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APPENDICES Contents Appendix A: Past Trends and Current Status of Agriculture in UK, England and Wales ………………………………………………………………………...................................A1 Topic Paper 1: A Broad Sector Review of Agriculture in England and Wales....................A2 Topic Paper 2: Policy Review..............................................................................................A16 Topic Paper 3: Crop Systems...............................................................................................A33 Topic Paper 4: The Livestock Sector in England and Wales...............................................A48 Topic Paper 5: Farming Systems Development...................................................................A76 Topic Paper 6: Economic Analysis………………………………………………………..A95 Topic Paper 7: Social Issues…………………………………………………………........A107 Topic Paper 8: Environmental Issues…………………………………………..................A118 Appendix B: Demand Estimates for Agricultural Commodities, including bio-fuels. Appraisal of Alternative Farming Systems………………..…………………………………………………………………..B1 Topic Paper 9: Projected Agricultural Prices in the 21st Century…………….…………...B2 Topic Paper 10: Farming Systems Data...............................................................................B7 Topic Paper 11: A Broad Sector Review of Agriculture in England and Wales………….B26 Appendix C: Agricultural Futures and Implications for Environment Report of a Workshop 25th September 2003……..……………………………………………………………...…C1 Ai Agricultural Futures and Implications for Environment: Defra IS0209 Appendix A: Past Trends and Current Status of Agriculture in UK, England and Wales The Topic Papers presented in Appendix A relate to past and current trends in agriculture and provide the context for the main body of the report. Each Paper represents an individual study that should be treated as a stand report; it was not intended that all the reports collated in this appendix should be read as a continuous report. In terms of content, Topic Paper 1 provides a broad overview of the agricultural sector in England and Wales and more specifically regional differences in agricultural land-use. Topic Paper 2 gives a broad review of agricultural policy as it relates to England and Wales. Topic papers 3 and 4 provide a review of the crop and livestock production sector respectively, whilst Topic Paper 5 provides an overview of the recent development of alternative farming systems that have arisen through continued pressures to: reduce costs; diversify; and reduce potential health and environmental risks associated with intensive farming. Following these topics, which generally relate to patterns of land-use and intensity of land- use: three further Topic Papers are used to highlight the socio-economic importance of agriculture. Topic Paper 6 provides an overview of the economic significance of the agricultural industry, while Topic Paper 7 and 8 discuss the social and environmental issues within the agricultural industry respectively. A1 Agricultural Futures and Implications for Environment: Defra IS0209 TOPIC PAPER 1: A BROAD SECTOR REVIEW OF AGRICULTURE IN ENGLAND AND WALES 1 Introduction This paper provides a broad overview of agriculture within the UK, and more specifically regional variances across England and Wales. The paper comprises three main sections. First, a review of the current situation and past trends is given, specifically examining farming systems, with additional detail on the crop and livestock sectors. The latter two topics are covered in more detail in later Paper 3 and 4 respectively. Second, there is a section focusing on likely future developments within agriculture and its farming systems. Influencing factors, their consequences, and the likely outcomes are also identified. Finally, the paper concludes with a section identifying the possible linkages of the different farming systems with the four Future Scenarios. 2 Current position and past trends identified 2.1 Agriculture in the UK In European terms, the UK is a relatively highly urbanised country, with its more accessible rural areas notably experiencing population and employment growth (Ward 2000). Despite this, agriculture is by far the largest UK land use, covering 18.6 million hectares, representing 77% of the total UK land area (Defra, 2005a). This is significantly greater than most other European Union (15) Member States. Forests and woodland account for a further 10%. In England, agricultural land use is 71% and in Wales it is 77% of the total areas respectively (Defra, 2003). Of the UK agricultural land about a quarter, 4.9 m ha, is used for arable production and three quarters for grazing livestock (See Table 1). Since 1945 successive government policies have given the agricultural industry the very clear objective of maximising food production. This has been encouraged through legislation on agricultural land tenure, research and development programmes, price support, grants and subsidies, and exemptions from the usual Town and Country Planning controls for many aspects of agriculture (National Trust, 2000a). This has helped to create an agricultural industry that is relatively well developed and productive, with a small agricultural workforce and a farm structure dominated by larger farms. Average farm size (in terms of land area) (see Table 2) is four times the EU average, with the largest farms concentrated in southern and eastern England (Ward, 2000). Two thirds of holdings are over 100 hectares (Defra, 2002a) Nevertheless, during the last 30 years there have been no major changes in the relative shares of arable land, grassland and rough grazing areas in agricultural use (Defra, 2003). Furthermore, it appears that the rate of change in productivity of UK farms has levelled off in the last decade compared to the increases in the rest of Europe, albeit in some cases about a lower overall average productivity level. Currently, a continuing decline in produce prices, political concern over the cost of agricultural support, and public concerns over the environment, food safety and animal welfare are contributing to a period of change for the agricultural industry (National Trust, 2000b). These issues are considered in other topic papers. A2 Agricultural Futures and Implications for Environment: Defra IS0209 Table 1 Land use (‘000 hectares) and livestock numbers (thousands) average of 1990 2000 2004 % 1979-1981 change 79-81 to 90 Land use Total crops 4,960 5,013 4,665 4,593 -7% Bare fallow 69 64 37 29 -58% All grasses under 5 years 1,933 1,580 1,226 1,246 -36% All grasses over 5 years 5,145 5,263 5,363 5,620 9% Sole right rough grazing 5,093 4,706 4,445 4,326 -15% Set aside - - 567 560 Other including woodland 486 680 780 825 70% Total area on agricultural holdings 17,686 17,307 17,083 17,200 -3% Common rough grazing 1,213 1,236 1,226 1,237 2% Total agricultural land 18,899 18,542 18,308 18,437 -2% Crops Wheat 1,435 2,014 2,086 1,990 39% Barley 2,335 1,518 1,128 1,010 -57% Oats 142 107 109 108 -24% Other cereal crops 20 21 26 24 20% Oilseed rape 97 332 498 413% Sugar beet not for stockfeeding 212 173 154 -27% Hops 6 2 2 -67% Peas for harvesting dry and field beans 78 208 242 210% Linseed - 71 30 - Other crops 198 192 203 3% Potatoes 200 177 166 149 -26% Horticulture 270 208 172 175 -35% Livestock Total cattle and calves 13,384 12,059 11,135 10,603 -21% Total sheep and lambs 31,163 43,799 42,264 35,890 15% Total pigs 7,836 7,449 6,482 5,161 -34% Total fowl 125,712 124,615 154,504 165,324 32% (2003 datum) Source: Defra, 2005a; MAFF, 1992, 1990 A3 Agricultural Futures and Implications for Environment: Defra IS0209 Table 2 UK Agricultural holdings: number and area 1985 1990 1995 2004 Number of holdings 247,400 237,400 239,400 304,800 Total area of holdings (hectares) 17,342 17,087 16,999 17,228 Average size of all holdings (hectares) 70.1 72.0 72.4 56.5 Av. Size of full time holdings (hectares) - - 113.2 1 Source: Defra, 2005a; MAFF, 1991. In terms of the value of output in 2004, UK total agricultural output was £16,907 million, with arable and grazing livestock contributing equal amounts, despite the difference in land area used. The gross value added of UK agriculture at current prices is £7,905 million, equivalent to 0.8% of the UK total (See Table 3; further details are given in Topic Paper 6). Table 3 The value of the output of UK agriculture (£ million) 1977-79 1990 2000 2001 2004 Cereals, other crops, potatoes 1,602 3,403 3,750 3,636 4,281 Horticultural crops 803 1,887 1,785 1,928 1,732 Livestock 2,742 5,007 5,206 4,654 6,027 Livestock products 2,088 3,368 2,810 3,260 3,208 Capital formation in livestock 35 180 374 569 685 Other agricultural activities n/a n/a 657 628 702 Inseparable non-agricultural n/a n/a 439 457 609 activities Gross output 7,445 13,923 15,022 15,126 16,907 Intermediate consumption 7,036 8,487 8,707 9,002 Gross value added 3,438 6,887 6,535 6,418 7,905 Consumption of fixed capital 833 1,776 2,492 2,499 2,549 Net value added 2,605 5111 4,043 3,919 5,356 Other subsidies (less taxes) n/a n/a 232 514 580 Net value added at factor cost n/a 5,101 4,275 4,433 5,843 Compensation of employees * 1,113 1,618 1,987 1,914 2,004 Interest 216 130 633 579 526 Rent 55 n/a 232 230 395 Total income from farming * 1,221 2,306 1,513 1,710 3,014 Productivity index 2000 = 100 Final output per unit of all inputs n/a 91.6 100 95 105 Source: Defra, 2005a, 2002a; MAFF, 1992, 1989. • 1977/79: compensation of employers includes family labour, Net Farm Income. • 2004 figures are given as provisional in Defra 2004. 2.2 Farming systems in England and Wales Farming Systems in England and Wales are classified on the mix of land use and farm enterprises, with the main distinctions drawn between grassland for livestock and arable farming.
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