Changing Climates Changing Climates
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Story by Kathy Wythe CHANGING CLIMATES Researchers investigating effects, mitigation tx H2O | | pg. pg. 2 2 Editor’s note: This story highlights climate change research from only a few scientists in Texas. A more detailed story of their research is available on Texas Water Resources Institute’s web site at http://twri.tamu.edu/climatechange. Other researchers are listed at http://twri.tamu.edu/climatechangeresearchers. Additional scientists may be added by clicking on the comment section. ong before climate change Land global warming became such a popular topic, scientists were researching the different aspects of the world’s changing climate. CHANGING CLIMATES In Texas alone, dozens of scientists from different universities and a wide range of academic areas are investigating the different compo- nents. More recently, they are taking information gleaned from the global climate models and applying them to research questions pertaining to Texas. Dr. Bruce McCarl, Regents Professor of agricultural economics at Texas A&M University, has researched the economics of climate change for the last 20 McCarl years. McCarl, as a lead ] txtx H H2O2O | | pg. 3 Changing Climates author in a 2007 Intergovernmental Panel tributor to and expert reviewer on Climate Change (IPCC) report, shares of the latest IPCC report, in the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with the other Hayhoe also shared in the scientists on the panel as well as Al Gore. Nobel Peace Prize. She is His research has focused on economic effects currently collaborating with of climate change on agriculture and forestry researchers from the Univer- and their possible roles in mitigating climate sity of Chicago, University change. of Illinois, and Harvard Uni- In his mitigation research, McCarl has versity on a National Science Hayhoe proposed that agriculture can help reduce Foundation grant to develop greenhouse gases. The first option, he said, new statistical methods to relate global is for agriculture to reduce and control direct climate projections to what will happen emissions by reducing irrigation pumping, at the local scale. which uses energy; reducing fertilizer use, She said people need specific examples which produces the greenhouse gas, nitrous about the effects of climate change, like an oxide; and improving manure management increase in the number of days a city might of livestock herds. The second way is by modi- experience over 100 degrees Fahrenheit, or fying agricultural management to enhance a change in the frequency of drought condi- the stored carbon, thus increasing carbon tions. “People need this type of information sequestration. McCarl said agriculture could to make decisions,” she said, and individual also generate products that offset fossil fuel- cities need the information to make decisions intensive products. when planning for the future. Another Texas A&M “As individuals, we need to see how climate researcher, Dr. Gerald North, changes will affect where we live because we is an expert on simplified are being asked to make lifestyle changes to climate models, Earth prevent potentially dangerous impacts observing satellites, ancient of climate changes,” she said. “If we don’t climates, and the detection know what those impacts are likely to be and attribution of climate for us personally, it’s hard to be motivated change. The Distinguished to make those changes.” Professor of atmospheric North Professor of atmospheric sciences at sciences recently has been Texas A&M and the state’s studying climate models to better understand climatologist, Dr. John Nielsen- how precipitation, evaporation, and runoff Gammon, researches climate over the Greater Texas region will change variability and change in the over the next century. past. He has also investigated North and his colleagues in Texas A&M’s regional drought causes and Department of Atmospheric Sciences issued mechanisms, including specific a statement supporting the IPCC reports meteorological factors that and findings. The statement is available at lead to lack of rainfall in the http://www.met.tamu.edu/climatechange.php. Nielsen-Gammon summer, hurricane frequency, Katharine Hayhoe, associate professor and climate data quality. of geosciences at Texas Tech University, uses In one project, he is working with the Insti- global and regional climate model simulations tute for Science Technology and Public Policy to determine what climate change means to of The Bush School of Government and Public the places where we live. As a current con- Service, providing climate data for a project tx H2O | | pg. pg. 4 4 studying drought and drought variability Both projects are examining how decision over the past century in Texas and New makers and other stakeholders use science Mexico and policy makers’ perceptions of information about global climate change in drought. His research is specifically “looking their decision making process. Vedlitz said at spatial patterns of droughts in the past the researchers have done regional studies and frequency and whether precipitation and on the Gulf Coast, national studies of decision drought has changed significantly over the makers, national public opinion polls and past 100 years,” he said. He has found that interviewed a national sample of climate total precipitation has increased in Texas by scientists to determine how different stake- 10 to 20 percent over the past 100 years. holder groups use climate change information. This project is one of two that are focused The second part of their research is answer- on climate change at the Bush School institute, ing the question, “How can we make this according to Dr. Arnold Vedlitz, director. information more usable to decision makers?” ] The Texas warming and rainfall manipulation experiment (WARM) is investigating the effects of climate change on oak savanna in Texas. Rainfall exclusion shelters and infrared lamps are used to control rainfall and simulate future climate warming. (Photo courtesy of MG Tjoelker.) txtx H H2O2O | | pg. 5 Changing Climates Vedlitz said. The researchers are developing to 100,000 years. Her main interests are in fun- decision tools and models to help decision damental mechanisms of the carbon cycle and makers make better use of the information. how humans are altering these mechanisms Part of the research of Dr. Steven Quiring, through combustion of fossil fuel, land use Texas A&M assistant professor change, and erosion. Masiello and her group, of geography, is focused on Rice Isotope Biogeochemistry, are currently the influence of global climate studying how changes in climate and land use change on the hydrologic cycle are controlling river carbon cycling. and drought. Using records At The University of Texas at Austin (UT), from the past, Quiring said researchers at the Environmental Science he can study drought and its Institute (ESI)—a multi-disciplinary institute natural variability to put it for basic scientific research in environmental into proper perspective Quiring studies—are examining different aspects of to help detect future changes climate change. Dr. Jay Banner, director, said from climate change. its work includes climate change history, “We need to use the observational record impacts, remediation and education, climate to make sure we understand how the system modeling, records, and abrupt climate change. works,” Quiring said. “Once we understand Dr. Zong-Liang Yang, associate professor how the system works then that is the in the Jackson School of Geosciences, and jumping off point for climate change.” his Land Environmental In research funded by the U.S. Department and Atmospheric Dynamics of Energy through the Southeastern Region (LEAD) group are studying of the National Institute for Climatic Change the impacts of climate change Research, Texas A&M researchers Drs. Mark on a finer scale. Tjoelker and David Briske of the Department They are using various of Ecosystem Science and Management and computer models to study the Astrid Volder of the Department of Horticul- interaction of land use and the tural Science are conducting a large, multi- atmosphere. Yang year experiment near the Texas A&M campus. For a National Aeronautics and Space They are examining the effects of climate Administration grant, Yang, along with other warming and drought predicted within the ESI-affiliated researchers, are using a series next several decades on the post oak savannas of nested computer models that integrate cli- and woodlands of central Texas. matic, hydrologic, ecological, and atmospheric Through three years of controlling the processes to study how climate change on temperature and rainfall to mimic predictions, the global scale will affect people locally. The Tjoelker said their research suggests that team is using the computer model to study the juniper will increase in dominance and inva- Nueces and Guadalupe watersheds. siveness in savanna grasslands Other UT researchers involved in the with both climate warming project are Drs. Guo-Yue Niu, Jackson School; and increased summer David Maidment, Department of Civil, Archi- drought. tectural and Environmental Engineering; Dr. Carrie A. Masiello, James McClelland, Marine Science Institute; assistant professor of earth and Hongjie Xie, Department of Earth and science at Rice University, Environmental Science, University of Texas at studies the Earth’s carbon San Antonio. Dr. Paul Montagna of the Harte cycle on timescales from five Masiello tx H2O | pg. 6 Research Institute at Texas A&M at Corpus of Earth and environmental sciences at The