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Feb. 9-10 Primaries & Caucuses

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Feb. 9-10 Primaries & Caucuses Feb. 9-10 Primaries & Caucuses Brainroom Briefing Book Bryan S. Murphy Sr. Political Affairs Specialist Fox News Channel Table of Contents The Democrats – p. 3 The Republicans – p. 4 Kansas Republican Caucuses – p. 5 Washington Caucuses – p. 8 Nebraska Democratic Caucuses – p. 11 Louisiana Primaries – p. 13 Territories – p. 16 Maine Democratic Caucuses – p. 17 Endnotes – p. 19 2 The Democrats The Democratic party is prepared for a marathon nomination battle between Obama and Clinton. The candidates, who face a crushing timetable of campaign fundraisers and forthcoming primaries, immediately switched their focus to Saturday’s contests.1 Obama and Clinton are competing for sizable if somewhat overshadowed delegate prizes this weekend as voters in four scattered states take their turn saying which one should be the Democratic presidential nominee. The two Democrats are competing for 161 delegates Saturday in Washington state, Louisiana, Nebraska and the Virgin Islands, followed by Maine caucuses with 24 delegates Sunday. But they weren't going all out. Obama was the only candidate campaigning in all four states; Clinton planned stops in Washington and Maine, leaving Louisiana and Nebraska to husband Bill and daughter Chelsea. Clinton and Obama both had an eye on the round that follows -- the trio of races Tuesday in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia -- and the New York senator in particular was gearing her campaign toward the high stakes primaries in Ohio and Texas on March 4. Obama has proved a strong performer in the complex logistics of caucuses and a candidate flush with money, two advantages going into the weekend. Clinton enjoyed several notable endorsements in Washington and Maine, and a strong organization.2 Obama, who raised a record $32 million in January, is likely to capitalize in the short term, given his advantage in these states and in the votes next Tuesday in Virginia, Washington DC and Maryland. But Clinton, whose campaign said she would probably be outspent "again" by Obama in a protracted race, is considered the frontrunner in the more delegate-rich states of Ohio and Texas, which vote on March 4. In a sign that she has been outstripped by Obama's fundraising prowess, Clinton spokesman said she had loaned her campaign $5 million late last month.3 3 The Republicans Drama dropped out of the Republican contest when Romney suspended his campaign Thursday, leaving McCain the prohibitive favorite, Huckabee the long-shot and Paul a postscript. Nonetheless, voters in Washington state, Kansas and Louisiana take part in Republican contests Saturday that, absent an improbable insurgency, have become a virtual coronation.4 Romney's decision to suspend his campaign, announced Thursday, marked a remarkable turnaround for McCain, a former Vietnam prisoner-of-war whose campaign some seven months ago was barely viable, out of cash and losing staff. President Bush on Friday rallied his party's conservative wing to unite behind the Republican nominee in the battle for the presidency, but avoided mention of McCain. McCain still has to win over some right-wing members of his party upset by his prior support of a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants and stances on global warming and campaign finance reform that break with the conservative party line. As part of that effort, McCain told the conservative group in a speech Thursday that he cannot succeed without their support, and any differences within the party are eclipsed by his differences with chief Democratic rivals Clinton and Obama.5 Huckabee is still mathematically viable in the race, but he will need a lot of help from Romney's supporters if he doesn't prevail in upcoming contests. Numbers aside, Huckabee also faces a steep challenge. The former Arkansas governor's primary constituency is Christian evangelicals, and he has won only in states where they dominate presidential contests – Iowa, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, West Virginia and Georgia. Privately, some Huckabee aides were eager to see their boss follow Romney's lead. Publicly, Huckabee showed no sign of backing down. "I still believe that this thing is a long way from being settled. And, now that the field is down to two, our chances have substantially improved," he said in New York City. The only other way Huckabee could seize the nomination is if conservative complaints about McCain turn into a full-scale revolt. But that doesn't appear to be happening, if McCain's reception at the Conservative Political Action Conference was any indication. Activists there seemed resigned – if not pleased – at the prospect of McCain's nomination.6 Delegates Available on Feb. 9 Democratic Republican Guam (R-Territorial Conv.) – 6 Kansas (R-Caucuses) – 36 Louisiana 56 20 Nebraska (D-Caucuses) 24 – Northern Marianas (R-Precinct) – – Virgin Island (D-Caucuses) 3 – Washington (D-Caucuses) 78 – Washington (R-Caucuses) – 18 Total 161 80 Delegates Available on Feb. 10 Democratic Republican Maine (D-Caucuses) 24 – Total 24 – 4 Kansas Republican Caucuses Kansas Republican Caucuses – Caucus Times Caucuses start at 10:00am local (11:00 am and 12:00pm ET). One hour allowed for balloting. Caucuses must end by 5:00pm CT; most will actually finish by 1:00pm local (2-3:00pm ET). Results released by party (on web and at media center) as processed; starting at 2:00pm CT (3:00pm ET) . AP latest Poll closing time 6:00pm ET. Kansas Republican Caucuses Delegates Available on Feb. 9: 36 Pledged Delegates: 36 Unpledged Delegates: 3 Of the 36 pledged delegates, 24 are allocated from statewide voting (at-large), and 12 are allocated by congressional district. Each Congressional district will award all 3 delegates to the Presidential candidate receiving the most votes in that CD caucus. The 24 At large delegates awarded winner-take-all to the Presidential candidate receiving the most votes statewide on Feb 9 (provided that the statewide winner also is the leader in at least 2 Congressional districts; if not, then 24 AL delegates are uncommitted). The campaign: McCain planned to speak in Kansas City on Friday, en route to Seattle. Huckabee laid out a full day of activity across Kansas on Friday, in Olathe, Wichita, Topeka and Garden City. Caucuses in Kansas lured presidential hopefuls McCain and Huckabee after Romney's decision to suspend his campaign changed the complexion of the state's Republican contest. 7 Lay of the land: McCain was favored even before Romney's departure, but Huckabee also hoped to do well, on the strength of social conservatives. State party leaders had split endorsements between McCain and Romney.8 On Thursday, Huckabee picked up the endorsement of Kansans for Life's political action committee. The anti-abortion group is the state's largest and is influential among Kansas Republicans. Many conservatives had been supporting Romney and conservatives control the state party's leadership. Yet McCain had the endorsement of a leading Kansas conservative, U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback. "If Huckabee decides this is his big opportunity to rally conservatives around the flag, the Kansas caucus will be the first test of whether he can do it," said state GOP Chairman Kris Kobach, who'd endorsed Romney. Kansas Republicans plan to caucus Saturday at 67 sites. GOP activists were finding it difficult to handicap the state contest with Romney out. Nationally, Romney's announcement meant McCain had a virtual lock on the nomination.9 Louisiana and Washington are the only other states having Republican caucuses or primaries on Feb. 9, and they are distributing their delegates proportionally rather than using a winner-take-all format, Kris Kobach, state Republican Party chairman, said. Kobach said he urged the party over the summer to make it a winner-take-all caucus to draw candidates to the state.10 Republicans expect so many people to show up for their Feb. 9 caucus in Wichita that they've switched the site from the jury room of the Sedgwick County Courthouse to the Exhibition Hall at Century II.11 5 Republicans vow that their caucuses won't suffer the overcrowding, long waits and confusion that plagued Democratic caucus sites Tuesday night.12 37,089 people turned out statewide for Super Tuesday’s Kansas Democratic Presidential caucuses, shattering expectations by Party officials.13 The 6,800 voters in the Wichita area quickly overwhelmed caucus sites that had been set up for a much smaller Democratic turnout. GOP leaders worked on contingency plans Wednesday to make sure their voters don't face the same problems.14 Kansas Voter Registration Statistics January 1, 2008 Democratic 432,309 Libertarian 9,124 Reform 1,413 Republican 742,559 Unaffiliated 447,634 Total 1,633,039 About 64 percent of Kansas’ voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, the same as the national rate. Kansas’ 2007 population of 2.8 million includes a higher percentage of the non-Hispanic white-alone population and a lower percentage of Hispanics and blacks than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics. Selected Characteristics Kansas U.S. Median age 36.0 36.4 Women 50.4% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 81.1% 66.4% Black alone 6.0% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 8.6% 14.8% Median household income $45,478 $48,451 Foreign born 6.3% 12.5% Persons below poverty 12.4% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 28.6% 27.0% Median home value $114,400 $185,20015 State law previously set the first Tuesday in April as the date of the primary, a date universally seen as too late. The state canceled votes planned for 1996, 2000 and 2004, partly because of the cost.16 Kansas has held just two presidential primaries, in 1980 and 1992.
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