Election 2016: Looking Ahead to a Trump Administration November 17, 2016 2016 Election Results • Trump carried swing states (FL, IA, OH) as well as states that have traditionally voted blue in presidential races (PA, WI) • Michigan has 16 electoral votes, which will most likely go to Trump for 306 total • Popular Vote (as of 11/16/16): Clinton 47.6% / Trump 46.7%* *Source: USElectionAtlas.org Source: New York Times 2 “A Country Divided by Counties” • County results show Trump’s decisive gains were in rural areas in the rust belt/greater Appalachia 3 2016 Senate Results • Republican-Majority Senate • 48 Democrats / 51 Republicans • 1 seat yet to be called • Pence can vote on ties • Democrats gained 2 seats Source: New York Times, updated Nov. 14, 2016 4 2018 Senate Map • 33 Senate seats are up • 25 Democratically-held seats are up • Competitive seats: • North Dakota (Heidi Heitkamp) • Ohio (Sherrod Brown) • Wisconsin (Tammy Baldwin) • Indiana (Joe Donnelly) • Florida (Bill Nelson) • Missouri (Claire McCaskill) • Montana (Jon Tester) • New Jersey (Bob Menendez) • West Virginia (Joe Manchin) • Filibuster? Nuclear Option? 5 2016 House Results • Republican-Majority House • The Republican Party currently controls the House, with 246 seats, 28 more than the 218 needed for control • Final Results pending (4 seats yet to be called) • Democrats pick up ~7-8 seats Source: New York Times, updated Nov. 14, 2016 6 Trump’s Likely Cabinet Choices • White House Chief of Staff: Reince Priebus, the Chairman of the Republican National Committee • Strategic Advisor: Steve Bannon • Secretary of State: John Bolton, Bob Corker, Newt Gingrich, Zalmay Khalilzad, Stanley McChrystal, Rudy Giuliani • Attorney General: Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, Jeff Sessions • Interior Secretary: Jan Brewer, Robert Grady, Harold Hamm, Forrest Lucas, Sarah Palin • Agriculture Secretary: Sam Brownback, Chuck Conner, Sid Miller, Sonny Perdue 7 7 Trump’s Likely Cabinet Choices (cont’d) • Health and Human Services: Tom Price, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rick Scott • Energy Secretary: James Connaughton, Robert Grady, Harold Hamm • EPA Administrator: Myron Ebell (Competitive Enterprise Institute), Robert Grady (Gryphon Investors partner), Jeffrey Holmstead (Bracewell LLP lawyer/deputy EPA administrator in George W. Bush administration) 8 8 Schedule of Congressional Actions Lame Duck Congress (three weeks) • December 9: Deadline to pass extension of current Continuing Resolution to fund U.S. agencies/military • December 17: Congress adjourns • Other: Energy Bill (unlikely); 45Q tax credit (unlikely); TPP (no action); National Defense Authorization Act (likely); Iran Sanctions (likely); Medical Research (likely) Potential Post-Inauguration Actions • Feb./March ‘17: New deadline to pass FY ‘17 budget; Potential new debt ceiling • First 100 Days: Repeal ACA; Withdraw Clean Power Plan; Comprehensive Tax Reform; Repeal Dodd-Frank • 2017 and Beyond: Confirm Supreme Court justice; Education reform; Cut funding for EPA; Infrastructure jobs bill; Reform CFPB 9 9 Schedule of Executive Branch Actions Inauguration: January 20, 2017 First 100 Days Domestic Policy Foreign Policy • Rescind Executive Actions, memoranda and orders issued by • Trade Agreements (NAFTA, TPP) President Obama • Immigration reform/The Wall • Halt midnight regulations in Congress • Pull out of Paris Climate Agreement • Nominate/Confirm Cabinet and Sub-Cabinet • Eliminate payments to UN climate change programs • Nominate Supreme Court replacement for Scalia • Freeze federal hiring • Lift restrictions on oil, natural gas, and coal production ( i.e. Keystone Pipeline, streamline permits) • End Offshoring Act • New ethics rules for appointees and lobbyists? 10 The Current Supreme Court Appointed by Republican Presidents Appointed by Democratic Presidents • Vacant (Antonin Scalia) – Reagan • Ruth B. Ginsburg – Clinton • Anthony Kennedy – Reagan • Stephen Breyer – Clinton • Clarence Thomas – H.W. Bush • Sonia Sotomayor – Obama • John Roberts – W. Bush • Elena Kagan – Obama • Samuel Alito – W. Bush 11 11 Leadership/Senate balance • House leadership positions are uncertain Senate Leadership House Leadership Mitch McConnell Chuck Schumer Paul Ryan Nancy Pelosi R – Majority Leader D- Minority Leader R – House Speaker D – Minority Leader 12 12 115th Congress, Democratic Leadership On Wednesday November 16th, Senate Democratic Leader-elect Charles E. Schumer announced the Senate Democratic Leadership and committee ranking members for the 115th Congress following Senate Democratic leadership elections. Senate Democratic Senate Committee Ranking Leadership Members • Senate Democratic Leader and Chair of the • Agriculture: Senator Debbie Stabenow • Rules: Senator Amy Klobuchar Conference: Senator Charles Schumer • Appropriations: Senator Patrick Leahy • Small Business: Senator Jeanne • Minority Whip: Senator Dick Durbin • Armed Services: Senator Jack Reed Shaheen • Assistant Democratic Leader: Senator Patty Murray • Banking: Senator Sherrod Brown • Veterans Affairs: Senator Jon Tester • Chair of the Democratic Policy and • Budget: Senator Bernie Sanders • Aging: Senator Bob Casey Communications Committee: Senator Debbie • Commerce: Senator Bill Nelson • Ethics: Senator Chris Coons Stabenow • Energy: Senator Maria Cantwell • Intelligence: Senator Mark Warner • Vice Chair of the Conference: Senator Elizabeth • EPW: Senator Tom Carper • JEC: Senator Martin Heinrich Warren • Finance: Senator Ron Wyden • Vice Chair of the Conference: Senator Mark Warner • Foreign Relations: Senator Ben Cardin • Chair of Steering Committee: Senator Amy Klobuchar • HELP: Senator Patty Murray • Chair of Outreach: Senator Bernie Sanders • HSGAC: Senator Claire McCaskill • Vice Chair of the Democratic Policy and • Indian Affairs: Senator Tom Udall Communications Committee: Senator Joe Manchin • Judiciary: Senator Dianne Feinstein • Senate Democratic Conference Secretary: Senator Tammy Baldwin 13 Trump Transition Team 14 Harold Hamm Andrew Wheeler • CEO, Continental Resources • Transition Team Energy & Environment Issues • Potential Secretary of Energy • Principle at FaegreBD Consulting • “Fracker in Chief ” • Fmr. Senate EPW Staff Director (Inhofe) • $12B estimated net worth • Broadly knowledgeable on energy & environmental • Vetted by Romney in 2012 law/regulation Michael Catanzaro Jeff Holmstead • Chosen to lead Trump’s Energy Team • Being considered for EPA Administrator • Partner at lobbying firm CGCN with • Lawyer with Bracewell L.L.P. clients Koch Industries, Encana Oil and • Former deputy EPA administrator in the George W. Gas, Halliburton Bush administration • Lobbied against Clean Power Plan Rep. Kevin Cramer (N.D.) Myron Ebell • Among first Trump Supporters in Congress • Chosen to lead EPA Transition • Self-declared Climate Skeptic • Director of Global Warming and • Drafted White Papers for Trump International Environmental Policy at the • Opposed to Clean Power Plan Competitive Enterprise Institute • Proposed “Clean Fossil Fund” • Climate-change denier • Proposed First 100 days rollback of regulations 15 Republican Party Platform Climate Change State Jurisdiction "Climate change is far from this nation's most pressing "...respect the states' proven ability to regulate the use of hydraulic fracturing, national security issue." methane emissions, and horizontal drilling..." Air Pollution Energy Development "Even if no additional controls are added, air pollution "...support the development of all forms of energy that are marketable in a free will continue to decline for the next several decades due economy without subsidies, including coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear power, and to technological turnover of aging equipment." hydropower." International Agreements Renewable Energy Development "...reject the agendas of both the Kyoto Protocol and the "...encourage the cost-effective development of renewable energy sources - wind, Paris Agreement...no such agreement can be binding solar, biomass, biofuel, geothermal, and tidal energy - by private capital." upon the United States until it is submitted to and ratified by the Senate." Environmental Regulation "...propose to shift responsibility for environmental regulation from the federal Carbon Tax bureaucracy to the states and to transform the EPA into an independent “…oppose any carbon tax.” bipartisan commission, similar to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, with structural safeguards against politicized science." Carbon Capture Sequestration "...urge the private sector to focus its resources on the "...forbid the EPA to regulate carbon dioxide...[and] restore to Congress the development of carbon capture and sequestration authority to set the National Ambient Air Quality Standards and modernize the technology..." permitting process under the National Environmental Policy Act..." 16 If Trump Acts as a Typical Conservative (a la Ted Cruz) 17 1) Prevent Federal Regulation of Hydraulic 4) Stop EPA Overreach and the War on Coal. Fracturing. Exclude greenhouse gases from regulation by EPA and other federal agencies Stop certain EPA regulations that will adversely impact 2) Improve Domestic Refining Capacity. coal and electric power plants Streamline the permitting process for upgrading and building new refineries 5) Force Congress and the President to Vote on Repeal the Renewable Fuel Standard EPA Regulations that Kill Jobs. Require both Congress and the President to approve any 3) Improve Process to Develop Energy EPA regulation that has a negative job impact Infrastructure. Support passage of the