Undernourishment around the world Counting the hungry: trends in the developing world and countries in transition1 en years after the 1996 Rome World Food Summit (WFS), the The World Food Summit and Millennium Development Goal targets Tnumber of undernourished people in the world remains stubbornly high. In 2001–03, FAO The World Food Summit in 1996 established the target of halving the number of estimates there were still 854 million undernourished people by no later than 2015. FAO uses the average of the period undernourished people worldwide: 1990–92 as the baseline for monitoring progress towards this target. 820 million in the developing One of the two targets of the first Millennium Development Goal is to halve, between countries, 25 million in the transition 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. countries and 9 million in the The WFS target is the more ambitious of the two. Indeed, continued population growth industrialized countries.2 means that the proportion of hungry people in the developing countries will need to be Virtually no progress has been cut by much more than half if the target is to be met. If the MDG target is achieved in made towards the WFS target of 2015 by the developing countries as a group, current population projections suggest that halving the number of under- we will still be left with around 585 million undernourished, far more (173 million) than nourished people by 2015. Since the WFS target of 412 million. On the other hand, reaching the WFS target will require a 1990–92, the baseline period for the reduction in the proportion of undernourished in the developing countries to 7 percent, WFS target, the undernourished which is 10 percentage points lower than the current level of 17 percent. population in the developing countries has declined by only 3 million people: from 823 million to 820 million. This contrasts starkly with the reduction of resulted in a reduction in the was slower than over the previous 37 million achieved in the 1970s and proportion of undernourished people two decades, when the prevalence of of 100 million in the 1980s. Moreover, in the developing countries by undernourishment declined by the most recent trends are a cause 3 percentage points – from 9 percent (from 37 percent to for concern – a decline of 20 percent in 1990–92 to 17 percent 28 percent) between 1969–71 26 million between 1990–92 and in 2001–03. This means that and 1979–81 and by a further 1995–97 was followed by an increase progress has continued towards the 8 percentage points (to 20 percent) of 23 million up to 2001–03. first Millennium Development Goal between 1979–81 and 1990–92.3 Because of population growth, the (MDG 1) of halving the percentage of Success in meeting the WFS target very small decrease in the number of undernourished people by 2015. will require a reversal of recent hungry people has nevertheless However, progress over this period trends in the number of hungry 3 4 Undernourished 2001–03 Number of undernourished and the World Food Summit target (millions) Latin America/ Millions 1990–92* 1995–97 2001–03 WFS target Caribbean 52 900 Asia/Pacific* Near East and 162 North Africa 38 800 700 600 World Sub- Saharan 500 854 Africa Developing world 206 400 820 300 India 212 200 Transition countries 25 100 0 China Industrialized Developing Asia/ Latin America/ Near East and Sub-Saharan Transition 150 countries 9 world Pacific Caribbean North Africa Africa countries * Excluding China and India Source: FAO * For the transition countries: 1993–95 Source: FAO 8 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 5 people and a sharp acceleration in Proportion of undernourished people and the Millennium the rate of reduction of the proportion Development Goal target of undernourished. Indeed, even if the MDG target were to be reached by Percentage of population 1990–92* 1995–97 2001–03 MDG target 2015, the WFS target would still be 40 far from being met (see box). In order 35 to attain the WFS target in the 30 developing countries, the number of 25 undernourished people must be 20 reduced by 31 million per year 15 between 2001–03 and 2015. 10 5 0 Regional trends in Developing Asia/ Latin America/ Near East and Sub-Saharan Transition world Pacific Caribbean North Africa Africa countries undernourishment4 * For the transition countries: 1993–95 Source: FAO Global stagnation in hunger reduction masks significant 6 disparities among regions: Asia and Ratio of undernourishment (number and prevalence) in 2001–03 to the Pacific and Latin America and 1990–92 the Caribbean have seen an overall reduction in both the number and Ratio Ratio for number – WFS target Ratio for prevalence – MDG target prevalence of undernourished 2.0 people since the WFS baseline period. Nevertheless, in both 1.5 regions the average rate of 1.0 reduction has fallen short of what would be required to halve the 0.5 undernourished population by 2015. 0.0 Developing Asia/ Latin America/ Near East and Sub-Saharan Transition Furthermore, in the case of Asia and world Pacific Caribbean North Africa Africa countries* the Pacific the number of * For the transition countries the baseline period is 1993–95 rather than 1990–92. Source: FAO undernourished has reverted to an increasing trend over the latter part of the decade, although the prevalence has continued to decline. the share of undernourished people since 1990–92, albeit from a Underlying this reversal are larger in the region’s population saw a relatively low base. Following the absolute numbers in China and India significant decline: from 35 percent significant reduction in the numbers in 2001–03 relative to 1995–97. in 1990–92 to 32 percent in 2001–03, of undernourished achieved during On the other hand, both in the Near after having reached 36 percent in the 1970s, the trend in subsequent East and North Africa and in sub- 1995–97. This is an encouraging decades has been consistently Saharan Africa the number of development, but the task facing the upwards. The decade since the WFS undernourished people has risen region remains daunting: the baseline period constituted no during the 11-year period following the number of undernourished people exception, although the rate of WFS baseline. In sub-Saharan Africa, increased from 169 million to increase slowed in the later years. this represents the continuation of a 206 million while reaching the WFS For the transition countries, the trend that has been apparent over at target will require a reduction to number of undernourished people least the last three decades. 85 million by 2015. has increased slightly, from 23 In sub-Saharan Africa, recent The Near East and North Africa million to 25 million.5 This rise is progress in reducing the prevalence is the only region in which both attributed mainly to higher numbers of undernourishment is noteworthy. the number and proportion of in the Commonwealth of For the first time in several decades, undernourished has risen Independent States (CIS), where the The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 9 Undernourishment around the world 7 8 ChangesGDP in the in 1990snumber and of prevalenceundernourished of ChangesGDP in the in 1990sproportion and prevalence of undernourished of inundernourishment subregions from 1990–92in 2000 to 2001–03 inundernourishment subregions from 1990–92in 2000 to 2001–03 China Southern Africa Southeast Asia West Africa, excl. Nigeria South America East Africa India The Caribbean The Caribbean Southeast Asia West Africa, excl. Nigeria India Nigeria South America Mexico Nigeria North Africa China Southern Africa South Asia, excl. India Central America North Africa East Asia, excl. China Mexico South Asia, excl. India Near East East Africa Central America Near East East Asia, excl. China Central Africa Central Africa -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Millions Source: FAO Percentage points Source: FAO majority of the region’s prevalence of undernourishment, and prevalence of hunger declined, but undernourished people are found. in the cases of Asia and the Pacific the outcome in terms of reducing and Latin America and the Caribbean the number of undernourished was The WFS and MDG targets: progress has been quite significant. small, as a reduction in the first part regional progress and setbacks of the decade (1990–92 to 1995–97) Subregional trends in was subsequently reversed. At the The degree of regional progress undernourishment6 same time, the number of towards the WFS and MDG targets is undernourished increased in the illustrated by Figure 6, which shows Regional trends in undernourishment rest of East Asia (excluding China) the ratio of the number and the since the WFS baseline period and, particularly, in the rest of South prevalence of undernourished, conceal significant differences at the Asia (excluding India). respectively, in 2001–03 to that of subregional level, as illustrated by A significant contribution to 1990–92. A ratio of 0.5 or lower Figures 7 and 8. Within the sub- progress towards the WFS target in implies that the respective target Saharan Africa region, the the Latin American and Caribbean (WFS target for the number and subregions of Southern Africa, East region was made by South America, MDG target for the prevalence) has Africa and West Africa all saw a while the number of hungry people been achieved. A ratio of less than decline in the prevalence of increased in Central America and 1.0 indicates progress towards the undernourishment (although not Mexico. In the Near East and North target while a ratio of more than 1.0 necessarily in the number of Africa, the absolute number of indicates a setback.