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Lower Waitaki Groundwater Quality Scenarios and Solutions Assessment for External Review Rev2

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Lower Waitaki Groundwater Quality Scenarios and Solutions Assessment for External Review Rev2 Predicting consequences of future Scenarios in the Waitaki Catchment: Lower Waitaki Groundwater quality Report R15/60 ISBN: 978-0-478-15235-7 (print) 978-0-478-15236-4 (web) 978-0-478-15237-1 (cd) Report prepared by Zeb Etheridge Environment Canterbury August 2015 Report R15/60 ISBN: 978-0-478-15235-7 (print) 978-0-478-15236-4 (web) 978-0-478-15237-1 (cd) PO Box 345 Christchurch 8140 Phone (03) 365 3828 Fax (03) 365 3194 75 Church Street PO Box 550 Timaru 7940 Phone (03) 687 7800 Fax (03) 687 7808 Website: www.ecan.govt.nz Customer Services Phone 0800 324 636 Predicting consequences of future Scenarios in the Waitaki Catchment: Lower Waitaki Groundwater quality Summary Background Environment Canterbury is working with the Lower Waitaki – South Coastal Canterbury Zone Committee and the local community to set nutrient load limits for the lower Waitaki catchment. The nutrient limits are a way of managing diffuse sources of nitrogen loss in the catchment. In this report we look at different nutrient load scenarios to explore what might happen under a range of land management approaches, to help the community make decisions on appropriate limits. The problem Groundwater is an important source of drinking water in the lower Waitaki catchment, with around 180 actively used drinking water supply wells and springs listed on our database. Increasing the extent and/or intensity of land use generally increases nitrate and potentially microbial and phosphorus contamination in groundwater. Our monitoring wells in the catchment have recorded increasing nitrate concentrations. Groundwater is also an important flow component in some surface water bodies. Increases in groundwater nitrate and phosphorus concentrations can impact on surface water quality. What we did We used spatial modelling to assess nitrate concentrations in shallow groundwater under a range of nitrogen load scenarios, developed during a collaborative community process. We used our model to indicate the relative change in groundwater quality that could be expected for each scenario, and the impact of this on the number of wells in which the nitrate drinking water standard could be exceeded. What we found Most of the scenarios involved relatively small nitrogen load increases and associated water quality changes. The exceptions to this were the LUC and Flex Cap 15 scenarios in the Hakataramea freshwater management unit, the Green Rules scenario in the Valley and Tributaries unit and the Industrial Load scenario in Whitneys Creek. These scenarios all allowed for an increase in nitrogen leaching loads, which resulted in an increased risk to drinking water supply wells. Because irrigation practice in the Northern Fan freshwater management unit is currently changing from border dyke to spray irrigation, we expect groundwater quality to continue to deteriorate here. Average groundwater quality is not likely to deteriorate in the Hakataramea and Greater Waikākahi areas, may get slightly worse in the mid-Waitaki north bank and south bank tributaries areas, and is likely to deteriorate in the mid-Waitaki south bank, Northern Fan Riverside and Whitneys Creek areas. The ZIP Addendum for the lower Waitaki recommends that all farming is undertaken under the Good Management Practice (GMP) guidelines. If actual farm management at present results in higher nitrogen leaching than GMP, and if GMP is successfully implemented, the nutrient load increases predicted under the Solutions package relative to the Current scenario will be reduced. What does it mean? Deteriorating groundwater quality can increase the risk that water quality does not meet the drinking water standard. The long-term net effect of irrigation conversion in the Northern Fan freshwater management unit could be an increase in the number of wells that do not meet the drinking water standard for nitrate. There are two community supply wells in the Northern Fan, as well as over 40 private wells used for drinking water, all of which may be vulnerable to nitrate concentration increases in the future. A monitoring, trigger level and action plan is being developed for the lower Waitaki as part of a separate report, which could be used to help manage this risk. Environment Canterbury Technical Report i Predicting consequences of future Scenarios in the Waitaki Catchment: Lower Waitaki Groundwater quality ii Environment Canterbury Technical Report Predicting consequences of future Scenarios in the Waitaki Catchment: Lower Waitaki Groundwater quality Table of contents Summary ................................................................................................................ i 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Purpose ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Scope .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.3 Legal and planning framework ........................................................................................ 1 2 Why we care about groundwater quality ...................................................... 2 3 Assessment methodology ............................................................................. 3 3.1 Nitrogen load scenarios .................................................................................................. 3 3.2 Methodology ................................................................................................................... 6 3.3 Freshwater management units ....................................................................................... 6 4 Hydrogeology and current water quality ...................................................... 8 4.1 Overview ......................................................................................................................... 8 4.2 Hakataramea .................................................................................................................. 8 4.3 Valley and tributaries ...................................................................................................... 9 4.3.1 Mid-Waitaki north bank ...................................................................................... 9 4.3.2 Mid-Waitaki south bank ...................................................................................... 9 4.3.3 Mid - Waitaki south bank tributaries .................................................................11 4.4 Northern Fan .................................................................................................................11 4.4.1 Whitneys Creek ................................................................................................13 4.4.2 Greater Waikākahi ...........................................................................................14 4.4.3 Lower-Waitaki Riverside ..................................................................................15 4.5 Current conditions summary .........................................................................................15 5 Risk interpretation ........................................................................................ 16 6 Nitrate load and soil drainage concentrations ........................................... 19 6.1 Methodology .................................................................................................................19 7 Scenarios assessment ................................................................................. 20 7.1 Assessment criteria.......................................................................................................20 7.2 Assessment method .....................................................................................................20 7.3 Hakataramea ................................................................................................................21 7.4 Mid-Waitaki north bank .................................................................................................21 7.5 Mid-Waitaki south bank ................................................................................................21 7.6 Mid-Waitaki south bank tributaries ................................................................................22 7.7 Lower-Waitaki Riverside ...............................................................................................23 7.8 Greater Waikākahi ........................................................................................................24 Environment Canterbury Technical Report iii Predicting consequences of future Scenarios in the Waitaki Catchment: Lower Waitaki Groundwater quality 7.9 Whitneys Creek .............................................................................................................25 8 Solutions Package assessment ................................................................... 25 9 Phosphorus ................................................................................................... 29 10 Contaminant microbiology ........................................................................... 29 11 Nitrate modelling results context ................................................................ 30 11.1 The modelling process ..................................................................................................30 11.2 Underlying assumptions and the uncertainty of model predictions ..............................30
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