TERRORISM FREQUENCY 0 2/19 Terrorism Frequency Report Welcome to our fifth Terrorism Frequency Report /02 Left-Wing Terrorism /04 Right-Wing Terrorism /06 The Violent Dissident Republican Threat /08 Feb/19-May/19 – review of significant incidents /09 Severity of attacks /10 The road to radicalisation – article by Raffaello Pantucci /12 02 Introduction 08 The Violent Dissident Republican Threat 10 Severity of attacks

04 Left-Wing Terrorism 09 Feb/19-May/19 – review of 12 The road to radicalisation – article by significant incidents Raffaello Pantucci 06 Right-Wing Terrorism

On the other end of the ideology spectrum, the reporting period included the horrific attacks on mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand. It is unclear to what extent New Zealand’s WELCOME law enforcement and intelligence agencies Welcome to our fifth Pool Re Terrorism Frequency Report. considered RWT a national security threat, but the rising threat of RWT has been recognised In this edition we have taken a holistic view of the terrorism threat to the United Kingdom and in the UK by the proscription of National Action considered actors from both ends of the terrorism spectrum, from Left-Wing Terrorism (LWT) as a terrorist organisation and the increased to Right-Wing Terrorism (RWT), Northern Ireland-related Terrorism (NIRT) and Islamist responsibility on MI5 for investigating RWT Terrorism1. We are privileged to have Raffaello Pantucci, Director of International Security in addition to Islamist, Separatist terrorism. Studies at Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) share his insights on the complexities The UK has experienced three RWT attacks of radicalisation and the drivers behind individuals committing terrorist attacks in the UK. in the same number of years (the murder Finally, we review the last four months of global terrorism events and how these might of Jo Cox MP, Finsbury Park Mosque and impact on our Members and their insureds. Stanwell, Surrey2) and another five have been disrupted. This threat is unlikely to abate any time soon and the recent increase in frequency of RWT attack planning is anticipated to continue, if not accelerate. A cycle of reciprocal violence is also possible and was a contributing factor in the timing of the attack in Sri Lanka. Snapshot The attack in Christchurch demonstrated that A holistic view of the RWT is an international problem. Indiscriminate mass casualty attacks by terrorism threat to the LWTs remain highly unlikely, as Eden Stewart assesses in his article, and are likely to take United Kingdom the form of targeted attacks against symbolic institutions. However, rising political polarisation considering actors and growing concern over climate change could precipitate the re-emergence of LWT groups from both ends of the committed to violent direct action to draw terrorism spectrum. attention to their cause. To add to an already complex threat landscape, Andrew Silke, Professor of Terrorism, Risk & Resilience at Cranfield University, writes that although heavy investment in intelligence operations has played a major role in limiting The Easter attack in Sri Lanka was a grim dissident republican activity over the last ten reminder that the Islamist extremist threat years, the New IRA is likely to try to escalate continues to dominate the terrorism landscape. their campaign of violence to as much as The reappearance and call to arms of Daesh’s is practically possible, including exploiting leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in a video message opportunities presented by a fractious Brexit. in April may signal a renewed focus by Daesh’s leadership on conducting spectacular attacks Despite the spectrum of terrorism threats overseas, to encourage Daesh’s affiliates to the UK faces, the insurance industry and remain with the movement, and to ensure the businesses should not be distracted by trying group’s continued relevance following its defeats to identify the exact denomination of terrorist in the Middle East. The group is likely to keep to groups but rather they should remain threat guerrilla-style tactics for the foreseeable future agnostic. There is some ideological coherence and not attempt to hold territory; whilst others between the various groups and there are believe this could signal the start of Daesh’s similar characteristics and trends between move towards a transnational terrorism model. terrorist actors in the UK: in targeting (police, The threat level from international terrorism to military, Government, crowded places, symbolic the UK remains at SEVERE (meaning that an locations, places of worship); and methodology attack is ‘highly likely’), although attacks like the (low sophistication and homemade explosives). ones in Sri Lanka, and the intelligence failures Attacks tend to be carried out by individuals associated with them, are unlikely to be or small groups with limited attack planning, replicated in the United Kingdom. Attacks using meaning a shortened time between attack low complexity methodology remain the most conception and execution. Attackers from each likely in the UK but there is a realistic possibility end of the threat spectrum tend to be incited by that determined and capable actors could online material and often show evidence of some construct and deploy multiple improvised form of mental health issue3. The risk mitigation explosive devices (IEDs) against crowded measures and security advice advocated by Current UK places (sports stadia, nightclubs, tourist sites the police and MI5 remain effective against etc) and places of worship. There also remains all threat actors. threat level: concern about returning fighters from the so-called Caliphate and their capabilities CRITICAL and battle-hardened mindset. SEVERE Threat level from 1 The terms Islamist Terrorism, Left-Wing Terrorism international terrorism (LWT), Right-Wing Terrorism (RWT), Separatist ! to the UK Terrorism and Northern Ireland-related Terrorism have been adopted by Pool Re following changes SUBSTANTIAL to Government terminology. In previous reports we have referred to these as Islamist Extremism, MODERATE Extreme Left-Wing (XLW) and Extreme LOW Right-Wing (XRW).

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On the surface, many might consider that the threat from terrorism in the UK has abated from ON THE SURFACE, Terrorism insurance its peak in 2017. This would be a false premise New research by Pool Re has found as the threat from terrorism remains at an MANY MIGHT that only one in five UK businesses have a unprecedented level (SEVERE) and there is a terrorism insurance policy, leaving them at latency of threat actors who want to do us harm. CONSIDER THAT risk of permanent financial loss in the event The threat posed by returning fighters is of a terrorist attack in their community. considered to be particularly high. Unpredictability THE THREAT In response to the findings, Pool Re has of who, when and where, especially over the launched a compact guide for business long term, means that we need to be at our FROM TERRORISM owners to explain why businesses need maximum readiness to be surprised. to think about insuring themselves against IN THE UK HAS property damage and business interruption Our next report will be Pool Re’s annual resulting from a terrorist attack. See the full Terrorism Threat and Mitigation Report which ABATED FROM guide here. will be published in November 2019. ITS PEAK IN 2017.

Conclusion It remains critically important for all businesses, be they small enterprises or large corporates, to increase their resilience to terrorism of all kinds by proactively managing and mitigating risk. Terrorism insurance is just one element of a successful risk management strategy, but it is fundamental in helping businesses transfer terrorism risks and recover from terrorism events.

2 There is ambiguity as to whether the incident in Stanwell, Surrey, was a terrorist attack or a hate crime and, although we include it in the statistics, the case is still evolving. 3 This is more common amongst Islamist and right- Ed Butler CBE DSO wing terrorist actors and lone actors, but less so Chief Resilience Officer, Pool Re with group-based actors or NIRT.

NUMBER OF PERSONS IN CUSTODY FOR TERRORISM-RELATED OFFENCES, BY IDEOLOGY 192 175 163 138 125 94

28 21 6 4 5 10 18 7 8 11 2 4

31 Dec 2013 31 Dec 2014 31 Dec 2015 31 Dec 2016 31 Dec 2017 31 Dec 2018

Key Islamist Extreme Right-Wing Other Source: Home Office Figures

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Eden Stewart WHILE THE UNITED KINGDOM However, while LWT actors in Britain are Senior Analyst not assessed to represent a significant terror EXPERIENCED LITTLE threat at present, rising political polarisation and LEFT-WING TERRORISM increasing evidence of potentially catastrophic climate change could precipitate the With the collapse of communism in the late DURING THE COLD WAR re-emergence of LWT groups committed 1980s, the threat from left-wing terrorism RELATIVE TO ITS EUROPEAN to violent direct action. In the USA, increasing receded in the West. Without the ideological NEIGHBOURS, THERE HAVE partisanship since the 2016 presidential authority and political support derived from elections has invigorated violence-prone the Soviet Union and its allies, the succession BEEN NUMEROUS INCIDENTS anarchist and anti-fascist movements in the of violent Marxist-Leninist movements seen OF UNLAWFUL ACTION BY country. In June 2017, a long-time left-wing in Europe and elsewhere for half a century LEFT-WING TERRORIST activist attacked a Republican Party practice largely withered away. session for the annual Congressional Baseball GROUPS SINCE 2000. Game, injuring six, including a congressman. Today, nominally LWT groups still account for HOWEVER, MOST OF THESE approximately 5% of attacks globally. However, RESULTED IN NO CASUALTIES While Britain has avoided comparable incidents, these are overwhelmingly concentrated in Latin there is a small but realistic possibility that America and, to a lesser extent, India and the AND WERE NOT TREATED AS worsening political divisions over Brexit and Philippines, and the groups responsible are ACTS OF TERRORISM. other issues could see radical left-wing engage primarily driven by a combination of criminality in violence against political opponents. Further and local political and social grievances, rather attacks by right-wing extremists on left-wing than a commitment to revolutionary left-wing targets – eminently probable – would increase ideology. A handful of anarchist or Marxist While the United Kingdom experienced little the likelihood of such a scenario. groups remain active in Southern Europe, LWT during the Cold War relative to its European but attacks are infrequent and rarely result neighbours, there have been numerous incidents Arguably of greater concern is the possibility in casualties. of unlawful action by LWT groups since 2000. that increasing alarm over climate change and However, most of these resulted in no casualties the perceived failure of Government and others In the 1990s, a blend of environmental and and were not treated as acts of terrorism. to adequately address it could persuade radical animal rights concerns, along with anarchist Current Home Office reporting makes little environmental activists to embark on a and anti-globalisation/anti-capitalism sentiment mention of LWT, indicating that it is not presently campaign of violence to draw attention to the largely supplanted communism as the foremost assessed to represent a significant national issue or influence policy. Environmental activists animating issues in XLW politics in Europe and security threat. The number of individuals in engaged in direct action have historically largely America. However, in recent years, there has custody for terror offences who hold left-wing eschewed violence against people in favour of been a rise in LWT activity focusing on views is estimated to be minute4 and Prevent vandalism, criminal damage and the sabotage anti-fascism and human rights, in response (the Government’s counter-radicalisation of machinery. Nonetheless, there are several to both the growth in RWT and perceived social scheme) deals overwhelmingly with concerns exceptions, both in Britain and abroad. hostility to minority groups and migrants. related to right-wing or Islamist terrorism. Despite this, indiscriminate mass casualty The virtual absence of LWT from national attacks by LWTs are highly unlikely given security discourse in the United Kingdom is prevailing views in LWT circles. While these arguably based on an accurate reading of the groups have historically committed mass far-left’s currently limited appetite for deadly casualty attacks, notably the 1972 Lod Airport violence. In the early 2000s, animal rights Massacre, this was exceptional even by the activists were tied to a series of under-vehicle standards of the violent communist terrorist and parcel-borne bombs which targeted, inter organisations active in the 1970s/80s. Offences alia, individuals and businesses involved in against property—without the intent to cause agriculture, field sports, and animal breeding, loss of life—are the most likely manifestation resulting in several injuries. However, for the of LWT. However, targeted attacks against past decade, the modus operandi of LWT has symbolic individuals or institutions are also shifted away from violence against people and a realistic possibility. While an assortment of towards intimidation, or disruptive direct action methodologies, including explosives, firearms, or attacks on property, as seen with the 2013 improvised weapons, or even biotoxins could destruction of an under-construction police be used by LWT groups, they are unlikely to facility in Portishead by the anarchist group be employed with the intent to cause ‘Angry Foxes Cell’. indiscriminate casualties. 4 Based on analysis of Home Office statistics available here.

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The range of targets potentially at risk is extensive. In addition to political figures, commercial entities have frequently been targeted in the past by LWT groups. Those involved in extractive industries, energy production, agriculture or construction are likely to be priority targets for environmentally focused LWTs, with large corporates, financial institutions and science and technology firms also perceived as ‘legitimate’ targets for a range of LWT groups. Government employees and facilities could also be targeted, due to the Government’s tacit complicity in perceived transgressions and the enduring influence of anarchist narratives on left-wing extremism.

While the development of a threat from the far-left comparable with that posed by right-wing or Islamist terrorism seems improbable at present, current trends point towards increasing levels of political polarisation and disillusionment. Combined with increasing public acceptance of the urgency of action on climate change, it is not inconceivable that a revival in LWT could occur in the medium term. For the insurance industry, this would pose many of the same challenges seen with the intensification of the RWT threat, insofar as it would significantly expand the range of exposures at risk and could increase the overall frequency of attacks.

ARGUABLY OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT INCREASING ALARM OVER CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE PERCEIVED FAILURE OF GOVERNMENT AND OTHERS TO ADEQUATELY ADDRESS IT COULD PERSUADE RADICAL ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVISTS TO EMBARK ON A CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE TO DRAW ATTENTION TO THE ISSUE OR INFLUENCE POLICY.

RISING POLITICAL POLARISATION AND THE THREAT OF DIRECT ACTION

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GREATER RANGE OF EXPOSURES AT RISK

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Eden Stewart RIGHT-WING TERRORISTS RWT are unlikely to conduct indiscriminate Senior Analyst attacks against the public, as Islamist terrorists ARE UNLIKELY TO CONDUCT have. However, mass casualty attacks against INDISCRIMINATE ATTACKS crowded locations associated with ethnic, religious or sexual minorities are more likely. The massacre of 50 people at two mosques AGAINST THE PUBLIC, AS Busy areas in ethnic minority-majority in southern New Zealand on 15 March served ISLAMIST TERRORISTS HAVE. neighbourhoods are particularly at risk, as a grim reminder of the threat posed by RWT. HOWEVER, MASS CASUALTY along with places of worship and sites popular While accounting for a small proportion of with the LGBT community. Attacks against terrorism globally, attacks by RWT have been ATTACKS AGAINST CROWDED individuals, particularly high-profile left-wing on the rise in recent years across the West. LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED figures, are also probable. WITH ETHNIC, RELIGIOUS While Islamist terrorism continues to pose the While the deliberate targeting of property principal terrorist threat to Britain, the frequency OR SEXUAL MINORITIES by the far-right (vandalism, arson etc) is not of attacks by RWT is anticipated to increase in ARE MORE LIKELY. uncommon, these incidents are typically coming years. While the methodologies they investigated as hate crimes rather than acts employ will broadly mirror those of their Islamist of terrorism, and therefore may not be certified counterparts, their intended targets differ, as the latter. While the use of explosives could increasing the range of exposures at risk. Attacks involving explosives or firearms result in significant property damage, as with are also on the cards; in the past decade, other methodology types, IEDs are assessed In the UK, the collapse of the British National RWT have demonstrated the ability to both to be used by RWTs with the primary intent to Party (BNP) from 2010 corresponded with the manufacture viable improvised explosive target people rather than property, and therefore emergence of violent, radical far-right groups devices (IEDs), and source illicit firearms attacks will typically cause greater intangible like National Action (NA), and assorted populist undetected. Large vehicle-borne IEDs are losses than material damage. street movements which, whilst not terroristic, probably beyond the means of all but the most contributed to the radicalisation of a new capable actors. However, the events of 2017 generation of RWTs. NA was banned following demonstrated that terrorists remain capable of the 2016 murder of Jo Cox MP by a white building and deploying smaller devices against Summary supremacist, but some of its members and crowded places—attacks which determined In summary, factors driving far-right violence sympathisers continued to engage in attack RWTs could emulate. are unlikely to abate any time soon, and the planning. The Islamist attacks of 2017 recent increase in frequency of RWT attack exacerbated the situation, fuelling right-wing Marauding firearms attacks of the type seen planning is therefore anticipated to continue, grievances and threatening a cycle of reciprocal in Christchurch and in Norway in 2011 are less if not accelerate. The extent to which this violence between Islamist and RWT. likely to be replicated in Britain due the difficulty could precipitate a cycle of reciprocal of acquiring the kind of weapons necessary. violence is unclear, but an increase in the The Finsbury Park attack of June 2017 was More probable is the use of more readily volume of attacks, regardless of motivating the most visible manifestation of this dynamic, available firearms either in combination with ideology, seems likely. This will clearly but a further four RWT plots have been foiled other (probably low-complexity) methodologies, impact on the frequency of terrorism since then. With rising political polarisation and or for targeted attacks against individuals. incidents occurring in the UK and, equally, the spectre of further Islamist attacks, the However, there is a possibility that RWT could the growth of RWT, with its own distinct increased frequency of right-wing attack planning acquire more sophisticated, automatic weapons target set, has also increased the range will probably be sustained and may accelerate through connections with criminal groups, of exposures at risk. in future. Inevitably, some plots will succeed. overseas extremist organisations or through the internet. The methodologies most likely to be successfully employed by RWT are those Links with serving or former military personnel involving the use of knives and vehicles as could also facilitate the acquisition of military- weapons. These low-complexity tactics attacks grade materiel. Links between service personnel require little training or preparation and are and the far-right is a very real concern, as therefore less vulnerable to advanced detection demonstrated by the recent convictions of by authorities, especially if mounted by several soldiers for being members of NA. individuals acting alone. The involvement of serving or former service personnel in attack planning could also significantly augment terrorist capabilities by providing expertise in handling of weapons or explosives, planning and reconnaissance.

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The Brexit factor? Considerable attention has been focused on THE VIOLENT DISSIDENT the question as to what role Brexit is playing with regard to dissident activities? Without question, dissident spokesmen are clear that the movement will try to exploit opportunities REPUBLICAN THREAT presented by Brexit, whether that takes the form of new recruits joining as a result of increasing frustration within nationalist communities in mainland with a particular emphasis on London. Northern Ireland, or taking advantage of fresh The organisation however suffered a series of targets due to a potential return of border heavy setbacks and was forced to move to installations. Other public statements issued a much more restrained level of activity. by the New IRA though have stressed that the violence will continue regardless of whether In 2012, some of the Real IRA merged with Brexit occurs or not. a number of smaller splinter groups to form the New IRA and this is now the major dissident Perhaps the most significant development group currently active. In 2016, a political party in 2019 was the use of parcel bombs targeting connected to the New IRA, Saoradh, was locations in London and Glasgow. The devices launched. Security sources report that were small and not particularly destructive, but (as with Sinn Fein and the PIRA in the 1980s) this represented the New IRA’s first attempt to there is a strong overlap between the leadership conduct attacks in mainland Britain in its current of Saoradh and the New IRA. A few other VDR campaign. Predictably, the small parcel devices groups still exist – most notably Continuity IRA received more media attention than the (CIRA) – which despite having a diminished combined coverage given to the 15 bigger capability are none the less lethal and still aspire bombings which had occurred in Northern to carry out attacks. Ireland in the previous 12 months. As a result, Andrew Silke the incentive for the dissidents to carry out Professor of Terrorism, Risk Management Understanding the Current Threat future operations against targets in the mainland and Resilience, Cranfield University While violence has been ongoing throughout remains strong. the past two decades, 2019 witnessed a number of high profile incidents. In January 2019, a substantial car bomb was detonated in Derry’s Background city centre targeting the courthouse building. Conclusion Though often overlooked in recent years, In March, the New IRA claimed responsibility for If they can, the New IRA will try to escalate terrorism related to Northern Ireland is still a series of parcel bombs which had been sent to their campaign of violence to as much as a possible threat to the UK. Since the signing targets at Heathrow Airport, London City Airport, is practically possible. The killing of Lyra of the Good Friday Peace Agreement in 1998, Waterloo train station and the University of McKee provided a temporary check as the over 150 people have been killed as a result of Glasgow. Then in April, a young journalist, Lyra group looked to weather a public back-lash security-related violence in the region5. A young McKee, was shot dead after a New IRA gunman to the journalist’s murder. The discovery of a journalist, Lyra McKee, became the latest fatality opened fire during a riot in Londonderry. car bomb targeting an off-duty police officer when she was shot and killed by violent dissident McKee’s killing attracted international attention in early June illustrates this though was a republicans (VDRs) during a riot in Derry in April. and reignited wider awareness that a dissident short-lived respite. Heavy investment in threat still existed. intelligence operations has played a major On average between 15-40 shootings and role in limiting VDR activity over the last ten bombings take place each year6 though media These and other attacks demonstrated that the years. Whether the New IRA can exploit coverage of the incidents outside of Northern dissidents possess and are able to use a range tensions around Brexit to build momentum Ireland is very limited and wider awareness of of weapons. The groups have access to firearms for an escalated campaign of violence the violence is low. In the 12 months up and ammunition and are also able to manufacture remains to be seen. to March 2019, the Police Service of Northern explosive devices: from small scale incendiary Ireland (PSNI) recorded 15 bombings and devices to much more powerful vehicle bombs. 38 security-related shootings in the province6. Estimates suggest that there are only about While there is no denying that the level of 40 active members in the New IRA though the violence has declined massively compared group enjoys small pockets of wider community to that seen before the Good Friday Agreement, support. Three dissident republicans are it is still vital to realise that a variety of terrorist currently elected to the district council of Derry organisations remain active. and Strabane. In 2016, 3000 people attended a rally organised by the dissidents and even in the Real IRA to New IRA immediate aftermath of Lyra McKee’s murder In the 1990s, the major dissident group to hundreds of supporters still attended Saoradh emerge was the Real IRA in 1997. The Real Irish commemoration events in Belfast and Derry. 5 https://www.psni.police.uk/globalassets/inside- Republican Army (RIRA) was built around a the-psni/our-statistics/security-situation-statistics/ group of leading figures from the Provisional IRA One of the main challenges that the dissidents 2019/march/security-situation-statistics-to- who were either expelled or resigned in protest face, however, is an intense intelligence and march-2019.pdf. ‘Security-related’ is the standard over the Peace Process. They and other surveillance campaign against them. Substantial terminology for paramilitary-related violence. See: dissidents rejected – and continue to reject – MI5 resources are deployed in Northern Ireland https://www.psni.police.uk/inside-psni/Statistics/ the Good Friday Agreement and what they to help contain the dissident threat7 and they are security-situation-statistics/. These deaths do not include people killed in the Republic of Ireland view as a Sinn Fein sell-out. One of these figures supported by the PSNI’s Terrorism Investigation during this period. was Mickey McKevitt, then the Quartermaster Unit and by the British Army’s Special 6 https://www.psni.police.uk/globalassets/inside- General for the PIRA, a very senior and Reconnaissance Regiment. This has resulted the-psni/our-statistics/security-situation-statistics/ operationally very important post within the in sustained pressure on dissident activities with 2019/march/security-situation-statistics-to- organisation. Within weeks of leaving, McKevitt a high number of plots disrupted. While the march-2019.pdf had established the Real IRA under his authorities have an excellent intelligence picture 7 According to the 2017-2018 House of Commons command and attracted a sizeable number they have struggled to gain enough evidence to Intelligence & Security Committee Annual Report, of experienced former PIRA members into the turn this into convictions. For example, of 176 22% of MI5’s effort is allocated to Northern Ireland related terrorism: https://assets.publishing.service. ranks. The Real IRA initially attempted to launch people arrested for suspected terrorist offences gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/ and sustain an intense terrorist campaign within in the 2017/18 financial year, just 13 were attachment_data/file/772726/HC1692_ISC_ both Northern Ireland itself and on the UK actually charged. Annual_Report_2017_18.pdf

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Camilla Scrimgeour Senior Analyst

Frequency of global terrorism

Total number 323 of attacks Total number 38 of countries

Key: Europe 6 Latin America and the Caribbean 13 Middle East and North Africa 70 North America 1 Russia and CIS States 0 South Asia 118 South East Asia 14 South Pacific 1 Sub-Saharan Africa 100

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FEB/19-MAY/19 A review of significant incidents Continued

Severity of attacks There were 323 attacks between 1 February 2018 and 31 May 2019, causing at least 1,744 deaths and 2,335 injuries. The most lethal attack took place in Sri Lanka. There were six attacks in Europe, one of which took place in Great Britain.

February March April May 2019 2019 2019 2019

1 3 March 15 April 21 Christchurch, New Zealand Sri Lanka Firearms attack PBIED attack Killed: 50 Killed: 263 Fatalities Injured: 50 Injured: 500+

2 March 16 Stanwell, Surrey Bladed attack Killed: 0 Injuries Injured: 1

Source: Pool Re Terrorism Database

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Global attacks Links to sources of further information: 1. March 15 3. April 21 Christchurch, New Zealand Sri Lanka

Firearms attack PBIED attack Killed: 50, injured: 50 Killed: 263, injured: 500+ Action Counters Terrorism (ACT) Knowing how to recognise and report suspicious A 28-year-old Australian white supremacist In a well-planned and coordinated attack, activity is important in keeping safe from terrorism. attacked two mosques in Christchurch. seven suicide bombers detonated improvised Read more on the ACT website, which offers advice He was armed with five firearms, including explosive devices (IEDs) in three luxury hotels and guidance on how to report concerns including illegally modified semi-automatic rifles and and three churches across Sri Lanka. The both physical and online activity. combat shotguns. Firing indiscriminately, attack was claimed by Daesh via its Amaq News he killed 42 people at the al Noor Mosque in Agency and a video of its leader Abu Bakr central Christchurch, before driving to the east al-Baghdadi, and is the most lethal claimed of the city to attack the Linwood Islamic Centre. by Daesh outside the Middle East. The attacker was reportedly on his way to a Centre for the Protection of National third target when intercepted and detained by It is unclear if any of the attackers, all Sri Lankan Infrastructure (CPNI) police. Two improvised explosive devices of an nationals, had undergone terrorist training, but Their website offers a wide range of advice, not just unknown composition were found in his vehicle. they likely received assistance from members for national infrastructure assets. Read more on their The attack was the first in New Zealand since of Daesh. The attacks displayed considerable guidance for disrupting hostile reconnaissance on their website. 1985, and by far the deadliest. The suspect was organisational skill and were likely carefully not known either to New Zealand or Australian planned and coordinated. The IEDs appear police or intelligence services. to have been constructed using commercial blasting gelatine and caused considerable New Zealand has historically been relatively damage to the targets. Gelignite is commonly Cross-sector Safety and Security free from violent extremism. This, and the limited used in mining and quarrying, and could have Communications resources of the country’s counter-terrorism been obtained locally, either through a third A partnership between law enforcement agencies, apparatus, likely informed his decision to mount party, the criminal economy or stolen from local and national government organisations and the attack there. At present, it is unclear to what commercial users. Based on the size of the private sector businesses. Register your business extent New Zealand’s intelligence agencies backpacks, it is estimated that each contained to receive security updates on the CSSC website. considered RWT a national security threat, several kg of explosives and a similar weight but they will likely face considerable public of ball bearings (which were also recovered scrutiny for failing to detect the suspect’s attack from a weapons cache). planning. Despite his apparent proficiency in the handling of weapons and the use of tactical Despite the clear sophistication of the attack, The UK threat levels are set by MI5 and clothing, the attacker did not have military its success appears to represent a significant the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre, JTAC. training. However, the recruitment of serving intelligence failure by Sri Lanka’s security Read more about them and international terrorism via or former soldiers by RWT is a concern, apparatus. The Sri Lankan Government was the MI5 website. particularly in the UK where access to firearms reportedly warned of an impending attack is much more restricted. The attack highlighted several times by both Indian and US intelligence the growth of RWT in the West, and the police as early as 04 April. Further warnings along with and MI5 will be alert to copycat attacks in the a list of suspects and potential targets were UK. Enhanced protective security measures allegedly communicated to multiple Government National Business Crime Centre around mosques and other likely targets should ministers in advance of the attack. The reason Resource for police and businesses to learn, share be expected. the Sri Lankan authorities failed to act on the and support each other to prevent and combat crime, including terrorism. Follow them on Twitter or see intelligence is unclear but is likely related to the their website. ongoing political dispute between the country’s 2. March 16 senior politicians. Intelligence failures like that Stanwell, Surrey8 seen in Sri Lanka are unlikely to be replicated in the UK. Bladed attack See It, Say It, Sorted Killed: 0, injured: 1 In the wake of the attacks, the Foreign and A campaign to encourage train passengers and Commonwealth Office and several foreign station visitors to report any unusual items or activity. A man attacked a foreign national with a baseball governments warned citizens against travel to Text 61016 or call 0800 40 50 40 to help keep the bat and knife in Stanwell while reportedly Sri Lanka. At the time of writing, this advice had UK’s rail network safe. shouting anti-Muslim slurs. The victim survived not been rescinded and Sri Lankan authorities the attack, and the attacker was arrested shortly are continuing to investigate the network after the incident. Counter-terrorism police responsible for the attack. It is unlikely to released a statement saying the suspect is represent a significant escalation in Daesh’s a right-wing terrorist, and that the attack was ability to carry out similar attacks in the West. Run, Hide, Tell being treated as an act of terrorism. Nonetheless, it indicates that Daesh remains Information and resources to stay safe if you are capable of orchestrating attacks and its caught up in a firearms and weapons incident in The attack was the third carried out by leadership’s focused on conducting the UK. right-wing terrorists in the UK since 2016. ‘spectacular’ attacks overseas. Further such The attack may have been inspired by the attacks by the group are likely, and there remains Christchurch mosque shooting the previous day, a realistic possibility of Daesh, or its adherents, and highlights the increasing threat posed by successfully conducting mass casualty attacks National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) right-wing terrorists. Further such attacks are involving explosives in the UK. A part of GCHQ, the NCSC was set up to help protect likely, and more severe, mass casualty attacks our critical services from cyber attacks, manage major by RWT remain a realistic possibility. incidents, and improve the underlying security of the UK Internet through technological improvement and advice to citizens and organisations. Their vision is to help make the UK the safest place to live and do 8 There is ambiguity as to whether the incident in business online. Stanwell, Surrey, was a terrorist attack or a hate crime and although we include it in the statistics the case is still evolving.

Pool Re TERRORISM FREQUENCY Frequency Report 11 02 Introduction 08 The Violent Dissident Republican Threat 10 Severity of attacks

04 Left-Wing Terrorism 09 Feb/19-May/19 – review of 12 The road to radicalisation – article by significant incidents Raffaello Pantucci 06 Right-Wing Terrorism THE ROAD TO RADICALISATION – IDEOLOGICAL TRENDS AND PROCESSES

Amongst the reams of academic literature written on the topic, Extreme Right-Wing Looking at the extreme right-wing end of the there is no single explanation or answer to how or why radicalisation scale, there has been a noticeable change in the happens. This process of radicalisation is a highly individualised profile of extremists who are becoming involved one, driven by personal choices framed against a broader with the community moving increasingly towards a profile not dissimilar to those that are found on ideological backdrop. the violent Islamist end of the scale. Previously, the extreme right was largely characterised by older white men who tended to be isolated. This has changed more recently, with a growth Islamist in younger people and women becoming involved For example, while violent Islamist radicalisation in communities that increasingly look closer to has long been perceived as being the domain those found on the violent Islamist end of the predominantly of young men, more recently scale. This has been most vividly captured in there has been an escalation in discussion the UK through the emergence of the network around the role of women in extremist networks. National Action, a loud online and offline activist Data shows us that women have long played organisation that used to organise protests, and a role in violent Islamist networks, but the which has moved in the direction of planning impenetrability of most battlefields meant covert terrorist activity. Unlike their predecessors that in the past few would actually go and join on the extreme right, it has been a network groups abroad. Rather, they would stay behind bringing together younger activists all drawn and champion the cause through the by a common ideology and talking in terms not dissemination of extremist material or through dissimilar to those that are traditionally found on helping to inspire or instigate their partners to the violent Islamist side of the coin. Using terms play a more active role. Women like Malika el like white jihad and talking about launching Aroud, the twice widowed head of an online stabbing attacks, the threat picture is one which network sending people to Afghanistan, apes that seen previously in cells inspired by became significant radicalisers and recruiters, ISIS, leading the UK Government to focus Raffaello Pantucci while only the occasional woman, like Muriel on the group as a particular terrorist threat. Director of International Security Studies Degauque, would show up as suicide bombers. at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) This has now entirely transformed, with women seemingly playing this role from the frontlines, USING TERMS LIKE WHITE with growing numbers reportedly becoming JIHAD AND TALKING ABOUT People seeking an identity or explanation for involved not only in helping build and sustain LAUNCHING STABBING their role in the world are drawn to the relatively networks, but also even in attack cells. While straightforward answer provided by an extremist it is not clear the degree to which this changes ATTACKS, THE THREAT ideology to join groups and conduct terrorist our understanding of radicalisation, it has PICTURE IS ONE WHICH APES acts. Yet, the reason that they got themselves changed our understanding of how networks THAT SEEN PREVIOUSLY IN mentally into the space that meant they were operate and the role of women within them. seeking an alternative explanation for the world CELLS INSPIRED BY ISIS, around them is highly personalised and driven LEADING THE UK by their own experience. Having said all of this, GOVERNMENT TO FOCUS ON there are some broad trends that are observable in the process of radicalisation that seem to THE GROUP AS A PARTICULAR have evolved over time, and seem to vary TERRORIST THREAT. across ideologies.

Pool Re TERRORISM FREQUENCY Frequency Report 12 02 Introduction 08 The Violent Dissident Republican Threat 10 Severity of attacks

04 Left-Wing Terrorism 09 Feb/19-May/19 – review of 12 The road to radicalisation – article by significant incidents Raffaello Pantucci 06 Right-Wing Terrorism

There are other aspects of radicalisation which Fringe ideologies THE BROAD appear to be changing. While there was always Going forwards this is going to be a growing some question about the degree to which problem, in particular as the growth in the online RATIONALE THAT mental health was an issue in radicalisation, world has provided an environment in which in more recent years this has become more more fringe ideologies can develop a sense CAN BE FOUND IN prominent. Cases like the attack on New Year’s of identity and community amongst themselves Eve of revellers in Manchester was the latest which previously they would have been unable MOST INDIVIDUAL expression of a threat which seemed to cross to find. This creates a context in which the divide between radicalisation and mental radicalisation can become more diffuse, and CASES OF health, with the culprit examined through both micro-ideologies can assume greater power. lenses by authorities. The UK in particular has Given the rise of the lone actor terrorist as a TERRORISM been very aware of this growing trend for some phenomenon across ideologies, and the lowered time – and while the research around whether threshold of access to ever more dangerous REMAINS A SENSE this is a new phenomenon or merely a technology, there is a menacing potential fusion previously underexplored one is still unclear – on the horizon which thus far has expressed OF PERSONAL the response has been to develop ‘vulnerability itself in one-off attacks. What we have still not hubs’ in Birmingham, Manchester and London understood entirely is how this changes our GRIEVANCE to respond to this side of the threat. These hubs understanding of radicalisation and how it works. are designed to bring together mental health THAT IS LINKED practitioners, police officers and nurses to create a specially designed tool to manage TO A PERCEIVED this aspect of the threat picture. Conclusion The problem of radicalisation appears a INJUSTICE A broad rationale perennial one, but how it expresses itself What is unclear is what is driving these changes. through different ideologies appears to IN SOCIETY. The broad rationale that can be found in most broadly follow trends that go in similar individual cases of terrorism remains a sense directions; but as we move into a world of personal grievance that is linked to a where traditional groups hold an ever-more perceived injustice in society, which is diffuse appeal and micro-ideologies start mobilised by a terrorist ideology or network. to emerge, how the threat picture expresses The weighting of these varies from case to case, itself and who we need to pay attention to with some motivated more by personal issues will become ever more confusing. In fact, this threat is not that new and is part of than any ideology. But broadly speaking a growing continuum of threat from the extreme general anti-establishmentarianism remains right that has been visible in Europe for some a major driver of radicalisation, with extremist time. In continental Europe, an earlier ideologies as the lens through which people expression of this threat can be found in the can express themselves. National Socialist Underground in Germany. And even in the UK, one of the precursors This is not something that is new to organised showing how this threat picture was connected human society. Communities will always have up around Europe could be found in the outlier a political spectrum, and on the edges of those case of Pavlo Lapshyn, a young Ukrainian spectra there will be individuals who feel like engineering student who won a scholarship to their messages are not being heard and need come to the UK and then launched a one-man to express themselves through violence. terror campaign in 2013 against British Muslims As we have seen in recent times, the growing in the West Midlands. Starting with the murder radicalisation of the middle ground in politics of Mohammed Saleem, Lapshyn then launched has meant that the extreme edges (on the right a series of bombs against Mosques in the West in particular) have been brought further into Midlands, with fortune largely sparing the the centre, giving adherents a sense of their communities he targeted before he was ideology becoming more significant and captured. His history in Ukraine before coming relevant, spurring them into greater action. to the UK was of an angry young man with a history of making bombs and an active footprint online with extreme right forums. His appearance in the UK showed how the threat from Central and Eastern Europe was a mobile one which could threaten the UK.

Pool Re TERRORISM FREQUENCY Frequency Report 13 02 Introduction 08 The Violent Dissident Republican Threat 10 Severity of attacks

04 Left-Wing Terrorism 09 Feb/19-May/19 – review of 12 The road to radicalisation – article by significant incidents Raffaello Pantucci 06 Right-Wing Terrorism

FEB/19-MAY/19 SIGNIFICANT INCIDENTS FACTS SNAPSHOT

Region of attacks Global attack methodology Global attack target types

150 150 200

150 100 100

100

50 50 50

0 0 0 I Asia North Africa South South South lice I I Paci c Middle iilian Europe places ehicle Military and the laded America rperty East Asia yblic East and Firears rded Caribbean CIS States Russia and plsies ernent North Africa Sub-Saharan Latin America The frequency of attacks was greatest Explosives were the most commonly used Police, Military and Government targets in South Asia in the reporting period, weapon in attacks, followed by firearms. remain the most frequently attacked sector, attributable mostly to Islamist extremism. followed by crowded places. About us NEXT STEPS: Pool Re is the UK’s terrorism reinsurance pool, providing effective protection for the UK economy and underwriting over £2 trillion of exposure to terrorism risk in commercial property across the UK mainland. Through its Terrorism Research and Analysis Centre (TRAC), Pool Re aims to improve the risk awareness of current and emerging terrorism perils for Members and other key stakeholders by highlighting the availability of terrorism cover for all UK mainland Commercial Insurance customers.

About this Terrorism Frequency Report The Terrorism Frequency Report provides an overview of significant acts of terrorism within the previous quarter as well as identifying key trends and themes that we believe are relevant to the terrorism (re)insurance market. Our methodology is based on the TRAC Terrorism Database, analysis of the wide range of publicly available open source material and collaboration with subject matter experts.

Disclaimer This document has been prepared by Pool Discover more Terrorism Frequency Briefing on Extreme Reinsurance Company Limited (Pool Re). While Go online to discover more about us, Right-Wing this information has been prepared in good faith, our work, methodology and to download https://www.poolre.co.uk/terrorism-frequency- no representation or warranty, expressed or our latest publications. briefing-extreme-right-wing/ implied, is or will be made and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by Pool Re, or by any of its respective directors, officers, employees or agents in relation to the accuracy Email Pool Re and BIBA Terrorism Insurance Guide or completeness of this document and any such [email protected] https://www.poolre.co.uk/wp-content/ liability is expressly disclaimed. uploads/2019/05/BIB008-Terrorism-Insurance- Call Guide-web.pdf In particular, but without limitation, no +44 (0)20 7337 7170 representation or warranty is given as to the reasonableness of future suggestions contained LinkedIn Pool Re & ITN Productions VIDEO – Ensuring in this document. www.linkedin.com/company/1795229 economic resilience and protecting businesses against the terrorism threat Pool Re is a company limited by guarantee Twitter https://www.poolre.co.uk/leading-way- and registered in England and Wales under @poolreinsurance programme-ensuring-economic-resilience- company no. 02798901 having its registered protecting-businesses-terrorism-threat/ office at Hanover House, 14 Hanover Square, Address London W1S 1HP. Pool Reinsurance Company Limited Equitable House © Pool Reinsurance Company Limited 2019 47 King William Street London EC4R 9AF