Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Latin American and Caribbean Cities
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Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Latin American and Caribbean Cities FINAL REPORT: ESTELÍ, NICARAGUA This page is intentionally blank Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Estelí, Nicaragua Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Latin American and Caribbean Cities A report submitted by ICF GHK in association with King's College London and Grupo Laera Job Number: J40252837 Cover photo: Estelí River, August 2012. ICF GHK 2nd Floor, Clerkenwell House 67 Clerkenwell Road London EC1R 5BL T +44 (0)20 7611 1100 F +44 (0)20 3368 6960 www.ghkint.com i Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Estelí, Nicaragua Document Control Document Title Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Latin American and Caribbean Cities Complete Report Estelí, Nicaragua Job number J40252837 Prepared by Climate-related hazard assessment Dr Rawlings Miller, Dr Carmen Lacambra, Ricardo Saavedra, Clara Ariza, Christopher Evans Urban, social and economic adaptive capacity assessment Dr Robin Bloch, Nikolaos Papachristodoulou, Jose Monroy Institutional adaptive capacity assessment Dr Zehra Zaidi, Prof Mark Pelling Climate-related vulnerability assessment Dr Rawlings Miller, Dr Robin Bloch, Nikolaos Papachristodoulou, Dr Zehra Zaidi, Thuy Phung, Chris Evans Strategic climate adaptation institutional strengthening and investment plan Dr Robin Bloch, Nikolaos Papachristodoulou, Jose Monroy Checked by Dr Robin Bloch, Nikolaos Papachristodoulou ICF GHK is the brand name of GHK Consulting Ltd and the other subsidiaries of GHK Holdings Ltd. In February 2012 GHK Holdings and its subsidiaries were acquired by ICF International. ii Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Estelí, Nicaragua Contents Executive summary .......................................................................................................... xii Understanding the problem of flooding and landslides .......................................................................... xii Strategic climate adaptation investment and institutional strengthening plan ....................................... xiv 1 Introduction .........................................................................................................1 1.1 About the project ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Outline of the report ................................................................................................................. 1 1.3 Context and study area ............................................................................................................ 4 2 Climate-related hazard assessment: floods and landslides ....................................6 2.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 6 2.3 Physical description ................................................................................................................. 6 2.4 Current flooding hazard.......................................................................................................... 13 2.5 Current landslide hazard ........................................................................................................ 22 2.6 Future flood and landslide hazards ........................................................................................ 27 3 Urban, social and economic adaptive capacity assessment .................................. 38 3.1 Urban, social and economic context ...................................................................................... 38 3.2 Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 40 3.3 Economic characteristics ....................................................................................................... 40 3.4 Urban development, spatial expansion and demographic change ........................................ 41 3.5 Distribution and quality of critical infrastructure ..................................................................... 52 3.6 Spatial, social and economic impact upon hazards ............................................................... 53 4 Institutional adaptive capacity assessment ......................................................... 56 4.1 Institutional context ................................................................................................................ 56 4.2 Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 56 4.3 Policy instruments .................................................................................................................. 58 4.4 Institutional mapping .............................................................................................................. 61 4.5 Gaps in existing capacity and opportunities for adaptation ................................................... 64 5 Climate-related vulnerability and risk assessment ............................................... 68 5.1 City profile .............................................................................................................................. 68 5.2 Institutional vulnerability in Estelí ........................................................................................... 71 5.3 Flooding and landslide vulnerability in Estelí ......................................................................... 73 6 Strategic climate adaptation investment and institutional strengthening plan ..... 82 6.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 82 6.2 Approach and tools for adaptation planning .......................................................................... 82 6.3 Strategy and adaptation measures ........................................................................................ 84 6.4 Action plan ............................................................................................................................. 92 6.5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 96 7 References ......................................................................................................... 97 Annex 1 Methodology of hazard assessment ....................................................... 101 Annex 2 Floods database ..................................................................................... 109 Annex 3 Climate change projections .................................................................... 110 iii Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Estelí, Nicaragua Table of tables Table 2.1 Monthly average temperature and total precipitation for Estelí station from 1970 to 1988. Source: adapted from Corrales, 2005. .............................................................................. 11 Table 2.2 Monthly distribution of climatic events related with floods or storms from 1992 to 2011; Source: based on data from DesInventar Database (Version 9.5.12-201) ...................... 16 Table 2.3 Projected temperature and precipitation for the wet season in the Estelí region for the 2050s relative to a 1961 to 1990 baseline. Projected data is shown for the minimum and maximum results from climate models (“min”, “max”), the upper and lower values of one ensemble mean. Source: based on data collected from Givertz, 2009. ........................... 30 Table 2.4 Projected temperature and precipitation for the dry season in the Estelí region for the 2050s relative to1961 to 1990 conditions. Projected data is shown for the minimum and maximum results from climate models, the upper and lower values of one standard Source: based on data collected from Givertz, 2009. ....................................................... 31 Table 2.5 Summary of the projected change in seasonal temperature and precipitation for the 2050s (Source: based on data collected from Givertz, 2009). ......................................... 32 Table 2.6 Qualitative summary of change in areas currently prone to flood and landslide hazards in Estelí by mid-Century. ....................................................................................................... 33 Table 2.7 A ranking system to distinguish areas on the map projected to experience change or no change in landslide and flood hazards. ............................................................................ 34 Table 3.1 Districts and neighbourhoods in Estelí ............................................................................. 38 Table 3.2 Urban demographic growth ............................................................................................... 42 Table 3.3 Projected population growth in urban Estelí ..................................................................... 44 Table 3.4 District I: neighbourhoods exposed to flooding ................................................................. 45 Table 3.5 District II: neighbourhoods exposed to flooding ................................................................ 46 Table 3.6 District III: neighbourhoods exposed to flooding ............................................................... 46 Table 3.7 Exposed neighbourhoods