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Jarir Marketing Co 13 December 2009 Recommendation Neutral Upside 14.6% Target Price SAR149.00 Current Price Jarir Marketing Co. (Jarir) – Initiation of Coverage SAR130.00* Retail Sector | Saudi Arabia Mr. Al Agil’s Wonder Emporium The leading retailer of office and school supplies, and computers in Saudi Arabia… Reuters Code Jarir is the leading retailer and wholesaler of office and school supplies, books, printed materials, 4190.SE computer and IT products in Saudi Arabia, with presence across the GCC region. The company Bloomberg Code JARIR AB operates 26 retail showrooms (22 in Saudi, 2 in Qatar, 1 in Kuwait, and 1 in Abu Dhabi) as well as 5 wholesale showrooms in Saudi Arabia. A major beneficiary of the attractive demographics and EPS FY09e SAR9.26 rising consumer spending in Saudi Arabia and the GCC, Jarir witnessed impressive growth over the Market Cap past six years, with its selling space growing at a CAGR of 11%, total sales at 29% and net SAR5.2 billion income at 20% from 2002 until 2008. Jarir reported sales of SAR2.5 billion and a net income of US$1.4 billion SAR333 million in 2008. We expect 2009 sales will be almost flat, however, as it has been a Enterprise Value challenging year, mainly due to a drop in the average selling prices of laptops, as we explain in SAR5.4 billion the report. Jarir reported sales of SAR1.8 billion and a net profit of SAR271 million in 9M2009. US$1.4 billion Number of Shares Outstanding … is eyeing further growth 40,000,000 Jarir aims to launch 19 new retail showrooms by 2013 to reach a total of 45 retail showrooms by Average Daily Turnover SAR8.1 million 2013, with a plan to launch 4 - 5 retail showrooms per year, 1 being regional, with the others being in Saudi Arabia. In our forecasts, we have assumed Jarir would operate 36 retail showrooms 52-week high/ low SAR137.75/112.25 in Saudi Arabia and 9 regional retail showrooms to reach a total of 45 showrooms by 2013. We expect Jarir’s selling space will grow by a CAGR of 12%, sales at 16% and net income at 15% Shareholders’ Structure over the next 5 years, until 2013. 45%|Al Agil Family Value Drivers 13%|Jarir Investment Company • Leading retailer and wholesaler in an attractive market with further growth potential 4% |Olayan Financial Limited • Solid business model led by a professional and focused management team 16%|Institutional investors • Expansion plan under way with 19 new retail showrooms to be launched by 2013 22%|Others • Strong financial position and free cash flow generation with 2009e FCF yield of 5.8% SAR Jarir TASI 195 • Expected attractive dividend yield of 5.3% for 2009 and an average payout ratio of around 80% 175 155 Major Concerns 135 • The business has relatively low tangible barriers to entry 115 95 • Higher exposure to trends in average selling prices of laptops and IT products in general 75 9 9 9 9 9 -08 -0 0 -0 -0 -0 -09 c g v c • Margins are sensitive to the different categories’ contribution to sales Jul-09 De Jan-09 Feb-09Mar Apr- May Jun-09 Au Sep-09 Oct-09No De We value Jarir at SAR149.00 per share We value Jarir using an average of: a) DCF valuation; b) DDM valuation and c) Comparative-based *Closing as at December13th, 2009 valuation using 2009, 2010 and 2011 P/E multiples. The DCF valuation yielded a fair value of SAR134.00, the DDM valuation yielded a fair value of SAR122.00, while the comparative valuation yielded a fair value of SAR190.00. We arrive at a target price of SAR149.00 per share for Jarir, which implies an upside of 14.6% over the current market price of SAR130.00. We assign Jarir a ‘Neutral’ recommendation. Selected Indicators – Year end Dec. 2007a 2008a 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f Ahmed Khalil Revenues (SAR mil.) 1,741 2,520 2,500 3,092 3,777 4,546 Menatalla Sadek, CFA Revenues Growth (%) 15.7 44.7 -0.8 23.6 22.2 20.3 332 435 476 572 676 795 Gross Profit (SAR mil.) 19.1 17.3 19.1 18.5 17.9 17.5 Gross Profit Margin (%) 291 363 400 475 555 647 EBITDA (SAR mil.) EBITDA Margin (%) 16.7 14.4 16.0 15.4 14.7 14.2 Please see the important disclosures 276 333 370 442 517 604 contained on the last page of the Net Income (SAR mil.) report. EPS Pre-Appropriations (SAR) 6.91 8.32 9.26 11.05 12.94 15.10 18.8 15.6 14.0 11.8 10.0 8.6 P/E (x) 8.5 7.6 6.6 5.9 5.3 4.7 P/B (x) 56.0 28.1 31.0 33.9 34.7 36.0 EBITDA Interest Coverage (x) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Total Debt/Equity (x) 18.5 14.8 13.4 11.3 9.7 8.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.0 6.8 6.9 8.8 10.3 12.1 DPS (SAR) 4.6 5.2 5.3 6.8 8.0 9.3 Dividend yield (%) Source: Jarir consolidated figures, BMG estimates Jarir Table of Contents The Story........................................................................................................................................ 2 Our View......................................................................................................................................... 3 Assumptions and Projections ............................................................................................................ 4 Valuation ........................................................................................................................................ 7 9M2009 Review ............................................................................................................................... 9 Case study: 2009... The Year of the Netbook ....................................................................................10 Appendix I: Financial Statements Summary.......................................................................................11 1 Jarir The Story The leading retailer of office and school supplies, computers and IT products in Saudi Arabia Jarir Marketing Company (Jarir) is the leading retailer and wholesaler of office and school supplies, books, A leading retailer of printed materials, computer and IT products in Saudi Arabia, with presence across the GCC region. The office and school company was founded by the late Abdulrahman Al Agil in 1974 when he opened his first bookstore on supplies, computers Jarir Street in Riyadh. The late 1970s saw the expansion of the company’s retail operations with the and IT products in development of a corporate division to cater for the needs of corporate clients, then a wholesale division Saudi Arabia for the distribution of office and school supplies to resellers in Saudi Arabia. In 2001, Jarir extended its Jarir operates 26 operations beyond Saudi Arabia, opening its first regional showroom in Qatar. Today, Jarir operates a retail showrooms network of 26 retail showrooms (22 in Saudi and 4 in the GCC) as well as 5 wholesale showrooms in and plans to launch Saudi Arabia. Jarir plans to launch 19 new retail showrooms over the coming 4 years to reach a total of 19 new showrooms 45 retail showrooms by 2013. The plan is to launch 4 - 5 retail showrooms per year, 1 being regional, over the coming 4 with the others being in Saudi Arabia. years Jarir’s operations are categorised into two different divisions: a) Jarir Bookstore (Retail division – 89% of sales in 2008): Jarir’s retail division operates 26 showrooms (22 in Saudi, 2 in Qatar, 1 in Kuwait and 1 in Abu Dhabi) catering for walk-in customers and 4 corporate sales offices (3 in Saudi and 1 in Qatar) catering for corporate clients. The retail showrooms are located in prime locations, and have an average area of 30,000 square feet per store (approx. 2,800 sqm.). The showrooms carry more than 200,000 stock keeping units (SKUs) including office and school supplies, computers and IT products, books and printed materials. Jarir is also dynamic and responsive to changes in consumer preferences, especially with regard to the IT products and electronics it offers. A recent example of this was the introduction of the recently popular netbooks, as well as smart phones. Jarir’s operations are supported by a 330,000 square ft. (expandable to 750,000 square ft.) state-of-the art central warehouse and distribution centre, which is located in Riyadh. The Retail sales grew at corporate sales offices, on the other hand, sell mostly office supplies, computers and IT a CAGR of 32% products. Only 6 retail showrooms (23%) out of the 26 are owned, as Jarir’s strategy is to only from 2002 until buy properties in prime locations, with a potential for a significant price appreciation. The 2008 remaining 20 showrooms (77%) are leased over periods ranging between 10 - 20 years. Retail Jarir is the top sales grew at an impressive CAGR of 32% from 2002 until 2008, generating SAR2.2 billion in laptops retailer in 2008 and representing 89% of the business. Laptop sales as well as computer and IT products Saudi Arabia with a have been the major contributor to the growth in the retail division over the past few years. 50% market share With more than 320,000 laptops sold in 2008, representing 50% of the market, Jarir is the top laptop retailer in Saudi Arabia. Laptops represented 50% of Jarir’s total sales in 2008 b) Jarir Marketing (Wholesale division – 11% of sales in 2008): Jarir’s wholesale division The wholesale operates 5 wholesale showrooms and 7 wholesales offices, all of which are located in Saudi division grew at a Arabia. The division sells office and school supplies to both retailers and wholesalers. Private CAGR of 15% from labels constitute a major part of sales. The wholesale business grew at a CAGR of 15% from 2002 until 2008 2002 until 2008, generating SAR289 million in 2008 and representing 11% of the business Figure 1| Jarir’s operations Planned expansion falls under the retail divisions’ showrooms Source: Jarir 2 Jarir Our View A major beneficiary of the region’s demographics and rising consumer spending Jarir has been a major beneficiary of the attractive demographics and rising spending patterns of Jarir is a major consumers in Saudi Arabia and the GCC region over the past three decades, with further opportunities for beneficiary of the growth.
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