Undernourishment around the world Counting the hungry: trends in the developing world and countries in transition1

en years after the 1996 Rome World Food Summit (WFS), the The World Food Summit and Millennium Development Goal targets Tnumber of undernourished people in the world remains stubbornly high. In 2001–03, FAO The World Food Summit in 1996 established the target of halving the number of estimates there were still 854 million undernourished people by no later than 2015. FAO uses the average of the period undernourished people worldwide: 1990–92 as the baseline for monitoring progress towards this target. 820 million in the developing One of the two targets of the first Millennium Development Goal is to halve, between countries, 25 million in the transition 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. countries and 9 million in the The WFS target is the more ambitious of the two. Indeed, continued population growth industrialized countries.2 means that the proportion of hungry people in the developing countries will need to be Virtually no progress has been cut by much more than half if the target is to be met. If the MDG target is achieved in made towards the WFS target of 2015 by the developing countries as a group, current population projections suggest that halving the number of under- we will still be left with around 585 million undernourished, far more (173 million) than nourished people by 2015. Since the WFS target of 412 million. On the other hand, reaching the WFS target will require a 1990–92, the baseline period for the reduction in the proportion of undernourished in the developing countries to 7 percent, WFS target, the undernourished which is 10 percentage points lower than the current level of 17 percent. population in the developing countries has declined by only 3 million people: from 823 million to 820 million. This contrasts starkly with the reduction of resulted in a reduction in the was slower than over the previous 37 million achieved in the 1970s and proportion of undernourished people two decades, when the prevalence of of 100 million in the 1980s. Moreover, in the developing countries by undernourishment declined by the most recent trends are a cause 3 percentage points – from 9 percent (from 37 percent to for concern – a decline of 20 percent in 1990–92 to 17 percent 28 percent) between 1969–71 26 million between 1990–92 and in 2001–03. This means that and 1979–81 and by a further 1995–97 was followed by an increase progress has continued towards the 8 percentage points (to 20 percent) of 23 million up to 2001–03. first Millennium Development Goal between 1979–81 and 1990–92.3 Because of population growth, the (MDG 1) of halving the percentage of Success in meeting the WFS target very small decrease in the number of undernourished people by 2015. will require a reversal of recent hungry people has nevertheless However, progress over this period trends in the number of hungry

3 4 Undernourished 2001–03 Number of undernourished and the World Food Summit target (millions)

Latin America/ Millions 1990–92* 1995–97 2001–03 WFS target Caribbean 52 900 Asia/Pacific* Near East and 162 North Africa 38 800 700 600 World Sub- Saharan 500 854 Africa Developing world 206 400 820 300 India 212 200 Transition countries 25 100 0 China Industrialized Developing Asia/ Latin America/ Near East and Sub-Saharan Transition 150 countries 9 world Pacific Caribbean North Africa Africa countries

* Excluding China and India Source: FAO * For the transition countries: 1993–95 Source: FAO

8 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 5 people and a sharp acceleration in Proportion of undernourished people and the Millennium the rate of reduction of the proportion Development Goal target of undernourished. Indeed, even if the MDG target were to be reached by Percentage of population 1990–92* 1995–97 2001–03 MDG target 2015, the WFS target would still be 40 far from being met (see box). In order 35 to attain the WFS target in the 30 developing countries, the number of 25 undernourished people must be 20 reduced by 31 million per year 15 between 2001–03 and 2015. 10 5 0 Regional trends in Developing Asia/ Latin America/ Near East and Sub-Saharan Transition world Pacific Caribbean North Africa Africa countries undernourishment4 * For the transition countries: 1993–95 Source: FAO

Global stagnation in hunger reduction masks significant 6 disparities among regions: Asia and Ratio of undernourishment (number and prevalence) in 2001–03 to the Pacific and Latin America and 1990–92 the Caribbean have seen an overall reduction in both the number and Ratio Ratio for number – WFS target Ratio for prevalence – MDG target prevalence of undernourished 2.0 people since the WFS baseline period. Nevertheless, in both 1.5 regions the average rate of 1.0 reduction has fallen short of what would be required to halve the 0.5 undernourished population by 2015. 0.0 Developing Asia/ Latin America/ Near East and Sub-Saharan Transition Furthermore, in the case of Asia and world Pacific Caribbean North Africa Africa countries* the Pacific the number of * For the transition countries the baseline period is 1993–95 rather than 1990–92. Source: FAO undernourished has reverted to an increasing trend over the latter part of the decade, although the prevalence has continued to decline. the share of undernourished people since 1990–92, albeit from a Underlying this reversal are larger in the region’s population saw a relatively low base. Following the absolute numbers in China and India significant decline: from 35 percent significant reduction in the numbers in 2001–03 relative to 1995–97. in 1990–92 to 32 percent in 2001–03, of undernourished achieved during On the other hand, both in the Near after having reached 36 percent in the 1970s, the trend in subsequent East and North Africa and in sub- 1995–97. This is an encouraging decades has been consistently Saharan Africa the number of development, but the task facing the upwards. The decade since the WFS undernourished people has risen region remains daunting: the baseline period constituted no during the 11-year period following the number of undernourished people exception, although the rate of WFS baseline. In sub-Saharan Africa, increased from 169 million to increase slowed in the later years. this represents the continuation of a 206 million while reaching the WFS For the transition countries, the trend that has been apparent over at target will require a reduction to number of undernourished people least the last three decades. 85 million by 2015. has increased slightly, from 23 In sub-Saharan Africa, recent The Near East and North Africa million to 25 million.5 This rise is progress in reducing the prevalence is the only region in which both attributed mainly to higher numbers of undernourishment is noteworthy. the number and proportion of in the Commonwealth of For the first time in several decades, undernourished has risen Independent States (CIS), where the

The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 9 Undernourishment around the world

7 8 ChangesGDP in the in 1990snumber and of prevalenceundernourished of ChangesGDP in the in 1990sproportion and prevalence of undernourished of inundernourishment subregions from 1990–92in 2000 to 2001–03 inundernourishment subregions from 1990–92in 2000 to 2001–03

China Southern Africa Southeast Asia West Africa, excl. Nigeria South America East Africa India The Caribbean The Caribbean Southeast Asia West Africa, excl. Nigeria India Nigeria South America Mexico Nigeria North Africa China Southern Africa South Asia, excl. India Central America North Africa East Asia, excl. China Mexico South Asia, excl. India Near East East Africa Central America Near East East Asia, excl. China Central Africa Central Africa -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

Millions Source: FAO Percentage points Source: FAO

majority of the region’s prevalence of undernourishment, and prevalence of hunger declined, but undernourished people are found. in the cases of Asia and the Pacific the outcome in terms of reducing and Latin America and the Caribbean the number of undernourished was The WFS and MDG targets: progress has been quite significant. small, as a reduction in the first part regional progress and setbacks of the decade (1990–92 to 1995–97) Subregional trends in was subsequently reversed. At the The degree of regional progress undernourishment6 same time, the number of towards the WFS and MDG targets is undernourished increased in the illustrated by Figure 6, which shows Regional trends in undernourishment rest of East Asia (excluding China) the ratio of the number and the since the WFS baseline period and, particularly, in the rest of South prevalence of undernourished, conceal significant differences at the Asia (excluding India). respectively, in 2001–03 to that of subregional level, as illustrated by A significant contribution to 1990–92. A ratio of 0.5 or lower Figures 7 and 8. Within the sub- progress towards the WFS target in implies that the respective target Saharan Africa region, the the Latin American and Caribbean (WFS target for the number and subregions of Southern Africa, East region was made by South America, MDG target for the prevalence) has Africa and West Africa all saw a while the number of hungry people been achieved. A ratio of less than decline in the prevalence of increased in Central America and 1.0 indicates progress towards the undernourishment (although not Mexico. In the Near East and North target while a ratio of more than 1.0 necessarily in the number of Africa, the absolute number of indicates a setback. Only Asia and undernourished); by contrast, undernourished is the smallest of the Pacific and Latin America and Central Africa experienced a all the developing country regions, the Caribbean have made progress dramatic increase in both the but it increased both in North Africa towards the WFS target, but neither number of hungry people and and in the Near East, with the latter region is close to reaching it. The prevalence of undernourishment. also seeing an increase in the remaining regions have all moved In Asia (where China and India are prevalence of hunger. away from the target by varying treated as separate subregions in Globally, most subregions degrees. view of the size of their populations) experienced a reduction in the Prospects for achieving the MDG significant progress in reducing the prevalence of undernourishment. target look more promising. All number of undernourished people However, any significant progress developing country regions except was made in China and the populous towards reducing the global number the Near East and North Africa have subregion of Southeast Asia. of undernourished was concentrated made inroads towards reducing the In India, on the other hand, the in very few, but populous,

10 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 subregions: China, Southeast Asia food security situation in the reducing the absolute numbers: and South America. Democratic Republic of the Congo. South Asia (excluding India), West Apart from the Baltic States, only Africa and India. The World Food Summit target: China, Southeast Asia, South Other subregions with lower levels subregional progress and setbacks America and the Caribbean have of undernourishment that show a moved decisively towards the WFS worrying increase in both prevalence Progress and setbacks in hunger target. The first three, owing to their and numbers of undernourished are reduction in the subregions are large populations, are also the East Asia (excluding China) – mainly shown in Figure 9. For each subregions that have provided the due to a worsening situation in the subregion, the ratio indicating the most substantive contribution Democratic People’s Republic of distance from the WFS target is towards a reduction in the number Korea – the Near East and Central plotted against the prevalence of of undernourished. It is also worth America. undernourishment. A ratio between noting that in all these subregions, Clearly, progress towards the WFS 1.0 and 0.5 implies progress towards except the Caribbean, prevalence of target is concentrated in too few the target whereas one of 0.5 or less undernourishment is lower than the subregions and generally in those indicates the target has been average of the developing countries. with a prevalence of under- achieved or surpassed. A ratio In addition to Central Africa, nourishment below the average for greater than 1.0 indicates setback. also East Africa and Southern Africa the developing countries. Global The two extremes – the Baltic call for priority attention in view progress is largely determined by a States and Central Africa – illustrate of their high prevalence of under- few subregions with large the wide disparity in progress in the nourishment. In both subregions, populations, while too many others fight against hunger. The Baltic the number of hungry people has have seen virtually no progress or States, with the lowest prevalence of continued to increase in spite of a have even experienced setbacks. To undernourishment, have already reduction in the prevalence of accelerate the pace of global hunger reduced the numbers by more than hunger. Substantial acceleration of reduction, it is essential to halt and half; Central Africa, with the highest progress will be needed if the WFS reverse the rising trend in numbers prevalence (56 percent of the target is to be met. The same applies where it occurs and to broaden population), has been moving rapidly to other regions with somewhat success in hunger reduction to other away from the WFS target as a lower levels of undernourishment subregions. This will evidently be result of a dramatically worsening but with limited or no progress in critical in those subregions where the

9 Progress towards the WFS target: ratio of number of undernourished in 2001–03 to 1990–92* and prevalence of undernourishment in 2001–03

Ratio: current number to baseline (2001–03/1990–92*) 2.5 Departing from WFS target

Central Africa 2.0

East Asia, excl. China Setback North Africa Near East 1.5 Mexico Central America Developing East Africa CIS Oceania countries India South Asia, excl. India 1.0 Southern Africa Eastern Europe Nigeria Southeast Asia. West Africa, excl. Nigeria Moving towards WFS target Caribbean South America China 0.5 Baltic States Beyond WFS target Progress 0.0 0102030405060 Prevalence of undernourishment 2001–03 (percent) * For the transition countries: 1993–95 Source: FAO

The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 11 Undernourishment around the world

prevalence of undernourishment is projected to drop by exactly half from target. Sub-Saharan Africa and the most severe. the base rate (in 1990–92) of 20.3 Near East and North Africa, on the percent to 10.1 percent in 2015. contrary, are expected to suffer an Undernourishment in the lead-up If this happens, the MDG hunger increase, reaching higher numbers to 2015 reduction target will be met. The in 2015 than in 1990–92.8 Latin same cannot be said for the WFS America and the Caribbean and Despite painfully slow global commitment, as the number of South Asia, while projected to reach progress in hunger reduction over undernourished people in 2015 is the MDG target, are not on track for the last decade, a positive sign expected to remain in excess of its the WFS target. The recent comes from some of FAO’s latest target by 170 million hungry people. increasing trends in the number of projections, which indicate an A reduced number of under- undernourished people in South acceleration in the future (see table).7 nourished people is not envisaged Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and the The prevalence of hunger in the for all developing regions. Only East Near East and North Africa are likely developing countries as a group is Asia is expected to reach the WFS to be reversed, but, of these three, only South Asia is foreseen to reach the MDG target.

Projected undernourishment in the developing world Food intake and population growth

Number of undernourished people Prevalence of undernourishment Projected progress in hunger (millions) (percentage of population) 1990–92* 2015 WFS target 1990–92* 2015 MDG target reduction mirrors significant Developing countries 823 582 412 20.3 10.1 10.2 increases in average per capita food Sub-Saharan Africa 170 179 85 35.7 21.1 17.9 consumption. Despite the overall Near East and North Africa 24 36 12 7.6 7.0 3.8 gains in food consumption, Latin America and the Caribbean 60 41 30 13.4 6.6 6.7 in several countries the increases South Asia 291 203 146 25.9 12.1 13.0 will not be sufficient to allow for a East Asia** 277 123 139 16.5 5.8 8.3 significant reduction in the number of Notes The base period for projections is 1999–2001 and not 2001–03. Some small countries have also been excluded undernourished people. In particular, from the projections. sub-Saharan Africa will still have an * Data for 1990–92 may differ slightly from numbers reported elsewhere in the report as the projections are average per capita daily calorie based on undernourishment estimates that do not include the latest revisions. intake of 2 420 kilocalories (kcal) ** Includes Southeast Asia. Source: FAO (2 285 kcal when Nigeria is excluded) in 2015 – close to that of South Asia 10 at the turn of the century. Low initial levels of calorie intake, coupled with Trends and projections in per capita food consumption high population growth, will contribute to the slow reductions in the number of undernourished kcal/person/day 1969–71 1979–81 1989–91 1999–2001 2015 3 500 people. Reducing hunger will be 3 000 particularly difficult for countries 2 500 characterized by historically very 2 000 high levels of hunger prevalence, 1 500 very low food consumption (under 1 000 2 200 kcal/person/day in 1999–2001), 500 low economic growth prospects, high 0 population growth rates and a Developing Sub-Saharan Near East and Latin America/ South Asia East and countries Africa North Africa Caribbean Southeast Asia limited agricultural resource base. Thirty-two countries fall into this Source: FAO category – with undernourishment

12 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 11 Different methodologies are used Trends and projections for growth in per capita GDP to estimate poverty and under- nourishment and the figures are not directly comparable. However, Percentage 1980s 1990s 2001–15 a closer look at trends for both 7 indicators in the developing 6 countries reveals that poverty has 5 tended to decline more rapidly than 4 undernourishment. The World Bank 3 and FAO projections for these 2 indicators suggest that this trend 1 will continue. In fact, the differences 0 in calculations notwithstanding, -1 there were 1.5 poor people for every -2 hungry person in 1990–92; by 2015, Developing Sub-Saharan Near East and Latin America/ South Asia East Asia/ the corresponding figures are countries Africa North Africa Caribbean Pacific projected to be 1.2 to one. Source: World Bank. 2006. Global Economic Prospects 2006, Table 1.2. Washington, DC. These past trends and projections suggest that poverty reduction does 12 not benefit proportionately those rates ranging from 29 to 72 percent among the poor who are also of the population and an average Poverty and undernourishment undernourished. Although the prevalence of 42 percent. Their reasons for the slower rate of current population of 580 million is hunger reduction are not clear, an Percentage of population projected to rise to 1.39 billion by important factor may be that hunger 35 2050. Their current average food US$1 poverty itself acts as a barrier to escaping 30 consumption of 2 000 kcal/person/day Undernourishment* poverty (the hunger trap). Past has actually fallen below that of 25 editions of The State of Food 30 years ago. Despite their poor 20 Insecurity in the World as well as historical record, however, several 15 the World Food Summit: five years of these countries could achieve 10 later have emphasized that hunger significant gains by prioritizing the 5 is not only a consequence but also a development of local food 0 cause of poverty, and that it production, as other countries have 1990 2002 2015 compromises the productive done in the past. * For undernourishment, historical data potential of individuals, families and refer to 1990–92 and 2000–02. entire nations. In the 2004 edition of Source: US$1 poverty rates adapted Undernourishment from World Bank. 2006. Global Economic Prospects. this report, an extensive analysis of 2006. Washington, DC. For undernourishment, and poverty see FAO. 2006. World agriculture: towards 2030/2050. the social and economic costs of Interim report. Prospects for food, nutrition, agriculture and major commodity groups, p. 19. Rome. hunger was presented. Growth in per capita incomes will An important policy implication of contribute to hunger alleviation by this relationship would be that, in reducing poverty and increasing per the absence of purposeful action, capita food demand.9 Higher growth Figure 12 presents trends and hunger will compromise efforts to rates in per capita GDP relative to projections for poverty and reduce poverty globally. Income the 1990s are projected for all undernourishment rates, which, growth, while necessary, is not regions and country groups, with the significantly, indicate that the always sufficient for eradicating exception of East Asia, which poverty target of MDG 1 (halving hunger. Specific measures targeted nevertheless remains the region with the proportion of the poor by 2015) directly at ensuring access to food the highest growth rate (over 5.0 will be reached in the baseline are an indispensable component of percent/year in per capita terms). scenario. effective hunger eradication efforts.

The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 13 Undernourishment in the regions Asia and the Pacific

sia and the Pacific region Between 1990–92 and 2001–03, for population growth – only 9 of the accounts for 68 percent of the number of undernourished region’s 17 countries reduced the Athe developing world’s people in the region declined from number of undernourished people. population and 64 percent of its 570 million to 524 million and the To reach the WFS target by 2015, undernourished population. The prevalence of undernourishment progress must be accelerated. prevalence of undernourishment dropped from 20 to 16 percent. Every The decline in the number of – at 16 percent of the total country except the Democratic hungry people in Asia and the Pacific population – is second only to People’s Republic of Korea10 saw a was driven mainly by China, which Africa’s among the developing decline in prevalence, but it was not saw a reduction from 194 million to country regions. sufficient in all cases to compensate 150 million. India has the largest number of undernourished people in 13 the world, 212 million – only marginally below the 215 million Number of undernourished people: Asia and the Pacific estimated for 1990–92. Bangladesh and Pakistan, both with high levels of prevalence, account for 15 percent Millions 1990–92 1995–97 2001–03 250 of the hungry people in the region, with Pakistan showing an increase

200 in both prevalence and in absolute number.

150 Individual country progress towards the WFS target is shown in 100 Figure 15. No country in the region has yet met the target. Two 50 countries, Myanmar and Viet Nam, have reduced the number of 0 undernourished people by more Southeast Asia China East Asia India South Asia (excl. China) (excl. India) than 25 percent. In addition to these, the most significant progress in Source: FAO relative terms has been achieved by China, Thailand and Indonesia. The 14 most serious deterioration in food security has been experienced by Proportion of undernourished people: Asia and the Pacific the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, where the number of undernourished people more than Percentage of population 1990–92 1995–97 2001–03 35 doubled: from 3.6 million to 7.9 million. 30

25 Fighting hunger: determinants of success and setbacks 20

15 In most countries of the region, the majority of the population – and 10 most of the poor and food-insecure 5 – live in rural areas. A vibrant rural 0 economy is therefore a prerequisite Southeast Asia China East Asia India South Asia (excl. China) (excl. India) for reducing undernourishment. Productivity-driven (yield- Source: FAO increasing) growth in agriculture can

14 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 15 Number of undernourished: country progress and setbacks in Asia and the Pacific

Ratio: current number to baseline (2001–03/1990–92) 2.5 Departing from WFS target

Dem. People’s

Rep. of Korea Setback 2.0

1.5 Pakistan Malaysia Bangladesh Nepal Cambodia Republic of Korea India 1.0 Lao People’s Dem. Rep. Moving towards WFS target Indonesia Philippines Sri Lanka Mongolia China Thailand Myanmar Viet Nam 0.5 Beyond WFS target Progress 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Prevalence of undernourishment 2001–03 (percent) Source: FAO

have a strong positive impact on the important as they, and rural and rural off-farm activities sustain rural non-farm economy through labourers, are more likely to spend each other. Such growth can make a boosting demand for locally the additional income on food and powerful contribution towards produced non-agricultural goods basic non-farm products and reducing the numbers of and by keeping food prices low. services deriving from rural areas. undernourished, especially when Increasing the productivity of small- Agricultural growth thus generates initial income inequality is not too scale farmers is especially a virtuous cycle in which agricultural marked and population growth is moderate. China and Viet Nam exemplify this process. From 1990–92 to 2001–03, Food insecurity in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea the number of hungry people in China declined from 194 million to 150 million and the prevalence of The Democratic People’s Republic are not available, making it difficult to undernourishment from 16 percent of Korea has seen a sharp increase assess the extent of the problem. to 12 percent. This was achieved in both the prevalence of under- However, available data on food through strong economic and nourishment and the number production indicate that this variable, agricultural growth – real per capita of hungry people over the period 1990–92 in per capita terms, declined at a rate of GDP increased at an average annual to 2001–03: the prevalence doubled and 2.2 percent per year over this period. rate of 8 percent between 1990 and the absolute number more than doubled In 2003, the vast majority of the country’s 2003, while per capita agricultural (to almost 8 million people). 23 million people were dependent on GDP grew by 2.5 percent and per The underlying cause appears to cereals received through the public capita food production by 5.4 percent have been negative trends in economic distribution system. per year. At the same time, the growth. Statistics on GDP growth annual population growth rate was only 1 percent.

The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 15 Undernourishment in the regions

16 Undernourishment, GDP per capita and agricultural GDP per worker reduction can accelerate over the (percentage change 1990–92 to 2001–03) next decade. Between 1990–92 and 2001–03, Viet Nam reduced the prevalence of Number of undernourished 100 undernourishment from 31 to 17 percent and the number of Developing world 80 undernourished people from Asia and the Pacific 21 million to 14 million. As in China, 60 accelerated hunger and poverty reduction originated with market- 40 oriented economic and agricultural reforms, which were implemented 20 in the 1980s. An economic reform programme gave farmers control 0 over land, allowed them to increase sales to the market and reduced -20 agricultural taxation. Also as in the case of China, the drivers were strong per capita growth in GDP (5.7 percent/year between 1990 and 2003) and agricultural GDP (2.5 percent/year) as well as GDP per capita Agricultural GDP per worker rapid expansion in food production. A poverty eradication programme Source: FAO and World Bank targeting investments in rural infrastructure also contributed to boosting agricultural production and In fact, the rapid reduction of poor people in rural China fell from hunger reduction. Viet Nam remains hunger and poverty in China started about 490 million in 1979 to about a low-income country, and keeping much earlier, originating with 90 million in 2002 in terms of the up the momentum in reducing two major agricultural reforms World Bank’s US$1-a-day poverty hunger presents a formidable in 1978, when families were line.13 The number of under- challenge. permitted to lease land from the nourished people was reduced from Cambodia and India saw collectives and state procurement 387 million in 1969–71 to the current virtually no change in the total prices for foodgrains, oilcrops and figure of 150 million. number of undernourished people hogs were raised.11 Agricultural The rate of hunger reduction in despite strong growth in per capita output and incomes rose China slowed down during the income of 4 percent per year dramatically in response, with second half of the 1990s.14 This, at from 1993 to 2003 in Cambodia rural per capita income increasing least in part, is attributable to the and 3.9 percent per year from 1990 by 90 percent between 1980 and weak economic performance of to 2003 in India. However, the good 1985. From 1985 onwards, rural the relatively isolated and overall economic performance non-farm enterprises also began to disadvantaged rural areas where the was spread unevenly among sectors expand rapidly. By 2000 they had majority of the remaining and was not underpinned by strong absorbed about a quarter of the undernourished people are located. agricultural growth; per capita rural labour force and were The bulk of agricultural output agricultural GDP increased at an contributing about 30 percent to comes from about 200 million very annual rate of only 0.7 percent national GDP, while farm small (0.65 ha or less) farms.15 between 1993 and 2003 in Cambodia households were deriving almost Recent steps by the Government of and by 0.9 percent from 1990 to 2003 50 percent of their incomes from China to revitalize rural areas holds in India.16 non-farm sources.12 The number of out the promise that hunger

16 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 Latin America and the Caribbean

atin America and the Caribbean is home to some The World Food Summit target reached in Peru L6 percent of the developing world’s undernourished people and to 11 percent of its total population. Food insecurity deteriorated in Peru market upheaval in the late 1990s. At 10 percent of the region’s during the 1970s and, especially, 1980s. A key factor behind the success was population, the prevalence of under- The prevalence of undernourishment strong agricultural growth. Peru nourishment is the second lowest doubled from 21 percent in 1969–71 to introduced reforms in the agriculture among the developing regions. 42 percent in 1990–92. In the 1990s, the sector, including legislation on land With a reduction in the number of trend was finally reversed. Between transactions and entitlements, which led undernourished people from 1990–92 and 2001–03, the number of to improvements in access to credit. 59 million in 1990–92 to 52 million in undernourished fell from 9.3 million to Agricultural value added per worker 2001–03, the region is making 3.3 million people and the prevalence of increased by 4 percent annually between progress towards the WFS target, undernourishment from 42 to 12 percent 1990–92 and 2001–03. although the pace needs to be of the population. Nevertheless, significant levels of accelerated. Progress is uneven The improved food security can be undernourishment and poverty remain. and mostly concentrated in the attributed, inter alia, to the reduction The challenge for the future is to subregions of South America and of inflation. Between 1990–92 and maintain the pace of improvements in the Caribbean. Central America, on 2001–03, real per capita GDP grew poverty and hunger reduction and the other hand, has witnessed an by 2.1 percent per year, despite the broaden the gains to poorer regions of upward trend in both numbers and setback caused by world financial the country. prevalence. In Mexico,17 prevalence remained unchanged at a relatively low level while the number of undernourished people increased. the number of undernourished also been recorded for most Central Figure 19 reveals the wide people by around 25 percent. Brazil American countries, especially divergence in country progress and Suriname have shown similar Guatemala and Panama. Haiti saw a towards the WFS target. A few progress. Most countries in South reduction in the number of under- countries – Cuba, Guyana and Peru America have advanced towards the nourished people but, at 47 percent – have already met the target while target, but a significant increase in of the population, the prevalence of Chile and Uruguay are very close. hunger was recorded in the Bolivarian undernourishment remains by far Ecuador and Jamaica have reduced Republic of Venezuela. Setbacks have the highest in the region.

17 18 Number of undernourished people: Proportion of undernourished people: Latin America and the Caribbean Latin America and the Caribbean

Millions 1990–92 1995–97 2001–03 Percentage of population 1990–92 1995–97 2001–03 45 35 40 30 35 25 30 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Mexico Central America The Caribbean South America Mexico Central America The Caribbean South America

Source: FAO Source: FAO

The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 17 Undernourishment in the regions

19 Number of undernourished: country progress and setbacks in Latin America and the Caribbean

Ratio: current number to baseline (2001–03/1990–92) 2.5 Departing from WFS target Setback 2.0 Venezuela Guatemala (Bolivarian Rep. of)

Panama 1.5 Argentina Honduras Nicaragua Mexico Dominican Rep. Paraguay El Salvador Bolivia 1.0 Costa Rica Colombia Moving towards WFS target Brazil Trinidad and Tobago Ecuador Suriname Haiti Jamaica Uruguay Chile 0.5 Beyond WFS target Guyana Peru Cuba Progress 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Prevalence of undernourishment 2001–03 (percent) Source: FAO

Fighting hunger: determinants of Progress in Brazil progress and setbacks

Overall, per capita dietary energy Between 1990–92 and 2001–03, the In 2003, the government launched the supplies are higher in the region number of hungry people in Brazil Zero-Hunger Programme (Programa than in both Asia and the Pacific and decreased from 18.5 million to Fome Zero) with the aim of rapidly sub-Saharan Africa, and per capita 14.4 million and the prevalence from improving food security for 44 million GDP is the highest among 12 to 8 percent of the population. With an people. Its main components set out to developing country regions. A key average energy intake of 3 060 kcal per improve incomes, increase basic food factor underlying food insecurity in day (in 2001–03), Brazil has adequate supplies, enhance access to food and the region is high income inequality, food supplies to feed its population, but urgently alleviate hunger and which reflects unequal access to access to food is hampered by highly malnutrition through targeted productive assets.18 Inequality skewed distribution of income and land. interventions. causes an uneven distribution of the In the early 1990s, Brazil experienced A key social programme, launched in fruits of economic growth and acts recession and a debt crisis. Major policy October 2003, is the Bolsa Família as a brake on poverty reduction. changes were introduced in an effort to Programme, which provides conditional The region is more urbanized than stabilize the macroeconomic situation; income transfers to poor families. other developing country regions, these were accompanied by increased Conditionalities include school but in many countries the share of government expenditures on social attendance and health visits. The the rural population is still high. programmes. Social indicators improved government plans, during 2006, to reach Furthermore, in most countries the as a consequence, but the country still all eligible families – an estimated incidence of extreme poverty and faces pervasive poverty and food insecurity 11.2 million people. food insecurity is higher in rural among the lowest income groups. areas than in urban ones. Rural and agricultural development has a

18 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 20 Undernourishment, GDP per capita and agricultural GDP per worker Worsening food insecurity in (percentage change 1990–92 to 2001–03) Guatemala

Number of undernourished Between 1990–92 and 2001–03, the 100 number of undernourished people in Developing world 80 Guatemala doubled to 2.8 million, and the Latin America and the prevalence of hunger increased from 16 60 Caribbean to 23 percent of the population. Thirty-one percent of the population live in extreme 40 poverty, almost 80 percent of whom live in rural areas.1 Most of the rural poor are 20 indigenous and depend on subsistence farming or agricultural work. 0 A longstanding constraint is unequal access to productive resources. An -20 estimated 2 percent of the population own 72 percent of agricultural land while smallholdings of less than 7 ha in size (87 percent of all farms) control only 15 percent.2 The productivity of small farmers is further constrained by poor

GDP per capita Agricultural GDP per worker infrastructure and low levels of education and social expenditure in rural areas. Source: FAO and World Bank Social expenditures are among the lowest in the region, although they have increased since 1990.3 major role to play in alleviating earnings and the livelihoods of Food insecurity has also been hunger and extreme poverty, individuals who depend on aggravated by natural disasters. The especially among small-scale agriculture and related activities are effects of El Niño were followed by producers and indigenous vulnerable to international price hurricane Mitch in 1998, drought in communities. Ensuring access by fluctuations. For instance, the 2001 and hurricane Stan in October the poor to productive resources – dramatic decline in coffee prices in 2005. The latter caused losses land, capital, technology and recent years had severe negative corresponding to 3.4 percent of GNP.4 education – is of particular repercussions on food security in Coffee production in 2000 accounted importance. Central American countries. for 18 percent of agricultural GDP, The food economy is characterized In several countries in the region, 4 percent of total GDP, 19 percent of by deep structural changes – the susceptibility to natural shocks export revenues and 30 percent of rural diffusion of new forms of food retail, intensifies the vulnerability of the employment. The decline in including supermarkets and poorest sections of the population. international coffee prices from the late hypermarkets, and the consolidation Examples over the last decade 1990s seriously affected profitability for of the food industry. Ensuring that include the El Niño phenomenon, both small producers, who predominate smallholders and poorer farmers which caused droughts and flooding numerically, and large and medium-size are not marginalized is a challenge in the Caribbean, Central America farms, which account for 80 percent of to be faced. and the Andean countries in 1997 total production. The reduced demand In many countries, export and 1998, and hurricanes Georges for farm labour led to employment earnings are critical for ensuring and Mitch, which destroyed lives, losses equivalent to 78 000 full-time staple food imports. For countries crops and infrastructure in many jobs and declines in rural wages.5 with a high degree of export Caribbean and Central American Notes: Please see page 40. commodity concentration, export countries in 1998.

The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 19 Undernourishment in the regions Near East and North Africa

21 ith 9 percent of the population undernourished, Number of undernourished people: Near East and North Africa Wthe Near East and North Africa is the region with the lowest Millions 1990–92 1995–97 2001–03 prevalence of undernourishment 35 among the developing regions. Relatively higher incomes and/or a 30 tradition of food support and subsidy 25 policies in some countries account 20 for a large part of the difference. The 15 region is home to around 5 percent 10 of the undernourished and around 5 8 percent of the population of the 0 developing world. Near East North Africa Although relatively low, food Source: FAO insecurity in the region is persistent and actually rising both in absolute numbers and in prevalence. Between 1990–92 and 2001–03, the and Iraq (for which available data Yemen has very high levels of food prevalence of hunger increased from are very tenuous), the number of insecurity; more than one-third of the 8 to 9 percent, which, combined with undernourished still increased from population are chronically high population growth rates, led to 15 million to 20 million and undernourished. In the remaining an increase in the number of under- prevalence from 5 to 6 percent. countries, except Jordan and Morocco, nourished people from 25 million to Among the countries in the region the prevalence of undernourishment 38 million. Excluding Afghanistan (excluding Afghanistan and Iraq), only lies below 5 percent.

Worsening food insecurity in Yemen

In Yemen, the number of hungry people increased from Rural development is critical for improving food security. The 4.2 million in 1990–92 to 7.1 million in 2001–03, and the agriculture sector is faced with low productivity due to the lack of proportion of undernourished people in the population from 34 to investment, inadequate water supply and scarce arable land. 37 percent. The country falls among the low-income grouping and Rapid depletion of groundwater resources may be the most is highly dependent on food imports. The average daily energy serious problem facing the country as a whole and the supply of 2 020 kcal per person (2001–03) has decreased slightly, agriculture sector in particular. About 42 percent of the cropped from 2 040 kcal, in the decade since 1990–92. Yemen’s population land is irrigated and over 75 percent of irrigated land uses growth is among the highest in the world, exerting considerable groundwater. Ensuring sustainable use of scarce water resources pressure on poverty and food insecurity levels in the country and is crucial for the development of rural areas. on its natural resource base. Generally, social indicators have A further contributing factor often referred to regarding improved since 1990 but still remain poor; Yemen ranked 151 out Yemen is the production and use of the stimulant leaf qat, which of 177 countries in the 2005 UNDP Human Development Index. competes with food production for resources, including water, About three-quarters of the population and more than and household food expenditures. The government has begun a 80 percent of the poor live in rural areas, and agriculture campaign against chewing the leaf, and farmers are being employs close to 50 percent of the labour force. Agricultural encouraged to switch to high-value export crops in an effort to production has been unable to keep pace with the rapidly growing improve water-use efficiency. population, and dependence on agricultural imports has increased significantly.

20 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 22 level. Egypt and the Syrian Arab Proportion of undernourished people: Near East and North Africa Republic achieved small reductions in the number of hungry people and a somewhat more significant Percentage of population 1990–92 1995–97 2001–03 reduction in the prevalence, which in 14 both countries is below 5 percent. 12 The remaining countries (especially 10 Jordan and Yemen) experienced 8 increases in numbers. 6 Fighting hunger: 4 determinants of progress and 2 setbacks 0 Near East North Africa The region relies heavily on food Source: FAO imports, and foreign exchange earnings constitute a major determinant of food security. Progress of individual countries level of undernourishment at the Fluctuations in oil prices – the key towards the WFS target is shown in WFS baseline period (1990–92) source of export earnings – Figure 23. Only Kuwait has reached following the Iraqi occupation and influence directly the economies of the target, but the apparently the first Gulf war. The United Arab the exporting countries and impressive record in hunger Emirates has significantly reduced indirectly the non-oil-exporting reduction must be seen in the the number of undernourished while countries, especially through flows context of the exceptionally high bringing the prevalence to a very low of remittances from intraregional

23 NumberGDP in the of 1990sundernourished: and prevalence country of undernourishment progress and setbacks in 2000 in Near East and North Africa

Ratio: current number to baseline (2001–03/1990–92) 3.5 Departing from WFS target

3.0 Jordan Setback

2.5

Turkey 2.0 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Yemen Lebanon 1.5 Iran (Islamic Rep. of) Saudi Arabia Morocco Tunisia Algeria 1.0 Egypt Syrian Arab Rep. Moving towards WFS target

United Arab Emirates 0.5 Beyond WFS target Kuwait Progress

0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Prevalence of undernourishment 2001–03 (percent) Source: FAO

The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 21 Undernourishment in the regions

labour migration. Hence, the decline Rising undernourishment in Jordan in oil prices during the 1990s had a negative impact on food security in the region, while their present Between 1990–92 and 2001–03, the steady economic growth. Despite a large rebound since 2002 is a powerful number of hungry people increased from external debt, the government has driving economic force. 100 000 to 400 000 and the prevalence of succeeded in mobilizing public The majority of the poor in the undernourishment from 4 percent to expenditures towards social activities region – about 70 percent – live in 7 percent of the population. Limited such as health and education. However, rural areas, while the rural share of resources, especially water, make Jordan unemployment is still high and poverty the population is 43 percent.19 For highly dependant on food imports. remains despite progress in reducing it. the rural communities, agriculture Agriculture accounts for only 3 percent of While fewer than 2 percent of the remains the main source of GDP and employs only 10 percent of the population are below the US$1-a-day employment and income and labour force. World Bank international poverty line, represents the engine of the rural The Jordanian economy is highly 7 percent live on less than US$2 a day. economy. The performance of the influenced by external factors, and its With the labour force growing at sector is subject to volatile climatic performance has closely followed the 4 percent per year, the lack of job conditions, especially rainfall. With fluctuations in oil prices over the past opportunities is currently considered the exception of Egypt, where most two decades as well as the conflicts in the major threat to food security. In the agricultural land is irrigated, the region. After a long period of longer run, serious water scarcity could drought often results in severe economic decline starting in the mid- constrain the country’s growth and production shortfalls, exerting heavy 1980s, Jordan is again experiencing development prospects. pressure on farm incomes and food import bills. Increasing scarcity of water in the region limits the scope 24 for agricultural expansion and Undernourishment, GDP per capita and agricultural GDP per worker places the livelihoods of agricultural (percentage change 1990-92 to 2001-03) and rural people under heavy stress. Improvements in water-use efficiency and management Number of undernourished 100 practices are critical elements for improving the performance of Developing world 80 agriculture and the rural economies. Near East and A significant challenge for the 60 North Africa region is that of meeting the growing food requirements arising from 40 high population growth. Food imports are crucial for food security 20 in this context, and represent a means of saving scarce water. 0 However, the region has not yet been successful in developing -20 export-oriented industries that could reduce its dependency on oil exports. A further challenge for several countries is that of ensuring levels of economic growth sufficient to absorb the rapid expansion in the GDP per capita Agricultural GDP per worker labour force.

Source: FAO and World Bank

22 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 Sub-Saharan Africa

25 ub-Saharan Africa accounts for 13 percent of the Number of undernourished people: Sub-Saharan Africa Spopulation and 25 percent of the undernourished people in the Millions 1990–92 1995–97 2001–03 developing world. It is the 100 developing region with the highest 90 proportion – one-third – of people suffering from chronic hunger. In 80 14 countries in the region, 35 percent 70 or more of the population were 60 chronically undernourished in 50 2001–03. 40 Hunger in sub-Saharan Africa is 30 as persistent as it is widespread. Between 1990–92 and 2001–03, the 20 number of undernourished people 10 0 increased from 169 million to Central Africa East Africa Southern Africa Nigeria West Africa 206 million, and only 15 of the (excl. Nigeria) Source: FAO 39 countries for which data are reported reduced the number of undernourished. At an annual rate 26 of about 2.5 percent, the region’s population has been rising more Proportion of undernourished people: Sub-Saharan Africa quickly than the number of hungry people, resulting in a reduction in Percentage of population 1990–92 1995–97 2001–03 the prevalence of undernourishment 60 from 35 to 32 percent: it declined in 29 countries and increased in ten. 50 Efforts to reduce hunger in the region have been hampered by 40 natural and human-induced disasters, including conflicts 30 occurring during the 1990s and the spread of HIV/AIDS. Indeed, the 20 increase in the number of undernourished people since the 10 WFS baseline period was driven 0 mainly by five war-torn countries: Central Africa East Africa Southern Africa Nigeria West Africa Burundi, the Democratic Republic of (excl. Nigeria) Source: FAO the Congo, Eritrea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. These countries combined account for 29 million of the region’s total increase of of the population. The evident progress towards the WFS target. In 37 million. Particularly dramatic is conclusion is that conflict is a major addition to Ghana, which has already the worsening of food insecurity in reason for lack of progress towards reached the target, only Gabon the Democratic Republic of the the WFS target in sub-Saharan reduced the number of under- Congo, where the number of under- Africa. nourished by 25 percent or more nourished people tripled, from The persistence of hunger in the (and is thus halfway towards the 12 million to 36 million, and the region is underlined by Figure 27, target). Other countries that reduced prevalence rose from 31 to 72 percent which shows individual country the number of undernourished are:

The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 23 Undernourishment in the regions

27 Number of undernourished: country progress and setbacks in sub-Saharan Africa

Ratio: current number to baseline (2001–03/1990–92) 3.5 Departing from WFS target

Dem. Rep. of the Congo

3.0 Setback

2.5

Liberia Cameroon 2.0 Togo Gambia Swaziland Botswana United Rep. Burundi Côte d’Ivoire Madagascar of Tanzania 1.5 Sudan Nigeria Senegal Mali Zambia Zimbabwe Burkina Faso Niger Sierra Leone Somalia Mauritius Uganda Rwanda Central African Rep. 1.0 Benin Kenya Angola Moving towards WFS target Lesotho Namibia Chad Mozambique Guinea Gabon Mauritania Congo 0.5 Ghana Malawi Beyond WFS target Progress 0.0 0 1020304050607080 Prevalence of undernourishment 2001–03 (percent) Source: FAO

Angola, Benin, Chad, Congo, 61 to 46 percent. In relative terms, declined by 900 000 (or by Ethiopia, Guinea, Lesotho, Malawi, Ghana’s performance was even 10 percent) and the prevalence of Mauritania, Mozambique and more impressive. The number of undernourishment from 66 to Namibia. Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire undernourished people was reduced 45 percent. Although the saw only a marginal reduction in the from 5.8 million to 2.4 million correlatives of success varied numbers, while the prevalence (59 percent) and the prevalence of among highly successful countries, declined. undernourishment from 37 to they seem to have combined good 12 percent. In Mozambique, the economic growth performances with Fighting hunger: number of undernourished people a significant expansion of per capita determinants of progress and setbacks

Among the countries that stand out Economic and agricultural performance in Ethiopia, Ghana and as having achieved a significant Mozambique reduction in the number of under- nourished are Ethiopia, Ghana and Average annual per capita growth rate, 1990–2003 Mozambique. In Ethiopia, the GDP Agricultural GDP Food production number of undernourished people (percentage) Ethiopia* 2.0 –1.0 2.3 declined by 6 million (17 percent), Ghana 1.8 1.1 3.3 from 38 million to 32 million, Mozambique 4.5 2.8 1.6 20 between 1993–95 and 2001–03, * For Ethiopia, growth rates shown are for the period 1993–2003. Source: FAO and World Bank with the prevalence falling from

24 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 28 agricultural or, especially, food Undernourishment, GDP per capita and agricultural GDP per worker production. The performance of the (percentage change 1990–92 to 2001–03) three countries is summarized in the table. Number of undernourished Growth in food production is 100 indeed key to hunger reduction in Developing world sub-Saharan Africa. Productivity- 80 driven increases in food production Sub–Saharan Africa have been shown to have a strong 60 positive impact on the rural economy, leading to increased food 40 availability and a reduction of food prices in local markets. At the same 20 time, the enhanced incomes of smallholders – the main producers 0 of staples – provide a stimulus to rural economic activity by generating -20 increased demand for the products of other sectors that are either linked to agriculture (e.g. processing and agricultural services) or supply consumption goods to farmers. In 12 countries of the region, a fall in GDP per capita Agricultural GDP per worker the prevalence of undernourishment Source: FAO and World Bank has not been sufficient to translate into a reduction in the number of undernourished people. These countries are spread fairly evenly over through large increases in both from 21 percent to 17 percent the continent. In all but three commercial food imports and food between 1990–92 and 2001–03 was exceptions, a common factor seems to aid. Although overall food supplies insufficient to prevent an increase in be that per capita food production did expand, the increase in rural the number of undernourished either declined or grew only slowly. incomes that could be generated if people from 1.9 million to The cases of Burkina Faso, Uganda the additional supplies originated in 2.1 million. Food production and Zambia are examples. domestic production did not increased in per capita terms at the In Uganda, the number of under- materialize. same average rate as in the more nourished increased from 4.2 million In Zambia, prevalence remained successful Mozambique (1.6 per to 4.6 million between 1990–92 and virtually unchanged (from 48 to cent per year). On the other hand, 2001–03, while the prevalence 47 percent), and the number of per capita growth of GDP and declined from 24 to 19 percent. This undernourished people increased agricultural GDP were more modest, took place against a backdrop of from 4.0 million to 5.1 million. at average annual rates of 1.7 and strong per capita GDP growth, at an Overall economic and agricultural 1.1 percent, respectively. Food average annual rate of 3.8 percent, performance was mixed. Indeed, per imports per capita also increased and a modest average growth rate of capita GDP declined at an annual slightly. As a result, average 1 percent in per capita agricultural rate of 0.9 percent, while per capita dietary energy consumption GDP. Average dietary energy agricultural GDP grew by 1.0 percent increased slightly from 2 350 to consumption also increased from per year. Per capita food production, 2 460 kcal/person/day during 2 270 to 2 380 kcal/person/day, in on the other hand, declined at an this period. This was sufficient spite of decreasing per capita food annual rate of 0.9 percent. to ensure a reduction in the production. The increase in energy In Burkina Faso, the reduction in prevalence, but not in the number, consumption was achieved mainly the prevalence of undernourishment of undernourished people.

The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 25 Undernourishment in the regions Countries in transition

he transition economies are an a whole, there has been a slight Progress in Azerbaijan and extremely diverse group, a fact increase in both the number of Georgia Tthat should be kept in mind hungry people and the prevalence of when analysing hunger trends in the hunger. While some countries region.21 The region is home to an showed progress to varying degrees, Azerbaijan and Georgia – the two estimated 25 million under- others have experienced a sharp countries that have been most nourished people, 21 million of deterioration in their food security successful in reducing hunger from very whom live in the Commonwealth of situation. high levels – emerged from armed Independent States (CIS). Individual country progress conflict in the early 1990s. Their In countries that have recently towards the WFS target is shown in economies started expanding in the acceded to the European Union Figure 31. Of the countries that have second half of that decade following a (EU),22 and in Romania, the level of achieved the target, the most severe contraction in the early years. undernourishment is generally low – successful are Azerbaijan, Georgia Economic growth, in turn, was a major 6 percent at the most. Somewhat and Kyrgyzstan, all of which, starting factor behind the significant reduction higher levels are found in the from a high prevalence of hunger, in the numbers of hungry people – in Balkans (Bosnia and Herzegovina, have cut the number of both countries from about 2.5 million in Bulgaria, Croatia, Serbia and undernourished by at least two- 1993–95 to 0.7–0.8 million in 2001–03. Montenegro, and The former thirds. Armenia, which in 1993–95 Both have made strong progress since Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia). had the highest prevalence of 1993 in implementing economy-wide Within the CIS countries, the range undernourishment (52 percent) in reforms and those specific to the of prevalence of undernourishment the region, has already halved its agriculture sector, including varies widely: from about 3 percent number of hungry people, but at privatization of agricultural land and in Belarus, the Russian Federation 29 percent of the population the titling. and Ukraine to 61 percent in prevalence remains disturbingly Tajikistan, which, along with high. Other countries that have met Armenia and Uzbekistan, is one of the WFS target are Croatia, Estonia, the countries facing the most Lithuania and The former Yugoslav A few countries suffered setbacks, serious food insecurity problems. Republic of Macedonia. Latvia, the in some cases very severe. The Progress towards the WFS target Russian Federation, Slovenia and largest relative increase was in for the countries in transition is Turkmenistan have made strong Kazakhstan, but by far the most measured using 1993–95 as the progress, though they have yet to serious situation is in Tajikistan and baseline period.23 For the region as meet the target. Uzbekistan, which have both seen a

29 30 Number of undernourished people: Proportion of undernourished people: transition countries transition countries

Millions 1993–95 2001–03 Percentage of population 1993–95 2001–03 25 8 7 20 6

15 5 4 10 3 2 5 1 0 0 Commonwealth of Baltic States Eastern Europe Commonwealth of Baltic States Eastern Europe Independent States Independent States Source: FAO Source: FAO

26 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 31 Number of undernourished: country progress and setbacks in the countries in transition

Ratio: current number to baseline (2001–03/1993–95) 4.5 Departing from WFS target

4.0 Uzbekistan Setback 3.5

Romania 3.0 Tajikistan Belarus 2.5 Hungary Serbia and Montenegro Poland 2.0 Czech Republic Republic of Moldova Lithuania

1.5 Slovakia Bosnia and Herzegovina Ukraine Albania 1.0 Bulgaria Slovenia Moving towards WFS target Latvia Turkmenistan Russian Federation 0.5 Macedonia FYR Croatia Estonia Armenia Beyond WFS target Progress Kyrgyzstan Azerbaijan Georgia 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 55 60 65 Prevalence of undernourishment 2001–03 (percent)

Note: Not shown on graphic: Kazakhstan (ratio 7,2, prevalence 8 percent). Source: FAO

serious worsening of food security More generally, food insecurity in Reversing the food security and currently experience very high the region can be traced to factors setbacks requires focused efforts on levels of undernourishment. such as weak economic development pro-poor development strategies, resulting from lack of support policies targeting rural areas especially, Fighting hunger: determinants and infrastructure and the breakdown which are home to more than of progress and setbacks of social safety nets following the 50 percent of the population in dissolution of the pre-1990s countries such as the Republic of Factors influencing progress or economic and political systems in Moldova, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan setbacks in hunger reduction are Eastern Europe and the CIS. and to large shares also in other diverse in the region. In many Between 1990 and 2001, extreme countries where hunger is instances, food insecurity has been a poverty, measured as the share of pervasive. While agriculture is not direct consequence of human- the population living on less than the predominant sector in the region induced disasters – war, conflict and US$1 a day, increased from 0.4 to as a whole, it remains important in political and economic instability with 5.3 percent in the CIS countries and the poorer countries, and ensuing problems of refugees and from 0.2 to 2.0 percent in the agricultural performance will displaced persons. Armenia, transition countries of southeastern determine future progress in Azerbaijan, Georgia, the Republic of Europe.24 However, the CIS average reducing poverty and food insecurity. Moldova, the Russian Federation and masks the existence of countries In the three countries with the many Balkan countries are among with exceptionally high rates of highest levels of undernourishment this group. Natural disasters extreme poverty such as the – Tajikistan, Armenia and (prolonged drought in parts of Republic of Moldova (22 percent), Uzbekistan – agriculture accounts Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and the Uzbekistan (14 percent), Armenia (13 for 24, 23 and 31 percent of GDP, Republic of Moldova) have also played percent), Turkmenistan (10 percent) respectively.26 a role. and Tajikistan (7 percent).25

The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 27