LIST of CONTRIBUTORS Cristina Bicchieri Is Professor of Philosophy
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Mill's Conversion: the Herschel Connection
volume 18, no. 23 Introduction november 2018 John Stuart Mill’s A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive, being a connected view of the principles of evidence, and the methods of scientific investigation was the most popular and influential treatment of sci- entific method throughout the second half of the 19th century. As is well-known, there was a radical change in the view of probability en- dorsed between the first and second editions. There are three differ- Mill’s Conversion: ent conceptions of probability interacting throughout the history of probability: (1) Chance, or Propensity — for example, the bias of a bi- The Herschel Connection ased coin. (2) Judgmental Degree of Belief — for example, the de- gree of belief one should have that the bias is between .6 and .7 after 100 trials that produce 81 heads. (3) Long-Run Relative Frequency — for example, propor- tion of heads in a very large, or even infinite, number of flips of a given coin. It has been a matter of controversy, and continues to be to this day, which conceptions are basic. Strong advocates of one kind of prob- ability may deny that the others are important, or even that they make Brian Skyrms sense at all. University of California, Irvine, and Stanford University In the first edition of 1843, Mill espouses a frequency view of prob- ability that aligns well with his general material view of logic: Conclusions respecting the probability of a fact rest, not upon a different, but upon the very same basis, as conclu- sions respecting its certainly; namely, not our ignorance, © 2018 Brian Skyrms but our knowledge: knowledge obtained by experience, This work is licensed under a Creative Commons of the proportion between the cases in which the fact oc- Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License. -
Evolution and the Social Contract
Evolution and the Social Contract BRIAN SKYRMS The Tanner Lectures on Human Values Delivered at Te University of Michigan November 2, 2007 Peterson_TL28_pp i-250.indd 47 11/4/09 9:26 AM Brian Skyrms is Distinguished Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science and of Economics at the University of California, Irvine, and Pro- fessor of Philosophy and Religion at Stanford University. He graduated from Lehigh University with degrees in Economics and Philosophy and received his Ph.D. in Philosophy from the University of Pittsburgh. He is a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the National Academy of Sciences, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. His publications include Te Dynamics of Rational Delibera- tion (1990), Evolution of the Social Contract (1996), and Te Stag Hunt and the Evolution of Social Structure (2004). Peterson_TL28_pp i-250.indd 48 11/4/09 9:26 AM DEWEY AND DARWIN Almost one hundred years ago John Dewey wrote an essay titled “Te In- fuence of Darwin on Philosophy.” At that time, he believed that it was really too early to tell what the infuence of Darwin would be: “Te exact bearings upon philosophy of the new logical outlook are, of course, as yet, uncertain and inchoate.” But he was sure that it would not be in provid- ing new answers to traditional philosophical questions. Rather, it would raise new questions and open up new lines of thought. Toward the old questions of philosophy, Dewey took a radical stance: “Old questions are solved by disappearing . while new questions . -
Ten Great Ideas About Chance a Review by Mark Huber
BOOK REVIEW Ten Great Ideas about Chance A Review by Mark Huber Ten Great Ideas About Chance Having had Diaconis as my professor and postdoctoral By Persi Diaconis and Brian Skyrms advisor some two decades ago, I found the cadences and style of much of the text familiar. Throughout, the book Most people are familiar with the is written in an engaging and readable way. History and basic rules and formulas of prob- philosophy are woven together throughout the chapters, ability. For instance, the chance which, as the title implies, are organized thematically rather that event A occurs plus the chance than chronologically. that A does not occur must add to The story begins with the first great idea: Chance can be 1. But the question of why these measured. The word probability itself derives from the Latin rules exist and what exactly prob- probabilis, used by Cicero to denote that “...which for the abilities are, well, that is a question most part usually comes to pass” (De inventione, I.29.46, Princeton University Press, 2018 Press, Princeton University ISBN: 9780691174167 272 pages, Hardcover, often left unaddressed in prob- [2]). Even today, modern courtrooms in the United States ability courses ranging from the shy away from assigning numerical values to probabilities, elementary to graduate level. preferring statements such as “preponderance of the evi- Persi Diaconis and Brian Skyrms have taken up these dence” or “beyond a reasonable doubt.” Those dealing with questions in Ten Great Ideas About Chance, a whirlwind chance and the unknown are reluctant to assign an actual tour through the history and philosophy of probability. -
Norm Manipulation, Norm Evasion: Experimental Evidence
University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Behavioral Ethics Lab Philosophy, Politics and Economics 2013 Norm Manipulation, Norm Evasion: Experimental Evidence Cristina Bicchieri University of Pennsylvania, [email protected] Alex K. Chavez University of Pennsylvania Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/belab Part of the Behavioral Economics Commons, Ethics and Political Philosophy Commons, and the Social Psychology Commons Recommended Citation Bicchieri, C., & Chavez, A. K. (2013). Norm Manipulation, Norm Evasion: Experimental Evidence. Economics and Philosophy, 29 (2), 175-198. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0266267113000187 This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/belab/4 For more information, please contact [email protected]. Norm Manipulation, Norm Evasion: Experimental Evidence Abstract Using an economic bargaining game, we tested for the existence of two phenomena related to social norms, namely norm manipulation – the selection of an interpretation of the norm that best suits an individual – and norm evasion – the deliberate, private violation of a social norm. We found that the manipulation of a norm of fairness was characterized by a self-serving bias in beliefs about what constituted normatively acceptable behaviour, so that an individual who made an uneven bargaining offer not only genuinely believed it was fair, but also believed that recipients found it fair, even though recipients of the offer considered it to be unfair. In contrast, norm evasion operated as a highly explicit process. When they could do so without the recipient's knowledge, individuals made uneven offers despite knowing that their behaviour was unfair. Disciplines Behavioral Economics | Economics | Ethics and Political Philosophy | Social Psychology This journal article is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/belab/4 1 Norm Manipulation, Norm Evasion: Experimental Evidence Cristina Bicchieri and Alex K. -
Erte Xiao October, 2012
CURRICULUM VITAE Erte Xiao October, 2012 Personal Data Office Address Office: (412) 268-6780 (319E Porter Hall) Carnegie Mellon University Email: [email protected] 208 Porter Hall Homepage: http://www.andrew.cmu.edu/user/exiao/ Pittsburgh, PA, 15213 Education 2001- 2006 Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science and Department of Economics George Mason University, USA Degree: Ph.D Major: Economics 1998-2001 School of Business and Management, Central South University of China Degree: Masters of Management Science Major: Management Science & Engineering 1994-1998 School of Business and Management, Central South University of China Degree: Bachelor of Engineering Major: Industrial Foreign Trade Academic Positions Fall 2008-present, Assistant Professor, Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University Fall 2008-present, Affiliated Faculty, Pittsburgh Experimental Economics Laboratory (PEEL), University of Pittsburgh 2006-2008, PPE Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Pennsylvania 2006-2008, Lecturer, Operations and Information Management Department, Wharton School Research Interests Psychology and Economics, Design and Analysis of Economics Experiments, Judgment and Decision Making, Social Norms, Emotions. Journal articles 1. Erte Xiao (forthcoming) "Profit seeking punishment corrupts norm obedience" Games and Economic Behavior 2. Fangfang Tan and Erte Xiao (2012) “Peer punishment with third party approval in a social dilemma game” Economics Letters, 117, 589-591 1 3. Erte Xiao and Cristina Bicchieri (2012) “Words or deeds: Choose what to know about others”, Synthese, 187:49–63 4. Erte Xiao and Daniel Houser (2011) “Punish in Public”, Journal of Public Economics. 95, 1006– 1017 5. Cristina Bicchieri, Erte Xiao and Ryan Muldoon (2011) “Trustworthiness is a social norm, but trusting is not ”. -
Sex and Justice Author(S): Brian Skyrms Source: the Journal of Philosophy, Vol
Journal of Philosophy, Inc. Sex and Justice Author(s): Brian Skyrms Source: The Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 91, No. 6 (Jun., 1994), pp. 305-320 Published by: Journal of Philosophy, Inc. Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2940983 Accessed: 24/12/2009 18:39 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=jphil. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Journal of Philosophy, Inc. is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Journal of Philosophy. http://www.jstor.org SEX AND JUSTICE 305 SEX AND JUSTICE* Some have not hesitated to attributeto men in that state of nature the concept of just and unjust, without bothering to show that they must have had such a concept, or even that it would be useful to them. -
When Computer Simulations Lead Us Astray
The Dark Side of the Force: When computer simulations lead us astray and “model think” narrows our imagination — Pre conference draft for the Models and Simulation Conference, Paris, June 12-14 — Eckhart Arnold May 31th 2006 Abstract This paper is intended as a critical examination of the question of when the use of computer simulations is beneficial to scientific expla- nations. This objective is pursued in two steps: First, I try to establish clear criteria that simulations must meet in order to be explanatory. Basically, a simulation has explanatory power only if it includes all causally relevant factors of a given empirical configuration and if the simulation delivers stable results within the measurement inaccuracies of the input parameters. If a simulation is not explanatory, it can still be meaningful for exploratory purposes, but only under very restricted conditions. In the second step, I examine a few examples of Axelrod-style simulations as they have been used to understand the evolution of co- operation (Axelrod, Schußler)¨ and the evolution of the social contract (Skyrms). These simulations do not meet the criteria for explanatory validity and it can be shown, as I believe, that they lead us astray from the scientific problems they have been addressed to solve and at the same time bar our imagination against more conventional but still better approaches. 1 i Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 Different aims of computer simulations in science 1 3 Criteria for “explanatory” simulations 2 4 Simulations that fail to explain 7 4.1 Axelrod style simulations of the “evolution of cooperation” . 8 4.1.1 Typical features of Axelrod style simulations . -
Game Theory Model and Empirical Evidence
UC Irvine UC Irvine Electronic Theses and Dissertations Title Cheap Talk, Trust, and Cooperation in Networked Global Software Engineering: Game Theory Model and Empirical Evidence Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/99z4314v Author Wang, Yi Publication Date 2015 License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ 4.0 Peer reviewed|Thesis/dissertation eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE Cheap Talk, Trust, and Cooperation in Networked Global Software Engineering: Game Theory Model and Empirical Evidence DISSERTATION submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in Information and Computer Science by Yi Wang Dissertation Committee: Professor David F. Redmiles, Chair Professor Debra J. Richardson Professor Brian Skyrms 2015 Portion of Chapter 4 c 2013 IEEE. All other materials c 2015 Yi Wang DEDICATION To Natural & Intellectual Beauty ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF FIGURES vii LIST OF TABLES ix LIST OF ALGORITHMS x ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xi CURRICULUM VITAE xiii ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION xvi 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Motivating Observations . 3 1.1.1 Empirical Observations . 3 1.1.2 Summary . 6 1.2 Dissertation Outline . 7 1.2.1 Overview of Each Chapter . 7 1.2.2 How to Read This Dissertation . 9 2 Research Overview and Approach 10 2.1 Overall Research Questions . 10 2.2 Research Approach . 11 2.3 Overview of Potential Contributions . 12 3 Backgrounds 14 3.1 Related Work . 14 3.1.1 Trust in Globally Distributed Collaboration . 14 3.1.2 Informal, Non-work-related Communication in SE and CSCW . -
Curriculum Vitae
JAMES MICHAEL JOYCE Department of Philosophy The University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-1003 e-mail: [email protected] Phone: 734-330-6849 Fax: 734-763-8071 ACADEMIC POSITIONS 2012- : C. H. Langford Collegiate Professor of Philosophy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Professor of Statistics (courtesy), University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 2006- 2012: Professor of Philosophy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Professor of Statistics (courtesy), University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 1998 - 2006: Associate Professor of Philosophy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 2003 - 2005: Associate Professor of Statistics (courtesy), University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 1991 - 1998: Assistant Professor of Philosophy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 1987 - 1990: Adjunct Assistant Professor of Philosophy, University of the District of Columbia, Washington D.C. EDUCATION 1991 THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN; Ann Arbor, Michigan: Ph.D., Philosophy 1980 JOHN CARROLL UNIVERSITY; University Heights, Ohio: B. A., Philosophy and B. A. Mathematics (Magna cum Laude) TEACHING EXPERIENCE Graduate Seminars – Conceptual Foundations of Statistical Inference (with M. Woodroofe), Decision Theory, Probability and Conditionals, Proseminar: Mind and Language (with A. Gibbard), Proseminar: Science and Language (with A. Gibbard), Mind and Language (with T; Hofweber), Topics in Philosophy (with D. Velleman), Belief Revision and Naturalized Epistemology, Topics in Rational Choice, Role of Evidence in Belief Revision and Inductive Logic, Dark Matter in the Universe, Candidacy Seminar, -
1 Rule-Following As Coordination: a Game-Theoretic Approach Giacomo
Rule-following as coordination: A game-theoretic approach Giacomo Sillari University of Pennsylvania Make the following experiment: say “It‟s cold here” and mean “It‟s warm here”. Can you do it? Ludwig Wittgenstein, Philosophical Investigations, §510. I can‟t say “it‟s cold here” and mean “it‟s warm here”—at least, not without a little help from my friends. David Lewis, Convention. Abstract Famously, Kripke has argued that the central portion of the Philosophical Investigations describes both a skeptical paradox and its skeptical solution. Solving the paradox involves the element of the community, which determines correctness conditions for rule- following behavior. What do such conditions precisely consist of? Is it accurate to say that there is no fact to the matter of rule following? How are the correctness conditions sustained in the community? My answers to these questions revolve around the idea (cf. P.I. §§ 198, 199) that a rule is followed insofar as a convention is in place. In particular, I consider the game-theoretic definition of convention offered by David Lewis and I show that it illuminates important elements of the communitarian understanding of rule- following1. 0. Introduction The slogan that “meaning is normative” (and the normativity of rule-following in general) is best understood in the context of strategic interaction in a community of 1 Many thanks for useful commentaries and discussions to Peter Baumann, Cristina Bicchieri, Liz Camp, Ka-Yuan Cheng, Richard Eldridge, Francesco Guala, Simon Huttegger, Rohit Parikh, Jan Sprenger, Kevin Zollman, Brian Skyrms, and audiences at the 2008 Summer School Urrutia Elejalde on Social Norms, San 1 individuals. -
CURRICULUM VITAE April 2015
ROBERT AXELROD CURRICULUM VITAE April 2015 PERSONAL Walgreen Professor for the Study of Human Understanding Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy and Department of Political Science The University of Michigan 735 S. State St., Room 4116 Weill Hall Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 Phone: (734) 763-0099 FAX: (734) 763-9181 e-mail: axe at umich.edu home page: umich.edu/~axe/ EDUCATION B.A.: Mathematics (with honors), University of Chicago, 1964 M.A.: Political Science, Yale University, 1966 Ph.D.: Political Science (with distinction), Yale University, 1969 TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT Hudson Institute, summers 1963 and 1964 Office of the Secretary of Defense, International Security Affairs, Policy Planning Staff, management intern, summer 1965 Bureau of the Budget, International Division, budget analyst, summer 1966 RAND Corporation, Department of Economics, summer 1967 National Campaign Staff, Senator Eugene McCarthy, March to August, 1968 REGULAR EMPLOYMENT Acting Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, 1968-69 Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, 1969-74 (on leave at Dept. of International Relations, London School of Economics, 1971-72) Associate Professor of Political Science, and Research Associate of the Instituteof 1 Public Policy Studies, The University of Michigan, 1974-80 (on leave at Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, 1976-77) Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, Department of Political Science and Institute of Public PolicyStudies, The University of Michigan, 1980-87 (on leave at Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, 1981-82) Arthur W. BromageDistinguished University Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Michigan, 1987-2006 Mary Ann and Charles R. -
Simon M. Huttegger
Simon M. Huttegger Department of Logic and Philosophy of Science 3151 Social Science Plaza A, University of California Irvine Irvine, CA 92697-5100 [email protected] (949) 824-3220 ACADEMIC POSITIONS University of California, Irvine: Chancellor’s Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science 2021 - present Chair, Department of Logic and Philosophy of Science 2018 - present Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science 2015 - 2021 Director, M.A. Program in Philosophy, Political Science, and Economics (PPE) 2013 - 2018 Associate Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science 2010 - 2015 Assistant Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science 2008 - 2010 Konrad Lorenz Institute for Evolution and Cognition Research, Altenberg/Austria: Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2006 - 2008 Visiting Positions: Visiting Fellow, Department of Philosophy, Australian National University 2022 (planned) Visitor, Department of Philosophy, University of Groningen September 2019 Visitor, Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy, LMU Munich 2013-2014 Visitor, Department of Philosophy, University of Salzburg 2013-2014 EDUCATION Doctorate in Philosophy, Universität Salzburg 2006 MA in Philosophy, Universität Salzburg 2002 RESEARCH INTERESTS Philosophy of Science, Probability Theory, Game and Decision Theory, Philosophy of Biology HONORS AND AWARDS UCI Chancellor’s Fellow 2013 - 2016 Member of the Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences, UCI 2009 - Winner of the Philosophy of Science Association award for an outstanding article published in 2006 Philosophy of Science by a recent Ph.D. for the essay, "Evolution and the Explanation of Mean- ing" GRANTS UCI Graduate Growth Incentive Award, $ 30,000 2010 - 2011 PI of NSF project “Collaborative Research: Dynamic Perspectives on Costs and Conflicts 2010 - 2014 in Signaling Interactions”, $ 275,000.