The Submerged Passage of a Submarine Through the Territorial Sea —The Incident of a Chinese Atomic-Powered Submarine—
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1 May 2016 U.S.-Japan-China Trilateral Report by Sheila Smith
May 2016 U.S.-Japan-China Trilateral Report By Sheila Smith June 2016 Introduction The Forum on Asia-Pacific Security (FAPS) of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy (NCAFP) hosted a one-and-a-half day Track 1.5 meeting in New York City on May 24-25, 2016, with participants from the United States, Japan and China. The participant list for the trilateral meeting appears in the appendix. This report is not so much an effort to summarize the rich discussion at the trilateral meetings, as it is an effort to analyze the complex and fragile nature of trilateral relations today and to offer suggestions to all three sides for improvement in their ties with each other. In contrast to our November 2015 report, which focused on the interactions between and among the bilateral relationships that comprise this trilateral, this meeting focused on the changing regional security balance and the tension between national strategies and regional institutions which might impede cooperation in resolving the growing tensions in the Asia-Pacific. I. Context Japan, China, and the United States once again found common purpose in the wake of North Korean nuclear and missile tests in early 2016. Pyongyang’s continued insistence on developing a nuclear arsenal resulted in a new United Nations Security Council resolution and stronger sanctions on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). China took some time to agree, prompting concerns yet again in Tokyo and Washington that Beijing was reluctant to punish Kim Jong Un for his belligerence. After Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Affairs Wu Dawei visited Pyongyang in early February,1 Beijing’s position solidified, however, and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Washington, DC three weeks later to meet U.S. -
Comparative Connections a Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations
Comparative Connections A Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations US-China Relations: Friction and Cooperation in Run-up to Hu’s US Visit Bonnie Glaser, CSIS/Pacific Forum CSIS Brittany Billingsley, CSIS In the final quarter of 2010, China-US relations were marked by the now familiar pattern of friction and cooperation. Tensions spiked over North Korea, but common ground was eventually reached and a crisis was averted. President Obama‟s 10-day Asia tour, Secretary of State Clinton‟s two-week Asia trip, and US-ROK military exercises in the Yellow Sea further intensified Chinese concerns that the administration‟s “return to Asia” strategy is aimed at least at counterbalancing China, if not containing China‟s rise. In preparation for President Hu Jintao‟s state visit to the US in January 2011, Secretary Clinton stopped on Hainan Island for consultations with Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo and Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg visited Beijing. Progress toward resumption of the military-to-military relationship was made with the convening of a plenary session under the US-China Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA) and the 11th meeting of the Defense Consultative Talks. Differences over human rights were accentuated by the awarding of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo. Gaping differences over North Korea North Korea‟s provocative moves this quarter posed a challenge to the US-China bilateral relationship and Northeast Asian stability. The news that North Korea had built a sophisticated uranium enrichment plant took Washington and Beijing by surprise. As the two countries prepared to consider how to respond to the apparent North Korea violation of UN Security Council resolutions, Pyongyang shelled South Korea‟s Yeonpyeong Island, killing two civilians and two marines deployed on the island. -
NIDS China Security Report
NIDS China Security Report National Institute for Defense Studies, Japan NIDS China Security Report Published by: The National Institute for Defense Studies 2-2-1 Nakameguro, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8648, Japan Phone: +81-3-5721-7005 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.nids.go.jp Copyright © 2011 by the National Institute for Defense Studies, Japan All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form without written, prior permission from the publisher. This publication is a translation of the Japanese version originally published in March 2011. ISBN 978-4-939034-80-0 Printed in Japan Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................. i Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 China’s Efforts to Enhance Military Capabilities ......................................................................2 Multidimensional Features of Emerging China ........................................................................3 China’s International Strategy ...................................................................................... 5 China’s World View...................................................................................................................6 Cooperation and Competition ..................................................................................................7 Expanding Mission of the PLA .................................................................................................9 -
Shen Yueyue, Vice-Chairwoman of the National People's Congress
Zhang Baowen, vice-chairman of the National People’s Congress standing committee, meets with Vaira Vike-Freiberga, president of the World Leardership Alliance, before the opening ceremony Shen Yueyue, vice-chairwoman of the National People’s Congress standing committee, poses with delegates to the reception for celebrating the 25th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the Baltic states Contents Express News FOCUS 04 President Li Xiaolin Meets with Lord Powell, Member of the House of Lords of the UK Parliament / Wang Fan 04 Vice President Xie Yuan Meets with Delegation of Colombian Governors / Lin Zhichang 05 The Opening Ceremony of a Large-Scale Relics Touring Exhibition of Chinese Characters / Yu Xiaodong 05 Vice-President Lin Yi Meets with Premier of the British Virgin Islands / Wang Fan 10 06 Vice President Song Jingwu Meets with Mr. Kawamura Takeo / Fu Bo 06 Secretary-General Li Xikui Leads a Delegation to Jiangxi / Sun Yutian 07 China-Latin America and Caribbean 2016 Year of Culture Exchange / Wang Lijuan 07 The Chinese Culture Tour for Cultural Officials of Relevant Embassies in China 14 and Foreign Experts in Changsha / Gao Hui 08 Enjoy the Global “Music Journey” on the Doorstep / Chengdu Friendship Association 08 “Panda Chengdu”Shines in Ljubljana / Chengdu Friendship Association Global Vision 3020 09 G20 Hangzhou Summit Points the Way for the World Economy / He Yafei 2016 Imperial Springs International Forum 12 2016 Imperial Springs International Forum / Department of American & Oceanian Affairs -
Comparative Connections a Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations
Comparative Connections A Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations China-Korea Relations: Embracing the ROK Economically and the DPRK Politically Scott Snyder Asia Foundation/Pacific Forum CSIS See-won Byun, Asia Foundation The last quarter of 2009 raised hopes for developments in China’s relations with both Koreas. Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping received head-of-state treatment during his mid-December visit to South Korea. In Seoul, Xi presented a series of proposals to further the China-ROK strategic cooperative partnership, including pressing for a free trade agreement. President Lee Myung-bak and Premier Wen Jiabao held bilateral talks on Oct. 10 in Beijing on the sidelines of the China-ROK-Japan trilateral summit, which Lee used to promote his “grand bargain” on North Korean denuclearization. There were also several exchanges between China and the DPRK. In early October, Premier Wen led a large delegation to Pyongyang and proposed a comprehensive set of deals with North Korea. As the first Chinese premier to visit Pyongyang in 18 years, Wen was warmly hosted by Kim Jong-il. Following Wen’s visit, the director of the United Front Department of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) and Pyongyang’s official in charge of inter-Korean relations, Kim Yang- gon, made a five-day trip to China. President Hu Jintao reportedly extended a formal invitation to Kim Jong-il to visit China “at a convenient time” at his meeting with Choe Thae-bok, secretary of the WPK Central Committee and one of Kim’s closest aides, who led a WPK delegation to Beijing in late October. -
Comparative Connections a Triannual E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations
Comparative Connections A Triannual E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations Japan-China Relations: Another New Start James J. Przystup Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University Noda Yoshiko succeeded Kan Naoto as prime minister of Japan in early September and met President Hu Jintao at the G20 Summit in Cannes and the APEC meeting in Honolulu. On both occasions, they agreed to take steps to strengthen the mutually beneficial strategic relationship. They reiterated that commitment during Noda’s visit to China at the end of December. Meanwhile, maritime safety and security issues in the East China Sea and the South China Sea continued as a source of friction. In both areas, Tokyo worked to create a maritime crisis management mechanism while Chinese ships continued to intrude into the Japan’s EEZ extending from the Senkaku Islands, keeping alive contentious sovereignty issues. Tokyo and Beijing were able to resolve a November incident involving a Chinese fishing boat operating in Japanese waters. Repeated high-level efforts by Tokyo to resume negotiations on joint development in the East China Sea failed to yield any progress. Prime Minister Noda: another new beginning On Aug. 29, Noda Yoshihiko was elected president of the Democratic Party of Japan and on Sept. 2 succeeded Kan Naoto as prime minister. China’s media welcomed him with articles focusing on his earlier comments on history – that Japan’s wartime leaders, convicted of war crimes and enshrined in the Yasukuni Shrine, should no longer be considered war criminals – and his concerns with China’s military buildup, as well as its mixing of “economic growth and nationalism.” The Global Times characterized Noda as a “Hawk.” Early in his tenure, Noda telephoned Premier Wen Jiabao; they agreed to deepen the mutually beneficial strategic relationship and, looking to the 40th anniversary of normalization of relations in 2012, to improve sentiments among people in both countries. -
Japan-China Relations: a Volatile Mix: Natural Gas, a Submarine, a Shrine, and a Visa
Japan-China Relations: A Volatile Mix: Natural Gas, a Submarine, a Shrine, and a Visa James J. Przystup Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University The dispute over exploration of natural gas fields in the East China Sea continued to simmer. China proposed working-level discussions and the two sides met in Beijing. The results left Japanese officials wondering why they bothered to attend. Shortly thereafter, Japanese patrol aircraft tracked a Chinese nuclear submarine traveling submerged through Japanese territorial waters. Beijing’s apology paved the way for summit-level talks between Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro and China’s President Hu Jintao and later Premier Wen Jiabao. The talks only highlighted issues of Yasukuni Shrine and history in the bilateral relationship, underscoring national sensitivities in both countries. In Japan, reaction centered on graduating China from Japan’s ODA program; this was not appreciated in Beijing. In the meantime, Tokyo issued Japan’s new National Defense Program Guidelines, which highlighted China’s military modernization and increasing naval activities, concerns which Beijing found groundless. Finally, Japan approved a visa for Taiwan’s former President Lee Teng-hui, in Beijing’s eyes a “splittist” and advocate of Taiwanese independence. Also during the quarter, commercial and economic relations continued to expand. The phenomenon of bifurcated political and economic relations with China is now characterized in Japan as “cold politics; hot economics.” An end of year Asahi Shimbun editorial asked: “can this be resolved?” Exploration in the East China Sea China’s continuing exploration in the Chunxiao natural gas field, an area of the East China Sea adjacent to the mid-point demarcation line between China and Japan, raised issues of sovereignty and natural resource development. -
Evolving Sino-Japanese Tensions
Old Scores and New Grudges: Evolving Sino-Japanese Tensions Asia Report N°258 | 24 July 2014 International Crisis Group Headquarters Avenue Louise 149 1050 Brussels, Belgium Tel: +32 2 502 90 38 Fax: +32 2 502 50 38 [email protected] Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... i Recommendations..................................................................................................................... iii I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 II. The Issues ......................................................................................................................... 3 A. The Islands ................................................................................................................. 3 B. The History ................................................................................................................ 4 C. Security ...................................................................................................................... 7 D. The ADIZ .................................................................................................................... 10 E. The Perceptions: “Troublemaker” vs “Middle Kingdom” ......................................... 14 III. The Strategies .................................................................................................................. -
Evolving Sino-Japanese Tensions
Old Scores and New Grudges: Evolving Sino-Japanese Tensions Asia Report N°258 | 24 July 2014 International Crisis Group Headquarters Avenue Louise 149 1050 Brussels, Belgium Tel: +32 2 502 90 38 Fax: +32 2 502 50 38 [email protected] Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... i Recommendations..................................................................................................................... iii I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 II. The Issues ......................................................................................................................... 3 A. The Islands ................................................................................................................. 3 B. The History ................................................................................................................ 4 C. Security ...................................................................................................................... 7 D. The ADIZ .................................................................................................................... 10 E. The Perceptions: “Troublemaker” vs “Middle Kingdom” ......................................... 14 III. The Strategies .................................................................................................................. -
1 INTRODUCTION Accounts of Taiwan and Its History Have Been
INTRODUCTION Accounts of Taiwan and its history have been profoundly influenced by cultural and political ideologies, which have fluctuated radically over the past four centuries on the island. Small parts of Taiwan were ruled by the Dutch (1624-1662), Spanish (1626-1642), Zheng Chenggong (Koxinga)1 and his heirs (1662-1683), and a large part by Qing Dynasty China (1683-1895). Thereafter, the whole of the island was under Japanese control for half a century (1895-1945), and after World War II, it was taken over by the Republic of China (ROC), being governed for more than four decades by the authoritarian government of Chiang Kai-shek and the Kuomintang (KMT), or Chinese Nationalist Party,2 before democratization began in earnest in the late 1980s. Taiwan’s convoluted history and current troubled relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which claims Taiwan is “a renegade province” of the PRC, has complicated the world’s understanding of Taiwan. Many Western studies of Taiwan, primarily concerning its politics and economic development, have been conducted as an 1 Pinyin is employed in this dissertation as its Mandarin romanization system, though there are exceptions for names of places which have been officially transliterated differently, and for names of people who have been known to Western scholarship in different forms of romanization. In these cases, the more popular forms are used. All Chinese names are presented in the same order as they would appear in Chinese, surname first, given name last, unless the work is published in English, in which case the surname appears last. -
© 2021 Thomas Reilly ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
2021 Thomas Reilly ALL RIGHTS RESERVED WORKING WITH WHAT THEY HAVE: THE INSTITUTIONAL AND POLITICAL DETERMINANTS OF DIVERSIONARY ACTION By THOMAS REILLY A dissertation submitted to the Graduate School-New Brunswick Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Program in Political Science written under the direction of Jack S. Levy and approved by ________________________ ________________________ ________________________ ________________________ New Brunswick, New Jersey January 2021 ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION WORKING WITH WHAT THEY HAVE: THE INSTITUTIONAL AND POLITICAL DETERMINANTS OF DIVERSIONARY ACTION By THOMAS REILLY Dissertation Director: Jack S. Levy This dissertation broadens the diversionary theory of war to account for both lower-levels of foreign conflict and the breadth of possible diversionary actions for authoritarian regimes. First, I present a theory of diversionary choice that argues a particular regime-types available institutions and necessary centers of political power are going to be the main determinant in choosing a potential diversionary action. I posit that the more institutionalized a regime is, the severity of a chosen diversion will be inversely correlated with said institutional strength and complexity. As authoritarian regimes are not automatically prone to pursue the archetypical “rally-round-the-flag” effect due to the lessened influence of the broader population on governing stability and continuity, chosen diversions will make most use of extant institutions in order to enhance or preserve the critical segments of political power. Greater institutionalization allows for the exploitation and manipulation of smaller diversions to derive political benefits, while weaker institutions require a direct-effects approach or more grand and engaging spectacles. -
North Korea's Rocket Launch
Pacific Forum CSIS Comparative Connections A Triannual E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations edited by Carl Baker Brad Glosserman January – April 2012 Vol. 14, No.1 May 2012 http://csis.org/program/comparative-connections Pacific Forum CSIS Based in Honolulu, Hawaii, the Pacific Forum CSIS operates as the autonomous Asia- Pacific arm of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Founded in 1975, the thrust of the Forum’s work is to help develop cooperative policies in the Asia- Pacific region through debate and analyses undertaken with the region’s leaders in the academic, government, and corporate arenas. The Forum’s programs encompass current and emerging political, security, economic/business, and oceans policy issues. It collaborates with a network of more than 30 research institutes around the Pacific Rim, drawing on Asian perspectives and disseminating its projects’ findings and recommendations to opinion leaders, governments, and publics throughout the region. An international Board of Governors guides the Pacific Forum’s work. The Forum is funded by grants from foundations, corporations, individuals, and governments, the latter providing a small percentage of the forum’s annual budget. The Forum’s studies are objective and nonpartisan and it does not engage in classified or proprietary work. Comparative Connections A Triannual E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations Edited by Carl Baker and Brad Glosserman Volume 14, Number 1 January – April 2012 Honolulu, Hawaii May 2012 Comparative Connections A Triannual Electronic Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations Bilateral relationships in East Asia have long been important to regional peace and stability, but in the post-Cold War environment, these relationships have taken on a new strategic rationale as countries pursue multiple ties, beyond those with the US, to realize complex political, economic, and security interests.