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Jarir Marketing Company a Favorable Product Mix in High-Income Markets

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Jarir Marketing Company a Favorable Product Mix in High-Income Markets Jarir Marketing Company Initiation of Coverage Equities | Consumer Discretionary | Saudi Arabia Sunday, 13 September 2015 A favorable product mix in high-income markets — BUY Price Target: SAR241.34 Initiate with a BUY/LOW RISK LOW RISK Expected Total Return: 41% Expanding in high-income markets: Jarir Marketing Jarir’s local business is capitalizing on: (1) a relatively Stock Performance & Details Company (Jarir) started its operations by opening a young population (c.80% of population is below the retail store in 1974 and later a wholesale store in age of 40), (2) customers are eager to buy electronics JARIR (SAR) vs. SASEIDX Rebased 1979. Since then, Jarir managed to expand its with the latest technology, (3) rising brand and Stock Details Last price (SAR) 176.17 Volume (RHS) JARIR SASEIDX Rebased business by opening new showrooms and quality awareness among customers, (4) limited 52-W High (SAR) 241.00 introducing new products. Following its success in entertainment facilities in KSA, (5) high literacy rates 300.00 0.50 52-W Low (SAR) 165.00 the local market, Jarir started to expand in the GCC with better educational standards, and (6) high 0.45 6M -ADVT (SARmn) 22.34 250.00 0.40 % Chg: M oM -18.8 region. Jarir is currently operating through 39 retail purchasing power. Our forecasts for Jarir’s revenues 0.35 200.00 -13.9 showrooms (incl. 33 in KSA and six in GCC), along are based on: (1) the expected number of new 0.30 % Chg: YoY with four wholesale showrooms and six directs sales showrooms, (2) the estimated showrooms area, and 150.00 0.25 % Chg: YTD -5.2 0.20 M ubasher Ticker 4190.TDWL 100.00 0.15 offices. Although Jarir aims to double the number of (3) estimated growth of average sales per sq. ft. Bloomberg Ticker JARIR AB showrooms to 72 in the next 5-6 years, we forecast a 50.00 0.10 Initiate with BUY/LOW RISK; PT of SAR241.34 (+41% 0.05 Capital Details 75% achievement to reach 63 showrooms by 2020. 0.00 - No. of Shares (mn) 90.0 total return): We used two different valuation According to Forbes, Jarir was among the top 10 M kt Cap (SARmn) 15,855.3 Jul-15 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jan-15 Jun-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Nov-14 Dec-14 Sep-15 Sep-14 Aug-15 most recognized brand names in the Middle East in models to value Jarir: (1) Discounted cash flow (DCF), May-15 M kt. Cap (USDmn) 4,227.4 2013 and ranked first as the strongest executive resulting in SAR276.40/share and (2) Multiples Free Float (%) 50.7% Foreigners Owned/Limit 8.26%/49.0% management in retail segment in 2012. valuation based on PER and EV/EBITDA, resulting in an average of SAR159.54/share. Applying 70%/30% Favorable demographics with numerous growth weights to both, respectively, we reached a 1-year Company Profile th drivers: The Saudi retail market is ranked as the 16 price target (PT) of SAR241.34, implying a 37% Jarir Marketing Company (Jarir) was established in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in 1979 and was most attractive retail market worldwide. We believe upside (41% total return). later converted to a joint stock company. In 2003, it became a listed company in the Saudi Summary KPIs (SAR mn) 2012a 2013a 2014a 2015e 2016e 2017e capital market. The company has a paid-in capital of SAR900mn. Jarir operates through two business divisions: Retail and Wholesale in Saudi Arabia and in other GCC countries. Total revenues 4,634 5,243 5,699 6,568 7,451 8,356 The company offers a broad portfolio of products, including office and school supplies, EBITDA 584 669 758 846 965 1,089 English and Arabic books, computers and software, mobile phones and accessories, among EBITDA margin 12.6% 12.8% 13.3% 12.9% 13.0% 13.0% others. Net Profit after zakat 570 653 745 838 959 1,086 Net profit margin 12.3% 12.5% 13.1% 12.8% 12.9% 13.0% EPS 6.33 7.26 8.28 9.31 10.65 12.07 DPS 5.00 5.63 6.20 7.45 8.52 9.65 BVPS 11.40 13.03 15.11 16.97 19.10 21.52 PER (x) 16.3x 22.0x 23.4x 18.9x 16.5x 14.6x Menna Attawia PBV (x) 9.0x 12.3x 12.8x 10.4x 9.2x 8.2x Equity Analyst EV/EBITDA (x) 16.1x 21.8x 23.1x 18.8x 16.4x 14.4x [email protected] Dividend Yield 4.9% 3.5% 3.2% 4.2% 4.8% 5.5% Medhat Ali Net Debt (Cash)-to-Equity 10.3% 15.2% 0.7% 1.8% -3.6% -7.9% Senior Equity Analyst Net Debt (Cash)-to-EBITDA 0.18x 0.27x 0.01x 0.03x -0.06x -0.14x [email protected] Source: Company reports, MubasherTrade Research estimates Page 1 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at [email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document. Jarir Marketing Company | Saudi Arabia | Initiation of Coverage Sunday, 13 September 2015 Corporate Profile Jarir Marketing Company (Jarir) was established in Riyadh, Saudi Corporate Structure Arabia in 1979 and was later converted to a joint stock company. In 2003, it became a listed company in the Saudi capital market. The Jarir Marketing Co. Saudi Arabia (Jarir) company has a paid-in capital of SAR900mn. Jarir operates through two business divisions: Retail and Wholesale in Saudi Arabia and in other GCC countries. Jarir Bookstore, the Retail division, currently operates through 33 stores in 15 Saudi cities in addition to six United Book Shop Jarir Trading Co. UAE (100%) (100%) showrooms in other GCC countries, including three in Qatar, one in Kuwait and two in Abu Dhabi (the UAE). The Wholesale division operates through four showrooms and six direct sales offices all United Company Qatar for office Supplies located in Saudi Arabia. The company offers a broad portfolio of (100%) products, including office and school supplies, English and Arabic books, children’s toys and educational aids, arts and crafts materials, Jarir Book Store computers and software, mobile phones and accessories, audio and Kuwait (100%) video instruments, and photography tools. Jarir’s operations also include the purchase of residential and commercial buildings and Jarir Egypt land acquisition to construct units for sale or leasing. Egypt Financial Leasing (100%) Source: Jarir’s investor presentation March 2015 Shareholder Structure Board of Directors Olyan Mutual Chairman Financial Funds, Holding 3.5% Muhammad Al-Agil Co., 2.3% Managing Director & Head of Wholesale Al Agil Abdullah Al-Agil Brothers, 43.4% Free Board Board Board Board Board Board Member Member & Member & Member Member Member Float, COO Nasser CEO Samer M. Fahad Abdullah Nasser 50.7% Abdulrahman Abdulkarim Al Abdullah Saad Al-Agil Abdulaziz Al-Agil Al-Agil khawashki Al-qasim Al-Drees Source: Company reports Source: Company reports Page 2 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at [email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document. Jarir Marketing Company | Saudi Arabia | Initiation of Coverage Sunday, 13 September 2015 Valuation Valuation Models • A terminal weighted average cost of capital Investment Rationale • Entering Egypt leaves a large room for growth: (WACC) of 7.92%. The company now owns two locations in Egypt Using two valuation models, we reached a • Favorable demographics of KSA: Saudi Arabia Multiples – SAR159.54/share: Based on global with a total space area of 5,000 sqm used for weighted-average price target (PT) of is the largest retail market in the GCC with median 2015e PER and EV/EBITDA of 18.2x and the company’s leasing activity. Jarir should SAR241.34/share as follows: numerous drivers for growth. (1) KSA is largest 13.4x, respectively, we reached a 1-year value of benefit from the huge market in Egypt should country in the GCC in terms of population DCF – SAR276.40/share: We discounted FCFF SAR159.54/share (a 13% discount to market). it decide to open new showrooms there. based on the following assumptions: (c.80% below the age 40). (2) High purchasing • Roco, Jarir’s private label, became the market Initiate with a BUY/LOW RISK rating; PT of power in KSA and GCC countries as evidenced leader in office and school supplies. • KSA implied risk-free rate of 2.89%. SAR241.34/share: We assigned the DCF model a by high GDP per capita income levels. (3) • With a diversified supplier base, after-sale 70% weight and the multiples valuation a 30% Customers are eager to buy electronics with • KSA equity risk premium (ERP) of 6.99% service is effected through own authorized weight, reaching a PT of SAR241.34/share. This the latest technology. (4) High literacy rates (consisting of a US market ERP of 5.75% + a service centers or tie-up with product vendors. implies a potential upside of 37% versus recent with better education standards enable the KSA country risk premium of 1.24% based on • Implementation of the e-commerce law, market price in addition to an expected DPS of public to easily adapt to new technologies. (5) the spread between US and KSA 5-year Credit protecting users against fraud, is expecting to SAR7.45 in 2015, implying a yield of 4.2%. This The government focus on investing in Default Spreads levered up by 75% to account increase customer trust in online payment.
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