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Pandemic 101:A Roadmap to Help Students Grasp an Economic Shock Social Education 85(2) , pp.64–71 ©2021 National Council for the Social Studies Teaching the Economic Effects of the Pandemic Pandemic 101: A Roadmap to Help Students Grasp an Economic Shock Kim Holder and Scott Niederjohn This article focuses on the major national economic indicators and how they changed within the United States real GDP; the over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. The indicators that we discuss include output from a Ford plant in Canada is not. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the unemployment rate, interest rates, inflation, and Economists typically measure real GDP other variations of these measures. We will also present data that sheds light on the as a growth rate per quarter: Is GDP get- monetary and fiscal policy responses to the pandemic. Graphs of these statistics are ting bigger or smaller compared to a prior sure to grab teachers’ and students’ attention due to the dramatic shock fueled by the quarter? In fact, a common definition of pandemic. We will explain these economic indicators with additional attention to what a recession is two quarters in a row of they measure and the limitations they may present. Teachers will be introduced to the declining real GDP. Incidentally, it also Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), which is a rich source of graphs and measures total U.S. income (and spend- information for teacher instruction and student research. Further classroom-based ing) and that explains why real GDP per resources related to understanding the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic capita is a well-established measure used are also presented. to compare how affluent one nation is compared to another. (U.S. real GDP per The Pandemic and the Economy org/). Students may be familiar with eco- capita is about $56,000; it is closer to The COVID-19-induced pandemic nomic shocks of the past like the Great $3,000 in Nigeria.) has had an impact on nearly every area Depression and World War II; however, An examination of Figure 1 reveals of life. Beginning with lockdowns man- this article addresses a present-minded the percentage change in growth in real dated in most states in March 2020, the study of the shock they are currently liv- GDP since 2007 by quarter. Over most way Americans work, socialize, travel, ing through. of that period the U.S. economy was in spend money, attend school, and nearly an expansion. The shaded area on the everything else has been affected. Of The Economic Statistics left side of the chart shows the recession course, this has been widely reported in GDP, Production, and Spending induced by the financial crisis in 2008 the media and has dominated the public The most widely used measure of the and 2009. And the dramatic data on the conversation for months. However, it is total economy is real GDP. Real GDP right side of the graph shows the present also interesting to look at this pandemic measures the total of all final goods and situation. There was a huge decline in from an economic perspective. Economic services produced within the United real GDP in the second quarter of 2020 data reveals the impact of many of these States over a time period and is adjusted as states imposed lockdowns on their changes. For teachers and students, a for inflation. To avoid double counting residents and economies. However, real review of this data can be an intriguing only final goods and services are counted. GDP snapped back at the fastest rate in way to engage with the sometimes-drab (You would not want to count the car’s U.S. history in the third quarter, growing subject of macroeconomic data analysis. radio and the car since the car’s overall at an annual rate of more than 33 per- The Federal Reserve Economic Data price already reflects the value of all of its cent, as efforts to reopen businesses and (FRED) website provides a convenient components.) Ownership does not matter resume postponed activities previously tool for gathering, graphing, and discuss- in GDP, only location. The output from restricted due to COVID-19 grew over ing economic data (https://fred.stlouisfed. a Toyota plant in Kentucky is included the summer. Social Education 64 Figure 1. Quarterly Percentage Change in Real GDP for United States, 2007 to Present Real Gross Domestic Product 40 30 d o i r e P g n i 20 d e c e r P m o 10 r f e g n a h C t 0 n e c r e P , o g -10 A r a e Y m o r -20 f e g n a h C -30 -40 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis fred.stlouisfed.org While real GDP provides a macro-level look at the state of the economy, it is possible to drill down deeper to investigate sectors of the economy strongly affected by the pandemic. Figure 2 shows sales of food and beverages in the U.S. between 2018 and today after adjusting for inflation. The red line represents sales in stores (grocery and liquor stores) while the blue line represents sales in restaurants and bars. The first interesting thing to note is that there are some stretches of time (September and October 2019, January 2020) where Americans purchased more food and beverages in restaurants than at grocery stores. More interesting for our purposes, however, is the major inflection point beginning in February of 2020. As the pandemic struck and lockdowns were instituted, a dramatic increase in food and beverage purchases in stores occurred while an even larger drop in restaurant and bar sales transpired. The difference between these two series of data narrowed beginning in the spring and into the summer; however, neither has yet returned to their more normal trend. Figure 2. Food and Beverage Sales in Restaurants and Stores, 2018 to Present Advance Retail Sales: Food Services and Drinking Places/Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average A final meaningful chart related to Advance Retail Sales: Food and Beverage Stores/Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average U.S. production and spending habits 320 as influenced by COVID-19 is shown 300 in Figure 3 (on p. 67). The chart shows 280 rail, air, and vehicle miles traveled by 260 0 Americans. All dropped off suddenly 0 1 = 240 4 8 as the pandemic struck—with obvious 9 1 - 2 220 8 9 implications for airlines, Amtrak, and 1 x e d 200 n oil and gas producers. The only sector I / $ f o 180 . l to partly recover was vehicle miles as i M 160 Americans began to drive more as lock- 140 downs were lifted. While many chose 120 summer driving trips over flying, the 100 number of miles driven continues to Jul 2018 Jan 2019 Jul 2019 Jan 2020 Jul 2020 Jan 2021 be well below trend as so many people Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau fred.stlouisfed.org continue to work from home. March/April 2021 65 Ten Useful Teaching Resources on the Economics of COVID 1. The COVID-19 Article Archive (https://fee.org/archive/topics/ unexpected growth that countries may experience due to COVID-19) from the Foundation for Economic Education the pandemic shakeup, and even dive into how behavioral is a rich set of collected articles that take a closer look at science can help us understand actions by individuals and the pandemic from an economic perspective beginning governments. (www.youtube.com/CoronaNomics) in February 2020 up to present day. Of particular interest is an article that explores the economics behind why toilet 7. COVID-19 and the National Debt is a lesson for 9th-12th grade paper shortages occurred around the world (https://fee.org/ students made available by the Council for Economic articles/why-are-there-toilet-paper-shortages-around-the- Education where students will learn about the potential costs world/). and benefits associated with increasing the nation’s debt. This lesson includes an on-demand webinar, presentation slides, 2. Northeastern University’s Pandemic Initiative is a two-part and assessment questions for registered users of the free module on economic efficiency and market failure, applying EconEdLink portal (www.econedlink.org/resources/covid- both concepts to the policy responses experienced during the 19-and-the-national-debt/). COVID-19 pandemic. This website includes lectures, slides, and activities along with links to recommended readings (https:// 8. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’ lesson, Retail Sales, cssh.northeastern.edu/pandemic-teaching-initiative/why- Employment, and the COVID-19 Pandemic (www.stlouisfed. markets-fail-the-economics-of-covid-19/). org/education/retail-sales-employment-pandemic), includes a short video with key data visualized using Federal 3. Marginal Revolution University’s Externalities and Incentives: Reserve Economic Data (FRED) charts. More importantly, it The Economics of COVID is a short video that focuses on the acts as an introduction to charts on spending, job losses, the positive externality of the COVID-19 vaccine and includes a set unemployment rate, the federal funds rate, and more along of practice questions (https://mru.org/courses/principles- with detailed notes on each topic, which allow students to dig economics-microeconomics/externalities-and-incentives- deeper into each chart series. Charts specific to keeping an economics-covid). As an extra bonus, it is embedded within eye on topics related to the pandemic can be found on the their overall lesson on positive and negative externalities, and COVID-19 Economic Data Tracking dashboard produced by the serves as a relatable, real-world example for your students.
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