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Gao-16-309Sp, Nasa United States Government Accountability Office Report to Congressional Committees March 2016 NASA Assessments of Major Projects GAO-16-309SP March 2016 NASA Assessments of Major Projects Highlights of GAO-16-309SP, a report to congressional committees Why GAO Did This Study What GAO Found This report provides GAO’s annual The cost and schedule performance of the National Aeronautics and Space snapshot of how well NASA is planning Administration’s (NASA) portfolio of major projects has improved over the past 5 and executing its major acquisition years, and most current projects are adhering to their committed cost and projects. In March 2015, GAO found schedule baselines. Over the last 2 years, eight projects in the portfolio that projects continued a general established cost and schedule baselines. As the figure below shows, as the positive trend of limiting cost and average age of the portfolio has decreased, the cost performance of the portfolio schedule growth, maturing has improved, because new projects are less likely to have experienced cost technologies, and stabilizing designs, growth. but that NASA faced several challenges that could affect its ability to Development Cost Performance of NASA’s Major Project Portfolio Has Improved as Average effectively manage its portfolio. Project Age Has Decreased The explanatory statement of the House Committee on Appropriations accompanying the Omnibus Appropriations Act, 2009 included a provision for GAO to prepare project status reports on selected large-scale NASA programs, projects, and activities. This is GAO’s eighth annual assessment of NASA’s major projects. This report describes (1) the cost and schedule performance of NASA’s portfolio of major projects, (2) the maturity of technologies and stability of project designs at key milestones, and (3) NASA’s progress in implementing Note: GAO presents cost and schedule growth both including and excluding JWST because the initiatives to manage acquisition risk magnitude of JWST’s cost growth has historically masked the performance of the rest of the portfolio. and potential challenges for project Although NASA’s overall performance has improved, for 8 out of the last 9 years management and oversight. This at least one major project has experienced significant cost or schedule growth. report also includes assessments of NASA’s 18 major projects, each with a Such growth often occurs as projects prepare to begin system assembly, life-cycle cost of over $250 million. To integration, and test; nine projects will be in that phase of development in 2016, conduct its review, GAO analyzed cost, including the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle and Space Launch System, schedule, technology maturity, design which are human spaceflight programs that have significant development risks. stability, and other data; reviewed NASA has maintained recent improvements in the technology maturity and monthly project status reports; and design stability of its projects. As of 2015, 9 of the 11 major projects that passed interviewed NASA officials. preliminary design review matured all technologies to the level recommended by What GAO Recommends GAO best practices—continuing a positive trend. Projects entering implementation in recent years also appear to rely more heavily on existing GAO is not making recommendations technologies, but this trend could be changing on planned projects. The portfolio in this report, but in prior reports has continued a generally positive trend in improving design stability as measured made recommendations that NASA against best practices and minimizing late design changes. has not yet fully addressed. NASA generally agreed with GAO’s findings. NASA has continued to implement improved project management tools to manage acquisition risks, but these efforts have not always been consistent with View GAO-16-309SP. For more information, best practices in areas such as cost estimating or fully addressed GAO’s prior contact Cristina Chaplain at (202) 512-4841 or recommendations. Further, NASA plans to dissolve its independent program [email protected]. assessment office to help bolster its mission directorate workforce in key areas, however this change could impact project oversight. United States Government Accountability Office Contents Letter 1 Background 3 NASA Cost and Schedule Performance Continues Positive Trend, but Its Largest Projects Face Significant Risks 8 NASA Has Maintained Recent Improvements in Technology Maturity and Design Stability 14 NASA Has Made Progress on Implementing Tools to Reduce Acquisition Risks, but Faces Several Challenges 23 Project Assessments 31 Asteroid Redirect Robotic Mission 33 Commercial Crew Program 35 Europa 39 Exploration Ground Systems 41 Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On 43 Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 45 Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy, and Heat Transport 47 Ionospheric Connection 49 James Webb Space Telescope 51 Mars 2020 53 NASA ISRO – Synthetic Aperture Radar 55 Origins-Spectral Interpretation-Resource Identification-Security- Regolith Explorer 57 Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle 59 Solar Probe Plus 61 Space Launch System 63 Space Network Ground Segment Sustainment 65 Surface Water and Ocean Topography 67 Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite 69 Agency Comments and Our Evaluation 71 Appendix I Objectives, Scope, and Methodology 74 Appendix II Major NASA Projects Reviewed in GAO’s Annual Assessments 81 Appendix III Technology Readiness Levels 84 Page i GAO-16-309SP Assessments of Major NASA Projects Appendix IV Elements of a Sound Business Case 86 Appendix V Comments from NASA 88 Appendix VI GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments 90 Tables Table 1: Development Cost Growth on NASA Major Projects Rebaselined from 2007 through 2015 11 Table 2: Development Cost and Schedule Performance of NASA Major Projects Currently in Development 12 Table 3: Current Projects between Critical Design Review and Systems Integration Review 13 Figures Figure 1: NASA’s Life Cycle for Space Flight Projects 3 Figure 2: Notional Allocation of Funding Reserves for a Project Budgeted at the 70 Percent Confidence Level 5 Figure 3: Major NASA Projects Reviewed in GAO’s 2016 Assessment 7 Figure 4: Development Cost Performance and Average Months Spent in the Development Phase for Major NASA Projects from 2009 through 2016 9 Figure 5: Total Number and Development Cost Growth of NASA Major Projects with Established Cost Baselines from 2009 through 2016 10 Figure 6: Percentage and Number of NASA’s Major Projects Attaining Technology Maturity by Preliminary Design Review from 2010 through 2016 15 Figure 7: Average Number of Critical Technologies Reported by NASA for Major Projects in Development from 2009 through 2016 17 Figure 8: Major Projects by Number of Critical Technologies Reported by NASA from 2009 through 2016 18 Page ii GAO-16-309SP Assessments of Major NASA Projects Figure 9: Average Percentage of Releasable Engineering Drawings for NASA Major Projects at Critical Design Review from 2010 through 2016 20 Figure 10: Average Percentage of Drawing Growth After Critical Design Review for NASA Major Projects from 2010 through 2016 23 Figure 11: Project Operations Costs and Cost Growth as a Percentage of Total Life-Cycle Cost and Cost Growth for Selected Major NASA Projects 30 Figure 12: Illustration of a Sample Project Assessment 32 Figure 13: Major NASA Projects Reviewed in GAO’s Annual Assessments 82 Abbreviations ARRM Asteroid Robotic Redirect Mission ATLAS Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System CCP Commercial Crew Program CNES Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales CTS crew transportation system DCI data collection instrument DHU data handling unit EGS Exploration Ground Systems EM-1 Exploration Mission 1 EM-2 Exploration Mission 2 ESM European Service Module EVM earned value management FUV Far Ultraviolet GFAS Ground Flight Application Software GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences GNC LIDAR guidance, navigation, and control light detection and ranging GRACE-FO Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On GSLV Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle ICESat-2 Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 ICON Ionospheric Connection ICPS interim cryogenic propulsion stage InSight Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport IPAO Independent Program Assessment Office ISRO Indian Space Research Organisation Page iii GAO-16-309SP Assessments of Major NASA Projects ISS International Space Station JCL joint cost and schedule confidence level JWST James Webb Space Telescope KaRIn Ka-band Radar Interferometer KDP key decision point MIGHTI Michelson Interferometer for Global High-Resolution Thermospheric Imaging MSL Mars Science Laboratory NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NISAR NASA ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar NPR NASA Procedural Requirements OLA OSIRIS-REx laser altimeter Orion Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle OSIRIS-REx Origins-Spectral Interpretation-Resource Identification- Security-Regolith Explorer RFU radio frequency unit SCaN Space Communications and Navigation SCCS Spaceport Command and Control System SEIS Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure SEP solar electric propulsion SGSS Space Network Ground System Sustainment SLS Space Launch System SMAP Soil Moisture Active and Passive SPOC Science Processing and Operations Center SPP Solar Probe Plus SWEAP Solar Wind Electrons Alphas and Protons SWOT Surface Water and Ocean Topography TESS Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite TRN terrain relative
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