An Opinion Poll On Peace Peace Confidence Index (PCI) TOP-LINE RESULTS Social Indicator July 2003 © 2003 Social Indicator ● Centre for Policy Alternatives hile many studies have been conducted on various aspects of W this conflict, none have attempted to capture the changes in public perception over a period of time. The lack of such a study was identified as a significant void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The study will be conducted bi- monthly to gauge the impact of local and international political developments on public attitudes towards the peace process. This report was prepared with funds provided by: The Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) under the Governance and Institutional Strengthening Project, (GISP) Sri Lanka. The U.S. Agency for International Development under the Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI), Sri Lanka. Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results CONTENTS • INTRODUCTION 01 • KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 02 • FINDINGS AT A GLANCE 06 • PEACE CONFIDENCE INDEX (PCI) 10 TOP-LINE RESULTS PERCEPTIONS OF WAR AND PEACE 10 SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT 14 CONFIDENCE 16 THE PEACE PROCESS 20 INTERNATIONAL THIRD PARTY FACILITATION 21 NORWEGIAN FACILITATION 22 INDIA’S INVOLVEMENT 24 • RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 25 SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION 25 FEDERAL SOLUTION 30 THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY 31 FOREIGN AID 34 RECENT KILLINGS 36 INTERIM ADMINISTRATION 42 • ANNEX Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003 Peace Confidence Index Page 1 Top-line Results INTRODUCTION OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of public confidence in the peace process using a set of standardised questions which remain unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of questions related to recent social, economic and political developments in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process, which by definition will change from one wave to another. Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective opinions of the public are given due importance and incorporated into the policy debate. SCOPE & METHODOLOGY The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face interviews amongst a 1,392 respondent sample. The 17 administrative districts of the seven provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government control of the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar were surveyed. Data is weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the districts in which the sample was surveyed. Thirteen waves of the PCI study were conducted in May, June, September and November 2001 and January, March, May, July, September, November 2002 and January, March and May 2003. The latest wave was conducted in July 2003. This publication presents only the top-line results of the July 2003 survey. The results of these fourteen waves offer us data for a comparative study on changing public opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war and peace to the proscription of the LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error. Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003 Peace Confidence Index Page 2 Top-Line Results KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS JUNE 2003-JULY 2003 • Sri Lanka's prime minister launched a major effort to revive peace talks with LTTE on June 9, saying he was willing to alter the constitution to meet their demand for a regional interim administration. Speaking at the start of an aid conference in Tokyo, Ranil Wickremesinghe said that once a political solution to end the 20-year conflict had been reached, his government would call a referendum to endorse changes to Sri Lanka's constitution. (9 June 2003)-(Reuters/http://in.news.yahoo.com/030609/137/24zgw.html) • The JVP issues a statement denying media reports that it was involved in the incident at a temple in Tokyo where Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe had to face a hostile crowd. (9 June 2003)- (www.lankapage.com) • Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister Vidar Helgesen believes a peace agreement is within reach, possibly within a month. His delegation is currently in Japan to participate in the Sri Lanka donor conference following a few days of talks in Colombo. (10 June 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • A suspected LTTE rebel was hospitalized after taking cyanide when police arrested him and a companion in Wellawatta on June 10. Police Deputy Inspector General Bodhi Liyanage said a pistol was seized from the suspects. (10 June 2003)-(AP / www.theacademic.org) • Donor countries and agencies participating in the Tokyo Conference on Reconstruction and Development of Sri Lanka, concluded here today, pledged financial assistance amounting to US dollars 4.5 billion and assured the profound support of the international community for establishing lasting peace in Sri Lanka. (10 June 2003)-(Daily News on June 11) • The US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Armitage on June 10 in his opening remarks at the Tokyo donor conference refused to remove the ban on the LTTE in the near future. He urged them to return to the negotiation table immediately to prove their sincerity. (11 June 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • The LTTE today reiterated that it would resume peace negotiations only after the Government puts forward the draft framework of the interim administrative framework for the North-East and rejected the Prime Minister's offer for a provincial administrative structure. "We are disappointed to note that the Prime Minister's statement does not offer anything new. The so-called provincial administrative structure' is the new name given to the Apex Council proposed by him for development and rejected by us as extremely limited and inadequate," the LTTE said in a statement issued by its political headquarters in Killinochchi. (11 June 2003)-(Daily News) • The LTTE today dismissed both the resolution and declaration of the Tokyo donor conference as "unacceptable" and reiterated its stance in sticking to its former proposal for the setting up of an interim administration as a pre-condition to resume talks with the government. The LTTE noted that the declaration formulated at the donor conference had no binding effect on it as it is not a party to the deliberations and hence deemed it totally "unacceptable." (11 June 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The LTTE is demanding the release of one of their cadres in remand custody, to release the two Police constables who were abducted by the LTTE on June 10 evening in Batticoloa, Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission Spokeswoman Agnes Bragadottir said today. The LTTE today confirmed to the SLMM and the Army Brigade Headquarters in Batticoloa that the two Police constables are in their custody. (11 June 2003)-(The Island) • PA media spokesperson Dr. Sarath Amunugama says Sri Lanka received not aid but loans at the Tokyo donor conference and adds that this would further increase the debt burdens on the people of this country. (11 June 2003)-(http://www.colombopage.com/#June1115140UN) • The LTTE again clearly says that they are not ready for any talks with the Sri Lanka government until a firm decision is made on an interim administration for the North and East. Issuing a statement from Killinochchi this evening, the LTTE said they do not want to negotiate with any international organisation on this matter. The LTTE has also rejected the offer, made by the Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe at the Japan aid conference, of a 'provisional administrative structure' within the laws of the land. They said it was a restatement of his previous position with new terminology. (11 June 2003)- (http://www.colombopage.com/archive/June11113155RA.html) • The LTTE today says they are ready to release two police constables if the government releases two LTTE cadres taken into custody recently. Two LTTE pistol gang members were arrested in Colombo two days ago. Military Spokesperson Brig. Sanath Karunaratne says one member is the secretary to LTTE Eastern Commander Karuna. (12 June 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • The Sihala Urumaya, today repeated the charge that only 2% of the funds pledged this week in Tokyo were aid and that the rest was loans. (12 June 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • A top anti-LTTE leader, T. Subathiran (45), was assassinated in the heart of northern Jaffna town early this morning by an “unidentified sniper”, allegedly an LTTE sharpshooter. (14 June 2003)- (http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/2003/06/15/stories/2003061505110100.htm) Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003 Peace Confidence Index Page 3 Top-Line Results • The World Bank announced today that it approved a US$125 million Poverty Reduction Support Credit for Sri Lanka which builds upon the country's poverty reduction strategy outlined in "Regaining Sri Lanka: Vision and Strategy for Accelerated Development". (18 June 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The JVP is demanding the top post in the proposed coalition with the SLFP, prompting the SLFP to create a new position with wide powers to accommodate President Chandrika Kumaratunga. (21 June 2003)-(Sunday Times) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga has ordered the security forces to be on the alert after the three armed forces commanders informed her that the LTTE was strengthening its war efforts under the cover of the ongoing peace process. (22 June 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga addressing the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) convention today said that she was impressed with the progress of the talks between the SLFP and the JVP. (22 June 2003)-(Daily News) • "I ordered the Sri Lanka Navy (SLN) to destroy the LTTE ship that carried weapons on June 14 to safeguard the country and its people," declared President Ms Chandrika Kumaratunga addressing the fourteenth national convention of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), the main constituent of the opposition People's Alliance (PA) Saturday evening at Nittambuwa in western province.