Working Paper 96-7 / Document de travail 96-7 An Econometric Examination of the Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada by Denise Côté and Doug Hostland Bank of Canada Banque du Canada May 1996 AN ECONOMETRIC EXAMINATION OF THE TREND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN CANADA by Denise Côté and Doug Hostland Research Department E-mail:
[email protected] Hostland.Douglas@fin.gc.ca This paper is intended to make the results of Bank research available in preliminary form to other economists to encourage discussion and suggestions for revision. The views expressed are those of the authors. No responsibility for them should be attributed to the Bank of Canada. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors would like to thank Pierre Duguay, Irene Ip, Paul Jenkins, David Longworth, Tiff Macklem, Brian O’Reilly, Ron Parker, David Rose and Steve Poloz for many helpful comments and suggestions, and Sébastien Sherman for his assistance in preparing the graphs. We would also like to thank the participants of a joint Research Department/UQAM Macro-Labour Workshop for their comments and Helen Meubus for her editorial suggestions. ISSN 1192-5434 ISBN 0-662-24596-2 Printed in Canada on recycled paper iii ABSTRACT This paper attempts to identify the trend unemployment rate, an empirical concept, using cointegration theory. The authors examine whether there is a cointegrating relationship between the observed unemployment rate and various structural factors, focussing neither on the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) nor on the natural rate of unemployment, but rather on the trend unemployment rate, which they define in terms of cointegration. They show that, given the non stationary nature of the data, cointegration represents a necessary condition for analysing the NAIRU and the natural rate but not a sufficient condition for defining them.