Famine Early Warning Systems Network 21 January 2004 Highlights o Rainfall has been well below normal in much of central and southern Mozambique this season, raising fears of a third consecutive drought year. o In addition, temperatures have been above normal, increasing evaporation rates and reducing soil moisture. o A district-by-district rainfall analysis shows that rainfall totals in much of central and southern region are below 50% of normal for the period. Eastern Inhambane and Gaza Provinces are the worst affected areas with shortfalls ranging from 17 to 29% of normal. In meteorological terms, less than 75% of normal rain over an extended period is considered a drought. More than half of the country meets this definition at present. The effects on agriculture depend on when crops were planted and how much longer the rains continue. o The poor rainfall has already affected agriculture in most of the southern region, where rains start earlier. The first planting has failed in much of the southern region, and households had to replant at least once. The amount of rainfall in January and February will determine whether these second and third plantings will succeed. o In the provinces of Manica, Sofala, and Tete crops are showing signs of marked stress, but because the season starts later and lasts longer in these areas, most plants could recover if substantial rainfall occurs in January and February. Some rains are forecast for mid-January in the central regions. o River and dam levels in areas south of the Save River are below both last year (a drought year) and the longer-term average. This is likely to negatively affect the water available for human and livestock consumption and for irrigated agriculture. o Food aid distributions in response to last year’s drought met closer to 90% of the VAC’s estimates of food aid needs in December. However, WFP’s plans to significantly scale down food distributions under its Emergency Operation after the harvest may have to be revised in light of the worsening prospects for the 2004 season in parts of the country. A clearer picture of the harvest prospects will emerge in February. This monthly bulletin is produced by FEWS NET in collaboration with its partners, including the Early Warning Department (DAP) and the Agricultural Market Information System (SIMA) of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADER), the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Program (WFP) . The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) is funded by USAID and managed by Chemonics International, Inc. FEWS NET Mozambique • Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development • National Directorate of Agriculture Av. das FPLM, 2698 • Instituto Nacional de Investigação Agronómica (INIA) P.O. Box 4739 Maputo, Mozambique Telephone: (258-1) 461872 • Facsimile: (258-1) 460588 • E-Mail: [email protected] • http://www.fews.net Below normal rainfall in more than half of the country December, January and February are Figure 1: Precipitation Anomaly: normally the rainiest months of the year, 1 November 2003 to 10 January 2004 when crops are planted and established throughout the country. As shown in Figure 1, most areas in central and southern Mozambique have received below normal rainfall so far this season. Particular areas of concern include the following: Southern Zambezia and Tete; northern Manica and Sofala; eastern Inhambane and Gaza; and all of Maputo Province. Although the satellite imagery shows a slight increase in rainfall, particularly in Maputo during the first dekad of 2004, the amounts were too small to make much of a difference overall. Table 1, below, which compares the current rainfall in selected INAM ground stations to the 30-year average for the first ten days of January 2004, highlights the continuation of the worrisome trend in the central and Table 1: Ground station observed vs Normal rainfall: Dekad 1, January 2004 Normal Percent of Source: USGS/FEWS NET Station: Observed (30 years) Normal Quelimane 38.0 83.4 46% southern provinces. Large parts of the country, Beira 0.0 95.4 0% including southern Zambezia and Tete Provinces and the whole of Sofala, Manica, Inhambane, Vilankulos 2.6 43.8 6% eastern Gaza and Maputo Provinces have Inhambane 0.0 38.0 0% recorded less than 10 mm of rain during the first Maputo 8.1 29.1 28% dekad of January, compared to a normal range of Data source: INAM between 29 and 95 mm. Some rain has fallen in the second ten days of January, raising hopes of an improvement in some places. Variation in rainfall anomalies across the country Figure 2 illustrates rainfall deficits/surpluses for this time of year across the country, highlighting, in particular, the large deficits in the central and southern regions. Eastern Inhambane and Gaza Provinces are the most affected areas, with shortfalls ranging from 17% of normal rainfall in Zavala District and 29% of normal in Govuro District. In meteorological terms, less than 75% of normal rainfall over an extended period is considered a drought. The impact of low rainfall on agriculture depends of the timing of rainfall compared to the plant’s requirements at different stages of growth. The following table lists districts with less than 40% of normal rainfall: 2 Of particular note, the normally-productive area of Province District % of southwestern Zambezia Province, consisting of normal Milange, Morrumbala, Mopeia, Inhassunge and Maputo Matutuine 28% Nicoadala Districts, has received rainfall totals ranging Maputo 32% from 43 to 58% of normal. This area normally exports Manhiça 33% its maize surpluses to Malawi and the southern Gaza Xai-Xai 18% provinces. The rainfall deficits are also seen in Mandlakazi 24% southern Malawi, eastern Zimbabwe, South Africa, Bilene 26% Swaziland and other parts of the region. Chibuto 31% Guijá 39% Northeastern Mozambique (eastern Cabo Delgado Inhambane Zavala 17% Maxixe 19% Jangamo 21% Figure 2 Vilankulos 23% Inhambane 23% Inharrime 23% Massinga 24% Homoine 25% Morrumbene 25% Inhassoro 27% Govuro 29% Panda 31% Mabote 32% Funhalouro 37% Manica Machaze 29% Mossurize 31% Tambara 36% Sofala Chemba 34% Machanga 34% Buzi 34% Chibabava 35% Caia 36% Maríngue 38% Tete Mutarara 38% Moatize 38% Zambezia Chinde 26% Ibo 36% Cabo Palma 38% Delgado Province) has also received below normal rainfall, with Palma District reporting only 38% of normal rainfall. This is an Source: USGS/FEWS NET, Satellite rainfall estimates extension of the more serious rainfall shortage in southeastern Tanzania. Higher than normal November and December temperatures have compounded the negative effects of these seasonal rainfall shortages, increasing evaporation rates and reducing soil moisture. Agricultural season: a qualitative evaluation of the season in parts of southern Mozambique From 12 to 14 January 2003, a team comprised of representatives from FEWS NET and the Maputo Agriculture Provincial Directorate undertook a rapid qualitative crop assessment of three 3 districts of Maputo Province. The main purpose of the field trip was to assess the crop conditions given the poor rainfall received so far this season. The team visited four administrative posts, including: Machangulo in Matutuine District; Changalane in Namaacha District; and Mahel and Panjane in Magude District. In general, the first planting in September/October failed, and households had to replant. The crops planted in late November and early December are standing and could recover with adequate rains. Selected details from the ground assessment follow: • Changalane Administrative post, Namaacha District: The soils are fertile and maize is mostly single cropped. No signs of peanut, cowpea or cassava plants in the alto (slightly elevated, sandy soil) areas. As a result of consecutive plantings, crops are currently at many different stages of development. Crops planted in October and November are worst off and will likely fail. Some farmers have replanted up to three times, and seeds are in very short supply. Some are still replanting, this at a time of year when they are normally beginning to harvest green maize. The planting may succeed if the short-cycle maize seeds are used and steady rains occur. However, most of the certified seeds were used in the first planting and now the seeds available are less reliable and have a lower germination rate. Pasture condition is improving due to recent rains. • Machangulo Administrative post, Matutuine District: This is a peninsular portion of Maputo Province, where fishing and hunting are the main activities for obtaining both food and cash income. Agriculture is not a major activity, as it is in the rest of the district. Nevertheless, some households living in places where agriculture is possible have planted maize, cassava and groundnuts. The prolonged dry spell has affected crops here as well, with the main hope resting on cassava, which appears to be surviving the dry conditions. Some rain will be necessary for this cassava to develop and mature; the cassava harvest is expected to start in June. • Mahel and Panjane Administrative posts, Magude District: Land preparation started very early, before the main agricultural season, in August 2003. During the November VAC monitoring assessment, the crops were in good condition. However, the rains stopped by the end of November and were followed by a long dry spell with higher than normal temperatures, and consequently, the first planting was totally lost. Households started a process of successive land preparation followed by sowing whenever it rained. A total of four to five plantings have taken place with no success. Households have now exhausted their seeds and are asking for seed contributions in order to help them continue to plant. Pasture conditions had not yet deteriorated at the time of the visit. Although no field assessments were carried out in central Mozambique, based on information gathered by the agricultural services in Manica, Sofala, and Tete, crops are showing signs of marked stress, but could recover if substantial rainfall occurs.