Quantitative & Strategy d Cam Hui, CFA
[email protected] DOES A VOLATILITY COLLAPSE = MARKET COLLAPSE? April 22, 2019 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In the past week, there has been a lot of hand wringing about the collapse in volatility across Worried About The all asset classes. Equity investors know that the VIX Index has fallen to a 12-handle, and Collapse In Volatility? ............................ 2 past episodes of low VIX readings have resolved themselves with market corrections. Some Volatility Can Be Ignored ............... 5 The MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, has also fallen to historic lows. Which Way The Greenback? .................. 8 Low volatility has also migrated to the foreign exchange (FX) market. Macro And Investment Implications ....... 12 We find that low equity and credit market volatility have not been actionable sell signals, but low FX volatility is a bit more worrisome. In the past, extremely low FX volatility has Timing The USD Rally ........................... 13 been followed by a large move in the USD, though the direction is unclear. Investors need to understand the potential of the move, work through the implications, and prepare accordingly. The market may be setting up for a major currency market move either later this year or early next year. Investors should be aware of such a development and be prepared for a return of market volatility. At this time, too many unknown variables exist to reliably forecast the direction of stock prices, but history shows that equity returns have not been significantly correlated with the USD. Nevertheless, a mean reversion in FX volatility may be the most important driver of asset returns over the next 12–24 months.