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Politics of International Recognition: the Case of Aspirant States

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Politics of International Recognition: the Case of Aspirant States POLITICS OF INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION: THE CASE OF ASPIRANT STATES A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts By WAIS MEHRABI B.A., Berea College, 2015 2018 Wright State University WRIGHT STATE UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL December 05, 2018 I HEREBY RECOMMEND THAT THE THESIS PREPARED UNDER MY SUPERVISION BY Wais Mehrabi ENTITLED Politics of International Recognition: The Case of Aspirant States BE ACCEPTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF Master of Arts. ________________________ Vaughn Shannon, Ph.D. Thesis Director ______________________________ Laura M. Luehrmann, Ph.D. Director, Master of Arts Program in International and Comparative Politics Committee on Final Examination: ___________________________________ Vaughn Shannon, Ph.D. School of Public and International Affairs ___________________________________ Liam Anderson Ph.D. School of Public and International Affairs ___________________________________ Carlos Costa, Ph.D. School of Public and International Affairs ___________________________________ Barry Milligan, Ph.D. Interim Dean of the Graduate School ABSTRACT Mehrabi, Wais. M.A., International and Comparative Politics Graduate Program, School of Public and International Affairs, Wright State University, 2018. Politics of International Recognition: The Case of Aspirant States Separatist polities that have managed to break away from their parent states and meet the basic criteria for statehood seek other states’ formal recognition to achieve full statehood and membership of the international society. There is no established pattern to explain external recognition of statehood empirically and theoretically. Kosovo declared independence and attained widespread recognition while Somaliland, despite successful separation from Somalia, has not. What factors explain states’ recognition decisions, or the selective conferring of recognition? The existing literature indicates that national interests, domestic politics, systematic level factors, international legal and normative standards, regime type, and identity politics shape recognition decisions. This thesis attempted to enhance the literature by focusing on less- explored factors through a Large-N cross-national quantitative analysis of ten cases. This study argues that when all other potential explanations are constant or absent, susceptibility of states to domestic separatism, regime type, and religious affinities influence states’ recognition decisions. iii Table of Contents CHAPTER 1: .................................................................................................................................. 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 1 BACKGROUND .............................................................................................................................. 2 RESEARCH QUESTION .................................................................................................................. 7 SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY ............................................................................................................. 8 ORGANIZATION OF THE THESIS .................................................................................................. 10 CHAPTER 2: ................................................................................................................................ 11 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................................. 11 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 11 DEFINITION AND TERMINOLOGY ................................................................................................ 11 INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION .................................................................................................. 22 RECOGNITION DECISIONS: FACTORS AND MOTIVATIONS ........................................................... 27 International law and normative explanations ..................................................................... 27 The systemic level explanations ............................................................................................ 33 Domestic and national politics ............................................................................................. 39 The home state factor ............................................................................................................ 41 Democratic peace theory ...................................................................................................... 43 Religion ................................................................................................................................. 46 LITERATURE REVIEW SUMMARY ............................................................................................... 48 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND HYPOTHESES ......................................................................... 51 The vulnerability proposition ................................................................................................ 52 Regime type: the role of democracy in recognition .............................................................. 56 Identity politics: religion and recognition ............................................................................ 60 CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................. 68 CHAPTER 3: ................................................................................................................................ 69 RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY ........................................................................ 69 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 69 DELIMITATION AND RESEARCH QUESTION ................................................................................ 69 DEPENDENT VARIABLE .............................................................................................................. 71 INDEPENDENT VARIABLES ......................................................................................................... 72 Vulnerability ......................................................................................................................... 72 Regime type ........................................................................................................................... 74 Religion ................................................................................................................................. 76 CONTROL VARIABLES ................................................................................................................ 78 Economic development ......................................................................................................... 79 Population ............................................................................................................................. 79 Official state religion ............................................................................................................ 80 Government regulation of religion ....................................................................................... 80 CASE SELECTION ....................................................................................................................... 81 The Republic of Abkhazia ..................................................................................................... 83 Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) ........................................................................ 85 iv Republic of Kosovo ............................................................................................................... 86 Nagorno-Karabakh (RNK).................................................................................................... 87 Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) ..................................................................... 88 The State of Palestine............................................................................................................ 90 Republic of Somaliland ......................................................................................................... 94 Republic of South Ossetia (RSO) .......................................................................................... 95 Republic of China – Taiwan ................................................................................................. 97 Transnistria (PMR) ............................................................................................................... 98 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................ 100 CHAPTER 4: .............................................................................................................................. 101 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ................................................................................................. 101 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 101 RESULTS .................................................................................................................................
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