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Serbia Floods 2014

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Serbia Floods 2014 SERBIA FLOODS 2014 Belgrade, 2014 SERBIA FLOODS 2014 Belgrade, 2014 Serbia Floods 2014 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... 4 PART 1 - EFFECTS OF THE DISASTER ............................................................................. 9 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 9 1.1. Brief description of the disaster ............................................................................... 9 1.2. The response to the disaster ................................................................................. 12 1.3. The Recovery Needs Assessment ........................................................................ 13 2. ESTIMATION OF DISASTER EFFECTS .................................................................. 15 2.1. Population Affected ............................................................................................... 15 2.2. Description and Valuation of Damages and Losses .............................................. 15 2.2.1. Summary of damages and losses .................................................................. 16 2.2.2 Sectorial damages and losses ....................................................................... 19 2.2.3 Cross-Cutting Issues ...................................................................................... 94 2.2.3.2 Governance ................................................................................................. 100 2.2.3.3 Gender......................................................................................................... 105 PART 2 - IMPACTS OF THE DISASTER .......................................................................... 110 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 110 2 MACROECONOMIC IMPACT ................................................................................ 110 2.1 Pre-disaster economic context ............................................................................ 110 2.2 Disaster impact on gross domestic product (GDP) .............................................. 111 2.3 Disaster impact on fiscal position ........................................................................ 113 2.4 Disaster impact on balance of payments ............................................................. 114 2.5 Risks to the near-term outlook ............................................................................ 115 3 Human development impact ................................................................................... 115 4 IMPACT ON LIVELIHOODS, EMPLOYMENT AND PERSONAL INCOME ............ 117 4.1 Assessment of Disaster Effects ........................................................................... 117 4.2 Effects on Infrastructure and Physical Assets ..................................................... 118 4.3 Estimation of Income Losses .............................................................................. 119 4.3.1 Loss of income in Agriculture ....................................................................... 119 4.3.2 Immediate employment loss of entrepreneurs and employees in enterprises active in industry, trade and services .......................................................................... 120 4.3.3 Medium-term employment loss of entrepreneurs and employees in enterprises active in industry, trade and services .......................................................................... 120 4.3.4 Culture sector .............................................................................................. 121 4.3.5 Informal economy ........................................................................................ 121 Page 1 of 160 Serbia Floods 2014 4.3.6 Women non-paid house work ...................................................................... 122 5 IMPACT ON POVERTY ......................................................................................... 122 5.1 Effects on Vulnerable Groups ............................................................................. 124 5.2 Findings by main vulnerable groups .................................................................... 125 5.3 Vulnerable activities and factors reinforcing vulnerability..................................... 128 PART 3 – POST-DISASTER RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION ............................. 131 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 131 2. RECOVERY NEEDS .............................................................................................. 131 2.1 Recovery of Personal and Household Income .................................................... 132 2.2 Gender responsive recovery ............................................................................... 133 2.3 Recovery of access to and supply of basic services ............................................ 133 2.3.1 Housing ....................................................................................................... 133 2.3.2 Health .......................................................................................................... 133 2.3.3 Education ..................................................................................................... 134 2.3.4 Culture ......................................................................................................... 134 2.3.5 Water and sanitation .................................................................................... 135 2.4 Recovery of production ....................................................................................... 135 2.4.1 Agriculture ................................................................................................... 135 2.4.2 Manufacturing .............................................................................................. 136 2.4.3 Trade ........................................................................................................... 136 2.4.4 Tourism ........................................................................................................ 137 2.4.5 Mining and energy ....................................................................................... 137 2.5 Recovery of governance ..................................................................................... 137 2.6 Environmental recovery ...................................................................................... 138 3. RECONSTRUCTION REQUIREMENTS ................................................................ 138 3.1 Sector-by-sector reconstruction requirements ..................................................... 139 3.1.1 Agriculture, livestock and water resources ................................................... 139 3.1.2 Manufacturing .............................................................................................. 140 3.1.3 Trade ........................................................................................................... 140 3.1.4 Tourism ........................................................................................................ 140 3.1.5 Mining and energy ....................................................................................... 141 3.1.6 Housing ....................................................................................................... 141 3.1.7 Health .......................................................................................................... 141 3.1.8 Education ..................................................................................................... 142 3.1.9 Culture ......................................................................................................... 142 3.1.10 Transport ..................................................................................................... 142 3.1.11 Communications .......................................................................................... 143 3.1.12 Water and sanitation .................................................................................... 143 3.1.13 Environment ................................................................................................ 143 Page 2 of 160 Serbia Floods 2014 3.1.14 Governance ................................................................................................. 144 4. SUMMARY OF RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS .......................... 144 4.1 Total value of recovery and reconstruction requirements .................................... 144 4.2 Time distribution of recovery and reconstruction requirements............................ 145 5. GUIDING PRINCIPLES FOR SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION ........................................................................................................ 146 5.1 Context ............................................................................................................... 146 5.1.1 Disaster Risk................................................................................................ 146 5.1.2 Drivers of Disaster Risk ............................................................................... 147 5.2 Institutional, policy, and regulatory environment for DRM.................................... 147 5.2.1 Roles and Responsibilities ..........................................................................
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