Econometric Theory
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Fritz Machlup's Construction of a Synthetic Concept
The Knowledge Economy: Fritz Machlup’s Construction of a Synthetic Concept Benoît Godin 385 rue Sherbrooke Est Montreal, Quebec Canada H2X 1E3 [email protected] Project on the History and Sociology of S&T Statistics Working Paper No. 37 2008 Previous Papers in the Series: 1. B. Godin, Outlines for a History of Science Measurement. 2. B. Godin, The Measure of Science and the Construction of a Statistical Territory: The Case of the National Capital Region (NCR). 3. B. Godin, Measuring Science: Is There Basic Research Without Statistics? 4. B. Godin, Neglected Scientific Activities: The (Non) Measurement of Related Scientific Activities. 5. H. Stead, The Development of S&T Statistics in Canada: An Informal Account. 6. B. Godin, The Disappearance of Statistics on Basic Research in Canada: A Note. 7. B. Godin, Defining R&D: Is Research Always Systematic? 8. B. Godin, The Emergence of Science and Technology Indicators: Why Did Governments Supplement Statistics With Indicators? 9. B. Godin, The Number Makers: A Short History of Official Science and Technology Statistics. 10. B. Godin, Metadata: How Footnotes Make for Doubtful Numbers. 11. B. Godin, Innovation and Tradition: The Historical Contingency of R&D Statistical Classifications. 12. B. Godin, Taking Demand Seriously: OECD and the Role of Users in Science and Technology Statistics. 13. B. Godin, What’s So Difficult About International Statistics? UNESCO and the Measurement of Scientific and Technological Activities. 14. B. Godin, Measuring Output: When Economics Drives Science and Technology Measurements. 15. B. Godin, Highly Qualified Personnel: Should We Really Believe in Shortages? 16. B. Godin, The Rise of Innovation Surveys: Measuring a Fuzzy Concept. -
Economics 329: ECONOMIC STATISTICS Fall 2016, Unique Number 34060 T, Th 3:30 – 5:00 (WCH 1.120) Instructor: Dr
University of Texas at Austin Course Outline Economics 329: ECONOMIC STATISTICS Fall 2016, Unique number 34060 T, Th 3:30 – 5:00 (WCH 1.120) Instructor: Dr. Valerie R. Bencivenga Office: BRB 3.102C Office hours (Fall 2016): T, Th 11:00 – 12:30 Phone: 512-475-8509 Email: [email protected] (course email) or [email protected] The best ways to contact me are by email and in person after class or in office hours. If I don’t answer my phone, do not leave a phone message – please send an email. Use the course email for most emails, including exam scheduling. COURSE OBJECTIVES Economic Statistics is a first course in quantitative methods that are widely-used in economics and business. The main objectives of this course are to explore methods for describing data teach students how to build and analyze probability models of economic and business situations introduce a variety of statistical methods used to draw conclusions from economic data, and to convey the conceptual and mathematical foundations of these methods lay a foundation for econometrics COURSE DESCRIPTION SEGMENT 1. The unit on descriptive statistics covers methods for describing the distribution of data on one or more variables, including measures of central tendency and dispersion, correlation, frequency distributions, percentiles, and histograms. In economics and business, we usually specify a probability model for the random process that generated the data (data-generating process, or DGP). The unit on probability theory covers the set-theoretic foundations of probability and the axioms of probability; rules of probability derived from the axioms, including Bayes’ Rule; counting rules; and joint probability distributions. -
Recent Developments in Macro-Econometric Modeling: Theory and Applications
econometrics Editorial Recent Developments in Macro-Econometric Modeling: Theory and Applications Gilles Dufrénot 1,*, Fredj Jawadi 2,* and Alexander Mihailov 3,* ID 1 Faculty of Economics and Management, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, 13205 Marseille, France 2 Department of Finance, University of Evry-Paris Saclay, 2 rue du Facteur Cheval, 91025 Évry, France 3 Department of Economics, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6AA, UK * Correspondence: [email protected] (G.D.); [email protected] (F.J.); [email protected] (A.M.) Received: 6 February 2018; Accepted: 2 May 2018; Published: 14 May 2018 Developments in macro-econometrics have been evolving since the aftermath of the Second World War. Essentially, macro-econometrics benefited from the development of mathematical, statistical, and econometric tools. Such a research programme has attained a meaningful success as the methods of macro-econometrics have been used widely over about half a century now to check the implications of economic theories, to model macroeconomic relationships, to forecast business cycles, and to help policymakers to make appropriate decisions. However, despite this progress, important methodological and interpretative questions in macro-econometrics remain (Stock 2001). Additionally, the recent global financial crisis of 2008–2009 and the subsequent deep and long economic recession signaled the end of the “great moderation” (early 1990s–2007) and suggested some limitations of the widely employed and by then dominant macro-econometric framework. One of these deficiencies was that current macroeconomic models have failed to predict this huge economic downturn, perhaps because they did not take into account indicators of contagion, systemic risk, and the financial cycle, or the inter-connectedness of asset markets, in particular housing, with the macro-economy. -
Pandemic 101:A Roadmap to Help Students Grasp an Economic Shock
Social Education 85(2) , pp.64–71 ©2021 National Council for the Social Studies Teaching the Economic Effects of the Pandemic Pandemic 101: A Roadmap to Help Students Grasp an Economic Shock Kim Holder and Scott Niederjohn This article focuses on the major national economic indicators and how they changed within the United States real GDP; the over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. The indicators that we discuss include output from a Ford plant in Canada is not. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the unemployment rate, interest rates, inflation, and Economists typically measure real GDP other variations of these measures. We will also present data that sheds light on the as a growth rate per quarter: Is GDP get- monetary and fiscal policy responses to the pandemic. Graphs of these statistics are ting bigger or smaller compared to a prior sure to grab teachers’ and students’ attention due to the dramatic shock fueled by the quarter? In fact, a common definition of pandemic. We will explain these economic indicators with additional attention to what a recession is two quarters in a row of they measure and the limitations they may present. Teachers will be introduced to the declining real GDP. Incidentally, it also Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), which is a rich source of graphs and measures total U.S. income (and spend- information for teacher instruction and student research. Further classroom-based ing) and that explains why real GDP per resources related to understanding the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic capita is a well-established measure used are also presented. -
Occasional Paper 03 November 2020 ISSN 2515-4664
Public Understanding of Economics and Economic Statistics Johnny Runge and Nathan Hudson Advisory team: Amy Sippitt Mike Hughes Jonathan Portes ESCoE Occasional Paper 03 November 2020 ISSN 2515-4664 OCCASIONAL PAPER Public Understanding of Economics and Economic Statistics Johnny Runge and Nathan Hudson ESCoE Occasional Paper No. 03 November 2020 Abstract This study explores the public understanding of economics and economics statistics, through mixed-methods research with the UK public, including 12 focus groups with 130 participants and a nationally representative survey with 1,665 respondents. It shows that people generally understand economic issues through the lens of their familiar personal economy rather than the abstract national economy. The research shows that large parts of the UK public have misperceptions about how economic figures, such as the unemployment and inflation rate, are collected and measured, and who they are produced and published by. This sometimes affected participants’ subsequent views of the perceived accuracy and reliability of economic statistics. Broadly, the focus groups suggested that people are often sceptical and cynical about any data they see, and that official economic data are subject to the same public scrutiny as any other data. In line with other research, the survey found consistent and substantial differences in economic knowledge and interest across different groups of the UK population. This report will be followed up with an engagement exercise to discuss findings with stakeholders, in order to draw out recommendations on how to improve the communication of economics and economic statistics to the public. Keywords: public understanding, public perceptions, communication, economic statistics JEL classification: Z00, D83 Johnny Runge, National Institute of Economic and Social Research and ESCoE, [email protected] and Nathan Hudson, National Institute of Economic and Social Research and ESCoE. -
UNEMPLOYMENT and LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION: a PANEL COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS for EUROPEAN COUNTRIES OZERKEK, Yasemin Abstract This
Applied Econometrics and International Development Vol. 13-1 (2013) UNEMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION: A PANEL COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS FOR EUROPEAN COUNTRIES OZERKEK, Yasemin* Abstract This paper investigates the long-run relationship between unemployment and labor force participation and analyzes the existence of added/discouraged worker effect, which has potential impact on economic growth and development. Using panel cointegration techniques for a panel of European countries (1983-2009), the empirical results show that this long-term relation exists for only females and there is discouraged worker effect for them. Thus, female unemployment is undercount. Keywords: labor-force participation rate, unemployment rate, discouraged worker effect, panel cointegration, economic development JEL Codes: J20, J60, O15, O52 1. Introduction The link between labor force participation and unemployment has long been a key concern in the literature. There is general agreement that unemployment tends to cause workers to leave the labor force (Schwietzer and Smith, 1974). A discouraged worker is one who stopped actively searching for jobs because he does not think he can find work. Discouraged workers are out of the labor force and hence are not taken into account in the calculation of unemployment rate. Since unemployment rate disguises discouraged workers, labor-force participation rate has a central role in giving clues about the employment market and the overall health of the economy.1 Murphy and Topel (1997) and Gustavsson and Österholm (2006) mention that discouraged workers, who have withdrawn from labor force for market-driven reasons, can considerably affect the informational value of the unemployment rate as a macroeconomic indicator. The relationship between unemployment and labor-force participation is an important concern in the fields of labor economics and development economics as well. -
ONS Economic Statistics and Analysis Strategy
Economic statistics and analysis strategy HOTEL September 2016 www.ons.gov.uk Economic statistics and analysis strategy, Office for National Statistics, September 2016 Economic Statistics and Analysis Strategy Office for National Statistics September 2016 Introduction ONS published its Economic Statistics and Analysis Strategy (ESAS) for consultation in May 2016, building upon the National Accounts Strategy1, but going further to cover the whole of Economic Statistics Analysis in the light of the recommendations of the Bean Review. This strategy will be reviewed and updated annually to reflect of changing needs and priorities, and availability of resources, in order to give a clear prioritisation for ONS’s work on economic statistics, but also our research and Joint working agendas. Making explicit ONS’s perceived priorities will allow greater scrutiny and assurance that these are the right ones. ESAS lays out research and development priorities, making it easier for external experts to see the areas where ONS has and would be particularly keen to collaborate. The strategy was published for consultation and ONS thanks all users of ONS economic statistics and other parties, including those in government, academia, and the private sector who provided comments as part of the consultation. These comments have now been taken on board and incorporated into this latest version of the ESAS. Overview The main focus of ONS’s strategy for economic statistics and analysis over the period to 2021 will be in the following areas: 1 Available at Annex 1. 1 Economic statistics and analysis strategy, Office for National Statistics, September 2016 • Taking forward the programme set out in the latest national accounts strategy and work plan to meet international reporting standards according to the agreed timetable; and to improve the measurement of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) through the introduction of constant price supply and use balancing, the adoption of double deflated estimates of gross value added and improved use and specification of price indices. -
What Is Econometrics?
Robert D. Coleman, PhD © 2006 [email protected] What Is Econometrics? Econometrics means the measure of things in economics such as economies, economic systems, markets, and so forth. Likewise, there is biometrics, sociometrics, anthropometrics, psychometrics and similar sciences devoted to the theory and practice of measure in a particular field of study. Here is how others describe econometrics. Gujarati (1988), Introduction, Section 1, What Is Econometrics?, page 1, says: Literally interpreted, econometrics means “economic measurement.” Although measurement is an important part of econometrics, the scope of econometrics is much broader, as can be seen from the following quotations. Econometrics, the result of a certain outlook on the role of economics, consists of the application of mathematical statistics to economic data to lend empirical support to the models constructed by mathematical economics and to obtain numerical results. ~~ Gerhard Tintner, Methodology of Mathematical Economics and Econometrics, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1968, page 74. Econometrics may be defined as the quantitative analysis of actual economic phenomena based on the concurrent development of theory and observation, related by appropriate methods of inference. ~~ P. A. Samuelson, T. C. Koopmans, and J. R. N. Stone, “Report of the Evaluative Committee for Econometrica,” Econometrica, vol. 22, no. 2, April 1954, pages 141-146. Econometrics may be defined as the social science in which the tools of economic theory, mathematics, and statistical inference are applied to the analysis of economic phenomena. ~~ Arthur S. Goldberger, Econometric Theory, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, 1964, page 1. 1 Robert D. Coleman, PhD © 2006 [email protected] Econometrics is concerned with the empirical determination of economic laws. -
An Econometric Examination of the Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada
Working Paper 96-7 / Document de travail 96-7 An Econometric Examination of the Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada by Denise Côté and Doug Hostland Bank of Canada Banque du Canada May 1996 AN ECONOMETRIC EXAMINATION OF THE TREND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN CANADA by Denise Côté and Doug Hostland Research Department E-mail: [email protected] Hostland.Douglas@fin.gc.ca This paper is intended to make the results of Bank research available in preliminary form to other economists to encourage discussion and suggestions for revision. The views expressed are those of the authors. No responsibility for them should be attributed to the Bank of Canada. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors would like to thank Pierre Duguay, Irene Ip, Paul Jenkins, David Longworth, Tiff Macklem, Brian O’Reilly, Ron Parker, David Rose and Steve Poloz for many helpful comments and suggestions, and Sébastien Sherman for his assistance in preparing the graphs. We would also like to thank the participants of a joint Research Department/UQAM Macro-Labour Workshop for their comments and Helen Meubus for her editorial suggestions. ISSN 1192-5434 ISBN 0-662-24596-2 Printed in Canada on recycled paper iii ABSTRACT This paper attempts to identify the trend unemployment rate, an empirical concept, using cointegration theory. The authors examine whether there is a cointegrating relationship between the observed unemployment rate and various structural factors, focussing neither on the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) nor on the natural rate of unemployment, but rather on the trend unemployment rate, which they define in terms of cointegration. They show that, given the non stationary nature of the data, cointegration represents a necessary condition for analysing the NAIRU and the natural rate but not a sufficient condition for defining them. -
Some Critical Problems in Economic Statistics: a Progress Report1
SOME CRITICAL PROBLEMS IN ECONOMIC STATISTICS: A PROGRESS REPORT1 R.W. Edwards First Assistant Statistician Economic Accounts Division Australian Bureau of Statistics PO Box 10 Belconnen ACT 2616 Australia [email protected] 1. Summary The paper reports on progress in dealing with a range of so-called critical problems in economic statistics identified and reported on to the 1997 United Nations Statistical Commission by an Expert Group. The problems were seen as having the potential to affect the confidence of users in economic statistics if not effectively addressed. Overall, the author concludes that satisfactory progress is being made on the problems, thanks to the collaborative efforts of many national and international statistical agencies. 2. Introduction The 1995 United Nations Statistical Commission (UNSC), in discussing "critical problems in economic statistics", recognised that effectively dealing with problems related to the production and dissemination of timely, relevant and accurate economic indicators, as well as their interpretation and use, was critical to the continued integrity of statistics. Responding to this concern statisticians from four countries (Australia, Canada, India, USA), the United Nations Statistical Division and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development were constituted as the Expert Group on Critical Problems in Economic Statistics. The Expert Group's task was to systematise the issues, and to report back to the UNSC at its 1997 meeting. Actions arising from decisions taken by the UNSC, which are the subject of this paper, have driven a considerable proportion of the international agenda in economic statistics over the last few years. 3. The Deliberations of the Expert Group The Expert Group focussed on problems that affect the confidence of users in economic statistics. -
Hyperinflation in Venezuela
POLICY BRIEF recovery can be possible without first stabilizing the explo- 19-13 Hyperinflation sive price level. Doing so will require changing the country’s fiscal and monetary regimes. in Venezuela: A Since late 2018, authorities have been trying to control the price spiral by cutting back on fiscal expenditures, contracting Stabilization domestic credit, and implementing new exchange rate poli- cies. As a result, inflation initially receded from its extreme Handbook levels, albeit to a very high and potentially unstable 30 percent a month. But independent estimates suggest that prices went Gonzalo Huertas out of control again in mid-July 2019, reaching weekly rates September 2019 of 10 percent, placing the economy back in hyperinflation territory. Instability was also reflected in the premium on Gonzalo Huertas was research analyst at the Peterson Institute foreign currency in the black market, which also increased for International Economics. He worked with C. Fred Bergsten in July after a period of relative calm in previous months. Senior Fellow Olivier Blanchard on macroeconomic theory This Policy Brief describes a feasible stabilization plan and policy. Before joining the Institute, Huertas worked as a researcher at Harvard University for President Emeritus and for Venezuela’s extreme inflation. It places the country’s Charles W. Eliot Professor Lawrence H. Summers, producing problems in context by outlining the economics behind work on fiscal policy, and for Minos A. Zombanakis Professor Carmen Reinhart, focusing on exchange rate interventions. hyperinflations: how they develop, how they disrupt the normal functioning of economies, and how other countries Author’s Note: I am grateful to Adam Posen, Olivier Blanchard, across history have designed policies to overcome them. -
Nine Lives of Neoliberalism
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Plehwe, Dieter (Ed.); Slobodian, Quinn (Ed.); Mirowski, Philip (Ed.) Book — Published Version Nine Lives of Neoliberalism Provided in Cooperation with: WZB Berlin Social Science Center Suggested Citation: Plehwe, Dieter (Ed.); Slobodian, Quinn (Ed.); Mirowski, Philip (Ed.) (2020) : Nine Lives of Neoliberalism, ISBN 978-1-78873-255-0, Verso, London, New York, NY, https://www.versobooks.com/books/3075-nine-lives-of-neoliberalism This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/215796 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative