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Q3, 2019 www.ntda.org Welcome National Trailer The NTDA Market Outlook is designed to help you new money moving into freight and the embrace of Dealers Association improve your business. Each quarter, we deliver e-commerce, for B2B not just B2C, adds to the overall information on the semi-trailer market, new value of delivering goods via trucks and trailers. This Mailing Address: technologies, new customer segments, ways to makes semi-trailers an even better value than all other 9864 E. Grand River Ave. optimize operations, reduce costs, sell more, and freight delivery modes — more even than they are Ste. 110-290 embrace change. now. Brighton, MI 48116 The semi-trailer industry is doing well, growing, We also look at the many new ways that anyone can innovating — and keeping America’s economy rolling. become a venture capitalist, determine if bitcoin is a Toll Free: 1-800-800-4552 Trailer sales have been great the past few years. Can worthy investment, and explore America’s growing Direct: (810) 229-5960 we continue this momentum as the economy softens? senior citizen class. Fax: (810) 588-6883 In this issue we explore the wide range of threats To submit articles or to advertise in the Market and opportunities facing the semi-trailer industry. Outlook, contact NTDA President Gwen Brown toll-free Writing & Editing This includes venture capital for freight optimization, at 1-800-800-4552, direct dial (810) 229-5960, mobile by Gwendolyn Brown, changing demographics, CARB rules, proposed side (810) 844-3124, or e-mail [email protected]. As always, NTDA President guard rules, and a possible surface infrastructure the NTDA welcomes your feedback. funding bill. In the short-term, not all the news is Layout & Graphic positive. However, in the long-term it seems as if the Design by: Wolf Pack Marketing LLC Welcome.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................1 Infrastructure Spending Bill FAQs ....................................................................................................................................................................2–4 Small Bets, Big Crowds .......................................................................................................................................................................................6–9 ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION: America Snapshot: Getting Older ............................................................................................................................................................... 10–11 Member Pricing: $49 Your Bitcoin Questions Answered ............................................................................................................................................................... 12–14 Non-Member Pricing: $89 The Big Number ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 CARB Trailer Certification: FAQs .................................................................................................................................................................. 18–20 Clarifying Rear Impact Guard Confusion .................................................................................................................................................. 21–24 1-800-800-4552 The Trailer Economy — Q3, 2019 ................................................................................................................................................................ 26–28 FTR Hosting Economic Outlook .......................................................................................................................................................................... 28 www.ntda.org facebook.com/ntdaonline www.linkedin.com/company/national-trailer-dealers-association/ www.ntda.org 2 Infrastructure Spending Bill FAQs You’ve seen the stories. Potholes causing thousands of dollars’ worth of damages. Semi-trailers stuck in traffic, roads closed, bridges in desperate need of repair. Earlier this year, an overpass on I-75 near Chattanooga collapsed, shutting down one of the most heavily trafficked trucking routes in the eastern U.S. America needs to invest more in its surface infrastructure. A study by the Brookings Institution found that when adjusted for inflation, total public spending on infrastructure fell by $10 billion from 2007–2017, from $450.4 billion to $440.5 billion. Moreover, part of this spending was a one-time stimulus in 2009, part of the “American Recovery & Reinvestment Act.” America has been underfunding infrastructure spending. WILL THE FEDERAL gave up on this massive package that covers the Much of the reporting on infrastructure GOVERNMENT OFFER ANY HELP? SOON? next two years of federal government spending. spending focuses on the latest statements, Is this the way forward? Unfortunately, which may ultimately not move the needle Sadly, the best odds are on…maybe. Partisan the new federal spending deal doesn’t cover much. Or, they focus on partisanship: President squabbles, an early election season, concerns infrastructure spending. That will come from Trump won’t work with the Democrats. The over who will pay for upgrades — and how what’s typically called the Highway Bill, and the Democrats don’t want to give President Trump — are all preventing the country from a amount in that bill — and when it passes — a win. We’ve culled through the posturing in massive infusion of money on improved basic remains completely up in the air. search of facts. infrastructure. No matter how badly you think it is needed, The recent major government spending or how much you believe it will help spur WHEN CAN WE EXPECT AN package, however, offers both hope and a way economic growth, it’s best to assume there INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING BILL? forward. Defense spending went up, domestic will be no massive infrastructure funding bill spending went up, there were no limits on in 2019. Time is running out on this year’s Addressing Congress at the start of this year, building a border wall, there were few demands legislative agenda, and partisanship now rules for offsetting new spending, and the total President Trump said infrastructure funding is Washington, DC. However, there’s still a very “not an option, this is a necessity.” Pundits were amount of spending increased a bit based real chance of a trillion-dollar-plus infrastructure on inflation. Yet for all of that, total spending sure it was going to happen in 2019. That seems spending bill actually passing sometime in 2020 less likely now. remained at a somewhat lower level compared — maybe exactly when the economy needs a to the overall size of the economy. Both parties That said, states want this passed, industry jolt of public spending. wants this passed, President Trump and most Democrats appear to want this to get passed. That may not mean as much anymore as it once did, given partisanship in the nation’s Capital. Luckily, time is on our side. The 2015 Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act (FAST) is only funded till September 2020. Most representatives and industry participants want something big to replace it, not a piecemeal package. A five-year plan, similar to FAST, is a reasonable expectation. It seems likely that FAST will get replaced. Continued on Page 3… Q3, 2019 3 Infrastructure Spending Bill FAQs WHAT WILL AN INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING BILL INCLUDE? Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, and President Trump, have all touted a potential $2 trillion infrastructure package, but that amount is not set in concrete, and even if passed, it may in fact turn out to be something like, say, $200 billion a year over 10 years, a huge amount, true, but it could get changed with each new bi-annual election. No surprise that Senator John Barrasso (R-WY), chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, stated that the committee would “be first out of the gate to pass a highway infrastructure bill.” The Senate unanimously approved a $287 billion reauthorization bill on July 30. The bill must be paired with a version from the U.S. House of Representatives and that is not expected to be introduced until the fall of this year, at the earliest. Nobody knows how much the final agreed upon figure will be, nor when. is the big new funding mechanism. The federal infrastructure spending. That’s right. In the The current leaders have added to the tax on gasoline has stayed at 18.4 cents per past, infrastructure spending has often been confusion by suggesting a “big and bold” gallon (24.4 cents for diesel) since 1993. used to help put people to work. However, infrastructure bill be used not only to fund That said, do not expect a new plan to reflect the unemployment rate is already at a 50-year roads and bridges, but mass transit, improved President Trump’s 2018 proposal, “Legislative low. In fact, there may not be enough readily communications infrastructure, used to help Outline for Rebuilding Infrastructure in America,” available workers should there be a sudden combat climate change, boost minority that no side embraced. In that plan, the need for significantly more construction and President’s focus was on regular federal funding, road workers. but in smaller amounts — $20 billion a year Trucking accounts for 70% of freight hauling While there

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