed data or information to the project include the Ministry of Planning and Finance, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, the Ministry for Environmental Action Coordination, and the Ministry of Water Resources. This project could not have been done without the help of many persons in Mozambique, who generously shared their information and data with us. In particular, we would like to acknowledge the help of João Loureiro at the Instituto Nacional de Estatística, Avertino Barreto and António Noya from the Ministry of Health, Virgílio Juvane and Ilídio Buduia from the Ministry of Education, Victória da Conceição Ginja from the Ministry of Planning and Finance. We would also like to thank Mafaldo Duarte at the Ministry of Education and Tomás Bernardo at the Instituto Nacional de Estatística, as well as the many technicians, who provided us with special tabulations and reports. iv About the Contributors (in alphabetical order) Mr. Manuel da Costa Gaspar Instituto Nacional de Estatística Maputo, Mozambique E-mail: [email protected] Mr. Gaspar is Vice President of the National Institute of Statistics (INE) of Mozambique and country coordinator of the Mozambique PDE Project conducted by IIASA and INE. He received his Master’s degree in demography in 1989 from the Federal University of Minas Gerais, Brazil. His research interests are fertility, population projections, and the socioeconomic impacts of HIV/AIDS. Ms. Molly E. Hellmuth International Secretariat Dialogue on Water and Climate Wageningen, the Netherlands E-mail: [email protected] Dr. Hellmuth worked with the Population Project at IIASA from July 1997 to December 2001. She developed a methodology to model the seasonal fluctuation of water supply and demand in southern Africa, due to increasing population, development and climate change and variability. Ms. Hellmuth received her Bachelor’s degree in hydrology in 1995 from the University of Minnesota, her Master’s degree in water resources engineering and management from the University of Colorado, and her PhD in April 2002. She is currently working as an international water resource management specialist at the International Secretariat Dialogue on Water and Climate in Wageningen, the Netherlands. Ms. Hellmuth’s primary fields of interest are water modeling, climate change impact assessments, and efficient and sustainable water management strategies. Ms. Maimuna A. Ibraimo Gabinete de Estudos Ministério do Plano e Finanças Maputo, Mozambique E-mail: [email protected] Ms. Ibraimo received her Master’s degree in economics from the University of Manchester, U.K. She is currently an economist at the Department of Research of the Ministry of Planning and Finance (MPF) in Maputo. She is the author of numerous reports on extensive topics related to development in Mozambique such as population, education, and macro-economic policies. v Ms. Isolde Prommer Population Project IIASA Laxenburg, Austria E-mail: [email protected] Ms. Prommer graduated from the Department of Landscape Planning and Bioengineering at the University of Agricultural Sciences in Vienna in 1996, and is currently working on her PhD thesis, “The impacts of AIDS on agricultural production and food security in communal areas of northern Namibia.” She is also a research assistant in the Population Project at IIASA. She has professional experience in environmental impact assessment, in urban, regional and community planning, as well as in international planning competition. Other research interests include population and environment, urbanization, and gender issues in developing countries. Mr. Kenneth M. Strzepek Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado, USA E-mail: [email protected] Dr. Strzepek is Professor of civil, environmental and architectural engineering at the University of Colorado as well as a research affiliate in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He received a B.Sc in civil engineering in 1975, a M.Sc. in water resources and environmental engineering in 1977, and a Ph.D. in water resource systems in 1979, all from MIT. He worked at IIASA from 1980 to 1982 as a research scholar in the Water Resources and Food and Agriculture Programs, and as a water resource economist and deputy leader of the Water Resources Project from 1993 to 1994. Dr. Strzepek is a noted expert on planning tools for integrated river basin management, the application of advanced computer techniques for water and environmental management, the use of computer-based quantitative methods in public policy and decision making. He is a consultant and advisor to industry, water management organizations, consulting