POLICY BRIEF October 2009 Rebuilding Zimbabwe: JOEL NEGIN School of Public Health Australia’s Role in University of Sydney and Supporting the Transition The Earth Institute Columbia University [email protected] What is the problem? JOLYON FORD What should Australia do to assist Zimbabwe’s re-emergence? In Centre for International Governance and Justice March 2009, Australia became the first major donor country to Australian National University provide assistance to the new power-sharing government in Zimbabwe. [email protected] Given the pervading influence of hardline elements, many doubt the merits and viability of the ‘inclusive government’. Ought Australia continue its support, accepting the risk of buttressing Mugabe and his regime? Or should Australia stand back and maintain pressure for a more acceptable government – at the risk of contributing to the inclusive government’s failure? What should be done? Despite the substantial risks, external assistance now can help sustain momentum for reform, and sustain public belief in a post-Mugabe era. Aid can be managed to avoid reinforcing the position of ZANU-PF elites. Engagement with Zimbabwe can provide lessons for Australia’s development assistance in Africa and elsewhere, including policy lessons on aid engagement during sensitive political transitions. Having affirmed its support for the fragile recovery process in Zimbabwe, Australia should continue its assistance in select areas where it has a comparative advantage, but should be highly innovative within these niche areas. Australia should expand its support to food security among small-scale farmers, with a focus on enabling a transition from food aid to self-sufficiency. A commitment to LOWY INSTITUTE FOR rebuilding Zimbabwe’s human capital through redevelopment of INTERNATIONAL POLICY agricultural extension colleges would presage the country’s re- 31 Bligh Street Sydney NSW 2000 emergence and demonstrate a longer-term commitment beyond the Tel: +61 2 8238 9000 immediate phase. Fax: +61 2 8238 9005 www.lowyinstitute.org The Lowy Institute for International Policy is an independent international policy think tank. Its mandate ranges across all the dimensions of international policy debate in Australia — economic, political and strategic — and it is not limited to a particular geographic region. Its two core tasks are to: • produce distinctive research and fresh policy options for Australia’s international policy and to contribute to the wider international debate. • promote discussion of Australia’s role in the world by providing an accessible and high- quality forum for discussion of Australian international relations through debates, seminars, lectures, dialogues and conferences. Lowy Institute Policy Briefs are designed to address a particular, current policy issue and to suggest solutions. They are deliberately prescriptive, specifically addressing two questions: What is the problem? What should be done? The views expressed in this paper are entirely the authors’ own and not those of the Lowy Institute for International Policy. Rebuilding Zimbabwe The context: Zimbabwe’s ‘transition’ schooling system – once the pride of Africa – 2008-2010 with teachers unpaid and many schools closed. Zimbabwe’s long night is by no means over. The coalition government’s Short Term Nearly a year after the violent and disputed Emergency Recovery Program (STERP) focuses March 2008 elections, and months after the on humanitarian assistance and short-term September signing of a ‘Global Political food security, the education system, and health Agreement’ with the ruling ZANU-PF party, system.2 There are positive signs emerging. the main faction of the Movement for While draconian media and assembly laws Democratic Change (MDC) agreed in February remain in place, the BBC and CNN have to take part in a coalition government in which returned. Macro-economic management its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, became Prime measures have been put in place by the MDC- Minister.1 The state apparatus in Zimbabwe is controlled finance ministry. Hugely currently shared uneasily by reformers and destabilising inflation has been tackled by reactionaries with each of the MDC and abandoning the local currency for the US dollar ZANU-PF having half of the cabinet seats. and South African Rand. Food prices continue Hardline ZANU-PF elements remain in to drop and supplies increase (although for government and control the security services, many Zimbabweans processed staples remain and a quiet but intense power struggle out of reach). The IMF recently noted that as ‘a continues. result of improvements in new economic policies, a nascent recovery appears to be As this new political order beds down – and underway’,3 but concerns do remain over while human rights violations continue and governance of its Reserve Bank. Zimbabwe has remain unaddressed – the challenges faced by sought over US$8 billion for recovery, at least the new government are US$2 billion of it urgently. formidable. Zimbabwe’s economy and its health and education systems had collapsed by early 2009. The economy has shrunk by 40% The dilemma for donors since 1998 and unemployment remains at an estimated 90%. While the autumn harvest was After the new deal was agreed in February, better than expected, the food security situation Australia was the first major donor to re- is dire. Up to three quarters of the population engage, but with Mugabe still in power, most (some seven million people) remain dependent donor assistance remains tentative and on food aid, while millions have left the narrowly focused. There continues to be, as the country. In a country already wracked by HIV International Crisis Group (ICG) pointed out and AIDS, malaria and other diseases including earlier this year, ‘considerable international cholera, Zimbabwe struggles to pay the few scepticism’ about whether the political trained medical professionals that have not left arrangement can succeed overall.4 Australia has the country. There is a huge shortage of basic been careful on a number of occasions to medical goods. The same issues affect the describe the current administration as a ‘so- called’ inclusive government, and that it is Page 3 Rebuilding Zimbabwe ‘under no illusions’ about the fragility of the find a middle road and engage in some aspects arrangement and the serious political of assistance to Zimbabweans, in support of compromise it represents with hardline the momentum for reform but with eyes wide elements of ZANU-PF.5 A commentator open to the evolving, highly compromised warned in April that aid given directly to political situation. There is no utility in government ministries at present ‘feeds only standing by and watching the country fail crocodiles’.6 altogether. Tsvangirai recently told the ICG that ‘anything Indeed, the consequence of failure is dire. As positive that comes from this government will Erik Solheim, Norway’s Minister of be credited to us, and equally the negatives, so International Development, stated in May: we have no choice but to get this inclusive government to deliver. People want the When people who have risked their lives dividend from the inclusive government, and for democracy in Zimbabwe ask us to they will demand it from us, not from ZANU- provide help, we have an obligation to PF.’7 In this context, countries such as Australia do so. If we fail to support those who that have called for Mugabe to step down, that are fighting for change now, Zimbabwe maintain principled objections to the regime, could become a new Somalia. That is a and that support sanctions against the ZANU- chance neither Zimbabwe nor the rest of PF leadership continue to struggle with an the world can take.10 overarching and crucial dilemma: With a targeted, responsible and responsive aid Does one stand back and maintain strategy, the needs and opportunities outweigh pressure for a genuine government rid of the political risks of donor engagement for hardline elements (in so doing making Australia. the failure of the inclusive government almost inevitable) or does one support the partnership government accepting Why does Zimbabwe matter to Australia? the risks?8 For many Australians, much of Africa seems Most donors accept that the cost of inaction broken, and its leaders unable or unwilling to outweighs the risks of supporting the power- help their people:11 why should Australia sharing government. The overwhelming contribute to helping ‘fix’ any of this, and why consensus is that the MDC itself had no real help Zimbabwe in particular? A previous Lowy alternative but to join a coalition with Institute Policy Brief set out a number of Mugabe.9 Similarly, there is a consensus that reasons which provide justification for the present arrangement represents the best increased Australian attention to Africa.12 Based chance yet for Zimbabwe to emerge from the on these and other factors, there are many political, economic and human catastrophes of reasons why Australian assistance to the past decade. As the Australian government Zimbabwe makes for good policy: clearly decided earlier this year, it is possible to Page 4 Rebuilding Zimbabwe Importance of success principled, positive ‘middle power’ and Mugabe won’t last forever. A strong transition constructive engagement with Africa is a viable bringing some economic recovery and the component of that effort. A well-crafted restoration of basic social services would programme of assistance to Zimbabwe now – increase Zimbabweans’ confidence in taking a based on firm clear principles – will contribute natural step forward towards a democratic, to this overall endeavour. African support will post-Mugabe situation. Success by the power- also be vital to Australia’s bid for a temporary sharing government is likely to be perceived as UN Security Council seat.15 16 In these respects, the success of reformists. Without tangible and particularly given its criticism of Mugabe results for ordinary people, both the progress to and early support to the transition, Australia’s date and the chances for change might be lost.