Poisson Point Processes and Subordinators
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Poisson Representations of Branching Markov and Measure-Valued
The Annals of Probability 2011, Vol. 39, No. 3, 939–984 DOI: 10.1214/10-AOP574 c Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2011 POISSON REPRESENTATIONS OF BRANCHING MARKOV AND MEASURE-VALUED BRANCHING PROCESSES By Thomas G. Kurtz1 and Eliane R. Rodrigues2 University of Wisconsin, Madison and UNAM Representations of branching Markov processes and their measure- valued limits in terms of countable systems of particles are con- structed for models with spatially varying birth and death rates. Each particle has a location and a “level,” but unlike earlier con- structions, the levels change with time. In fact, death of a particle occurs only when the level of the particle crosses a specified level r, or for the limiting models, hits infinity. For branching Markov pro- cesses, at each time t, conditioned on the state of the process, the levels are independent and uniformly distributed on [0,r]. For the limiting measure-valued process, at each time t, the joint distribu- tion of locations and levels is conditionally Poisson distributed with mean measure K(t) × Λ, where Λ denotes Lebesgue measure, and K is the desired measure-valued process. The representation simplifies or gives alternative proofs for a vari- ety of calculations and results including conditioning on extinction or nonextinction, Harris’s convergence theorem for supercritical branch- ing processes, and diffusion approximations for processes in random environments. 1. Introduction. Measure-valued processes arise naturally as infinite sys- tem limits of empirical measures of finite particle systems. A number of ap- proaches have been developed which preserve distinct particles in the limit and which give a representation of the measure-valued process as a transfor- mation of the limiting infinite particle system. -
Poisson Processes Stochastic Processes
Poisson Processes Stochastic Processes UC3M Feb. 2012 Exponential random variables A random variable T has exponential distribution with rate λ > 0 if its probability density function can been written as −λt f (t) = λe 1(0;+1)(t) We summarize the above by T ∼ exp(λ): The cumulative distribution function of a exponential random variable is −λt F (t) = P(T ≤ t) = 1 − e 1(0;+1)(t) And the tail, expectation and variance are P(T > t) = e−λt ; E[T ] = λ−1; and Var(T ) = E[T ] = λ−2 The exponential random variable has the lack of memory property P(T > t + sjT > t) = P(T > s) Exponencial races In what follows, T1;:::; Tn are independent r.v., with Ti ∼ exp(λi ). P1: min(T1;:::; Tn) ∼ exp(λ1 + ··· + λn) . P2 λ1 P(T1 < T2) = λ1 + λ2 P3: λi P(Ti = min(T1;:::; Tn)) = λ1 + ··· + λn P4: If λi = λ and Sn = T1 + ··· + Tn ∼ Γ(n; λ). That is, Sn has probability density function (λs)n−1 f (s) = λe−λs 1 (s) Sn (n − 1)! (0;+1) The Poisson Process as a renewal process Let T1; T2;::: be a sequence of i.i.d. nonnegative r.v. (interarrival times). Define the arrival times Sn = T1 + ··· + Tn if n ≥ 1 and S0 = 0: The process N(t) = maxfn : Sn ≤ tg; is called Renewal Process. If the common distribution of the times is the exponential distribution with rate λ then process is called Poisson Process of with rate λ. Lemma. N(t) ∼ Poisson(λt) and N(t + s) − N(s); t ≥ 0; is a Poisson process independent of N(s); t ≥ 0 The Poisson Process as a L´evy Process A stochastic process fX (t); t ≥ 0g is a L´evyProcess if it verifies the following properties: 1. -
Completely Random Measures and Related Models
CRMs Sinead Williamson Background Completely random measures and related L´evyprocesses Completely models random measures Applications Normalized Sinead Williamson random measures Neutral-to-the- right processes Computational and Biological Learning Laboratory Exchangeable University of Cambridge matrices January 20, 2011 Outline CRMs Sinead Williamson 1 Background Background L´evyprocesses Completely 2 L´evyprocesses random measures Applications 3 Completely random measures Normalized random measures Neutral-to-the- right processes 4 Applications Exchangeable matrices Normalized random measures Neutral-to-the-right processes Exchangeable matrices A little measure theory CRMs Sinead Williamson Set: e.g. Integers, real numbers, people called James. Background May be finite, countably infinite, or uncountably infinite. L´evyprocesses Completely Algebra: Class T of subsets of a set T s.t. random measures 1 T 2 T . 2 If A 2 T , then Ac 2 T . Applications K Normalized 3 If A1;:::; AK 2 T , then [ Ak = A1 [ A2 [ ::: AK 2 T random k=1 measures (closed under finite unions). Neutral-to-the- right K processes 4 If A1;:::; AK 2 T , then \k=1Ak = A1 \ A2 \ ::: AK 2 T Exchangeable matrices (closed under finite intersections). σ-Algebra: Algebra that is closed under countably infinite unions and intersections. A little measure theory CRMs Sinead Williamson Background L´evyprocesses Measurable space: Combination (T ; T ) of a set and a Completely σ-algebra on that set. random measures Measure: Function µ between a σ-field and the positive Applications reals (+ 1) s.t. Normalized random measures 1 µ(;) = 0. Neutral-to-the- right 2 For all countable collections of disjoint sets processes P Exchangeable A1; A2; · · · 2 T , µ([k Ak ) = µ(Ak ). -
POISSON PROCESSES 1.1. the Rutherford-Chadwick-Ellis
POISSON PROCESSES 1. THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS 1.1. The Rutherford-Chadwick-Ellis Experiment. About 90 years ago Ernest Rutherford and his collaborators at the Cavendish Laboratory in Cambridge conducted a series of pathbreaking experiments on radioactive decay. In one of these, a radioactive substance was observed in N = 2608 time intervals of 7.5 seconds each, and the number of decay particles reaching a counter during each period was recorded. The table below shows the number Nk of these time periods in which exactly k decays were observed for k = 0,1,2,...,9. Also shown is N pk where k pk = (3.87) exp 3.87 =k! {− g The parameter value 3.87 was chosen because it is the mean number of decays/period for Rutherford’s data. k Nk N pk k Nk N pk 0 57 54.4 6 273 253.8 1 203 210.5 7 139 140.3 2 383 407.4 8 45 67.9 3 525 525.5 9 27 29.2 4 532 508.4 10 16 17.1 5 408 393.5 ≥ This is typical of what happens in many situations where counts of occurences of some sort are recorded: the Poisson distribution often provides an accurate – sometimes remarkably ac- curate – fit. Why? 1.2. Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution. The ubiquity of the Poisson distri- bution in nature stems in large part from its connection to the Binomial and Hypergeometric distributions. The Binomial-(N ,p) distribution is the distribution of the number of successes in N independent Bernoulli trials, each with success probability p. -
Introduction to Lévy Processes
Introduction to L´evyprocesses Graduate lecture 22 January 2004 Matthias Winkel Departmental lecturer (Institute of Actuaries and Aon lecturer in Statistics) 1. Random walks and continuous-time limits 2. Examples 3. Classification and construction of L´evy processes 4. Examples 5. Poisson point processes and simulation 1 1. Random walks and continuous-time limits 4 Definition 1 Let Yk, k ≥ 1, be i.i.d. Then n X 0 Sn = Yk, n ∈ N, k=1 is called a random walk. -4 0 8 16 Random walks have stationary and independent increments Yk = Sk − Sk−1, k ≥ 1. Stationarity means the Yk have identical distribution. Definition 2 A right-continuous process Xt, t ∈ R+, with stationary independent increments is called L´evy process. 2 Page 1 What are Sn, n ≥ 0, and Xt, t ≥ 0? Stochastic processes; mathematical objects, well-defined, with many nice properties that can be studied. If you don’t like this, think of a model for a stock price evolving with time. There are also many other applications. If you worry about negative values, think of log’s of prices. What does Definition 2 mean? Increments , = 1 , are independent and Xtk − Xtk−1 k , . , n , = 1 for all 0 = . Xtk − Xtk−1 ∼ Xtk−tk−1 k , . , n t0 < . < tn Right-continuity refers to the sample paths (realisations). 3 Can we obtain L´evyprocesses from random walks? What happens e.g. if we let the time unit tend to zero, i.e. take a more and more remote look at our random walk? If we focus at a fixed time, 1 say, and speed up the process so as to make n steps per time unit, we know what happens, the answer is given by the Central Limit Theorem: 2 Theorem 1 (Lindeberg-L´evy) If σ = V ar(Y1) < ∞, then Sn − (Sn) √E → Z ∼ N(0, σ2) in distribution, as n → ∞. -
Spatio-Temporal Cluster Detection and Local Moran Statistics of Point Processes
Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations Mathematics & Statistics Spring 2019 Spatio-Temporal Cluster Detection and Local Moran Statistics of Point Processes Jennifer L. Matthews Old Dominion University Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/mathstat_etds Part of the Applied Statistics Commons, and the Biostatistics Commons Recommended Citation Matthews, Jennifer L.. "Spatio-Temporal Cluster Detection and Local Moran Statistics of Point Processes" (2019). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Dissertation, Mathematics & Statistics, Old Dominion University, DOI: 10.25777/3mps-rk62 https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/mathstat_etds/46 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Mathematics & Statistics at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ABSTRACT Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited SPATIO-TEMPORAL CLUSTER DETECTION AND LOCAL MORAN STATISTICS OF POINT PROCESSES Jennifer L. Matthews Commander, United States Navy Old Dominion University, 2019 Director: Dr. Norou Diawara Moran's index is a statistic that measures spatial dependence, quantifying the degree of dispersion or clustering of point processes and events in some location/area. Recognizing that a single Moran's index may not give a sufficient summary of the spatial autocorrelation measure, a local -
Levy Processes
LÉVY PROCESSES, STABLE PROCESSES, AND SUBORDINATORS STEVEN P.LALLEY 1. DEFINITIONSAND EXAMPLES d Definition 1.1. A continuous–time process Xt = X(t ) t 0 with values in R (or, more generally, in an abelian topological groupG ) isf called a Lévyg ≥ process if (1) its sample paths are right-continuous and have left limits at every time point t , and (2) it has stationary, independent increments, that is: (a) For all 0 = t0 < t1 < < tk , the increments X(ti ) X(ti 1) are independent. − (b) For all 0 s t the··· random variables X(t ) X−(s ) and X(t s ) X(0) have the same distribution.≤ ≤ − − − The default initial condition is X0 = 0. A subordinator is a real-valued Lévy process with nondecreasing sample paths. A stable process is a real-valued Lévy process Xt t 0 with ≥ initial value X0 = 0 that satisfies the self-similarity property f g 1/α (1.1) Xt =t =D X1 t > 0. 8 The parameter α is called the exponent of the process. Example 1.1. The most fundamental Lévy processes are the Wiener process and the Poisson process. The Poisson process is a subordinator, but is not stable; the Wiener process is stable, with exponent α = 2. Any linear combination of independent Lévy processes is again a Lévy process, so, for instance, if the Wiener process Wt and the Poisson process Nt are independent then Wt Nt is a Lévy process. More important, linear combinations of independent Poisson− processes are Lévy processes: these are special cases of what are called compound Poisson processes: see sec. -
Some Theory for the Analysis of Random Fields Diplomarbeit
Philipp Pluch Some Theory for the Analysis of Random Fields With Applications to Geostatistics Diplomarbeit zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Diplom-Ingenieur Studium der Technischen Mathematik Universit¨at Klagenfurt Fakult¨at fur¨ Wirtschaftswissenschaften und Informatik Begutachter: O.Univ.-Prof.Dr. Jurgen¨ Pilz Institut fur¨ Mathematik September 2004 To my parents, Verena and all my friends Ehrenw¨ortliche Erkl¨arung Ich erkl¨are ehrenw¨ortlich, dass ich die vorliegende Schrift verfasst und die mit ihr unmittelbar verbundenen Arbeiten selbst durchgefuhrt¨ habe. Die in der Schrift verwendete Literatur sowie das Ausmaß der mir im gesamten Arbeitsvorgang gew¨ahrten Unterstutzung¨ sind ausnahmslos angegeben. Die Schrift ist noch keiner anderen Prufungsb¨ eh¨orde vorgelegt worden. St. Urban, 29 September 2004 Preface I remember when I first was at our univeristy - I walked inside this large corridor called ’Aula’ and had no idea what I should do, didn’t know what I should study, I had interest in Psychology or Media Studies, and now I’m sitting in my office at the university, five years later, writing my final lines for my master degree theses in mathematics. A long and also hard but so beautiful way was gone, I remember at the beginning, the first mathematic courses in discrete mathematics, how difficult that was for me, the abstract thinking, my first exams and now I have finished them all, I mastered them. I have to thank so many people and I will do so now. First I have to thank my parents, who always believed in me, who gave me financial support and who had to fight with my mood when I was working hard. -
Completely Random Measures
Pacific Journal of Mathematics COMPLETELY RANDOM MEASURES JOHN FRANK CHARLES KINGMAN Vol. 21, No. 1 November 1967 PACIFIC JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICS Vol. 21, No. 1, 1967 COMPLETELY RANDOM MEASURES J. F. C. KlNGMAN The theory of stochastic processes is concerned with random functions defined on some parameter set. This paper is con- cerned with the case, which occurs naturally in some practical situations, in which the parameter set is a ^-algebra of subsets of some space, and the random functions are all measures on this space. Among all such random measures are distinguished some which are called completely random, which have the property that the values they take on disjoint subsets are independent. A representation theorem is proved for all completely random measures satisfying a weak finiteness condi- tion, and as a consequence it is shown that all such measures are necessarily purely atomic. 1. Stochastic processes X(t) whose realisation are nondecreasing functions of a real parameter t occur in a number of applications of probability theory. For instance, the number of events of a point process in the interval (0, t), the 'load function' of a queue input [2], the amount of water entering a reservoir in time t, and the local time process in a Markov chain ([8], [7] §14), are all processes of this type. In many applications the function X(t) enters as a convenient way of representing a measure on the real line, the Stieltjes measure Φ defined as the unique Borel measure for which (1) Φ(a, b] = X(b + ) - X(a + ), (-co <α< b< oo). -
Laplace Transform Identities for the Volume of Stopping Sets Based on Poisson Point Processes
Laplace transform identities for the volume of stopping sets based on Poisson point processes Nicolas Privault Division of Mathematical Sciences School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Nanyang Technological University 21 Nanyang Link Singapore 637371 November 9, 2015 Abstract We derive Laplace transform identities for the volume content of random stopping sets based on Poisson point processes. Our results are based on antic- ipating Girsanov identities for Poisson point processes under a cyclic vanishing condition for a finite difference gradient. This approach does not require classi- cal assumptions based on set-indexed martingales and the (partial) ordering of index sets. The examples treated focus on stopping sets in finite volume, and include the random missed volume of Poisson convex hulls. Key words: Poisson point processes; stopping sets; gamma-type distributions; Gir- sanov identities; anticipating stochastic calculus. Mathematics Subject Classification (2010): 60D05; 60G40; 60G57; 60G48; 60H07. 1 Introduction Gamma-type results for the area of random domains constructed from a finite number of \typical" Poisson distributed points, and more generally known as complementary theorems, have been obtained in [7], cf. e.g. Theorem 10.4.8 in [14]. 1 Stopping sets are random sets that carry over the notion of stopping time to set- indexed processes, cf. Definition 2.27 in [8], based on stochastic calculus for set- indexed martingales, cf. e.g. [6]. Gamma-type results for the probability law of the volume content of random sets have been obtained in the framework of stopping sets in [15], via Laplace transforms, using the martingale property of set-indexed stochas- tic exponentials, see [16] for the strong Markov property for point processes, cf. -
Rescaling Marked Point Processes
1 Rescaling Marked Point Processes David Vere-Jones1, Victoria University of Wellington Frederic Paik Schoenberg2, University of California, Los Angeles Abstract In 1971, Meyer showed how one could use the compensator to rescale a multivari- ate point process, forming independent Poisson processes with intensity one. Meyer’s result has been generalized to multi-dimensional point processes. Here, we explore gen- eralization of Meyer’s theorem to the case of marked point processes, where the mark space may be quite general. Assuming simplicity and the existence of a conditional intensity, we show that a marked point process can be transformed into a compound Poisson process with unit total rate and a fixed mark distribution. ** Key words: residual analysis, random time change, Meyer’s theorem, model evaluation, intensity, compensator, Poisson process. ** 1 Department of Mathematics, Victoria University of Wellington, P.O. Box 196, Welling- ton, New Zealand. [email protected] 2 Department of Statistics, 8142 Math-Science Building, University of California, Los Angeles, 90095-1554. [email protected] Vere-Jones and Schoenberg. Rescaling Marked Point Processes 2 1 Introduction. Before other matters, both authors would like express their appreciation to Daryl for his stimulating and forgiving company, and to wish him a long and fruitful continuation of his mathematical, musical, woodworking, and many other activities. In particular, it is a real pleasure for the first author to acknowledge his gratitude to Daryl for his hard work, good humour, generosity and continuing friendship throughout the development of (innumerable draft versions and now even two editions of) their joint text on point processes. -
Lecture 26 : Poisson Point Processes
Lecture 26 : Poisson Point Processes STAT205 Lecturer: Jim Pitman Scribe: Ben Hough <[email protected]> In this lecture, we consider a measure space (S; S; µ), where µ is a σ-finite measure (i.e. S may be written as a disjoint union of sets of finite µ-measure). 26.1 The Poisson Point Process Definition 26.1 A Poisson Point Process (P.P.P.) with intensity µ is a collection of random variables N(A; !), A 2 S, ! 2 Ω defined on a probability space (Ω; F; P) such that: 1. N(·; !) is a counting measure on (S; S) for each ! 2 Ω. 2. N(A; ·) is Poisson with mean µ(A): − P e µ(A)(µ(A))k (N(A) = k) = k! all A 2 S. 3. If A1, A2, ... are disjoint sets then N(A1; ·), N(A2; ·), ... are independent random variables. Theorem 26.2 P.P.P.'s exist. Proof Sketch: It's not enough to quote Kolmogorov's Extension Theorem. The only convincing argument is to give an explicit constuction from sequences of independent random variables. We begin by considering the case µ(S) < 1. P µ(A) 1. Take X1, X2, ... to be i.i.d. random variables so that (Xi 2 A) = µ(S) . 2. Take N(S) to be a Poisson random variable with mean µ(S), independent of the Xi's. Assume all random varibles are defined on the same probability space (Ω; F; P). N(S) 3. Define N(A) = i=1 1(Xi2A), for all A 2 S. P 1 Now verify that this N(A; !) is a P.P.P.