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Home , Alan Keyes, Kansas Democratic Party

Feb. 9-10 Primaries & Caucuses Brainroom Briefing Book

Bryan S. Murphy Sr. Political Affairs Specialist Fox News Channel

Table of Contents

The Democrats – p. 3 The Republicans – p. 4 Republican Caucuses – p. 5 Washington Caucuses – p. 8 Nebraska Democratic Caucuses – p. 11 Louisiana Primaries – p. 13 Territories – p. 16 Maine Democratic Caucuses – p. 17 Endnotes – p. 19

2 The Democrats The Democratic party is prepared for a marathon nomination battle between Obama and Clinton.

The candidates, who face a crushing timetable of campaign fundraisers and forthcoming primaries, immediately switched their focus to Saturday’s contests.1

Obama and Clinton are competing for sizable if somewhat overshadowed delegate prizes this weekend as voters in four scattered states take their turn saying which one should be the Democratic presidential nominee.

The two Democrats are competing for 161 delegates Saturday in Washington state, Louisiana, Nebraska and the Virgin Islands, followed by Maine caucuses with 24 delegates Sunday.

But they weren't going all out. Obama was the only candidate campaigning in all four states; Clinton planned stops in Washington and Maine, leaving Louisiana and Nebraska to husband Bill and daughter Chelsea.

Clinton and Obama both had an eye on the round that follows -- the trio of races Tuesday in , and the District of Columbia -- and the senator in particular was gearing her campaign toward the high stakes primaries in Ohio and on March 4.

Obama has proved a strong performer in the complex logistics of caucuses and a candidate flush with money, two advantages going into the weekend. Clinton enjoyed several notable endorsements in Washington and Maine, and a strong organization.2

Obama, who raised a record $32 million in January, is likely to capitalize in the short term, given his advantage in these states and in the votes next Tuesday in Virginia, Washington DC and Maryland.

But Clinton, whose campaign said she would probably be outspent "again" by Obama in a protracted race, is considered the frontrunner in the more delegate-rich states of Ohio and Texas, which vote on March 4.

In a sign that she has been outstripped by Obama's fundraising prowess, Clinton spokesman said she had loaned her campaign $5 million late last month.3

3 The Republicans Drama dropped out of the Republican contest when Romney suspended his campaign Thursday, leaving McCain the prohibitive favorite, Huckabee the long-shot and Paul a postscript. Nonetheless, voters in Washington state, Kansas and Louisiana take part in Republican contests Saturday that, absent an improbable insurgency, have become a virtual coronation.4

Romney's decision to suspend his campaign, announced Thursday, marked a remarkable turnaround for McCain, a former Vietnam prisoner-of-war whose campaign some seven months ago was barely viable, out of cash and losing staff.

President Bush on Friday rallied his party's conservative wing to unite behind the Republican nominee in the battle for the presidency, but avoided mention of McCain.

McCain still has to win over some right-wing members of his party upset by his prior support of a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants and stances on global warming and campaign finance reform that break with the conservative party line.

As part of that effort, McCain told the conservative group in a speech Thursday that he cannot succeed without their support, and any differences within the party are eclipsed by his differences with chief Democratic rivals Clinton and Obama.5

Huckabee is still mathematically viable in the race, but he will need a lot of help from Romney's supporters if he doesn't prevail in upcoming contests. Numbers aside, Huckabee also faces a steep challenge. The former Arkansas governor's primary constituency is Christian evangelicals, and he has won only in states where they dominate presidential contests – Iowa, Arkansas, , Tennessee, West Virginia and .

Privately, some Huckabee aides were eager to see their boss follow Romney's lead. Publicly, Huckabee showed no sign of backing down. "I still believe that this thing is a long way from being settled. And, now that the field is down to two, our chances have substantially improved," he said in .

The only other way Huckabee could seize the nomination is if conservative complaints about McCain turn into a full-scale revolt. But that doesn't appear to be happening, if McCain's reception at the Conservative Political Action Conference was any indication. Activists there seemed resigned – if not pleased – at the prospect of McCain's nomination.6

Delegates Available on Feb. 9 Democratic Republican Guam (R-Territorial Conv.) – 6 Kansas (R-Caucuses) – 36 Louisiana 56 20 Nebraska (D-Caucuses) 24 – Northern Marianas (R-Precinct) – – Virgin Island (D-Caucuses) 3 – Washington (D-Caucuses) 78 – Washington (R-Caucuses) – 18 Total 161 80

Delegates Available on Feb. 10 Democratic Republican Maine (D-Caucuses) 24 – Total 24 –

4 Kansas Republican Caucuses

Kansas Republican Caucuses – Caucus Times Caucuses start at 10:00am local (11:00 am and 12:00pm ET). One hour allowed for balloting. Caucuses must end by 5:00pm CT; most will actually finish by 1:00pm local (2-3:00pm ET). Results released by party (on web and at media center) as processed; starting at 2:00pm CT (3:00pm ET) . AP latest Poll closing time 6:00pm ET.

Kansas Republican Caucuses Delegates Available on Feb. 9: 36 Pledged Delegates: 36 Unpledged Delegates: 3 Of the 36 pledged delegates, 24 are allocated from statewide voting (at-large), and 12 are allocated by congressional district. Each Congressional district will award all 3 delegates to the Presidential candidate receiving the most votes in that CD caucus. The 24 At large delegates awarded winner-take-all to the Presidential candidate receiving the most votes statewide on Feb 9 (provided that the statewide winner also is the leader in at least 2 Congressional districts; if not, then 24 AL delegates are uncommitted).

The campaign: McCain planned to speak in Kansas City on Friday, en route to Seattle. Huckabee laid out a full day of activity across Kansas on Friday, in Olathe, Wichita, Topeka and Garden City.

Caucuses in Kansas lured presidential hopefuls McCain and Huckabee after Romney's decision to suspend his campaign changed the complexion of the state's Republican contest. 7

Lay of the land: McCain was favored even before Romney's departure, but Huckabee also hoped to do well, on the strength of social conservatives. State party leaders had split endorsements between McCain and Romney.8

On Thursday, Huckabee picked up the endorsement of Kansans for Life's political action committee. The anti- group is the state's largest and is influential among Kansas Republicans.

Many conservatives had been supporting Romney and conservatives control the state party's leadership. Yet McCain had the endorsement of a leading Kansas conservative, U.S. Sen. .

"If Huckabee decides this is his big opportunity to rally conservatives around the flag, the Kansas caucus will be the first test of whether he can do it," said state GOP Chairman , who'd endorsed Romney.

Kansas Republicans plan to caucus Saturday at 67 sites.

GOP activists were finding it difficult to handicap the state contest with Romney out. Nationally, Romney's announcement meant McCain had a virtual lock on the nomination.9

Louisiana and Washington are the only other states having Republican caucuses or primaries on Feb. 9, and they are distributing their delegates proportionally rather than using a winner-take-all format, Kris Kobach, state Republican Party chairman, said. Kobach said he urged the party over the summer to make it a winner-take-all caucus to draw candidates to the state.10

Republicans expect so many people to show up for their Feb. 9 caucus in Wichita that they've switched the site from the jury room of the Sedgwick County Courthouse to the Exhibition Hall at Century II.11

5

Republicans vow that their caucuses won't suffer the overcrowding, long waits and confusion that plagued Democratic caucus sites Tuesday night.12

37,089 people turned out statewide for Super Tuesday’s Kansas Democratic Presidential caucuses, shattering expectations by Party officials.13 The 6,800 voters in the Wichita area quickly overwhelmed caucus sites that had been set up for a much smaller Democratic turnout.

GOP leaders worked on contingency plans Wednesday to make sure their voters don't face the same problems.14

Kansas Voter Registration Statistics January 1, 2008 Democratic 432,309 Libertarian 9,124 Reform 1,413 Republican 742,559 Unaffiliated 447,634 Total 1,633,039

About 64 percent of Kansas’ voting-age citizens cast a in the 2004 general election, the same as the national rate. Kansas’ 2007 population of 2.8 million includes a higher percentage of the non-Hispanic white-alone population and a lower percentage of Hispanics and blacks than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.

Selected Characteristics Kansas U.S. Median age 36.0 36.4 Women 50.4% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 81.1% 66.4% Black alone 6.0% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 8.6% 14.8% Median household income $45,478 $48,451 Foreign born 6.3% 12.5% Persons below poverty 12.4% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 28.6% 27.0% Median home value $114,400 $185,20015

State law previously set the first Tuesday in April as the date of the primary, a date universally seen as too late. The state canceled votes planned for 1996, 2000 and 2004, partly because of the cost.16

Kansas has held just two presidential primaries, in 1980 and 1992. Republican and Democrat won the 1980 party primaries, which saw record voter turnouts. But in 1992, when Republican George Bush and Democrat were runaway winners, the turnout diminished.

There was such little interest in 1996, when Clinton was running for re-election and Kansan was the GOP favorite in the state, that the Legislature cancelled the presidential primary.

State law called for Kansas to hold another primary in 2000, but the Legislature canceled the April 4 election, not wanting to spend the $1.5 million needed for it.17

6 In 2004, money and the expectation that the state’s primary wouldn’t attract much attention were concerns once more and the 2004 primary was cancelled just as the primaries in 1996 and 2000 had been.

A budget debate in the Legislature triggered a vote to remove state funding for a 2008 presidential primary in Kansas. Critics of conducting the first Kansas presidential primary since 1992 argued the expenditure of $2 million.18

State leaders of both parties planned their caucuses to grab as much attention as they could. After the Legislature canceled plans to hold early primaries, the parties decided to hold caucuses at their own expense. And they've picked dates they think will make Kansas more significant to the nominating process.

Democrats chose Feb. 5, Super Tuesday. They figured that even though Kansas was one of 22 states holding Democratic caucuses or primaries that day, if a candidate is to emerge that night, at least the state would have been part of it.

Republicans came up with Feb. 9 to separate themselves from Super Tuesday. They also decided to offer a winner-take-all format that will put 36 of their 39 delegates up for grabs.19

7 Washington Caucuses

Washington Democratic Caucuses – Caucus Times Caucuses convene at 1:00pm PT (4:00pm ET). Delegate process cannot begin before 1:30pm. Caucus cannot end before 2:00pm. AP latest poll closing 5:00pm ET. Results not expected until 6:00pm PT (9:00pm ET).

Washington Republican Caucuses– Caucus Times Caucuses convene at 1:00pm PT (4:00pm ET). Balloting for delegates must starts 1:30pm. State party has asked caucuses to finish and send results to state party by 5:30pm (8:30pm ET), although most caucuses expected to be finished much earlier. AP latest poll closing 8:30pm ET.

Washington Democratic Caucuses Delegates Available on Feb. 9: 78 Pledged Delegates: 78 Unpledged Delegates: 19 The Feb. 9 binding precinct caucuses are open to all voters, not just Democrats. The state also holds a presidential primary for both parties on Feb. 19, but it is a non-binding “beauty contest” for Democrats and will not affect delegate allocation.

Washington Republican Caucuses Delegates Available on Feb. 9: 18 Pledged Delegates: 37 Unpledged Delegates: 3 Republicans to allocate 18 of their delegates at the Feb. 9 caucuses, and 19 at the Feb. 19 primary. Top vote-getter in each congressional district at the primary gets one delegate. Delegates awarded proportionally to candidates with at least 20 percent of the vote. “At-will” delegates selected at Feb. 9 caucuses, but not technically bound to particular candidate.

The campaign: Obama and Clinton were both campaigning in the state, with the New York senator on the Seattle waterfront Thursday night and making appearances Friday, and the senator rallying Friday at an arena in the shadow of the city's Space Needle. Across the Cascade Mountains, Obama's wife, Michelle, planned to campaign Friday in Spokane.

McCain planned an event Friday evening in Seattle and Huckabee's wife, Janet, was expected in the city's eastern suburbs Friday. Schedules could change because of Romney's withdrawal, but McCain firmed up his Seattle plans after his rival's announcement.20

McCain's state director, Seattle attorney Chris Fidler, said Romney's departure could mean gains for McCain, but that the campaign takes nothing for granted yet. visited the state last week and Huckabee has campaigned here.21

Lay of the land: Obama is thought to have an advantage in the caucuses, which are dominated by party activists, especially in liberal Seattle. However, Washington has a strong history of electing women.

Both senators from the state are women and have endorsed Clinton. Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire has not yet made her pick but said she would before the caucuses.

Polls done shortly before dropped out indicated a tight race between Clinton and Obama, with Edwards a strong third. Since then, some of Edwards' strongest supporters have endorsed Obama.22

8 Polls and independent analysis forecast an Obama victory in the Democratic caucuses, although Clinton forces are pressing hard. Clinton backers reported a surge in support since Super Tuesday and said they will do well in Washington.23

Social conservatives have a history of packing the Republican caucuses, which could boost Huckabee. But with McCain now a shoo-in for the Republican nomination, some who would normally vote in the Republican race might be drawn to the higher-stakes Democratic contest. Washington voters don't register by party.

Political scientist Bryan Jones of the University of Washington says of the voters: "They're Obama-crazy here, even the Republicans."24

Democratic Chairman Dwight Pelz said the Clinton-Obama race is essentially a tie nationally and that the delegate hunt could last another month, or even stretch all the way to the national convention in Denver in August.

"We expect a huge, record-breaking turnout for the caucuses," Pelz said. "We've planned on 125,000 and it could be 200,000. People are very excited."

The neighborhood gatherings are on Saturday, beginning at 1 p.m. local, at hundreds of schoolhouses, church basements, union halls and living rooms. All registered voters are welcome, but must identify themselves as a party member at least for the day.

The state also has a presidential primary, conducted mostly via mail, on Feb. 19. Republicans will use results to elect half of their national delegates, but Democrats view the primary as a nonbinding popularity contest and won't use it to allocate delegates.

The state hasn't gone Republican for president in the general election since Ronald Reagan ran in 1980 and 1984.25

Washington Voter Registration Statistics Voters do not register with a particular party Total 3,302,376

Washington had a 2007 population of 6.5 million that includes a higher percentage of Asians and a lower percentage of blacks and Hispanics than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics. About 68 percent of Washington’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, above the national rate of 64 percent.

Selected Characteristics Washington U.S. Median age 36.7 36.4 Women 50.1% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 76.5% 66.4% Black alone 3.6% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 9.1% 14.8% Median household income $52,583 $48,451 Foreign born 12.4% 12.5% Persons below poverty 11.8% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 30.5% 27.0% Median home value $267,600 $185,20026

9 Washington switched from a caucus system to primaries in 1992, after Pat Robertson won among Republicans and Jesse Jackson finished a solid second among Democrats in 1988. But Democrats have never chosen to allocate delegates according to the results, preferring to use the results from party caucuses for that. In 2000 , having lost in Iowa and New Hampshire and having no other states to contest for five weeks, came into Washington for the February 29 contest. To no avail; won by about 2–1. George W. Bush beat John McCain by a razor- thin margin in a contest that counted a little toward delegate selection. In 2004 Washington’s Democrats held caucuses February 7, which counted for nothing and got little notice.

In early 2007 the parties were divided on what to do in 2008. Republicans and Secretary of State Sam Reed wanted to hold a primary on February 5 that would count toward electing delegates; Democrats were divided, with many for eliminating the primary. In June, a bipartisan panel of state lawmakers and party leaders came to agreement and voted unanimously to hold the primary on February 19, 2008, in the hopes of being early enough to be relevant but not so early as to get lost amid the many states holding February 5 contests. Both parties also will hold caucuses on February 9. Republicans will allocate roughly half of their delegates based on primary results; Democrats will only use caucus results to allocate delegates.27

February 29, 2000 Washington Republican Caucus Bush (R) (58%) McCain (R) (39%) Keyes (R) (2%) Other (1%)

February 29, 2000 Washington Democratic Caucus Gore (D) (68%) Bradley (D) (31%)

February 7, 2004 Washington Democratic Caucus Kerry (D) (49%) Dean (D) (30%) Kucinich (D) (8%) Edwards (D) (7%) Clarks (D) (3%) Other (3%)

10 Nebraska Democratic Caucuses

Nebraska Democratic Caucuses – Caucus Times Caucuses convene at various times throughout the day. Presidential poll held no later than 7:30pm local (8:30 and 9:30pm ET). Party expects to start reporting by 7:00-7:30pm CT (8:00 - 8:30pm ET). AP latest poll closing time 8:00pm ET

Nebraska Democratic Caucuses Delegates Available on Feb. 9: 24 Pledged Delegates: 24 Unpledged Delegates: 7 16 CD delegate spots "allocated in proportion to the percentage of the caucus vote won in that district by each preference, expect that preferences falling below a 15% threshold shall not be awarded any delegates. Percentages of presidential preferences shall be determined on the Precinct level" (Section III A 4 a) 8 AL and PLEO delegates "allocated among presidential preferences according to the division of preferences among convention participants..." (D 4a)

The campaign: Obama was the only candidate visiting Nebraska, with an Omaha rally Thursday night that drew more than 10,000 people. "You're here because you don't want to just be against something," he said. "You want to be for something."

Chelsea Clinton was campaigning for her mother, and took questions for an hour Thursday from students in Lincoln. Asked why voters should trust her mother, she said: "She does what she says she will do." She planned to meet students in Omaha on Friday.

Michelle Obama was rallying for her husband Friday in Lincoln. Obama has run TV ads in Omaha and Lincoln, and a radio spot in rural areas. Clinton also introduced a 30-second ad that features a testimonial from former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey.28

The campaign in Nebraska will not rival the intensity of the or Super Tuesday, but it will give the state a taste of presidential politics and a chance to participate in one of the most exciting races in decades. Obama, for example, picked up an endorsement today from Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey

"This is going to be a delegateby-delegate fight, and every delegate matters," said Rory Steele, an Obama spokesman in Nebraska. "We're playing that way, and Nebraska is an important state for our campaign."

In fact, it's already paid dividends to the state Democratic Party. About 1,000 additional people have registered as Democrats in Douglas County in the past month, party officials said, while an additional 500 registered in Lancaster County

The party attributed the increase to the caucuses, and they expect more to come. Republicans and independents can register as Democrats Saturday at any caucus location

State party officials hope that when the last caucus vote is counted, they will have 7,000 more registered Democrats in Nebraska, making up for those lost in the 2006 governor's primary race

That year, thousands of Democrats switched to the Republican Party to vote in the GOP primary, which featured former Nebraska football coach Tom Osborne and Dave Heineman.29

Lay of the land: The Clinton campaign claimed a strong grass-roots organization. Obama has been endorsed by state party leaders and lawmakers as well as by Sen. Ben Nelson, the only Democratic member of the state's congressional delegation. 30

11 Nebraska Voter Registration Statistics 2006 Democratic 370,600 Green 444 Nebraska 7152 Nonpartisan 187,004 Republican 572,869 Total 1,138,069

Nebraska had a 2007 population of 1.8 million that includes a higher percentage of non-Hispanic whites and a lower percentage of blacks and Hispanics than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics. About 65 percent of Nebraska’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election; the national rate was 64 percent.

Selected Characteristics Nebraska U.S. Median age 36.0 36.4 Women 50.4% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 84.9% 66.4% Black alone 4.4% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 7.4% 14.8% Median household income $45,474 $48,451 Foreign born 5.6% 12.5% Persons below poverty 11.5% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 26.9% 27.0% Median home value $119,200 $185,20031

In recent years, the primary hardly mattered. Nominations are now sewn up long before May, and Nebraska voted as unnoticed then as in November (Over the last 50 years, Nebraska has voted more Republican in presidential general elections than all but one other state—61.1% to ’s 61.6%.).32

May 9, 2000 Nebraska Democratic Caucus Gore (D) (70%) Bradley (D) (27%) LaRouche (D) (3%) Other (1%)

May 11, 2004 Nebraska Democratic Caucus Kerry (D) 73% Edwards (D) 14% Dean (D) 8% Kucinich (D) 2% Sharpton (D) 2% Other 1% Kerry (D) 73%

12 Louisiana Primaries

Louisiana Primaries – Poll Hours 6 AM – 8 PM CT; Latest Poll Closing Time: 9 PM ET

Louisiana Democratic Primary Delegates Available on Feb. 9: 56 Pledged Delegates: 56 Unpledged Delegates: 10 37 CD delegate spots "allocated in proportion to the percentage of the caucus vote won in that district by each preference, expect that preferences falling below a 15% threshold shall not be awarded any delegates. Percentages of presidential preferences shall be determined on the Precinct level" (Section III A 4 a) 19 AL and PLEO delegates "allocated among presidential preferences according to the division of preferences among convention participants..." (D 4a)

Louisiana Republican Primary Delegates Available on Feb. 9: 20 Pledged Delegates: 44 Unpledged Delegates: 3 The 20 delegates available on Feb. 9 are bound to the primary winner only if he gets more than 50 percent of the vote. The 24 other delegates will be selected at the Feb. 16 state convention. And should no candidate get 50 percent on Feb. 9, those 20 delegates are selected at the Feb. 16 state convention as well.

The campaign: Obama spoke Thursday to a crowd of some 4,000 in New Orleans, the city where Edwards began and ended his campaign. Bill Clinton was visiting the state Friday but his wife wasn't coming, barring a change in plans. 33

Black legislators across the Louisiana gave Obama their backing on Wednesday, just three days before Louisianans go to the polls in the party primary.34

Saturday's primary in Louisiana will be more important to Democrats, who award most of the state's 67 delegates by congressional district based on the proportion of the votes cast for each candidate.

Capturing Louisiana Republican delegates for the national convention is a little more difficult. The party sends to the convention 24 delegates who are automatically uncommitted. To earn the remaining 23 of the 47 GOP delegates, a candidate would have to get more than 50 percent of the vote. If none of the candidates pass the 50 percent mark, those 23 delegates remain uncommitted.

Earning more than 50 percent of the vote was thought to be unlikely, but with Romney’s withdrawal from the race the task has gotten much easier. McCain and Huckabee are now the only two major Republican candidates competing in the state.

McCain has been to the state at least three times. McCain appears to have strong support in the state, Louisiana Republican Party Chairman Roger Villere Jr. McCain said. Although GOP delegates will not be chosen until after the primary, 60 percent of the Louisiana party members picking representatives to the convention have already committed to McCain, Villere said. "He's picked up momentum," Villere said. "He should do really well."

The decision by Louisiana's political parties to move up their presidential primaries to this Saturday is paying off by giving the state national attention.

13 Traditionally, presidential candidates from both parties have sewn up the party nomination based on the cast in two dozen states on Super Tuesday.

Because neither the Democratic nominees nor the Republican nominees have garnered the necessary number of delegates to achieve the nomination at this point, Louisiana's delegates to the national convention are coveted.35

Lay of the land: A heavy turnout by black voters would benefit Obama. The state is close to one- third black and has only a small population of Hispanics, a group that has favored Clinton.

McCain was expected to draw the most strength in urban areas, mostly in the south, while Huckabee's popularity was concentrated in the heavily Protestant northern part of the state. The 20 Republican delegates are only awarded if a candidate gets a majority of the votes, a prospect enhanced now that Romney has suspended his campaign. 36

Louisiana Voter Registration Statistics January 11, 2008 Democratic 1,496,864 Republican 704,939 Other 637,484 Total 2,839,287

Louisiana had a 2007 population of 4.3 million that includes a lower percentage of non-Hispanic whites and a higher percentage of blacks than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics. About 64 percent of Louisiana’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, the same as the overall national rate.

Selected Characteristics Louisiana U.S. Median age 35.7 36.4 Women 51.4% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 62.8% 66.4% Black alone 31.7% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 2.9% 14.8% Median household income $39,337 $48,451 Foreign born 2.9% 12.5% Persons below poverty 19.0% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 20.3% 27.0% Median home value $114,700 $185,20037

Louisiana has never played a significant role in presidential primaries and caucuses, with one odd exception. That was in 1996, when Republican allies of set up a pre-Iowa-and-New Hampshire February 6 caucus. The aim was to jump-start Gramm’s campaign; instead the caucuses killed it. Only 20,000 Republicans showed up at 42 voting sites voted (as compared to 100,000 at 2,000 sites in Iowa), and won more votes than Gramm and took 13 of the 21 delegates. Gramm’s campaign in Iowa faltered, and he left the race before the vote in New Hampshire.

In December 1999, Governor Mike Foster got the state central committee to cancel the caucus and hold a March primary. He cited the low turnout in 1996 and the fact that only , and were competing in Louisiana. George W. Bush, Foster’s candidate, won in March. In 2004 the primary was held March 9, when both party’s nominations had already been clinched.38

14

March 14, 2000 Louisiana Republican Caucus Bush (R) (84%) McCain (R) (9%) Keyes (R) (6%) Forbes (R) (1%) Other (1%)

March 14, 2000 Louisiana Democratic Caucus Gore (D) (73%) Bradley (D) (20%) LaRouche (D) (4%) Other (3%)

March 9, 2004 Louisiana Democratic Caucus Kerry (D) (70%) Edwards (D) (16%) Dean (D) (5%) Clark (D) (4%) Other (3%) Kucinich (D) (1%)

15 Territories

Guam Republican Territorial Convention Delegates Available on Feb. 9: 6 Pledged Delegates: 6 Unpledged Delegates: 3 Selection Details: Territorial Convention

The Governor of Guam, Felix Camacho, along with Guam Republican Party Chairman Phil Flores, National Committeeman Eddie B. Calvo, and National Committeewoman Mary C. Torres have all endorsed McCain.39

Northern Mariana Islands Republican Precinct Clubs Delegates Available on Feb. 9: 0 Pledged Delegates: 0 Unpledged Delegates: 9

Virgin Island Democratic Caucuses Delegates Available on Feb. 9: 3 Pledged Delegates: 3 Unpledged Delegates: 6 At-Large delegates positions will be allocated to presidential preferences through a proportional representation system. Selection of delegates will take place from 12pm to 8pm ET. All registered Democrats are eligible to vote in the caucus.40

The campaign: Alas, no fun in the sun for any candidate.

Lay of the land: In November, Obama attracted more than 100 supporters to a one-hour reception in St. Thomas that cost up to $2,300 to attend. 41

16 Maine Democratic Caucuses

Maine Democratic Caucuses – Caucus Times Caucuses begin between 12:00pm and 8:00pm. Initial results expected after 6:30pm, with the bulk of the returns after 8:00pm. AP Latest poll closing 8:00pm ET

Maine Democratic Caucuses Delegates Available on Feb. 10: 24 Pledged Delegates: 24 Unpledged Delegates: 10 Participants at these closed caucuses choose delegates to the May 31 state convention. The delegates are allocated to presidential contenders in proportion to the percentage of support each candidate receives, with a 15 percent threshold.

The campaign: After Saturday, Maine will hold Democratic caucuses Sunday. Maine will be the only state in the nation holding a caucus on Sunday. 42

Clinton planned to campaign at the University of Maine in Orono and Obama planned a rally in Bangor, both on Saturday. Bill Clinton was the advance man for his wife, rallying Thursday in Portland.

Lay of the land: Gov. John Baldacci is backing Clinton, and led several dozen state lawmakers in a rally for her Thursday. Obama swept up $400,000 in a visit to Portland in September, in one demonstration of his drawing power in the state, said Maine House Speaker Glenn Cummings, who backs him. 43

In Maine, Obama and Clinton will compete for 24 so-called pledged delegates, the electors who will cast ballots for the Democratic nominee in August at the party's convention in Denver. Voters who attend Sunday's caucuses will elect delegates to the Democratic state convention in May.

Aides and surrogates from both campaigns, including Sen. Kennedy for Obama, are flooding the state. Both camps have 20 paid staffers working to organize supporters and get out the vote, organizers said.

Romney won Maine's Republican Party straw poll last weekend, but dropped out of the race Thursday.44

About 73% of Maine’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, well above the national rate of 64 percent. As one of the next stops on the presidential primary trail, Maine's median age of 41.1 years is the highest in the nation, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.

Selected Characteristics Maine U.S. Median age 41.1 36.4 Women 51.1% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 95.8% 66.4% Black alone 0.8% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 1.0% 14.8% Median household income $43,439 $48,451 Foreign born 3.2% 12.5% Persons below poverty 12.9% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 25.8% 27.0% Median home value $170,500 $185,20045

17

Maine held its first-ever presidential primary on March 5, 1996, in an attempt to generate an early contest to which candidates would pay attention. But they didn't--at least not much. Clinton had no competition and Bob Dole had clinched the Republican nomination three days earlier in South Carolina. In 2000 Maine got lost in the crush of states voting on Super Tuesday, March 7, though the results were close. George W. Bush beat John McCain 51%-44%, the one Bush victory in New England, and Al Gore beat Bill Bradley 54%-41%.

Maine abolished its presidential primary for 2004.46

March 5, 1996 Maine Republican Primary Dole (R) (46%) Buchanan (R) (24%) Forbes (R) (15%) Alexander (R) (7%) Other (8%)

March 7, 2000 Maine Republican Primary Bush (R) (51%) McCain (R) (44%) Other (5%)

March 7, 2000 Maine Democratic Primary Gore (D) (54%) Bradley (D) (41%) Uncommitted (4%) February 8, 2004 Maine Democratic Caucuses Kerry (D) (44%) Dean (D) (28%) Kucinich (D) (16%) Edwards (D) (7%) Clark (D) (3%) Other (1%)

18 Endnotes

1 Financial Times, “Candidates look to next stages of marathon,” 7 February 2008. 2 Associated Press Newswires, “Voters in 5 states are next to have their say in presidential nomination contests,” 7 February 2008. 3 Financial Times, “Candidates look to next stages of marathon,” 7 February 2008. 4 Associated Press Newswires, “Voters in 5 states are next to have their say in presidential nomination contests,” 7 February 2008. 5 Associated Press Newswires, “Bush Urges Republicans to Unite in Race,” 8 February 2008. 6 AP, “McCain All but Clinches; Romney Departs,” Feb. 7, 2008. 7 Associated Press Newswires, “Voters in 5 states are next to have their say in presidential nomination contests,” 7 February 2008. 8 Associated Press Newswires, “Voters in 5 states are next to have their say in presidential nomination contests,” 7 February 2008. 9 Associated Press Newswires, “2 leading candidates visit Kansas after GOP race is reordered,” 8 February 2008. 10 The Wichita Eagle (Kansas), “Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Business News,” January 20, 2008. 11 The Wichita Eagle (Kansas), January 20, 2008. 12 Wichita Eagle (KS), “Two GOP rivals, maybe more, to visit this week,” 7 February 2008. 13 Kansas Democratic Party 14 Wichita Eagle (KS), “Two GOP rivals, maybe more, to visit this week,” 7 February 2008. 15 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 16 The Associated Press State & Local Wire, “Thornburgh: Earliest date may not be best for primary,” January 19, 2007. 17 The Associated Press State & Local Wire, “April presidential primary in works for midwestern states,” January 27, 1999. 18 Topeka Capital-Journal (Kansas), “Funding stripped for presidential primary,” March 16, 2007. 19 Wichita Eagle (KS), “Two GOP rivals, maybe more, to visit this week,” 7 February 2008. 20 Associated Press Newswires, “Voters in 5 states are next to have their say in presidential nomination contests,” 7 February 2008. 21 Associated Press Newswires, “Top White House contenders target WA caucuses,” 8 February 2008. 22 Associated Press Newswires, “Voters in 5 states are next to have their say in presidential nomination contests,” 7 February 2008. 23 Associated Press Newswires, “Top White House contenders target WA caucuses,” 8 February 2008. 24 Associated Press Newswires, “Voters in 5 states are next to have their say in presidential nomination contests,” 7 February 2008. 25 Associated Press Newswires, “Top White House contenders target WA caucuses,” 8 February 2008. 26 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 27 Almanac of American Politics, 2008 ed. 28 Associated Press Newswires, “Voters in 5 states are next to have their say in presidential nomination contests,” 7 February 2008. 29 Omaha World-Herald, “Campaign attention turns to Nebraska Obama,” 6 February 2008. 30 Associated Press Newswires, “Voters in 5 states are next to have their say in presidential nomination contests,” 7 February 2008. 31 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 32 Almanac of American Politics, 2008 ed. 33 Associated Press Newswires, “Voters in 5 states are next to have their say in presidential nomination contests,” 7 February 2008. 34 The Baton Rouge Advocate, “Obama's backers hold Capitol rally,” 7 February 2008.

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35 The Baton Rouge Advocate, “La. relishes role in primaries,” 7 February 2008. 36 Associated Press Newswires, “Voters in 5 states are next to have their say in presidential nomination contests,” 7 February 2008. 37 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 38 Almanac of American Politics, 2008 ed. 39 States News Service, “GOVERNOR OF GUAM AND RNC MEMBERS ENDORSE JOHN MCCAIN,” 4 February 2008. 40 Virgin Islands Daily News, “V.I. Democrats to vote on delegates to party's national convention,” January 28th 2008; Virgin Islands Democratic Party, 2008 Delegate Selection Plan. 41 Associated Press Newswires, “Voters in 5 states are next to have their say in presidential nomination contests,” 7 February 2008. 42 Portland Press Herald, “Former president stumps in Portland,” 8 February 2008. 43 Associated Press Newswires, “Voters in 5 states are next to have their say in presidential nomination contests,” 7 February 2008. 44 Portland Press Herald, “Former president stumps in Portland,” 8 February 2008. 45 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 46 Almanac of American Politics, 2008, 2004, 2000 eds.

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