Election 2016: Looking Ahead to a Trump Administration

November 17, 2016 2016 Election Results

• Trump carried swing states (FL, IA, OH) as well as states that have traditionally voted blue in presidential races (PA, WI) • Michigan has 16 electoral votes, which will most likely go to Trump for 306 total • Popular Vote (as of 11/16/16): Clinton 47.6% / Trump 46.7%*

*Source: USElectionAtlas.org Source: New York Times

2 “A Country Divided by Counties”

• County results show Trump’s decisive gains were in rural areas in the rust belt/greater Appalachia

3 2016 Senate Results

• Republican-Majority Senate • 48 Democrats / 51 Republicans • 1 seat yet to be called • Pence can vote on ties • Democrats gained 2 seats Source: New York Times, updated Nov. 14, 2016

4 2018 Senate Map • 33 Senate seats are up • 25 Democratically-held seats are up • Competitive seats: • North Dakota (Heidi Heitkamp) • Ohio (Sherrod Brown) • Wisconsin (Tammy Baldwin) • Indiana (Joe Donnelly) • Florida (Bill Nelson) • Missouri (Claire McCaskill) • Montana (Jon Tester) • New Jersey (Bob Menendez) • West Virginia (Joe Manchin) • Filibuster? Nuclear Option?

5 2016 House Results

• Republican-Majority House • The Republican Party currently controls the House, with 246 seats, 28 more than the 218 needed for control • Final Results pending (4 seats yet to be called) • Democrats pick up ~7-8 seats

Source: New York Times, updated Nov. 14, 2016

6 Trump’s Likely Cabinet Choices

• White House Chief of Staff: Reince Priebus, the Chairman of the Republican National Committee • Strategic Advisor: • Secretary of State: John Bolton, Bob Corker, , Zalmay Khalilzad, Stanley McChrystal, • Attorney General: Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, • Interior Secretary: Jan Brewer, Robert Grady, Harold Hamm, Forrest Lucas, • Agriculture Secretary: Sam Brownback, Chuck Conner, Sid Miller, Sonny Perdue

7 7 Trump’s Likely Cabinet Choices (cont’d)

• Health and Human Services: Tom Price, , Bobby Jindal, Rick Scott • Energy Secretary: James Connaughton, Robert Grady, Harold Hamm • EPA Administrator: Myron Ebell (Competitive Enterprise Institute), Robert Grady (Gryphon Investors partner), (Bracewell LLP lawyer/deputy EPA administrator in George W. Bush administration)

8 8 Schedule of Congressional Actions

Lame Duck Congress (three weeks) • December 9: Deadline to pass extension of current Continuing Resolution to fund U.S. agencies/military • December 17: Congress adjourns • Other: Energy Bill (unlikely); 45Q tax credit (unlikely); TPP (no action); National Defense Authorization Act (likely); Iran Sanctions (likely); Medical Research (likely)

Potential Post-Inauguration Actions • Feb./March ‘17: New deadline to pass FY ‘17 budget; Potential new debt ceiling • First 100 Days: Repeal ACA; Withdraw Clean Power Plan; Comprehensive Tax Reform; Repeal Dodd-Frank • 2017 and Beyond: Confirm Supreme Court justice; Education reform; Cut funding for EPA; Infrastructure jobs bill; Reform CFPB

9 9 Schedule of Executive Branch Actions Inauguration: January 20, 2017 First 100 Days Domestic Policy Foreign Policy • Rescind Executive Actions, memoranda and orders issued by • Trade Agreements (NAFTA, TPP) President Obama • Immigration reform/The Wall • Halt midnight regulations in Congress • Pull out of Paris Climate Agreement • Nominate/Confirm Cabinet and Sub-Cabinet • Eliminate payments to UN climate change programs • Nominate Supreme Court replacement for Scalia • Freeze federal hiring • Lift restrictions on oil, natural gas, and coal production ( i.e. Keystone Pipeline, streamline permits) • End Offshoring Act • New ethics rules for appointees and lobbyists?

10 The Current Supreme Court

Appointed by Republican Presidents Appointed by Democratic Presidents • Vacant () – Reagan • Ruth B. Ginsburg – Clinton • Anthony Kennedy – Reagan • Stephen Breyer – Clinton • – H.W. Bush • Sonia Sotomayor – Obama • John Roberts – W. Bush • Elena Kagan – Obama • – W. Bush

11 11 Leadership/Senate balance • House leadership positions are uncertain

Senate Leadership House Leadership Mitch McConnell Chuck Schumer Paul Ryan Nancy Pelosi R – Majority Leader D- Minority Leader R – House Speaker D – Minority Leader

12 12 115th Congress, Democratic Leadership On Wednesday November 16th, Senate Democratic Leader-elect Charles E. Schumer announced the Senate Democratic Leadership and committee ranking members for the 115th Congress following Senate Democratic leadership elections. Senate Democratic Senate Committee Ranking Leadership Members • Senate Democratic Leader and Chair of the • Agriculture: Senator Debbie Stabenow • Rules: Senator Amy Klobuchar Conference: Senator Charles Schumer • Appropriations: Senator Patrick Leahy • Small Business: Senator Jeanne • Minority Whip: Senator Dick Durbin • Armed Services: Senator Jack Reed Shaheen • Assistant Democratic Leader: Senator Patty Murray • Banking: Senator Sherrod Brown • Veterans Affairs: Senator Jon Tester • Chair of the Democratic Policy and • Budget: Senator Bernie Sanders • Aging: Senator Bob Casey Communications Committee: Senator Debbie • Commerce: Senator Bill Nelson • Ethics: Senator Chris Coons Stabenow • Energy: Senator Maria Cantwell • Intelligence: Senator Mark Warner • Vice Chair of the Conference: Senator Elizabeth • EPW: Senator Tom Carper • JEC: Senator Martin Heinrich Warren • Finance: Senator Ron Wyden • Vice Chair of the Conference: Senator Mark Warner • Foreign Relations: Senator Ben Cardin • Chair of Steering Committee: Senator Amy Klobuchar • HELP: Senator Patty Murray • Chair of Outreach: Senator Bernie Sanders • HSGAC: Senator Claire McCaskill • Vice Chair of the Democratic Policy and • Indian Affairs: Senator Tom Udall Communications Committee: Senator Joe Manchin • Judiciary: Senator Dianne Feinstein • Senate Democratic Conference Secretary: Senator Tammy Baldwin

13 Trump Transition Team

14 Harold Hamm Andrew Wheeler • CEO, Continental Resources • Transition Team Energy & Environment Issues • Potential Secretary of Energy • Principle at FaegreBD Consulting • “Fracker in Chief ” • Fmr. Senate EPW Staff Director (Inhofe) • $12B estimated net worth • Broadly knowledgeable on energy & environmental • Vetted by Romney in 2012 law/regulation

Michael Catanzaro Jeff Holmstead • Chosen to lead Trump’s Energy Team • Being considered for EPA Administrator • Partner at lobbying firm CGCN with • Lawyer with Bracewell L.L.P. clients Koch Industries, Encana Oil and • Former deputy EPA administrator in the George W. Gas, Halliburton Bush administration • Lobbied against Clean Power Plan

Rep. Kevin Cramer (N.D.) Myron Ebell • Among first Trump Supporters in Congress • Chosen to lead EPA Transition • Self-declared Climate Skeptic • Director of Global Warming and • Drafted White Papers for Trump International at the • Opposed to Clean Power Plan Competitive Enterprise Institute • Proposed “Clean Fossil Fund” • Climate-change denier • Proposed First 100 days rollback of regulations

15 Republican Party Platform Climate Change State Jurisdiction "Climate change is far from this nation's most pressing "...respect the states' proven ability to regulate the use of hydraulic fracturing, national security issue." methane emissions, and horizontal drilling..."

Air Pollution Energy Development "Even if no additional controls are added, air pollution "...support the development of all forms of energy that are marketable in a free will continue to decline for the next several decades due economy without subsidies, including coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear power, and to technological turnover of aging equipment." hydropower."

International Agreements Renewable Energy Development "...reject the agendas of both the Kyoto Protocol and the "...encourage the cost-effective development of renewable energy sources - wind, Paris Agreement...no such agreement can be binding solar, biomass, biofuel, geothermal, and tidal energy - by private capital." upon the until it is submitted to and ratified by the Senate." Environmental Regulation "...propose to shift responsibility for environmental regulation from the federal Carbon Tax bureaucracy to the states and to transform the EPA into an independent “…oppose any carbon tax.” bipartisan commission, similar to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, with structural safeguards against politicized science." Carbon Capture Sequestration "...urge the private sector to focus its resources on the "...forbid the EPA to regulate carbon dioxide...[and] restore to Congress the development of carbon capture and sequestration authority to set the National Ambient Air Quality Standards and modernize the technology..." permitting process under the National Environmental Policy Act..."

16 If Trump Acts as a Typical Conservative (a la )

17 1) Prevent Federal Regulation of Hydraulic 4) Stop EPA Overreach and the War on Coal. Fracturing. Exclude greenhouse gases from regulation by EPA and other federal agencies Stop certain EPA regulations that will adversely impact 2) Improve Domestic Refining Capacity. coal and electric power plants Streamline the permitting process for upgrading and building new refineries 5) Force Congress and the President to Vote on Repeal the Renewable Fuel Standard EPA Regulations that Kill Jobs. Require both Congress and the President to approve any 3) Improve Process to Develop Energy EPA regulation that has a negative job impact Infrastructure. Support passage of the REINS Act, separate piece of Approve and allow private sector to build the Keystone legislation not included in this bill, which would require pipeline congressional approval of all major rules and regulations. Remove barriers to developing and approving additional national pipelines and cross-border energy infrastructure I. Expand Energy Development So More Private Sector Jobs Can Be Created (6-9)

18 6) Broaden Energy Development on Federal 7) Open Offshore Exploration. Land. Expand the offshore areas of the Outer Continental Shelf Increase energy development on federal land available for development Provide states the option of leasing, permitting and regulating Streamline the permitting process for additional offshore energy resources on federal lands within their borders; or exploration If states do not wish to manage energy development on federal lands within their borders, the federal leasing, 8) Expand U.S. Energy Exports. permitting and regulating will be reformed to increase energy Expand LNG exports by facilitating permits development by: End the crude oil export ban Streamlining permitting for development on federal lands Prevent excessively broad environmental review of coal Improving certainty in the leasing and development process export terminals Expanding development of energy on federal lands Expand energy development in National Petroleum Reserve 9) Dedicate Additional Revenues to a Trust Fund in Alaska for Debt Reduction. Expand energy development on Indian lands Direct all additional revenues generated by exploration and Open up the Coastal Plain of Alaska (ANWR) for drilling on federal lands (excluding the share allocated to the development states) exclusively to national debt reduction—“Debt Freedom Fund.”

19 Trump & Infrastructure

20 21 Green energy is just an expensive feel-good for tree-huggers There has been a big push to develop alternative forms of energy--so-called green energy--from renewable sources. That's a big mistake. To begin with, the whole push for renewable energy is being driven by the wrong motivation, the mistaken belief that global climate change is being caused by carbon emissions. If you don't buy that--and I don't--then what we have is really just an expensive way of making the tree-huggers feel good about themselves. The most popular source of green energy is solar as several decades after installing solar panels to get your money back. That's not exactly what I would call a good investment. Even if that number is only half right, what kind of investment do you want to make that takes 20 years before you break even Source: Crippled America, by , p. 65 , Nov 3, 2015

Trump: Wind Projects Are Killing “More Than 1 Million Trump Urged Scottish Parliament To Cancel Proposal Birds A Year.” In a May 2016 speech to the North Dakota Petroleum For Offshore Wind Farm Because They The Turbines Council, Trump said, “The administration fast-tracked wind projects Would Spoil The View At His Golf Resort; “They Are that kill more than 1 million birds a year.” [Donald Trump speech, 5/26/16] Ugly, They Are Noisy … If Scotland Does This, Scotland Will Be In Serious Trouble.” In April 2012, Trump Donald Trump Affirmed His Support For The Renewable urged Scotland’s parliament to “end plans for an offshore wind farm Fuel Standard After Touring The POET Biorefining Plant he fears will spoil the view at his exclusive new $750-million-pound In Gowrie, Iowa. “Before attending the rally in Fort Dodge, Trump ($1.2-billion) golf resort … ‘Scotland, if you pursue this policy of stopped at the POET Biorefining plant in Gowrie to tour the plant and these monstrous turbines, Scotland will go broke,’ he said. ‘They are discuss the renewable fuel standard with plant leadership and the co- ugly, they are noisy and they are dangerous. If Scotland does this, chairs of America’s Renewable Energy. … That meeting was closed to Scotland will be in serious trouble and will lose tourism to places like the public, but afterward, Trump took two questions from a group of Ireland, and they are laughing at us In September 2012, Trump about 35 people who had been invited to a closed event. There, Trump tweeted,” English taxpayers should stop subsidizing the destruction affirmed his support of the renewable fuel standard. ‘I just want to tell of Scotland by paying massive subsidies for ugly wind turbines.” [Associated Press, 4/26/12; Donald Trump Twitter, 9/26/12] you, you have my support,’ he said. ‘I’m with you.’” [Des Moines Register, 12/13/15]

http://www.lcv.org/assets/docs/presidential-candidates-on-renewable.pdf 22 Presidential Transition: Generic Options for Executive Actions Executive Orders • Can be rescinded by incoming President without additional process Rulemakings • Incoming Administration can delay effectiveness for 60 days via blanket order (especially useful for “midnight rulemakings) • Revision or Rescission (Notice and Comment Required for Rules in Effect) • Rulemakings in litigation: Request Voluntary Remand, decline to defend, decline to appeal adverse decisions • Work with Congress to rescind regulations (use Congressional Review Act, defund implementation, pass substantive amendments to statutes repealing authorizing authority and/or eliminating regulations)

23 Executive Branch Actions Relevant to ICAC: Climate Change Related Actions

EPA Clean Power Plan (currently in litigation and under stay from the Supreme Court) • Trump will move to withdraw/revoke or otherwise not move forward with the CPP. There are variety of ways this could happen, most likely through a “voluntary remand.” Timing of the D.C. Circuit opinion (likely January 2017) could complicate the process, but is unlikely to alter the final result. Paris Agreement on Climate Change • Trump will formally disavow further action on the Paris Agreement, and could issue an executive order or take other actions to formalize U.S. decision not to move forward. Trump will likely cut funding for international efforts (green climate fund). Under the terms of the agreement, the U.S. cannot formally withdraw prior to October 2020. Greenhouse-Gas Related Regulations • Methane, oil and gas production (suite of rules/ICR/CTG/BLM rule), light and heavy duty vehicle standards, etc., will all likely be delayed, rescinded or substantially weakened.

24 Executive Branch Actions relevant to ICAC: Conventional Pollutants EPA Mercury and Air Toxics Standard (MATS) • MATS was overturned by the Supreme Court on grounds of cost consideration. EPA has now issued a supplemental finding on cost currently under consideration. Although MATS compliance is largely already completed, EPA could withdraw the rule and re-propose and/or seek other ways to ensure that EPA “co-benefits” approach to cost consideration is eliminated.

New Source Review • The current NSR program is thought of as a significant impediment to upgrades and modifications at existing plants. It is likely that the Trump Administration will want to explore administrative or statutory changes to this program to allow greater flexibility in making such changes without triggering NSR applicability.

Ozone: 2015 standard is under review in the D.C. Circuit and awaiting oral argument and a decision • Trump will have the opportunity to either withdraw the ozone rule through the voluntary remand process or allow the rule to proceed through the courts, in hopes of either obtaining a negative Supreme Court opinion or allowing a lax state implementation process.

PM NAAQS: 2012 NAAQS revision to 12 ug/m3 upheld by D.C. Circuit. Implementation Rule released July, 2016 • 2012 NAAQS revision would be very hard to undo even through re-proposal and re-finalization. Status of Implementation Rule unclear under a Trump Administration, with many complex details to re-examine.

25 Executive Branch Actions relevant to ICAC: Conventional Pollutants

Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) update rule (finalized September 2016) • This rule is the latest in long series of attempts to regulate transported air pollution in the Eastern States and has a very complicated legal history, involving numerous court decisions. The Trump Administration may take some time to figure out the path forward/backward on this rule, but will likely seek to remove/modify it, possibly replacing it with something more flexible and with longer timeframes.

Regional Haze (May 2016 Proposed Amendments to Regional Haze Rule) • The Administration’s response is unclear - likely will not go forward with final rule, question regarding CSAPR=BART

Steam Electric ELG (consolidated challenges in the 5th circuit, briefing not completed - dispute re Confidential Business Information) • Voluntary Remand possible - implementation was set to begin in 2018

Coal Ash (Final rule 2015, extension of deadlines July 2016/October 2016)(comply with D.C. Circuit Vacature of early closure provisions) • Trump Action unclear pending further examination

26 Congressional Action

• 48 Democratic votes in Senate until 2018 • Fate of filibuster • Energy Bill Likely • EPA Budget Cuts/DOE Budget • Congressional Review Act possible for rules finalized after May 2016 • Amendments to the Clean Air Act? • Message Vote on Paris Agreement? • Regulations from the Executive in Need of Scrutiny (REINS Act)

27 2200 Wilson Boulevard 980 9th Street Suite 310 16th Floor Arlington, VA 22201 Sacramento, CA 95814

202-296-8086 www.AJW-Inc.com @ajwinc

28