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Size Does Matter

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Size Does Matter Construction and Materials MALAYSIA October 5, 2011 Sunway Bhd SWB MK / SWAY.KL Current RM1.87 SHORT TERM (3 MTH) LONG TERM Market Cap Avg Daily Turnover Free Float Target RM2.68 Previous Target NA US$754.5m US$1.40m 40.1% RM2,417m RM4.10m 1,293 m shares Up/downside 43.32% Convicti on Notes from the Field Size does matter The merged Sunway group offers value, not just because of its share price decline but also the potential synergies from more in-house construction of its property projects. We also like the growth prospects for its construction division, which could clinch more ETP/10MP jobs. Sunway offers exposure to Malaysia’s stocks under our coverage. It is rising construction activities. It is driven by ETP and 10MP projects as Sharizan Rosely Malaysia also an integrated property group well as ongoing in-house property T (60) 3 20849864 that enjoys recurring income from development projects. Sunway’s E [email protected] property investments and REITs. We construction unit specialises in begin coverage with an building, civil and infrastructure Company Visit Expert Opinion OUTPERFORM, pegging our target works, both for the public and price to a 20% discount to its RNAV. private sectors. With its bigger size Channel Check Customer Views and balance sheet, the group can Potential synergies hold its own among the big “The merger aims to Post merger, Sunway has a fairly construction boys in the battle for create bigger entity for similar business profile as the bigger large-scale jobs, having been business scale, realize construction boys, with property and shortlisted for the KVMRT project. synergies between the construction being the main earnings Recurring income from group’s construction and contributors and drivers. The group targets merger synergies worth 1-2% property property arms, and of revenue over the next two years, Sunway’s property division, which enhance brand name” coming from (i) better cost contributes 70% of pretax, boasts a management and efficiency, (ii) remaining landbank of 2,160 acres ─ Tan Sri Jeffey Cheah, Chairman increased construction of in-house and has one of the largest portfolios properties by the construction unit, of investment properties in Malaysia, and (iii) sharing of construction which provides it with recurring design technology, leading to fewer income. Klang Valley projects will be design faults and delays. the main contributors to property th development earnings while overseas 5 largest order book projects will provide a platform for Sunway’s RM2.5bn outstanding longer-term growth. The outstanding construction order book is the 5th property GDV of RM14.4bn is good largest among the construction for another 5-8 years. Price Close Relative to FBMKLCI (RHS) 2.7 104 Financial Summary 2.5 99 Dec-10A Dec-11F Dec-12F Dec-13F 2.3 94 Revenue (RMm) 3,134 3,578 3,825 4,106 2.1 89 1.9 84 Net Profit (RMm) 688.1 301.8 347.3 391.0 1.7 79 Core EPS (RM) 0.53 0.23 0.27 0.30 1.515 74 Core EPS Growth 0.0% (56.1%) 15.1% 12.6% Vol Vol m 10 FD Core P/E (x) 3.50 8.25 7.40 6.57 5 DPS (RM) 0.10 0.08 0.09 0.10 Aug-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Dividend Yield 5.56% 4.01% 4.81% 5.21% Source: Bloomberg EV/EBITDA (x) 5.12 7.54 6.13 5.23 P/FCFE (x) 20.17 8.31 NA NA 52-week share price range Net Gearing 54.6% 65.8% 48.2% 39.6% 1.87 P/BV (x) 0.93 0.86 0.70 0.62 1.67 2.49 Recurring ROE 11.2% 11.2% 10.7% % Change In Core EPS Estimates 2.68 CIMB/consensus EPS (x) 1.01 0.92 0.99 0.99 Current Target Consensus EPS (RM) 0.53 0.25 0.27 0.31 SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES. INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA Sunway Bhd October 5, 2011 PEER COMPARISON Research Coverage Bloomberg Code Market Recommendation Mkt Cap US$m Price Target Price Upside Gamuda GAM MK MY OUTPERFORM 1,805 2.80 5.13 83.2% IJM Corp Bhd IJM MK MY OUTPERFORM 1,949 4.54 7.67 68.9% Malaysian Resources Corp MRC MK MY OUTPERFORM 744 1.72 3.21 86.6% Muhibbah Engineering MUHI MK MY TRADING BUY 129 1.01 1.70 68.3% Sunway Bhd SWB MK MY OUTPERFORM 755 1.87 2.68 43.3% WCT Bhd WCT MK MY OUTPERFORM 500 1.99 3.99 100.5% Rolling P/BV (x) Rolling FD Core P/E (x) 4.5 6,000 4.0 5,000 3.5 3.0 4,000 2.5 3,000 2.0 1.5 2,000 1.0 1,000 0.5 0.0 0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Gamuda IJM Corp Bhd Gamuda IJM Corp Bhd Malaysian Resources Corp Muhibbah Engineering Malaysian Resources Corp Muhibbah Engineering Sunw ay Bhd WCT Bhd Sunw ay Bhd WCT Bhd Sector Average: P/BV vs Recurring ROE Sector Average: FD Core P/E vs FD Core EPS Growth 4.0 25% 35 80% 3.5 22% 30 60% 3.0 19% 25 40% 2.5 16% 20 20% 2.0 13% 15 0% 1.5 9% 10 -20% 1.0 6% 0.5 3% 5 -40% 0.0 0% 0 -60% Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Rolling P/BV (x) (lhs) Recurring ROE (rhs) Rolling FD Core P/E (x) (lhs) FD Core EPS Grow th (rhs) Valuation FD Core P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Dec-10A Dec-11F Dec-12F Dec-10A Dec-11F Dec-12F Dec-10A Dec-11F Dec-12F Gamuda 22.33 17.07 10.78 3.06 2.99 2.83 40.01 29.38 14.05 IJM Corp Bhd 22.18 14.88 11.84 2.63 2.51 2.36 15.09 10.90 9.08 Malaysian Resources Corp 29.51 25.78 17.00 3.07 2.74 2.37 21.33 13.08 9.05 Muhibbah Engineering 11.89 5.56 4.96 0.67 0.66 0.64 9.95 6.30 6.29 Sunway Bhd 3.50 8.25 7.40 0.93 0.86 0.70 5.12 7.54 6.13 WCT Bhd 12.37 9.68 8.86 1.48 1.31 1.15 5.57 4.50 4.24 Growth and Returns FD Core EPS Growth Recurring ROE Dividend Yield Dec-10A Dec-11F Dec-12F Dec-10A Dec-11F Dec-12F Dec-10A Dec-11F Dec-12F Gamuda 9.8% 30.8% 58.4% 13.3% 17.7% 26.9% 4.75% 5.47% 5.67% IJM Corp Bhd -6.9% 49.1% 25.7% 11.9% 17.3% 20.5% 3.05% 3.27% 3.35% Malaysian Resources Corp 60.5% 14.5% 51.7% 9.2% 11.2% 15.0% 0.04% 0.30% 0.17% Muhibbah Engineering 95.9% 113.9% 12.1% 6.4% 12.0% 13.1% 3.47% 3.96% 4.48% Sunway Bhd na -57.6% 11.5% 11.2% 11.2% 5.56% 4.01% 4.81% WCT Bhd 25.5% 27.8% 9.1% 13.4% 15.5% 14.8% 5.03% 5.90% 6.22% SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS Calculations are performed using EFA™ Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends 2 Sunway Bhd October 5, 2011 BY THE NUMBERS Share price info P/BV vs Recurring ROE FD Core P/E vs FD Core EPS Growth Share price perf. (%) 1M 3M 12M 1.20 11.22% 20% Relative -10.3 -10.9 -18.0 8.0 10% 1.00 11.21% Absolute -18.0 -24.9 -24.9 0% 0.80 11.20% 6.0 -10% Major shareholders % held -20% 0.60 11.19% 4.0 -30% Tan Sri Jeffrey Cheah 47.7 0.40 11.17% -40% Government of Singapore 2.0 -50% 12.2 0.20 11.16% Investment Corp -60% 0.00 11.15% 0.0 -70% Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Rolling P/BV (x) (lhs) Recurring ROE (rhs) FD Core P/E (x) (lhs) FD Core EPS Grow th (rhs) Profit & Loss (RMm) Dec-10A Dec-11F Dec-12F Dec-13F Revenue 3,134 3,578 3,825 4,106 Cost Of Sales - - - - Gross Profit 3,134 3,578 3,825 4,106 Total Operating Costs (2,542) (3,136) (3,325) (3,546) Operating Profit 592 441 501 561 Operating EBITDA 592 461 520 581 Depreciation And Amortisation - (19) (20) (20) Operating EBIT 592 441 501 561 Net Interest Income (74) (102) (109) (98) Exchange Gains - - - - JV/Associates Profit 199 95 110 106 Other Income - - - - Profit Before Tax (pre-EI) 717 434 502 569 Exceptional Items - - - - FY10 net profit boosted by Pre-tax Profit 717 434 502 569 Taxation 280 (100) (116) (132) RM393m asset revaluation Profit After Tax 997 335 386 437 and deferred tax reversal. Minority Interests (309) (33) (39) (46) Net Profit 688 302 347 391 Recurring Net Profit 688 302 347 391 Cash Flow (RMm) Dec-10A Dec-11F Dec-12F Dec-13F Pre-tax Profit 717 434 502 569 Depreciation And Non-cash Adjustments (125) 27 18 12 Change In Working Capital (199) (432) (71) (78) Tax Paid - (100) (116) (132) Other Operating Cashflow (199) (95) (110) (106) Cashflow From Operations 194 (166) 223 265 Capex - (20) (20) (20) Proceeds From Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries - (281) (349) (347) Acquisition Of Subsidiaries/investments - - - - Other Investing Cashflow - - - - Cash Flow From Investing - (301) (369) (367) Assumed 30% dividend net Debt Raised/(repaid) - 859 (502) (196) payout ratio Equity Raised/(Repaid) - - - - Dividends Paid - 97 116 126 Net Cash Interest (74) (102) (109) (98) Other Financing Cashflow (283) 8 403 217 Cash Flow From Financing (357) 861 (91) 49 Total Cash Generated (163) 394 (237) (53) Change In Net Cash (163) (465) 265 143 Free Cashflow To Equity 119 290 (756) (396) SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS 3 Sunway Bhd October 5, 2011 BY THE NUMBERS Balance Sheet (RMm) Dec-10A Dec-11F Dec-12F Dec-13F Fixed Assets 969 970 970 970 Intangible Assets 330 330 330 330 Other Long Term Assets 2,686 2,967 3,316 3,663 Total Non-current Assets 3,985 4,267 4,616 4,963 Total Cash And Equivalents 881 1,256 1,000 922 Inventories 302 516 552 593 Accounts Receivable 1,143 1,957 2,092 2,246 Other Current Assets 714 1,100 1,163 1,232 Total Current Assets 3,040 4,829 4,807 4,993 Trade Creditors 1,380 2,362 2,526 2,711 Borrowings rose due to Short-term Debt 506 455 409 368 RM910m loan to satisfy cash Other Current Liabilities 68 68 68 68 Total Current Liabilities 1,953 2,885 3,003 3,147 portion of the merger Total Long-term Debt 2,006 2,916 2,460 2,305 Other Liabilities - - - - Deferred Tax 81 81 81 81 Total Non-current Liabilities 2,087 2,997 2,541 2,387 Shareholders' Equity 2,599 2,795 3,421 3,918 Minority Interests 386 419 458 504 Preferred Shareholders Funds Total Equity 2,985 3,213 3,879 4,422 Key Ratios Dec-10A Dec-11F Dec-12F Dec-13F Revenue Growth N/A 14.1% 6.9% 7.3% Operating EBITDA Growth N/A -22.1% 12.9%
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