Terrorism Frequency Report

TERRORISM FREQUENCY 0 2/19 Terrorism Frequency Report Welcome to our fifth Terrorism Frequency Report /02 Left-Wing Terrorism /04 Right-Wing Terrorism /06 The Violent Dissident Republican Threat /08 Feb/19-May/19 – review of significant incidents /09 Severity of attacks /10 The road to radicalisation – article by Raffaello Pantucci /12 02 Introduction 08 The Violent Dissident Republican Threat 10 Severity of attacks 04 Left-Wing Terrorism 09 Feb/19-May/19 – review of 12 The road to radicalisation – article by significant incidents Raffaello Pantucci 06 Right-Wing Terrorism On the other end of the ideology spectrum, the reporting period included the horrific attacks on mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand. It is unclear to what extent New Zealand’s WELCOME law enforcement and intelligence agencies Welcome to our fifth Pool Re Terrorism Frequency Report. considered RWT a national security threat, but the rising threat of RWT has been recognised In this edition we have taken a holistic view of the terrorism threat to the United Kingdom and in the UK by the proscription of National Action considered actors from both ends of the terrorism spectrum, from Left-Wing Terrorism (LWT) as a terrorist organisation and the increased to Right-Wing Terrorism (RWT), Northern Ireland-related Terrorism (NIRT) and Islamist responsibility on MI5 for investigating RWT Terrorism1. We are privileged to have Raffaello Pantucci, Director of International Security in addition to Islamist, Separatist terrorism. Studies at Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) share his insights on the complexities The UK has experienced three RWT attacks of radicalisation and the drivers behind individuals committing terrorist attacks in the UK. in the same number of years (the murder Finally, we review the last four months of global terrorism events and how these might of Jo Cox MP, Finsbury Park Mosque and impact on our Members and their insureds. Stanwell, Surrey2) and another five have been disrupted. This threat is unlikely to abate any time soon and the recent increase in frequency of RWT attack planning is anticipated to continue, if not accelerate. A cycle of reciprocal violence is also possible and was a contributing factor in the timing of the attack in Sri Lanka. Snapshot The attack in Christchurch demonstrated that A holistic view of the RWT is an international problem. Indiscriminate mass casualty attacks by terrorism threat to the LWTs remain highly unlikely, as Eden Stewart assesses in his article, and are likely to take United Kingdom the form of targeted attacks against symbolic institutions. However, rising political polarisation considering actors and growing concern over climate change could precipitate the re-emergence of LWT groups from both ends of the committed to violent direct action to draw terrorism spectrum. attention to their cause. To add to an already complex threat landscape, Andrew Silke, Professor of Terrorism, Risk & Resilience at Cranfield University, writes that although heavy investment in intelligence operations has played a major role in limiting The Easter attack in Sri Lanka was a grim dissident republican activity over the last ten reminder that the Islamist extremist threat years, the New IRA is likely to try to escalate continues to dominate the terrorism landscape. their campaign of violence to as much as The reappearance and call to arms of Daesh’s is practically possible, including exploiting leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in a video message opportunities presented by a fractious Brexit. in April may signal a renewed focus by Daesh’s leadership on conducting spectacular attacks Despite the spectrum of terrorism threats overseas, to encourage Daesh’s affiliates to the UK faces, the insurance industry and remain with the movement, and to ensure the businesses should not be distracted by trying group’s continued relevance following its defeats to identify the exact denomination of terrorist in the Middle East. The group is likely to keep to groups but rather they should remain threat guerrilla-style tactics for the foreseeable future agnostic. There is some ideological coherence and not attempt to hold territory; whilst others between the various groups and there are believe this could signal the start of Daesh’s similar characteristics and trends between move towards a transnational terrorism model. terrorist actors in the UK: in targeting (police, The threat level from international terrorism to military, Government, crowded places, symbolic the UK remains at SEVERE (meaning that an locations, places of worship); and methodology attack is ‘highly likely’), although attacks like the (low sophistication and homemade explosives). ones in Sri Lanka, and the intelligence failures Attacks tend to be carried out by individuals associated with them, are unlikely to be or small groups with limited attack planning, replicated in the United Kingdom. Attacks using meaning a shortened time between attack low complexity methodology remain the most conception and execution. Attackers from each likely in the UK but there is a realistic possibility end of the threat spectrum tend to be incited by that determined and capable actors could online material and often show evidence of some construct and deploy multiple improvised form of mental health issue3. The risk mitigation explosive devices (IEDs) against crowded measures and security advice advocated by Current UK places (sports stadia, nightclubs, tourist sites the police and MI5 remain effective against etc) and places of worship. There also remains all threat actors. threat level: concern about returning fighters from the so-called Caliphate and their capabilities CRITICAL and battle-hardened mindset. SEVERE Threat level from 1 The terms Islamist Terrorism, Left-Wing Terrorism international terrorism (LWT), Right-Wing Terrorism (RWT), Separatist ! to the UK Terrorism and Northern Ireland-related Terrorism have been adopted by Pool Re following changes SUBSTANTIAL to Government terminology. In previous reports we have referred to these as Islamist Extremism, MODERATE Extreme Left-Wing (XLW) and Extreme LOW Right-Wing (XRW). Pool Re TERRORISM FREQUENCY Frequency Report 02 02 Introduction 08 The Violent Dissident Republican Threat 10 Severity of attacks 04 Left-Wing Terrorism 09 Feb/19-May/19 – review of 12 The road to radicalisation – article by significant incidents Raffaello Pantucci 06 Right-Wing Terrorism On the surface, many might consider that the threat from terrorism in the UK has abated from ON THE SURFACE, Terrorism insurance its peak in 2017. This would be a false premise New research by Pool Re has found as the threat from terrorism remains at an MANY MIGHT that only one in five UK businesses have a unprecedented level (SEVERE) and there is a terrorism insurance policy, leaving them at latency of threat actors who want to do us harm. CONSIDER THAT risk of permanent financial loss in the event The threat posed by returning fighters is of a terrorist attack in their community. considered to be particularly high. Unpredictability THE THREAT In response to the findings, Pool Re has of who, when and where, especially over the launched a compact guide for business long term, means that we need to be at our FROM TERRORISM owners to explain why businesses need maximum readiness to be surprised. to think about insuring themselves against IN THE UK HAS property damage and business interruption Our next report will be Pool Re’s annual resulting from a terrorist attack. See the full Terrorism Threat and Mitigation Report which ABATED FROM guide here. will be published in November 2019. ITS PEAK IN 2017. Conclusion It remains critically important for all businesses, be they small enterprises or large corporates, to increase their resilience to terrorism of all kinds by proactively managing and mitigating risk. Terrorism insurance is just one element of a successful risk management strategy, but it is fundamental in helping businesses transfer terrorism risks and recover from terrorism events. 2 There is ambiguity as to whether the incident in Stanwell, Surrey, was a terrorist attack or a hate crime and, although we include it in the statistics, the case is still evolving. 3 This is more common amongst Islamist and right- Ed Butler CBE DSO wing terrorist actors and lone actors, but less so Chief Resilience Officer, Pool Re with group-based actors or NIRT. NUMBER OF PERSONS IN CUSTODY FOR TERRORISM-RELATED OFFENCES, BY IDEOLOGY 192 175 163 138 125 94 28 21 6 4 5 10 18 7 8 11 2 4 31 Dec 2013 31 Dec 2014 31 Dec 2015 31 Dec 2016 31 Dec 2017 31 Dec 2018 Key Islamist Extreme Right-Wing Other Source: Home Office Figures Pool Re TERRORISM FREQUENCY Frequency Report 03 02 Introduction 08 The Violent Dissident Republican Threat 10 Severity of attacks 04 Left-Wing Terrorism 09 Feb/19-May/19 – review of 12 The road to radicalisation – article by significant incidents Raffaello Pantucci 06 Right-Wing Terrorism LEFT-WING TERRORISM Eden Stewart WHILE THE UNITED KINGDOM However, while LWT actors in Britain are Senior Analyst not assessed to represent a significant terror EXPERIENCED LITTLE threat at present, rising political polarisation and LEFT-WING TERRORISM increasing evidence of potentially catastrophic climate change could precipitate the With the collapse of communism in the late DURING THE COLD WAR re-emergence of LWT groups committed 1980s, the threat from left-wing terrorism RELATIVE TO ITS EUROPEAN to violent direct action. In the USA, increasing receded in the West. Without the ideological NEIGHBOURS, THERE HAVE partisanship since the 2016 presidential authority and political support derived from elections has invigorated violence-prone the Soviet Union and its allies, the succession BEEN NUMEROUS INCIDENTS anarchist and anti-fascist movements in the of violent Marxist-Leninist movements seen OF UNLAWFUL ACTION BY country. In June 2017, a long-time left-wing in Europe and elsewhere for half a century LEFT-WING TERRORIST activist attacked a Republican Party practice largely withered away.

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