SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Monthly APR 2009 30 March 2009 This report is available online and can beFORECAST viewed together with Update Reports on developments during the month at www.securitycouncilreport.org OVERVIEW FOR APRIL CONTENTS OF THIS ISSUE Status Update since our March Mexico will hold the Council presidency There is likely to be a debate on Haiti Forecast...... 2 in April. followed by consultations, both expected on 6 April. ...... 3 Two open debates are currently expected. Israel/Palestine: Gaza...... 5 There will also be the public monthly Coun- The first will be on mediation and settle- Children and Armed Conflict...... 7 ment of disputes, most likely on 14 April. cil meeting on the Middle East. ...... 10 This debate will respond to a report requested A briefing on the results of the Secretary- Democratic ....12 by the Council in S/PRST/2008/36 and is General’s Board of Inquiry’s investigation expected from the Secretary-General in late ...... 14 into all incidents involving death and dam- March (Security Council Report will publish Haiti...... 16 age at UN premises in Gaza between 27 an Update Report prior to the debate). -...... 17 December and 18 January is also expected, Iraq/Kuwait...... 19 On 29 April, Mexican Foreign Minister Patricia but it is unclear whether this will be dis- Côte d’Ivoire...... 20 Espinosa is expected to chair a debate on chil- cussed only in private session or whether a dren and armed conflict, a topic of public meeting may also occur. Nepal...... 22 particular interest to Mexico due to its chairman- Notable Dates for April ...... 24 Consultations are expected on Guinea- ship of the Council’s working group on this Important Dates over the Horizon....24 Bissau (on the Secretary-General’s report subject. (Security Council Report will publish and the overall situation in the country); on the second Cross-cutting Report on Children the recent transfer of the military components the DRC (on the Secretary-General’s report and Armed Conflict prior to the debate.) in and CAR from EU to UN command). on MONUC); on Iraq (on the Iraq/Kuwait Public meetings are expected on Western missing persons and property issues as well At press time it was unclear whether the Sahara and Sudan to adopt resolutions as on the Development Fund for Iraq and its Secretary-General’s report on Nepal, renewing mandates of the relevant peace- International Advisory and Monitoring Board); expected in late April, will be discussed dur- keeping operations (MINURSO and UNMIS) on Somalia (on the Secretary-General’s ing that month or moved to May. It was also which both expire on 30 April. In both cases, report); on Côte d’Ivoire (on sanctions and unclear whether the now overdue report by earlier private meetings with troop contrib- to discuss the current political situation, in the Secretary-General on / uting countries and informal consultations particular the delays in the electoral would be issued. If so, consultations on this are expected. process);and on MINURCAT (taking stock of issue are likely. Aide-Memoire

Important matters pending for the Council July attack against UNAMID peacekeep- an initiative to look at ways of improving the include: ers. The results are still awaited. Council’s handling of issues. n The Secretary-General’s report on the bor- n The monthly reports from the Kosovo Force An outcome is expected in August. der situation between Djibouti and Eritrea (KFOR) appear to have stopped. The last one n The quarterly reports of the International requested by the Council in resolution 1862 available covers the period 1-31 July 2008. Security Assistance Force in Afghani- and due on 25 February is delayed. n In resolution 1327 on the report of the Panel stan are now always outdated when n The 2005 World Summit requested that on Peace Operations (the released. (The last report, released in the Security Council consider reforms for Brahimi Report, S/2000/809), the Council December, covered the period 1 May-31 the Military Staff Committee. This has yet decided to review periodically the imple- July 2008.) The next report covering the to be addressed. mentation of the provisions contained in period 1 August-30 October 2008 is yet n In a presidential statement on Darfur in the resolution’s annex. No such reviews to be released. July 2008 (S/PRST/2008/27) the Council have occurred in the past four years. How- n UNAMl reports on human rights in Iraq, in welcomed the UN investigation into the 8 ever, in January the Council embarked on >>page 2

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  Aide-Memoire (continued)

the past produced every two to three update the index to Council notes and report of the Lebanon Independent Bor- months, are now also very delayed. (The statements on working methods. This der Assessment Team, which was last report, released in December, covered has not been published. issued on 25 August 2008 (S/2008/582). the period from 1 January-30 June 2008.) n The Secretary-General has yet to put for- n The Council is awaiting the Peacebuild- n The Secretary-General’s recommenda- ward proposals for the delineation of the ing Commission’s response to its May tions to the Council regarding specific international borders of Lebanon, espe- 2008 request for advice and recommen- action on sexual violence as put forward cially in the Sheb’a Farms area, in dations on the situation in the Central in his latest report on protection of accordance with resolution 1701, and African Republic (S/2008/383). civilians in armed conflict (S/2007/643) respond to the cartographic, legal and n The Secretary-General is yet to report to have yet to be implemented in country- political implications of the alternative the Council on as requested in a specific situations. path suggested by the government of February presidential 2008 statement (S/ n The Council requested the Secretariat on Lebanon in its seven-point plan. PRST/2008/4). 21 November 2006 (S/2006/928) to n The Council has yet to address the latest

Status Update since our March Forecast

Recent developments on the situations importance of a further improvement of nance, corruption, judiciary reform and the covered in this Forecast are addressed in regional relations, and encouraging the Afghan National Police. On 23 March the the relevant briefs. Interesting develop- authorities and political stakeholders in Council extended the mandate of UNAMA ments on other issues in the Council during Chad and CAR to continue to pursue their for a further 12 months (S/RES/1868). The March included: efforts of national dialogue (SC/9614). Council requested an increase in frequency n Lebanon: On 10 March the Secretary- n Cooperation with Regional Organisa- of reporting from the Secretary-General General’s Special Coordinator for Lebanon, tions: On 18 March the Council held a (every three months as opposed to every Michael Williams, briefed the Council in public meeting to consider the report six) and the development of benchmarks for consultations on the latest Secretary- (S/2008/813) of the joint AU-UN panel set tracking progress in the implementation of General’s report on implementation of up by the Secretary-General to review UNAMA’s mandate. resolution 1701 (S/2009/119). The Council options for supporting AU peacekeeping n : In her briefing to the Council in then held consultations. operations. The meeting, chaired by Lib- closed consultations on 19 March the n Iran: On 10 March the Council was briefed ya’s Minister for African Affairs Ali Treiki, Secretary-General’s Special Representa- by the Chairman of the 1737 Sanctions had high-level participation, including by tive Ellen Margrethe Løj said the security Committee on Iran, Japanese Ambassador the Commissioner for Peace and Security situation in Liberia was stable, but fragile. Yukio Takasu. He said that the Committee of the AU, Ramtane Lamamra, and the chair She said that regional problems, including had received a letter from a member state of the panel, Romano Prodi, former prime drug trafficking, had increased since her seeking guidance regarding its inspection minister of , and the Minister for For- last briefing. It would still take time to build of a vessel carrying its flag and coming from eign Affairs of , Nkosazana up national security sector capacity and Iran that had been found to be transporting Dlamini Zuma. A presidential statement more funding was needed. Elections arms related material. Iran was therefore in was adopted in conclusion requesting the scheduled for 2011 would be an important violation of resolution 1747 prohibiting it to Secretary-General to submit a report by 28 test for Liberia. supply, sell or transfer any arms and related September that will include a detailed n Kosovo: On 23 March the Council was material. After the briefing, the US expressed assessment of the recommendations con- briefed by the Secretary-General’s Special concern about Iran’s continued noncompli- tained in the AU-UN Panel report, in Representative Lamberto Zannier on the ance with Council demands but said that it particular those on financing, as well as on situation in Kosovo. The Secretary- was prepared for principled engagement the establishment of a joint AU-UN team. General’s report (S/2009/149) covered with Iran. The same concerns were empha- n Afghanistan: On 19 March Kai Eide, Spe- activities from 1 November 2008 to 9 March sised by and the UK (S/PV.6090). cial Representative of the Secretary-General 2009 and indicated that the UN Interim Admin- n Chad/CAR: On 17 March Edmund Mullet, for Afghanistan, briefed the Council in an istration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) was the UN Assistant Secretary General for open debate on the Secretary-General’s facing increasing challenges as the Kosovo Peacekeeping Operations, briefed the latest report (S/2009/135). Eide said donor authorities see the mission’s tasks as having Council in closed consultations on the trans- coordination was a major concern and been completed. In his briefing Zannier told fer of authority on 15 March from the EU priority of the UN Assistance Mission in the Council that although Kosovo has been Mission in the and Afghanistan’s (UNAMA) mandate. He said stable, ethnic tensions persist. He also said Chad (EUFOR) to a UN military component a major problem was that some donor coun- that there was a need for leaders in Pristina for the UN Mission in the Central African tries had national strategies that they were and Belgrade to put the needs of Kosovo’s Republic and Chad (MINURCAT). The not willing to adjust. Afghanistan’s Perma- communities ahead of their political interests. Council issued a press statement welcom- nent Representative to the UN said more He said that UNMIK had successfully ing the successful transfer, stressing the should be achieved in the areas of gover- >>page 3

 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org reconfigured its rule of law elements and house demolitions in East Jerusalem and n Central African Republic: At press time a that by 1 July 2009 UNMIK will have refo- to refrain from unilateral actions such as draft presidential statement welcoming cused its staff on minority issues, returns settlement activities that may prejudge the recommendation by the Secretary- and freedom of movement and issues final status issues. The Council held an General to establish a UN Integrated related to cultural heritage as set out in the open debate in which a number of delega- Peacebuilding Office in CAR (BINUCA) to Secretary-General’s June 2008 report. tions said that violations of international succeed the current UN Peacebuilding n Middle East: On 25 March the Council humanitarian law during the Gaza war Support Office (BONUCA) had been circu- heard a briefing from Under Secretary- needed to be investigated (including lated among Council members by France. General for Political Affairs B. Lynn Pascoe Austria,Mexico, , , Lebanon). The statement was expected to be adopted on the situation in the Middle East. He (S/PV.6100 and resumption 1). during the week of 30 March. said very little progress had been made n Bosnia and Herzegovina: On 25 March n Sri Lanka: On 26 March members of on key issues outlined in resolution 1860, the Council in resolution 1869 welcomed the Security Council held an inter-active including the establishment of a proper and agreed to the designation of Valentin discussion on Sri Lanka, outside of Coun- ceasefire regime in Gaza, unimpeded Inzko of Austria as the next high represen- cil chambers and in closed session. access for humanitarian assistance, open- tative for that country. In the resolution, the Under-Secretary-General for Humanitar- ing of the crossings, prevention of illicit Council also paid tribute to the efforts ian Affairs John Holmes briefed and arms trafficking and intra-Palestinian rec- of the outgoing High Representative representatives of the Sri Lankan mission onciliation. He also called on Israel to stop Miroslav Laják. also participated.

Sudan Sudan. On 13 March, 13 southern Suda- sibility nor grants him immunity against nese were killed in an attack by the LRA. prosecution before the ICC. Execution of Expected Council Action the warrant requires cooperation from gov- In Darfur, approximately 34,000 people have The mandate for the UN Mission in Sudan ernments capable of arresting him. fled to Zam Zam camp, outside El Fasher (UNMIS) expires on 30 April. The Council is Security Council resolution 1593 which (north Darfur), from Muhajeriya (south Dar- expected to renew the mandate. referred the situation in Darfur to the ICC, fur) following fighting in January and urges all states and regional organisations A briefing and consultations are also February between the rebel group Justice to cooperate with the ICC. expected in April on the AU/UN Hybrid and Equality Movement (JEM) and the SAF. Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). Further dis- On 4 March the Council of the League of Arab In west Darfur, incidents of violence against cussions on the growing humanitarian crisis States expressed regret the Council had not UNAMID and banditry in 2009 have already are likely. However, it is unclear to what deferred ICC proceedings. On 5 March the exceeded numbers for all of 2008. In late extent these may be complicated as a result AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) February up to 5,000 Chadian rebels were of the indictment of Sudan’s President issued a communiqué appealing to the reportedly massing inside Sudan’s border, Omar al-Bashir by the International Criminal Security Council to defer ICC proceedings. Court (ICC). possibly in preparation for an attack on N’Djamena. On 9 March four UNAMID The Sudanese government expelled 13 A briefing by the Sudan sanctions Panel of peacekeepers were injured when attacked international NGOs, alleging they cooper- Experts, initially expected in March, may be near El Geneina, west Darfur. ated with the ICC. These organisations further postponed given the Panel’s current collectively handled 60 percent of humani- Attacks on aid workers and UNAMID staff, difficulties entering Sudan. tarian assistance in Darfur. Assets were carjacking and other banditry continued to confiscated and some aid workers report- An AU and Arab League delegation may increase across Darfur. On 17 March a edly harassed. UN agencies said it was not visit New York to lobby for deferral of the UNAMID peacekeeper was killed near possible, in any reasonable timeframe, to ICC proceedings. Nyala, south Darfur. Five aid workers from replace the capacity and expertise of the Médecins Sans Frontières were kidnapped Key Recent Developments expelled NGOs. Aid agencies in eastern in north Darfur on 12 March. On 25 March a In , at least 57 people (including Chad were reportedly planning for a poten- group of armed men, two in uniform, set fire 26 civilians) were killed in late February dur- tial influx of refugees from Darfur. to a makeshift displaced persons camp ing clashes between the northern Sudanese near El Geneina in west Darfur, killing two On 6 March the Office for Coordination of Armed Forces (SAF) and the Sudan People’s people and destroying hundreds of shel- Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) briefed the Liberation Movement (SPLM) in Malakal. In ters, according to UNAMID. Council stressing that the NGO expulsions early March around 400 were killed in heavy limit the provision of food, health care and tribal clashes in Jonglei State. On 4 March the pretrial chamber of the ICC safe drinking water to more than one million issued an arrest warrant against President Members of the Ugandan Lord’s Resistance people in Darfur. OCHA warned this could Omar al-Bashir for war crimes and crimes Army (LRA) continue to attack villages in lead to unrest in internally displaced per- against humanity in Darfur. Crimes of southern Sudan (and the Democratic sons (IDP) camps and that rebel movements genocide were not included due to insuffi- Republic of the Congo). More than 36,000 may take military action on behalf of the cient evidence. The Court said that his southern Sudanese have been displaced IDPs. Humanitarian operations in Abyei, status neither excludes his criminal respon- and 16,000 Congolese have fled to southern

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  Blue Nile State, southern Kordofan and ment to lead to a cessation of hostilities and institutional reforms. The National Elections eastern Sudan would also be affected. an end to the conflict within three months. Commission has approached the UN for OCHA noted the action of the government Days after the signing, however, the two sig- electoral assistance. contradicted previous undertakings to facil- natories clashed in northern Darfur, which On 10 February the Comprehensive Peace itate humanitarian assistance. On 20 and 26 resulted in deaths on both sides. Agreement’s (CPA) disarmament, demo- March the Council received further briefings bilisation and reintegration programme of from OCHA. Developments in the Sudan Sanctions Committee former combatants commenced in Blue On 24 March OCHA presented the results Nile State. One hundred and eighty thou- from a week-long UN and Sudanese joint On 10 March the chair of the Sudan sand fighters in the north and south are technical assessment mission in Darfur to Sanctions Committee briefed the Coun- expected to participate. gauge the humanitarian impact of the expul- cil, advising that the Panel of Experts had Key Issues sion of NGOs and assess the remaining not visited Sudan since their 12 month A key issue for the Council will continue to capacity to meet emergency needs for mandate was renewed on 15 October be the humanitarian situation in Sudan. food, health, water and emergency shelter. because the government had blocked There are also concerns that the region as a The report stressed that some 4.7 million an expert’s visa. The Council was told whole may further destabilise if the humani- people depended on humanitarian aid for the Chadian permanent representative tarian situation worsens. survival and concluded that while some to the UN had agreed to meet with the Committee on the latest report of the immediate gaps caused by the expulsion of The ICC arrest warrant is another issue. Panel of Experts. It seems the Sudanese the 13 humanitarian organisations have A related question is whether permanent representative is unwilling to been plugged by the remaining groups, is prepared to make changes on Darfur similarly do so. long term solutions were urgently needed. that several members of the Council have been demanding. The Secretary-General has repeatedly Children and Armed Conflict called on Sudan to reverse its decision to A further issue is the continued deteriora- According to the Secretary-General’s expel the humanitarian organisations. He tion in relations between Chad and Sudan report on children and armed conflict in said contact between senior UN officials and the rising tensions on their border. and ICC indictees would be limited to what the Sudan, released on 10 February, was necessary to facilitate UN activities children continue to be recruited and Another issue is the limited operational in Sudan. used by state and non-state parties in impact of UNAMID due in part to the contin- Sudan. Systematic and widespread ued absence of key military assets, shortfalls While several members expressed their rape and sexual violence continues. in logistical equipment and the lack of alarm over the humanitarian situation, the The report notes there has been no preparedness and equipment of troop con- Council could not reach a consensus on a major improvement compared to the tributing countries. presidential statement. But in a statement to last reporting period, especially regard- the press on 26 March Council members ing the recruitment and use of children, On north-south issues, a key question is took note of the joint report and appealed to rape and other sexual violence, killing whether peace can be sustained under the the government to reconsider its decision and maiming and the denial of humani- CPA. There are continued tensions and a regarding the humanitarian organisations. tarian access. potential for violence exists, especially related to the expected announcement of On 26 March, the Council received its first In early March the SPLM and the National the April 2008 census results, the physical briefing from Djibril Bassolé, the Joint AU- Congress Party (NCP) submitted final argu- demarcation of the border, the demarcation UN Chief Mediator for Darfur who took up ments to the Permanent Court of Arbitration of electoral constituency boundaries and the post in August. In a statement to the in The Hague regarding the boundaries of the decision of the Permanent Court of press the Council expressed its support for Abyei, a disputed area between the north Arbitration on Abyei’s boundaries. the mediator and the efforts of Qatar and and south. A final decision is expected late Another issue is the relevance of the sanc- encouraged the good offices of Libya and July. On 12 March the remaining SPLA tions regime given the difficulties faced by other states in the region. (Sudan People’s Liberation Army) and gov- the Panel of Experts in executing their ernment armed forces withdrew from the On 15 March five Darfur rebel groups mandate. agreed to participate in the Qatar-spon- Abyei roadmap area eight months after the sored Darfur peace talks in as a united deadline. Abyei’s administrative budget Options delegation with a common position. Abdul continues to be withheld by Khartoum. The most likely option is an extension of the mandate of UNMIS for a further 12 months. Wahid al-Nur (a key rebel leader given his Both the SPLM and the NCP seem to remain popularity among IDPs) continues to willing to hold elections in July despite Other options related to north-south issues oppose peace talks from his base in France. numerous outstanding problems. These include: On 17 February the government and JEM include agreeing on census results, demar- n encouraging troop contributors to provide signed the Agreement of Goodwill and Con- cating the north-south border, drawing the additional 600 troops recommended fidence-Building for the Settlement of the boundaries for voter constituencies, nomi- in October following review of UNMIS Problem in Darfur. The parties agreed to nating candidates, registering voters, voter military capabilities; work towards an early framework agree- education and implementing legal and n requesting more regular briefings by the

 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Secretariat on CPA implementation given UN Documents the number of outstanding CPA related tasks in 2009; and Selected Security Council Resolutions SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT n reemphasising the Council’s request in • S/RES/1828 (31 July 2008) renewed Monthly resolution 1812 of 2008 for the Secretary- UNAMID. General to provide an assessment and • S/RES/1812 (30 April 2008) renewed APR 2009FORECAST recommendations on measures UNMIS UNMIS. might take to further support elections • S/RES/1593 (31 March 2005) referred UNAMID: Duration and to advance the peace process. the situation in Darfur to the ICC. 31 July 2007 to present; mandate • S/RES/1591 (29 March 2005) and On Darfur, options include: expires 31 July 2009 S/RES/1556 (30 July 2004) imposed n adopting a formal decision about the sanctions. UNMIS: Special Representative of the humanitarian situation; Secretary-General and Head of Mission Selected Reports n holding an Arria-style meeting where key Ashraf Qazi (Pakistan) regional stakeholders, and those hosting • S/2009/84 (10 February 2009) was the UNMIS: Size, Composition and Cost figures key to the peace process, can latest report on children and armed brief the Council on their efforts to sup- conflict in Sudan. • Maximum authorised strength: port inclusive peace talks; • S/2009/83 (10 February 2009) was the up to 10,000 military and 715 n adopting a decision on the ICC warrant, latest UNAMID report. police personnel perhaps signalling a willingness to con- • S/2009/61 (30 January 2009) was the • Strength as of 28 February 2009: 8,724 sider a suspension provided that latest UNMIS report. troops, 567 observers and 669 police • Main troop contributors: benchmarks determined by the Council Selected Council Meeting Records are met; India, Pakistan and Bangladesh • S/PV.6079 (5 February 2009) was the n setting a timeframe for the investigation • Cost: 1 July 2008-30 June 2009: latest UNMIS briefing. on the 8 July attacks against UNAMID $858.77 million • S/PV.6054 (19 December 2008) was (about which the Council said it was UNMIS: Duration the latest open UNAMID briefing. determined to take action); 24 March 2005 to present; mandate Selected Letters n considering a package of targeted sanc- expires 30 April 2009 tions against peace spoilers, violators of • S/2009/144 (6 March 2009) was the international humanitarian law, and those AU PSC communiqué on the ICC arming Chadian rebels in Darfur; arrest warrant for President Al-Bashir. n requiring that Sudan cooperate with the • S/2009/100 (18 February 2009) was Israel/Palestine: Gaza Sanction Committee’s Panel of Experts; the Agreement of Goodwill and Confi- and dence-Building for the Settlement of Expected Council Action The Secretariat is expected to brief the n encouraging the AU to share its recom- the Problem in Darfur. Council on the conclusions of a UN com- mendations following its visit to the region Other in October and November 2008 on the mission of inquiry into the damage to UN • Report of the Joint Assessment Mission root causes of tension between Sudan facilities and loss of life during the recent to Darfur by the UN and the Govern- and Chad. conflict in Gaza. The Secretary-General ment of Sudan (23 March 2009) established the commission in February. Council Dynamics There seems to be broad willingness for the Other Relevant Facts It seems likely that in April the Council will also pay close attention to the Egyptian UNMIS mandate to be renewed. However, UNAMID: Joint AU-UN Special Represen- mediated talks between Hamas and Israel there are concerns that negotiations on the tative for Darfur resolution could be protracted due to Coun- on a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. This, Rodolphe Adada (Republic of Congo) cil divisions over the ICC arrest warrant along with the status of negotiations against al-Bashir. Joint AU-UN Chief Mediator among Palestinian factions for the forma- Djibrill Yipènè Bassolé () tion of a national unity government and The Council has been divided on Darfur other issues related to the stalled peace UNAMID: Size, Composition and Cost and has been unable to speak forcefully on process, may be aired during the monthly several issues including the military action • Maximum authorised strength: Middle East briefing. in February in Muhajeriya between the gov- up to 19,555 military personnel, ernment and JEM and the rapid deterioration 3,772 police and 19 formed police Key Recent Developments of the humanitarian situation following the units (total police 6432) During the Gaza conflict a number of UN expulsion of humanitarian groups. • Strength as of 28 February 2009: facilities were hit by Israeli shelling. On 15 12,604 military personnel and January the UN Relief and Works Agency It seems since the ICC indictment of al- 2,510 police for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) headquar- Bashir, positions within the Council on the • Main troop contributors: , ters was partially destroyed. On 6 January deferral of ICC action have become more , Egypt and at least forty people were killed in the entrenched. • Cost: 1 July 2008-30 June 2009: Jabaliya refugee camp by Israeli shelling $1.6 billion near a UN school that sheltered displaced

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  persons. In both cases Israel said that it had The factions agreed to hold elections by 25 hard line towards Arab citizens of Israel and come under mortar fire from Palestinian January 2010 but remained deadlocked Palestinians). On 24 March, the Labour militants from inside the UN facilities. This over the unity government. Resumption of party joined the coalition as well. was rejected by UNWRA. the talks is scheduled for 1 April. Palestinian On 27 January Under Secretary-General for Authority President and Fatah leader Mah- On 9 February the Secretary-General told Humanitarian Affairs John Holmes briefed moud Abbas made any power sharing the Council he had established a UN investi- the Council on the humanitarian situation agreement conditional on Hamas’s recog- gation into all incidents involving death and after the Gaza conflict. The use of civilian nition of Israel and agreement to a two-state damage at UN premises in Gaza between installations by Hamas and the indiscrimi- solution, but this was rejected by Hamas. 27 December and 18 January. He said that nate firing of rockets against civilians were The next Arab League summit scheduled in he would report to the Council but later clar- clear violations of international humanitarian Doha on 30 March may provide an opportu- ified that this would involve a briefing on the law, he said. Holmes also said that the Israeli nity for further progress. investigation’s conclusions. The investiga- Defense Forces had failed to protect civil- tion, led by Special Representative of the Egypt also continued to mediate talks ians and humanitarian workers in Gaza. In Secretary-General Ian Martin, began work between Hamas and Israel aimed at a per- addition, Israel’s operations raised ques- on 12 February. On 13 February the presi- manent truce. Outgoing Israeli Prime tions of respect for the principles of dent of the Council said members welcomed Minister Ehud Olmert made freeing Gilad distinction and proportionality. He said there establishment of the investigation and took Shalit (an Israeli soldier held by Hamas must be accountability. This was followed note of the Secretary-General’s intention to since 2006) a precondition for the truce and by a briefing from UNRWA Commissioner- report its conclusions to the Council. for reopening Gaza’s borders. In exchange, General Karen Koning AbuZayd. Hamas demanded the release of 450 long Israel also launched an internal investiga- Options serving Palestinian prisoners. At press time tion into possible humanitarian law In response to the conclusions of the UN talks appeared stalled. violations by its army during the war. On 19 investigation, possible Council options March Israeli newspapers published On 13 March, after a meeting of experts in include: accounts by Israeli soldiers alleging mis- London, the UK, the US, Canada Denmark, n remaining silent; treatment of Palestinian civilians. France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands n issuing a press statement taking note of and Norway agreed on a programme of the conclusions; On 16 March a group of eminent interna- action to stop the flow of weapons to Gaza. n adopting a presidential statement sup- tional judges and investigators called on The measure is aimed at increasing Israel’s porting any recommendations made by the Secretary-General to establish a UN sense of security and thus persuading it to the Secretary-General; commission of inquiry to investigate all seri- ease its blockade of Gaza. n holding a debate on this issue either fol- ous violations of international humanitarian lowing the briefing or during the April law committed by all parties to the conflict On 29 January the UN launched an appeal monthly briefing on the Middle East; and provide recommendations on prosecu- for $613 million for Gaza’s relief and recon- n initiating discussions on the establish- tion of those responsible. They emphasised struction. On 2 March an international ment of a commission of investigation that this was necessary to achieve peace in donors’ conference on reconstruction in into serious violations of international the Middle East. Gaza was held in Sharm el-Sheikh. $4.48 humanitarian law committed during the billion was pledged, to be paid over the next After recognising the jurisdiction of the conflict; and two years. The Secretary-General said the International Criminal Court on 21 January, n referring the issues to the ICC as it did in continued closure of Gaza’s border cross- the Palestinian Authority requested it to March 2005 in resolution 1593 when it ings was intolerable as it prevented entry of investigate war crimes by all sides during referred the Darfur situation to the ICC. aid workers and essential commodities. the conflict. The ICC is examining whether it Israel has progressively opened the cross- If there are positive developments on a per- can accept this request in view of the fact ings for humanitarian supplies but still manent ceasefire or on the formation of a that the Palestinian Authority is not a state refuses reconstruction material to enter. Palestinian unity government, the Council party to the ICC. could include positive elements in any On 18 February the UN Special Coordinator Efforts toward Palestinian unity continue. Council statement. Alternatively a statement for the Middle East Peace Process, Robert On 26 February, 13 Palestinian groups could simply encourage further implemen- Serry, briefed the Council on the situation in including Hamas and Fatah agreed to form tation of resolution 1860 (please see our 26 the Middle East. He emphasised the need five committees to address the composi- January Update Report on Gaza). for a permanent Gaza ceasefire as a return tion of security services in Gaza and to violence remained possible. Key Issues the West Bank, the formation of a unity A key question is the Secretary-General’s government (which would prepare for par- Following the 10 February parliamentary stance on whether the Council should take liamentary and presidential elections and election in Israel, President Shimon Peres up the Gaza accountability issues and lead the reconstruction and humanitarian asked the leader of the opposition Likud whether he takes a narrow approach or also aid efforts), reform of the Palestine Libera- party, Benjamin Netanyahu, to form a new touches on the broader issue of war crimes tion Organisation, the holding of elections, government. On 15 March he obtained committed during the conflict. and reconciliation. On 10 March the com- agreement from the Israel Beitenou party to mittees began work in . join in a coalition government (led by Avig- The second issue is then whether the Coun- dor Lieberman, Israel Beitenou has taken a cil takes up the question and whether there

 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org is pressure for it to extend its ambit beyond that as Israel is conducting an investigation the Secretary-General’s conclusions. there is no need for another one. Russia and China seem open to discussion of account- SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT A major underlying issue is whether there ability, particularly regarding the damage to will be progress on the formation of a Pales- Monthly UN facilities but seem unlikely to take any tinian national unity government. This would initiative in the Council. APR 2009 not only facilitate reconstruction and enable FORECAST Egypt and Israel to open their borders with The Arab League supports the Council Useful Additional Sources Gaza with a Palestinian Authority presence addressing accountability for Israeli viola- n Gaza: World’s leading investigators call on the Gaza side, but also it would enable tions. This may translate into proposals for for war crimes inquiry, Amnesty Interna- the Council to focus on positive elements in a Council reaction to the UN inquiry and tional UK Press Release, 16 March 2009 addition to accountability ones. perhaps even discussion about the broader n Final communiqué of the Gaza anti- issue of war crimes. If this meets US resis- A related issue is Hamas’s status in any smuggling conference held in London on tance, the Arab League could look for such unity government. On 27 February US 13 March compromise—perhaps in an agreed format Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that n Foreign-supplied weapons used against for a Council debate on the issues which reconciliation will not mean progress unless civilians by Israel and Hamas, Amnesty would allow the problem to be ventilated in Hamas accepts Israel’s right to exist and International, 20 February 2009 public. Alternatively, it may take it to the previous peace agreements. The position General Assembly. It seems that the Arab of the Council if Hamas joins the govern- Group has also advocated for the UN inquiry ment without fulfilling those conditions will report to become public. be an important issue. Children and Armed Conflict Overall, most Council members are wait- Expected Council Action Council Dynamics ing for the Secretariat briefing before The Council will discuss children and armed US Middle East Envoy George Mitchell and deciding their positions on the possible conflict in an open debate on 29 April. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton both visited Council response. The foreign minister of Mexico, Patricia the region in March. Clinton reiterated the Espinoza, is expected to preside. need to consider a two-state solution and On the broader issues related to Gaza, pledged support for the Palestinian Author- there is ongoing support for full implemen- Members will focus on the Secretary- ity as the only legitimate government of the tation of resolution 1860. Palestinian unity General’s progress report on the Palestinian people. She also denounced an and permanent truce are considered implementation of resolution 1612, which in Israeli plan to destroy Palestinian houses in priorities. For more information on the 2005 established the monitoring and report- East Jerusalem, saying it went against the Security Council’s involvement in the Mid- ing mechanism and set up the Working peace process. The US also pledged $900 dle East peace process, please visit our Group on Children and Armed Conflict. million to Gaza’s reconstruction and made December 2007 Special Research Report overtures toward Syria. The US continues to The Middle East 1947–2007: Sixty Years of A presidential statement is a likely outcome consider the Quartet as the most effective Security Council Engagement on the Israel/ of the debate with possibly a commitment instrument for advancing peace in the Mid- Palestine Question. to start work on a new resolution for later in dle East but may be more open to some the year. Selected UN Documents discussion of Israeli-Palestinian issues in the Security Council Report will publish its Council as part of this more generally proac- Security Council Resolutions second Cross-Cutting Report on Children tive approach. It remains to be seen how • S/RES/1860 (8 January 2009) called and Armed Conflict in April in preparation any request for a debate will play out. for an immediate, durable and fully for the debate. respected ceasefire, leading to the full Council members seem very cautious Key Recent Developments withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza regarding the general issue of accountabil- The Secretary-General’s report is expected and condemned violence against ity. Some delegations (Mexico and Austria) to be circulated in mid April with the latest civilians and acts of terrorism. have made statements emphasising list of parties that recruit or use children in • S/RES/1850 (16 December 2008) respect for humanitarian law and address- armed conflict in the two annexes. Annex I declared Council support for the ing impunity and may therefore be open to is made up of situations on the Council’s Annapolis peace process and its a Council follow-up to the UN Inquiry, formal agenda and Annex II are those commitment to the irreversibility of although they may not take the initiative. situations that are not on the Council’s bilateral negotiations. Others including France, the UK, Japan, agenda. Possible recommendations Turkey and seem to believe that, Latest Security Council Press Statement include the following. while accountability is important, it might • SC/9580 (21 January 2009) empha- n Expanding the criteria for inclusion of not be timely to address this issue as it sised the need for full implementation parties in the two annexes to include par- might hamper Palestinian reconciliation. of resolution 1860. ties committing rape and other grave The US seems ultra cautious, preferring that Latest Security Council Briefings sexual violence, with the possibility for further expansion in the future. There are the Council not address this issue and that • S/PV.6084 (18 February 2009) six violations considered grievous for the Secretary-General be hesitant about • S/PV.6077 (27 January 2009) making recommendations. The US believes

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  children in situations of armed conflict is seen by many observers as significant in Secretariat support for the Working (recruiting and use of child soldiers, kill- demonstrating that the use of children in Group, keeping in mind the need for ing and maiming of children, rape and armed conflict is a war crime that can be transparency and institutional memory. other grave sexual violence against chil- prosecuted at the international level. The adoption of a resolution is less likely in dren, illicit exploitation of natural On 17 July 2008, the Council held an open April but in the event that a decision is taken resources, abduction of children and debate initiated by Vietnam. The presiden- to work on a range of new measures for denial of humanitarian access to chil- tial statement following the debate adoption late in 2009, the following are dren). However, only recruitment of reiterated the need for a stronger focus on possible options. children is used in assessing if a group the long-term effects of armed conflict on should be placed on the Secretary- Options for the Council include: children and encouraged the Working General’s annexes. n leaving the monitoring and reporting Group to further improve transparency and n Giving more attention to situations in the mechanism as is for a further period; efficiency. Unlike the previous presidential Secretary-General’s report which are not n requesting the Secretary-General to pro- statement of February 2008, there was no in his annexes (i.e. situations of conflict vide an indicative assessment of how reference to persistent violators, the need where there are violations against chil- many new groups would be placed on for time-bound action plans or reviewing dren but no child recruitment. In the 2007 the annexes of the Secretary-General’s provisions of its resolutions. report, this included Iraq, Haiti, Lebanon report if the criteria are expanded to and the Occupied Palestinian Territories In January Mexico became the new chair of include some or all six major violations; and Israel). the Working Group when France, which had n deciding to add some additional viola- n Suggesting that all relevant peacekeep- been instrumental in setting up the Working tions which could be used as triggers for ing mission mandates include child Group, stepped down after three years. inclusion in the Secretary-General’s protection provisions and child protec- annexes but leaving the other violations Options tion advisers. for consideration at a later time; The most likely option in April is a presiden- n Reinforcing the need for parties listed in n deciding to formally evaluate the work of tial statement reaffirming the Council’s the annexes to respond to demands for the monitoring and reporting mechanism commitment to addressing the impact of concrete time-bound action plans. at regular intervals; and armed conflict on children and to imple- n requesting the Secretary-General to con- Resolution 1612, adopted in July 2005, menting 1612. Possible elements include: sider how the Secretariat could provide established a monitoring and reporting n committing to working on a new greater support for the Working Group, mechanism to collect, organise and verify resolution; keeping in mind the need for transpar- information on violations against children in n demanding that persistent violators com- ency and institutional memory. armed conflict and on progress made by ply with all demands to stop recruitment parties in the Secretary-General’s annexes and release children (special mention Options for the Working Group and the in complying with international norms on could be made of groups like the Lord’s reporting by the Secretary-General include children and armed conflict. The monitoring Resistance Army (LRA), which has the following. and reporting mechanism has now been ignored several public statements, and n Request the Secretariat to provide the established in all conflicts listed in Annex I: the government of Nepal, which has Working Group with a monthly table Afghanistan, , Central African pledged but failed to release and reha- which updates responses to and imple- Republic, Democratic Republic of the bilitate minors being held in Maoist mentation of action requested by the Congo (DRC), Myanmar, Nepal, Somalia, cantonments); and Working Group. and southern Sudan and Darfur (consid- n emphasising the need for groups to n Decide to issue all Working Group ered together); and the five Annex II deliver and implement time-bound action correspondence, including follow-up cor- situations (those not on the Council’s plans as soon as possible. respondence, as UN documents (under agenda): Chad, Colombia, Philippines, Sri the S/AC.51 document heading) in order Other possible elements may be: Lanka and Uganda. to create an institutional memory and n asking the Secretary-General to esti- promote transparency. The Working Group also set up by resolu- mate how many more situations would n Develop other possibilities for putting tion 1612 has, since its establishment in come onto the Council if more violations pressure on persistent violators in addi- November 2005, considered 24 reports and were used to trigger the listing of a party tion to the threat of targeted sanctions. adopted 21 conclusions. However, there is in the annexes; One possible example is recommending an increasing time lag between considering n suggesting a review of the impact of the that the Council refer cases to the ICC. reports and issuing conclusions. recommendations of the Working Group On a case by case basis this possibility to assess the most effective tools used; The trial of Thomas Lubanga, leader of the could be referred to in letters to parties or n discussing lessons learned from the Union of Congolese Patriots (Union des press statements. Another possibility for implementation of 1612 over the last patriots congolais, or UPC) from DRC and intensifying leverage on persistent viola- three years; and the first individual to be charged solely for tors would be to consider a visit of the n requesting the Secretary-General to the conscription and use of children under Working Group (or a subgroup) to such provide recommendations for better the age of 15, began on 26 January. This trial situations on the annexes.

 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org n Request the Secretary-General to estab- n Ensure input to the Council’s terms of ref- lish a focal point for children and armed erence ahead of Council visiting missions conflict in the Department of Political so that the Council can focus on possible SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Affairs with responsibility for a closer follow-ups to Working Group recommen- Monthly working relationship with those involved dations when visiting countries that are in peace negotiations to ensure that there on the Secretary-General’s annexes. APR 2009FORECAST are strong provisions on child soldiers in Options regarding Annex II situations follow. all relevant peace agreements. Also an issue is how to respond to fast n The Council could signal in a new resolu- n Develop innovative and systematic sys- changing situations. The November 2008 tion that it is willing, on a case by case tems for ensuring that the conclusions of DRC report discussed in January 2009 was basis, to consider recommendations the Working Group and any Council deci- outdated given the escalation of violence in from the Working Group on targeted sions are effectively disseminated to all eastern DRC at the end of 2008. measures in situations not on the Coun- parties included in the Secretary-General’s cil’s agenda. annexes. This could include specific A connected question is whether better n Signalling that if targeted measures were requests to relevant Special Representa- communications can be developed applied in Annex II situations, the man- tives, Special Envoys and UN agencies between the Working Group and sanctions date of the Working Group could be with effective field presences in the coun- committees in country situations in Annex I expanded to allow it to identify individuals tries in question and to UN member such as the Sudan, DRC and Somalia. for targeted measures and to oversee states or NGOs actually engaged in rel- implementation of such measures. Another issue is ensuring that a new resolu- evant mediation processes. tion enhances resolution 1612 and does n Requesting the Security Council to pro- n Adjust the work programme of the Work- vide the Working Group with a more not hamper the functioning of either the ing Group to respond to a fast changing formal Secretariat assistance for reports monitoring and reporting mechanism or the situation such as, for example, the dete- and meeting arrangements. Working Group. rioration in the DRC at the end of 2008. In that case, by the time the DRC report was Key Issues Further issues include getting more groups issued in January, much of the informa- A key issue is whether the Council should to agree and implement action plans (for- tion was out of date. One possibility more actively reinforce the efforts of the mal action plans have only been signed would be to agree that the chair may con- Working Group in country-specific situa- with the four parties in Côte d’Ivoire, the vene Working Group meetings at short tions. In Nepal, for example, the issue of Uganda People’s Defence Forces, and the notice in such situations. Another may be former Maoist combatants recruited as TMVP/Karuna faction in Sri Lanka) and to agree to targeted briefings from NGOs minors, and still remaining in the canton- keeping track of documents over the years (in the past, a key avenue for such brief- ments, is key for the UN Mission in Nepal and maintaining an institutional memory ings was the Arria formula and between (UNMIN). This is also an issue that concerns now that the chair is likely to rotate every 2000 and 2008 a majority of Council open the Working Group. By using information two years. debates on children and armed conflict obtained from the Secretary-General’s report A future issue, if there is agreement to were preceded by an Arria briefing). on children and armed conflict in Nepal, the start negotiating a resolution, is finding n Establish a systematic channel of com- Council may be able to address this issue consensus on how to expand the trigger munication between the Working Group more forcibly when considering the report of for including parties in the Secretary- and existing sanctions committees for the Secretary-General on UNMIN. General’s annexes. situations being considered by the Work- ing Group that have a sanctions regime Another issue is the impact of the Working Council Dynamics (i.e. DRC, Somalia, Sudan). This could be Group chair rather than the Council presi- Many feel 2008 was a difficult year for the done by requesting the chair to be active dent carrying out recommendations Working Group on Children and Armed in this regard. involving communication with non-state Conflict. A lack of consensus over conclu- n Review the working methods and output actors, and sometimes with governments. sions on Myanmar and divisions on the of the Working Group to ensure that the This has been an increasing trend. Working Group’s working methods slowed Group is functioning as effectively as pos- A significant issue for the Working Group is consideration of reports and adopting con- sible. Among the possible areas for how to ensure that parties recruiting chil- clusions in the first half of the year. However, consideration would be whether to dren continue to respond to its requests. by the end of the year it had appeared to be change the format of the conclusions and back on track, issuing four conclusions in whether there is a need to develop a Related is how to get agreement on using December 2008. mechanism to take up fast changing stronger action against persistent violators. The current composition of the Council, situations ahead of more stable ones. (The Secretary-General’s 2007 report high- with several new members keen on the- n Increase dialogue with governments lighted 16 groups that have been on the matic issues, suggests a productive that have parties listed in the Secretary- Secretary-General’s annexes for four con- dynamic in the Working Group this year. General’s annexes that are active within secutive reports.) With some members However, some old divisions may still pro- their national territories, perhaps mandat- opposing targeted sanctions, an alternative duce delays. In the last two months ing the chair to be active in this regard. form of pressure may be needed. disagreement between the US and Russia

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  over language on killing and maiming of • S/2009/66 (3 February 2009) was the Somalia children in Afghanistan has delayed issu- report of the Secretary-General on ing conclusions on that country. The children and armed conflict in the Expected Council Action decision to proceed with a resolution is Central African Republic. The Secretary-General is due to report by likely to see past differences resurface. For • S/2008/782 (12 December 2008) 15 April on a possible UN peacekeeping example, in considering an expansion of was the report of the Security Council deployment to Somalia as requested by the trigger for placement on the Secretary- mission to Afghanistan from 21 to 28 resolution 1863. The Council has signaled General’s annexes, some members may November 2008. that it wants to decide by 1 June whether to be comfortable with new criteria such as • S/2008/693 (10 November 2008) authorise such a deployment to replace the sexual violence. But others like Russia and was the report of the Secretary- AU Mission to Somalia (AMISOM). Substan- China seem unwilling to have the sexual General on children and armed tive negotiations on the Secretary-General’s violence criteria without also adding killing conflict in the DRC. recommendations are also likely to be influ- and maiming. • S/2008/695 (10 November 2008) was enced by developments on the ground and are unlikely to start until May, but a briefing Lack of consensus over the kinds of stron- the report of the Secretary-General in April is a possibility. ger action that might be employed against on children and armed conflict in persistent violators is also likely to prove Afghanistan. Key Recent Developments divisive given opposition to using targeted • S/2008/532 (7 August 2008) was the Following two days of intense fighting that sanctions among some members, particu- report of the Secretary-General on reportedly killed more than fifty people in larly China. But also it may provoke some children and armed conflict in Chad. , the Council issued a press innovative thinking. Security Council Debate Records statement on 25 February calling on all Somalis to reject violence. It also con- Among the new members, Mexico as chair • S/PV.5936 and resumption 1 demned the 22 February attack on AMISOM, is likely to play a key role in shaping the (17 July 2008) which killed 11 Burundian peacekeepers. issue over the next two years. Uganda will • S/PV.5834 (12 February 2008) be the first Council member to have an Conclusions of the Security Council On 26-27 February the new Somali foreign armed group which originated in its territory Working Group minister, Mohamed Abdullahi Omaar, being considered and its input will be very • S/AC.51/2008/15 (5 December 2008) attended a meeting in Brussels of the Inter- important when the Working Group next were the conclusions on Chad. national Contact Group on Somalia chaired discusses the LRA. France, now that it is no • S/AC.51/2008/14 (5 December 2008) by the Secretary-General’s Special Repre- longer chair, may be able to more easily were the conclusions on Somalia. sentative Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah. On 26 deploy its extensive knowledge in helping • S/AC.51/2008/13 (5 December 2008) February Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke, to negotiate a new resolution. were the conclusions on Uganda. the new Somali prime minister, arrived in • S/AC.51/2008/12 (5 December 2008) Mogadishu for the first time since his UN Documents were the conclusions on Nepal. appointment on 13 February. On 12 March Selected Security Council Resolution • S/AC.51/2008/11 (21 October 2008) the Somali parliament held its first meeting were the conclusions on Sri Lanka. • S/RES/1612 (26 July 2005) requested in Mogadishu after relocating from Djibouti • S/AC.51/2008/10 (3 October 2008) the Secretary-General implement a with 298 parliamentarians reportedly were the conclusions on the monitoring and reporting mechanism in attendance. Philippines. and set up a working group on • S/AC.51/2008/8 (25 July 2008) were On 10 March the Somali cabinet unani- children and armed conflict. the conclusions on Myanmar. mously decided to implement Islamic law. Selected Presidential Statements The decision was seen as an attempt to limit Selected Letter • S/PRST/2008/28 (17 July 2008) reiter- the influence of the insurgents. However, • S/2008/455 (11 July 2008) was the ated the need for stronger focus by all the Islamist insurgent group Al-Shabaab letter on the Working Group’s activities parties concerned on the long-term seems to have rejected it as hypocritical. from 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2008. effects of armed conflict on children. The leader of a recently formed insurgent • SPRST/2008/6 (12 February 2008) Other group Hisbi Islam, Omar Iman, said in a reaffirmed the Council’s commitment • S/2006/275 (2 May 2006) set out the statement on 8 March that his group did not to address the impact of armed con- terms of reference for the Working recognise the new government and would flict on children and expressed its Group on Children and Armed Conflict. continue attacks against AMISOM. On 19 readiness to review past resolutions • A/63/227 (6 August 2008) was the March an audio recording published on the and build on the resolution of 1612. latest report by the Special Represen- internet claiming to be from Usama bin Laden attacked the new president, accus- Selected Reports tative to the Secretary-General on Children and Armed Conflict. ing him of cooperating with the infidels. • S/2009/84 (10 February 2009) was Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys, leader of the the report of the Secretary-General Eritrea-based faction of the Alliance for the on children and armed conflict in Reliberation of Somalia (ARS), reportedly the Sudan. distanced himself from the Al-Qaida

10 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org message, saying that Somalis themselves on land in Somalia. He recommended must decide on their future. effective implementation and possibly strengthening of existing legal frameworks, SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed on 8 including targeted sanctions against key March embarked on a round of official visits Monthly pirate leaders, as well as capacity building to countries in the region. He first went to assistance to states in the region. The APR 2009 Kenya and then visited Uganda, Burundi FORECAST report recommended the UN’s role should and Rwanda. In an interview in he not be expanded beyond the current infor- said that peace talks mediated by clan mation coordination and liaison role. Somali institutions have the capacity to pro- elders were progressing and that he hoped vide security for the Djibouti peace process soon to meet directly with Al-Shabaab and In a meeting on 20 March the Council was and for the UN Political Office for Somalia other opponents. He dismissed last month’s briefed by the Secretary-General’s Special (UNPOS) to relocate to Mogadishu and call from clan elders and clerics for AMISOM Representative for Somalia Ould-Abdallah, also allow humanitarians to operate. to leave. In Burundi, President Pierre Nku- who said Somalia was “back from the brink” runziza promised that his country would and outlined six immediate priorities: sup- Some key elements of the strategy are still contribute additional troops to AMISOM, porting the government, strengthening not in place. The General Assembly is but said requirements were still being dis- AMISOM, providing humanitarian assis- expected to approve the first part of the UN cussed with the UN and AU. tance, implementing targeted sanctions, funding (approximately $81 million) for fighting impunity and consolidating antipi- AMISOM by the end of March but it will take On 11 March the AU Peace and Security racy efforts. Somali Foreign Minister Omaar more time before the full support package Council extended AMISOM’s mandate for also spoke, striking a positive note, and said is deployed. The level of bilateral support is three months from 17 March. There were there were no more warlords or political fac- still unclear as the donors’ conference has renewed calls from clan elders in Mogadi- tions holding the country hostage. The yet to take place. It is now planned for 22 shu as well as some parliamentarians for government’s first actions, he said, included April in Brussels. The strategy also depends AMISOM to leave within 120 days from relocating government institutions to Moga- on African countries’ willingness to contrib- 1 March. dishu, establishing joint security forces, ute troops to AMISOM. The Secretary-General’s 9 March report wel- mobilising support for the peace process, The longer term issue is whether to pursue comed President Ahmed’s willingness to reestablishing authority in the economic a UN peacekeeping operation. The Secretary- reach out to groups opposed to the Djibouti sector and dialogue with regional parties General’s 9 March report signaled that he process and called on donors to provide and neighbouring countries. Going forward, was not convinced that UN peacekeeping resources to help bring stability to Somalia. the government’s main priorities would be would be “the right tool”. It remains to be It expressed deep concern about the human security stabilisation, which would require seen whether developments will affect his rights situation and welcomed agreement strengthening of AMISOM and Somali secu- conclusions in the April report. under the Djibouti process on a working rity forces, government capacity building, group to discuss establishing a commission humanitarian assistance and counter-piracy A related issue is that mid April will be too of inquiry to investigate violations. measures. A UN peacekeeping operation early to see results from reconciliation talks would be welcomed, Omaar said, while and the support package for AMISOM and The report also included an update on sup- many of the conditions outlined by the Somali security forces will barely have been port to AMISOM and Somali security Secretary-General had already been met. approved, let alone deployed. institutions, as well as contingency plan- ning for possible deployment of a UN The EU announced it was ready to provide A third issue is that it is still far from clear peacekeeping operation. It concluded that naval protection for deliveries to AMISOM in whether Somalis themselves really want “there remains uncertainty about whether response to a request from the Secretary- international forces in their country. A peacekeeping is the right tool to back the General. closely related issue is whether AU would political process in Somalia”. Several key be willing to extend AMISOM’s mandate After the meeting the Council issued a press conditions must be met for a peacekeeping beyond June. statement welcoming positive political operation to be effective, including forma- developments, calling on all Somalis to join In addition to assessing whether condi- tion of a government inclusive of elements the peace process and condemning the 18 tions in Somalia are ripe for UN currently outside the Djibouti process, March attacks on AMISOM that killed one peacekeeping, the Secretary-General is operation of joint security forces in Mogadi- Ugandan peacekeeper. expected to report in April on other options shu, implementation of a credible ceasefire, to enhance security. consent to the deployment by all major par- Key Issues ties and adequate pledges of troops and A key issue is ensuring implementation of Options military capacities. and providing adequate support for the cur- The Council is not expected to take any rent UN strategy for Somalia. This strategy action in April. One possible option is a On 16 March the Secretary-General includes support for AMISOM and Somali briefing by the Under Secretary-General reported on piracy, noting that the issue security institutions and support for the gov- for Peacekeeping Operations, Alain Le could be resolved only through an inte- ernment and the political process as well as Roy, once the Secretary-General’s report grated approach addressing the situation activities of the UN country team. A key is available. objective is to ensure that AMISOM and

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 11 Council Dynamics • S/RES/1851 (16 December 2008) Other Relevant Facts Council members appear cautiously opti- expanded the anti-piracy authorisation mistic about political developments but Special Representative of the to include action on land in Somalia Secretary-General are still very concerned about the underly- and called for enhanced coordination. Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah () ing security and humanitarian situation, • S/RES/1846 (2 December 2008) including violations of international human- renewed authorisation of action UNPOS itarian law. There is also a focus by some against piracy in Somalia for 12 • Maximum authorised size: on the problem of impunity. Members months. 44 international and 28 local civilians seem agreed that a comprehensive • S/RES/1844 (20 November 2008) • Cost: $6.4 million (budget for the approach is needed to support the new imposed targeted sanctions. period 1 January to 30 June 2009) government, as outlined by Ould-Abdallah • S/RES/1838 (7 October 2008) called • Duration: 15 April 1995 to present; in his briefing, but differences on the details for intensified action against piracy mandate expires on 31 December remain substantial. in Somalia. 2009 Members are not staking out positions in Selected Presidential Statement Chairman of the Somalia Sanctions Committee advance on the question of a UN peace- • S/PRST/2008/33 (4 September 2008) keeping force. There is a strong preference requested detailed planning on an Claude Heller (Mexico) to see the Secretary-General’s April report international stabilisation force and AMISOM and to closely watch developments in peacekeeping operation. • Maximum authorised strength: Somalia. US policy is still under review, but Selected Secretary-General’s Reports 8,000 troops plus maritime and air it is now widely expected that the US will be components. less focused on military solutions driven by • S/2009/146 (16 March 2009) was the • Strength as of March 2009: about counterterrorism agendas. African mem- report on piracy submitted pursuant 3,450 Ugandan and Burundian troops bers still, overall, seem supportive of the AU to resolution 1846. (before expected deployment of one position on a UN force replacing the • S/2009/132 (9 March 2009) was the additional Ugandan battalion at the AMISOM contingent. But they are less vocal most recent regular report. end of March). than in 2008 when South Africa champi- • S/2009/60 (30 January 2009) was the • Key resource contributors: China, Italy, oned this solution. report requested by resolution 1863 on equipment and services to be Japan, Sweden, the UK, the US and Most members seem to want to see more provided to AMISOM. the EU and Arab League. political progress and improvement in the • Duration: February 2007 to present: Latest Monitoring Group’s Report security situation and appear skeptical that AU mandate expires on 17 June 2009 the benchmarks set out in the Secretary- • S/2008/769 (10 December 2008) and Council authorisation expires on General’s latest report will be met by the Other 16 July 2009. Council’s self-imposed 1 June deadline. • SC/9621 (20 March 2009) was a African members, however, are keen that press statement welcoming political the benchmarks not be interpreted too progress in Somalia and condemning strictly nor be used as an excuse to not Democratic Republic of attacks on AMISOM. the Congo establish a peacekeeping operation. A • S/2009/136 (6 March 2009) was a majority seem to be looking for real prog- letter from the Secretary-General Expected Council Action ress on the ground with the AMISOM informing the Council of the appoint- In April the Council is expected to consider support package before considering transi- ment of four experts to the Monitoring the Secretary-General’s report on the Dem- tion to a UN operation. Group. A fifth expert is yet to be ocratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and appointed. the UN Mission in the DRC (MONUC), due UN Documents • SC/9600 (25 February 2009) was a on 31 March. The mandate of MONUC Selected Security Council Resolutions press statement condemning the 22 expires on 31 December. February attack on AMISOM. • S/RES/1863 (16 January 2009) Key Recent Developments renewed authorisation of AMISOM for • S/2009/80 (4 February 2009) was The situation, particularly in the eastern and up to six months, approved using UN a letter from the US informing the northeastern regions, continues to be tense. resources to strengthen AMISOM and Council about the first meeting of the The DRC government’s joint military opera- expressed the Council’s intention to contact group on piracy off the coast tion with Uganda against the rebel Lord’s establish a UN peacekeeping opera- of Somalia. Resistance Army (LRA) in northeastern tion by 1 June 2009. DRC has ended. The joint action with • S/RES/1853 (19 December 2008) Rwanda against the rebel Democratic renewed the mandate of the Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (Forces Monitoring Group for 12 months. démocratiques de libération du Rwanda or FDLR) in eastern DRC has also ended. Rwandan troops withdrew at the end of February, and the Ugandan army com- menced withdrawal on 16 March.

12 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org In mid March MONUC indicated that prog- On 17 February the Council was briefed on ress was continuing in the voluntary the humanitarian situation in the DRC by repatriation of former FDLR combatants Under Secretary-General for Humanitarian SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT and dependents, with more than 1,430 Affairs John Holmes. Subsequently, the Monthly Rwandan rebels and their dependents hav- president of the Council briefed the press ing been sent home since January. This on the Council’s concerns on the humani- APR 2009FORECAST brought to a total of more than 5,700 Rwan- tarian situation in the eastern parts of the dan ex-combatants and civilians who had DRC, the priority being the protection of returned to Rwanda from northeastern DRC civilians. The Council president condemned Another issue is whether the Council will with UN assistance in recent months. brutal attacks by the LRA and called on gov- put additional political weight behind the ernments to cooperate with MONUC UN’s efforts to generate additional troops On 5 March former Mai Mai militia com- planning and executing joint operations. with requisite logistical support to reinforce mander Gédéon Kyungu Mutanga and the capacity of MONUC to take rapid action twenty other Mai Mai combatants were con- On 19 February the Secretary-General to protect civilians. This is a measure that victed by a Congolese military court of wrote to the Council to inform it about a the Council authorised in November. Firm crimes including those against humanity. revised concept of operations and rules of pledges have reportedly been made by The court also ruled that the DRC govern- engagement for MONUC. Bangladesh, Egypt and Jordan to provide ment had civil liability for its failure to disarm troops, and Belgium has offered one C-130 Key Issues the Mai Mai and awarded damages to vic- aircraft to MONUC. However, no additional The key issue for Council members is tims. (Mutanga was the head of the Mai Mai troops have been sent to the field, and the whether recent developments are likely to militia that perpetrated brutal crimes in cen- failure to commit outstanding air assets (18 improve security in the eastern and north- tral Katanga, an area that became known as utility helicopters and an additional C-130 eastern parts of the country. “the death triangle”.) aircraft) threatens to undermine the The issue of civilian protection remains intended mobility and rapid reaction On 23 March the Congolese government strongly in Council members’ minds in light capacity of the mission. and the rebel National Congress for the of the violence of late 2008 and in the wake Defence of the People (Congrés national Options of DRC’s joint military operations with pour la defense du peuple or CNDP) signed Options before the Council include: Rwanda against the FDLR and Uganda a key political and security agreement in n strongly encouraging member states to against the LRA. There are questions Goma. (The government and CNDP have urgently provide the additional capacities whether the joint military operations been engaged in negotiations to end hos- required by MONUC; achieved the goals of containing the tilities and set up a joint security programme n addressing the humanitarian situation respective rebel movements. The joint in the Kivus for the past few months.) The and reiterating the need for continued operation between the DRC and Rwanda Secretary-General’s Special Representa- cooperation between MONUC and the seems to have achieved its initial goal of tive for the DRC, Alan Doss, and the DRC army in curbing rebel activity in the dislodging the FDLR from its bases, but Secretary-General’s Special Envoy on the country; and there are concerns that the departure of Great Lakes Region, former Nigerian Presi- n the DRC Sanctions Committee adding Rwandan troops was premature and may dent Olusegun Obansanjo, and his AU individuals and entities to its sanctions have created a security vacuum that will be counterpart, Benjamin Mkapa, were pres- list in the light of ongoing reports of exploited by the FDLR. The FDLR was ent in Goma for the signing ceremony. atrocities. reported to have launched new attacks On 3 March the Council’s DRC Sanctions against civilians and government positions Council Dynamics Committee added four individuals to its travel in March. Efforts are reportedly underway Council dynamics seem to suggest a perva- ban and assets freeze list: Callixte Mbarushi- for a joint operation between the DRC mili- sive wait and see attitude. Members appear mana, Stanislas Nzeyimana, Pacifique tary and MONUC (Operation Kimia II) to inclined to monitor developments and shape Ntawunguka, and Leopold Mujyambere. In address these attacks and this is likely to subsequent decisions with reference to the an important development, the reasons for be an issue of major interest. Secretary-General’s new report. listing the last three included the abduction The joint operation with Uganda appears to and sexual abuse of girls and the recruitment Further action by the DRC Sanctions Com- have been less successful. It did not achieve and use of child soldiers. The Council had mittee to include new names on the its initial intention of permanently crippling included child recruitment as well as violence sanctions list is unclear. Any decision of the the LRA, and there now seems to be a against women and children as the basis for Committee to impose sanctions requires destabilised situation in the area with LRA imposing individually targeted sanctions in the consensus of all its members. The inclu- still posing a threat. Reports of LRA attacks resolutions 1698 of July 2006 and 1807 of sion of the recent names on the list resulted against civilians have continued during March 2008, respectively. Despite MONUC’s from an initiative jointly taken by Belgium, March. There is concern that the withdrawal earlier reports about these abuses continu- France, the UK and the US. of Ugandan troops will result in a further ing on a serious scale, the Sanctions resurgence of LRA activity since the Congo- France is the lead country in the Council on Committee had not put anybody on the list lese army does not appear to have adequate the issue of the DRC. for these reasons until now. capacity to keep the rebels at bay.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 13 Underlying Problems Selected Sanctions Committee MONUC Interim Force Commander The key challenges confronting the DRC Document Lieutenant General Babacar Gaye continue to be weak state institutions, lack • S/2008/773 (12 December 2008) was () of full and effective state authority through- the latest report of the Group of out its national territory, impunity, the Size, Composition and Cost of Mission Experts for the DRC. security challenges posed by the opera- • Strength as of 28 February 2009: tions of both foreign and local illegal armed Other 16,589 troops, 728 military observers, groups, particularly in eastern and north- • SC/9608 (3 March 2009) was the 1,085 police, 956 international civilian eastern DRC, and their humanitarian press release on the addition of four personnel and 2,220 local civilian staff, consequences. There are also difficulties individuals to the assets freeze and 567 UN volunteers. related to the repatriation of Congolese ref- travel ban list by the DRC Sanctions • Approved budget (1 July 2008-30 ugees from neighbouring countries like Committee. June 2009): $1,242.73 million , including housing and issues • S/2009/105 (19 February 2009) was Duration such as property or land disputes upon the letter from Secretary-General 30 November 1999 to present; mandate their return to the DRC. informing the Council of the revised expires on 31 December 2009. concept of operations and rules of UN Documents engagement for MONUC. Selected Security Council Resolutions • S/PV.6083 (17 February 2009) was the briefing to the Council on the humani- • S/RES/1857 (22 December 2008) Western Sahara tarian situation in the DRC by Under renewed the sanctions regime for Secretary-General for Humanitarian Expected Council Action DRC and extended the mandate of the Affairs John Holmes. In April the Council will receive a report from Group of Experts until 30 November. • S/2009/52 (27 January 2009) was the Secretary-General on the situation in • S/RES/1856 (22 December 2008) the letter from the Secretary-General Western Sahara. The mandate of the UN renewed MONUC’s mandate and informing the president of the Council Mission for the Referendum in Western continued authorisation of the addi- about difficulties being encountered in Sahara (MINURSO), first established on 29 tional 3,085 troops for MONUC until attempts to secure additional troops April 1991, expires on 30 April. A briefing by 31 December 2009. and capacities for MONUC. Christopher Ross, the Secretary-General’s • S/RES/1843 (20 November 2008) • SC/9576 (16 January 2009) was new Personal Envoy for Western Sahara, is authorised the temporary deployment the press statement of the Security likely and the Council is expected to renew of an additional 3,085 troops to rein- Council expressing concern about the mandate. force MONUC’s capacity. LRA activities. • S/RES/1807 (31 March 2008) lifted the Key Recent Developments • SG/SM/12029 (30 December 2008) arms embargo for government forces, Since MINURSO’s last mandate renewal in was the Secretary-General’s press strengthened measures related to April 2008 there have been no further talks statement on the LRA. aviation and customs. between and Frente Popular para • S/2008/791 (15 December 2008) was • S/RES/1698 (31 July 2006), 1649 la Liberación de Saguía el-Hamra y de Río the response from Rwanda to the (21 December 2005) and 1596 (18 de Oro (Polisario). Over the past year, accusations of the Group of Experts April 2005) strengthened sanctions, there has been no change in position by for the DRC. including provisions in resolution 1698 the two parties. • S-8/1 (1 December 2008) was the against actors recruiting and using resolution adopted by the Special The last Council briefing was on 21 April children in armed conflict in the DRC. Session of the Human Rights Council. 2008 by Ross’s predecessor, Peter van Wal- Latest Presidential Statements sum. Van Walsum suggested moving the • S/PRST/2008/48 (22 December 2008) Other Relevant Facts discussions away from the two proposals welcomed regional efforts to address on the table presented by the parties and Chairman of the DRC Sanctions the security threat posed by the LRA. Committee instead going forward on the temporary • S/PRST/2008/40 (29 October 2008) assumption that there would be no referen- Ambassador Baki lkin (Turkey) condemned the offensive by the rebel dum with independence as an option CNDP in the eastern region of the Group of Experts without recognising Moroccan sovereignty. DRC and noted the request for • Sergio Finardi (Italy, aviation expert) He was apparently concerned that continu- reinforcement of MONUC. • Jason Stearns (USA, regional expert ing in the same track would lead to a • S/PRST/2008/38 (21 October 2008) and coordinator of the Group) deadlock, and there would be no point in expressed concern about the resur- • Mouctar Kokouma Diallo (Guinea, having another round of negotiations. gence of violence in the eastern parts customs expert) His conclusions were controversial and of the DRC and requested a compre- • Peter Danssaert (Belgium, arms expert) threatened to divide the Council. They were hensive analysis of the situation. • Dinesh Mahtani (UK, finance expert) not reflected in the Secretary-General’s 14 Latest Secretary-General’s Report Special Representative of the Secretary- April report, which recommended contin- General and Head of Mission • S/2008/728 (18 November 2008) was ued negotiations on the previous basis the fourth special report on the DRC. Alan Doss (UK) without preconditions.

14 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org The Council resolution of 30 April 2008 Key Issues extended MINURSO’s mandate for 12 The main issue for the Council in April is months. It reflected the Secretary-General’s MINURSO’s mandate renewal and whether SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT recommendations and called on the parties to adopt a simple rollover resolution or Monthly to continue good faith negotiations without whether to add additional content. preconditions based on realism and a spirit APR 2009FORECAST of compromise. The Manhasset talks in 2007 and 2008 failed to move beyond statements of posi- the parties to engage in a human rights The Secretary-General subsequently tions and towards real negotiations as dialogue with the Office of the UN High appointed Ross, an experienced requested by the Council. Unlocking the Commissioner for Human Rights and speaking former US diplomat, as his new stalemate and convincing the parties to MINURSO); and envoy. His appointment was delayed until enter into substantive negotiations there- n calling on the parties to discuss expan- January, however, because of Moroccan fore remains a major underlying issue, but sion of confidence building measures, concerns, mostly regarding his mandate. the key question for the Council is whether once again urging states to fund such The new mandate, spelled out in the at this stage to leave it entirely to Ross rather measures. Secretary-General’s letter to the Council of than seek to steer the process. 6 January, states he will work on the basis of Council and Wider Dynamics A related issue is how long to give Ross to both resolution 1813 and earlier resolutions, Council dynamics remain essentially prepare the ground and whether to renew and take into account “progress made to unchanged. The general view is still that a the mandate for 12 months or six as in the date, in order to achieve a just, durable and solution cannot be imposed but must be past. At the last renewal the Council wanted mutually acceptable political solution which found by the parties themselves through to provide more time for negotiations but at will provide for the self-determination of the direct negotiations. France is considered the same time requested the Secretary- people of Western Sahara.” the main supporter of Morocco whereas General to keep it informed of progress. Latin American members and Russia are After taking up his post, Ross held talks in sympathetic to the Polisario. Libya, as a New York and then in February headed to Another issue is the expansion of confi- neighbouring country, wants to be neutral. the region for consultations with Morocco, dence building measures and whether this Neither of the other two African members, and the Polisario. He visited Madrid should be dealt with in the resolution. The although supportive of the Polisario’s and Paris and met the new US administra- parties agreed to explore family visits by position, are expected to take over the tion in Washington. While still in listening land (currently there are only visits by air), more vocal role played by South Africa. mode, he has made clear that he will try a but have so far been unable to move beyond US policy is still under review and it new approach and not continue in the same the exploratory stage. Confidence building remains to be seen whether it will maintain track as the previous talks. He is not plan- measures between Algeria and Morocco the more pro-Moroccan tilt of the previous ning to call a fifth negotiation round (Van might also be helpful. Inadequate funding administration. Walsum held four) until the ground has has been an issue in the past and may have to be addressed again. been prepared sufficiently to make some At the last mandate renewal there were ten- progress possible. In meetings so far, he A final issue is whether to address the sions because Council members outside has apparently raised the possibility of human rights situation as some Council the Group of Friends (France, Russia, expanding confidence building measures members have proposed in the past. The , the UK and the US), felt their views beyond the current family visits between the Secretary-General has repeatedly pointed were not being adequately taken into Saharawi refugee camps in in Alge- out that MINURSO currently does not have account. Mexico, which holds the presi- ria and the Western Sahara Territory. the mandate or the capacity to monitor dency in April, is seeking increased transparency this time. In December 2008, Human Rights Watch human rights. A related issue is how this could be dealt with in a way acceptable to issued a report on the human rights situation There seems to be little appetite for any the parties. in Western Sahara and in the Tindouf refu- substantial new resolution when renewing gee camps. It criticised Morocco and the Options MINURSO’s mandate. Most members Polisario for human rights abuses, but was Options for the Council include: agree that the human rights issues are condemned by the Moroccan government n extending MINURSO’s mandate becoming increasingly important, but they as being excessively critical of their country. unchanged for six or 12 months; prefer to address these issues in a balanced The report recommended expansion of n reiterating its call to the parties to enter way and are cautious about undermining MINURSO’s mandate to include a human into substantive negotiations without pre- the political process. Morocco seems to be rights monitoring mechanism or establish- conditions and in good faith; strongly opposed to any human rights ele- ment of another UN monitoring mechanism. n expressing support for the personal ment and argues that it would create obstacles for the negotiations. However, On 17 March the UN High Commissioner envoy and requesting to be kept informed Costa Rica, who in its explanation of vote for Refugees announced that two UN-led on the status of the negotiations on a after the last mandate renewal expressed missions would visit the Tindouf camps to regular basis; disappointment over the lack of human assess overall conditions for the refugees n expanding the mandate to include a rights references, is likely to push the issue following concerns over malnutrition result- human rights component (last year Costa again and may get some support from Aus- ing from a 2008 survey. Rica proposed an amendment calling on tria and African members.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 15 Council members and the parties seem to Other Relevant Facts outlined the general conclusions of Council have a positive view of the new personal members. He said there was clear progress envoy. While his ideas on the way forward Special Representative of the in security but real challenges remained, in Secretary-General are still very preliminary, he has been particular in institution building and eco- well received. Vacant nomic and social development. Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy UN Documents Urbina emphasised that enhanced coordi- Christopher Ross (USA) nation among branches of government and Selected Resolutions MINURSO Force Commander with the international community as well as • S/RES/1813 (30 April 2008) endorsed Major General Zhao Jingmin (China) civil society is needed. Constitutional reform the Secretary-General’s recom­ is also necessary. The multiple electoral Size and Composition of Mission mendation that realism and a spirit processes are a risk to stability. Also, the of compromise are essential for the • Authorised strength: 231 military non-participation of one of the most impor- negotiations to move forward, called personnel and six police officers tant political groups in upcoming senatorial upon the parties to continue negotia- • Strength (as of 28 February 2009): elections should be tackled, he said. Finally, tions without preconditions and in 226 total uniformed personnel, he said that current levels of extreme pov- good faith and extended MINURSO’s including twenty troops, six police erty and lack of food security were the mandate for 12 months. officers, 200 military observers; sup- greatest concerns and are incompatible • S/RES/1783 (31 October 2007) called ported by 102 international civilian with stability. Finally, Urbina said it was upon the parties to continue negotia- personnel, 158 local civilian staff and important that Haiti overcome political divi- tions taking into account the efforts 19 UN volunteers sions in order to establish a basis for the made since 2006, requested the Cost country’s development. Secretary-General to report on these 1 July 2008-30 June 2009: $47.70 million talks by 31 January and extended After the briefing the Haitian permanent rep- (A/C.5/62/30) MINURSO’s mandate for six months. resentative, Léo Mérorès, reiterated Haiti’s • S/RES/1754 (30 April 2007) called for Useful Additional Resources commitment to reconstruction and devel- opment. He also said he looked forward to negotiations without preconditions n Human Rights in Western Sahara and in the Washington donors’ conference sched- and extended MINURSO’s mandate the Tindouf Refugee Camps Morocco/ uled for 13 and 14 April. for six months. Western Sahara/Algeria, Human Rights • S/RES/690 (29 April 1991) established Watch, December 2008 The latest report on MINUSTAH, issued on MINURSO. 6 March, noted that following the devastat- Secretary-General’s Latest Report ing hurricanes in September, progress in • S/2008/251 (14 April 2008) Haiti key areas of stabilisation fell short of expectations. There have been advances Latest Press Statement Expected Council Action in political dialogue, extension of state • SC/9241 (4 February 2008) On 6 April the Council is expected to hold a authority, security, and rule of law and Other debate and discuss the latest Secretary- human rights. However, daily living condi- • S/2009/19 (6 January 2009) was the General’s report on the UN Stabilization tions have deteriorated and there has been letter from the Secretary-General to Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) and perhaps a lack of development. The report also the Council expressing his intention to also a report on the Council’s visit to Haiti in emphasised the existing potential for polit- appoint Christopher Ross as his new March, prepared by Costa Rica. A briefing by ical paralysis. It mentioned that problematic personal envoy for Western Sahara. the Secretary-General’s Special Represen- provisions of the Haitian constitution, in • S/2008/348 (27 May 2008) was a letter tative in Haiti, Hédi Annabi, is also expected. particular regarding the frequency of elec- tions, would need to be reviewed. Finally, it from Morocco protesting political No Council decision is required at this time. insisted on the need for full engagement demonstrations held by the Polisario, However, in view of the importance of the and leadership of the Haitian people with- as well as the presence of troops, in upcoming Haitian senatorial elections in out which current international assistance the Tifariti zone east of the berm sepa- April, a Council presidential statement (or would not bear fruit. rating areas under Moroccan and the press statement) is possible. Polisario control. On 9 and 10 March, Secretary-General • S/PV.5884 (30 April 2008) was Key Recent Developments Ban Ki-moon visited Haiti, together with the Council meeting extending From 11 to 14 March the Council visited former US President Bill Clinton. The aim MINURSO’s mandate. Haiti and met President René Préval, Prime of the visit was to attract attention to Haiti’s • A communiqué (18 March 2008) was Minister Michèle Pierre-Louis, ministers, needs for recovery and reconstruction issued by Van Walsum with the agree- congressional and political party leaders before the international donors’ confer- ment of the parties after the fourth and representatives of the private sector ence in Washington in April. Ban called on round of talks. and civil society. On 19 March, Costa Rica’s Haiti to seize the opportunity of the confer- Ambassador Jorge Urbina, who led the ence to place the country on the path of visit, briefed the Council on the visit and economic security.

16 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Key Issues No drawdown of the mission is being pro- A major issue is the significance of poverty posed, and this seems likely to be and food insecurity. The Haitian govern- addressed only when sufficient progress SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT ment is expected to present an action plan has been made toward the stabilisation Monthly to the upcoming donor’s conference with benchmarks, particularly with regard to detailed priorities and financial figures for reduced security threats. APR 2009FORECAST international assistance. The plan would The issue of placing MINUSTAH under a make the international community’s involve- Chapter VI mandate (in contrast to the mis- • Strength as of 28 February 2009: ment in Haiti more focused and coherent. It sion’s current Chapter VII mandate), 7,039 troops and 2,031 police remains to be seen whether this can effec- previously requested by President Préval • Key Contributors of military personnel: tively harmonise existing humanitarian, was apparently not addressed during the Brazil, Uruguay, Nepal, Sri Lanka reconstruction and development plans and Council visit. • Key Contributors of police personnel: donors input, thereby creating a link Jordan, Pakistan, Nepal, China, India between immediate and long term needs. A Mexico has expressed particular interest in related issue is whether the conference will Haiti. It joined the Group of Friends of Haiti Cost be able to forge a real partnership between and sees value in the Council addressing 1 July 2008-30 June 2009: the Haitian government and the interna- Haiti during its Council presidency in April. $601.58 million tional community and ensure that the stabilisation process is more integrated as UN Documents Useful Additional Resources n Haiti 2009: Stability at Risk, International well as nationally owned. Council members, Latest Security Council Resolution conscious of the good progress that the Crisis Group, 3 March 2009 • S/RES/1840 (14 October 2008) Peacebuilding Commission has made in n UN Peace Operations and State-building: renewed MINUSTAH’s mandate for precisely this area in other countries, will be A Case Study of Haiti, Charles Call and one year. following this issue carefully. Gigja Sorensen, Center on International Latest Secretary-General’s Reports Cooperation, March 2009 A key issue for late in the year will be to • S/2009/129 (6 March 2009) evaluate the outcome of the conference • S/2008/586 (27 August 2008) and further developments in Haiti, and presented a consolidation plan with Guinea-Bissau determine whether MINUSTAH’s mandate key indicators to measure progress. needs adjustments to better reflect the Expected Council Action need for coordination of the multidimen- Latest Briefing to the Council In April the Council is expected to consider sional strands of international efforts, as • S/PV.6093 (19 March 2009) was a the next Secr etary-General’s report on the well as how to give effect to a peacebuild- briefing by Ambassador Jorge Urbina UN Peacebuilding Support Office in Guinea- ing approach. on the Council’s visit to Haiti. Bissau (UNOGBIS) due on 31 March. The UNOGBIS mandate expires on 30 June. Latest Letter Finally, in light of the concerns identified during its visit, the Council will be closely • S/2009/139 (10 March 2009) were the Key Recent Developments following the lead-up to senatorial elections terms of reference for the Council’s The political situation in Guinea-Bissau scheduled for 19 April as risks of political visit to Haiti. had been relatively stable until the dramatic tensions are high. events of 1 and 2 March when the chief of Other Relevant Facts staff of the armed forces, General Tagme Council Dynamics Na Waie, and President João Bernardo Special Representative of the Secretary- Council members appreciate that the level General and Head of MINUSTAH Vieira were assassinated on consecutive of poverty is extremely worrying and agree days. The military subsequently distanced Hédi Annabi () that job creation is a priority. Japan has itself from the killing of the president, expressed concern at the agricultural sec- Principal Deputy Special Representative describing it as a retaliatory act perpe- tor’s low productivity. of the Secretary-General trated by renegade soldiers who were loyal Luiz Carlos da Costa (Brazil) to Waie and had suspected Vieira of having There is a realisation that MINUSTAH as a master minded the killing of the army chief. peacekeeping operation cannot address Force Commander The military insisted that it had no desire to socioeconomic development under the Major-General Carlos Alberto dos seize power and would support the coun- existing framework. However, there seems Santos Cruz (Brazil) try’s constitution, which requires the head to be consensus among Council members Humanitarian and Resident Coordinator, of parliament to succeed the president in that MINUSTAH should not be given spe- UNDP Representative the event of the latter’s demise. On 3 March cific development tasks at this stage. Joël Boutroue (France) the head of the National Assembly, Rai- Council members seem to believe that Size and Composition of Mission mundo Pereira, was sworn in as interim more progress can be achieved, first head of state, with the task of organising through a real international effort to boost • Authorised strength as of 15 August elections within sixty days as required development, coupled with additional lead- 2006: military component of up to under the constitution. ership from the Haitian government. 7,200 troops and police component of up to 1,951 officers.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 17 On 3 March the Council issued a presi­ General was silent on the Council’s request.) Developments in the PBC dential statement condemning the (For further information please refer to our assassinations of Vieira and Waie, and On 4 March the chairman of the PBC December 2008 Forecast.) called on the population, political leaders country configuration on Guinea-Bissau, Options and the armed forces to exercise restraint, Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Options for the Council include: maintain constitutional order and respect Ribeiro Viotti, in response to the assas- n adopting a wait and see stance by follow- the democratic process. sinations of Vieira and Waie, called on ing developments closely on the ground; the international community to continue The Secretary-General also condemned the n asserting a much stronger interest in the assisting the implementation of the killings, as did the AU, EU, Economic Com- issues by adopting a presidential state- strategic framework for peacebuilding munity of West African States, and the ment (or even a resolution) designed to in Guinea-Bissau and organising the Community of Portuguese-Speaking Coun- buttress security in the lead up to the upcoming presidential elections. tries. The AU Peace and Security Council election by signalling a more enhanced decided not to suspend Guinea-Bissau as On 26 November the Commission Council interest; and the assassinations were deemed isolated adopted conclusions and recommenda- n in line with the Secretary-General’s Sep- incidents and not a coup d’état (on the basis tions to enhance the implementation of tember 2008 recommendations, taking that the perpetrators did not seize power and the framework for peacebuilding. The up measures to deal with the challenges instead the constitutional order took its PBC’s work on a monitoring mechanism of drug trafficking and organised crime, course following the death of the president). to assess progress with the framework such as setting up a panel of experts to was put on hold until its biannual assess- study the issues. The mandate of UNOGBIS was last reviewed ment of the situation in the country in in December and revised to include: Council Dynamics June, mainly because attention has n assisting the Peacebuilding Commission Following the 3 March presidential state- shifted to other priorities like the success- (PBC) in its multidimensional engage- ment, some Council members seem to ful holding of new presidential elections. ment with Guinea-Bissau; prefer to simply monitor developments on n enhancing capacities of national institu- Key Issues the ground and shape subsequent deci- tions to maintain constitutional order; The major issue for the Council is whether the sions based on the Secretary-General’s n supporting “an all-inclusive national events in March now pose substantial new new report. reconciliation and political dialogue risks to peace and security in the country. It remains to be seen whether the Secretary- process as an institutionalised peace General’s next report will contain consolidation framework”; A second issue is ensuring the success of recommendations for a more proactive n facilitating security sector reform; peacebuilding efforts. Council role and/or for measures to combat n assisting national authorities to combat A third issue is the challenge of holding drug trafficking and organised crime. drug trafficking and organised crime; democratic elections two months after the n mainstreaming a gender perspective into death of President Vieira. UN Documents peacebuilding; Selected Security Council Resolution n helping curb the proliferation of small Regional security implications are a related arms and light weapons; and issue. Guinea-Bissau’s border with Sene- • S/RES/1233 (6 April 1999) supported n enhancing cooperation with interna- gal’s restive Casamance region is an area the Secretary-General’s decision to tional partners in efforts to stabilise where a long separatist struggle has been establish UNOGBIS. Guinea-Bissau. highly influenced by Guinea-Bissau’s poli- Selected Presidential Statements tics. The policies of cooperation with the The Council also requested recommenda- • S/PRST/2009/2 (3 March 2009) Senegalese government by former Guinea- tions by the Secretary-General on condemned the assassination of Pres- Bissau President Kumba Yala and President establishing an integrated UN office in ident Vieira and the chief of the armed Vieira were seen as crucial in curbing the Guinea-Bissau by 15 June. forces of Guinea-Bissau, and urged unrest in the region. There are concerns continued adherence to stability, con- that further unrest in Guinea-Bissau could In February, Joseph Mutaboba was stitutional order, the rule of law and the undermine the cross-border cooperation appointed as the new Secretary-General’s democratic process. that has bolstered peace in Casamance. Representative in Guinea-Bissau and head • S/PRST/2008/37 (15 October 2008) of UNOGBIS, replacing Shola Omoregie An ongoing concern is the destabilising welcomed the commitment of Guinea- who retired on 31 December. effect of drug trafficking and organised Bissau’s government to hold crime on Guinea-Bissau and on the West legislative elections on 16 November African subregion as a whole. A related and “requested the Secretary-General issue, therefore, is whether the Council to provide in his next report further should follow up on its 15 October request details of what measures are required to the Secretary-General to “provide in his to deal with the challenges of drug next report further details of what measures trafficking and organised crime.” are required to deal with these challenges”. • S/PRST/2007/38 (24 October 2007) (The 10 December letter of the Secretary- called on the government and the UN

18 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org system to take further action on drug the letter from the chair of the PBC trafficking and organised crime. informing the president of the Council SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Selected Letters about the placement of Guinea-Bissau on the PBC’s agenda and taking note Monthly • S/2009/56 (30 January 2009) and of the Council’s request for advice on S/2009/55 (27 January 2009) was APR 2009 the situation in the country. FORECAST the exchange of letters between the Secretary-General and the president Other Relevant Facts Board is now expected in April. Resolution of the Council on the appoint Joseph 1859 requested such a briefing no later than Mutaboba as the Secretary-General’s Representative of the Secretary-General 31 March. Representative in Guinea-Bissau and and Head of UNOGBIS head of UNOGBIS. Joseph Mutaboba (Rwanda) Key Recent Developments In his last report on 4 December, Tarasov • S/2008/778 (22 December 2008) and Size of UNOGBIS Staff S/2008/777 (10 December 2008) was said the number of Kuwaiti and third- Twenty-seven, including international the exchange of letters between the country nationals whose remains had civilians, military advisers, a police Secretary-General and the president been identified increased by one (to 236) adviser and local civilians of the Council that revised and over the six-month reporting period. (Sev- extended the UNOGBIS mandate to Duration eral hundred Kuwaitis and third-country 30 June 2009 and requested recom- 3 March 1999 to present; mandate nationals are missing.) Progress on exhu- mendations on establishment of an expires on 30 June 2009 mation of Kuwaiti graves was constrained integrated UN Office in Guinea-Bissau because of a shortage of capacity in Iraq’s by 15 June 2009. Ministry of Human Rights. The Ministry is • S/2008/208 (25 March 2008) was the the only institution authorised to exhume letter from chairperson of the PBC to Iraq/Kuwait graves in Iraq. No visits to burial sites in Iraq were conducted in 2008 despite the the president of the Security Council Expected Council Action improved security situation. No progress providing advice on the peacebuilding A comprehensive report on Iraq’s compli- had been made on locating missing priorities for Guinea-Bissau. ance with resolution 1284 of 1999 (on the Kuwaiti national archives. • S/2007/744 (11 December 2007) was repatriation of all Kuwaiti and third-country the letter in which the Council nationals or their remains and the return of On 10 December Tarasov briefed the Coun- requested information from the PBC all Kuwaiti property, including national cil in closed consultations. The Council on the situation in Guinea-Bissau. archives following the 1990-1991 Gulf War) adopted a press statement. It noted positive • S/1999/232 (3 March 1999) welcomed is expected by the Council in April. This may identification of human remains had been the Secretary-General’s proposal to include the assessment of when the man- made and expressed concern at the establish UNOGBIS. date can be concluded. absence of progress on locating Kuwaiti Selected Reports archives. It also noted with regret the lack of The Council is likely to discuss this in infor- progress on exhumation activities and • S/2008/628 (29 September 2008) was mal consultations and be briefed by the expressed appreciation for the support that the latest report on UNOGBIS. Secretary-General’s High-Level Coordina- the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) PBC Documents tor, Gennady Tarasov. offered to the Iraqi Ministry of Human Rights • PBC/3/GNB/5 (4 March 2009) was the It is unclear whether any decision on con- to accelerate progress. statement by the chair of the PBC’s cluding the mandate will be taken during During a briefing to the Council on 26 Feb- configuration on Guinea-Bissau con- April. The Council may prefer to wait for the ruary, the UN Special Envoy for Iraq, Staffan cerning the assassination of President Secretary-General’s report on the status of de Mistura, said UNAMI was supporting a João Bernardo Vieira and army chief all resolutions pertaining specifically to Iraq training project to build the capacity of the Tagme Na Waie. since resolution 661 of 1990. This report, Ministry of Human Rights on exhumations. • PBC/3/GNB/4 (2 December 2008) requested in resolution 1859 of December was the PBC’s latest conclusions and 2008, is anticipated midyear. (The report is On 26 February, Kuwait’s highest ranking recommendations on the situation expected to suggest steps to be taken to envoy since the 1990 invasion visited Iraq. in Guinea-Bissau adopted on 26 return Iraq to its international standing prior Deputy Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed November 2008. to resolution 661.) Al-Sabah met with Iraqi Prime Minister Other Nouri al-Maliki. The Council will need, however, to take a • S/2009/120 (3 March 2009) was the decision on the future allocation of funds from On 2 March Iraq returned to Kuwait tapes letter from the presidency of the the Iraq escrow account for the high-level of radio and television recordings. Community of Portuguese-speaking coordinator, given that it decided in March Countries to the Council conveying On 10 March Iraq wrote to the Council call- 2008 to approve it only for 12 months. its reaction to the assassination of ing for an end to the mandate of the Guinea-Bissau’s President Vieira and On other matters, a briefing on the activities high-level coordinator and transfer of army chief Waie. of the Development Fund for Iraq and the responsibility for the issue to the Tripartite • S/2008/87 (28 December 2007) was International Advisory and Monitoring Commission. (The Commission consists of

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 19 France, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UK and Most Council members seem keen to con- Other Relevant Facts the US on one side and Iraq on the other, clude the mandate in a timely manner. with the International Committee of the Red However, there is much sympathy for Secretary-General’s High-Level Coordinator Cross as a third party.) Kuwait’s position that the process needs to be brought to a conclusion in a principled Gennady P. Tarasov (Russian Federation) Kuwait’s parliament continues to insist Iraq way. Council members would prefer to sup- appointed April 2008 meet its debt obligations of approximately port solutions found on a bilateral basis $15-16 billion, which represents loans between Iraq and Kuwait. During discus- Kuwait made to in the Saddam sions last year on ongoing support to the Hussein era. In addition to the external high-level coordinator, Russia supported a Côte d’Ivoire debt, reparations to Kuwait related to the longer financial commitment. Expected Council Action 1990-1991 invasion and occupation also The Council is expected to consider the remain outstanding. Currently 5 percent of UN Documents Secretary-General’s report on Côte d’Ivoire revenues from the sale of Iraqi oil are chan- Selected Security Council Resolutions which is due in April. Also in April, the Coun- nelled through the UN Compensation cil’s Sanctions Committee on Côte d’Ivoire Commission, which is a subsidiary organ • S/RES/1859 (22 December 2008) is expected to conduct a review of the sanc- of the Council established to process decided to review all resolutions tions regime, (the Group of Experts claims and pay compensation for losses pertaining to Iraq since resolution 661. submitted its midterm report to the sanc- and damage related to Iraq’s invasion and • S/RES/1284 (17 December 1999) tions committee in late March). The mandate occupation of Kuwait. Claims total $52 bil- requested reporting on the compli- of the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI) lion and as of January, $26.9 billion had ance by Iraq with its obligations expires on 31 July. been made available in compensation. It is regarding the repatriation or return of understood that most of the remaining out- all Kuwaiti and third-country nationals Key Recent Developments standing compensation is owed to Kuwait. and on the return of all Kuwaiti prop- The situation in Côte d’Ivoire remains frag- In its 10 March letter to the Council, Iraq erty, including archives. ile. No date or timeline for the holding of called for the annulment of all remaining • S/RES/687 (3 April 1991) established elections has been set since the last post- claims or the reduction in level of deduc- Iraq’s legal responsibility for any direct ponement of the presidential elections in tion to one percent. loss, damage, or injury to foreign gov- November (the elections were to be held on ernments, nationals and corporations, 30 November but were called off due to Key Issues as a result of Iraq’s unlawful invasion logistical, technical and financial delays in A key issue is whether Iraq and Kuwait are and occupation of Kuwait. the national identification and voters’ regis- yet willing to bring to a conclusion the mat- Latest Secretary-General’s Report tration process—the fifth postponement of ters of repatriation and the return of the elections since 2002). property. For the Council, the issue is what • S/2008/761 (4 December 2008) to do if it becomes clear that the goals of Latest Security Council Press Statement On 21 January the Special Representative Tarasov’s mandate cannot be implemented • SC/9529 (10 December 2008) of the Secretary-General for Côte d’Ivoire any further. Other and head of UNOCI, Choi Young-jin, briefed the Council. He highlighted the progress on A related issue which the Council is likely to • S/2009/143 (10 March 2009) was voter identification and registration. Choi have to address in 2009 is the ongoing a letter from Iraq on their review of also discussed the challenge of disarming nature of its role regarding Iraq, particularly resolution 661 and onwards. former combatants, the viability of holding in light of resolution 1859 which called for a • S/PV.6078 (26 February 2009) was an elections and how they directly impact the review of resolutions pertaining to Iraq since open debate during which the Council country’s future and a possible exit strategy its invasion of Kuwait in 1990. was briefed by Staffan de Mistura on for UNOCI. UNAMI’s activities. A practical question is whether there is over • S/2008/206 (26 March 2008 ) was a With respect to the peace process, Choi the long term a need for a high-level coordi- letter from the Security Council to the recalled the signing on 22 December of the nator. But the immediate issue is whether to Secretary-General deciding to finance fourth supplementary agreement on the authorise the continuation of escrow the activities of the high-level coordi- Agreement and noted its account funding for Tarasov’s mandate nator for 12 months and requesting a potential to have a decisive impact on the given the Council had agreed to support his comprehensive report in 12 months process. (The supplementary agreement activities only through March 2009. An on how to conclude his mandate. contains two key elements: completion of option in this regard is a rollover pending • S/2008/205 (11 March 2008) was a disarmament two months before the presi- consideration of the wider issues. letter from the Secretary-General to dential elections and restoration of state Council Dynamics the Security Council suggesting authority in the north by February.) The UK has the lead on this issue in additional resources to support the The Permanent Representative of Côte the Council. high-level coordinator for a further d’Ivoire, Ambassador Ilahiri Alcide Djédjé, four years. subsequently agreed with the assessment of progress made by the Secretariat. Djédjé said implementation of the fourth

20 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org supplementary agreement began on 15 Options January with the return of the financial and Options for the Council include: judicial administration to the central, north- n a statement emphasising the growing SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT ern and western zones of the country, with importance of a new and realistic time- Monthly the support of the Ivorian police and gen- frame for elections; darmerie. These zones had been occupied n signalling a readiness to impose sanc- APR 2009FORECAST by the Forces Nouvelles de Côte d’Ivoire. tions against those who obstruct the peace process or the electoral process; On 27 January, the Council adopted reso- would be subject to sanctions. n maintaining the current sanctions regime; lution 1865 extending the mandate of • S/RES/1826 (29 July 2008) extended and UNOCI for six months and authorised the the mandate of UNOCI until 31 n moving to impose targeted sanctions on reduction of its troop level from 8,115 to January 2009. those found culpable of infringing resolu- 7,450 in line with the Secretary-General’s • S/RES/1643 (15 December 2005) tions 1865 on UNOCI’s mandate and recommendations. The resolution took renewed until 15 December 2006 the 1842 on sanctions, and for obstructing note of the postponement of the presiden- sanctions regime and established a the peace process. tial elections and urged Ivorian political diamonds embargo. actors to quickly find agreement on a new Council Dynamics • S/RES/1609 (24 June 2005) increased and realistic timeframe for the elections. Council members are increasingly con- UNOCI’s contingents and authorised This timeframe would shape key elements cerned about the continued lack of a the temporary redeployment of mili- of the electoral process, including the pub- timetable for the electoral process. They tary and civilian police personnel lication of provisional and final versions of look forward to the Secretary-General’s among the UN Mission in Liberia, the electoral list and the preparation and report, particularly regarding the appropri- the UN Mission in and distribution of identity and voter cards. The ate kind of support that UNOCI can offer in UNOCI. resolution welcomed progress in identifica- the circumstances. • S/RES/1572 (15 November 2004) tion of the population and registration of established an arms embargo and voters and called upon Ivorian parties to Côte d’Ivoire Sanctions Committee mem- called for sanctions against individuals endeavour to complete those efforts by the bers are awaiting the report of the Group found to be obstructing the peace end of February. of Experts to shape their review of the process, violating human rights, pub- sanctions regime. Any significant relax- licly inciting hatred and violence and Key Issues ation of sanctions now seems highly violating the embargo. The key issue for the Council is a viable unlikely in light of the lack of progress in Selected Presidential Statements electoral timetable. (The Permanent Con- completing the voter registration and dis- sultative Framework’s decision on 10 armament programme. • S/PRST/2008/42 (7 November 2008) November to postpone the presidential expressed deep concern about the elections without producing a new date has France is the lead country on this issue in postponement of presidential elec- resulted in an unprecedented situation. This the Council. tions, urged the Ivorian parties to is the first time since the Ouagadougou Underlying Problems complete the identification and regis- tration of voters operations before the Agreement was signed in March 2007 The immediate challenges facing the coun- end of January 2009 and expressed where there has been neither a date nor a try include completing the disarmament, its determination to fully support the clearly set period for the elections.) demobilisation and reintegration of former electoral process on the understand- combatants, and the disarming and disman- Another important issue in this situation is ing that elections will be organised tling of militias. Other challenges include the how to maintain momentum with the peace before the end of spring 2009. full restoration of state authority throughout process. Continued tensions and lawless- • S/PRST/2008/11 (29 April 2008) wel- national territory, the completion of identifi- ness in many parts of the country further comed the approval by the Ivorian cation and voter registration operations, the increase the risks. authorities of the Independent Elec- holding of a credible and transparent presi- toral Commission’s proposal to The key issue for the Sanctions Committee is dential election, the reunification and postpone the presidential elections the implications for the sanctions regime restructuring of the defence and security to 30 November 2008. from recent challenges to the peace process forces and making progress in the areas of • S/PRST/2007/8 (28 March 2007) and progress towards elections. Resolution human rights and the rule of law. 1842, which on 29 October 2008 extended endorsed the Ouagadougou the sanctions regime by 12 months, indi- UN Documents Agreement. cated the Council’s readiness to impose Selected Security Council Resolutions Latest Secretary-General’s Report targeted sanctions against those posing a • S/RES/1865 (27 January 2009) • S/2009/21 (8 January 2009) threat to the country’s peace and national extended the mandate of UNOCI Selected Letters reconciliation process. This included “per- until 31 July 2009. sons…who are determined to be…a threat • S/2009/5 (5 January 2009) and • S/RES/1842 (29 October 2008) to the peace and national reconciliation pro- S/2008/793 (16 December 2008) were extended the sanctions regime until cess in Côte d’Ivoire” or “any threat to the the letters from the Secretary-General 31 October 2009 and decided that any electoral process in Côte d’Ivoire”. appointing experts. obstruction to the electoral process

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 21 • S/2008/834 (30 December 2008) was Nepal On 18 March the government declined the the letter containing the fourth supple- army’s request to extend the tenure of eight mentary agreement to the Expected Council Action generals, enhancing tensions between the Ouagadougou Agreement. The Council is expecting the Secretary- army and the government. The opposition • S/2008/694 (11 November 2008) was General’s report on progress towards a Nepal Congress spoke out in support of a letter from Burkina Faso transmitting “phased gradual drawdown and with- the army. drawal of the UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) the press statement of the fourth In early March there were protests by the staff, including arms monitors.” In January meeting of the Cadre Permanent de Muslim community. On 16 March the gov- the Council extended UNMIN’s mandate Consultation held on 10 November in ernment signed a six-point agreement with until 23 July. Ouagadougou. the United Muslim National Struggle Com- Other Karin Landgren, the Secretary-General’s mittee, a prominent Muslim group. Agreed • S/PV.6071 (21 January 2009) was a Representative in Nepal and head of UNMIN, areas include the formation of a Muslim briefing by the Secretary-General’s is expected to present the report which is commission and providing a constitutional Special Representative, Choi Young- likely to focus on progress by UNMIN and guarantee for the identity of Muslims. implications of recent developments on jin, on the situation in Côte d’Ivoire. On 10 March about 150 Tibetan exiles downsizing UNMIN. No action is required • S/2007/144 (13 March 2007) con- marked the fiftieth anniversary of a failed following the briefing although the Council tained the Ouagadougou Agreement. uprising against China with protests may choose to issue a press statement. in Kathmandu. Other Relevant Facts At the time of writing it seemed possible that The Army Integration Special Committee, Special Representative of the the Council briefing and discussion could set up to supervise the integration and reha- Secretary-General be rolled over to early May. bilitation of former Maoist combatants with Choi Young-jin (Republic of Korea) Key Recent Developments the Nepalese army, has held several meet- Force Commander The Secretary-General in January, following ings since it was set up 16 January and a Major-General Fernand Marcel his October visit to Nepal, assessed the situ- positive development was the government Amoussou () ation as fragile despite achievements of the reached on 27 March to complete integra- Police Commissioner peace process. He noted a lack of progress tion by mid July. on issues relevant to UNMIN’s mandate. Major-General Gerardo Cristian Navanethem Pillay, the UN High Commis- Chaumont (Argentina) After his visit, several troubling develop- sioner for Human Rights, visited Nepal from Group of Experts ments occurred. In November the national 18-22 March to assess the overall human Nepalese army began recruiting. On 23 rights situation and discuss the renewal of El Hadi Salah, Algeria (customs and December, Ian Martin, then head of UNMIN, the Office of Human Rights Commissioner in coordinator of the Group of Experts) reiterated that any new recruitment by the Nepal. At the end of her visit, while praising Grégoire Bafouatika, Republic of Congo Nepalese army or the Maoist army would progress made, Pillay warned that the peace (aviation) be a breach of the Ceasefire Code of Con- process could be at risk if there was no jus- James Bevan, UK (arms) duct, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement tice for victims of human rights violations. Joel Hernando Salek, Colombia and the Agreement on the Monitoring and (finance) On 29 January the Secretary-General the Management of Arms and Armies. The Noora Jamsheer, Bahrain (diamonds) appointed Karin Landgren of Sweden as his Nepalese army was not deterred and by Representative in Nepal and head of UNMIN. Size and Composition of UNOCI February had recruited 3,000 new troops. It • Strength as of 28 February 2009: 9,220 claimed it was filling vacancies and this did There has been some progress towards total uniformed personnel, including not violate the peace agreement. legislation for a commission on enforced 7,833 troops, 197 military observers; disappearances and for the truth and rec- In response, the People’s Liberation Army 1,146 police; supported by 416 inter- onciliation commission. However, some (PLA), which is the military arm of the Unified national civilian personnel, 672 local human rights groups have voiced concern Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), on 2 staff and 283 UN Volunteers that these bills’ provisions are not in line March announced it would begin recruiting • Key troop-contributing countries: with international standards. Bangladesh, , Jordan, Morocco to fill the positions of 12,000 troops disquali- and Pakistan. fied by UNMIN’s verification process. Options One option following the briefing is to have Approved Budget On 13 March the Supreme Court of Nepal a detailed discussion on next steps for upheld a challenge to the recruitment by 1 July 2008 - 30 June 2009: UNMIN, including a possible exit strategy. $497.46 million the Nepalese army and ordered them to cease recruiting. However, it upheld any Another option is to defer that discussion till recruitment before the writ was registered. closer to the mandate’s expiry and focus on Following a similar writ against the PLA, an the factors causing the current fragility. The interim order on 8 March led to the PLA Council could: suspending its campaign on 10 March. n signal that UNMIN cannot continue mon- itoring arms indefinitely and that the

22 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Nepalese government needs to produce The growing divisions between the govern- concrete proposals to reduce UNMIN’s ing coalition partners and the increasing monitoring requirements promptly; tension between the government and oppo- SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT n reaffirm to the Nepalese government the sition are becoming a potential issue for the Monthly opportunity to take advantage of UNMIN’s peace process. expertise in supporting the peace pro- APR 2009 A related issue is whether the recent recruit- FORECAST cess in the next few months; ment by the Nepalese army and the PLA will n acknowledge the progress in the Special push the Nepalese government. These dif- become a challenge to the architecture of Committee but emphasise the impor- ferences are also seen over questions such the peace process. tance of meeting a timetable for as how much pressure to put on the Nepal- integrating the two armies by mid July; Yet another issue is whether the Nepalese ese government to release minors in the n strongly urge the Nepalese government government can deliver on promises made Maoist cantonments, how UNMIN can sup- to follow up on commitments to release to ethnic groups like the recent six-point port the peace process and the type of UN minors from Maoist cantonments by a agreement with Muslims. Related to this is presence needed if UNMIN does leave. specified date, which upon failing the the increasing number of smaller ethnic India, a non-Council member with a keen Council would instruct the Working Group groups, especially in the Terai region, which interest in this issue, has indicated that it on Children and Armed Conflict to rec- are beginning to agitate for special rights. ommend stronger measures when it does not want to see UNMIN become a considers the next Secretary-General’s Other continuing issues include: long term presence in Nepal and would be report on children and armed conflict in n the slow progress on the return of prop- uncomfortable with an expansion of Nepal; and erty seized by the Maoists during the UNMIN’s role in the peace process. n suggest improved interparty dialogue insurgency; UN Documents possibly through a new mechanism. n the lack of progress in writing a new con- stitution; Security Council Resolutions Other options include: n the need to control paramilitary activities • S/RES/1864 (23 January 2009) n forming an informal group at the expert of the Young Communist League; and extended UNMIN until 23 July 2009. level of Council members, the Nepalese n the importance of showing there will not • S/RES/1740 (23 January 2007) estab- government and regional players to dis- be impunity for serious human rights vio- lished UNMIN for 12 months. cuss alternative monitoring arrangements; lations committed in the past. n requesting the Secretary-General to pro- Selected Secretary General’s Reports vide an assessment of the peace process Council Dynamics • S/2009/1 (2 January 2009) was the and the impact of UNMIN’s departure on Most members are waiting for the Secretary- latest report of the Secretary-General the peace and security situation by the General’s report before forming positions on the request of Nepal for UN assis- end of June; and on next steps for UNMIN. However, there tance in support of its peace process. n encouraging the international community continues to be agreement that the mission • S/2008/259 (18 April 2008) was a to support and assist the peace process. should be as lean as possible as it moves report on children and armed conflict towards the end of its mandate. There is in Nepal. Key Issues also growing concern about the possibility Selected Meeting Record A key issue is determining the best utilisa- of an open ended monitoring role for the UN tion of UNMIN in the next few months. if the peace process stagnates. • S/PV.6069 (16 January 2009) was the meeting record of the Secretary- A second issue is how to balance the need However, given the continuing fragility of General’s January report. to complete the arms monitoring task the coalition government and the uncertain Other against the potential for this becoming a security situation, particularly in the south, very long term role for the UN. some members are concerned that prema- • UNMIN press statement on the ture withdrawal could send the wrong recruitment of new personnel A related issue is the difficulty of further signal. Balancing this is the desire of some (23 December 2008) reducing the number of arms monitors in members to cut peacekeeping costs wher- UNMIN until alternative monitoring arrange- ever possible this year. Other Relevant Facts ments are in place. The mission is already Representative of the Secretary- down to bare bones in terms of civilian staff. At the time UNMIN was set up in January General and Head of Mission 2007, there was general agreement over Another issue is how to secure the discharge Karin Landgren (Sweden) the type of mission it should be. But subse- of minors and other personnel. The Nepal- quently, differences have emerged among Size and Composition ese prime minister made a commitment to members. As the possibility for open ended About 273 including about 73 the Special Representative on Children and arms monitoring becomes ever more likely, arms monitors Armed Conflict during her visit in December the UK and France appear to want to exert that 2,973 minors would be discharged by Duration more pressure on the Nepalese govern- the end of February, but at the time of writing 23 January 2007 to 23 July 2009 ment to commit to a timeframe for they were still in the cantonments. integration of the armies. China, and to Cost some extent Russia, appear reluctant to $88.8 million

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 23 Notable Dates for April Important Dates over the Reports Due for Consideration in April Document Requesting Report Horizon

30 March SG report on mediation and settlement of disputes S/PRST/2008/36 n Presidential elections in Guinea-Bissau 31 March SG report on the DRC (MONUC) S/RES/1856 are expected to be organised by early May. 3 April SG report on Haiti (MINUSTAH) S/RES/1840 n An international meeting on the Israeli- 8 April SG report on high-level coordinator for Kuwaiti S/2008/206 and Palestinian peace process is expected to repatriation/property S/2008/238 be held in Moscow in spring 2009. 8 April SG quarterly report on Guinea-Bissau (UNOGBIS) S/RES/1580 n Legislative elections in Lebanon are sche­ 15 April SG report on Somalia peacekeeping (AMISOM) S/RES/1863 duled for 7 June. by mid April SG report on Western Sahara (MINURSO) S/RES/1813 n Presidential elections in Iran are sched- by 27 April SG report on Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI) S/RES/1865 uled for 12 June. by 29 April SG report on Children and Armed Conflict S/PRST/2008/6 n Presidential and legislative elections in 30 April SG report on Sudan (UNMIS) S/RES/1812 Sudan to be held before July 2009 by 30 April SG report on Chad/CAR (MINURCAT) S/RES/1861 n Legislative elections in Chad are currently by 30 April SG report on ICTY/ICTR S/PRST/2008/47 slated for 2009. April 2009 Mandates Expire Relevant Document n Presidential elections are expected in 30 April UNMIS (Sudan) S/RES/1812 Afghanistan on 20 August 2009. 30 April MINURSO (Western Sahara) S/RES/1813 n Palestinian presidential and legislative April 2009 Other Important Dates elections to be held in January 2010. 3-4 April NATO Summit will be held 7 April 15th anniversary of the Rwanda genocide SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT STAFF 13-14 April High level donor conference in Washington on Haiti Colin Keating, Executive Director 14 April Open debate on mediation and settlement of disputes Joanna Weschler, Director of Research Amanda Roberts, Programme Coordinator 19 April Elections for a third of seats in the Haitian Senate. Robert Afriyie, Research Analyst 19 April Parliamentary elections in “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” Anne-Gaëlle Claude, Research Analyst 29 April Debate on children and armed conflict Shamala Kandiah, Research Analyst Also expected in April: Nina Pregellio, Research Analyst • SG to present results of investigation on damages of UN premises and loss of UN staff during Gaza Astrid Forberg Ryan, Research Analyst conflict. Brian Lockstone, Communications Consultant • A briefing on the activities of the Development Fund for Iraq and the International Advisory and Robbin VanNewkirk, Publications Coordinator Monitoring Board in accordance with resolution 1859. Jamaal A. Young, Programme Assistant

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24 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org