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irncrgy Day i n " |cy Scenarios !o 2|H £nergf||iprspektive do ili CRQIIA: worf^:mcil SVIM -EUROPA- CONSEIL MONDIAL DE L'EHERGIE Izdavač: Hrvatsko energetsko društvo Zagreb, Savska cesta 163 Priredili: dr.sc. Goran Granić i dr.sc. Branka Jelavić Glavna i odgovorna urednica: dr.sc. Branka Jelavić Pomoćnici glavnog urednika: Daniel Golja, dipl.ing. Dino Novosel, dipl. ing. Grafički dizajn naslovnice i priprema za tisak: Martina Komerički, dipl.ing. Lektura: Prof. Anita Filipović Engleska lektura i prijevodi: Davorka Zmijarević Tisak: Naklada: AZP- Grafis-Samobor, Franjina 7 350 primjeraka Copyright: Hrvatsko energetsko društvo Za navode u člancima odgovorni su autori! Savska cesta 163, Zagreb CIP - Katalogizacija u publikaciji NACIONALNA I SVEUČILIŠNA KNJIŽNICA - DEMO BAZA UDK 620.9(063) FORUM Dan energije u Hrvatskoj (15 ; 2006 ; Zagreb) Energetske perspektive do 2050. : svijet - Europa - Hrvatska : zbornik radova /15. forum Dan energije u Hrvatskoj, Zagreb, 24. studeni 2006.; <priredili Goran Granić i Branka Jelavić ; <prijevod Davorka Zmijarević>. - Zagreb : Hrvatsko energetsko društvo, 2006. Tekst na hrv. ili engl. jeziku. - Bibliografija uz većinu radova. - Summaries. ISBN 953-7096-04-1 I. Energetika - Zbornik Energetske perspektive do 2050, 15. FORUM: DAN ENERGIJE U HRVATSKOJ ENERGETSKE PERSPEKTIVE DO 2050. GODINE 15th FORUM: ENERGY DAY IN CROATIA ENERGY POLICY SCENARIOS TO 2050 Kazalo / Contents Predgovor / Foreword 5 Referati / Papers 9 1. Goran Granić: Što se ostvarilo, a što su novi izazovi u energetskoj strategiji Hrvatske /Achievements and Challenges of the Croatian Energy Strategy 11 2. Ed Weeda: Svjetski energetski scenariji do 2050. godine - Europa / World Energy Scenarios to 2050: the Europe Region 43 3. Edgard Gnansounou: Monitoring ranjivosti energetske opskrbe / Monitoring the Vulnerability of Energy Supply 61 4. Tomislav Dragičević: Sigurnost opskrbe ugljikovodicima i razlike u pristupu definiciji pojma / Security of Supply of Hydrocarbonates and Differences in Approach to the Issue Definition 77 5. Norbert Wohlgemuth: Energetska sigurnost i obnovljiva energija u nerazvijenim zemljama / Energy Security and Renewable Energy in Least Developed Countries 85 6. Thor Henning Gulbrandsen: Energetsko planiranje - sredstvo održivog energetskog razvoja / Energy Planning - a Tool for Sustainable Energy Development 97 7. Zdenko Tonković: Nove tehnologije u prijenosu električne energije / New Technologies in Electricity Transmission 105 8. Stjepan Car, Mihajlo Firak, Bakir Đonlagić: Primjena vodika u elektroenergetici / Use of Hydrogen in the Power Sector 111 9. Juraj Kurek, Eduard Vivoda: Energetska iskaznica - certifikat energetske učinkovitosti u zgradarstvu kao značajna potpora smanjenju intenziteta potrošnje energije u RH do 2050. godine / Energy Certificate - Energy Performance Certificate for Buildings as a Significant Support to Reducing Consumption Intensity in Croatia by 2050 125 10. Natko Urli: Kako je jedan od najperspektivnijih izvora električne energije 21. stoljeća ostao nepoznat u Hrvatskoj / Why one of the Most Promising Sources of Electricity for the 21st Century Remains Unknown in Croatia 139 1 15. FORUM - DAN ENERGIJE U HRVATSKOJ 11. Ljubomir Miščević: Energetska učinkovitost u graditeljstvu kao temeljni preduvjet ostvarivosti dugoročnih energetskih strategija, zaštite okoliša i održivosti / Energy Efficiency in Construction as a Basic Prerequisite for Long- Term Energy Strategies, Environmental Protection and Sustainability 149 12. Marijan Kalea: Nekonvencionalni izvori energije i Strategija energetskog razvitka Hrvatske / Non-Conventional Energy Sources and Energy Development Strategy of Croatia 161 13. Vladimir Potočnik: Hrvatska energetska politika u funkciji regionalnog razvoja i zapošljavanja / Croatian Energy Policy as Function of Regional Development and Employment 173 I Energetske perspektive do 2050. PREDGOVOR U proteklih četrnaest godina Hrvatsko energetsko društvo je redovito, jedanput godišnje, organiziralo energetski forum, odnosno Dan energije u Hrvatskoj na različite teme važne za energetski sektor. Referati i prezentacije na forumima poslužile su da se stručnjaci i javnost upoznaju s problemima, trendovima i iskustvima drugih zemalja. Teme dosadašnjih foruma bile su: 1. „Hrvatska energetika u ratu i nakon rata", 1992. 2. „Nove tehnologije i gospodarenje energijom", 1993. 3. „Problemi tranzicije energetskog sektora", 1994. 4. „Cijene i tarifna politika u energetici", 1995. 5. „Očekivanja u potrošnji energije do 2020. godine", 1996 6. „Ciljevi, metodologija i iskustva regionalnog planiranja kao dijela nacionalnog energetskog sektora", 1997. 7. „Budućnost energetike nakon Kvota", 1998. 8. „Energetska tržišta i energetska efikasnost u zemljama tranzicije", 1999. 9. „Restrukturiranje, privatizacija i promjene tržišta umreženih energetskih sustava", 2000. 10. „Liberalizacija i privatizacija energetskog sektora u zemljama tranzicije Europske unije- Iskustva i perspektive", 2001. 11. „Problem regulacije na tržištu energetskih usluga", 2002. 12. „Potrošači energije u uvjetima otvorenog tržišta", 2003. 13. „Dugoročno planiranje i sigurnost opskrbe potrošača u uvjetima otvorenog tržišta", 2004. 14. „Energetske perspektive danas i sutra, SVIJET-EUROPA-HRVATSKA", 2005. Tema energetskih perspektiva zaokuplja cijelu energetsku zajednicu. Suočavanje s rastućim potrebama za energijom, a ograničenošću rezervi, terorističkim i ratnim prijetnjama te klimatskim promjenama, pokreće sve u traženju dugoročnih rješenja koja bi energetski razvoj učinila manje neizvjesnim i manje rizičnim. Tehnološki razvoj jedan je od odgovora na energetske probleme, ali nije i jedini. Povećanje energetske učinkovitosti spada u društveni izazov jer nadilazi problem tehnologije. Jednako tako, društveni izazov je i prihvaćanje lokacija za izgradnju energetskih postrojenja, jer zajednički s drugim društvenim izazovima može dati odgovor kako dalje graditi stabilnu energetiku. Energetska sigurnost je sinergija različitih utjecajnih čimbenika: tržišta energije, infrastrukture koja omogućava dobru povezanost, diverzifikacije izvora, većeg korištenja obnovljivih izvora energije te energetske učinkovitosti, a važno je naglasiti da su sigurni samo oni energetski sustavi koji su dobro uravnoteženi. World Energy Council (WEC) je pokrenuo izradu globalne studije „Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050" s ciljem da se na ukupnoj svjetskoj razini, kao i na regionalnoj, sagleda energetska budućnost. 1 15. FORUM - DAN ENERGIJE U HRVATSKOJ U želji da doprinesemo razumijevanju problema i traženju mogućih rješenja za svoj petnaesti Forum odabrali smo istu temu, ali s naglaskom na Hrvatsku u Europi, a Europu u svjetskim procesima. Vaš udjel na 15. Forumu približit će nas traženim odgovorima! U Zagrebu 15. studenog 2006. Dr. se. Goran Granić, dipl. ing. Predsjednik HED-a 1 Energetske perspektive do 2050. FOREWORD For the past fourteen years the Croatian Energy Association has been organising the annual Energy Forum, also known as Energy Day, addressing variety of topics which are significant for the energy sector. Papers and presentations for the Forum's meetings enabled the energy expert community and public to learn about issues, trends and experience of other countries. The themes of the previous Forum's meetings are as follows: 1. "Croatian Energy Sector during and after War Time", 1992. 2. "New Technologies and Energy Management", 1993. 3. "Energy Sector Transition Problems ", 1994. 4. "Prices and Tariff Policy in Energy Supply", 1995. 5. "Energy Demand Forecasts by the Year 2020", 1996 6. "Objectives, Methodology, and Experience in Regional Planning as part of National Energy Planning", 1997. 7. "Future Facing the Energy Sector following Kyoto Protocol", 1998. 8. „Energy Markets and Energy Efficiency in Transition Economy Countries ", 1999. 9. "Restructuring, Privatisation and Market Changes of Grid-bound Energy Systems", 2000. 10. "Energy Sector Liberalization and Privatization in Transition-Economy and EU Countries - Experiences and Perspectives ", 2001. 11. "Regulation Problems Relating to Energy Service Markets ", 2002. 12. "Energy Consumers in Open Market Conditions", 2003. 13. "Long-term Planning and Consumer Supply Safety in Open Market Conditions", 2004. 14. „Energy: its reality and outlooks, WORLD-EUROPE-CROATIA", 2005. Energy perspectives are in the focus of the whole energy community. Facing the growing needs for energy, limits to reserves, terrorist or war threats, and climate changes is the main driver in searching for long-term solutions which would make energy development less uncertain and less risky. Technological development is one of the answers to energy problems, but it is not the only one. Enhancing energy efficiency is a social challenge that goes beyond the technology problem. Equally, accepting locations for construction of energy facilities is also a social challenge, because, together with other social challenges, may give an answer how to develop stable energy industry. Energy security is synergy of various factors: energy market, infrastructure which facilitates good connectivity, diversification of resources, enhanced use of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency, and it is important to stress that the only secure energy systems are well-balanced ones. I 15. FORUM - DAN ENERGIJE U HRVATSKOJ World Energy Council (WEC) initiated the global study „Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050" with the aim to overview the future of energy at global and regional levels. With the wish to give our contribution to understanding
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