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Home , Climate change in Texas

Story by Kathy Wythe

Ch a n g i n g Cl i m a t e s Researchers investigating effects, mitigation

tx H2O | | pg. pg. 2 2 Editor’s note: This story highlights research from only a few scientists in . A more detailed story of their research is available on Texas Institute’s web site at http://twri.tamu.edu/climatechange. Other researchers are listed at http://twri.tamu.edu/climatechangeresearchers. Additional scientists may be added by clicking on the comment section.

ong before climate change andL global warming became such a popular topic, scientists were researching the different aspects of the world’s changing climate. Ch a n g i n g Cl i m a t e s In Texas alone, dozens of scientists from different universities and a wide range of academic areas are investigating the different compo- nents. More recently, they are taking information gleaned from the global climate models and applying them to research questions pertaining to Texas. Dr. Bruce McCarl, Regents Professor of agricultural economics at Texas A&M University, has researched the economics of climate

change for the last 20 McCarl years. McCarl, as a lead ]

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author in a 2007 Intergovernmental Panel tributor to and expert reviewer on Climate Change (IPCC) report, shares of the latest IPCC report, in the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with the other Hayhoe also shared in the scientists on the panel as well as Al Gore. Nobel Peace Prize. She is His research has focused on economic effects currently collaborating with of climate change on agriculture and forestry researchers from the Univer- and their possible roles in mitigating climate sity of Chicago, University change. of , and Harvard Uni- In his mitigation research, McCarl has versity on a National Science Hayhoe proposed that agriculture can help reduce Foundation grant to develop greenhouse gases. The first option, he said, new statistical methods to relate global is for agriculture to reduce and control direct climate projections to what will happen emissions by reducing pumping, at the local scale. which uses energy; reducing fertilizer use, She said people need specific examples which produces the , nitrous about the effects of climate change, like an oxide; and improving manure management increase in the number of days a city might of livestock herds. The second way is by modi- experience over 100 degrees Fahrenheit, or fying agricultural management to enhance a change in the frequency of condi- the stored carbon, thus increasing carbon tions. “People need this type of information sequestration. McCarl said agriculture could to make decisions,” she said, and individual also generate products that offset fossil fuel- cities need the information to make decisions intensive products. when planning for the future. Another Texas A&M “As individuals, we need to see how climate researcher, Dr. Gerald North, changes will affect where we live because we is an expert on simplified are being asked to make lifestyle changes to climate models, Earth prevent potentially dangerous impacts observing satellites, ancient of climate changes,” she said. “If we don’t climates, and the detection know what those impacts are likely to be and attribution of climate for us personally, it’s hard to be motivated change. The Distinguished to make those changes.” Professor of atmospheric North Professor of atmospheric sciences at sciences recently has been Texas A&M and the state’s studying climate models to better understand climatologist, Dr. John Nielsen- how , evaporation, and runoff Gammon, researches climate over the Greater Texas region will change variability and change in the over the next century. past. He has also investigated North and his colleagues in Texas A&M’s regional drought causes and Department of Atmospheric Sciences issued mechanisms, including specific a statement supporting the IPCC reports meteorological factors that and findings. The statement is available at lead to lack of rainfall in the http://www.met.tamu.edu/climatechange.php. Nielsen-Gammon summer, hurricane frequency, Katharine Hayhoe, associate professor and climate data quality. of geosciences at Texas Tech University, uses In one project, he is working with the Insti- global and regional climate model simulations tute for Science Technology and Public Policy to determine what climate change means to of The Bush School of Government and Public the places where we live. As a current con- Service, providing climate data for a project

tx H2O | | pg. pg. 4 4 studying drought and drought variability Both projects are examining how decision over the past century in Texas and New makers and other stakeholders use science Mexico and policy makers’ perceptions of information about global climate change in drought. His research is specifically “looking their decision making process. Vedlitz said at spatial patterns of in the past the researchers have done regional studies and frequency and whether precipitation and on the Gulf Coast, national studies of decision drought has changed significantly over the makers, national public opinion polls and past 100 years,” he said. He has found that interviewed a national sample of climate total precipitation has increased in Texas by scientists to determine how different stake- 10 to 20 percent over the past 100 years. holder groups use climate change information. This project is one of two that are focused The second part of their research is answer- on climate change at the Bush School institute, ing the question, “How can we make this according to Dr. Arnold Vedlitz, director. information more usable to decision makers?” ]

The Texas warming and rainfall manipulation experiment (WARM) is investigating the effects of climate change on oak savanna in Texas. Rainfall exclusion shelters and infrared lamps are used to control rainfall and simulate future climate warming. (Photo courtesy of MG Tjoelker.)

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Vedlitz said. The researchers are developing to 100,000 years. Her main interests are in fun- decision tools and models to help decision damental mechanisms of the carbon cycle and makers make better use of the information. how humans are altering these mechanisms Part of the research of Dr. Steven Quiring, through combustion of fossil fuel, Texas A&M assistant professor change, and erosion. Masiello and her group, of geography, is focused on Rice Isotope Biogeochemistry, are currently the influence of global climate studying how changes in climate and land use change on the hydrologic cycle are controlling river carbon cycling. and drought. Using records At The University of Texas at Austin (UT), from the past, Quiring said researchers at the Environmental Science he can study drought and its Institute (ESI)—a multi-disciplinary institute natural variability to put it for basic scientific research in environmental into proper perspective Quiring studies—are examining different aspects of to help detect future changes climate change. Dr. Jay Banner, director, said from climate change. its work includes climate change history, “We need to use the observational record impacts, remediation and education, climate to make sure we understand how the system modeling, records, and abrupt climate change. works,” Quiring said. “Once we understand Dr. Zong-Liang Yang, associate professor how the system works then that is the in the Jackson School of Geosciences, and jumping off point for climate change.” his Land Environmental In research funded by the U.S. Department and Atmospheric Dynamics of Energy through the Southeastern Region (LEAD) group are studying of the National Institute for Climatic Change the impacts of climate change Research, Texas A&M researchers Drs. Mark on a finer scale. Tjoelker and David Briske of the Department They are using various of Science and Management and computer models to study the Astrid Volder of the Department of Horticul- interaction of land use and the tural Science are conducting a large, multi- atmosphere. Yang year experiment near the Texas A&M campus. For a National Aeronautics and Space They are examining the effects of climate Administration grant, Yang, along with other warming and drought predicted within the ESI-affiliated researchers, are using a series next several decades on the post oak savannas of nested computer models that integrate cli- and woodlands of . matic, hydrologic, ecological, and atmospheric Through three years of controlling the processes to study how climate change on temperature and rainfall to mimic predictions, the global scale will affect people locally. The Tjoelker said their research suggests that team is using the computer model to study the juniper will increase in dominance and inva- Nueces and Guadalupe watersheds. siveness in savanna grasslands Other UT researchers involved in the with both climate warming project are Drs. Guo-Yue Niu, Jackson School; and increased summer David Maidment, Department of Civil, Archi- drought. tectural and Environmental Engineering; Dr. Carrie A. Masiello, James McClelland, Marine Science Institute; assistant professor of earth and Hongjie Xie, Department of Earth and science at Rice University, Environmental Science, University of Texas at studies the Earth’s carbon . Dr. Paul Montagna of the Harte cycle on timescales from five Masiello

tx H2O | pg. 6 Research Institute at Texas A&M at Corpus of Earth and environmental sciences at The Christi is also a member. University of Texas at Arlington, is examining Dr. Charles Jackson, research scientist at the rates and processes by which the Missouri the Jackson School’s Institute for Geophysics, River changes its pattern and erosion trends is an expert in global climate change of the due to climate change. Although the area past—particularly episodes of abrupt climate being studied is the Missouri Drainage, he change within the past 100,000 years. Jackson said researchers will gain insight into how also works on quantifying climate prediction the High Plains, including parts of Texas, uncertainties in order to understand how responded in general to climate change over records of past change may be used to build the past 5,000 years. confidence in model predictions of the future. Dr. Arne Winguth, assistant professor of earth and environmental sciences at UT Through a National Science Foundation ] research grant, Dr. John Holbrook, professor at Arlington, has started analyzing recent

Texas is vulnerable to climate change Texas is expected to see hotter temperatures, more concentrated rain, higher soil evaporation rates, greater frequency of droughts, higher sea levels with increased hurricane intensities along with lower precipitation and diminished water supplies, according to two Texas A&M University research- ers. “Texas is very vulnerable to climate change,” said Dr. Bruce McCarl, Regents Professor in Texas A&M University’s Department of Agricultural Economics. “It Texas is also quite vulnerable if actions are has a warm, often dry, climate greatly affect- taken to mitigate climate change by reducing ing water and energy needs, agricultural and . forestry production, pest populations, “Nationally over 80 percent of the emissions disease prevalence, and ecological conditions. come from and electricity genera- “Agricultural production is highly influ- tion,” he said. “Texas emits almost twice the enced by such conditions and thus is total volume of greenhouse gasses compared vulnerable to climate change,” he said, with any other U.S. state. This comes from estimating that Texas will have as much Texas’ large and inventory ] as a 40 percent reduction in acreage in crop of -fired power plants.” production.

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climate records of Texas, particularly the annual climate variability on temperature northern part of the state. Winguth plans and precipitation in Texas, vulnerability of to process the recent climatic trends in Texas to tornadoes, and reassessment of and compare these data with predictions and probabilities for south-central from the IPCC. Texas. His doctoral students are investigat- Professor of geography at Texas State ing regional climate change in the University, Dr. David Butler, does climate National Park area, and spatial and temporal change research mainly in the Rocky Moun- trends in precipitation and evaporation in tains with U.S. Geological Survey funding. Texas. He has also done research on how climate The researchers said that, although Texas change is affecting in Central Texas scientists are conducting much research, more and on the relationships of climate change needs to done, especially at the local level. with range expansions of fire ants and their “It’s been my contention for 20 years that interaction with native animals. we haven’t been doing enough research on “Climate change in Central Texas will this question (climate change) in Texas,” said probably make flood forecasting more unpre- Dr. Gerald North of A&M’s atmospheric dictable than ever, as climatic extremes seem Sciences department. to become more common,” Butler said. To read more about the research Dr. Richard Dixon, associate professor or to comment on this story, please visit of geography at Texas State, researches http://twri.tamu.edu/climatechange. For a vulnerability analysis of tropical systems a list of Texas climate change researchers for Texas coastal counties, the impact of inter- or to add names, visit http://twri.tamu.edu/ climatechangeresearchers.

McCarl stressed that Texas could be “Other things, such as increased population, “squeezed” economically by attempts to the decline in the Ogallala , and lower emissions, which would increase energy increased will combine with prices and industry costs. climate change to make it worse.” “Furthermore, Texas is expecting a large Since research shows that the state’s average population growth that will increase its water temperature has increased by 2 degrees and energy needs,” McCarl said. Fahrenheit in the last three decades and will “My whole focus,” he explained, “has been continue to rise, North, who speaks on climate to estimate what damages arise if the ‘bull- change all over the state and country, said dozer’ of climate change hits us, and what precipitation would have to increase by 50 opportunities we have for agriculture to help percent to maintain current water volumes in mitigate them.” the state’s rivers and lakes. Dr. Gerald North, Distinguished Professor “The high temperatures experienced during in Texas A&M’s Department of Atmospheric the terrible drought in the 1950s will become Sciences, agreed with McCarl about Texas’ the average temperature,” he said. vulnerability, saying that, outside of Alaska, North co-edited a 1995 book, Impact of Global Texas may be the state most vulnerable to the Warming in Texas, and is currently working effects of climate change. on a revision due in 2008. McCarl is one “Texas will face a number of challenges, of the chapter authors. and its main problem is water,” North said.

tx H2O | | pg. pg. 8 8 Climate change primer Intergovernmental Panel on Climate • Continued greenhouse-gas emissions Change–The World Meteorological Organi- at or above current rates would zation and United Nations Environmental induce climate changes that would Program established the Intergovernmental be “very likely” (meaning a 90 percent Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. likelihood) to exceed those observed Its goal is to assess scientific, technical, and during the twentieth century. socio-economic information relevant to the • Fossil fuels will dominate the world’s understanding of climate change, its potential energy portfolio until at least 2030, impacts, and options for adaptation and miti- and emissions are expected to rise gation. It has issued four Assessment Reports by 25-90 percent during that time. (1990, 1995, 2001, and 2007) along with other • Given our current understanding, reports. A summary for policymakers of the it is too difficult to estimate the extent “Synthesis Report of the Fourth Assessment of future sea-level rise. Report,” which was released in November (taken from Nature News at www.nature.com/news) 2007 is available at http://www.ipcc.ch/. Global warming–Scientists say that The following are some findings of the the earth’s temperature has warmed by synthesis report: 0.6 ˚C to 0.9 ˚C in the last 100 years. They expect it to warm by as much as 10 ˚F over • Warming of the world’s climate is the next 100 years. “unequivocal”: 11 of the past 12 years (1995-2006) rank among the 12 warmest Greenhouse Gases (GHG)–Greenhouse years since 1850. gasses, which include , • It is “likely” (meaning a 66 percent methane, and nitrous oxide, trap heat, thus likelihood) that there has been increasing temperatures. The IPCC maintains significant man-made warming on that, since the industrial revolution began every continent except Antarctica around 1750, carbon dioxide levels have over the past half-century. increased 35 percent; and methane levels have increased by 148 percent.

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Climate, Weather and Water on the Web Compiled by Ric Jensen Climate Weather • The Texas Weather Connection • The National Weather Service h t t p : // t w c . t a m u . e d u http://www.weather.gov Information about climate factors Current and historical weather (temperatures, dewpoint, , information, including weather wind, and precipitation) from many conditions, weather forecasts, regions throughout Texas. and weather watches and warnings. • The Climate Atlas of the Users can sign up for automatic weather alerts about specific locations. http://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov Water Resources National maps that can display • The National Weather Service’s trends associated with temperature, Advanced Hydrologic Prediction precipitation, wind and other variables. Service • The National Drought Mitigation http://water.weather.gov Center Water-related information, including http://drought.unl.edu/monitor/ current conditions and forecasted monitor.htm flows for rivers, precipitation, and Current drought conditions, runoff. the number of dry and rainy days • The U.S. Geological Survey’s and the impact of drought on water National Water Information System supplies and vegetation. http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis Climate Change Information such as trends associated • EPA’s Climate Change Site with river flows, water levels in http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ reservoirs and conditions, water quality parameters, water Comprehensive information on the temperature, dissolved oxygen, issue of climate change, including salinity, and pH. science, U.S. climate policy, greenhouse emissions, health and environmental Surface Water Reservoirs effects, and what you can do. • Texas Water Development Board’s • United Nations Gateway to the UN Texas Water Conditions System’s Work on Climate Change http://www.twdb.state.tx.us/ http://www.un.org/climatechange/ publications/reports/waterconditions/ watercon.asp Climate change information from various UN agencies, featuring Information, current and historical, scientific reports from the UN, about the volumes of water stored developments on efforts to reach a in major surface water reservoirs new international climate change and information about trends related agreement, climate change events, to the amount of water stored in Texas news, webcasts, projects in the field, lakes. and climate change information for youth.

tx H2O | pg. 10 Groundwater Irrigation Scheduling • Texas Water Development Board’s Web-based information networks that Water Information Integration and present real-time data on potential evapo- Dissemination System Web site transpiration and other climate parameters http://wiid.twdb.state.tx.us to help urban and rural water users schedule irrigation. Detailed information about individual water wells. This system uses a • Texas Network geographic information system-based http://texaset.tamu.edu/ tool to show locations of water wells • North Plains Weather Network and download data on water levels and water quality. Reports that were http://amarillo2.tamu.edu/nppet/ developed about on-site conditions petnet1.htm before a well was drilled and installed • Texas High Plains Evapotranspiration can be downloaded. Network • U. S. Geological Survey’s http://txhighplainset.tamu.edu/ Groundwater Data for the Nation • Uvalde Research and Extension program Center’s Potential Evapotranspiration http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/gw Network A variety of groundwater data, http://uvalde.tamu.edu/ including information about current or • The Crop Weather Program, real-time groundwater levels as well Texas AgriLife Research and as daily, monthly, and annual data and Extension Center at Corpus Christi statistics. h t t p : // c w p . t a m u . e d u /

Climate change conference set Research; Connie Woodhouse of the University of Arizona’s Department of The River Systems Institute is hosting Geography and Regional Development, “Forecast: Climate Change – Impacts on Gerald North of Texas A&M University’s Texas Water,” April 28-30, 2008, at the Texas Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Bruce State Capitol Extension in Austin. McCarl of Texas A&M’s Department of The conference will take a comprehensive Agricultural Economics, and Ruby Leung look at what is known about climate change of the Pacific Northwest National Laborato- and what needs to be known to prepare for ries. the local impact on Texas water resources The conference is being co-hosted by and on the communities, both natural and Texas Water Resources Institute, an entity human, that depend on them. of Texas A&M AgriLife, and Environmental The conference will feature national Sciences Institute of The University of Texas climate change scientists who have con- at Austin. Co-sponsors include Guadalupe ducted cutting-edge work in the prediction – Blanco River Authority, Lower Colorado of global warming and the impending River Authority, Magnolia Charitable Trust, changes on the Earth’s climate and state The University of Texas’s Jackson School of scientists who are working to understand Geosciences, and U.S. Geological Survey. the impact on Texas and its water resources. For more information, visit Speakers include Drs. Warren Washing- http://www.rivers.txstate.edu/CCTW/ ton of the National Center for Atmospheric CCTW08index.htm.

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