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GW Master 14

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GW Master 14 Introduction Texas Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Global warming is one of Texas’ Fossil Fuels (1990-1999) Totals per Year - in million metric tons carbon foremost threats – economically, socially equivalent (MMTCE) and environmentally – of the new 170 century. Increases in the 165 concentration of greenhouse gases 160 (GHGs) in the atmosphere are 155 expected to result in higher regional 150 temperatures, more frequent intense 145 storms, rising sea levels, and changes 140 in water flows and quality. There is 135 broad agreement in the scientific 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 community that human activities are Greenhouse gas emissions in Texas contributing to these changes. This is are the highest in the nation. In fact, largely the result of releasing carbon if Texas were an independent nation, dioxide and other GHGs into the it would rank seventh in the world in atmosphere through burning fossil fuels. carbon dioxide emissions. The Union of Concerned Scientists Fortunately, studies have shown that (UCS) and the Ecological Society of Texas can be a leader in the solutions to America (ESA) conducted the most global warming. A Tellus Institute study recent study on global warming and for the World Wildlife Fund shows that Texas. In Confronting Climate Change aggressive policies can cut GHGs 34 in the Gulf Coast Region, UCS/ESA find percent in 10 years compared to business that in the next 100 years, summer as usual. These policies will also create temperatures in Texas could increase by a net 84,000 jobs and save the average 3-7ºF and minimum winter º consumer $200-$700 in annual energy temperatures could increase from 3 F to bills (Tellus, 2000). about 10ºF. The UCS/ESA study also finds that Texas will experience The Greenhouse Effect accelerated sea level rise, lower The earth is inhabitable because of the groundwater availability and intensified greenhouse effect – the insulating effect weather events like droughts and floods. of atmospheric gases that keeps the earth º The root cause of global warming is the some 60 F warmer than it would be growing amount of greenhouse gases otherwise. While most GHGs, such as emitted into the atmosphere. carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, are present in the atmosphere as a Climate models project that the result of natural processes, human summertime heat index (which activity has increased the emissions of combines the effects of heat and these gases into the atmosphere. Other humidity into an effective temperature) will increase between GHGs – such as halocarbons do not 10ºF to 25ºF in Texas. If the occur naturally and are purely of human projected rise in heat index were to occur, summertime conditions for origin. As a result of increases in all of Houston could become like those these emissions, the atmospheric experienced in Panama (115º+). concentrations of GHGs have increased, enhancing the natural CoolTexas Special Report 1 greenhouse effect, and bringing with it The Greenhouse Effect more warming. The gases of greatest concern are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and halocarbons. Carbon dioxide, which is produced primarily through burning gasoline, natural gas, coal, and oil, is the largest contributor to the greenhouse effect (82 percent nationwide). Methane, which is over 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, accounts for just under 10 percent of US emissions and result from decomposing landfill waste, manure and fermentation from livestock and natural gas systems. Nitrous oxide emissions are six percent of US GHG emissions and arise from agricultural soil management and combustion engines. Halocarbons, which include chlorofluorocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons, and perfluorocarbons, are typically produced during industrial processes (US EPA, 2001). Global Warming Potentials Source: University of Michigan The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is The reference gas used in the chart a measure that quantifies the relative below is carbon dioxide. According to climate forcing impacts of various the International Panel on Climate GHGs. It is defined as the cumulative Change (IPCC) GWPs typically have an climate forcing over a specified time uncertainty of + 35 percent. horizon relative to some reference gas. Greenhouse Gases And Their Sources Greenhouse Gas Source Life Span In Global Warming Potential Atmosphere Carbon dioxide (CO ) Fossil fuels, deforestation, soil 2 Up to 200 years 1 destruction Methane (CH ) Cattle, biomass, rice paddies, 4 14 years 21 gas leaks, mining, termites Nitrous oxide (N O) Fossil fuels, refineries, soil 2 114 years 310 cultivation, deforestation Chlorofluorocarbons Refrigeration, air (CFCs 11 and 12) conditioning, aerosols, foam 45 years 2000-3000 blowing, solvents Ozone and other trace Photochemical processes, Hours to days in upper Difficult to trace gases cars, refineries, power plants troposphere Source: International Panel on Climate Change. 2001. CoolTexas Special Report 2 Global Warming Science Addressing the challenges of global warming requires understanding the natural and human forces that drive climate. In the last decade, significant gains have been made in developing a rigorous scientific understanding of global warming. The International Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) To provide a scientifically sound basis for global warming policymaking, the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization in 1988 established an international team of scientists to review and assess the state of global warming science. This team, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has since published three comprehensive assessments (in 1990, 1996 and 2001) and several more narrowly focused assessments, all based on extensive reviews of published and peer-reviewed research on all aspects of global warming. The multi-year assessments are conducted by thousands of global warming experts – natural and social scientists, economists, and industry and nongovernmental experts on various aspects of global warming – from more than 100 countries. Each assessment undergoes an extensive multistage process of scientific peer review and finally a governmental review to generate what is widely recognized as the most comprehensive and credible evaluation of the state of global warming science. A joint statement by 16 national academies of science and a separate statement by the US National Academy of Sciences recognized the IPCC technical assessments as the most objective and comprehensive overviews of global warming science. The scientific consensus that emerged from the IPCC process is that the global average temperature has risen by about 1º Fahrenheit over the past 140 years, and the average could rise by another 2.5º to 10.4º Fahrenheit by the end of the 21st century if greenhouse- gas emissions are not dramatically reduced. Other observed changes in the global climate such as increased rainfall and more extreme rainfall events, along with observed impacts of global warming led the IPCC to conclude that these events create “a collective picture of a warming world that is already seeing the first signs of changing climate.” The panel also found evidence of a human role in this change, concluding that human emissions of greenhouse gases “have contributed substantially to the observed warming over the last 50 years” (IPCC 2001). US National Academy Of Sciences (NAS) In a June 2001 report requested by the Bush administration, a committee of the National Academies' National Research Council summed up science's current understanding of global warming and examined what may be in store for the 21st century. The committee, made up of 11 of the nation's top climate scientists – one of whom is a Nobel-Prize winner – found that the IPCC conclusion that global warming has occurred in the last 50 years is likely the result of increases in greenhouse gases accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community. In December 2001, the NAS released a study that found dramatic shifts in climate (up to 18 degree in one decade) have occurred in the past and "abrupt climate changes were especially common when the climate system was forced to change most rapidly.” The NAS concluded, “thus, greenhouse warming and other human alterations of the earth system may increase the possibility of large, abrupt and unwelcome regional or global climatic events" (NRC, 2001). CoolTexas Special Report 3 likely to change. Sea-level rise will add to stresses coastal communities already face, including erosion and storm damage. Natural ecosystems – already facing human-caused stresses such as habitat destruction and species loss – may not be able to adapt fast enough to keep up with a rapidly changing climate. The latest IPCC report also strengthened its conclusion about the role of human activities and global warming, finding that human- generated emissions “have contributed substantially to the observed warming over the last 50 years.” Texas and Global Warming In 1991, legislative leaders in Texas assembled the Joint Select Committee on Toxic Air Emissions and the Greenhouse Source: US Global Change Research Program. 2000. Effect to study the statewide effects of global warming and prudent responses. The Planet is Warming After months of testimony and research, The scientific record from global the committee’s final interim report to nd temperature readings over the last the 72 Legislature predicted how century leaves no doubt that the earth is climate change could: October 2001 was the warmest · Increase storm activity
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