Peace Confidence Index 14

An Opinion Poll On Peace

Peace Confidence Index (PCI) TOP-LINE RESULTS Social Indicator

July 2003

© 2003 Social Indicator ● Centre for Policy Alternatives hile many studies have been conducted on various aspects of W this conflict, none have attempted to capture the changes in public perception over a period of time. The lack of such a study was identified as a significant void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The study will be conducted bi- monthly to gauge the impact of local and international political developments on public attitudes towards the peace process.

This report was prepared with funds provided by:

The Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) under the Governance and Institutional Strengthening Project, (GISP) Sri Lanka.

The U.S. Agency for International Development under the Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI), Sri Lanka.

Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results

CONTENTS

• INTRODUCTION 01 • KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 02 • FINDINGS AT A GLANCE 06 • PEACE CONFIDENCE INDEX (PCI) 10 TOP-LINE RESULTS

PERCEPTIONS OF WAR AND PEACE 10

SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT 14

CONFIDENCE 16

THE PEACE PROCESS 20

INTERNATIONAL THIRD PARTY FACILITATION 21

NORWEGIAN FACILITATION 22

INDIA’S INVOLVEMENT 24

• RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 25

SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION 25

FEDERAL SOLUTION 30

THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY 31

FOREIGN AID 34

RECENT KILLINGS 36

INTERIM ADMINISTRATION 42

• ANNEX

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INTRODUCTION

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of public confidence in the peace process using a set of standardised questions which remain unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of questions related to recent social, economic and political developments in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process, which by definition will change from one wave to another.

Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective opinions of the public are given due importance and incorporated into the policy debate.

SCOPE & METHODOLOGY

The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face interviews amongst a 1,392 respondent sample. The 17 administrative districts of the seven provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government control of the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar were surveyed. Data is weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the districts in which the sample was surveyed.

Thirteen waves of the PCI study were conducted in May, June, September and November 2001 and January, March, May, July, September, November 2002 and January, March and May 2003. The latest wave was conducted in July 2003. This publication presents only the top-line results of the July 2003 survey.

The results of these fourteen waves offer us data for a comparative study on changing public opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war and peace to the proscription of the LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error.

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KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS JUNE 2003-JULY 2003

• Sri Lanka's prime minister launched a major effort to revive peace talks with LTTE on June 9, saying he was willing to alter the constitution to meet their demand for a regional interim administration. Speaking at the start of an aid conference in Tokyo, Ranil Wickremesinghe said that once a political solution to end the 20-year conflict had been reached, his government would call a referendum to endorse changes to Sri Lanka's constitution. (9 June 2003)-(Reuters/http://in.news.yahoo.com/030609/137/24zgw.html) • The JVP issues a statement denying media reports that it was involved in the incident at a temple in Tokyo where Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe had to face a hostile crowd. (9 June 2003)- (www.lankapage.com) • Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister Vidar Helgesen believes a peace agreement is within reach, possibly within a month. His delegation is currently in Japan to participate in the Sri Lanka donor conference following a few days of talks in Colombo. (10 June 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • A suspected LTTE rebel was hospitalized after taking cyanide when police arrested him and a companion in Wellawatta on June 10. Police Deputy Inspector General Bodhi Liyanage said a pistol was seized from the suspects. (10 June 2003)-(AP / www.theacademic.org) • Donor countries and agencies participating in the Tokyo Conference on Reconstruction and Development of Sri Lanka, concluded here today, pledged financial assistance amounting to US dollars 4.5 billion and assured the profound support of the international community for establishing lasting peace in Sri Lanka. (10 June 2003)-(Daily News on June 11) • The US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Armitage on June 10 in his opening remarks at the Tokyo donor conference refused to remove the ban on the LTTE in the near future. He urged them to return to the negotiation table immediately to prove their sincerity. (11 June 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • The LTTE today reiterated that it would resume peace negotiations only after the Government puts forward the draft framework of the interim administrative framework for the North-East and rejected the Prime Minister's offer for a provincial administrative structure. "We are disappointed to note that the Prime Minister's statement does not offer anything new. The so-called provincial administrative structure' is the new name given to the Apex Council proposed by him for development and rejected by us as extremely limited and inadequate," the LTTE said in a statement issued by its political headquarters in Killinochchi. (11 June 2003)-(Daily News) • The LTTE today dismissed both the resolution and declaration of the Tokyo donor conference as "unacceptable" and reiterated its stance in sticking to its former proposal for the setting up of an interim administration as a pre-condition to resume talks with the government. The LTTE noted that the declaration formulated at the donor conference had no binding effect on it as it is not a party to the deliberations and hence deemed it totally "unacceptable." (11 June 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The LTTE is demanding the release of one of their cadres in remand custody, to release the two Police constables who were abducted by the LTTE on June 10 evening in Batticoloa, Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission Spokeswoman Agnes Bragadottir said today. The LTTE today confirmed to the SLMM and the Army Brigade Headquarters in Batticoloa that the two Police constables are in their custody. (11 June 2003)-(The Island) • PA media spokesperson Dr. Sarath Amunugama says Sri Lanka received not aid but loans at the Tokyo donor conference and adds that this would further increase the debt burdens on the people of this country. (11 June 2003)-(http://www.colombopage.com/#June1115140UN) • The LTTE again clearly says that they are not ready for any talks with the Sri Lanka government until a firm decision is made on an interim administration for the North and East. Issuing a statement from Killinochchi this evening, the LTTE said they do not want to negotiate with any international organisation on this matter. The LTTE has also rejected the offer, made by the Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe at the Japan aid conference, of a 'provisional administrative structure' within the laws of the land. They said it was a restatement of his previous position with new terminology. (11 June 2003)- (http://www.colombopage.com/archive/June11113155RA.html) • The LTTE today says they are ready to release two police constables if the government releases two LTTE cadres taken into custody recently. Two LTTE pistol gang members were arrested in Colombo two days ago. Military Spokesperson Brig. Sanath Karunaratne says one member is the secretary to LTTE Eastern Commander Karuna. (12 June 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • The Sihala Urumaya, today repeated the charge that only 2% of the funds pledged this week in Tokyo were aid and that the rest was loans. (12 June 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • A top anti-LTTE leader, T. Subathiran (45), was assassinated in the heart of northern Jaffna town early this morning by an “unidentified sniper”, allegedly an LTTE sharpshooter. (14 June 2003)- (http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/2003/06/15/stories/2003061505110100.htm) Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003

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• The World Bank announced today that it approved a US$125 million Poverty Reduction Support Credit for Sri Lanka which builds upon the country's poverty reduction strategy outlined in "Regaining Sri Lanka: Vision and Strategy for Accelerated Development". (18 June 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The JVP is demanding the top post in the proposed coalition with the SLFP, prompting the SLFP to create a new position with wide powers to accommodate President Chandrika Kumaratunga. (21 June 2003)-(Sunday Times) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga has ordered the security forces to be on the alert after the three armed forces commanders informed her that the LTTE was strengthening its war efforts under the cover of the ongoing peace process. (22 June 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga addressing the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) convention today said that she was impressed with the progress of the talks between the SLFP and the JVP. (22 June 2003)-(Daily News) • "I ordered the Sri Lanka Navy (SLN) to destroy the LTTE ship that carried weapons on June 14 to safeguard the country and its people," declared President Ms Chandrika Kumaratunga addressing the fourteenth national convention of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), the main constituent of the opposition People's Alliance (PA) Saturday evening at Nittambuwa in western province. (23 June 2003)- (www.lankapage.com / www.tamilnet.com) • Head of the Terrorists Investigation Division at Dehiwala Police, Inspector Sunil Thabrew was shot and killed by a suspected LTTE cadre this morning while the Police officer was inside his quarters at the Police station premises. Colombo South DIG K .P. Pathirana said the LTTE suspect after firing several shots at close range has fled the scene using a three-wheeler. (23 June 2003)-(Daily Mirror/Daily News/The Island/www.theacademic.org) • Shanmugasundaram Ragupathy alias Tilakan, an LTTE activist who was found guilty of all charges against him including launching an attack on the Elara navy camp in Karainagar, was today sentenced to death by High Court Judge of Colombo Sarath Ambepitiya. (25 June 2003)-(Daily News) • SLMM said today that there was no evidence to indicate that the navy had abducted 12 LTTE cadres when their ship sank in a clash with the Sri Lankan navy. Deputy head of the Norwegian-led monitoring team Hagrup Haukland said the missing LTTE crewmen ``could either be dead or could have escaped.'' (26 June 2003)-(AP /www.theacademic.org) • The government spokesman G.L. Peiris said today it will send a set of proposals to LTTE in two weeks in hopes of resuming peace talks that stalled in April 2003 when the LTTE pulled out of the Norwegian- brokered dialogue. (26 June 2003)-(AP /www.theacademic.org) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga warns that the LTTE are planning to revert to warfare and that the government would be ill-equipped to deal with an attack, her spokesman said today. (26 June 2003)-(AP /www.theacademic.org) • A high-level Japanese delegation today met LTTE's political wing head S P Thamilselvan to brief him about the outcome of the recently concluded Tokyo multilateral donor conference and urged the rebels to immediately resume peace talks with the Government. (30 June 2003)-(UNI/Hinduonnet/Daily Mirror) • Police, aided by army soldiers, raided several residential areas in Colombo over the weekend and detained 306 people during an anti-crime sweep, police sources said today. Among those detained were minority Tamils, sparking criticism of harassment. The arrest of Tamils sparked criticism from TamilNet Web site that reports on Tamil affairs. (30 June 2003)-(AP/www.theacademic.org) • The Sri Lankan economy has reported a turnaround for 2003, recording a 5.5 percent growth in the first quarter of 2003 over the 0.5 percent growth for the corresponding period a year ago. (30 June 2003)- (Daily News) • The SLMM yesterday ordered the LTTE to immediately evacuate a camp it had set up in the government-controlled area in Kinniya in violation of the ceasefire agreement. (30 June 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The high court sentenced five people to death, including two police officers, for their role in a massacre in October 2000 at the Bindunuwewa detention camp that housed suspected LTTE members and former child soldiers. (1 July 2003)- (Reuters/http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030702/wl_nm/crime_srilanka_dc_3) • The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) was pressing the LTTE today to remove the camp in Tharanikulam in Kinniya in accordance with their ruling, as the LTTE have not evacuated the camp from the location, SLMM Deputy Chief Hagrup Haukland said. (2 July 2003)-(Daily News) • Government authorities today tightened the security for Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission officials according to Police sources. (7 July 2003)-(http://www.colombopage.com/#July762814UN) • Following a visit by the head of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission Tryggve Tellefsen to Kinniya, the commanders of the three armed forces and the Inspector General of Police were rushed to Trincomalee

this morning to investigate the Kinniya crisis, where the Tigers are forcibly occupying a government- controlled area. (7 July 2003)-(http://www.colombopage.com/archive/July760444UN.html) Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003

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• Buddhist monks of the National Bhikkhu Front (NBF) took to the streets of the Colombo today to protesting against "the SLMM’s biased role in monitoring the peace process and demanded the immediate exit of the Nordic peace monitors from the country." "The SLMM (Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission) is an organisation biased towards the LTTE, " the General Secretary of the NBF, Kaluwelgala Chandraloka Thero said. (8 July 2003)-(The Island on July 9) • A train without passengers but with only police and army security returned to Valaichchenai from Batticoloa today, while the LTTE was being accused of disrupting train service to the region by removing rail sleepers from the track between Vantarumulai and Commandurai on July 7. (8 July 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • In a surprise move by the government Defence Minister Tilak Marapana today condemned the killing of intelligence operatives and said that there was a clear link between majority of the killings and the LTTE. (8 July 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • Former Norwegian Ambassador and Special Envoy Jon Westborg today met LTTE political chief Thamilselvan in Killinochchi in a bid of shuttle diplomacy between the Government and the LTTE to revive the currently stalled peace talks. (8 July 2003)-(Reuters/Daily News) • LTTE political leader S.P. Thamilselvan, at a meeting with the Sri Lanka Tamil Media Alliance in Killinochchi, says that his organisation is ready to face war if a change in the Sri Lankan government demands it. (12 July 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com/www.lankapage.com) • The Government is now holding discussions with Muslim representatives in preparing the new set of proposals for an Interim Administration aimed at breaking the current deadlock in the peace process, a top Government official says. (13 July 2003)-(Daily News) • The LTTE on three occasions refused to allow SLMM officials to enter a bunker constructed in government-controlled Welioya and not allowing inspection of the bunker was a violation of the ceasefire agreement according to Deputy head of the SLMM Hagrup Haukland. (13 July 2003)- (www.colombopage.com) • SLMM said LTTE were not complying fully with the terms of a peace agreement with the government and they would demand an explanation. (14 July 2003)–(www.msnbc.com/www.theacedmic.org) • The Canadian Government which has been taking serious note of the violence by the LTTE and the continued violation of human rights would impose a ban on the LTTE within the next six months if it fails to stop its activities, diplomatic sources said. (14 July 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The Head of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) Tryggve Tellefsen arrived in Killinochchi today on a three-day visit in Vanni to obtain the LTTE view over the set of proposals on sea incidents put forward by the SLMM to both Government and the LTTE. (14 July 2003)-(Daily News) • The "Sinhala Sanvidhanaya," a Sinhala nationalist movement today launched a signature campaign in Trincomalee to urge the de-merging of the North and East, sources said. (14 July 2003)– (www.tamilnet.com) • The Government today presented its new set of proposals outlining the proposed provisional administrative structure to the LTTE. The proposals were conveyed through Norwegian special envoy and former Norwegian Ambassador Jon Westborg. (17 July 2003)-(Daily News on July 18) • The UNF Government has offered the LTTE a Provincial Administrative Council with majority membership and full powers to make policy. Other nominees will be from the Government, the People's Alliance and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress. This is the major highlight of a "Discussion Document" forwarded to the LTTE this week. It was taken to the Wanni on July 17 by Norway's Special Envoy Jon Westborg. The Government says, it sets out a "framework for establishing a provincial administrative arrangement which will enable the LTTE to participate significantly in decision making and delivery related to administration, and rebuilding of the war damaged infrastructure and economy in the Northern and Eastern Provinces." (20 July 2003)-(Sunday Times) • A high profile consultative committee set up by the LTTE leadership had been tasked to conduct a detailed study of the Government's latest proposals for an Interim Administration for the North and East, an LTTE spokesman said. (20 July 2003)-(Daily News on July 21) • Defence Secretary Austin Fernando today came out strongly against the LTTE's response to the SLMM over the Wan Ela camp (at Kinniya) issue, stating that the LTTE reaction was tantamount to challenging the wisdom of the SLMM. (20 July 2003)-(Daily News on July 21) • The Batticoloa and Ampara districts came to a virtual standstill today after some Tamil groups apparently backed by the LTTE launched a protest campaign demanding the release of eight LTTE cadres who were arrested in Batticoloa last week. (22 July 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The Scandinavian truce monitors said today that they are in the process of increasing the number of naval monitors in a bid to prevent sea clashes between the Navy and the Sea Tigers. "We are strengthening sea monitoring and increasing the number of sea monitors in Jaffna and Trincomalee," Sri

Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) deputy chief Hagruph Haukland said. (22 July 2003)-(Daily News)

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• Less than three days after Rehabilitation Minister Dr. Jayalath Jayawardena was almost manhandled by pro-LTTE students in Jaffna and forced to abandon a public ceremony, a second Cabinet Minister, Lands Minister, Dr. Rajitha Senaratne was today forced to cancel attending a four-day mobile service in Trincomalee due to a hartal called by the Tamil Organizations Federation. (26 July 2003)-(Sunday Times) • Army Commander Lt. General Lionel Balagalle today said there will not be any reduction of troops strength and that his troops were in the process of building a new base at Potpathi in Vadamaratchchi (east) as part of the ongoing process to re-locate troops based outside Jaffna High Security Zones (HSZs). (27 July 2003)-(The Island) • For the first time since signing the February 2002 cease-fire agreement Scandinavian monitors have said the LTTE's refusal to vacate the Wan Ela camp in Kinniya, Trincomalee could possibly damage the truce according to reports. SLMM's deputy chief, Hagrup Haukland in an interview with BBC's Tamil service warned that if the deadlock continued, then the army might be left with no option than removing the camp by using force - which the peace monitors are not in favour of. (28 July 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The LTTE said today that it would come out with amendments to the Government's Interim Administrative proposals adding that it would resume peace talks if the Government accepts them. LTTE political chief Thamilselvan was quoted as saying the LTTE leadership was now studying the Government's proposals and consulting constitutional and legal experts. (28 July 2003)-(Daily News) • Unidentified attackers threw a grenade into an office of the LTTE in the government-held Vavuniya wounding one person, a news report and police said today. The incident occurred just before midnight on July 28. (28 July 2003)-(AP/www.tamilnet.com/www.theacademic.org)

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FINDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM 31ST JULY TO 13TH AUGUST 2003

♦ In July 2003, 43.7% express that peace means Ethnic Harmony, which is a decline from 51.9% in May 2003. When comparing the past 14 waves of this opinion, it can be seen that this is the lowest response percentage. (Ref. Page 10)

♦ The opinion that war means Disharmony amongst races has declined from 35.3% in May 2003 to 27.6% in July 2003. However, there is an increase in the opinion that war means Death/destruction from 56.7% in May 2003 to 61.7% in July 2003. (Ref. Page 11)

♦ The uncertainty as to when there will be peace in Sri Lanka continues to exist in the minds of Sri Lankans (60.4% in May 2003, 60.4% in July 2003). There is a decrease in the opinion that peace will come soon to Sri Lanka from 19.3% in May 2003 to 15.3% in July 2003 and this decrease in opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala community (15% in May 2003 to 9.1% in July 2003). 62.1% of the Tamil community, however, believe that peace will come soon to Sri Lanka, which is an increase from 41.9% in May 2003. (Ref. Page 12)

♦ The belief that the origin/cause of the war in Sri Lanka is Communal Politics has decreased from 41.5% in May 2003 to 37.7% in July 2003. 42.8% of the Tamil community believe that Communal Politics is the origin/cause of the war, which is an increase from May 2003 (28.9%). Further 45.1% of the Tamil community believe that Discrimination against Tamils is the origin/cause of the war in Sri Lanka. This is a decrease from 64% in May 2003. Within the Muslim community, 43.7% believe Communal Politics as the origin/cause of the war, while 48.2% believe it is Discrimination against Tamils. There is a decline in both these opinions from May 2003 (Communal Politics – 54.2%, Discrimination against Tamils – 58.3%). (Ref. Page 13)

♦ A majority (81.9%) continues to believe that Peace Talks is the way to end the war and have peace in Sri Lanka, which is a decline from May 2003 (87.4%). This decline stems mainly from the Sinhala community (85.4% in May 2003 to 78.9% in July 2003). (Ref. Page 14)

♦ Sri Lankans believe that the lack of political will (42.8%) and Corrupt Military and Political Leaders (34.2%) are the top two reasons why there hasn’t been a solution to the war for the last 15 years. From an ethnic perspective, a majority of the Tamil (59.3%) and Muslim (41.9%) communities believe that the lack of political will is the reason there hasn’t been a solution. This is an increase from May 2003 (Tamil – 39.8%, Muslim – 26%). 41.2% of the Tamil community and 21.6% of the Muslim community also believe that Corrupt Military and Political Leaders is the reason there hasn’t been a solution, which is a decline from May 2003 (Tamil – 51.9%, Muslim – 43.4%). (Ref. Page 15)

♦ In July 2003, 48% believe that the Government is committed to find peace through talks, which is a lower response percentage than that following the December 2001elections (January 2002 – 58%). 43.6% of the Sinhala community believe that the Government is committed to find peace through talks, a decline from 50.6% in May 2003. (Ref. Page 16)

♦ 47.2% of Sri Lankans believe that the LTTE is not committed to find peace through talks, which is a higher response percentage than that in the period before the signing of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) (January 2002 – 42.7%). In May 2003, 53.6% of the Muslim community believed that the LTTE was committed to find peace through talks, however

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in July 2003, 28.2% of the Muslim community believe that the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks. In July 2003, 35.2% of the Muslim community believe that the LTTE is not committed to find peace through talks, an increase from 13.1% in May 2003. In contrast, 79.5% of the Tamil community believe that the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks, which is an increase from 77.4% in May 2003. (Ref. Page 17)

♦ 40.2% of Sri Lankans believe that the Government goes in for talks due to its Commitment to peace. The belief that the Government goes in for talks due to the Realisation that this war cannot be won has decreased from 29% in May 2003 to 20.7% in July 2003. 18.2% believe that the Government goes in for talks to fool the people and this opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala community (20.7%). (Ref. Page 18)

♦ 37.3% believe that the LTTE goes in for talks to fool the people, a higher response percentage when compared with May 2003 (29.1%) as well as with the period before the signing of the CFA (January 2002 – 27.9%). This opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala community (43.9%). (Ref. Page 19)

♦ There is a marked decline in the belief that only the Government and the LTTE should be involved in negotiations (26.7% in May 2003 to 12.5% in July 2003). Moreover, 25.1% advocate the widest range of involvement in negotiations. Compared to the other communities, 60% of the Muslim community believe in the widest range of involvement, which includes a separate Muslim delegation. Within the Tamil community, there is an increase in the opinion that only the Government and the LTTE should be involved in negotiations, from 16.4% in May 2003 to 22.2% in July 2003. There is also a significant increase in the Tamil community’s opinion for the widest range of involvement in negotiations (7.3% in May 2003 to 20.5% in July 2003). (Ref. Page 20)

♦ 59.1% of Sri Lankans believe that an international third party’s involvement will have a positive impact or will be essential for the peace process. In contrast, 19.5% believe that an international third party’s involvement is not essential, an increase from 14.5% in May 2003. Within the Muslim community there is a significant decline in the belief that an international third party’s involvement is essential from 74.3% in May 2003 to 58.4% in July 2003. (Ref. Page 21)

♦ Overall, people’s approval of Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan Peace Process has decreased from 43.3% in May 2003 to 34.6% in July 2003. The Sinhala (34.2%) and Muslim (12.2%) communities’ disapproval of Norway assisting in the peace process has increased when compared with May 2003 (Sinhala – 26.9%, Muslim – 7.3%). The Tamil community’s approval of this has decreased from 96.5% in May 2003 to 85.9% in July 2003. (Ref. Page 22)

♦ Sri Lankans seem to have a divided opinion with regard to Norway continuing to facilitate talks (Approve – 32.2%, Disapprove – 32%). The Sinhala (24.2%), Tamil (85.7%) and Muslim (53.5%) communities’ approval of Norway continuing to facilitate talks has declined since May 2003 (Sinhala – 35.2%, Tamil – 96.2%, Muslim – 61.6%). (Ref. Page 23)

♦ 30.4% of Sri Lankans believe that India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process will have a positive impact on the peace process, a decline from 39.6% in May 2003. There is an increase in the belief that India’s involvement is essential, from 22.3% in May 2003 to 27.5% in July 2003. The Sinhala (20.1%), Tamil (54.6%) and Muslim (65.4%) communities’

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belief that India’s involvement is essential, has increased when compared with May 2003 (Sinhala – 14.7%, Tamil – 50%, Muslim - 50.8%). (Ref. Page 24)

♦ Of those aware of the involvement of foreign monitors in monitoring the Ceasefire, 27.2% believe such a monitoring mission will have a positive impact on the success of the CFA, which is a significant decline from 43.5% in May 2003. This decline stems mainly from the Sinhala (50.8% in May 2003 to 30.9% in July 2003) and Muslim (10.7% in May 2003 to 3.9% in July 2003) communities. Further, 15.8% believe that such a monitoring mission is not essential, an increase from 7.2% in May 2003. (Ref. Page 25)

♦ 26.9% of Sri Lankans express their agreement when asked about SLMM’s impartiality. This is a decline from 32.1% in May 2003. (Ref. Page 26)

♦ There is a decline in the opinion that the SLMM is effective in its monitoring of the CFA from 29.4% in May 2003 to 25.6% in July 2003. (Ref. Page 27)

♦ Of those aware that the LTTE refused to pullout of the training camp in Kinniya, a Government controlled area, despite the SLMM’s ruling, 85% believe that it will have a negative impact on the peace process. Compared to the other communities, the Tamil community seems to have a divided opinion with regard to the impact of this (Will have no impact – 39.7%, Will have a negative impact – 34.6%). (Ref. Page 29)

♦ Of those aware that the Government and the LTTE have announced that they are committed to finding a solution based on federalism within a united Sri Lanka, 44.2% disapprove of this agreement, while 32.4% approve of it. There seems to be a divided opinion within the Muslim community, where 40.9% disapprove of the agreement while 39.1% approve of it. (Ref. Page 30)

♦ While 34.5% don’t know or are unsure as to whether the interests and concerns of the Muslims of the East are being adequately represented in the peace talks, 30.1% do not believe that they are, which is an increase from 26.5% in May 2003. There is an increase in the Muslim community’s opinion that the interests and concerns of the Eastern Muslims are not adequately represented in the peace talks from 66.2% in May 2003 to 77.8% in July 2003. (Ref. Page 31)

♦ The Muslim community (69.3%) believes that the current inadequate representation of the interests and concerns of the Eastern Muslims in the peace talks will have a negative impact on the peace process, which is an increase from 58.9% in May 2003. (Ref. Page 32)

♦ 38.1% believe that there should be a separate Muslim delegation to the peace talks. A majority (91.2%) of the Muslim community believes that there should be a separate Muslim delegation to the peace talks, which is an increase from 83.7% in May 2003. (Ref. Page 33)

♦ Of those aware that international donors pledged $4.5 billion for a period of 4 years, to rebuild Sri Lanka, at the aid conference in Tokyo in June, 57% believe that it will have a positive impact on the peace process, while 21.4% don’t know or are unsure. 15.8% believe that it will have no impact on the peace process. (Ref. Page 35)

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♦ 55.9% of those aware of the recent killings of people who are informants of, or were attached to Sri Lankan intelligence, believe that the LTTE is responsible for these killings, while 22.9% don’t know or are unsure. Within the Tamil community, 78% are unable to state whom they believe is responsible for these killings. (Ref. Page 37)

♦ A majority (84.2%) believes that the recent killings of people who are informants of, or were attached to Sri Lankan intelligence, will have a negative impact on the peace process. Compared to the other communities, 57.3% of the Tamil community believe that this will have no impact on the peace process. (Ref. Page 38)

♦ Of those aware of the recent killings of those attached to Tamil political parties who are opposed to the LTTE, 71.1% believe that the LTTE is responsible for these killings while 19.3% don’t know or are unsure. Within the Tamil community, 77% are unable to state whom they believe is responsible for these killings. (Ref. Page 40)

♦ 76.5% believe that the recent killings of those attached to Tamil political parties who are opposed to the LTTE, will have a negative impact on the peace process. Compared to the other communities 58.4% of the Tamil community believe that this will have no impact on the peace process. (Ref. Page 41)

♦ Of those aware of the Government’s proposal of the 17th of July, to the LTTE, to set up a Provincial Administrative Structure for the Northern and Eastern Province, 43.7% disapprove of such a proposal while 32.6% approve and 23.7% are unsure of such a proposal. 50.3% of the Sinhala community and 57.3% of the Muslim community disapprove of such a proposal, while 84.5% of the Tamil community approve of such a proposal. (Ref. Page 43)

♦ Cost of living (5 point rating mean - 3.76) seems to be the issue that most Sri Lankans are concerned about while unemployment (5 point rating mean - 2.67) and the Ethnic conflict (5 point rating mean - 2.09) follow close behind. (Ref. Page 44)

♦ 37.1% believe that the peace process has had no impact on their living conditions, while 34% believe that it has had a positive impact. 21% believe that the peace process has had a negative impact and 7.9% don’t know or are unsure. 39.9% of the Sinhala community believe that the peace process has had no impact on their living conditions. The Tamil community (43.6%) believe that the peace process has had a positive impact on their living conditions. The Muslim community however has a divided opinion, where 34% believe that the peace process has had a positive impact on their living conditions while 32.9% believe that the peace process has had a negative impact. (Ref. Page 45)

For further information please contact:

Reshma Harjani or Pradeep Peiris Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.

Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: [email protected] Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

Page 10 Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results

PEACE CONFIDENCE INDEX (PCI)

MAY 2001 – JULY 2003

THE PERCEPTION OF WAR AND PEACE

What does ‘peace’ mean to you? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

70 63 60 54 52.7 54.5 53.9 End of war 50.6 50.5 49.2 47.8 51.9 50 46.1 47.2 44.9 41.4 43.7 39 Ethnic 40 36.7 37.5 36.4 42.7 39.9 35.9 34.7 35.8 % 34.7 35 38.2 Harmony 35.7 35 31 32.4 30 34.7 34.1 24.7 32 31.2 29.3 29 27.6 Feeling Safe 25.9 21.6 25.4 20 16.7 17.7 18.3 15.3 15.3 16.2 16.2 14.9 15.5 14.9 10 10.4 11.2 12.6 Freedom 9.8 0 May '01 September January '02 May '02 September January '03 May '03 '01 '02

Ethnic Breakdown

7.4 22 Up-country Tamil 77.7 8.2

40.9 Freedom 53.3 Muslim 78.1 Feeling safe 20.5 Ethnic Harmony 44.1 End of war 55.4 Tamil 43 10.9

41.1 9 Sinhala 39.5 36.1

0 20406080100 %

What does ‘war’ mean to you? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

60.2 58.9 61.7 60 57.8 56.2 54.4 55.9 51.3 50.8 56.7 50 Means to achieving peace 42.8 43.1 39.6 40 35.3 Fighting for rights % 30.3 30.1 30 27.1 27.4 27.7 25.2 26.4 26.2 27.6 24.5 23.9 26 Disharmony amongst 22.9 22.9 23.6 26 races 20.321.5 21.2 25.7 18.2 22.3 20 21.5 17.1 16.2 16.2 22.4 15 16.7 15.6 Hindrance to economic 12.3 16.4 16.6 15.8 14.3 growth/ Rise in cost of 16.8 11.1 10 9.8 9.4 13.2 11.3 10 12.4 10.9 12.9 8.7 living 11.4 9.9 10.1 7.8 8.7 7.8 Death / Destruction 0.3 8.6 2.7 3.5 2.2 2.6 2.7 3.3 3.5 3.5 4.6 2 0 June '01 November March '02 July '02 November March '03 July '03 Terrorism '01 '02

Ethnic Breakdown

12.5 30.1 Up-country 14.6 Tamil 34.6 22.4 Terrorism 6.1 8.1 Death / Destruction 64.4 Muslim 45.5 54.7 26.8 Hindrance to economic growth/ 11.4 Rise in cost of living 5.7 86.6 Disharmony amongst races 48.3 Tamil 13.4 8.6 1.1 Fighting for rights 11.9 61.2 Means to achieving peace 23.4 Sinhala 26.2 13.4 1.9

0 102030405060708090100 %

When will there be peace in Sri Lanka?

National Trend

80 71.3 70 63.8 61.9 60.4 57.9 60 58.6 60.1 58.4 57.6 60 53.9 54.5 57.2 60.4 Soon 50

% Never 40

30 24.8 24.8 22.121.1 Don't 18.9 21 know 17.3 19.3 20 13.4 17.7 11 9.9 15.3 10.2 9 7.6 6.7 6.8 10 4.9 8.7 10.6 10.4 10 7.5 7.2 8.2 8.5 0 May '01 September January May '02 September January May '03 '01 '02 '02 '03

Ethnic Breakdown

30.7 1.4 1.9 Up-country Tamil 8.1 13.1 44.6 45 3.1 Don't know 1.4 Muslim 4.9 Never 12.8 32.7 Not in my life time 24.7 Within the next ten years 1.4 Within the next five years Tamil 3.4 3 Soon 4.8 62.1 65.8 10 1.4 Sinhala 6.3 5.9 9.1 0 10203040506070 %

In your opinion what was the origin/cause(s) of the war in Sri Lanka? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

45 41.6 41.5 41.5 40.3 39.3 Communal politics 40 37.8 35.1 36.3 37.7 33.8 34.5 35 33.4 36.2 Discrimination against 29.2 33.1 29.2 Tamils 30 28 26 25.6 24.7 24.4 Discrimination against % 25 22.5 Sinhalese 24.3 20.4 21.4 20 19.5 Sinhala chauvinism 17.9 14.8 14.2 15.2 15 13.2 12.4 11.7 12.3 12.6 11.7 11 12.1 14.3 12.1 9.2 9.9 9 8.7 11.2 Tamil chauvinism 10 7.8 8.7 8.2 12 9.1 8.3 10.4 10.6 9 4.9 9.8 8.4 7.1 6.6 8.1 6.9 8 5 6.8 7 2.9 2 3.2 Terrorism 1.4 3.6 4 4.2 4 3.9 2.6 2.9 3.6 3.3 2.3 0 June '01 November March '02 July '02 November March '03 July '03 '01 '02

Ethnic Breakdown

19.4 5.6 34 Up-country Tamil 2.7 44.8 Terrorism 15.1 9.5 12.4 Tamil chauvinism 43.3 Muslim 11.3 48.2 Sinhala chauvinism 43.7 0 0 Discrimination against 15.8 Sinhalese Tamil 0.6 45.1 42.8 Discrimination against Tamils 12.8 13.2 9 Communal politics Sinhala 2.8 16.5 38 0 102030405060 %

SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT

How do you think we can end the war and have peace in Sri Lanka? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

100 87.2 86 86.7 90 85 84.4 83.7 80.7 83.7 87.4 80 81.9 71.3 71.9 68.6 Government 70 defeating the 59.1 LTTE 60 % 50 LTTE defeating the Government 40 30 24.4 18 20 19.9 Peace talks 20 9.9 10.1 7.6 7.2 10.4 7 7 11.1 10 1.3 0.8 5.5 6.5 1 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.8 1 1.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0 May '01 September January May '02 September January May '03 '01 '02 '02 '03

Ethnic Breakdown

98 Up-country Tamil 0 0 Peace talks 95.8 Muslim 1.7 0.4 LTTE defeating the Government 97.1 Tamil 0 0 Government defeating the LTTE 78.9 Sinhala 0.5 13.3

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 %

Why do you think there hasn’t been a solution to the war for the last 15 odd years? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

50 46.2 44.2 44 44.2 44 45 41.8 Corrupt military 39.1 39.4 40.5 42.8 and political 40 37.3 36.7 37.1 41.4 leaders 34.1 38.5 35 33.4 34.2 34.8 35 33.1 34.8 No political will 32.7 30 30.9 31.8 30.1 30.3 30.6 30.2 % 25 25.8 24.5 19.5 19.1 LTTE does not 20 22.2 21.2 20.7 want peace 15.7 18.5 18.6 18.2 15 13.1 14 11.3 10 War is necessary for people in 9.3 10.6 10.5 7.5 7.6 5 8.6 power 7.3 6.5 7 4.8 0 4.8 6.5 0 May '01 September January May '02 September January May '03 '01 '02 '02 '03

Ethnic Breakdown

26.8 14.7 0.9 Don't know Up-country Tamil 2.2 37 16 War is necessary for people in 32.9 27.9 power 15.9 Muslim 11.4 LTTE does not want peace 41.9 21.6 8.7 5.9 The strength of the LTTE 0 Tamil0 59.3 41.2 No political will 21.9 13.5 Corrupt military and political Sinhala 4.6 2.8 leaders 41.9 35.6

0 10203040506070

CONFIDENCE

I think the Government is committed to find peace through talks.

National Trend

80 69.8 70.2 70 63.7 61.8 58 59.4 60 56.7 53 53.9 50.2 50.1 50 43.8 44 48 Agree 40 % Disagree 31.4 30 23.8 22.5 24.5 22.5 21.6 20 15.1 12 20.9 11.9 19.1 9.8 9.1 18.6 10

0 May '01 September January '02 May '02 September January '03 May '03 '01 '02

Ethnic Breakdown

8.2 Up-country Tamil 17.2 71.7

14.9 Disagree Muslim 9.4 65.9

Neither agree nor 8.8 disagree Tamil 9.7 73.6 Agree 23.7 Sinhala 17.3 43.6 0 1020304050607080 %

I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks.

National Trend

68.5 70 63.5

60 53.2 50.6 45.7 45.7 50 44.9 42.7 47.2 39.5 39.8 38.2 38.9 % 40 32.9 Agree Disagree 30 28.3 29.3 29 17.3 27.3 27.5 25.7 20 15.8 25.7 20.5 12.9 22.2 19.7 9.8 10

0 May '01 September January '02 May '02 September January '03 May '03 '01 '02

Ethnic Breakdown

4.6 Up-country Tamil 13.6 75.5

35.2 Muslim 18.9 Disagree 28.2 Neither agree nor 4.7 disagree Tamil 5.3 Agree 79.5

53.3 Sinhala 14.5 12.8

0 102030405060708090 %

Why do you think that the Government goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

50 48.8 Commitment to peace 45.3 44.6 42.1 39 41.7 39.5 38.3 Economic hardship 40 35.8 38.3 38 36.8 40.2 35.5 32.4 % 33.2 32.5 37.5 International pressure 28.9 29.9 28.6 29 30 33.4 27 27.2 24.1 24.1 23.8 29.6 24.5 28.9 22.4 Realisation that this war 19.9 19.8 24.1 cannot be won 18.6 24.6 20.7 20 18 17.2 18.2 19.7 17.6 20.1 To fool the people 12.4 14.1 12.9 13.1 16.2 12.2 10 15.5 10.3 14.5 9.7 11.2 10 11.9 8 10.3 Lack of manpower 10.6 10.9 11 9.5 8.4 8.8 7.1 7.1 7.4 6.6 4.6 4.5 5.2 4.2 3.5 4.3 3.2 3.9 3.7 0 June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 November '02 March '03 July '03

Ethnic Breakdown

3.3 3.1 Up-country 22.8 Tamil 21.3 33.2 46.7 Lack of manpower 14.9 12.7 To fool the people 37.5 Muslim 43.2 65.5 Realisation that this war cannot be 35.2 won 3 International pressure 0.3 33.7 Tamil 24 Economic hardship 31.1 47.9 Commitment to peace 4 20.7 18.3 Sinhala 7.3 17.9 39.6

0 20406080 %

Why do you think that the LTTE goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

50 44.9 45 Commitment to peace 40 34.6 37.3 35 Economic hardship 31.3 31.5 30.8 30.8 28.7 28.5 29.1 30 27.9 27.7 29.1 27.3 25.1 27.4 International pressure % 24.7 25.6 25 24.3 25 24.5 22.4 23.4 23.9 22.5 20.5 22.1 18.7 20.4 18.5 23.2 20 18.3 19.1 19 20 21.9 Realisation that this war 16.9 18.2 20 16.7 15.4 16.1 16.7 19.2 cannot be won 15.2 14.9 15.9 13.9 18.6 18.114.6 16.1 15.7 15 13.9 16.5 14.6 12.9 14.9 15.5 12.3 14.6 13.2 14.5 11 To fool the people 13.8 12.8 14.4 13.1 12.8 10 8.9 12.5 12.4 12.6 11.9 10.3 10.4 8.5 5 6.6 Lack of manpower

0 June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 November '02 March '03 July '03

Ethnic Breakdown

3.6 4.6 18.4 Up-country Tamil 18.3 27.9 53.3 Lack of manpower 42.6 7.9 To fool the people 47.8 Muslim 39.6 58.9 Realisation that this war cannot be 24 won 1.7 International pressure 0 9.7 Tamil 36 Economic hardship 15.2 56.8 Commitment to peace 9.7 43.9 21 Sinhala 19.9 16.1 3.8

0 10203040506070 %

THE PEACE PROCESS

Who should be involved in negotiations?

National Trend

40 36.7 Govt. and LTTE only 35 32.1 33.9 30 31.3 25.8 27 25.1 26.7 Govt.,LTTE and 25 21.9 25.1 International third 23 21.7 21.6 19.9 20.3 party only 23.3 % 20 19 18.3 16.2 15.9 16.4 19.1 15.1 18.6 15 14.2 17.2 12.4 12.1 16.6 16.4 Govt., Opposition, 15.5 15.5 11 13.5 14 12.5 LTTE,Tamil, Muslim 12.9 9.8 9.5 10 parties and a third 6.6 9.5 party 4.8 6.8 5 4.3 4 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.5 0.9 No peace talks 1.4 1 1.9 0 May '01 September January '02 May '02 September January '03 May '03 '01 '02

Ethnic Breakdown

17.8 0 37.4 11.9 Up-country Tamil 2.2 Don't know 2.6 18.9 5.4 No peace talks 8.2 0.1 60 Muslim 22.2 Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, 3.2 Muslim parties and a third party 0.6 0 3.6 Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil 8.3 and Muslim parties only 0 20.5 Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil 3.6 Tamil 19.9 parties and a third party 3.2 17.2 22.2 Govt., Opposition, LTTE and other Tamil parties only 10.7 2.2 22.2 Govt.,LTTE and International third 11.2 party only Sinhala 9.6 5 5.9 Govt. and LTTE only 12.9

0 10203040506070 %

INTERNATIONAL THIRD PARTY FACILITATION

What is your opinion of the need for an international third party’s involvement to solve the North East war in Sri Lanka?

National Trend

40 38 35.8 35 32.6 31.9 32.5 32.5 30.9 32.1 30.2 30.6 29.8 Is essential 30 28.9 31.7 30.5 28.6 29 29 29 29.3 Will add a positive 24.2 28.8 25 impact 26.1 21.8 20.9 Will have no impact % 20 16.7 17.9 19.5 16.8 16.5 16.2 14.2 14.5 16 13.2 Will add a negative 15 14.2 13.1 impact 11.3 10.5 10.2 10 9.6 10.3 9.6 9.5 10 Is not essential 10 11.3 11.6 9.9 9.9 10.2 9.2 5.7 5.4 4.3 3.7 Don't know/Not 5 3.2 2.1 5.4 4.6 3.7 sure 1.4 1.4 1.6 0.9 1 0.7 1.4 0.9 0 September '01 January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03 May '03

Ethnic Breakdown

8.4 5.7 Up-country Tamil0 2.4 19.3 64.1 14.6 4.1 Muslim 8.6 Don't know/Not sure 4.4 8.4 Is not essential 58.4 Will add a negative impact 3.9 Will have no impact 7.1 Will add a positive impact Tamil0 4.2 Is essential 3.3 81.5 10.1 22.2 Sinhala 3.8 0.3 32.5 22.9

0 20406080100 %

NORWEGIAN FACILITATION

Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process

National Trend

60 53.8 50.7 50 46.3 42.4 Approve 42.7 42.3 43.3 38 40 37 Neither approve 34.6 nor disapprove 28.2 29.8 % 30 29.5 24.5 Disapprove 22.4 23 22.7 20.5 23.1 19.4 20 21.8 20.5 18 22.8 22.1 21 21.1 18 18.7 Don't know/Not 17.9 14.6 15.5 sure 10 13.6 12.8 11.8 10.2 11.1 9.1 7.8 8.8 0 January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03 May '03

Ethnic Breakdown

3.4 4 Up-country Tamil 9.1 82.7

10.9 12.2 Muslim Don't know/Not sure 7.7 67.8 Disapprove 5.3 1.6 Tamil 7.3 Neither approve nor 85.9 disapprove

23.2 Approve 34.2 Sinhala 16 25.9

0 20406080100%

Norway continuing to facilitate talks.

National Trend

50 44.1 45 42.6 38.7 40 38.2 41.3 Approve 35 32.2 29.4 32 30 26.9 Neither approve % nor disapprove 25 22.6 23.3 22.2 19.7 20.9 21.3 Disapprove 20 21.8 21.8 21.8 15 11.9 13.2 13.8 Don't know/Not 10 13.6 12.4 sure 10.7 5 0 September '02 November '02 January '03 March '03 May '03 July '03

Ethnic Breakdown

4.1 6.4 Up-country Tamil 10 79.6

13.6 16.3 Don't know/Not sure Muslim 15.2 53.5 Disapprove 5 2.2 Tamil Neither approve nor 7.1 disapprove 85.7 Approve 23.9 36.7 Sinhala 14.4 24.2

0 102030405060708090 %

INDIA’S INVOLVEMENT

What is your opinion of the need for India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process?

National Trend

40 39.6 35.9 35.5 33.8 Is essential 35 31.7 32.7 30 27 30.4 Will add a positive 27.5 impact 25 % 26.1 26.6 20.8 Will have no 22.3 19.2 impact 20 18.6 16.2 16.4 17.4 15.6 Will add a 14.9 16.8 15.8 15.9 15 13.6 negative impact 16.2 14.3 12.9 13.5 13 12.4 Is not essential 10 13.1 12.5 7.1 5.9 9.2 5.6 5.3 8.4 3.5 6.1 Don't know/Not 5 2.7 1.9 1.3 sure 1.2 3 1.6 1.6 0 1.7 May '02 September '02 January '03 May '03

Ethnic Breakdown

7 3.8 4.2 Up-country Tamil 2.1 5.9 77.1 Don't know/Not sure 5.2 8.5 4.6 Muslim 3.6 Is not essential 11 65.4 Will add a negative 12.5 8.6 impact Tamil 9.5 10.8 Will have no impact 4 54.6 13.8 Will add a positive 17.6 6 impact Sinhala 0.7 35 Is essential 20.1 0 102030405060708090 %

RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION

If you are aware of the involvement of foreign monitors in monitoring the ceasefire, what is your opinion of the need for such a monitoring mission for the ceasefire agreement to succeed?

National Trend

50 Is essential 45 43 41.5 43.5 39.4 39.3 40.5 37.9 37.5 40 Will have a positive 33.6 impact 35 31.2 29.7 30 29 Will have no impact 26.7 26.3 26.7 25.3 27.2 % 25 24.8 Will have a negative 20 impact 15 15.8 10.3 Is not essential 9.6 10 8.4 6.7 5.6 6.9 7.2 7.3 4.6 5.6 8.5 5.8 4.5 7.5 5.2 5.3 5 5.2 2.8 5.4 4.2 1.9 4.1 3.8 4.2 4.1 3.7 Will be a threat to the 1.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.6 0 1.4 1.7 1.7 sovereignty of Sri Lanka March '02 July '02 November '02 March '03 July '03

Ethnic Breakdown

0 3.3 Up-country 0 Tamil 0.4 30.4 59 1.5 Will be a threat to the sovereignty 2.7 10.3 of Sri Lanka Muslim 7.4 Is not essential 3.9 66.7 0 Will have a negative impact 2.4 0 Tamil 2.7 Will have no impact 0.6 89.7 Will have a positive impact 0.6 18.1 9.3 Is essential Sinhala 5.6 30.9 15.6

0 20406080100 %

I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.

National Trend

40 35.5 35 33.2 32.8 32.1 31.7 Agree 29 30.3 33.1 31.3 30 27.4 26.8 27 30.1 28.9 27.6 26.9 Neither agree 25 nor disagree 22.5 23.6 21.4 21.3 22.8 19.6 21.9 % 20 15.7 19.6 Disagree 19.2 18 18.9 15 18 17.8 17.4 14.6 Don't know/Not 10 sure

0 May '02 September '02 January '03 May '03

Ethnic Breakdown

20 9.8 Up-country Tamil 7.1 63.2

16.5 Don't know/Not sure 20.1 Muslim 21.2 42.2 Disagree

13.3 2.1 Tamil Neither agree nor disagree 16.2 68.4 Agree 23 35.1 Sinhala 20.1 21.4

0 1020304050607080 %

I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.

National Trend

35 31.4 33 30.5 30.6 29.4 28.7 Agree 30 28 26.1 26 26.6 29.4 24 25 24.3 25.6 25.7 Neither agree 21.3 24.8 23.8 22.8 21.1 22.4 nor disagree 20 22.4 % 21.4 20.3 19.7 18.6 19.3 19.1 Disagree 15

10 Don't know/Not sure 5

0 July '02 September November January '03 March '03 May '03 July '03 '02 '02

Ethnic Breakdown

12.9 13 Up-country Tamil 11.3 62.7 19.2 16.8 Muslim 32.9 Don't know/Not sure 31 Disagree 13 Neither agree nor disagree 1.5 Agree Tamil 19.5 66

23.7 37.3 Sinhala 17.8 20.8 0 10203040506070 %

Are you aware that the LTTE refuse to pullout of the training camp in Kinniya, a Government controlled area, despite the SLMM’s ruling?

National Breakdown

38.6 Yes No

61.4

Ethnic Breakdown

38.6 National 61.4

60.3 Up-country Tamil 39.7

40.7 No Muslim Yes 59.3

29.3 Tamil 70.7

38.3 Sinhala 61.3

0 1020304050607080%

If you are aware that the LTTE refuse to pullout of the training camp in Kinniya, what in your opinion will be the impact of this on the peace process?

National Breakdown

Will have a positive 85 impact

Will have no impact

Will have a negative impact 7.4 1.7 Don't know/Not sure 5.9

Ethnic Breakdown

7.4 85 National 5.9 1.7 8.2 Don't know/Not sure 83.6 Up-country Tamil 8.2 0 Will have a negative 5.9 impact 88.3 Muslim 0 Will have no impact 2.7

15.1 34.6 Will have a positive Tamil 39.7 impact 9.7

5.6 89.9 Sinhala 2.7 0.8

0 20406080100%

FEDERAL SOLUTION

If you are aware that the Government and the LTTE have announced that they are committed to finding a solution based on federalism within a united Sri Lanka, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of this agreement?

National Trend

45 41.7 44.2 Approve 40 36.1 34.1 35 33.3 32.4 30 30.6 Disapprove 24 25 % 23.1 20 Don’t 15 know/Not sure 10 5

0 March '03 May '03 July '03

Ethnic Breakdown

6.4 Up-country Tamil 3.3 90.3 18.2 Muslim 40.9 Don’t know/Not sure 39.1 4.1 Disapprove Tamil 1.7 94.1

26.5 Approve Sinhala 51.4 21.8

0 102030405060708090100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 31 Top-Line Results

THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY

Do you think that the interests and concerns of the Muslims of the East are being adequately represented in the peace talks?

National Trend

40 36.5 35.6 34.1 34.3 35 34.5 30 30 28.5 30.1 29.6 29.4 Yes 26.4 25 26.2 26.5 % No 20 22.9 18.9 15 Don't know/Not sure

10 5

0 November '02 January '03 March '03 May '03 July '03

Ethnic Breakdown

35.1 Up-country Tamil 30.7 32.5

7.9 Muslim 77.8 Don't know/Not sure 12.9 No 24.6

Tamil 17.6 Yes 54.9

37.2 Sinhala 27.4 25

0 102030405060708090%

Peace Confidence Index Page 32 Top-Line Results

What in your opinion will be the impact of this on the peace process?

National Trend

50 48.1 46.2 47.9 Will have a positive impact 40 34.6 Will have no impact % 30 24.9 Will have a negative 21 19.9 20.7 impact 20 17.9 18.6 18.2 19.6 Don't know/Not sure

10 11.9 10.5 7.6 6.3 0 January '03 March '03 May '03 July '03

Ethnic Breakdown

48.1 15.5 Up-country Tamil 13 23.4

13.9 Don't know/Not sure

Muslim 69.3 6.7 Will have a negative 9.1 impact 32.4 Will have no impact 6.7 Tamil 27.6 Will have a positive impact 25.7

51.6 23.4 Sinhala 5.9 18.5

0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 33 Top-Line Results

Do you think there should be a separate Muslim delegation to the peace talks?

National Trend

40 35.4 38.1

35 31.5 Yes 30 29.5 27.8 30 28.7 25 27.5 No % 21.9 20

15 Don't know/Not sure 10 5

0 March '03 May '03 July '03

Ethnic Breakdown

28.8 Up-country Tamil 23.1 42.6

3.4 Muslim 3.9 91.2 Don't know/Not sure No 15.3 Yes Tamil 33.9 43.4

33.1 Sinhala 22.4 33.4

0 20 40 60 80 100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 34 Top-Line Results

FOREIGN AID

Are you aware that international donors pledged $4.5 billion for a period of four years, to rebuild Sri Lanka, at the aid conference in Tokyo in June?

National Breakdown

26.5

Yes No

73.5

Ethnic Breakdown

26.5 National 73.5

49.5 Up-country Tamil 50.5

36.5 Muslim 63.5 No Yes Tamil 12.5 87.5 25.5 Sinhala 74.4

0 102030405060708090100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 35 Top-Line Results

If you are aware that international donors pledged $4.5 billion for a period of four years, to rebuild Sri Lanka, at the aid conference in Tokyo in June, what in your opinion will be the impact of this on the peace process?

National Breakdown

21.4 Will have a positive impact 5.8 Will have no impact Will have a negative impact 57 Don't know/Not sure 15.8

Ethnic Breakdown

21.4 5.8 National 15.8 57 5 7.6 Up-country Tamil 9.1 75.4 Don't know/Not sure 15.3 13.3 Will have a negative impact Muslim 18.9 Will have no impact 52.2 Will have a positive impact 3.4 2.1 Tamil 17.8 74.9 23.2 5.5 Sinhala 15.6 55.1

0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 36 Top-Line Results

RECENT KILLINGS

Are you aware of the recent killings of people who are informants of or were attached to Sri Lankan intelligence?

National Breakdown

32.6 Yes No

67.4

Ethnic Breakdown

32.6 National 67.4

68.9 Up-country Tamil 30.4

50.7 Muslim 48.8 No Yes

Tamil 15 85

30.6 Sinhala 69.3

0 102030405060708090 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 37 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the recent killings of people who are informants of or were attached to Sri Lankan intelligence, in your opinion, who do you think is responsible for these killings?

National Breakdown

60 55.9

% 30 22.9 20

10 5.3

0 LTTE Government Forces Don't know/Not Sure

Ethnic Breakdown

22.9 National 5.3 55.9 58 Up-country Tamil 16 10.9 Don't know/Not sure 58.9 Muslim 4.6 27.9 Government Forces 78 Tamil 7.9 LTTE 1.1 15.2 Sinhala 4.9 63.4

0 102030405060708090 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 38 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the recent killings of people who are informants of or were attached to Sri Lankan intelligence, what in your opinion will be the impact of this on the peace process?

National Breakdown

84.2 Will have a positive impact Will have no impact Will have a negative impact Don't know/Not sure

7.8 6.9 1.1

Ethnic Breakdown

7.8 84.2 National 6.9 1.1 5.2 Don't know/Not sure 54.6 Up-country Tamil 36 4.2 Will have a negative impact 10.1 Muslim 81.6 6.9 0.7 Will have no impact 11.6 26.9 Tamil 57.3 4.3 Will have a positive impact 7 90.3 Sinhala 1.5 0.7

0 20406080100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 39 Top-Line Results

Are you aware of the recent killings of those attached to Tamil political parties who are opposed to the LTTE?

National Breakdown

45 Yes No

Ethnic Breakdown

45 National 55

69 Up-country Tamil 30.3

51.7 Muslim No 48.3 Yes

Tamil 17.6 81.4

45 Sinhala 54.8 0 102030405060708090 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 40 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the recent killings of those attached to Tamil political parties who are opposed to the LTTE, in your opinion, who do you think is responsible for these killings?

National Breakdown

71.1 70

50 % 40

30 19.3 20

10 1 0 LTTE Government Forces Don't know/Not Sure

Ethnic Breakdown

19.3 National 1 71.1

61.5 Up-country Tamil 9.8 Don't know/Not Sure 0 50.4 Muslim0 Government Forces 40.1

77 LTTE Tamil 1.6 7.5

9.6 Sinhala 0.8 82.1 0 102030405060708090 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 41 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the recent killings of those attached to Tamil political parties who are opposed to the LTTE, what in your opinion will be the impact of this on the peace process?

National Breakdown

Will have a positive 76.5 impact

Will have no impact

12.2 Will have a negative 0.9 impact 10.4 Don't know/Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

12.2 76.5 National 10.4 0.9 0 65.4 Up-country Tamil 34.6 0 Don't know/Not sure 5.8 Will have a negative impact 85.8 Muslim Will have no impact 6.4 1.7 Will have a positive impact

8.8 26.1 Tamil 58.4 4.2 11.1 81.7 Sinhala 4.7 0.5 0 20 40 60 80 100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 42 Top-Line Results

INTERIM ADMINISTRATION

Are you aware of the Government’s proposals of the 17th of July, to the LTTE, to set up a Provincial Administrative Structure for the Northern and Eastern Province?

National Breakdown

72.6 Yes No 27.4

Ethnic Breakdown

72.6 National 27.4

79.1 Up-country Tamil 20.9

80.2 Muslim 19.8 No Yes

Tamil 45.2 54.8

73.3 Sinhala 26.3

0 102030405060708090 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 43 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the Government’s proposals of the 17th of July, to the LTTE, to set up a Provincial Administrative Structure for the Northern and Eastern Province, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of such a proposal?

National Breakdown

23.7 32.6

Approve Disapprove Don't know/Not sure

43.7

Ethnic Breakdown

23.7 National 43.7 32.6

22.8 Up-country Tamil 17.2 53.9 Don't know/Not sure 28.6 Disapprove Muslim 57.3 Approve 14.1

12 Tamil 2.9 84.5 24.1 Sinhala 50.3 24.8

0 102030405060708090 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 44 Top-Line Results

Please rank the following issues according to your order of importance – Mean [Average score from 5 point rating]

National Breakdown - Mean [Average score from 5 point rating]

4 3.76

3.5

3 2.67 2.5 2.09 2 1.5 1.05 0.98 0.94 1 0.76 0.55 0.55 0.39 0.5 0.32

Security Conflict Terrorism Education Corruption The Ethnic pollution Democracy Cost of living Human rights Environmental Law and order Unemployment

Peace Confidence Index Page 45 Top-Line Results

In your opinion what kind of impact has the peace process had on your living conditions?

National Breakdown

7.9

21 34 Has had a positive impact Has had no impact Has had a negative impact Don't know/Not sure

37.1

Ethnic Breakdown

7.9 21 National 37.1 34 2.4 3.6 Up-country Tamil 35.6 57.2 Don't know/Not sure 3.2 Has had a negative impact Muslim 32.9 25.5 Has had no impact 34 Has had a positive impact 0 2.1 Tamil 12.1 43.6 4.1 22.4 Sinhala 39.9 32.2

0 10203040506070 %

District sample (weighted) distribution in July 2003

DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 200 Gampaha 170 Kalutara 85 Kandy 99 Matale 33 Nuwara Eliya 50 Galle 76 Hambantota 39 Matara 58 Anuradhapura 55 Polonnaruwa 27 Kurunegala 114 Puttlam 51 Badulla 54 Monaragala 27 Ratnapura 74 Kegalle 61 Amparai 41 Batticaloa 37 Trincomalee 30 Vavuniya 11 NATIONAL 1392

Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in July 2003

ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 1160 Tamil 87 Muslim 88 Up-country Tamil 58 NATIONAL 1392

ii Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

Sampling Methodology

Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations in public confidence levels towards the peace process over time it is essential that the study be conducted repetitively with equal pauses during the study. Thus conducting the study bi-monthly with the use of a clearly defined and constant sample frame during each phase of the study ensures this fact.

The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of approximately 1600 respondents during each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to capture the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is undeniable that an individual’s opinion on the peace process is influenced by a number of factors, however the ethnic factor, which is the most important and influential, is the sole factor that has been accommodated in this model.

The total sample is distributed among 22 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar districts the entire area is not covered as a result of the prevailing conflict situation and logistical difficulties. The sample size is assigned to each stratum is approximately equal to the population proportions. However, some districts are over sampled due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the sample.

A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a district only if the population proportion of that particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the primary sampling unit using the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of Census and Statistics as the sample frame.

To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample within a DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a GND. Within a given GND the enumerator is advised to select a starting point randomly and proceed with interviews using the random walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure the random selection of households.

In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed to skip a house while selecting the households, thus resulting in the interview taking place at every alternative household. As the final sampling unit, the respondent is chosen from the household using the ‘KRISH’ grid thus ensuring that each member of the household has an equal chance of being selected to the PCI sample.

The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. It is noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model does not support the regional level analysis at the same level of precision.

Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social research organisation, which conducts polls on socio-economic and political issues. Operating under the Board of Directors of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA), SI was established in September 1999, and filled a longstanding vacuum for a permanent, professional and independent polling facility in Sri Lanka on social and political issues. Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a means by which the silent majority of the public can express their opinions on issues affecting them. Our mission is to conduct surveys on key social issues, thereby providing a means through which public opinion can influence the public policy debate.

Published by: Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.

Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: [email protected] Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org