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Draft Town of Saugus Hazard Mitigation Plan 2021 Update

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Draft Town of Saugus Hazard Mitigation Plan 2021 Update DRAFT TOWN OF SAUGUS HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN 2021 UPDATE Rumney Marsh - Image Source: Kevin Davis DRAFT June 28, 2021 [This page intentionally left blank] DRAFT SAUGUS HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN 2021 UPDATE Page ii of 148 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS & CREDITS This plan was prepared for the Town of Saugus by the Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC) under the guidance of the Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs (EEA) and the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency (MEMA). The plan was funded by Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness (MVP) planning grant from EEA. MAPC Officers President, Erin Wortman, Town of Stoneham Vice President, Adam Chapdelaine, Town of Arlington Secretary, Sandra Hackman, Town of Bedford Treasurer, Sam Seidel, Gubernatorial Executive Director, Marc Draisen, MAPC Credits Project Manager: Martin Pillsbury Lead Project Planner: Courtney Lewis Mapping/GIS Services: Caitlin Spence Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency Director: Samantha Phillips Department of Conservation and Recreation Commissioner: Jim Montgomery Saugus Hazard Mitigation and Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness Planning Core Team Scott Crabtree Town Manager Alexander Mello Planning and Development Department, Project Manager Jeanette Meredith Planning and Development Department Ronald Giorgetti Police Department Kevin Murphy Police Department Fred Varone Inspectional Services Frank McKinnon Conservation Commission Brendan O’Regan Department of Public Works Debbie Nickolas Building Department Todd Baldwin Facilities Engineer Michael Newbury Fire Department Paul Rupp Town Consultant DRAFT SAUGUS HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN 2021 UPDATE Page iii of 148 TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................... 1 SECTION 2: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................... 5 SECTION 3: PLANNING PROCESS & PUBLIC PARTICIPATION .............................. 10 SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT ......................................................................... 16 SECTION 5: HAZARD MITIGATION GOALS ......................................................... 81 SECTION 6: EXISTING MITIGATION MEASURES ................................................. 82 SECTION 7: MITIGATION MEASURES FROM PREVIOUS PLAN ............................ 92 SECTION 8: HAZARD MITIGATION STRATEGY .................................................... 96 SECTION 9: PLAN ADOPTION & MAINTENANCE .............................................. 111 SECTION 10: LIST OF REFERENCES .................................................................. 113 APPENDIX A: HAZARD MAPPING .................................................................... 114 APPENDIX B: TEAM MEETING AGENDAS ........................................................ 127 APPENDIX C: PUBLIC MEETINGS ..................................................................... 131 APPENDIX D: PUBLIC COMMENTS RECEIVED .................................................. 146 APPENDIX E: PLAN ADOPTION ....................................................................... 147 APPENDIX F: MVP WORKSHOP RESULTS......................................................... 148 DRAFT SAUGUS HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN 2021 UPDATE Page iv of 148 DRAFT SAUGUS HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN 2021 UPDATE Page v of 148 TABLES Table 1: Plan Review and Update Process .......................................................................... 4 Table 2: Previous Federal/State Disaster Declarations… ................................................... 6 Table 3: FEMA-Funded Mitigation Projects .................................................................................... 8 Table 4: Saugus Characteristics… ....................................................................................... 9 Table 5: Saugus HMP/MVP Core Team members .............................................................. 13 Table 6: Climate Change and Natural Hazards ................................................................. 21 Table 7: Hazard Risks Summary… ..................................................................................... 22 Table 8: Essex County Flood Events, 2006 to 2020 ........................................................... 24 Table 9: Saugus Locally Identified Areas of Flooding ........................................................ 27 Table 10: Summary of Repetitive Loss Properties .............................................................. 28 Table 11: DCR Inventory of Dams in Saugus ...................................................................... 29 Table 12: Essex County Coastal Flood Events, 2006-2020 ...................................................... 32 Table 13: Rumney Marsh Restoration Projects ............................................................................. 37 Table 14: Indices Levels Corresponding to Drought Index Severity Levels ............................ 40 Table 15: Frequency of Massachusetts Drought Levels .............................................................. 41 Table 16 Essex County Extreme Heat Events ............................................................................... 45 Table 17: Essex County Extreme Heat Events ..................................................................... 46 Table 18: Saugus Potential Brushfire Areas ........................................................................ 49 Table 19: Hurricane Records for Massachusetts, 1938 to 2020 .............................................. 50 Table 20: Saffir/Simpson Scale… ..................................................................................... 51 Table 21: Nor’easter Events for Massachusetts, 1978 to 2020… ...................................... 52 Table 22: NESIS Categories ............................................................................................................ 53 Table 23: Severe Winter Storm Records for Massachusetts ..................................................... 53 Table 24: Heavy Snow Events and Impacts in Middlesex County, 2000 to 2010 ............... 55 Table 25: Hail Size Comparisons .................................................................................................. 56 Table 26: Essex County Ice Storms, 2000-2020 ......................................................................... 57 Table 27: Essex County Hail Events, 2000-2020 ........................................................................ 57 Table 28: Enhanced Fujita Scale .................................................................................................... 58 Table 29: Tornado Records for Essex County ..................................................................... 59 Table 30: Essex County Thunderstorm Events, 2006 to 2019 ............................................. 60 Table 31: Richter Scale and Effects .................................................................................... 62 Table 32: Historical Earthquakes in Massachusetts or Surrounding Area ............................ 63 Table 33: Landslide Volume and Velocity… ...................................................................... 66 Table 34: Town of Saugus 2005 Land Use… ..................................................................... 67 Table 35: Summary of Saugus Developments, 2014-2020 ................................................ 69 Table 36: Potential Future Development Projects ............................................................... 70 Table 37: Critical Facilities and Relationship to Hazard Areas ................................................ 72 Table 38: Estimated Damages from Hurricanes .................................................................. 78 DRAFT SAUGUS HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN 2021 UPDATE Page vi of 148 Table 39: Estimated Damages from Earthquakes ......................................................................... 79 Table 40: Estimated Damages from Flooding ..................................................................... 80 Table 41: Saugus Flood Insurance Policy Data.............................................................................. 82 Table 42: Existing Hazard Mitigation Measures in Saugus .................................................. 86 Table 43: Mitigation Measures from the 2011 Plan… ........................................................ 92 Table 44: Mitigation Prioritization… ................................................................................... 100 Table 45: Recommended Hazard Mitigation Measures....................................................... 105 FIGURES Figure 1: Six-Step Planning Process ......................................................................................... 10 Figure 2: Observed Increase in Temperature ......................................................................... 17 Figure 3: Projected Increase in Annual Days Over 90 Degrees F ............................................ 17 Figure 4: Observed Change in Total Annual Precipitation Falling ........................................... 18 Figure 5: Projected Change in Total Annual Precipitation Falling ........................................... 19 Figure 6: Observed Increase in Sea Level Rise ........................................................................ 20 Figure 7: Recent and Projected Increase in Sea Level Rise ..................................................... 20 Figure 8: Design Storm Trends and Projections for the 10-year, 24-hour Storm ................... 25 Figure 9: March 2010
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