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Annual Meeting 2014 Southern California Earthquake Center ANNUAL MEETING 2014 SC EC an NSF+USGS center Z (x103) -15 -10 -5 SCEC Community Fault Model Version 5.0 and Revised 3D Fault Set for Southern California PROCEEDINGS VOLUME XXIV September 6-10, 2014 SCEC LEADERSHIP Core Institutions and Board of Directors (BoD) The Board of Directors (BoD) is the USC Harvard UC Los Angeles UC Santa Cruz USGS Pasadena primary decision-making body of Tom Jordan* Jim Rice Peter Bird Emily Brodsky Rob Graves SCEC; it meets three times annually to Caltech MIT UC Riverside UNR At-Large Member approve the annual science plan, Nadia Lapusta** Tom Herring David Oglesby Glenn Biasi Roland Bürgmann management plan, and budget, and deal with major business items. The CGS SDSU UC San Diego USGS Golden At-Large Member Center Director acts as Chair of the Chris Wills Steve Day Yuri Fialko Jill McCarthy Judi Chester Board. The liaison members from the Columbia Stanford UC Santa USGS Menlo * Chair U.S. Geological Survey are non-voting Bruce Shaw Paul Segall Barbara Park ** Vice-Chair members. Ralph Archuleta Ruth Harris Science Working Groups & Planning Committee (PC) The leaders of the Disciplinary Disciplinary Committee Committees and Interdisciplinary PC Chair Seismology Tectonic Geodesy EQ Geology Computational Sci Focus Groups serve on the Planning Greg Beroza* Egill Hauksson* Jessica Murray* Mike Oskin* Yifeng Cui* Committee (PC) for three-year terms. Elizabeth Cochran Dave Sandwell Whitney Behr Eric Dunham The PC develops the annual Science Collaboration Plan, coordinates Interdisciplinary Focus Groups activities relevant to SCEC science * PC Members USR SoSAFE EFP EEII priorities, and is responsible for John Shaw* Kate Scharer* Jeanne Hardebeck* Jack Baker* generating annual reports for the Brad Aagaard Ramon Arrowsmith Ilya Zaliapin Jacobo Bielak Center. Leaders of SCEC Special Projects (i.e., projects with funding FARM SDOT GMP outside the core science program) Greg Hirth* Kaj Johnson* Kim Olsen* also serve on the Planning Committee. Pablo Ampuero Thorsten Becker Christine Goulet They ensure the activities of the Special Projects Special Projects are built into the CME CSEP WGCEP annual science plans. Phil Maechling* Max Werner* Ned Field* Danijel Schorlemmer Technical Activity Groups Code Verification SIV EQ Simulators Transient Detection Ruth Harris Martin Mai Terry Tullis Rowena Lohman GMSV Nico Luco Sanaz Rezaeian The external Advisory Council (AC) Advisory Council (AC) provides guidance in all aspects of Center activities, including basic and Gail Atkinson, Chair Donna Eberhart-Phillips M. Meghan Miller John Vidale applied earthquake research and Western U UC Davis UNAVCO U Washington related technical disciplines, formal and informal education, and public Norm Abrahamson Kate Long Farzad Naeim Andrew Whittaker outreach. Members of the AC are PG&E CalOES John A Martin MCEER/Buffalo elected by the Board for three-year Roger Bilham Warner Marzocchi Tim Sellnow terms and may be re-elected. The U Colorado INGV Rome U Kentucky Council meets annually to review Center programs and plans, and prepares a report for the Center. Center Management Center Communication, Information Administration Education & Outreach Technology Center Director Associate Director Associate Director Associate Director Tom Jordan John McRaney Mark Benthien Phil Maechling Deputy Director Special Projects/Events Education Programs Research Programmer Greg Beroza Tran Huynh Bob de Groot Scott Callaghan Contracts & Grants Digital Products David Gill Karen Young John Marquis Masha Liukis Kevin Milner Admin Coordinator Web Developer Fabio Silva Deborah Gormley David Gill Systems Programmer Communications John Yu Jason Ballmann 2 | Southern California Earthquake Center Table of Contents SCEC Leadership ................................................................................................................................................ 2 Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................................... 3 State of SCEC, 2014 ........................................................................................................................................... 4 2013 Report of the Advisory Council .............................................................................................................. 12 Communication, Education, and Outreach Highlights ................................................................................... 18 Research Accomplishments ............................................................................................................................ 31 SCEC4 Science Milestones .............................................................................................................................. 73 Draft 2015 Science Plan .................................................................................................................................. 78 Meeting Agenda ............................................................................................................................................. 102 Meeting Presentations .................................................................................................................................. 111 Meeting Abstracts ......................................................................................................................................... 124 Meeting Participants ..................................................................................................................................... 191 SCEC Institutions ........................................................................................................................................... 197 2014 SCEC Annual Meeting | 3 STATE OF SCEC State of SCEC, 2014 Thomas H. Jordan, SCEC Director Welcome to the 2014 Annual Meeting! This week in Palm Springs both the weather and science promise to be hot! The SCEC community will gather here from across the country and around the world to share our recent research accomplishments and review our ambitious science plans. 573 people have pre-registered for the meeting (Figure 1), and 286 poster abstracts have been submitted—the largest numbers ever. The pre-registrants include more than 155 first-time attendees and almost two hundred undergraduate and graduate students. The goals of this 24th Annual Meeting are threefold. We are more than halfway through the SCEC4 cycle, so we need to assess our research accomplishments and plan our research for the remaining two years of SCEC4. We also need to gear up for the SCEC5 proposal, which will be submitted to the National Science Foundation (NSF) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) about one year from now. But our main goal is scientific: to learn all we can about earthquakes from the formal presentations and posters, and especially from the informal discussions with our scientific colleagues. Many of those discussions will concern the M6 South Napa earthquake of two weeks ago. This destructive event is a potent reminder of why we are here. Californians and other residents of U.S. earthquake country have been lucky to live in seismically quiescent times, but this good fortune cannot be sustained indefinitely. While we have the time, we must do all we can to understand earthquake phenomena in California and elsewhere, working with our many partners towards the goal of reducing seismic risk and improving the resilience of our communities. As a long-term resident of Hotel California, I Figure 1. Registrants at SCEC Annual Meetings 1991-2014. Number for 2014 (573) is pre-registrants, with 155 remain committed to our multi- first-time attendees. Pie chart shows the demographic profile for 2014 pre-registrants. The lower bar chart is decade project, and at this the history of SCEC base funding in as-spent dollars; the connected dots are the base-funding totals in 2002 dollars. Funding for 2014 is current authorization. meeting I will ask you to join me in continuing our deep collaboration into SCEC5. In the next few days, we’ll all be standing in the hot spray of a scientific firehose. As always, the Planning Committee has put together a blazing program. Saturday and Sunday feature workshops on six worthy topics: • San Gorgonio Pass Special Fault Study Area • Testing Operational Earthquake Forecasts and Seismic Hazard Models • Community Geodetic Model Workshop • Source Inverson Validation • Earthquake Ground Motion Simulation and Validation • Post-Earthquake Rapid Scientific Response At 6 pm Sunday evening, this year’s Distinguished Speaker, Dr. Norm Abrahamson of the Pacific Gas & Electric Company, will kick off the main meeting with a challenge-posing talk on “Reducing Epistemic Uncertainty in Seismic Risk Estimation.” 4 | Southern California Earthquake Center STATE OF SCEC Over the next three days, the agenda will feature keynote speakers addressing fundamental problems, discussions of major science themes, poster sessions on research results, earthquake response exercises, technical demonstrations, education and outreach activities, and some lively social gatherings. Assessing SCEC Accomplishments Last year, we requested an assessment of the key SCEC4 activities from our external Advisory Council (AC), and they responded with a detailed and thoughtful evaluation, narrated in terms of the “six fundamental problems of earthquake science” posed in the SCEC4 science plan (Table 1). They noted how these system-level problems
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